Asset Valuation

Trade Value

Ranked by Trade Value Score: risk-adjusted surplus (value minus salary owed) times confidence. Top 100 hitters and top 100 pitchers by default; search, filter or Show all to reach up to 500 players. Badges: NTC (no-trade clause) · OPT (option year) · DEF (deferred money).

How to read a card
  1. Surplus is what he is worth minus what he is owed. We project his WAR? for each season the club controls him, price each win at $8M ($/WAR?), and subtract the salary still owed. Future wins and dollars are discounted? 10% a year.
  2. Risk-adjusted means no future is certain, so we run a bad, a typical and a good version of his career and weigh them 30 / 40 / 30. The ▼ and ▲ lines on each card are the bad and good ends. If the bad case loses money, we take a penalty for it.
  3. Confidence is the chance he pans out: the bust risk for his age and track record, times how close he is to the majors?.
  4. Trade value = risk-adjusted surplus × confidence, and the list is sorted by it. Team control is the years until free agency?. Full method →

Pick two players, or press + cmp on any card. Same numbers as the cards below.
View combined = one unified ranking across both — the same frame as industry trade-value lists

Hitters — Top 100

# Player · TV Score · WAR Trajectory & Stats Contract
#1
CHC · CF · 25y
+$162M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$30M+$210M▲+$377M
2027Ext$14M4.2+$34
2028Ext$18M5.8+$48
2029Ext$22M5.7+$41
2030Ext$25M5.5+$34
2031Ext$26M5.2+$29
2032CLU OPT·EXE$30M4.8+$22
TOT$105M26.4+$187
0.03.06.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB726 PA · .280/.372/.570 · 45 HR · 41 SB · 8.1 WAR
256/332/494  ·  21 HR  ·  23 SB  ·  5.2 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$210M
worth $293M, owed $83M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$180M
average case $+188M, less $8M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE89%
89% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
4.9 WAR a year on average
$+180M risk-adjusted × 89% confidence
= $+162M trade value
#2
DET · 3B · 22y
+$154M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$49M+$223M▲+$437M
2027Ext$2.8M4.4+$49
2028Ext$8.8M4.4+$40
2029Ext$18M4.7+$34
2030Ext$23M4.9+$30
2031Ext$24M4.9+$28
2032Ext$25M4.7+$24
2033Ext$25M4.4+$20
2034Ext$25M4.0+$14
TOT$150M36.4+$239
0.02.55.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB707 PA · .278/.376/.430 · 18 HR · 12 SB · 4.7 WAR
287/384/471  ·  20 HR  ·  11 SB  ·  4.6 WAR/yr
over 8 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$223M
worth $320M, owed $97M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$193M
average case $+205M, less $12M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE80%
80% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL8 yr
4.3 WAR a year on average
$+193M risk-adjusted × 80% confidence
= $+154M trade value
#3
KC · SS · 27y
+$131M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$96M+$166M▲+$390M
2027Ext$19M6.7+$61
2028Ext$30M6.3+$43
2029Ext$30M5.9+$37
2030Ext$30M5.4+$30
2031Ext$30M4.7+$22
2032Ext$30M4.0+$12
2033Ext$30M2.7-$2
2034Ext$30M1.7-$6
TOT$229M37.4+$197
0.03.57.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB632 PA · .281/.359/.441 · 18 HR · 45 SB · 5.0 WAR
282/340/468  ·  22 HR  ·  27 SB  ·  4.7 WAR/yr
over 8 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$166M
worth $326M, owed $160M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$131M
average case $+155M, less $24M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE100%
100% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL8 yr
4.2 WAR a year on average
$+131M risk-adjusted × 100% confidence
= $+131M trade value
#4
WSH · RF · 24y
+$105M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$1M+$120M▲+$236M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M4.1+$45
2028Arb-1$9.5M4.1+$34
2029Arb-2$16M4.1+$26
2030Arb-3$24M4.0+$17
TOT$51M16.3+$123
0.02.04.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB623 PA · .265/.388/.503 · 30 HR · 21 SB · 4.0 WAR
257/367/508  ·  33 HR  ·  19 SB  ·  4.1 WAR/yr
over 4 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$120M
worth $160M, owed $40M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$119M
average case $+119M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE88%
88% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL4 yr
4.0 WAR a year on average
$+119M risk-adjusted × 88% confidence
= $+105M trade value
#5
ARI · RF · 26y
+$101M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$21M+$100M▲+$250M
2027Ext$14M4.4+$38
2028Ext$16M3.9+$25
2029Ext$18M3.6+$17
2030Ext$20M3.2+$10
2031CLU OPT·EXE$22M2.6+$1
TOT$67M15.1+$90
0.02.55.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB671 PA · .239/.328/.467 · 22 HR · 21 SB · 1.9 WAR
245/332/475  ·  24 HR  ·  34 SB  ·  3.5 WAR/yr
over 5 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$100M
worth $157M, owed $57M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$104M
average case $+109M, less $5M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE98%
98% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
3.4 WAR a year on average
$+104M risk-adjusted × 98% confidence
= $+101M trade value
#6
MIL · CF · 23y
+$100M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$17M+$108M▲+$264M
2027Ext$9.0M3.7+$29
2028Ext$11M3.6+$24
2029Ext$13M3.7+$23
2030Ext$15M3.7+$20
2031Ext$16M3.6+$17
TOT$64M18.3+$112
0.02.04.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB573 PA · .291/.351/.487 · 25 HR · 23 SB · 4.0 WAR
281/336/473  ·  24 HR  ·  33 SB  ·  3.7 WAR/yr
over 5 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$108M
worth $159M, owed $51M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$113M
average case $+117M, less $4M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE89%
89% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
3.6 WAR a year on average
$+113M risk-adjusted × 89% confidence
= $+100M trade value
#7
TB · 3B · 24y
+$100M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$2M+$114M▲+$234M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M4.2+$47
2028Arb-1$8.9M3.9+$31
2029Arb-2$15M3.9+$24
2030Arb-3$23M3.8+$15
TOT$48M15.8+$117
0.02.55.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB702 PA · .276/.360/.524 · 42 HR · 3 SB · 4.9 WAR
268/337/512  ·  36 HR  ·  4 SB  ·  4.0 WAR/yr
over 4 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$114M
worth $152M, owed $38M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$115M
average case $+115M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE87%
87% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL4 yr
3.9 WAR a year on average
$+115M risk-adjusted × 87% confidence
= $+100M trade value
#8
CIN · SS · 25y
+$96M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$6M+$115M▲+$194M
2027Arb-1$11M5.3+$53
2028Arb-2$19M4.9+$37
2029Arb-3$28M4.8+$26
TOT$58M15.0+$117
0.03.06.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB636 PA · .283/.365/.515 · 30 HR · 30 SB · 5.5 WAR
270/349/491  ·  28 HR  ·  35 SB  ·  5.0 WAR/yr
over 3 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$115M
worth $165M, owed $50M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$101M
average case $+102M, less $2M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE95%
95% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
4.9 WAR a year on average
$+101M risk-adjusted × 95% confidence
= $+96M trade value
#9
KC · C · 24y
+$81M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$8M+$81M▲+$225M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M3.1+$28
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2.8+$22
2029Arb-1$5.9M2.8+$16
2030Arb-2$10M2.8+$12
2031Arb-3$15M2.6+$6
TOT$32M14.1+$83
0.02.04.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB603 PA · .239/.323/.467 · 27 HR · 2 SB · 4.4 WAR
237/324/445  ·  20 HR  ·  3 SB  ·  2.8 WAR/yr
over 5 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$81M
worth $104M, owed $23M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$102M
average case $+102M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE80%
80% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
2.7 WAR a year on average
$+102M risk-adjusted × 80% confidence
= $+81M trade value
#10
MIN · 2B · 24y
+$81M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$7M+$79M▲+$223M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M3.1+$28
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2.9+$23
2029Arb-1$7.2M2.9+$16
2030Arb-2$12M2.8+$10
2031Arb-3$17M2.5+$4
TOT$38M14.2+$81
0.02.04.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB620 PA · .282/.374/.407 · 10 HR · 20 SB · 3.5 WAR
271/365/390  ·  9 HR  ·  25 SB  ·  2.8 WAR/yr
over 5 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$79M
worth $105M, owed $26M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$101M
average case $+101M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE81%
81% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
2.8 WAR a year on average
$+101M risk-adjusted × 81% confidence
= $+81M trade value
#11
ATL · C · 26y
+$80M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$14M+$80M▲+$201M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M3.6+$36
2028Arb-1$6.3M3.2+$22
2029Arb-2$10M3.0+$15
2030Arb-3$15M2.8+$9
TOT$32M12.6+$82
0.02.04.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB615 PA · .284/.358/.459 · 25 HR · 3 SB · 4.9 WAR
273/345/463  ·  19 HR  ·  1 SB  ·  3.1 WAR/yr
over 4 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$80M
worth $104M, owed $24M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$97M
average case $+97M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE83%
83% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL4 yr
3.1 WAR a year on average
$+97M risk-adjusted × 83% confidence
= $+80M trade value
#12
JJ Wetherholt OPT
STL · 2B · 24y
+$79M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$47M+$85M▲+$307M
2027Ext$5.0M3.6+$32
2028Ext$10M3.3+$20
2029Ext$14M3.3+$16
2030Ext$17M3.2+$12
2031Ext$19M2.9+$6
2032Ext$21M2.6+$2
2033Ext$24M2.2-$2
2034CLU OPT·DEC$28M1.8—
TOT$110M21.1+$86
0.02.04.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB619 PA · .242/.339/.365 · 17 HR · 14 SB · 2.6 WAR
259/352/399  ·  18 HR  ·  10 SB  ·  2.9 WAR/yr
over 8 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$85M
worth $161M, owed $76M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$100M
average case $+112M, less $12M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE79%
79% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL8 yr
2.6 WAR a year on average
$+100M risk-adjusted × 79% confidence
= $+79M trade value
#13
MIL · SS · 20y
+$74M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$85M▲+$285M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.8—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.4+$10
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2.3+$15
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2.9+$20
2031Arb-1$8.8M3.3+$18
2032Arb-2$16M3.6+$16
2033Arb-3$24M3.7+$12
TOT$51M17.2+$89
0.02.04.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AA/INTL593 PA · .273/.349/.429 · 15 HR · 39 SB
269/335/449  ·  20 HR  ·  21 SB  ·  2.9 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$85M
worth $113M, owed $28M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$119M
average case $+119M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE62%
62% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
2.7 WAR a year on average
$+119M risk-adjusted × 62% confidence
= $+74M trade value
#14
NYM · CF · 22y
+$74M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$2M+$71M▲+$219M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2.6+$21
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2.3+$16
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2.5+$17
2030Arb-1$7.0M2.5+$11
2031Arb-2$12M2.5+$7
2032Arb-3$18M2.4+$3
TOT$39M14.8+$74
0.01.53.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA/AA132 PA · .339/.447/.514 · 2 HR · 17 SB
MLB492 PA · .252/.324/.376 · 11 HR · 25 SB · 1.6 WAR
251/328/377  ·  13 HR  ·  39 SB  ·  2.5 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$71M
worth $96M, owed $25M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$95M
average case $+95M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE78%
78% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
2.4 WAR a year on average
$+95M risk-adjusted × 78% confidence
= $+74M trade value
#15
ATL · CF · 26y
+$72M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$12M+$60M▲+$187M
2027Ext$9.0M3.3+$23
2028Ext$10M2.9+$15
2029Ext$11M2.6+$9
2030Ext$12M2.3+$6
2031CLU OPT·EXE$14M1.9+$2
TOT$42M11.1+$53
0.02.04.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB621 PA · .294/.321/.491 · 26 HR · 12 SB · 3.8 WAR
277/304/464  ·  24 HR  ·  11 SB  ·  2.6 WAR/yr
over 5 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$60M
worth $96M, owed $36M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$74M
average case $+77M, less $3M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE97%
97% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
2.5 WAR a year on average
$+74M risk-adjusted × 97% confidence
= $+72M trade value
#16
NYY · 1B · 28y
+$70M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$6M+$91M▲+$212M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M4.3+$49
2028Arb-1$8.4M3.6+$26
2029Arb-2$13M3.1+$14
2030Arb-3$16M2.6+$5
TOT$39M13.6+$94
0.02.55.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB667 PA · .264/.363/.534 · 41 HR · 3 SB · 3.6 WAR
260/352/517  ·  35 HR  ·  2 SB  ·  3.4 WAR/yr
over 4 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$91M
worth $121M, owed $30M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$101M
average case $+101M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE69%
69% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL4 yr
3.2 WAR a year on average
$+101M risk-adjusted × 69% confidence
= $+70M trade value
#17
STL · C · 20y
+$66M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$77M▲+$298M
2027MiLB$0.0M1.4—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.9+$13
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2.5+$17
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2.9+$20
2031Arb-1$7.6M2.9+$14
2032Arb-2$13M3.0+$11
2033Arb-3$19M2.9+$6
TOT$42M16.1+$81
0.01.53.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AA/A+530 PA · .324/.413/.574 · 27 HR · 11 SB
264/346/484  ·  21 HR  ·  8 SB  ·  2.7 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$77M
worth $100M, owed $23M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$120M
average case $+120M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE55%
55% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
2.5 WAR a year on average
$+120M risk-adjusted × 55% confidence
= $+66M trade value
#18
PIT · SS · 21y
+$66M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$69M+$99M▲+$301M
2027Ext$3.0M1.5+$9
2028Ext$5.0M2.3+$13
2029Ext$10M3.2+$18
2030Ext$15M3.7+$20
2031Ext$20M4.0+$19
2032Ext$25M4.0+$15
2033Ext$30M3.8+$10
2034Ext$30M3.5+$6
TOT$138M26.0+$110
0.02.04.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA31 PA · .375/.516/.500 · 0 HR · 3 SB
MLB339 PA · .272/.324/.404 · 6 HR · 23 SB · 1.6 WAR
273/336/458  ·  23 HR  ·  42 SB  ·  3.2 WAR/yr
over 8 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$99M
worth $184M, owed $84M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$92M
average case $+109M, less $17M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE72%
72% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL8 yr
3.1 WAR a year on average
$+92M risk-adjusted × 72% confidence
= $+66M trade value
#19
WSH · SS · 19y
+$66M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$81M▲+$289M
2027MiLB$0.0M1.1—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.6+$11
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2.4+$16
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2.9+$20
2031Arb-1$8.6M3.2+$17
2032Arb-2$15M3.3+$13
2033Arb-3$23M3.4+$9
TOT$49M16.8+$85
0.02.04.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AA/A+/A538 PA · .265/.406/.463 · 14 HR · 62 SB
252/345/425  ·  18 HR  ·  17 SB  ·  2.8 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$81M
worth $108M, owed $27M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$119M
average case $+119M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE55%
55% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
2.6 WAR a year on average
$+119M risk-adjusted × 55% confidence
= $+66M trade value
#20
OAK · SS · 20y
+$65M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$66M▲+$263M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.8—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.3+$9
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2.0+$13
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2.6+$16
2031Arb-1$7.8M2.9+$14
2032Arb-2$14M3.0+$10
2033Arb-3$20M3.1+$7
TOT$44M14.9+$70
0.02.04.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AA428 PA · .290/.378/.458 · 13 HR · 34 SB
254/329/437  ·  22 HR  ·  18 SB  ·  2.5 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$66M
worth $90M, owed $24M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$105M
average case $+105M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE62%
62% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
2.3 WAR a year on average
$+105M risk-adjusted × 62% confidence
= $+65M trade value
#21
MIL · SS · 22y
+$63M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$21M+$79M▲+$246M
2027Ext$2.0M1.3+$8
2028Ext$4.0M2.2+$13
2029Ext$5.5M2.6+$14
2030Ext$7.0M3.0+$16
2031Ext$9.0M3.0+$14
2032Ext$10M2.9+$12
2033Ext$12M2.6+$7
TOT$50M17.6+$84
0.01.53.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA261 PA · .241/.349/.386 · 6 HR · 17 SB
MLB266 PA · .281/.350/.368 · 3 HR · 19 SB · 1.6 WAR
254/332/380  ·  13 HR  ·  35 SB  ·  2.5 WAR/yr
over 7 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$79M
worth $112M, owed $34M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$94M
average case $+99M, less $5M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE67%
67% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL7 yr
2.4 WAR a year on average
$+94M risk-adjusted × 67% confidence
= $+63M trade value
#22
OAK · OF · 23y
+$62M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$2M+$63M▲+$188M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.9+$14
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2.2+$16
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2.4+$16
2030Arb-1$7.2M2.6+$12
2031Arb-2$12M2.4+$6
2032Arb-3$16M2.1+$2
TOT$38M13.6+$66
0.01.53.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA177 PA · .348/.418/.658 · 12 HR · 17 SB
MLB473 PA · .277/.359/.405 · 11 HR · 21 SB · 1.6 WAR
252/333/401  ·  19 HR  ·  45 SB  ·  2.3 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$63M
worth $88M, owed $24M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$80M
average case $+81M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE77%
77% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
2.2 WAR a year on average
$+80M risk-adjusted × 77% confidence
= $+62M trade value
#23
ARI · SS · 27y
+$61M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$9M+$47M▲+$162M
2027Ext$11M3.4+$22
2028Ext$11M2.8+$12
2029Ext$11M2.5+$8
2030CLU OPT·EXE$11M2.1+$5
2031CLU OPT·EXE$15M1.7+$0
TOT$34M8.7+$42
0.02.04.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB680 PA · .262/.370/.377 · 9 HR · 21 SB · 3.1 WAR
249/357/360  ·  10 HR  ·  13 SB  ·  2.5 WAR/yr
over 5 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$47M
worth $95M, owed $48M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$62M
average case $+64M, less $2M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE98%
98% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
2.5 WAR a year on average
$+62M risk-adjusted × 98% confidence
= $+61M trade value
#24
DET · C · 28y
+$61M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$6M+$75M▲+$196M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M3.7+$38
2028Arb-1$6.3M3.1+$21
2029Arb-2$9.9M2.9+$14
2030Arb-3$13M2.5+$6
TOT$30M12.2+$79
0.02.04.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB607 PA · .243/.302/.446 · 27 HR · 0 SB · 3.8 WAR
258/316/439  ·  16 HR  ·  0 SB  ·  3.0 WAR/yr
over 4 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$75M
worth $99M, owed $23M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$91M
average case $+91M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE67%
67% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL4 yr
2.9 WAR a year on average
$+91M risk-adjusted × 67% confidence
= $+61M trade value
#25
CLE · RF · 25y
+$61M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$11M+$61M▲+$165M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2.8+$23
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2.4+$17
2029Arb-1$5.7M2.4+$12
2030Arb-2$8.8M2.1+$7
2031Arb-3$12M1.8+$3
TOT$28M11.5+$62
0.01.53.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB559 PA · .287/.363/.457 · 16 HR · 11 SB · 2.9 WAR
279/357/455  ·  15 HR  ·  7 SB  ·  2.3 WAR/yr
over 5 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$61M
worth $80M, owed $19M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$77M
average case $+77M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE79%
79% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
2.2 WAR a year on average
$+77M risk-adjusted × 79% confidence
= $+61M trade value
#26
CWS · LF · 24y
+$61M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$7M+$67M▲+$161M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M3.0+$26
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2.1+$15
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2.0+$13
2030Arb-1$5.2M1.9+$8
2031Arb-2$7.9M1.7+$5
2032Arb-3$9.8M1.3+$1
TOT$25M12.0+$69
0.01.53.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA67 PA · .312/.500/.479 · 2 HR · 5 SB
MLB557 PA · .277/.370/.396 · 8 HR · 20 SB · 2.0 WAR
270/364/390  ·  10 HR  ·  21 SB  ·  2.0 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$67M
worth $83M, owed $16M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$77M
average case $+77M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE79%
79% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
1.9 WAR a year on average
$+77M risk-adjusted × 79% confidence
= $+61M trade value
#27
MIA · SS · 28y
+$60M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$5M+$56M▲+$146M
2027Arb-1$7.8M3.9+$34
2028Arb-2$13M3.2+$16
2029Arb-3$18M2.8+$6
TOT$39M9.9+$57
0.02.04.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB687 PA · .305/.349/.437 · 11 HR · 34 SB · 5.4 WAR
285/336/418  ·  12 HR  ·  24 SB  ·  3.3 WAR/yr
over 3 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$56M
worth $89M, owed $33M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$68M
average case $+68M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE89%
89% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
3.2 WAR a year on average
$+68M risk-adjusted × 89% confidence
= $+60M trade value
#28
NYM · RF · 24y
+$60M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$11M+$59M▲+$162M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2.8+$23
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2.3+$16
2029Arb-1$6.2M2.3+$11
2030Arb-2$9.9M2.2+$7
2031Arb-3$13M1.9+$2
TOT$31M11.5+$60
0.01.53.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB654 PA · .282/.346/.430 · 20 HR · 22 SB · 3.1 WAR
271/339/420  ·  18 HR  ·  25 SB  ·  2.3 WAR/yr
over 5 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$59M
worth $80M, owed $22M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$75M
average case $+75M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE79%
79% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
2.2 WAR a year on average
$+75M risk-adjusted × 79% confidence
= $+60M trade value
#29
SD · CF · 24y
+$59M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$60M+$52M▲+$263M
2027Ext$15M2.8+$9
2028Ext$15M3.2+$14
2029Ext$15M3.2+$14
2030Ext$15M3.0+$11
2031Ext$15M2.7+$7
2032Ext$15M2.3+$4
2033Ext$15M2.0+$2
2034Ext$15M1.4-$1
2035CLU OPT·DEC$15M0.9—
TOT$120M20.6+$60
0.02.04.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB664 PA · .254/.303/.440 · 26 HR · 27 SB · 2.6 WAR
259/306/441  ·  18 HR  ·  15 SB  ·  2.2 WAR/yr
over 10 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$52M
worth $137M, owed $85M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$66M
average case $+82M, less $15M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE89%
89% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL8 yr
2.4 WAR a year on average
$+66M risk-adjusted × 89% confidence
= $+59M trade value
#30
LAD · CF · 22y
+$58M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$15M+$71M▲+$274M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.2+$9
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2.1+$15
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2.8+$20
2030Arb-1$9.8M3.1+$16
2031Arb-2$17M3.2+$11
2032Arb-3$25M3.0+$4
TOT$54M15.4+$74
0.02.04.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AA588 PA · .303/.401/.547 · 27 HR · 31 SB
MLB42 PA · .323/.500/.581 · 1 HR · 1 SB · 0.9 WAR
269/354/474  ·  25 HR  ·  22 SB  ·  2.6 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$71M
worth $105M, owed $34M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$102M
average case $+106M, less $4M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE57%
57% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
2.4 WAR a year on average
$+102M risk-adjusted × 57% confidence
= $+58M trade value
#31
SF · 1B · 22y
+$58M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$11M+$63M▲+$189M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.5+$11
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.9+$13
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2.4+$16
2030Arb-1$6.9M2.6+$12
2031Arb-2$12M2.8+$10
2032Arb-3$18M2.6+$4
TOT$40M13.8+$66
0.01.53.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA137 PA · .333/.445/.518 · 5 HR · 0 SB
MLB448 PA · .269/.364/.461 · 17 HR · 1 SB · 2.0 WAR
258/351/465  ·  27 HR  ·  3 SB  ·  2.3 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$63M
worth $88M, owed $26M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$76M
average case $+78M, less $3M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE77%
77% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
2.2 WAR a year on average
$+76M risk-adjusted × 77% confidence
= $+58M trade value
#32
LAD · CF · 26y
+$58M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$2M+$50M▲+$154M
2027Arb-1$4.3M3.0+$23
2028Arb-2$6.8M2.8+$16
2029Arb-3$11M2.5+$9
2030Arb-4$14M2.2+$4
TOT$36M10.5+$51
0.01.53.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB574 PA · .274/.343/.468 · 23 HR · 13 SB · 3.7 WAR
265/326/448  ·  22 HR  ·  10 SB  ·  2.6 WAR/yr
over 4 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$50M
worth $79M, owed $29M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$65M
average case $+66M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE88%
88% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL4 yr
2.5 WAR a year on average
$+65M risk-adjusted × 88% confidence
= $+58M trade value
#33
CWS · 3B · 21y
+$57M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$60M▲+$266M
2027MiLB$0.0M1.2—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.5+$10
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2.2+$14
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2.6+$16
2031Arb-1$7.2M2.6+$11
2032Arb-2$12M2.6+$7
2033Arb-3$17M2.5+$3
TOT$39M14.0+$63
0.01.53.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AA/A+/INTL650 PA · .254/.378/.558 · 40 HR · 17 SB
237/329/467  ·  28 HR  ·  12 SB  ·  2.3 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$60M
worth $82M, owed $22M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$104M
average case $+104M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE55%
55% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
2.2 WAR a year on average
$+104M risk-adjusted × 55% confidence
= $+57M trade value
#34
Maikel Garcia OPT
KC · 3B · 27y
+$57M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$18M+$46M▲+$176M
2027Ext$12M2.4+$8
2028Ext$12M3.3+$19
2029Ext$12M2.9+$13
2030Ext$12M2.5+$8
2031CLU OPT·EXE$12M1.9+$4
2032CLU OPT·DEC$21M1.4—
TOT$46M11.1+$47
0.02.04.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AA16 PA · .308/.438/.385 · 0 HR · 1 SB
MLB344 PA · .268/.334/.381 · 3 HR · 5 SB · 1.4 WAR
267/335/392  ·  9 HR  ·  11 SB  ·  2.6 WAR/yr
over 5 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$46M
worth $94M, owed $49M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$61M
average case $+66M, less $4M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE93%
93% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
2.5 WAR a year on average
$+61M risk-adjusted × 93% confidence
= $+57M trade value
#35
TB · CF · 21y
+$55M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$57M▲+$258M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.9—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.4+$10
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2.1+$14
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2.5+$15
2031Arb-1$7.4M2.6+$11
2032Arb-2$13M2.6+$7
2033Arb-3$18M2.5+$3
TOT$41M13.7+$60
0.01.53.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AA/A+533 PA · .315/.419/.546 · 22 HR · 44 SB
255/341/442  ·  22 HR  ·  19 SB  ·  2.3 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$57M
worth $79M, owed $22M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$100M
average case $+100M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE55%
55% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
2.1 WAR a year on average
$+100M risk-adjusted × 55% confidence
= $+55M trade value
#36
CWS · SS · 25y
+$55M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$4M+$55M▲+$146M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2.7+$22
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2.3+$16
2029Arb-1$5.5M2.2+$11
2030Arb-2$8.4M1.9+$6
2031Arb-3$11M1.6+$2
TOT$27M10.7+$57
0.01.53.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB638 PA · .197/.282/.403 · 31 HR · 1 SB · 1.6 WAR
204/285/420  ·  31 HR  ·  1 SB  ·  2.1 WAR/yr
over 5 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$55M
worth $74M, owed $19M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$67M
average case $+67M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE82%
82% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
2.1 WAR a year on average
$+67M risk-adjusted × 82% confidence
= $+55M trade value
#37
BOS · SS · 21y
+$53M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$87M▲+$312M
2027MiLB$0.0M1.3—
2028MiLB$0.0M1.8—
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2.7+$19
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M3.0+$21
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M3.2+$22
2032Arb-1$8.8M3.2+$15
2033Arb-2$14M3.1+$10
2034Arb-3$20M2.9+$6
TOT$46M18.1+$93
0.02.04.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA/AA520 PA · .323/.400/.557 · 25 HR · 9 SB
275/335/453  ·  22 HR  ·  10 SB  ·  3.0 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$87M
worth $110M, owed $22M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$128M
average case $+128M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE41%
41% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
2.8 WAR a year on average
$+128M risk-adjusted × 41% confidence
= $+53M trade value
#38
HOU · LF · 30y
+$52M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$11M+$59M▲+$116M
2027Ext$20M4.5+$34
2028Ext$20M4.2+$27
TOT$39M8.7+$61
0.02.55.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB692 PA · .316/.432/.601 · 42 HR · 1 SB · 6.2 WAR
292/377/550  ·  35 HR  ·  2 SB  ·  4.3 WAR/yr
over 2 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$59M
worth $96M, owed $37M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$52M
average case $+55M, less $3M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE100%
100% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL2 yr
4.2 WAR a year on average
$+52M risk-adjusted × 100% confidence
= $+52M trade value
#39
ARI · C · 27y
+$51M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$6M+$63M▲+$119M
2027Arb-2$14M4.5+$40
2028Arb-3$20M4.0+$23
TOT$33M8.5+$63
0.02.55.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB549 PA · .311/.388/.486 · 16 HR · 6 SB · 5.2 WAR
286/369/444  ·  12 HR  ·  4 SB  ·  4.2 WAR/yr
over 2 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$63M
worth $94M, owed $31M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$58M
average case $+59M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE88%
88% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL2 yr
4.2 WAR a year on average
$+58M risk-adjusted × 88% confidence
= $+51M trade value
#40
MIA · CF · 26y
+$51M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$4M+$52M▲+$135M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2.7+$22
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2.3+$16
2029Arb-1$5.5M2.1+$10
2030Arb-2$8.4M1.7+$5
2031Arb-3$11M1.4+$1
TOT$26M10.2+$54
0.01.53.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB616 PA · .231/.348/.359 · 11 HR · 23 SB · 2.2 WAR
233/336/366  ·  11 HR  ·  25 SB  ·  2.0 WAR/yr
over 5 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$52M
worth $71M, owed $18M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$63M
average case $+63M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE81%
81% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
2.0 WAR a year on average
$+63M risk-adjusted × 81% confidence
= $+51M trade value
#41
CIN · 1B · 23y
+$50M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$4M+$55M▲+$131M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M3.1+$28
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.7+$12
2029Arb-1$4.7M1.8+$9
2030Arb-2$8.1M1.8+$6
2031Arb-3$12M1.7+$2
TOT$26M10.1+$56
0.02.04.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB700 PA · .263/.330/.457 · 32 HR · 15 SB · 1.0 WAR
261/330/452  ·  28 HR  ·  12 SB  ·  2.0 WAR/yr
over 5 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$55M
worth $73M, owed $18M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$63M
average case $+63M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE80%
80% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
2.0 WAR a year on average
$+63M risk-adjusted × 80% confidence
= $+50M trade value
#42
MIL · 2B · 27y
+$50M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$5M+$42M▲+$127M
2027Arb-1$6.4M3.2+$24
2028Arb-2$11M2.9+$14
2029Arb-3$15M2.5+$5
TOT$32M8.6+$43
0.02.04.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB680 PA · .268/.366/.450 · 21 HR · 19 SB · 4.5 WAR
260/344/411  ·  15 HR  ·  24 SB  ·  2.9 WAR/yr
over 3 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$42M
worth $70M, owed $28M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$52M
average case $+53M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE95%
95% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
2.8 WAR a year on average
$+52M risk-adjusted × 95% confidence
= $+50M trade value
#43
CIN · C · 21y
+$48M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$50M▲+$222M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.9—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.2+$8
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.8+$12
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2.1+$13
2031Arb-1$6.2M2.3+$10
2032Arb-2$10M2.3+$6
2033Arb-3$15M2.3+$4
TOT$34M12.0+$52
0.01.42.8273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AA/A+/INTL476 PA · .271/.389/.485 · 20 HR · 5 SB
231/326/432  ·  19 HR  ·  5 SB  ·  2.0 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$50M
worth $69M, owed $19M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$86M
average case $+86M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE55%
55% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
1.9 WAR a year on average
$+86M risk-adjusted × 55% confidence
= $+48M trade value
#44
KC · RF · 24y
+$47M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$2M+$50M▲+$131M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2.2+$17
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2.2+$16
2029Arb-1$5.3M2.1+$10
2030Arb-2$8.8M2.0+$6
2031Arb-3$12M1.8+$3
TOT$28M10.3+$51
0.01.42.7273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB553 PA · .289/.340/.494 · 23 HR · 7 SB · 3.3 WAR
274/331/492  ·  23 HR  ·  6 SB  ·  2.1 WAR/yr
over 5 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$50M
worth $70M, owed $20M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$58M
average case $+59M, less $0M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE81%
81% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
2.0 WAR a year on average
$+58M risk-adjusted × 81% confidence
= $+47M trade value
#45
Cal Raleigh NTC OPT
SEA · C · 30y
+$47M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$37M+$42M▲+$167M
2027Ext$18M4.0+$26
2028Ext$18M3.1+$11
2029Ext$18M2.6+$4
2030Ext$18M2.1+$1
2031VES OPT·DEC$18M1.4—
TOT$70M11.8+$42
0.02.04.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA17 PA · .429/.529/1.500 · 5 HR · 0 SB
MLB530 PA · .182/.296/.368 · 23 HR · 2 SB · 2.0 WAR
203/307/437  ·  25 HR  ·  2 SB  ·  2.6 WAR/yr
over 5 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$42M
worth $103M, owed $61M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$47M
average case $+56M, less $9M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE100%
100% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
2.4 WAR a year on average
$+47M risk-adjusted × 100% confidence
= $+47M trade value
#46
CLE · 2B · 24y
+$47M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$54M▲+$127M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.9+$14
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2.1+$15
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2.0+$13
2030Arb-1$5.2M1.8+$8
2031Arb-2$7.9M1.6+$4
2032Arb-3$9.8M1.3+$1
TOT$25M10.7+$56
0.01.32.6273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA117 PA · .287/.422/.511 · 2 HR · 8 SB
MLB517 PA · .245/.335/.408 · 15 HR · 19 SB · 2.2 WAR
235/331/387  ·  15 HR  ·  21 SB  ·  1.8 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$54M
worth $70M, owed $16M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$60M
average case $+60M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE78%
78% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
1.7 WAR a year on average
$+60M risk-adjusted × 78% confidence
= $+47M trade value
#47
SD · RF · 28y
+$46M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$98M+$77M▲+$228M
2027Ext$24M5.2+$38
2028Ext$24M4.4+$26
2029Ext$24M4.0+$18
2030Ext$24M3.5+$10
2031Ext$24M2.9+$3
2032Ext$24M1.7-$5
2033Ext$24M0.8-$11
2034Ext$24M0.0-$12
TOT$194M22.5+$68
0.03.06.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB704 PA · .289/.358/.470 · 25 HR · 38 SB · 4.0 WAR
267/341/441  ·  23 HR  ·  14 SB  ·  3.2 WAR/yr
over 8 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$77M
worth $191M, owed $114M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$46M
average case $+70M, less $24M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE100%
100% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
3.3 WAR a year on average
$+46M risk-adjusted × 100% confidence
= $+46M trade value
#48
CWS · 3B · 27y
+$45M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$6M+$39M▲+$124M
2027Arb-1$6.0M3.0+$21
2028Arb-2$10M2.8+$13
2029Arb-3$14M2.5+$6
TOT$30M8.3+$40
0.01.53.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB704 PA · .250/.363/.474 · 33 HR · 22 SB · 4.8 WAR
244/349/441  ·  21 HR  ·  13 SB  ·  2.8 WAR/yr
over 3 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$39M
worth $65M, owed $26M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$50M
average case $+51M, less $2M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE90%
90% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
2.7 WAR a year on average
$+50M risk-adjusted × 90% confidence
= $+45M trade value
#49
DET · CF · 22y
+$44M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$8M+$50M▲+$175M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M0.8+$2
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2.2+$16
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2.5+$17
2030Arb-1$8.3M2.7+$12
2031Arb-2$14M2.7+$7
2032Arb-3$21M2.5+$1
TOT$46M13.4+$55
0.01.53.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA418 PA · .276/.368/.434 · 11 HR · 21 SB
MLB206 PA · .272/.350/.417 · 3 HR · 5 SB · 1.1 WAR
258/334/409  ·  16 HR  ·  26 SB  ·  2.2 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$50M
worth $78M, owed $29M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$68M
average case $+70M, less $2M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE64%
64% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
2.4 WAR a year on average
$+68M risk-adjusted × 64% confidence
= $+44M trade value
#50
SEA · SS · 22y
+$42M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$12M+$43M▲+$211M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.0+$7
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.5+$10
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2.1+$14
2030Arb-1$8.1M2.3+$9
2031Arb-2$14M2.4+$5
2032Arb-3$20M2.2+$0
TOT$45M11.5+$45
0.01.53.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA/AA532 PA · .283/.359/.471 · 18 HR · 17 SB
MLB41 PA · .371/.439/.514 · 1 HR · 2 SB · 1.1 WAR
259/335/421  ·  19 HR  ·  16 SB  ·  1.9 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$43M
worth $72M, owed $28M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$74M
average case $+77M, less $3M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE57%
57% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
1.8 WAR a year on average
$+74M risk-adjusted × 57% confidence
= $+42M trade value
#51
WSH · LF · 24y
+$41M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$2M+$45M▲+$110M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.6+$12
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2.1+$15
2029Arb-1$4.9M2.1+$10
2030Arb-2$8.1M1.9+$6
2031Arb-3$11M1.6+$2
TOT$25M9.3+$46
0.01.32.6273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB655 PA · .246/.296/.429 · 22 HR · 15 SB · 0.9 WAR
263/317/444  ·  16 HR  ·  28 SB  ·  1.9 WAR/yr
over 5 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$45M
worth $63M, owed $18M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$50M
average case $+50M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE82%
82% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.8 WAR a year on average
$+50M risk-adjusted × 82% confidence
= $+41M trade value
#52
BOS · RF · 28y
+$40M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$4M+$35M▲+$111M
2027Arb-1$5.8M2.9+$20
2028Arb-2$9.0M2.6+$12
2029Arb-3$12M2.2+$5
TOT$27M7.7+$37
0.01.53.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB681 PA · .248/.327/.446 · 24 HR · 8 SB · 1.6 WAR
245/320/445  ·  21 HR  ·  6 SB  ·  2.6 WAR/yr
over 3 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$35M
worth $59M, owed $24M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$45M
average case $+46M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE88%
88% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
2.5 WAR a year on average
$+45M risk-adjusted × 88% confidence
= $+40M trade value
#53
MIL · C · 29y
+$40M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$3M+$24M▲+$106M
2027Arb-3$14M3.1+$15
2028CLU OPT·EXE$16M2.5+$5
2029CLU OPT·EXE$14M2.1+$3
2030CLU OPT·EXE$12M1.6+$1
TOT$14M3.1+$15
0.02.04.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB640 PA · .270/.341/.417 · 18 HR · 1 SB · 3.5 WAR
263/341/411  ·  12 HR  ·  2 SB  ·  2.3 WAR/yr
over 4 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$24M
worth $72M, owed $48M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$40M
average case $+40M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE100%
100% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL4 yr
2.3 WAR a year on average
$+40M risk-adjusted × 100% confidence
= $+40M trade value
#54
SD · C · 21y
+$40M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$10M+$43M▲+$193M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.0+$7
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.2+$8
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.8+$12
2030Arb-1$6.1M2.1+$9
2031Arb-2$11M2.3+$6
2032Arb-3$17M2.3+$3
TOT$36M10.7+$45
0.01.42.8273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA/AA405 PA · .296/.374/.448 · 10 HR · 17 SB
MLB40 PA · .256/.275/.462 · 2 HR · 0 SB · 0.9 WAR
256/320/404  ·  12 HR  ·  13 SB  ·  1.8 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$43M
worth $66M, owed $23M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$70M
average case $+72M, less $2M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE57%
57% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
1.7 WAR a year on average
$+70M risk-adjusted × 57% confidence
= $+40M trade value
#55
PIT · 3B · 23y
+$40M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$50M▲+$227M
2027MiLB$0.0M1.4—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.3+$9
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2.0+$13
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2.3+$14
2031Arb-1$7.2M2.3+$9
2032Arb-2$11M2.2+$5
2033Arb-3$14M1.9+$2
TOT$35M12.0+$52
0.01.42.8273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AA/A+/A558 PA · .305/.402/.567 · 32 HR · 5 SB
265/341/467  ·  24 HR  ·  6 SB  ·  2.0 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$50M
worth $69M, owed $19M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$88M
average case $+88M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE45%
45% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
1.9 WAR a year on average
$+88M risk-adjusted × 45% confidence
= $+40M trade value
#56
BAL · C · 22y
+$40M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$33M+$48M▲+$166M
2027Ext$8.4M1.7+$5
2028Ext$8.4M1.7+$5
2029Ext$8.4M1.9+$6
2030Ext$8.4M2.0+$7
2031Ext$8.4M2.0+$6
2032Ext$8.4M2.0+$6
2033Ext$8.4M1.8+$5
2034CLU OPT·EXE$8.4M1.6+$4
2035CLU OPT·DEC$18M1.4—
TOT$59M13.1+$40
0.01.22.5273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB399 PA · .222/.291/.406 · 18 HR · 0 SB · 1.0 WAR
234/305/444  ·  22 HR  ·  1 SB  ·  1.8 WAR/yr
over 9 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$48M
worth $91M, owed $44M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$50M
average case $+59M, less $8M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE78%
78% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL9 yr
1.7 WAR a year on average
$+50M risk-adjusted × 78% confidence
= $+40M trade value
#57
TOR · SS · 20y
+$39M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$60M▲+$270M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.9—
2028MiLB$0.0M1.1—
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.8+$12
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2.4+$15
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2.6+$15
2032Arb-1$8.0M2.7+$11
2033Arb-2$14M2.8+$8
2034Arb-3$20M2.7+$4
TOT$44M15.0+$64
0.01.53.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A+/A496 PA · .270/.399/.460 · 13 HR · 28 SB
256/344/433  ·  19 HR  ·  15 SB  ·  2.5 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$60M
worth $82M, owed $21M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$105M
average case $+105M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE38%
38% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
2.3 WAR a year on average
$+105M risk-adjusted × 38% confidence
= $+39M trade value
#58
BAL · SS · 26y
+$39M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$8M+$36M▲+$99M
2027Arb-2$12M3.6+$25
2028Arb-3$19M3.3+$12
TOT$31M6.9+$37
0.02.04.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB702 PA · .225/.309/.403 · 24 HR · 10 SB · 1.9 WAR
256/335/452  ·  23 HR  ·  24 SB  ·  3.5 WAR/yr
over 2 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$36M
worth $66M, owed $29M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$40M
average case $+42M, less $2M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE98%
98% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL2 yr
3.5 WAR a year on average
$+40M risk-adjusted × 98% confidence
= $+39M trade value
#59
LAA · SS · 26y
+$39M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$6M+$33M▲+$108M
2027Arb-1$6.0M3.0+$21
2028Arb-2$11M2.5+$9
2029Arb-3$15M2.3+$3
TOT$32M7.8+$33
0.01.53.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB704 PA · .239/.330/.436 · 27 HR · 24 SB · 3.9 WAR
238/315/440  ·  26 HR  ·  24 SB  ·  2.6 WAR/yr
over 3 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$33M
worth $61M, owed $28M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$42M
average case $+44M, less $2M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE93%
93% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
2.6 WAR a year on average
$+42M risk-adjusted × 93% confidence
= $+39M trade value
#60
MIL · 3B · 23y
+$38M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$48M▲+$215M
2027MiLB$0.0M1.4—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.3+$9
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2.0+$13
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2.2+$13
2031Arb-1$6.6M2.2+$9
2032Arb-2$10M2.0+$5
2033Arb-3$13M1.7+$2
TOT$33M11.4+$51
0.01.42.7273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AA/A+560 PA · .273/.412/.654 · 48 HR · 9 SB
238/335/484  ·  30 HR  ·  7 SB  ·  1.9 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$48M
worth $66M, owed $18M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$84M
average case $+84M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE45%
45% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
1.8 WAR a year on average
$+84M risk-adjusted × 45% confidence
= $+38M trade value
#61
LAD · OF · 21y
+$38M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$39M▲+$176M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.7—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.0+$7
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.6+$10
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.8+$11
2031Arb-1$6.2M1.9+$7
2032Arb-2$10M1.9+$4
2033Arb-3$15M1.8+$1
TOT$34M10.0+$41
0.01.22.4273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A+/INTL555 PA · .295/.436/.466 · 12 HR · 49 SB
245/347/415  ·  18 HR  ·  24 SB  ·  1.7 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$39M
worth $58M, owed $19M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$68M
average case $+68M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE55%
55% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
1.6 WAR a year on average
$+68M risk-adjusted × 55% confidence
= $+38M trade value
#62
TEX · LF · 25y
+$37M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$4M+$29M▲+$99M
2027Arb-1$5.2M2.6+$16
2028Arb-2$10M2.5+$10
2029Arb-3$15M2.3+$4
TOT$30M7.4+$30
0.01.53.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB471 PA · .238/.333/.421 · 17 HR · 15 SB · 1.4 WAR
247/340/423  ·  17 HR  ·  25 SB  ·  2.5 WAR/yr
over 3 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$29M
worth $55M, owed $26M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$42M
average case $+42M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE88%
88% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
2.4 WAR a year on average
$+42M risk-adjusted × 88% confidence
= $+37M trade value
#63
OAK · 1B · 24y
+$37M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$33M▲+$106M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M0.9+$3
2028Arb-1$4.5M2.6+$16
2029Arb-2$7.5M2.5+$11
2030Arb-3$11M2.3+$7
TOT$24M8.3+$36
0.01.53.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB434 PA · .256/.396/.483 · 21 HR · 7 SB · 2.4 WAR
241/359/487  ·  19 HR  ·  5 SB  ·  2.1 WAR/yr
over 4 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$33M
worth $50M, owed $17M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$45M
average case $+45M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE82%
82% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
2.4 WAR a year on average
$+45M risk-adjusted × 82% confidence
= $+37M trade value
#64
DET · LF · 26y
+$35M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$8M+$31M▲+$92M
2027Arb-2$11M3.2+$19
2028Arb-3$18M3.2+$12
TOT$29M6.4+$31
0.02.04.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB592 PA · .280/.370/.474 · 21 HR · 3 SB · 3.4 WAR
264/342/484  ·  27 HR  ·  3 SB  ·  3.2 WAR/yr
over 2 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$31M
worth $58M, owed $27M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$36M
average case $+38M, less $2M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE97%
97% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL2 yr
3.2 WAR a year on average
$+36M risk-adjusted × 97% confidence
= $+35M trade value
#65
TEX · SS · 21y
+$34M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$33M▲+$166M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.6—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.7+$2
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.3+$8
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.8+$11
2031Arb-1$6.4M2.1+$8
2032Arb-2$11M2.2+$5
2033Arb-3$16M2.1+$2
TOT$37M10.2+$36
0.01.42.7273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AA/INTL218 PA · .304/.381/.545 · 10 HR · 19 SB
251/319/443  ·  19 HR  ·  15 SB  ·  1.7 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$33M
worth $52M, owed $19M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$63M
average case $+63M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE55%
55% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.8 WAR a year on average
$+63M risk-adjusted × 55% confidence
= $+34M trade value
#66
STL · C · 23y
+$34M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$7M+$35M▲+$158M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M0.9+$3
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.5+$10
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.8+$12
2030Arb-1$5.3M1.9+$8
2031Arb-2$9.2M1.8+$5
2032Arb-3$12M1.7+$2
TOT$29M9.6+$40
0.01.22.4273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA/INTL457 PA · .273/.359/.468 · 18 HR · 9 SB
MLB102 PA · .284/.333/.474 · 5 HR · 0 SB · 1.6 WAR
256/323/415  ·  14 HR  ·  6 SB  ·  1.6 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$35M
worth $53M, owed $18M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$58M
average case $+59M, less $2M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE60%
60% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.7 WAR a year on average
$+58M risk-adjusted × 60% confidence
= $+34M trade value
#67
TB · C · 23y
+$34M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$45M▲+$195M
2027MiLB$0.0M1.4—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.2+$8
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.8+$12
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2.0+$12
2031Arb-1$6.0M2.0+$8
2032Arb-2$9.4M1.9+$5
2033Arb-3$12M1.7+$2
TOT$30M10.6+$47
0.01.22.5273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA/AA/A+/A543 PA · .342/.410/.517 · 17 HR · 10 SB
273/336/425  ·  13 HR  ·  5 SB  ·  1.8 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$45M
worth $61M, owed $16M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$76M
average case $+76M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE45%
45% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
1.7 WAR a year on average
$+76M risk-adjusted × 45% confidence
= $+34M trade value
#68
STL · SS · 22y
+$33M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$42M▲+$191M
2027MiLB$0.0M1.0—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.0+$7
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.6+$10
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2.0+$12
2031Arb-1$6.4M2.1+$8
2032Arb-2$10M2.0+$5
2033Arb-3$14M1.9+$2
TOT$34M10.6+$44
0.01.32.6273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AA/A+500 PA · .283/.328/.587 · 39 HR · 8 SB
255/309/462  ·  29 HR  ·  7 SB  ·  1.8 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$42M
worth $61M, owed $19M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$74M
average case $+74M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE45%
45% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
1.7 WAR a year on average
$+74M risk-adjusted × 45% confidence
= $+33M trade value
#69
COL · CF · 25y
+$33M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$2M+$39M▲+$105M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M0.9+$3
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2.3+$16
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2.1+$14
2030Arb-1$5.7M1.8+$7
2031Arb-2$8.3M1.5+$3
2032Arb-3$10M1.2+$0
TOT$27M9.8+$44
0.01.42.8273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA257 PA · .338/.414/.529 · 6 HR · 30 SB
MLB372 PA · .279/.341/.477 · 12 HR · 11 SB · 1.6 WAR
245/311/394  ·  14 HR  ·  31 SB  ·  1.6 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$39M
worth $55M, owed $16M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$46M
average case $+46M, less $0M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE72%
72% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.7 WAR a year on average
$+46M risk-adjusted × 72% confidence
= $+33M trade value
#70
MIL · CF · 22y
+$33M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$13M+$46M▲+$131M
2027Ext$2.0M1.0+$6
2028Ext$3.5M1.6+$9
2029Ext$4.5M2.0+$10
2030Ext$5.5M2.1+$9
2031Ext$7.0M2.1+$8
2032Ext$7.5M2.1+$7
TOT$30M10.9+$49
0.01.32.6273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA346 PA · .321/.432/.470 · 9 HR · 24 SB
MLB212 PA · .246/.311/.325 · 1 HR · 3 SB · 0.3 WAR
254/334/372  ·  12 HR  ·  27 SB  ·  1.8 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$46M
worth $68M, owed $22M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$51M
average case $+54M, less $3M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE65%
65% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
1.7 WAR a year on average
$+51M risk-adjusted × 65% confidence
= $+33M trade value
#71
STL · C · 27y
+$31M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$7M+$38M▲+$113M
2027Arb-1$5.4M3.0+$22
2028Arb-2$8.7M2.5+$11
2029Arb-3$12M2.3+$6
TOT$26M7.8+$39
0.01.53.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB717 PA · .241/.353/.382 · 19 HR · 8 SB · 4.1 WAR
259/361/419  ·  15 HR  ·  4 SB  ·  2.6 WAR/yr
over 3 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$38M
worth $60M, owed $23M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$45M
average case $+47M, less $2M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE69%
69% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
2.5 WAR a year on average
$+45M risk-adjusted × 69% confidence
= $+31M trade value
#72
CHC · CF · 23y
+$31M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$51M▲+$237M
2027MiLB$0.0M1.0—
2028MiLB$0.0M1.2—
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2.0+$13
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2.4+$15
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2.4+$14
2032Arb-1$7.0M2.2+$8
2033Arb-2$11M1.9+$4
2034Arb-3$13M1.6+$1
TOT$34M12.5+$54
0.01.42.9273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AA/A+595 PA · .243/.422/.401 · 10 HR · 70 SB
238/360/377  ·  11 HR  ·  18 SB  ·  2.1 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$51M
worth $67M, owed $16M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$92M
average case $+92M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE34%
34% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
1.9 WAR a year on average
$+92M risk-adjusted × 34% confidence
= $+31M trade value
#73
TB · C · 28y
+$31M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$8M+$40M▲+$95M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2.5+$19
2028Arb-1$3.9M2.0+$11
2029Arb-2$5.5M1.7+$7
2030Arb-3$6.3M1.3+$4
TOT$16M7.5+$41
0.01.53.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB554 PA · .284/.367/.434 · 18 HR · 3 SB · 4.1 WAR
253/340/387  ·  12 HR  ·  1 SB  ·  1.9 WAR/yr
over 4 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$40M
worth $53M, owed $12M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$47M
average case $+47M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE66%
66% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL4 yr
1.8 WAR a year on average
$+47M risk-adjusted × 66% confidence
= $+31M trade value
#74
CWS · 2B · 26y
+$29M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$6M+$31M▲+$68M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2.4+$18
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.3+$9
2029Arb-1$3.2M1.0+$4
2030Arb-2$4.4M0.8+$0
2031Arb-3$4.5M0.4+$0
TOT$14M5.9+$32
0.01.42.9273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB643 PA · .276/.350/.415 · 16 HR · 4 SB · 2.9 WAR
246/327/353  ·  11 HR  ·  5 SB  ·  1.2 WAR/yr
over 5 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$31M
worth $35M, owed $4M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$35M
average case $+35M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE84%
84% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
1.6 WAR a year on average
$+35M risk-adjusted × 84% confidence
= $+29M trade value
#75
HOU · SS · 20y
+$29M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$58M▲+$266M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.8—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.8—
2029MiLB$0.0M1.5—
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2.1+$13
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2.5+$14
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2.7+$15
2033Arb-1$8.0M2.8+$11
2034Arb-2$13M2.7+$7
2035Arb-3$18M2.4+$3
TOT$42M15.2+$63
0.01.53.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A+/A466 PA · .231/.429/.445 · 20 HR · 19 SB
226/342/435  ·  27 HR  ·  9 SB  ·  2.5 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$58M
worth $76M, owed $18M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$103M
average case $+103M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE28%
28% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
2.3 WAR a year on average
$+103M risk-adjusted × 28% confidence
= $+29M trade value
#76
NYY · SS · 22y
+$29M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$9M+$34M▲+$125M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M0.7+$2
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.6+$11
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2.1+$14
2030Arb-1$8.5M2.3+$8
2031Arb-2$15M2.3+$4
2032Arb-3$22M2.2+$0
TOT$48M11.2+$39
0.01.53.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA/AA352 PA · .280/.403/.476 · 10 HR · 14 SB
MLB166 PA · .237/.285/.414 · 7 HR · 2 SB · 0.7 WAR
235/322/394  ·  18 HR  ·  34 SB  ·  1.9 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$34M
worth $64M, owed $30M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$46M
average case $+48M, less $2M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE63%
63% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
2.0 WAR a year on average
$+46M risk-adjusted × 63% confidence
= $+29M trade value
#77
MIN · OF · 22y
+$28M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$10M+$27M▲+$134M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M0.7+$2
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.2+$8
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.5+$10
2030Arb-1$5.9M1.7+$7
2031Arb-2$11M1.9+$4
2032Arb-3$16M1.8+$0
TOT$35M8.8+$31
0.01.22.5273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA307 PA · .308/.407/.532 · 12 HR · 17 SB
MLB93 PA · .226/.293/.393 · 4 HR · 1 SB · -0.2 WAR
268/345/446  ·  16 HR  ·  17 SB  ·  1.5 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$27M
worth $49M, owed $22M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$46M
average case $+48M, less $2M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE62%
62% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.5 WAR a year on average
$+46M risk-adjusted × 62% confidence
= $+28M trade value
#78
MIL · SS · 20y
+$27M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$52M▲+$250M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.8—
2028MiLB$0.0M1.1—
2029MiLB$0.0M1.8—
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2.1+$13
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2.3+$13
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2.4+$13
2033Arb-1$7.2M2.5+$9
2034Arb-2$12M2.4+$6
2035Arb-3$16M2.2+$3
TOT$37M13.9+$56
0.01.53.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A+/A538 PA · .252/.413/.406 · 10 HR · 40 SB
243/348/397  ·  16 HR  ·  10 SB  ·  2.3 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$52M
worth $68M, owed $16M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$96M
average case $+96M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE28%
28% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
2.1 WAR a year on average
$+96M risk-adjusted × 28% confidence
= $+27M trade value
#79
COL · C · 27y
+$26M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$3M+$31M▲+$91M
2027Arb-1$4.9M2.7+$18
2028Arb-2$7.8M2.2+$9
2029Arb-3$11M2.0+$5
TOT$24M6.9+$32
0.01.53.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB574 PA · .245/.310/.529 · 41 HR · 5 SB · 3.3 WAR
233/291/466  ·  25 HR  ·  2 SB  ·  2.3 WAR/yr
over 3 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$31M
worth $52M, owed $21M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$38M
average case $+39M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE69%
69% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
2.3 WAR a year on average
$+38M risk-adjusted × 69% confidence
= $+26M trade value
#80
HOU · RF · 24y
+$26M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$2M+$29M▲+$66M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.9+$14
2028Arb-1$4.3M1.6+$8
2029Arb-2$7.5M1.6+$5
2030Arb-3$11M1.5+$2
TOT$23M6.6+$29
0.01.22.4273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB568 PA · .210/.279/.390 · 21 HR · 12 SB · 0.2 WAR
236/308/410  ·  18 HR  ·  27 SB  ·  1.6 WAR/yr
over 4 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$29M
worth $47M, owed $18M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$32M
average case $+32M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE83%
83% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL4 yr
1.6 WAR a year on average
$+32M risk-adjusted × 83% confidence
= $+26M trade value
#81
WSH · 3B · 24y
+$26M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$3M+$33M▲+$72M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.4+$10
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.6+$11
2029Arb-1$4.5M1.6+$7
2030Arb-2$7.7M1.5+$4
2031Arb-3$10M1.3+$1
TOT$24M7.4+$34
0.01.12.1273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA222 PA · .301/.342/.500 · 8 HR · 3 SB
MLB355 PA · .247/.313/.397 · 10 HR · 3 SB · 0.9 WAR
260/318/412  ·  16 HR  ·  6 SB  ·  1.5 WAR/yr
over 5 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$33M
worth $50M, owed $17M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$33M
average case $+34M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE79%
79% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.4 WAR a year on average
$+33M risk-adjusted × 79% confidence
= $+26M trade value
#82
ARI · C · 21y
+$25M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$43M▲+$193M
2027MiLB$0.0M1.0—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.9—
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.6+$10
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.8+$11
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M1.9+$11
2032Arb-1$5.4M1.9+$7
2033Arb-2$8.7M1.8+$4
2034Arb-3$12M1.7+$2
TOT$29M10.7+$46
0.01.22.4273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AA/A+/A448 PA · .272/.377/.493 · 19 HR · 6 SB
243/327/405  ·  14 HR  ·  4 SB  ·  1.8 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$43M
worth $57M, owed $14M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$75M
average case $+75M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE34%
34% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
1.7 WAR a year on average
$+75M risk-adjusted × 34% confidence
= $+25M trade value
#83
MIA · C · 24y
+$25M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$0M+$35M▲+$72M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.3+$10
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.2+$8
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.3+$8
2030Arb-1$3.0M1.3+$6
2031Arb-2$4.4M1.1+$4
2032Arb-3$5.7M0.9+$0
TOT$16M7.1+$36
0.00.91.8273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA103 PA · .244/.388/.378 · 3 HR · 1 SB
MLB330 PA · .234/.282/.403 · 14 HR · 0 SB · 1.3 WAR
233/295/393  ·  13 HR  ·  2 SB  ·  1.2 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$35M
worth $42M, owed $7M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$35M
average case $+35M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE70%
70% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.2 WAR a year on average
$+35M risk-adjusted × 70% confidence
= $+25M trade value
#84
LAD · OF · 23y
+$25M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$33M▲+$121M
2027MiLB$0.0M1.0—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.0+$7
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.4+$9
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.6+$10
2031Arb-1$4.8M1.5+$6
2032Arb-2$7.4M1.4+$3
2033Arb-3$9.4M1.1+$1
TOT$24M8.0+$35
0.01.12.1273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A+/INTL589 PA · .283/.394/.518 · 26 HR · 18 SB
258/338/441  ·  18 HR  ·  11 SB  ·  1.3 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$33M
worth $47M, owed $13M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$50M
average case $+50M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE50%
50% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
1.2 WAR a year on average
$+50M risk-adjusted × 50% confidence
= $+25M trade value
#85
LAD · SS · 20y
+$24M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$45M▲+$226M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.7—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.8—
2029MiLB$0.0M1.5—
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.9+$11
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2.1+$12
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2.2+$12
2033Arb-1$7.4M2.3+$8
2034Arb-2$12M2.2+$5
2035Arb-3$16M2.0+$2
TOT$38M12.7+$49
0.01.42.8273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A+/A547 PA · .295/.382/.546 · 26 HR · 9 SB
245/320/451  ·  26 HR  ·  11 SB  ·  2.1 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$45M
worth $62M, owed $17M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$86M
average case $+86M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE28%
28% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
1.9 WAR a year on average
$+86M risk-adjusted × 28% confidence
= $+24M trade value
#86
CHC · RF · 20y
+$24M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$37M▲+$163M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.8—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.8—
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.3+$8
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.6+$10
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M1.7+$9
2032Arb-1$5.4M1.7+$6
2033Arb-2$9.1M1.8+$4
2034Arb-3$13M1.7+$2
TOT$30M9.8+$40
0.01.12.3273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AA/A+/A562 PA · .284/.407/.518 · 23 HR · 17 SB
250/344/444  ·  23 HR  ·  10 SB  ·  1.6 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$37M
worth $52M, owed $15M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$64M
average case $+64M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE38%
38% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
1.5 WAR a year on average
$+64M risk-adjusted × 38% confidence
= $+24M trade value
#87
SF · SS · 19y
+$24M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$41M▲+$202M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.6—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.4—
2029MiLB$0.0M1.0—
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.5+$9
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M1.8+$10
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2.1+$11
2033Arb-1$6.8M2.2+$8
2034Arb-2$11M2.2+$5
2035Arb-3$17M2.1+$2
TOT$38M11.9+$44
0.01.42.7273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A/ROK275 PA · .351/.447/.544 · 5 HR · 21 SB
248/324/409  ·  16 HR  ·  15 SB  ·  2.0 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$41M
worth $57M, owed $16M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$77M
average case $+77M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE31%
31% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
1.8 WAR a year on average
$+77M risk-adjusted × 31% confidence
= $+24M trade value
#88
DET · SS · 22y
+$24M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$26M▲+$110M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.6—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.8+$2
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.2+$8
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.5+$9
2031Arb-1$5.4M1.6+$6
2032Arb-2$8.7M1.6+$4
2033Arb-3$12M1.4+$1
TOT$29M8.1+$29
0.01.12.1273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A+/A/INTL508 PA · .253/.358/.450 · 19 HR · 17 SB
227/310/402  ·  19 HR  ·  10 SB  ·  1.3 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$26M
worth $41M, owed $15M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$43M
average case $+43M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE55%
55% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.4 WAR a year on average
$+43M risk-adjusted × 55% confidence
= $+24M trade value
#89
SF · SS · 20y
+$24M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$44M▲+$219M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.7—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.9—
2029MiLB$0.0M1.4—
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.8+$11
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2.1+$12
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2.2+$12
2033Arb-1$7.2M2.2+$7
2034Arb-2$12M2.1+$4
2035Arb-3$16M2.0+$2
TOT$37M12.4+$48
0.01.42.7273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A+/A/INTL572 PA · .310/.374/.516 · 19 HR · 28 SB
257/322/429  ·  20 HR  ·  13 SB  ·  2.1 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$44M
worth $61M, owed $16M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$83M
average case $+83M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE28%
28% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
1.9 WAR a year on average
$+83M risk-adjusted × 28% confidence
= $+24M trade value
#90
LAA · C · 23y
+$23M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$4M+$33M▲+$67M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.1+$8
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.1+$7
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.2+$8
2030Arb-1$3.0M1.2+$5
2031Arb-2$4.8M1.2+$4
2032Arb-3$6.2M1.0+$2
TOT$16M6.8+$34
0.00.81.7273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA145 PA · .235/.347/.353 · 2 HR · 2 SB
MLB352 PA · .215/.281/.331 · 9 HR · 1 SB · 0.6 WAR
239/312/379  ·  13 HR  ·  3 SB  ·  1.1 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$33M
worth $44M, owed $11M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$31M
average case $+32M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE74%
74% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+31M risk-adjusted × 74% confidence
= $+23M trade value
#91
CHC · 1B · 29y
+$23M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$5M+$23M▲+$61M
2027Arb-1$4.8M2.3+$14
2028Arb-2$6.5M1.8+$7
2029Arb-3$7.7M1.4+$3
TOT$19M5.5+$24
0.01.42.8273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB710 PA · .242/.352/.393 · 20 HR · 3 SB · 1.5 WAR
240/341/422  ·  20 HR  ·  2 SB  ·  1.8 WAR/yr
over 3 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$23M
worth $40M, owed $17M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$25M
average case $+26M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE91%
91% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
1.8 WAR a year on average
$+25M risk-adjusted × 91% confidence
= $+23M trade value
#92
LAD · C · 26y
+$23M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$0M+$31M▲+$63M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.5+$11
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.4+$10
2029Arb-1$2.9M1.3+$7
2030Arb-2$4.3M1.1+$4
2031Arb-3$5.5M0.9+$0
TOT$14M6.2+$31
0.01.02.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB253 PA · .246/.328/.460 · 12 HR · 0 SB · 1.7 WAR
237/315/432  ·  12 HR  ·  1 SB  ·  1.2 WAR/yr
over 5 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$31M
worth $37M, owed $7M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$31M
average case $+31M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE74%
74% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL4 yr
1.3 WAR a year on average
$+31M risk-adjusted × 74% confidence
= $+23M trade value
#93
MIN · SS · 23y
+$22M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$27M▲+$112M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.8—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.9+$3
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.4+$9
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.6+$10
2031Arb-1$5.2M1.6+$6
2032Arb-2$8.1M1.5+$3
2033Arb-3$10M1.2+$1
TOT$26M8.2+$31
0.01.12.1273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AA/A+554 PA · .312/.392/.455 · 12 HR · 50 SB
247/317/375  ·  11 HR  ·  19 SB  ·  1.4 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$27M
worth $41M, owed $14M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$44M
average case $+44M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE50%
50% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.4 WAR a year on average
$+44M risk-adjusted × 50% confidence
= $+22M trade value
#94
SEA · 2B · 24y
+$22M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$2M+$28M▲+$57M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.6+$12
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.2+$8
2029Arb-1$3.8M1.2+$5
2030Arb-2$5.9M1.1+$3
2031Arb-3$7.8M0.9+$0
TOT$19M6.0+$28
0.01.12.1273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB638 PA · .246/.312/.381 · 17 HR · 4 SB · 1.4 WAR
255/326/390  ·  15 HR  ·  5 SB  ·  1.2 WAR/yr
over 5 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$28M
worth $36M, owed $9M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$27M
average case $+28M, less $0M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE81%
81% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL4 yr
1.2 WAR a year on average
$+27M risk-adjusted × 81% confidence
= $+22M trade value
#95
BOS · CF · 26y
+$22M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$16M+$26M▲+$77M
2027Ext$6.2M2.2+$11
2028Ext$6.2M1.8+$8
2029Ext$6.2M1.5+$5
2030Ext$6.2M1.2+$3
2031Ext$6.2M0.9-$1
2032CLU OPT·DEC$6.2M0.5—
TOT$31M7.6+$26
0.01.42.7273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB576 PA · .285/.321/.444 · 16 HR · 17 SB · 2.0 WAR
244/283/380  ·  13 HR  ·  18 SB  ·  1.3 WAR/yr
over 7 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$26M
worth $48M, owed $22M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$24M
average case $+29M, less $4M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE90%
90% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL4 yr
1.6 WAR a year on average
$+24M risk-adjusted × 90% confidence
= $+22M trade value
#96
CLE · C · 25y
+$22M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$5M+$30M▲+$98M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.1+$8
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.1+$7
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.3+$8
2030Arb-1$4.1M1.3+$5
2031Arb-2$6.5M1.2+$3
2032Arb-3$8.8M1.0+$0
TOT$22M7.0+$32
0.00.91.8273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA473 PA · .297/.424/.528 · 20 HR · 2 SB
MLB24 PA · .095/.208/.095 · 0 HR · 0 SB · 0.7 WAR
239/336/384  ·  11 HR  ·  1 SB  ·  1.2 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$30M
worth $44M, owed $14M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$39M
average case $+40M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE56%
56% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+39M risk-adjusted × 56% confidence
= $+22M trade value
#97
WSH · SS · 26y
+$21M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$8M+$18M▲+$63M
2027Arb-2$8.4M2.5+$12
2028Arb-3$13M2.4+$6
TOT$21M4.9+$18
0.01.53.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB654 PA · .261/.336/.497 · 33 HR · 34 SB · 4.7 WAR
252/322/460  ·  22 HR  ·  27 SB  ·  2.5 WAR/yr
over 2 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$18M
worth $38M, owed $20M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$21M
average case $+23M, less $2M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE98%
98% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL2 yr
2.5 WAR a year on average
$+21M risk-adjusted × 98% confidence
= $+21M trade value
#98
SF · CF · 26y
+$21M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$26M▲+$54M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.6+$12
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.3+$9
2029Arb-1$3.0M1.1+$5
2030Arb-2$4.4M0.8+$0
2031Arb-3$5.0M0.6+$0
TOT$14M5.4+$26
0.01.12.1273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA56 PA · .289/.389/.400 · 1 HR · 0 SB
MLB393 PA · .238/.330/.394 · 11 HR · 3 SB · 1.2 WAR
241/324/397  ·  11 HR  ·  3 SB  ·  1.1 WAR/yr
over 5 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$26M
worth $30M, owed $4M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$27M
average case $+27M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE78%
78% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
1.3 WAR a year on average
$+27M risk-adjusted × 78% confidence
= $+21M trade value
#99
TB · 1B · 29y
+$20M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$7M+$26M▲+$76M
2027Arb-1$5.9M2.8+$18
2028Arb-2$8.0M1.9+$7
2029Arb-3$9.4M1.5+$3
TOT$23M6.2+$28
0.01.53.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB668 PA · .274/.358/.434 · 22 HR · 0 SB · 2.0 WAR
264/348/434  ·  22 HR  ·  1 SB  ·  2.1 WAR/yr
over 3 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$26M
worth $47M, owed $21M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$30M
average case $+31M, less $2M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE69%
69% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
2.0 WAR a year on average
$+30M risk-adjusted × 69% confidence
= $+20M trade value
#100
ARI · SS · 22y
+$20M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$25M▲+$98M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.8—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.8+$2
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.2+$8
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.4+$8
2031Arb-1$4.6M1.5+$6
2032Arb-2$7.4M1.4+$3
2033Arb-3$9.9M1.3+$1
TOT$24M7.6+$29
0.01.02.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA/AA/A+/INTL448 PA · .293/.372/.472 · 10 HR · 6 SB
258/328/416  ·  12 HR  ·  7 SB  ·  1.3 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$25M
worth $38M, owed $13M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$39M
average case $+39M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE50%
50% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.3 WAR a year on average
$+39M risk-adjusted × 50% confidence
= $+20M trade value
#101
PIT · 3B · 28y
+$20M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$2M+$19M▲+$53M
2027Arb-1$4.8M2.4+$14
2028Arb-2$6.6M1.5+$5
2029Arb-3$7.9M1.0+$0
TOT$19M4.9+$20
0.01.42.9273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB608 PA · .303/.367/.388 · 6 HR · 7 SB · 3.1 WAR
276/336/364  ·  7 HR  ·  23 SB  ·  1.6 WAR/yr
over 3 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$19M
worth $36M, owed $17M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$22M
average case $+23M, less $0M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE87%
87% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
1.6 WAR a year on average
$+22M risk-adjusted × 87% confidence
= $+20M trade value
#102
OAK · C · 29y
+$19M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$6M+$18M▲+$56M
2027Arb-2$7.9M2.6+$13
2028Arb-3$10M1.9+$5
TOT$18M4.5+$18
0.01.53.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB467 PA · .262/.328/.474 · 23 HR · 3 SB · 3.1 WAR
258/318/490  ·  22 HR  ·  4 SB  ·  2.2 WAR/yr
over 2 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$18M
worth $35M, owed $17M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$21M
average case $+22M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE93%
93% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL2 yr
2.2 WAR a year on average
$+21M risk-adjusted × 93% confidence
= $+19M trade value
#103
COL · 3B · 25y
+$19M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$0M+$24M▲+$50M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.5+$11
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.1+$7
2029Arb-1$3.0M1.1+$5
2030Arb-2$4.4M0.8+$0
2031Arb-3$5.0M0.6+$0
TOT$14M5.1+$24
0.01.02.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AA17 PA · .400/.471/.667 · 1 HR · 1 SB
MLB475 PA · .253/.347/.414 · 13 HR · 5 SB · 1.7 WAR
233/321/359  ·  10 HR  ·  4 SB  ·  1.0 WAR/yr
over 5 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$24M
worth $27M, owed $4M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$24M
average case $+24M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE79%
79% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
1.2 WAR a year on average
$+24M risk-adjusted × 79% confidence
= $+19M trade value
#104
BOS · 3B · 27y
+$19M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$1M+$28M▲+$57M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2.0+$15
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.3+$9
2029Arb-1$3.0M1.0+$4
2030Arb-2$3.7M0.7+$0
2031Arb-3$3.7M0.3+$0
TOT$12M5.3+$29
0.01.22.5273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB586 PA · .248/.332/.378 · 13 HR · 20 SB · 1.5 WAR
238/320/355  ·  10 HR  ·  14 SB  ·  1.1 WAR/yr
over 5 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$28M
worth $32M, owed $4M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$29M
average case $+29M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE67%
67% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
1.4 WAR a year on average
$+29M risk-adjusted × 67% confidence
= $+19M trade value
#105
MIA · LF · 27y
+$19M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$1M+$29M▲+$59M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.9+$14
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.4+$10
2029Arb-1$3.0M1.1+$5
2030Arb-2$4.0M0.8+$0
2031Arb-3$4.0M0.4+$0
TOT$13M5.6+$29
0.01.22.4273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA25 PA · .273/.360/.364 · 0 HR · 3 SB
MLB505 PA · .228/.313/.442 · 25 HR · 13 SB · 1.6 WAR
242/324/436  ·  18 HR  ·  7 SB  ·  1.1 WAR/yr
over 5 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$29M
worth $33M, owed $4M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$29M
average case $+29M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE65%
65% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
1.4 WAR a year on average
$+29M risk-adjusted × 65% confidence
= $+19M trade value
#106
CHC · 2B · 23y
+$19M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$3M+$27M▲+$61M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M0.8+$2
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.4+$10
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.5+$10
2030Arb-1$4.6M1.4+$6
2031Arb-2$7.2M1.3+$3
2032Arb-3$9.2M1.1+$1
TOT$23M7.5+$31
0.01.02.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA196 PA · .312/.395/.547 · 9 HR · 19 SB
MLB266 PA · .261/.321/.402 · 6 HR · 9 SB · 0.9 WAR
248/311/389  ·  15 HR  ·  26 SB  ·  1.2 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$27M
worth $42M, owed $14M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$28M
average case $+28M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE67%
67% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.3 WAR a year on average
$+28M risk-adjusted × 67% confidence
= $+19M trade value
#107
CWS · OF · 24y
+$18M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$3M+$26M▲+$57M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M0.7+$2
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.3+$9
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.5+$10
2030Arb-1$4.8M1.4+$5
2031Arb-2$7.2M1.2+$2
2032Arb-3$8.6M0.9+$0
TOT$23M7.0+$28
0.01.02.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA/AA258 PA · .314/.422/.548 · 10 HR · 5 SB
MLB365 PA · .226/.312/.350 · 6 HR · 1 SB · -0.1 WAR
243/329/399  ·  17 HR  ·  6 SB  ·  1.2 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$26M
worth $35M, owed $9M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$26M
average case $+26M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE72%
72% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL4 yr
1.3 WAR a year on average
$+26M risk-adjusted × 72% confidence
= $+18M trade value
#108
TOR · 3B · 24y
+$18M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$6M+$22M▲+$88M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M0.7+$2
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.2+$8
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.5+$10
2030Arb-1$5.5M1.4+$5
2031Arb-2$8.3M1.2+$2
2032Arb-3$10M1.0+$0
TOT$27M7.0+$26
0.01.02.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA/AA435 PA · .294/.417/.602 · 28 HR · 7 SB
MLB67 PA · .197/.242/.328 · 2 HR · 0 SB · -0.0 WAR
232/322/430  ·  24 HR  ·  5 SB  ·  1.2 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$22M
worth $39M, owed $16M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$32M
average case $+33M, less $2M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE58%
58% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.2 WAR a year on average
$+32M risk-adjusted × 58% confidence
= $+18M trade value
#109
NYY · CF · 26y
+$18M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$26M▲+$54M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.1+$8
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.5+$10
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.2+$8
2030Arb-1$3.3M0.9+$0
2031Arb-2$4.5M0.6+$0
2032Arb-3$4.6M0.3+$0
TOT$15M5.6+$26
0.01.02.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA233 PA · .273/.385/.557 · 14 HR · 10 SB
MLB289 PA · .245/.312/.429 · 11 HR · 10 SB · 1.0 WAR
228/302/403  ·  18 HR  ·  18 SB  ·  0.9 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$26M
worth $28M, owed $2M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$27M
average case $+27M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE68%
68% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
1.2 WAR a year on average
$+27M risk-adjusted × 68% confidence
= $+18M trade value
#110
PIT · C · 21y
+$18M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$23M▲+$91M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.7—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.6+$2
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.1+$7
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.3+$8
2031Arb-1$4.6M1.4+$5
2032Arb-2$7.7M1.4+$3
2033Arb-3$11M1.4+$1
TOT$26M7.2+$25
0.00.91.9273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A+412 PA · .305/.389/.513 · 18 HR · 3 SB
240/307/419  ·  18 HR  ·  4 SB  ·  1.2 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$23M
worth $37M, owed $14M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$36M
average case $+36M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE50%
50% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.2 WAR a year on average
$+36M risk-adjusted × 50% confidence
= $+18M trade value
#111
Colt Keith OPT
DET · 3B · 25y
+$18M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$7M+$22M▲+$54M
2027Ext$4.8M1.5+$7
2028Ext$4.8M1.5+$7
2029Ext$4.8M1.4+$6
2030CLU OPT·EXE$6.0M1.2+$3
2031CLU OPT·DEC$10M1.0—
TOT$14M4.4+$20
0.01.02.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB423 PA · .258/.322/.406 · 10 HR · 6 SB · 1.7 WAR
265/332/418  ·  9 HR  ·  3 SB  ·  1.4 WAR/yr
over 4 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$22M
worth $40M, owed $18M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$21M
average case $+23M, less $2M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE86%
86% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL4 yr
1.4 WAR a year on average
$+21M risk-adjusted × 86% confidence
= $+18M trade value
#112
TEX · SS · 20y
+$18M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$38M▲+$187M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.6—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.7—
2029MiLB$0.0M1.3—
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.6+$10
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M1.8+$10
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M1.9+$10
2033Arb-1$6.6M2.0+$7
2034Arb-2$11M1.9+$4
2035Arb-3$14M1.7+$1
TOT$34M10.9+$41
0.01.22.5273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A537 PA · .286/.390/.416 · 8 HR · 55 SB
253/328/390  ·  14 HR  ·  16 SB  ·  1.8 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$38M
worth $53M, owed $15M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$71M
average case $+71M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE25%
25% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
1.7 WAR a year on average
$+71M risk-adjusted × 25% confidence
= $+18M trade value
#113
PHI · SS · 23y
+$18M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$25M▲+$99M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.9—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.8+$2
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.3+$8
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.5+$9
2031Arb-1$4.8M1.5+$6
2032Arb-2$7.4M1.4+$3
2033Arb-3$9.9M1.1+$0
TOT$25M7.6+$29
0.01.02.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AA534 PA · .267/.410/.517 · 26 HR · 30 SB
219/316/383  ·  15 HR  ·  20 SB  ·  1.3 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$25M
worth $38M, owed $13M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$40M
average case $+40M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE45%
45% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.3 WAR a year on average
$+40M risk-adjusted × 45% confidence
= $+18M trade value
#114
NYM · C · 25y
+$18M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$5M+$22M▲+$48M
2027Arb-1$3.2M1.8+$11
2028Arb-2$5.3M1.6+$7
2029Arb-3$8.1M1.5+$4
TOT$17M4.9+$22
0.01.12.3273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB420 PA · .233/.311/.399 · 16 HR · 0 SB · 1.9 WAR
228/308/413  ·  16 HR  ·  1 SB  ·  1.6 WAR/yr
over 3 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$22M
worth $36M, owed $14M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$20M
average case $+22M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE86%
86% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
1.6 WAR a year on average
$+20M risk-adjusted × 86% confidence
= $+18M trade value
#115
Roman Anthony OPT
BOS · LF · 23y
+$17M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$72M+$16M▲+$184M
2027Ext$16M1.3-$6
2028Ext$16M2.5+$4
2029Ext$16M2.8+$8
2030Ext$16M2.7+$6
2031Ext$16M2.6+$5
2032Ext$16M2.3+$3
2033Ext$16M2.0+$2
2034CLU OPT·DEC$16M1.6—
TOT$114M16.2+$21
0.01.53.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA16 PA · .286/.375/.571 · 1 HR · 0 SB
MLB242 PA · .245/.339/.396 · 5 HR · 2 SB · 0.5 WAR
265/359/463  ·  19 HR  ·  6 SB  ·  2.3 WAR/yr
over 7 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$16M
worth $101M, owed $85M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$22M
average case $+40M, less $18M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE78%
78% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL7 yr
2.2 WAR a year on average
$+22M risk-adjusted × 78% confidence
= $+17M trade value
#116
NYM · SS · 22y
+$17M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$22M▲+$86M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.7—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.7+$2
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.1+$7
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.3+$8
2031Arb-1$5.0M1.4+$5
2032Arb-2$8.4M1.4+$3
2033Arb-3$11M1.2+$0
TOT$27M7.1+$24
0.00.91.9273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA/AA/INTL580 PA · .273/.337/.509 · 29 HR · 23 SB
243/307/405  ·  19 HR  ·  15 SB  ·  1.2 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$22M
worth $36M, owed $14M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$34M
average case $+34M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE50%
50% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.2 WAR a year on average
$+34M risk-adjusted × 50% confidence
= $+17M trade value
#117
KC · C · 22y
+$17M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$22M▲+$82M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.6—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.7+$2
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.1+$7
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.3+$8
2031Arb-1$4.4M1.3+$5
2032Arb-2$7.4M1.3+$3
2033Arb-3$9.9M1.2+$1
TOT$24M6.9+$25
0.00.91.8273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A+511 PA · .234/.414/.459 · 23 HR · 27 SB
199/319/366  ·  16 HR  ·  8 SB  ·  1.2 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$22M
worth $35M, owed $13M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$33M
average case $+33M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE50%
50% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.2 WAR a year on average
$+33M risk-adjusted × 50% confidence
= $+17M trade value
#118
TOR · C · 28y
+$16M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$25M+$17M▲+$82M
2027Ext$12M2.6+$10
2028Ext$12M2.1+$5
2029Ext$12M1.9+$4
2030Ext$12M1.5+$1
TOT$46M8.1+$20
0.01.53.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB313 PA · .278/.351/.415 · 10 HR · 1 SB · 1.8 WAR
265/333/403  ·  8 HR  ·  1 SB  ·  2.0 WAR/yr
over 4 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$17M
worth $57M, owed $40M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$18M
average case $+24M, less $6M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE95%
95% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL4 yr
1.9 WAR a year on average
$+18M risk-adjusted × 95% confidence
= $+16M trade value
#119
TEX · SS · 24y
+$16M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$7M+$20M▲+$80M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M0.7+$2
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.2+$8
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.4+$9
2030Arb-1$5.7M1.3+$4
2031Arb-2$8.7M1.2+$1
2032Arb-3$12M1.0+$0
TOT$28M6.8+$25
0.00.91.9273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA434 PA · .276/.366/.470 · 16 HR · 39 SB
MLB65 PA · .207/.281/.345 · 1 HR · 1 SB · 0.5 WAR
236/304/381  ·  12 HR  ·  34 SB  ·  1.1 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$20M
worth $38M, owed $18M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$28M
average case $+30M, less $2M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE58%
58% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.2 WAR a year on average
$+28M risk-adjusted × 58% confidence
= $+16M trade value
#120
SEA · C · 23y
+$16M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$24M▲+$89M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.9—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.7+$2
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.2+$8
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.4+$8
2031Arb-1$4.2M1.4+$6
2032Arb-2$6.4M1.3+$3
2033Arb-3$8.4M1.1+$1
TOT$21M7.1+$28
0.00.91.9273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A+474 PA · .243/.405/.488 · 22 HR · 8 SB
206/320/372  ·  15 HR  ·  4 SB  ·  1.2 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$24M
worth $36M, owed $11M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$37M
average case $+37M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE45%
45% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.2 WAR a year on average
$+37M risk-adjusted × 45% confidence
= $+16M trade value
#121
PIT · CF · 28y
+$16M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$8M+$16M▲+$53M
2027Arb-2$8.7M2.6+$13
2028Arb-3$12M1.9+$3
TOT$20M4.5+$16
0.01.53.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AA18 PA · .176/.222/.176 · 0 HR · 1 SB
MLB419 PA · .280/.368/.486 · 20 HR · 30 SB · 3.3 WAR
249/333/465  ·  21 HR  ·  27 SB  ·  2.2 WAR/yr
over 2 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$16M
worth $35M, owed $19M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$18M
average case $+20M, less $2M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE91%
91% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL2 yr
2.2 WAR a year on average
$+18M risk-adjusted × 91% confidence
= $+16M trade value
#122
STL · SS · 25y
+$16M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$7M+$19M▲+$48M
2027Arb-1$4.0M2.0+$12
2028Arb-2$7.3M1.6+$5
2029Arb-3$10M1.5+$2
TOT$22M5.1+$19
0.01.22.5273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB532 PA · .232/.308/.317 · 5 HR · 10 SB · 1.0 WAR
241/310/346  ·  8 HR  ·  20 SB  ·  1.7 WAR/yr
over 3 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$19M
worth $38M, owed $19M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$18M
average case $+20M, less $2M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE90%
90% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
1.7 WAR a year on average
$+18M risk-adjusted × 90% confidence
= $+16M trade value
#123
Seiya Suzuki NTC
CHC · RF · 32y
+$16M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$10M▲+$41M
2027Arb-3$14M2.8+$10
TOT$14M2.8+$10
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AA17 PA · .429/.471/.571 · 0 HR · 0 SB
MLB634 PA · .270/.368/.473 · 26 HR · 3 SB · 3.5 WAR
260/350/476  ·  24 HR  ·  6 SB  ·  2.8 WAR/yr
over 1 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$10M
worth $24M, owed $14M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$16M
average case $+16M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE99%
99% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL1 yr
2.8 WAR a year on average
$+16M risk-adjusted × 99% confidence
= $+16M trade value
#124
CWS · C · 25y
+$16M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$1M+$20M▲+$47M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.0+$7
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.1+$7
2029Arb-1$2.7M1.1+$5
2030Arb-2$4.0M0.9+$0
2031Arb-3$5.0M0.7+$0
TOT$13M4.8+$20
0.00.81.6273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA58 PA · .358/.414/.566 · 3 HR · 0 SB
MLB144 PA · .210/.336/.361 · 5 HR · 0 SB · 0.7 WAR
228/319/371  ·  10 HR  ·  4 SB  ·  1.0 WAR/yr
over 5 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$20M
worth $23M, owed $4M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$21M
average case $+22M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE75%
75% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+21M risk-adjusted × 75% confidence
= $+16M trade value
#125
MIA · 2B · 27y
+$16M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$7M+$18M▲+$50M
2027Arb-1$3.2M1.6+$10
2028Arb-2$8.3M2.0+$7
2029Arb-3$11M1.6+$2
TOT$23M5.2+$19
0.01.22.5273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB595 PA · .280/.360/.371 · 6 HR · 21 SB · 2.6 WAR
276/347/356  ·  4 HR  ·  22 SB  ·  1.7 WAR/yr
over 3 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$18M
worth $38M, owed $20M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$18M
average case $+20M, less $2M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE88%
88% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
1.7 WAR a year on average
$+18M risk-adjusted × 88% confidence
= $+16M trade value
#126
ARI · SS · 22y
+$16M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$22M▲+$89M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.5—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.6+$2
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.0+$6
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.4+$8
2031Arb-1$5.2M1.4+$5
2032Arb-2$8.4M1.4+$3
2033Arb-3$11M1.3+$1
TOT$27M7.1+$24
0.00.91.9273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AA556 PA · .281/.344/.440 · 16 HR · 12 SB
253/320/383  ·  13 HR  ·  12 SB  ·  1.2 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$22M
worth $36M, owed $15M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$35M
average case $+35M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE45%
45% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.2 WAR a year on average
$+35M risk-adjusted × 45% confidence
= $+16M trade value
#127
MIL · CF · 28y
+$16M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$10M+$21M▲+$71M
2027Arb-2$10M3.0+$17
2028Arb-3$14M2.3+$4
TOT$24M5.3+$21
0.01.53.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB531 PA · .262/.354/.416 · 11 HR · 14 SB · 2.6 WAR
251/339/424  ·  13 HR  ·  27 SB  ·  2.6 WAR/yr
over 2 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$21M
worth $44M, owed $23M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$24M
average case $+26M, less $2M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE66%
66% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL2 yr
2.6 WAR a year on average
$+24M risk-adjusted × 66% confidence
= $+16M trade value
#128
ARI · CF · 24y
+$16M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$4M+$24M▲+$53M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M0.4+$1
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.2+$8
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.4+$9
2030Arb-1$5.0M1.4+$5
2031Arb-2$7.9M1.2+$2
2032Arb-3$9.8M0.9+$0
TOT$25M6.5+$25
0.00.91.9273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA234 PA · .288/.405/.492 · 6 HR · 6 SB
MLB284 PA · .256/.325/.368 · 3 HR · 7 SB · 0.5 WAR
227/314/369  ·  15 HR  ·  30 SB  ·  1.1 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$24M
worth $33M, owed $10M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$23M
average case $+24M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE68%
68% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL4 yr
1.2 WAR a year on average
$+23M risk-adjusted × 68% confidence
= $+16M trade value
#129
PHI · 2B · 29y
+$15M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$10M▲+$38M
2027Arb-3$14M2.8+$10
TOT$14M2.8+$10
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB608 PA · .256/.334/.401 · 10 HR · 27 SB · 3.0 WAR
258/335/391  ·  10 HR  ·  26 SB  ·  2.8 WAR/yr
over 1 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$10M
worth $24M, owed $14M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$16M
average case $+16M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE99%
99% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL1 yr
2.8 WAR a year on average
$+16M risk-adjusted × 99% confidence
= $+15M trade value
#130
CIN · SS · 23y
+$15M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$7M+$23M▲+$64M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M0.6+$2
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.2+$8
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.5+$10
2030Arb-1$6.6M1.6+$5
2031Arb-2$11M1.6+$2
2032Arb-3$15M1.4+$0
TOT$35M7.9+$27
0.01.22.4273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA354 PA · .301/.367/.524 · 15 HR · 13 SB
MLB160 PA · .223/.266/.264 · 0 HR · 1 SB · -0.1 WAR
255/307/386  ·  13 HR  ·  25 SB  ·  1.3 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$23M
worth $44M, owed $22M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$25M
average case $+26M, less $2M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE62%
62% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.4 WAR a year on average
$+25M risk-adjusted × 62% confidence
= $+15M trade value
#131
OAK · 2B · 24y
+$15M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$6M+$20M▲+$72M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M0.7+$2
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.0+$7
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.3+$8
2030Arb-1$5.2M1.3+$4
2031Arb-2$7.9M1.1+$1
2032Arb-3$9.8M0.9+$0
TOT$25M6.3+$23
0.00.91.8273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA/AA375 PA · .321/.365/.474 · 7 HR · 15 SB
MLB74 PA · .366/.392/.507 · 1 HR · 0 SB · 0.7 WAR
278/323/398  ·  9 HR  ·  13 SB  ·  1.1 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$20M
worth $30M, owed $10M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$26M
average case $+28M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE58%
58% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL4 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+26M risk-adjusted × 58% confidence
= $+15M trade value
#132
DET · 2B · 24y
+$15M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$2M+$20M▲+$46M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M0.8+$2
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.2+$8
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.2+$8
2030Arb-1$3.7M1.1+$4
2031Arb-2$5.3M0.9+$0
2032Arb-3$6.3M0.6+$0
TOT$18M5.8+$22
0.00.81.7273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA63 PA · .232/.317/.429 · 3 HR · 0 SB
MLB364 PA · .264/.322/.424 · 10 HR · 3 SB · 1.3 WAR
245/313/396  ·  16 HR  ·  6 SB  ·  1.0 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$20M
worth $24M, owed $4M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$20M
average case $+21M, less $0M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE72%
72% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+20M risk-adjusted × 72% confidence
= $+15M trade value
#133
MIN · C · 20y
+$15M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$23M▲+$99M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.3—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.4—
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M0.9+$2
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.2+$7
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M1.4+$8
2032Arb-1$4.6M1.5+$5
2033Arb-2$8.1M1.5+$3
2034Arb-3$11M1.4+$1
TOT$27M7.9+$27
0.01.02.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A+520 PA · .221/.281/.418 · 22 HR · 2 SB
241/295/436  ·  19 HR  ·  4 SB  ·  1.3 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$23M
worth $36M, owed $12M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$39M
average case $+39M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE38%
38% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.3 WAR a year on average
$+39M risk-adjusted × 38% confidence
= $+15M trade value
#134
Isaac Paredes OPT
HOU · 3B · 28y
+$14M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$4M+$8M▲+$45M
2027Arb-3$12M2.4+$7
2028CLU OPT·EXE$13M1.7+$1
2029CLU OPT·DEC$12M1.4—
TOT$12M2.4+$7
0.01.42.9273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB659 PA · .262/.360/.447 · 25 HR · 0 SB · 3.8 WAR
233/339/403  ·  22 HR  ·  1 SB  ·  2.0 WAR/yr
over 2 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$8M
worth $32M, owed $24M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$15M
average case $+16M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE99%
99% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL2 yr
2.0 WAR a year on average
$+15M risk-adjusted × 99% confidence
= $+14M trade value
#135
BAL · C · 23y
+$14M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$22M▲+$77M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.9—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.6+$2
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.1+$7
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.3+$8
2031Arb-1$4.0M1.3+$5
2032Arb-2$6.4M1.2+$3
2033Arb-3$7.9M1.0+$1
TOT$21M6.5+$25
0.00.91.8273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA/AA/A+397 PA · .288/.375/.544 · 24 HR · 7 SB
241/310/396  ·  14 HR  ·  6 SB  ·  1.1 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$22M
worth $33M, owed $11M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$32M
average case $+32M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE45%
45% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+32M risk-adjusted × 45% confidence
= $+14M trade value
#136
MIL · SS · 20y
+$14M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$15M▲+$76M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.3—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.2+$0
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M0.7+$2
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.1+$6
2031Arb-1$4.8M1.4+$5
2032Arb-2$8.7M1.5+$3
2033Arb-3$13M1.6+$1
TOT$29M6.5+$18
0.01.12.1273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AA/A+280 PA · .291/.371/.402 · 3 HR · 33 SB
251/316/397  ·  13 HR  ·  18 SB  ·  1.1 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$15M
worth $30M, owed $15M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$29M
average case $+29M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE50%
50% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL4 yr
1.3 WAR a year on average
$+29M risk-adjusted × 50% confidence
= $+14M trade value
#137
WSH · SS · 20y
+$14M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$30M▲+$129M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.5—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.3—
2029MiLB$0.0M0.7—
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.2+$7
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M1.4+$8
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M1.6+$8
2033Arb-1$5.6M1.6+$5
2034Arb-2$9.1M1.6+$3
2035Arb-3$12M1.4+$1
TOT$30M8.8+$32
0.01.12.1273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A344 PA · .242/.337/.401 · 10 HR · 6 SB
243/312/420  ·  19 HR  ·  9 SB  ·  1.5 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$30M
worth $43M, owed $13M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$51M
average case $+51M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE28%
28% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
1.3 WAR a year on average
$+51M risk-adjusted × 28% confidence
= $+14M trade value
#138
PHI · SS · 23y
+$14M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$35M▲+$158M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.9—
2028MiLB$0.0M1.1—
2029MiLB$0.0M1.8—
2030MiLB$0.0M2.2—
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2.2+$12
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2.1+$11
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M1.8+$9
2034Arb-1$4.8M1.5+$5
2035Arb-2$6.7M1.2+$2
2036Arb-3$6.9M0.7+$0
TOT$21M9.5+$39
0.01.42.7273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS INTL49 PA · .300/.571/.467 · 0 HR · 3 SB
235/324/395  ·  16 HR  ·  21 SB  ·  1.6 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$35M
worth $40M, owed $5M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$61M
average case $+61M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE23%
23% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.5 WAR a year on average
$+61M risk-adjusted × 23% confidence
= $+14M trade value
#139
CLE · SS · 23y
+$14M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$6M+$22M▲+$58M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M0.5+$1
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.3+$9
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.4+$9
2030Arb-1$6.1M1.5+$5
2031Arb-2$10M1.4+$2
2032Arb-3$14M1.3+$0
TOT$32M7.4+$26
0.01.12.2273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA/AA419 PA · .300/.401/.474 · 13 HR · 11 SB
MLB139 PA · .213/.281/.291 · 2 HR · 1 SB · 0.3 WAR
251/325/379  ·  12 HR  ·  10 SB  ·  1.2 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$22M
worth $42M, owed $20M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$23M
average case $+24M, less $2M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE61%
61% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.3 WAR a year on average
$+23M risk-adjusted × 61% confidence
= $+14M trade value
#140
MIN · SS · 24y
+$14M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$5M+$19M▲+$62M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M0.6+$2
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.0+$7
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.2+$8
2030Arb-1$4.6M1.1+$4
2031Arb-2$7.2M1.0+$1
2032Arb-3$9.2M0.8+$0
TOT$23M5.7+$21
0.00.81.7273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA343 PA · .271/.367/.478 · 14 HR · 17 SB
MLB128 PA · .274/.328/.393 · 3 HR · 1 SB · 0.9 WAR
236/308/380  ·  15 HR  ·  15 SB  ·  1.0 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$19M
worth $28M, owed $9M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$23M
average case $+24M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE61%
61% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL4 yr
1.0 WAR a year on average
$+23M risk-adjusted × 61% confidence
= $+14M trade value
#141
TOR · C · 26y
+$14M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$2M+$15M▲+$46M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.2+$9
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.0+$7
2029Arb-1$2.1M0.9+$1
2030Arb-2$3.3M0.8+$0
2031Arb-3$4.0M0.7+$0
TOT$11M4.6+$17
0.00.81.7273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA17 PA · .200/.294/.400 · 1 HR · 0 SB
MLB271 PA · .222/.307/.372 · 9 HR · 2 SB · 1.1 WAR
224/300/384  ·  9 HR  ·  2 SB  ·  0.9 WAR/yr
over 5 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$15M
worth $17M, owed $2M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$21M
average case $+21M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE67%
67% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL2 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+21M risk-adjusted × 67% confidence
= $+14M trade value
#142
TB · C · 20y
+$14M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$30M▲+$123M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.5—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.6—
2029MiLB$0.0M1.1—
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.3+$8
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M1.5+$8
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M1.5+$8
2033Arb-1$4.8M1.5+$5
2034Arb-2$7.7M1.4+$3
2035Arb-3$10M1.3+$1
TOT$26M8.5+$33
0.01.02.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A+/INTL548 PA · .253/.369/.441 · 21 HR · 10 SB
226/322/403  ·  16 HR  ·  5 SB  ·  1.4 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$30M
worth $42M, owed $11M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$49M
average case $+49M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE28%
28% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
1.3 WAR a year on average
$+49M risk-adjusted × 28% confidence
= $+14M trade value
#143
CWS · 1B · 27y
+$14M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$4M+$22M▲+$53M
2027Ext$17M3.7+$21
TOT$17M3.7+$21
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB553 PA · .207/.347/.478 · 35 HR · 1 SB · 1.7 WAR
224/344/508  ·  33 HR  ·  3 SB  ·  3.7 WAR/yr
over 1 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$22M
worth $38M, owed $17M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$22M
average case $+23M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE63%
63% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL1 yr
3.7 WAR a year on average
$+22M risk-adjusted × 63% confidence
= $+14M trade value
#144
PIT · OF · 20y
+$14M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$22M▲+$93M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.5—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.5—
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M0.9+$2
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.2+$7
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M1.4+$8
2032Arb-1$5.0M1.4+$5
2033Arb-2$8.4M1.4+$3
2034Arb-3$12M1.4+$1
TOT$28M7.7+$25
0.01.02.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A+/A475 PA · .235/.366/.509 · 27 HR · 11 SB
226/316/448  ·  29 HR  ·  18 SB  ·  1.3 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$22M
worth $35M, owed $13M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$36M
average case $+36M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE38%
38% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.3 WAR a year on average
$+36M risk-adjusted × 38% confidence
= $+14M trade value
#145
MIN · CF · 24y
+$14M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$5M+$19M▲+$62M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.0+$7
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.8+$2
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.1+$7
2030Arb-1$4.2M1.1+$4
2031Arb-2$6.4M1.0+$2
2032Arb-3$8.0M0.8+$0
TOT$21M5.8+$22
0.00.81.6273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA/A+247 PA · .277/.433/.497 · 11 HR · 7 SB
MLB48 PA · .178/.229/.400 · 2 HR · 0 SB · 0.0 WAR
226/340/393  ·  11 HR  ·  8 SB  ·  1.0 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$19M
worth $28M, owed $8M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$24M
average case $+25M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE57%
57% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL4 yr
1.0 WAR a year on average
$+24M risk-adjusted × 57% confidence
= $+14M trade value
#146
MIL · SS · 23y
+$13M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$19M▲+$65M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.6—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.7+$2
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.0+$6
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.2+$7
2031Arb-1$4.4M1.2+$4
2032Arb-2$6.7M1.1+$2
2033Arb-3$8.4M0.8+$0
TOT$22M6.0+$21
0.00.81.7273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA/INTL410 PA · .231/.341/.380 · 10 HR · 27 SB
230/312/381  ·  13 HR  ·  19 SB  ·  1.0 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$19M
worth $26M, owed $8M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$27M
average case $+27M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE50%
50% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL4 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+27M risk-adjusted × 50% confidence
= $+13M trade value
#147
COL · 1B · 27y
+$13M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$3M+$19M▲+$41M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.7+$13
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.0+$7
2029Arb-1$2.0M0.8+$1
2030Arb-2$2.3M0.4+$0
2031Arb-3$2.3M0.0+$0
TOT$8.2M3.9+$21
0.01.12.2273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB631 PA · .300/.390/.453 · 16 HR · 0 SB · 2.8 WAR
246/335/379  ·  13 HR  ·  1 SB  ·  1.0 WAR/yr
over 5 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$19M
worth $21M, owed $2M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$21M
average case $+21M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE63%
63% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL2 yr
1.4 WAR a year on average
$+21M risk-adjusted × 63% confidence
= $+13M trade value
#148
STL · RF · 25y
+$13M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$5M+$17M▲+$37M
2027Arb-1$3.0M1.5+$9
2028Arb-2$5.5M1.4+$5
2029Arb-3$7.9M1.3+$3
TOT$16M4.2+$17
0.01.02.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB667 PA · .269/.327/.466 · 29 HR · 22 SB · 2.9 WAR
252/312/435  ·  21 HR  ·  24 SB  ·  1.4 WAR/yr
over 3 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$17M
worth $31M, owed $14M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$15M
average case $+16M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE89%
89% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
1.4 WAR a year on average
$+15M risk-adjusted × 89% confidence
= $+13M trade value
#149
HOU · SS · 29y
+$13M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$8M▲+$33M
2027Arb-3$13M2.6+$8
TOT$13M2.6+$8
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB483 PA · .277/.325/.477 · 22 HR · 12 SB · 3.0 WAR
272/325/436  ·  15 HR  ·  27 SB  ·  2.6 WAR/yr
over 1 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$8M
worth $21M, owed $13M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$13M
average case $+13M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE99%
99% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL1 yr
2.6 WAR a year on average
$+13M risk-adjusted × 99% confidence
= $+13M trade value
#150
SF · C · 25y
+$13M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$5M+$18M▲+$61M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M0.7+$2
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.1+$7
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.1+$7
2030Arb-1$4.1M1.1+$4
2031Arb-2$6.5M0.9+$0
2032Arb-3$8.3M0.8+$0
TOT$21M5.7+$20
0.00.81.6273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA225 PA · .268/.347/.397 · 5 HR · 7 SB
MLB58 PA · .235/.316/.412 · 2 HR · 1 SB · 0.7 WAR
267/334/377  ·  8 HR  ·  11 SB  ·  1.0 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$18M
worth $22M, owed $4M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$23M
average case $+24M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE58%
58% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+23M risk-adjusted × 58% confidence
= $+13M trade value
#151
CWS · CF · 27y
+$13M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$2M+$20M▲+$41M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.0+$7
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.3+$9
2029Arb-1$3.2M1.0+$4
2030Arb-2$4.4M0.7+$0
2031Arb-3$5.6M0.0+$0
TOT$15M4.0+$20
0.00.91.8273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB491 PA · .265/.337/.437 · 12 HR · 8 SB · 2.4 WAR
240/315/380  ·  11 HR  ·  19 SB  ·  1.0 WAR/yr
over 4 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$20M
worth $24M, owed $4M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$21M
average case $+21M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE62%
62% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+21M risk-adjusted × 62% confidence
= $+13M trade value
#152
ATL · 2B · 20y
+$13M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$20M▲+$88M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.7—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.4—
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M0.7+$2
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.0+$6
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M1.3+$7
2032Arb-1$5.0M1.4+$5
2033Arb-2$8.7M1.5+$3
2034Arb-3$12M1.4+$1
TOT$29M7.3+$23
0.01.02.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A+/A/INTL458 PA · .281/.410/.465 · 12 HR · 49 SB
240/322/403  ·  18 HR  ·  15 SB  ·  1.2 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$20M
worth $33M, owed $14M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$34M
average case $+34M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE38%
38% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.2 WAR a year on average
$+34M risk-adjusted × 38% confidence
= $+13M trade value
#153
SEA · RF · 29y
+$13M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$4M+$19M▲+$46M
2027Arb-1$4.2M2.1+$13
2028Arb-2$5.9M1.4+$5
2029Arb-3$6.3M1.0+$2
TOT$16M4.5+$19
0.01.32.6273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB533 PA · .264/.336/.484 · 23 HR · 2 SB · 2.6 WAR
264/331/469  ·  19 HR  ·  2 SB  ·  1.5 WAR/yr
over 3 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$19M
worth $33M, owed $14M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$19M
average case $+20M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE67%
67% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
1.5 WAR a year on average
$+19M risk-adjusted × 67% confidence
= $+13M trade value
#154
TB · SS · 20y
+$13M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$33M▲+$156M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.5—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.6—
2029MiLB$0.0M1.1—
2030MiLB$0.0M1.5—
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M1.7+$9
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M1.8+$9
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M1.8+$9
2034Arb-1$5.8M1.7+$5
2035Arb-2$9.1M1.5+$3
2036Arb-3$11M1.3+$1
TOT$29M9.8+$36
0.01.12.3273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A518 PA · .298/.379/.450 · 11 HR · 16 SB
254/322/418  ·  19 HR  ·  8 SB  ·  1.6 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$33M
worth $44M, owed $11M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$60M
average case $+60M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE21%
21% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
1.5 WAR a year on average
$+60M risk-adjusted × 21% confidence
= $+13M trade value
#155
WSH · RF · 25y
+$13M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$4M+$16M▲+$37M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.3+$10
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.0+$7
2029Arb-1$3.2M0.9+$1
2030Arb-2$4.4M0.6+$0
2031Arb-3$5.0M0.3+$0
TOT$14M4.1+$17
0.00.91.8273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA177 PA · .258/.345/.432 · 5 HR · 7 SB
MLB443 PA · .223/.289/.374 · 13 HR · 12 SB · -0.1 WAR
234/303/387  ·  17 HR  ·  28 SB  ·  0.8 WAR/yr
over 5 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$16M
worth $18M, owed $2M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$15M
average case $+16M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE81%
81% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL2 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+15M risk-adjusted × 81% confidence
= $+13M trade value
#156
COL · SS · 21y
+$13M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$15M▲+$74M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.7—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.5+$1
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M0.9+$2
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.2+$7
2031Arb-1$5.0M1.4+$5
2032Arb-2$8.7M1.5+$3
2033Arb-3$12M1.4+$1
TOT$29M6.9+$19
0.01.02.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A+/A/ROK413 PA · .308/.400/.551 · 19 HR · 27 SB
238/313/406  ·  17 HR  ·  13 SB  ·  1.1 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$15M
worth $29M, owed $14M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$28M
average case $+28M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE45%
45% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL4 yr
1.3 WAR a year on average
$+28M risk-adjusted × 45% confidence
= $+13M trade value
#157
STL · SS · 19y
+$13M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$34M▲+$174M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.6—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.4—
2029MiLB$0.0M0.8—
2030MiLB$0.0M1.1—
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M1.4+$8
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M1.8+$9
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2.0+$10
2034Arb-1$6.6M2.0+$6
2035Arb-2$11M1.9+$4
2036Arb-3$15M1.7+$1
TOT$35M10.8+$38
0.01.22.5273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A/ROK367 PA · .252/.409/.483 · 16 HR · 28 SB
242/339/416  ·  20 HR  ·  11 SB  ·  1.8 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$34M
worth $48M, owed $14M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$66M
average case $+66M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE19%
19% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
1.6 WAR a year on average
$+66M risk-adjusted × 19% confidence
= $+13M trade value
#158
CLE · OF · 19y
+$12M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$26M▲+$109M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.4—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.3—
2029MiLB$0.0M0.7—
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.0+$6
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M1.2+$7
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M1.4+$7
2033Arb-1$5.0M1.5+$5
2034Arb-2$8.7M1.5+$3
2035Arb-3$12M1.4+$1
TOT$29M8.0+$28
0.01.02.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A+/A337 PA · .301/.409/.484 · 11 HR · 7 SB
257/342/420  ·  18 HR  ·  11 SB  ·  1.3 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$26M
worth $39M, owed $12M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$43M
average case $+43M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE28%
28% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
1.2 WAR a year on average
$+43M risk-adjusted × 28% confidence
= $+12M trade value
#159
LAD · RF · 24y
+$12M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$16M▲+$58M
2027MiLB$0.0M1.2—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.7+$2
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.1+$7
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.1+$6
2031Arb-1$3.6M1.0+$4
2032Arb-2$5.0M0.9+$0
2033Arb-3$6.0M0.7+$0
TOT$17M5.5+$19
0.00.81.6273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AA/A+492 PA · .306/.459/.526 · 17 HR · 13 SB
239/351/410  ·  14 HR  ·  9 SB  ·  0.9 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$16M
worth $20M, owed $4M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$24M
average case $+24M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE50%
50% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
1.0 WAR a year on average
$+24M risk-adjusted × 50% confidence
= $+12M trade value
#160
HOU · C · 28y
+$12M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$12M▲+$27M
2027Arb-2$5.1M1.7+$8
2028Arb-3$7.8M1.4+$3
TOT$13M3.1+$12
0.01.12.2273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB361 PA · .285/.313/.459 · 14 HR · 0 SB · 1.9 WAR
272/302/434  ·  16 HR  ·  1 SB  ·  1.5 WAR/yr
over 2 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$12M
worth $24M, owed $12M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$13M
average case $+13M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE91%
91% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL2 yr
1.6 WAR a year on average
$+13M risk-adjusted × 91% confidence
= $+12M trade value
#161
ARI · C · 20y
+$12M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$29M▲+$116M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.7—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.5—
2029MiLB$0.0M1.0—
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.3+$8
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M1.4+$8
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M1.5+$8
2033Arb-1$4.6M1.4+$5
2034Arb-2$7.7M1.4+$3
2035Arb-3$10M1.2+$1
TOT$25M8.2+$31
0.01.02.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A+/A428 PA · .266/.376/.444 · 12 HR · 5 SB
243/323/398  ·  12 HR  ·  5 SB  ·  1.4 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$29M
worth $40M, owed $11M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$46M
average case $+46M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE25%
25% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
1.3 WAR a year on average
$+46M risk-adjusted × 25% confidence
= $+12M trade value
#162
MIA · SS · 21y
+$12M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$13M▲+$60M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.4—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.3+$0
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M0.7+$2
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.1+$6
2031Arb-1$4.4M1.2+$4
2032Arb-2$7.7M1.3+$3
2033Arb-3$11M1.3+$1
TOT$26M5.9+$16
0.00.91.9273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A+373 PA · .236/.389/.378 · 7 HR · 21 SB
207/311/324  ·  10 HR  ·  18 SB  ·  1.0 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$13M
worth $26M, owed $13M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$23M
average case $+23M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE50%
50% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL4 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+23M risk-adjusted × 50% confidence
= $+12M trade value
#163
NYY · C · 28y
+$11M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$3M+$18M▲+$38M
2027Arb-1$3.1M1.7+$10
2028Arb-2$4.4M1.2+$5
2029Arb-3$5.2M1.0+$3
TOT$13M3.9+$18
0.01.12.2273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB388 PA · .186/.292/.332 · 14 HR · 4 SB · 0.7 WAR
209/297/372  ·  11 HR  ·  2 SB  ·  1.3 WAR/yr
over 3 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$18M
worth $29M, owed $11M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$16M
average case $+17M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE68%
68% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
1.3 WAR a year on average
$+16M risk-adjusted × 68% confidence
= $+11M trade value
#164
BOS · RF · 20y
+$11M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$13M▲+$58M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.3—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.3+$0
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M0.7+$2
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.0+$6
2031Arb-1$4.2M1.2+$4
2032Arb-2$7.4M1.3+$3
2033Arb-3$11M1.3+$1
TOT$25M5.8+$16
0.00.91.9273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AA/A+507 PA · .266/.385/.449 · 19 HR · 12 SB
246/328/423  ·  23 HR  ·  10 SB  ·  1.0 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$13M
worth $25M, owed $13M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$22M
average case $+22M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE50%
50% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL4 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+22M risk-adjusted × 50% confidence
= $+11M trade value
#165
NYY · 2B · 29y
+$11M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$4M+$8M▲+$33M
2027Ext$13M2.6+$9
TOT$13M2.6+$9
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB532 PA · .231/.312/.399 · 19 HR · 41 SB · 1.8 WAR
237/317/425  ·  19 HR  ·  32 SB  ·  2.6 WAR/yr
over 1 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$8M
worth $21M, owed $13M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$11M
average case $+12M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE99%
99% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL1 yr
2.6 WAR a year on average
$+11M risk-adjusted × 99% confidence
= $+11M trade value
#166
SEA · C · 24y
+$11M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$28M▲+$107M
2027MiLB$0.0M1.3—
2028MiLB$0.0M1.1—
2029MiLB$0.0M1.6—
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.7+$10
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M1.6+$9
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M1.4+$7
2033Arb-1$3.8M1.2+$4
2034Arb-2$4.7M0.9+$0
2035Arb-3$2.0M0.2+$0
TOT$13M7.0+$30
0.01.12.2273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AA/A+/A/INTL547 PA · .259/.411/.522 · 31 HR · 14 SB
222/318/416  ·  19 HR  ·  5 SB  ·  1.2 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$28M
worth $31M, owed $3M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$43M
average case $+43M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE25%
25% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL4 yr
1.3 WAR a year on average
$+43M risk-adjusted × 25% confidence
= $+11M trade value
#167
DET · RF · 22y
+$11M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$12M▲+$50M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.6—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.5+$1
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M0.9+$2
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.1+$6
2031Arb-1$4.0M1.2+$4
2032Arb-2$6.7M1.1+$2
2033Arb-3$8.9M1.0+$0
TOT$22M5.8+$17
0.00.81.7273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AA/INTL630 PA · .282/.371/.493 · 30 HR · 26 SB
242/316/424  ·  23 HR  ·  15 SB  ·  1.0 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$12M
worth $24M, owed $11M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$20M
average case $+20M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE55%
55% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL4 yr
1.0 WAR a year on average
$+20M risk-adjusted × 55% confidence
= $+11M trade value
#168
LAA · SS · 21y
+$11M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$13M▲+$55M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.3—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.3+$0
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M0.8+$2
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.1+$6
2031Arb-1$4.4M1.2+$4
2032Arb-2$7.4M1.2+$2
2033Arb-3$10M1.2+$1
TOT$25M5.8+$16
0.00.91.8273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AA/A+/INTL438 PA · .260/.377/.492 · 17 HR · 10 SB
217/294/404  ·  20 HR  ·  10 SB  ·  1.0 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$13M
worth $25M, owed $12M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$22M
average case $+22M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE50%
50% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL4 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+22M risk-adjusted × 50% confidence
= $+11M trade value
#169
WSH · CF · 28y
+$11M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$5M+$16M▲+$39M
2027Arb-1$3.8M1.9+$11
2028Arb-2$6.2M1.3+$4
2029Arb-3$7.4M1.0+$1
TOT$17M4.2+$16
0.01.22.4273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB471 PA · .252/.318/.390 · 10 HR · 18 SB · 1.4 WAR
256/322/364  ·  6 HR  ·  19 SB  ·  1.4 WAR/yr
over 3 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$16M
worth $31M, owed $15M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$15M
average case $+17M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE69%
69% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
1.4 WAR a year on average
$+15M risk-adjusted × 69% confidence
= $+11M trade value
#170
BAL · 2B · 23y
+$11M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$5M+$14M▲+$32M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M0.7+$2
2028Arb-1$2.7M1.2+$6
2029Arb-2$5.0M1.3+$5
2030Arb-3$7.6M1.3+$3
TOT$16M4.5+$16
0.00.91.8273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA67 PA · .183/.269/.300 · 1 HR · 1 SB
MLB354 PA · .229/.300/.340 · 7 HR · 8 SB · -0.0 WAR
247/319/390  ·  11 HR  ·  18 SB  ·  1.1 WAR/yr
over 4 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$14M
worth $25M, owed $12M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$13M
average case $+14M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE84%
84% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
1.2 WAR a year on average
$+13M risk-adjusted × 84% confidence
= $+11M trade value
#171
KC · C · 22y
+$10M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$13M▲+$52M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.6—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.5+$1
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M0.8+$2
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.1+$6
2031Arb-1$4.0M1.2+$4
2032Arb-2$6.7M1.2+$3
2033Arb-3$8.9M1.0+$0
TOT$22M5.8+$17
0.00.81.7273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A+/INTL389 PA · .282/.367/.481 · 14 HR · 10 SB
232/304/398  ·  14 HR  ·  6 SB  ·  1.0 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$13M
worth $24M, owed $11M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$21M
average case $+21M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE50%
50% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL4 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+21M risk-adjusted × 50% confidence
= $+10M trade value
#172
SEA · RF · 22y
+$10M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$7M+$12M▲+$57M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M0.5+$1
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.8+$2
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.1+$7
2030Arb-1$4.8M1.2+$4
2031Arb-2$8.3M1.3+$2
2032Arb-3$12M1.2+$0
TOT$28M6.1+$17
0.01.02.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA/AA542 PA · .249/.369/.558 · 38 HR · 8 SB
MLB59 PA · .212/.305/.481 · 4 HR · 0 SB · -0.4 WAR
227/315/459  ·  33 HR  ·  7 SB  ·  1.0 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$12M
worth $28M, owed $16M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$18M
average case $+20M, less $2M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE58%
58% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL4 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+18M risk-adjusted × 58% confidence
= $+10M trade value
#173
LAD · 3B · 21y
+$10M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$27M▲+$100M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.4—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.3—
2029MiLB$0.0M0.8—
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.1+$6
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M1.4+$8
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M1.4+$7
2033Arb-1$4.6M1.4+$5
2034Arb-2$7.1M1.2+$2
2035Arb-3$8.9M1.0+$1
TOT$23M7.5+$29
0.00.91.9273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A+/A/INTL458 PA · .295/.400/.509 · 17 HR · 2 SB
245/322/425  ·  19 HR  ·  8 SB  ·  1.2 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$27M
worth $37M, owed $10M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$41M
average case $+41M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE25%
25% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+41M risk-adjusted × 25% confidence
= $+10M trade value
#174
CLE · SS · 26y
+$10M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$4M+$12M▲+$30M
2027Arb-1$3.0M1.5+$9
2028Arb-2$5.2M1.1+$3
2029Arb-3$6.3M0.9+$0
TOT$14M3.5+$12
0.01.02.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB592 PA · .253/.313/.391 · 15 HR · 20 SB · 2.2 WAR
236/302/364  ·  12 HR  ·  15 SB  ·  1.2 WAR/yr
over 3 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$12M
worth $20M, owed $8M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$12M
average case $+13M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE87%
87% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL2 yr
1.3 WAR a year on average
$+12M risk-adjusted × 87% confidence
= $+10M trade value
#175
BAL · C · 23y
+$10M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$13M▲+$50M
2027MiLB$0.0M1.0—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.5+$1
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M0.9+$2
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.1+$6
2031Arb-1$3.6M1.2+$5
2032Arb-2$5.7M1.1+$3
2033Arb-3$7.4M0.9+$0
TOT$19M5.7+$17
0.00.81.7273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A+/INTL395 PA · .288/.392/.520 · 18 HR · 23 SB
241/309/419  ·  14 HR  ·  6 SB  ·  1.0 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$13M
worth $19M, owed $6M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$20M
average case $+20M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE50%
50% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+20M risk-adjusted × 50% confidence
= $+10M trade value
#176
DET · C · 22y
+$10M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$13M▲+$51M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.7—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.4+$1
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M0.8+$2
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.1+$6
2031Arb-1$3.8M1.2+$5
2032Arb-2$6.4M1.1+$2
2033Arb-3$8.4M1.0+$1
TOT$21M5.6+$17
0.00.81.7273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA/AA/A160 PA · .259/.362/.504 · 9 HR · 0 SB
230/311/421  ·  17 HR  ·  2 SB  ·  0.9 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$13M
worth $24M, owed $10M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$20M
average case $+20M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE50%
50% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL4 yr
1.0 WAR a year on average
$+20M risk-adjusted × 50% confidence
= $+10M trade value
#177
BOS · C · 29y
+$10M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$8M▲+$25M
2027Arb-3$9.8M2.2+$8
TOT$9.8M2.2+$8
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB410 PA · .242/.315/.426 · 13 HR · 0 SB · 1.8 WAR
246/324/412  ·  10 HR  ·  1 SB  ·  2.2 WAR/yr
over 1 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$8M
worth $18M, owed $10M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$10M
average case $+10M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE96%
96% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL1 yr
2.2 WAR a year on average
$+10M risk-adjusted × 96% confidence
= $+10M trade value
#178
WSH · SS · 21y
+$10M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$26M▲+$98M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.5—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.5—
2029MiLB$0.0M0.9—
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.2+$7
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M1.4+$8
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M1.4+$7
2033Arb-1$4.8M1.3+$4
2034Arb-2$7.4M1.2+$2
2035Arb-3$8.9M0.9+$0
TOT$24M7.4+$28
0.00.91.9273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AA/A+515 PA · .251/.339/.441 · 20 HR · 15 SB
239/307/405  ·  20 HR  ·  9 SB  ·  1.2 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$26M
worth $33M, owed $7M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$40M
average case $+40M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE25%
25% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.2 WAR a year on average
$+40M risk-adjusted × 25% confidence
= $+10M trade value
#179
CHC · C · 26y
+$10M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$16M▲+$52M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.9—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.8+$2
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.1+$7
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.1+$6
2031Arb-1$3.6M1.0+$4
2032Arb-2$4.7M0.8+$0
2033Arb-3$2.0M0.2+$0
TOT$13M5.0+$19
0.00.81.6273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA/AA/A+538 PA · .289/.403/.526 · 25 HR · 13 SB
226/310/387  ·  14 HR  ·  4 SB  ·  0.8 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$16M
worth $19M, owed $3M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$22M
average case $+22M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE45%
45% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
1.0 WAR a year on average
$+22M risk-adjusted × 45% confidence
= $+10M trade value
#180
MIL · CF · 20y
+$10M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$16M▲+$72M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.2—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.3—
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M0.7+$2
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.0+$6
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M1.2+$7
2032Arb-1$5.6M1.3+$4
2033Arb-2$9.4M1.3+$2
2034Arb-3$13M1.2+$0
TOT$31M6.7+$19
0.01.12.2273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AA/A+/INTL507 PA · .271/.351/.534 · 28 HR · 26 SB
232/305/433  ·  26 HR  ·  19 SB  ·  1.1 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$16M
worth $30M, owed $14M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$28M
average case $+28M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE34%
34% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+28M risk-adjusted × 34% confidence
= $+10M trade value
#181
CIN · C · 20y
+$10M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$25M▲+$92M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.6—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.3—
2029MiLB$0.0M0.7—
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.1+$6
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M1.2+$7
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M1.3+$7
2033Arb-1$4.2M1.3+$4
2034Arb-2$6.7M1.2+$2
2035Arb-3$8.9M1.1+$1
TOT$22M7.2+$27
0.00.91.8273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A/ROK329 PA · .303/.433/.580 · 15 HR · 5 SB
236/320/389  ·  12 HR  ·  6 SB  ·  1.2 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$25M
worth $35M, owed $10M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$38M
average case $+38M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE25%
25% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+38M risk-adjusted × 25% confidence
= $+10M trade value
#182
BAL · 3B · 28y
+$9M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$6M+$15M▲+$37M
2027Arb-1$2.6M1.3+$8
2028Arb-2$6.9M1.6+$6
2029Arb-3$8.9M1.4+$2
TOT$18M4.3+$16
0.01.12.1273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
268/320/468  ·  14 HR  ·  14 SB  ·  1.4 WAR/yr
over 3 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$15M
worth $31M, owed $16M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$14M
average case $+15M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE66%
66% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
1.4 WAR a year on average
$+14M risk-adjusted × 66% confidence
= $+9M trade value
#183
CLE · CF · 29y
+$9M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$6M▲+$22M
2027Arb-3$10M2.1+$6
TOT$10M2.1+$6
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB637 PA · .282/.382/.349 · 3 HR · 10 SB · 2.8 WAR
276/361/367  ·  6 HR  ·  11 SB  ·  2.1 WAR/yr
over 1 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$6M
worth $17M, owed $10M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$9M
average case $+9M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE100%
100% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL1 yr
2.1 WAR a year on average
$+9M risk-adjusted × 100% confidence
= $+9M trade value
#184
ATL · SS · 21y
+$9M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$12M▲+$51M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.3—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.4+$1
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M0.7+$2
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.0+$6
2031Arb-1$4.4M1.2+$4
2032Arb-2$7.4M1.2+$2
2033Arb-3$10M1.1+$0
TOT$25M5.6+$15
0.00.91.8273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AA/A+592 PA · .262/.357/.392 · 14 HR · 60 SB
234/306/362  ·  14 HR  ·  30 SB  ·  0.9 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$12M
worth $24M, owed $12M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$20M
average case $+20M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE45%
45% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL4 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+20M risk-adjusted × 45% confidence
= $+9M trade value
#185
MIA · LF · 29y
+$9M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$6M+$14M▲+$36M
2027Arb-1$3.4M1.7+$10
2028Arb-2$4.8M1.2+$5
2029Arb-3$5.3M0.9+$0
TOT$14M3.8+$15
0.01.12.2273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA19 PA · .176/.263/.176 · 0 HR · 0 SB
MLB512 PA · .239/.331/.459 · 21 HR · 1 SB · 2.1 WAR
241/323/463  ·  17 HR  ·  1 SB  ·  1.3 WAR/yr
over 3 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$14M
worth $22M, owed $8M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$13M
average case $+15M, less $2M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE68%
68% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL2 yr
1.4 WAR a year on average
$+13M risk-adjusted × 68% confidence
= $+9M trade value
#186
STL · 1B · 28y
+$9M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$4M+$11M▲+$24M
2027Arb-2$5.3M1.5+$7
2028Arb-3$5.9M1.3+$4
TOT$11M2.8+$11
0.01.02.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB670 PA · .279/.343/.473 · 26 HR · 4 SB · 2.5 WAR
270/329/453  ·  17 HR  ·  3 SB  ·  1.4 WAR/yr
over 2 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$11M
worth $21M, owed $11M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$10M
average case $+10M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE93%
93% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL2 yr
1.4 WAR a year on average
$+10M risk-adjusted × 93% confidence
= $+9M trade value
#187
OAK · 2B · 27y
+$9M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$5M+$14M▲+$32M
2027Arb-1$2.2M1.5+$10
2028Arb-2$2.9M1.0+$5
2029Arb-3$3.9M0.8+$0
2030Arb-4$4.3M0.5+$0
TOT$13M3.8+$15
0.01.02.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA70 PA · .333/.486/.667 · 5 HR · 3 SB
MLB435 PA · .256/.322/.475 · 22 HR · 16 SB · 2.4 WAR
227/299/404  ·  15 HR  ·  13 SB  ·  0.9 WAR/yr
over 4 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$14M
worth $19M, owed $5M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$13M
average case $+14M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE69%
69% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL2 yr
1.2 WAR a year on average
$+13M risk-adjusted × 69% confidence
= $+9M trade value
#188
LAA · 1B · 25y
+$9M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$4M+$10M▲+$26M
2027Arb-1$2.5M1.2+$7
2028Arb-2$4.4M1.0+$3
2029Arb-3$6.1M0.9+$0
TOT$13M3.1+$11
0.00.81.7273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB446 PA · .276/.351/.385 · 7 HR · 1 SB · 0.7 WAR
263/349/386  ·  10 HR  ·  4 SB  ·  1.0 WAR/yr
over 3 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$10M
worth $17M, owed $6M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$10M
average case $+11M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE89%
89% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL2 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+10M risk-adjusted × 89% confidence
= $+9M trade value
#189
CWS · SS · 21y
+$9M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$18M▲+$71M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.4—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.2—
2029MiLB$0.0M0.6—
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M0.9+$2
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M1.2+$7
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M1.3+$7
2033Arb-1$4.2M1.3+$4
2034Arb-2$6.4M1.1+$2
2035Arb-3$8.4M0.9+$0
TOT$22M6.7+$22
0.00.91.8273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A257 PA · .256/.388/.338 · 0 HR · 13 SB
228/309/358  ·  9 HR  ·  9 SB  ·  1.1 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$18M
worth $24M, owed $6M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$29M
average case $+29M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE31%
31% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL4 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+29M risk-adjusted × 31% confidence
= $+9M trade value
#190
CLE · C · 28y
+$9M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$2M+$8M▲+$26M
2027Arb-1$2.3M1.3+$8
2028Arb-2$2.8M0.8+$0
2029Arb-3$3.3M0.6+$0
TOT$8.4M2.7+$9
0.00.91.8273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB345 PA · .206/.272/.335 · 10 HR · 3 SB · 0.4 WAR
216/281/332  ·  6 HR  ·  1 SB  ·  0.9 WAR/yr
over 3 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$8M
worth $10M, owed $2M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$10M
average case $+10M, less $0M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE88%
88% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL1 yr
1.3 WAR a year on average
$+10M risk-adjusted × 88% confidence
= $+9M trade value
#191
MIL · C · 23y
+$8M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$16M▲+$61M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.8—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.5—
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M0.9+$2
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.1+$6
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M1.2+$7
2032Arb-1$3.4M1.1+$4
2033Arb-2$4.7M0.9+$0
2034Arb-3$5.5M0.7+$0
TOT$16M5.9+$19
0.00.81.7273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AA/A+324 PA · .243/.361/.419 · 12 HR · 4 SB
235/319/396  ·  12 HR  ·  5 SB  ·  1.0 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$16M
worth $19M, owed $3M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$25M
average case $+25M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE34%
34% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+25M risk-adjusted × 34% confidence
= $+8M trade value
#192
BOS · C · 20y
+$8M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$35M▲+$171M
2027MiLB$0.0M1.1—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.7—
2029MiLB$0.0M1.4—
2030MiLB$0.0M1.8—
2031MiLB$0.0M2.0—
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2.0+$10
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2.0+$10
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M1.9+$8
2035Arb-1$5.2M1.8+$6
2036Arb-2$7.7M1.6+$3
2037Arb-3$9.9M1.3+$1
TOT$26M10.6+$39
0.01.22.5273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A/ROK340 PA · .367/.499/.581 · 13 HR · 6 SB
252/337/400  ·  12 HR  ·  3 SB  ·  1.8 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$35M
worth $43M, owed $8M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$65M
average case $+65M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE13%
13% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
1.5 WAR a year on average
$+65M risk-adjusted × 13% confidence
= $+8M trade value
#193
DET · C · 27y
+$8M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$0M+$15M▲+$36M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.1+$8
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.0+$7
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M0.9+$2
2030Arb-1$2.4M0.8+$1
2031Arb-2$3.1M0.6+$0
2032Arb-3$3.1M0.3+$0
TOT$11M4.7+$18
0.00.81.6273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA354 PA · .262/.347/.479 · 17 HR · 1 SB
MLB138 PA · .341/.380/.636 · 8 HR · 0 SB · 2.7 WAR
260/319/452  ·  11 HR  ·  0 SB  ·  0.8 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$15M
worth $16M, owed $2M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$17M
average case $+17M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE49%
49% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL2 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+17M risk-adjusted × 49% confidence
= $+8M trade value
#194
MIL · RF · 27y
+$8M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$4M+$10M▲+$24M
2027Arb-1$2.6M1.3+$8
2028Arb-2$5.2M1.0+$3
2029Arb-3$6.3M0.7+$0
TOT$14M3.0+$11
0.00.91.8273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA44 PA · .278/.395/.556 · 2 HR · 1 SB
MLB384 PA · .230/.295/.319 · 4 HR · 7 SB · -1.0 WAR
259/324/354  ·  6 HR  ·  23 SB  ·  1.0 WAR/yr
over 3 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$10M
worth $18M, owed $7M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$9M
average case $+10M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE89%
89% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL2 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+9M risk-adjusted × 89% confidence
= $+8M trade value
#195
PHI · 3B · 22y
+$8M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$11M▲+$45M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.4—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.4+$1
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M0.8+$2
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.0+$6
2031Arb-1$4.2M1.1+$4
2032Arb-2$6.7M1.1+$2
2033Arb-3$8.4M0.9+$0
TOT$22M5.3+$14
0.00.81.6273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AA/INTL607 PA · .230/.334/.346 · 12 HR · 29 SB
247/323/380  ·  15 HR  ·  18 SB  ·  0.9 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$11M
worth $18M, owed $7M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$18M
average case $+18M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE45%
45% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
1.0 WAR a year on average
$+18M risk-adjusted × 45% confidence
= $+8M trade value
#196
PHI · C · 21y
+$8M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$22M▲+$76M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.6—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.3—
2029MiLB$0.0M0.7—
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.0+$6
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M1.2+$7
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M1.2+$6
2033Arb-1$3.8M1.1+$4
2034Arb-2$5.7M1.0+$2
2035Arb-3$7.4M0.8+$0
TOT$20M6.3+$24
0.00.81.7273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A+/A328 PA · .310/.363/.493 · 11 HR · 6 SB
251/308/396  ·  12 HR  ·  4 SB  ·  1.1 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$22M
worth $28M, owed $6M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$32M
average case $+32M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE25%
25% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.0 WAR a year on average
$+32M risk-adjusted × 25% confidence
= $+8M trade value
#197
MIL · LF · 22y
+$8M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$11M▲+$44M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.9—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.5+$1
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M0.8+$2
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.0+$6
2031Arb-1$3.6M1.1+$4
2032Arb-2$5.7M1.0+$2
2033Arb-3$6.9M0.8+$0
TOT$19M5.2+$15
0.00.81.6273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AA/A+494 PA · .300/.417/.509 · 18 HR · 18 SB
251/341/416  ·  16 HR  ·  10 SB  ·  0.9 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$11M
worth $17M, owed $6M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$18M
average case $+18M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE45%
45% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
1.0 WAR a year on average
$+18M risk-adjusted × 45% confidence
= $+8M trade value
#198
TEX · 3B · 29y
+$8M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$4M+$10M▲+$24M
2027Arb-2$5.7M1.7+$8
2028Arb-3$6.6M1.1+$2
TOT$12M2.8+$10
0.01.12.2273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA17 PA · .200/.294/.467 · 1 HR · 0 SB
MLB444 PA · .299/.365/.462 · 12 HR · 1 SB · 2.6 WAR
272/333/432  ·  10 HR  ·  2 SB  ·  1.4 WAR/yr
over 2 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$10M
worth $22M, owed $12M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$9M
average case $+10M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE89%
89% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL2 yr
1.4 WAR a year on average
$+9M risk-adjusted × 89% confidence
= $+8M trade value
#199
MIL · OF · 23y
+$8M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$18M▲+$67M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.8—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.7—
2029MiLB$0.0M1.1—
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.2+$7
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M1.2+$7
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M1.1+$5
2033Arb-1$2.8M0.8+$1
2034Arb-2$3.7M0.6+$0
2035Arb-3$4.0M0.4+$0
TOT$13M5.3+$20
0.00.81.7273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AA/A+524 PA · .295/.418/.536 · 24 HR · 37 SB
232/323/405  ·  17 HR  ·  13 SB  ·  0.9 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$18M
worth $20M, owed $2M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$27M
average case $+27M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE28%
28% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+27M risk-adjusted × 28% confidence
= $+8M trade value
#200
NYY · SS · 20y
+$8M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$17M▲+$66M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.3—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.2—
2029MiLB$0.0M0.5—
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M0.8+$2
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M1.0+$5
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M1.2+$6
2033Arb-1$4.4M1.2+$4
2034Arb-2$7.1M1.2+$2
2035Arb-3$9.4M1.1+$1
TOT$24M6.5+$20
0.00.81.7273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A/INTL209 PA · .268/.416/.476 · 6 HR · 17 SB
237/327/390  ·  13 HR  ·  13 SB  ·  1.1 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$17M
worth $27M, owed $10M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$27M
average case $+27M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE28%
28% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.0 WAR a year on average
$+27M risk-adjusted × 28% confidence
= $+8M trade value
#201
CLE · SS · 23y
+$7M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$15M▲+$54M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.6—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.5—
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M0.9+$2
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.1+$6
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M1.1+$6
2032Arb-1$3.6M1.0+$3
2033Arb-2$5.0M0.8+$0
2034Arb-3$6.0M0.6+$0
TOT$17M5.5+$18
0.00.81.6273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AA/A+527 PA · .257/.422/.447 · 17 HR · 12 SB
220/327/375  ·  15 HR  ·  8 SB  ·  0.9 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$15M
worth $18M, owed $3M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$22M
average case $+22M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE34%
34% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
1.0 WAR a year on average
$+22M risk-adjusted × 34% confidence
= $+7M trade value
#202
Tyler Soderstrom NTC OPT
OAK · LF · 25y
+$7M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$48M+$12M▲+$100M
2027Ext$12M1.1-$3
2028Ext$12M2.4+$7
2029Ext$12M2.3+$6
2030Ext$12M2.0+$4
2031Ext$12M1.7+$2
2032Ext$12M1.4+$0
2033CLU OPT·DEC$12M1.0—
TOT$74M10.9+$15
0.01.42.9273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB453 PA · .245/.338/.472 · 19 HR · 2 SB · 1.4 WAR
254/333/460  ·  20 HR  ·  3 SB  ·  1.8 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$12M
worth $69M, owed $58M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$8M
average case $+20M, less $12M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE86%
86% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
1.7 WAR a year on average
$+8M risk-adjusted × 86% confidence
= $+7M trade value
#203
MIL · 2B · 20y
+$7M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$32M▲+$150M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.8—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.8—
2029MiLB$0.0M1.3—
2030MiLB$0.0M1.7—
2031MiLB$0.0M1.8—
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M1.9+$10
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M1.9+$9
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M1.8+$8
2035Arb-1$5.0M1.6+$5
2036Arb-2$7.4M1.3+$2
2037Arb-3$8.9M1.1+$1
TOT$24M9.6+$35
0.01.22.4273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A+/A508 PA · .237/.389/.343 · 5 HR · 41 SB
242/349/373  ·  12 HR  ·  15 SB  ·  1.6 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$32M
worth $39M, owed $8M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$58M
average case $+58M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE13%
13% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
1.4 WAR a year on average
$+58M risk-adjusted × 13% confidence
= $+7M trade value
#204
KC · SS · 20y
+$7M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$10M▲+$51M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.2—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.2—
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M0.6+$1
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M0.9+$2
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M1.1+$6
2032Arb-1$5.2M1.2+$4
2033Arb-2$9.1M1.2+$1
2034Arb-3$13M1.2+$0
TOT$30M6.2+$14
0.01.12.1273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A487 PA · .286/.354/.389 · 5 HR · 25 SB
243/305/387  ·  16 HR  ·  12 SB  ·  1.0 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$10M
worth $23M, owed $13M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$19M
average case $+19M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE38%
38% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL4 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+19M risk-adjusted × 38% confidence
= $+7M trade value
#205
ATL · OF · 20y
+$7M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$18M▲+$71M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.5—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.4—
2029MiLB$0.0M0.7—
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M0.9+$2
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M1.1+$6
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M1.3+$7
2033Arb-1$4.4M1.3+$4
2034Arb-2$7.1M1.2+$2
2035Arb-3$9.4M1.0+$0
TOT$24M6.8+$22
0.00.91.8273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A+/A/ROK435 PA · .265/.416/.493 · 17 HR · 11 SB
233/332/406  ·  20 HR  ·  11 SB  ·  1.1 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$18M
worth $28M, owed $10M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$28M
average case $+28M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE25%
25% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+28M risk-adjusted × 25% confidence
= $+7M trade value
#206
COL · LF · 30y
+$7M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$9M+$10M▲+$29M
2027Arb-2$7.1M2.1+$10
2028Arb-3$7.2M0.9+$0
TOT$14M3.0+$10
0.01.32.6273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB596 PA · .291/.334/.475 · 15 HR · 32 SB · 1.7 WAR
267/318/404  ·  10 HR  ·  32 SB  ·  1.5 WAR/yr
over 2 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$10M
worth $17M, owed $7M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$8M
average case $+10M, less $2M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE92%
92% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL1 yr
2.1 WAR a year on average
$+8M risk-adjusted × 92% confidence
= $+7M trade value
#207
COL · OF · 20y
+$7M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$12M▲+$54M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.5—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.3—
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M0.6+$1
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M0.9+$2
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M1.0+$5
2032Arb-1$4.2M1.2+$4
2033Arb-2$7.4M1.3+$3
2034Arb-3$10M1.2+$1
TOT$25M6.2+$16
0.00.91.8273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A/ROK417 PA · .341/.420/.551 · 11 HR · 15 SB
264/332/421  ·  14 HR  ·  10 SB  ·  1.0 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$12M
worth $23M, owed $11M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$21M
average case $+21M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE34%
34% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL4 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+21M risk-adjusted × 34% confidence
= $+7M trade value
#208
BAL · SS · 23y
+$7M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$9M▲+$40M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.7—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.5+$1
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M0.9+$2
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.0+$6
2031Arb-1$4.0M1.0+$3
2032Arb-2$6.0M0.9+$0
2033Arb-3$7.4M0.8+$0
TOT$20M5.1+$13
0.00.51.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AA/A+533 PA · .288/.358/.506 · 25 HR · 20 SB
236/293/410  ·  19 HR  ·  9 SB  ·  0.8 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$9M
worth $12M, owed $3M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$15M
average case $+15M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE45%
45% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL2 yr
0.9 WAR a year on average
$+15M risk-adjusted × 45% confidence
= $+7M trade value
#209
BAL · 3B · 25y
+$7M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$4M+$7M▲+$26M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M0.5+$1
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.0+$7
2029Arb-1$2.3M0.9+$1
2030Arb-2$3.3M0.7+$0
2031Arb-3$3.9M0.5+$0
TOT$11M3.6+$9
0.00.51.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB454 PA · .228/.297/.461 · 24 HR · 4 SB · 1.7 WAR
221/296/416  ·  14 HR  ·  3 SB  ·  0.7 WAR/yr
over 5 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$7M
worth $7M, owed $1M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$8M
average case $+9M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE81%
81% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL1 yr
1.0 WAR a year on average
$+8M risk-adjusted × 81% confidence
= $+7M trade value
#210
BAL · C · 21y
+$7M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$12M▲+$52M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.6—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.3—
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M0.6+$1
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M0.9+$2
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M1.1+$6
2032Arb-1$4.4M1.2+$4
2033Arb-2$7.4M1.2+$2
2034Arb-3$9.9M1.1+$0
TOT$24M6.1+$16
0.00.81.7273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A/ROK/INTL298 PA · .257/.387/.340 · 2 HR · 6 SB
246/335/368  ·  8 HR  ·  2 SB  ·  1.0 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$12M
worth $22M, owed $11M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$20M
average case $+20M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE34%
34% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL4 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+20M risk-adjusted × 34% confidence
= $+7M trade value
#211
ARI · SS · 21y
+$7M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$16M▲+$59M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.3—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.3—
2029MiLB$0.0M0.7—
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M0.9+$2
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M1.1+$6
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M1.2+$6
2033Arb-1$4.2M1.1+$3
2034Arb-2$6.0M1.0+$2
2035Arb-3$7.4M0.8+$0
TOT$20M6.1+$19
0.00.81.7273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A+/A490 PA · .307/.407/.440 · 6 HR · 30 SB
239/320/373  ·  12 HR  ·  12 SB  ·  1.0 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$16M
worth $22M, owed $6M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$24M
average case $+24M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE28%
28% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL4 yr
1.0 WAR a year on average
$+24M risk-adjusted × 28% confidence
= $+7M trade value
#212
NYY · SS · 26y
+$7M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$4M+$7M▲+$21M
2027Arb-1$2.4M1.2+$7
2028Arb-2$4.5M0.8+$0
2029Arb-3$5.3M0.6+$0
TOT$12M2.6+$7
0.00.81.7273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA/AA203 PA · .260/.342/.508 · 11 HR · 12 SB
MLB246 PA · .245/.321/.336 · 2 HR · 12 SB · 0.8 WAR
227/292/375  ·  12 HR  ·  19 SB  ·  0.9 WAR/yr
over 3 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$7M
worth $10M, owed $2M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$7M
average case $+8M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE92%
92% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL1 yr
1.2 WAR a year on average
$+7M risk-adjusted × 92% confidence
= $+7M trade value
#213
PIT · SS · 21y
+$7M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$23M▲+$87M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.6—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.4—
2029MiLB$0.0M0.8—
2030MiLB$0.0M1.1—
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M1.3+$7
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M1.3+$7
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M1.3+$6
2034Arb-1$4.2M1.2+$4
2035Arb-2$5.7M1.0+$2
2036Arb-3$6.9M0.8+$0
TOT$20M6.9+$25
0.00.91.8273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A+/A/INTL417 PA · .280/.413/.533 · 21 HR · 34 SB
217/301/390  ·  18 HR  ·  15 SB  ·  1.2 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$23M
worth $28M, owed $5M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$35M
average case $+35M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE19%
19% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+35M risk-adjusted × 19% confidence
= $+7M trade value
#214
WSH · 2B · 26y
+$7M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$1M+$10M▲+$16M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.3+$10
2028Arb-1$2.3M0.6+$0
2029Arb-2$3.2M0.5+$0
2030Arb-3$3.3M0.2+$0
TOT$9.6M2.6+$10
0.00.91.8273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB493 PA · .209/.291/.244 · 1 HR · 49 SB · -0.7 WAR
221/303/317  ·  7 HR  ·  38 SB  ·  0.7 WAR/yr
over 4 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$10M
worth $10M, owed $1M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$8M
average case $+8M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE79%
79% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL1 yr
1.3 WAR a year on average
$+8M risk-adjusted × 79% confidence
= $+7M trade value
#215
MIN · C · 22y
+$7M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$19M▲+$69M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.4—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.3—
2029MiLB$0.0M0.7—
2030MiLB$0.0M0.9—
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M1.2+$7
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M1.2+$6
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M1.1+$5
2034Arb-1$3.2M1.0+$3
2035Arb-2$4.7M0.8+$0
2036Arb-3$5.0M0.5+$0
TOT$16M5.8+$21
0.00.81.7273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A+/A124 PA · .250/.435/.424 · 3 HR · 13 SB
231/320/376  ·  9 HR  ·  6 SB  ·  1.0 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$19M
worth $22M, owed $3M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$28M
average case $+28M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE23%
23% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL4 yr
1.0 WAR a year on average
$+28M risk-adjusted × 23% confidence
= $+7M trade value
#216
MIA · 3B · 24y
+$6M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$10M+$8M▲+$35M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M0.0+$0
2028Arb-1$6.0M1.6+$6
2029Arb-2$10M1.6+$3
2030Arb-3$15M1.6+$0
TOT$32M4.8+$9
0.01.22.4273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB490 PA · .295/.333/.458 · 11 HR · 11 SB · 3.0 WAR
292/336/449  ·  9 HR  ·  11 SB  ·  1.6 WAR/yr
over 4 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$8M
worth $32M, owed $24M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$8M
average case $+10M, less $2M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE81%
81% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
1.6 WAR a year on average
$+8M risk-adjusted × 81% confidence
= $+6M trade value
#217
HOU · C · 24y
+$6M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$17M▲+$62M
2027MiLB$0.0M1.0—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.8—
2029MiLB$0.0M1.2—
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.2+$7
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M1.2+$7
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M1.0+$5
2033Arb-1$2.8M0.8+$1
2034Arb-2$3.4M0.6+$0
2035Arb-3$0.6M0.0+$0
TOT$9.4M4.8+$19
0.00.81.7273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA/AA/A+540 PA · .252/.391/.531 · 32 HR · 32 SB
204/302/386  ·  18 HR  ·  6 SB  ·  1.0 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$17M
worth $19M, owed $2M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$26M
average case $+26M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE25%
25% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+26M risk-adjusted × 25% confidence
= $+6M trade value
#218
MIN · 1B · 31y
+$6M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$6M+$12M▲+$26M
2027Arb-1$4.2M2.0+$12
2028Arb-2$4.2M0.6+$0
2029Arb-3$4.2M-0.1+$0
TOT$13M2.5+$12
0.01.22.5273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB583 PA · .239/.298/.460 · 27 HR · 10 SB · 0.9 WAR
235/295/445  ·  22 HR  ·  5 SB  ·  1.3 WAR/yr
over 3 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$12M
worth $16M, owed $4M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$9M
average case $+11M, less $2M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE68%
68% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL1 yr
2.0 WAR a year on average
$+9M risk-adjusted × 68% confidence
= $+6M trade value
#219
COL · SS · 20y
+$6M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$25M▲+$110M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.8—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.4—
2029MiLB$0.0M0.9—
2030MiLB$0.0M1.2—
2031MiLB$0.0M1.4—
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M1.5+$8
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M1.6+$8
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M1.5+$7
2035Arb-1$4.8M1.4+$4
2036Arb-2$7.1M1.2+$2
2037Arb-3$8.9M0.9+$0
TOT$24M8.1+$28
0.01.12.1273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A/ROK347 PA · .300/.409/.479 · 8 HR · 29 SB
249/330/396  ·  12 HR  ·  9 SB  ·  1.3 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$25M
worth $31M, owed $5M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$43M
average case $+43M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE14%
14% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.3 WAR a year on average
$+43M risk-adjusted × 14% confidence
= $+6M trade value
#220
TEX · CF · 24y
+$6M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$8M+$7M▲+$29M
2027Arb-1$1.6M1.1+$7
2028Arb-2$2.7M0.8+$1
2029Arb-3$5.0M0.8+$0
2030Arb-4$7.0M0.8+$0
TOT$16M3.5+$8
0.00.81.6273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB455 PA · .194/.288/.315 · 9 HR · 17 SB · -0.3 WAR
217/307/347  ·  9 HR  ·  21 SB  ·  0.9 WAR/yr
over 4 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$7M
worth $9M, owed $2M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$7M
average case $+9M, less $2M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE82%
82% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL1 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+7M risk-adjusted × 82% confidence
= $+6M trade value
#221
LAD · SS · 21y
+$6M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$6M▲+$36M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.5—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.2+$0
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M0.6+$1
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M0.9+$2
2031Arb-1$3.8M1.1+$4
2032Arb-2$6.7M1.2+$3
2033Arb-3$9.9M1.1+$0
TOT$23M5.1+$11
0.00.81.7273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A/ROK312 PA · .294/.430/.527 · 13 HR · 20 SB
230/319/381  ·  13 HR  ·  16 SB  ·  0.9 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$6M
worth $17M, owed $11M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$13M
average case $+13M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE45%
45% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+13M risk-adjusted × 45% confidence
= $+6M trade value
#222
STL · 3B · 22y
+$6M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$15M▲+$58M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.7—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.5—
2029MiLB$0.0M0.8—
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.0+$6
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M1.0+$5
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M1.0+$5
2033Arb-1$3.2M0.8+$0
2034Arb-2$4.4M0.7+$0
2035Arb-3$5.0M0.5+$0
TOT$15M5.0+$16
0.00.51.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AA/A286 PA · .264/.393/.449 · 10 HR · 12 SB
237/331/399  ·  14 HR  ·  11 SB  ·  0.8 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$15M
worth $17M, owed $2M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$23M
average case $+23M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE25%
25% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
0.9 WAR a year on average
$+23M risk-adjusted × 25% confidence
= $+6M trade value
#223
TB · RF · 25y
+$6M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$2M+$9M▲+$20M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.2+$9
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.7+$2
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M0.7+$2
2030Arb-1$2.0M0.6+$0
2031Arb-2$2.6M0.4+$0
2032Arb-3$2.6M0.2+$0
TOT$9.6M3.8+$13
0.00.81.7273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA101 PA · .307/.396/.557 · 4 HR · 1 SB
MLB262 PA · .260/.327/.498 · 14 HR · 9 SB · 1.1 WAR
243/315/427  ·  12 HR  ·  6 SB  ·  0.6 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$9M
worth $10M, owed $1M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$8M
average case $+9M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE69%
69% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL1 yr
1.2 WAR a year on average
$+8M risk-adjusted × 69% confidence
= $+6M trade value
#224
MIN · SS · 26y
+$6M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$0M+$8M▲+$13M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.1+$8
2028Arb-1$1.6M0.4+$0
2029Arb-2$2.1M0.2+$0
2030Arb-3$2.1M0.0+$0
TOT$6.6M1.7+$8
0.00.81.6273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB631 PA · .253/.300/.428 · 24 HR · 8 SB · 2.0 WAR
235/286/383  ·  18 HR  ·  5 SB  ·  0.6 WAR/yr
over 4 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$8M
worth $9M, owed $1M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$7M
average case $+7M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE85%
85% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL1 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+7M risk-adjusted × 85% confidence
= $+6M trade value
#225
SF · SS · 18y
+$6M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$21M▲+$92M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.2—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.1—
2029MiLB$0.0M0.4—
2030MiLB$0.0M0.6—
2031MiLB$0.0M0.9—
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M1.2+$6
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M1.3+$6
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M1.3+$6
2035Arb-1$5.8M1.4+$4
2036Arb-2$9.4M1.3+$2
2037Arb-3$12M1.1+$0
TOT$30M7.6+$23
0.01.02.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A/ROK326 PA · .277/.350/.467 · 8 HR · 6 SB
243/308/411  ·  20 HR  ·  11 SB  ·  1.3 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$21M
worth $31M, owed $10M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$36M
average case $+36M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE16%
16% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+36M risk-adjusted × 16% confidence
= $+6M trade value
#226
MIN · C · 23y
+$6M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$18M▲+$74M
2027MiLB$0.0M1.0—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.8—
2029MiLB$0.0M1.2—
2030MiLB$0.0M1.5—
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M1.5+$8
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M1.3+$7
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M1.1+$5
2034Arb-1$2.8M0.9+$1
2035Arb-2$3.4M0.6+$0
2036Arb-3$3.0M0.3+$0
TOT$12M5.7+$21
0.01.02.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AA/A+476 PA · .306/.417/.452 · 9 HR · 14 SB
243/334/362  ·  8 HR  ·  4 SB  ·  1.0 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$18M
worth $20M, owed $2M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$30M
average case $+30M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE19%
19% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
1.2 WAR a year on average
$+30M risk-adjusted × 19% confidence
= $+6M trade value
#227
MIN · SS · 18y
+$6M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$30M▲+$156M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.4—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.3—
2029MiLB$0.0M0.7—
2030MiLB$0.0M1.1—
2031MiLB$0.0M1.5—
2032MiLB$0.0M1.7—
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M1.8+$9
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M1.9+$8
2035Pre-Arb$1.0M1.9+$8
2036Arb-1$6.2M1.8+$5
2037Arb-2$9.7M1.6+$3
2038Arb-3$12M1.4+$1
TOT$31M10.4+$33
0.01.22.4273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS ROK210 PA · .276/.483/.428 · 1 HR · 22 SB
251/345/382  ·  10 HR  ·  16 SB  ·  1.7 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$30M
worth $39M, owed $9M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$59M
average case $+59M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE9%
9% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
1.5 WAR a year on average
$+59M risk-adjusted × 9% confidence
= $+6M trade value
#228
LAA · CF · 20y
+$6M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$8M▲+$44M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.2—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.3—
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M0.7+$2
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M0.9+$2
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M1.0+$5
2032Arb-1$5.0M1.1+$3
2033Arb-2$8.4M1.1+$1
2034Arb-3$12M1.1+$0
TOT$28M5.9+$14
0.01.02.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A+/A551 PA · .289/.391/.456 · 12 HR · 53 SB
245/327/388  ·  14 HR  ·  18 SB  ·  1.0 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$8M
worth $21M, owed $12M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$16M
average case $+16M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE34%
34% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL4 yr
1.0 WAR a year on average
$+16M risk-adjusted × 34% confidence
= $+6M trade value
#229
BAL · RF · 27y
+$5M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$3M+$7M▲+$22M
2027Arb-1$2.4M1.2+$7
2028Arb-2$3.8M0.7+$0
2029Arb-3$4.2M0.6+$0
TOT$10M2.5+$7
0.00.81.7273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB392 PA · .226/.317/.370 · 13 HR · 10 SB · 0.3 WAR
228/312/409  ·  13 HR  ·  8 SB  ·  0.8 WAR/yr
over 3 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$7M
worth $10M, owed $2M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$8M
average case $+8M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE69%
69% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL1 yr
1.2 WAR a year on average
$+8M risk-adjusted × 69% confidence
= $+5M trade value
#230
KC · 1B · 29y
+$5M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$7M+$8M▲+$20M
2027Ext$5.5M1.1+$3
2028Arb-3$5.4M1.4+$6
TOT$11M2.5+$9
0.00.91.9273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA32 PA · .259/.344/.296 · 0 HR · 0 SB
MLB481 PA · .249/.333/.428 · 17 HR · 5 SB · 1.2 WAR
258/325/452  ·  16 HR  ·  2 SB  ·  1.2 WAR/yr
over 2 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$8M
worth $19M, owed $10M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$6M
average case $+8M, less $2M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE94%
94% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL2 yr
1.2 WAR a year on average
$+6M risk-adjusted × 94% confidence
= $+5M trade value
#231
TB · LF · 26y
+$5M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$0M+$8M▲+$12M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.1+$8
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.6+$2
2029Arb-1$1.9M0.4+$0
2030Arb-2$2.2M0.1+$0
2031Arb-3$2.2M-0.3+$0
TOT$7.9M1.9+$10
0.00.81.6273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB612 PA · .306/.333/.356 · 0 HR · 46 SB · 0.4 WAR
280/316/328  ·  1 HR  ·  45 SB  ·  0.6 WAR/yr
over 5 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$8M
worth $9M, owed $1M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$6M
average case $+7M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE83%
83% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL1 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+6M risk-adjusted × 83% confidence
= $+5M trade value
#232
WSH · SS · 20y
+$5M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$14M▲+$53M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.1—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.2—
2029MiLB$0.0M0.5—
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M0.8+$2
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M1.0+$5
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M1.1+$5
2033Arb-1$5.0M1.1+$3
2034Arb-2$8.1M1.0+$1
2035Arb-3$10M0.9+$0
TOT$26M5.9+$17
0.00.91.8273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A+/A523 PA · .233/.321/.396 · 15 HR · 52 SB
230/294/398  ·  20 HR  ·  14 SB  ·  1.0 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$14M
worth $20M, owed $7M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$21M
average case $+21M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE25%
25% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL4 yr
1.0 WAR a year on average
$+21M risk-adjusted × 25% confidence
= $+5M trade value
#233
NYY · LF · 27y
+$5M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$6M+$7M▲+$22M
2027Arb-1$2.4M1.2+$7
2028Arb-2$4.5M0.9+$0
2029Arb-3$5.3M0.6+$0
TOT$12M2.7+$7
0.00.81.7273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA31 PA · .346/.452/.577 · 1 HR · 0 SB
MLB442 PA · .245/.305/.411 · 13 HR · 4 SB · 0.2 WAR
249/314/418  ·  20 HR  ·  5 SB  ·  0.9 WAR/yr
over 3 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$7M
worth $10M, owed $2M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$6M
average case $+8M, less $2M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE89%
89% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL1 yr
1.2 WAR a year on average
$+6M risk-adjusted × 89% confidence
= $+5M trade value
#234
DET · SS · 20y
+$5M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$22M▲+$91M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.4—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.3—
2029MiLB$0.0M0.7—
2030MiLB$0.0M1.0—
2031MiLB$0.0M1.3—
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M1.4+$7
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M1.4+$7
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M1.4+$6
2035Arb-1$4.4M1.2+$3
2036Arb-2$6.0M1.0+$2
2037Arb-3$7.4M0.8+$0
TOT$21M7.2+$25
0.00.91.9273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A378 PA · .252/.369/.354 · 4 HR · 18 SB
238/315/367  ·  11 HR  ·  9 SB  ·  1.2 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$22M
worth $27M, owed $5M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$36M
average case $+36M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE14%
14% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+36M risk-adjusted × 14% confidence
= $+5M trade value
#235
MIL · SS · 18y
+$5M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$28M▲+$141M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.4—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.2—
2029MiLB$0.0M0.6—
2030MiLB$0.0M1.0—
2031MiLB$0.0M1.3—
2032MiLB$0.0M1.5—
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M1.7+$8
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M1.7+$8
2035Pre-Arb$1.0M1.8+$7
2036Arb-1$5.8M1.7+$5
2037Arb-2$9.1M1.5+$2
2038Arb-3$11M1.3+$1
TOT$29M9.7+$31
0.01.12.3273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS ROK205 PA · .289/.446/.533 · 10 HR · 15 SB
249/334/388  ·  15 HR  ·  14 SB  ·  1.6 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$28M
worth $36M, owed $9M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$54M
average case $+54M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE9%
9% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
1.4 WAR a year on average
$+54M risk-adjusted × 9% confidence
= $+5M trade value
#236
COL · 1B · 27y
+$5M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$9M▲+$13M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.2+$9
2028Arb-1$1.5M0.3+$0
2029Arb-2$1.5M0.1+$0
2030Arb-3$1.5M-0.1+$0
TOT$5.3M1.5+$9
0.00.81.7273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA121 PA · .291/.397/.544 · 6 HR · 4 SB
MLB383 PA · .243/.342/.377 · 7 HR · 10 SB · 0.1 WAR
233/313/384  ·  11 HR  ·  14 SB  ·  0.5 WAR/yr
over 4 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$9M
worth $10M, owed $1M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$8M
average case $+8M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE65%
65% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL1 yr
1.2 WAR a year on average
$+8M risk-adjusted × 65% confidence
= $+5M trade value
#237
CWS · SS · 25y
+$5M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$3M+$7M▲+$21M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.0+$7
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.7+$2
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M0.8+$2
2030Arb-1$3.9M0.8+$0
2031Arb-2$5.7M0.7+$0
2032Arb-3$6.3M0.5+$0
TOT$18M4.5+$11
0.00.51.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA239 PA · .320/.422/.675 · 19 HR · 8 SB
MLB227 PA · .220/.274/.364 · 7 HR · 2 SB · 0.5 WAR
233/301/401  ·  19 HR  ·  8 SB  ·  0.8 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$7M
worth $8M, owed $1M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$8M
average case $+8M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE65%
65% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL1 yr
1.0 WAR a year on average
$+8M risk-adjusted × 65% confidence
= $+5M trade value
#238
PHI · CF · 23y
+$5M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$2M▲+$20M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M0.9+$3
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.7+$2
2029Arb-1$3.4M0.9+$0
2030Arb-2$6.2M1.0+$2
2031Arb-3$8.9M1.0+$0
TOT$20M4.5+$7
0.00.81.6273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB465 PA · .264/.309/.353 · 3 HR · 17 SB · 0.3 WAR
265/319/371  ·  7 HR  ·  32 SB  ·  0.9 WAR/yr
over 5 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$2M
worth $12M, owed $10M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$7M
average case $+7M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE76%
76% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL2 yr
0.9 WAR a year on average
$+7M risk-adjusted × 76% confidence
= $+5M trade value
#239
NYM · RF · 27y
+$5M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$4M+$9M▲+$14M
2027Arb-1$3.0M1.5+$9
2028Arb-2$3.0M0.4+$0
2029Arb-3$3.0M0.2+$0
TOT$9.0M2.1+$9
0.01.02.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB473 PA · .238/.311/.374 · 11 HR · 5 SB · 0.3 WAR
242/315/405  ·  13 HR  ·  4 SB  ·  0.7 WAR/yr
over 3 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$9M
worth $12M, owed $3M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$6M
average case $+7M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE87%
87% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL1 yr
1.5 WAR a year on average
$+6M risk-adjusted × 87% confidence
= $+5M trade value
#240
MIL · SS · 29y
+$5M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$2M+$7M▲+$18M
2027Arb-1$2.2M1.1+$7
2028Arb-2$2.8M0.7+$0
2029Arb-3$2.8M0.4+$0
TOT$7.8M2.2+$7
0.00.81.6273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB415 PA · .270/.328/.402 · 9 HR · 9 SB · 1.8 WAR
246/308/356  ·  5 HR  ·  10 SB  ·  0.7 WAR/yr
over 3 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$7M
worth $9M, owed $2M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$7M
average case $+7M, less $0M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE69%
69% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL1 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+7M risk-adjusted × 69% confidence
= $+5M trade value
#241
CIN · CF · 29y
+$5M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$6M+$7M▲+$18M
2027Arb-2$4.7M1.4+$6
2028Arb-3$7.7M1.0+$0
TOT$12M2.4+$7
0.00.91.9273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA104 PA · .341/.462/.659 · 6 HR · 1 SB
MLB545 PA · .217/.324/.416 · 24 HR · 6 SB · 1.5 WAR
223/317/410  ·  23 HR  ·  5 SB  ·  1.2 WAR/yr
over 2 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$7M
worth $18M, owed $12M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$5M
average case $+6M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE92%
92% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL2 yr
1.2 WAR a year on average
$+5M risk-adjusted × 92% confidence
= $+5M trade value
#242
ARI · LF · 28y
+$5M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$1M+$9M▲+$12M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.2+$9
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.1+$0
2029Arb-1$0.2M-0.1+$0
2030Arb-2$0.4M-0.4+$0
2031Arb-3$0.6M-0.7+$0
TOT$2.8M0.1+$9
0.00.81.7273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA88 PA · .320/.409/.733 · 7 HR · 2 SB
MLB351 PA · .240/.297/.393 · 11 HR · 8 SB · -0.4 WAR
229/295/394  ·  12 HR  ·  5 SB  ·  0.7 WAR/yr
over 5 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$9M
worth $10M, owed $1M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$7M
average case $+7M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE63%
63% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL1 yr
1.2 WAR a year on average
$+7M risk-adjusted × 63% confidence
= $+5M trade value
#243
CIN · 2B · 27y
+$5M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$3M+$8M▲+$18M
2027Arb-1$2.6M1.3+$8
2028Arb-2$4.2M0.7+$0
2029Arb-3$4.7M0.5+$0
TOT$12M2.5+$8
0.00.91.8273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA20 PA · .294/.400/.412 · 0 HR · 0 SB
MLB496 PA · .185/.274/.334 · 15 HR · 20 SB · -0.3 WAR
214/299/356  ·  13 HR  ·  20 SB  ·  0.8 WAR/yr
over 3 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$8M
worth $10M, owed $3M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$7M
average case $+7M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE69%
69% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL1 yr
1.3 WAR a year on average
$+7M risk-adjusted × 69% confidence
= $+5M trade value
#244
ARI · C · 27y
+$5M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$1M+$7M▲+$19M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.0+$7
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.8+$2
2029Arb-1$1.5M0.6+$1
2030Arb-2$2.0M0.5+$0
2031Arb-3$2.0M0.2+$0
TOT$7.1M3.1+$10
0.00.51.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA142 PA · .280/.383/.585 · 8 HR · 0 SB
MLB197 PA · .193/.246/.309 · 5 HR · 1 SB · 0.0 WAR
220/288/383  ·  9 HR  ·  1 SB  ·  0.6 WAR/yr
over 5 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$7M
worth $8M, owed $1M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$8M
average case $+8M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE59%
59% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL1 yr
1.0 WAR a year on average
$+8M risk-adjusted × 59% confidence
= $+5M trade value
#245
TOR · SS · 22y
+$4M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$10M▲+$47M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.4—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.3—
2029MiLB$0.0M0.7—
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M0.9+$2
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M1.0+$5
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M1.0+$5
2033Arb-1$3.4M0.9+$0
2034Arb-2$5.0M0.8+$0
2035Arb-3$6.0M0.6+$0
TOT$17M5.2+$13
0.00.51.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A+/A368 PA · .300/.419/.380 · 1 HR · 34 SB
245/336/346  ·  7 HR  ·  11 SB  ·  0.9 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$10M
worth $11M, owed $1M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$18M
average case $+18M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE25%
25% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL2 yr
0.9 WAR a year on average
$+18M risk-adjusted × 25% confidence
= $+4M trade value
#246
CLE · C · 21y
+$4M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$21M▲+$90M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.8—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.5—
2029MiLB$0.0M1.0—
2030MiLB$0.0M1.3—
2031MiLB$0.0M1.5—
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M1.5+$8
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M1.5+$7
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M1.3+$6
2035Arb-1$3.4M1.1+$3
2036Arb-2$5.0M0.9+$0
2037Arb-3$4.0M0.5+$0
TOT$15M6.8+$24
0.01.02.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A/ROK305 PA · .297/.451/.603 · 18 HR · 18 SB
232/316/385  ·  13 HR  ·  4 SB  ·  1.1 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$21M
worth $24M, owed $3M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$35M
average case $+35M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE13%
13% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL4 yr
1.2 WAR a year on average
$+35M risk-adjusted × 13% confidence
= $+4M trade value
#247
CLE · SS · 21y
+$4M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$14M▲+$57M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.4—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.3—
2029MiLB$0.0M0.6—
2030MiLB$0.0M0.9—
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M1.0+$5
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M1.1+$5
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M1.0+$5
2034Arb-1$3.2M0.8+$0
2035Arb-2$4.7M0.7+$0
2036Arb-3$5.5M0.5+$0
TOT$16M5.1+$16
0.00.81.6273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AA/A+/ROK/INTL398 PA · .293/.384/.540 · 21 HR · 19 SB
232/307/380  ·  14 HR  ·  11 SB  ·  0.8 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$14M
worth $16M, owed $2M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$23M
average case $+23M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE19%
19% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
1.0 WAR a year on average
$+23M risk-adjusted × 19% confidence
= $+4M trade value
#248
NYM · SS · 19y
+$4M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$13M▲+$52M
2027MiLB$0.0M-0.2—
2028MiLB$0.0M-0.1—
2029MiLB$0.0M0.1—
2030MiLB$0.0M0.4—
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M0.8+$2
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M1.0+$5
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M1.1+$5
2034Arb-1$4.8M1.1+$3
2035Arb-2$7.7M1.0+$1
2036Arb-3$9.9M0.9+$0
TOT$25M5.9+$16
0.00.81.7273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A+/A516 PA · .255/.369/.370 · 8 HR · 30 SB
220/308/375  ·  19 HR  ·  21 SB  ·  1.0 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$13M
worth $19M, owed $6M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$21M
average case $+21M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE21%
21% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL4 yr
0.9 WAR a year on average
$+21M risk-adjusted × 21% confidence
= $+4M trade value
#249
· SS · 18y
+$4M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$24M▲+$117M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.3—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.2—
2029MiLB$0.0M0.6—
2030MiLB$0.0M0.9—
2031MiLB$0.0M1.2—
2032MiLB$0.0M1.4—
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M1.5+$7
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M1.6+$7
2035Pre-Arb$1.0M1.6+$7
2036Arb-1$5.4M1.5+$4
2037Arb-2$8.4M1.4+$2
2038Arb-3$10M1.1+$1
TOT$27M8.7+$28
0.01.12.1273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS ROK228 PA · .346/.456/.589 · 10 HR · 19 SB
250/326/387  ·  14 HR  ·  15 SB  ·  1.4 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$24M
worth $33M, owed $8M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$45M
average case $+45M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE9%
9% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
1.3 WAR a year on average
$+45M risk-adjusted × 9% confidence
= $+4M trade value
#250
MIN · 3B · 28y
+$4M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$4M+$6M▲+$16M
2027Arb-2$4.0M1.2+$6
2028Arb-3$5.6M0.8+$0
TOT$9.6M2.0+$6
0.00.81.7273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA67 PA · .333/.403/.900 · 10 HR · 0 SB
MLB509 PA · .227/.287/.380 · 15 HR · 16 SB · 0.5 WAR
235/293/415  ·  19 HR  ·  11 SB  ·  1.0 WAR/yr
over 2 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$6M
worth $10M, owed $4M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$5M
average case $+6M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE87%
87% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL1 yr
1.2 WAR a year on average
$+5M risk-adjusted × 87% confidence
= $+4M trade value
#251
ATL · RF · 29y
+$4M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$15M+$3M▲+$38M
2027Ext$24M3.1+$5
2028CLU OPT·DEC$17M1.5—
TOT$24M3.1+$5
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA24 PA · .263/.375/.263 · 0 HR · 1 SB
MLB469 PA · .255/.345/.451 · 20 HR · 21 SB · 1.8 WAR
276/373/478  ·  21 HR  ·  19 SB  ·  3.1 WAR/yr
over 1 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$3M
worth $28M, owed $26M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$4M
average case $+8M, less $4M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE100%
100% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL1 yr
3.1 WAR a year on average
$+4M risk-adjusted × 100% confidence
= $+4M trade value
#252
BAL · 2B · 22y
+$4M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$3M▲+$26M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.3—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.4+$1
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M0.6+$1
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M0.9+$2
2031Arb-1$3.6M1.0+$4
2032Arb-2$5.7M0.9+$0
2033Arb-3$7.4M0.8+$0
TOT$19M4.6+$8
0.00.51.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA/AA/INTL582 PA · .291/.336/.489 · 26 HR · 10 SB
251/302/403  ·  18 HR  ·  14 SB  ·  0.8 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$3M
worth $6M, owed $2M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$9M
average case $+9M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE45%
45% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL1 yr
0.9 WAR a year on average
$+9M risk-adjusted × 45% confidence
= $+4M trade value
#253
COL · SS · 20y
+$4M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$4M▲+$31M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.2—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.2—
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M0.4+$1
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M0.7+$2
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M0.9+$2
2032Arb-1$4.4M1.1+$3
2033Arb-2$7.7M1.1+$1
2034Arb-3$11M1.1+$0
TOT$26M5.3+$9
0.00.91.9273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A152 PA · .262/.395/.557 · 9 HR · 1 SB
232/311/418  ·  18 HR  ·  8 SB  ·  0.9 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$4M
worth $15M, owed $11M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$11M
average case $+11M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE38%
38% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
1.0 WAR a year on average
$+11M risk-adjusted × 38% confidence
= $+4M trade value
#254
· C · 18y
+$4M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$24M▲+$110M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.3—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.2—
2029MiLB$0.0M0.6—
2030MiLB$0.0M1.1—
2031MiLB$0.0M1.4—
2032MiLB$0.0M1.5—
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M1.5+$7
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M1.5+$7
2035Pre-Arb$1.0M1.5+$6
2036Arb-1$4.8M1.5+$4
2037Arb-2$7.4M1.3+$2
2038Arb-3$9.9M1.1+$1
TOT$25M8.4+$27
0.01.02.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS ROK192 PA · .303/.500/.485 · 3 HR · 15 SB
241/334/376  ·  9 HR  ·  14 SB  ·  1.4 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$24M
worth $32M, owed $7M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$43M
average case $+43M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE9%
9% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
1.2 WAR a year on average
$+43M risk-adjusted × 9% confidence
= $+4M trade value
#255
LAA · SS · 18y
+$4M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$24M▲+$112M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.3—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.2—
2029MiLB$0.0M0.5—
2030MiLB$0.0M0.9—
2031MiLB$0.0M1.1—
2032MiLB$0.0M1.4—
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M1.5+$7
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M1.5+$7
2035Pre-Arb$1.0M1.6+$7
2036Arb-1$5.2M1.5+$4
2037Arb-2$8.1M1.3+$2
2038Arb-3$10M1.1+$1
TOT$27M8.5+$27
0.01.12.1273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS ROK211 PA · .314/.454/.384 · 0 HR · 68 SB
252/331/364  ·  10 HR  ·  21 SB  ·  1.4 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$24M
worth $32M, owed $8M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$43M
average case $+43M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE9%
9% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
1.2 WAR a year on average
$+43M risk-adjusted × 9% confidence
= $+4M trade value
#256
Nico Hoerner NTC DEF
CHC · 2B · 30y
+$4M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$11M+$3M▲+$29M
2027Ext$22M2.7+$1
TOT$22M2.7+$1
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB689 PA · .263/.316/.350 · 8 HR · 23 SB · 1.4 WAR
283/338/378  ·  7 HR  ·  21 SB  ·  2.7 WAR/yr
over 1 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$3M
worth $23M, owed $20M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$4M
average case $+7M, less $3M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE100%
100% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL1 yr
2.7 WAR a year on average
$+4M risk-adjusted × 100% confidence
= $+4M trade value
#257
NYY · SS · 22y
+$4M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$3M▲+$26M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.4—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.4+$1
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M0.7+$2
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M0.9+$2
2031Arb-1$3.6M1.0+$4
2032Arb-2$6.0M0.9+$0
2033Arb-3$7.9M0.8+$0
TOT$20M4.7+$8
0.00.51.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A+/A491 PA · .224/.346/.342 · 9 HR · 38 SB
234/315/355  ·  11 HR  ·  21 SB  ·  0.8 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$3M
worth $6M, owed $2M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$9M
average case $+9M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE44%
44% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL1 yr
0.9 WAR a year on average
$+9M risk-adjusted × 44% confidence
= $+4M trade value
#258
Jarren Duran OPT
BOS · LF · 30y
+$4M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$6M+$6M▲+$16M
2027Arb-2$4.4M1.3+$6
2028Arb-3$5.1M0.7+$0
2029CLU OPT·DEC$5.1M0.1—
TOT$9.5M2.0+$6
0.00.91.8273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB608 PA · .207/.266/.361 · 20 HR · 21 SB · -1.3 WAR
239/302/409  ·  15 HR  ·  24 SB  ·  1.0 WAR/yr
over 2 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$6M
worth $10M, owed $4M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$4M
average case $+6M, less $2M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE98%
98% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL1 yr
1.3 WAR a year on average
$+4M risk-adjusted × 98% confidence
= $+4M trade value
#259
SEA · 3B · 30y
+$4M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$4M▲+$9M
2027Arb-3$6.0M1.2+$4
TOT$6.0M1.2+$4
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA/A+40 PA · .132/.150/.211 · 1 HR · 0 SB
MLB159 PA · .277/.371/.409 · 3 HR · 1 SB · 0.6 WAR
281/351/427  ·  5 HR  ·  2 SB  ·  1.2 WAR/yr
over 1 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$4M
worth $10M, owed $6M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$4M
average case $+4M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE93%
93% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL1 yr
1.2 WAR a year on average
$+4M risk-adjusted × 93% confidence
= $+4M trade value
#260
BAL · SS · 20y
+$4M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$17M▲+$68M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.5—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.2—
2029MiLB$0.0M0.5—
2030MiLB$0.0M0.8—
2031MiLB$0.0M1.0—
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M1.2+$6
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M1.2+$6
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M1.1+$5
2035Arb-1$4.0M1.0+$3
2036Arb-2$5.7M0.9+$0
2037Arb-3$6.9M0.7+$0
TOT$19M6.1+$19
0.00.81.7273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A+/A/ROK368 PA · .324/.425/.441 · 4 HR · 26 SB
244/318/373  ·  11 HR  ·  11 SB  ·  1.0 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$17M
worth $20M, owed $3M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$27M
average case $+27M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE14%
14% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL4 yr
1.0 WAR a year on average
$+27M risk-adjusted × 14% confidence
= $+4M trade value
#261
DET · C · 22y
+$4M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$16M▲+$70M
2027MiLB$0.0M1.1—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.5—
2029MiLB$0.0M1.0—
2030MiLB$0.0M1.3—
2031MiLB$0.0M1.4—
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M1.4+$7
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M1.3+$6
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M1.1+$5
2035Arb-1$3.2M0.9+$1
2036Arb-2$3.7M0.6+$0
2037Arb-3$3.5M0.4+$0
TOT$13M5.7+$19
0.00.91.9273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A+/A390 PA · .311/.410/.439 · 7 HR · 17 SB
252/324/379  ·  9 HR  ·  4 SB  ·  1.0 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$16M
worth $18M, owed $1M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$28M
average case $+28M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE14%
14% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+28M risk-adjusted × 14% confidence
= $+4M trade value
#262
MIL · 1B · 23y
+$4M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$1M▲+$27M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.2+$9
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.5+$1
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M0.7+$2
2030Arb-1$3.0M0.9+$1
2031Arb-2$4.7M0.8+$0
2032Arb-3$6.0M0.7+$0
TOT$16M4.8+$12
0.00.51.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA/ROK295 PA · .267/.423/.547 · 16 HR · 8 SB
235/362/419  ·  13 HR  ·  8 SB  ·  0.6 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$1M
worth $1M, owed $0M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$8M
average case $+8M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE45%
45% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL1 yr
0.1 WAR a year on average
$+8M risk-adjusted × 45% confidence
= $+4M trade value
#263
BAL · C · 17y
+$4M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$23M▲+$102M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.3—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.2—
2029MiLB$0.0M0.5—
2030MiLB$0.0M0.9—
2031MiLB$0.0M1.2—
2032MiLB$0.0M1.3—
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M1.4+$7
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M1.4+$6
2035Pre-Arb$1.0M1.4+$6
2036Arb-1$4.6M1.4+$4
2037Arb-2$7.4M1.3+$2
2038Arb-3$9.9M1.2+$1
TOT$25M8.1+$26
0.00.91.9273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS ROK188 PA · .257/.415/.438 · 4 HR · 19 SB
242/323/380  ·  10 HR  ·  15 SB  ·  1.3 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$23M
worth $30M, owed $8M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$40M
average case $+40M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE9%
9% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
1.2 WAR a year on average
$+40M risk-adjusted × 9% confidence
= $+4M trade value
#264
· SS · 18y
+$4M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$22M▲+$99M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.3—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.2—
2029MiLB$0.0M0.5—
2030MiLB$0.0M0.8—
2031MiLB$0.0M1.1—
2032MiLB$0.0M1.3—
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M1.4+$7
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M1.4+$6
2035Pre-Arb$1.0M1.5+$6
2036Arb-1$4.8M1.4+$4
2037Arb-2$7.4M1.2+$2
2038Arb-3$9.4M1.0+$1
TOT$24M7.9+$25
0.01.02.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS ROK201 PA · .290/.373/.511 · 5 HR · 10 SB
253/318/391  ·  11 HR  ·  13 SB  ·  1.3 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$22M
worth $30M, owed $7M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$39M
average case $+39M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE9%
9% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
1.2 WAR a year on average
$+39M risk-adjusted × 9% confidence
= $+4M trade value
#265
· SS · 18y
+$4M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$23M▲+$101M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.3—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.2—
2029MiLB$0.0M0.5—
2030MiLB$0.0M0.8—
2031MiLB$0.0M1.1—
2032MiLB$0.0M1.3—
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M1.4+$7
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M1.5+$7
2035Pre-Arb$1.0M1.5+$6
2036Arb-1$5.0M1.4+$4
2037Arb-2$7.7M1.2+$2
2038Arb-3$9.4M1.0+$1
TOT$25M8.0+$25
0.01.02.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS ROK238 PA · .311/.401/.378 · 1 HR · 33 SB
258/327/369  ·  10 HR  ·  18 SB  ·  1.3 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$23M
worth $30M, owed $8M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$39M
average case $+39M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE9%
9% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
1.2 WAR a year on average
$+39M risk-adjusted × 9% confidence
= $+4M trade value
#266
LAA · SS · 20y
+$4M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$8M▲+$37M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.1—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.1—
2029MiLB$0.0M0.3—
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M0.6+$1
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M0.8+$2
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M1.0+$5
2033Arb-1$4.6M1.0+$3
2034Arb-2$7.4M1.0+$1
2035Arb-3$9.9M0.9+$0
TOT$25M5.3+$12
0.00.81.7273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A/ROK357 PA · .264/.378/.448 · 11 HR · 2 SB
230/308/399  ·  18 HR  ·  10 SB  ·  0.9 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$8M
worth $14M, owed $6M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$14M
average case $+14M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE25%
25% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
0.9 WAR a year on average
$+14M risk-adjusted × 25% confidence
= $+4M trade value
#267
TB · C · 18y
+$4M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$23M▲+$97M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.3—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.2—
2029MiLB$0.0M0.6—
2030MiLB$0.0M1.0—
2031MiLB$0.0M1.3—
2032MiLB$0.0M1.3—
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M1.4+$7
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M1.4+$6
2035Pre-Arb$1.0M1.4+$6
2036Arb-1$4.2M1.4+$4
2037Arb-2$6.7M1.2+$2
2038Arb-3$8.4M1.0+$1
TOT$22M7.8+$25
0.00.91.9273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS ROK195 PA · .203/.375/.266 · 1 HR · 8 SB
251/333/370  ·  8 HR  ·  9 SB  ·  1.3 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$23M
worth $29M, owed $7M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$38M
average case $+38M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE9%
9% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+38M risk-adjusted × 9% confidence
= $+4M trade value
#268
PIT · 1B · 29y
+$4M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$2M+$6M▲+$12M
2027Arb-1$1.5M1.0+$6
2028Arb-2$1.5M0.5+$1
2029Arb-3$1.5M0.3+$0
2030Arb-4$1.5M-0.1+$0
TOT$6.0M1.7+$7
0.00.51.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB451 PA · .244/.344/.364 · 10 HR · 1 SB · 0.6 WAR
242/337/379  ·  8 HR  ·  0 SB  ·  0.6 WAR/yr
over 4 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$6M
worth $8M, owed $2M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$5M
average case $+6M, less $0M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE68%
68% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL1 yr
1.0 WAR a year on average
$+5M risk-adjusted × 68% confidence
= $+4M trade value
#269
CIN · SS · 23y
+$4M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$7M+$3M▲+$30M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M0.4+$1
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.5+$1
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M0.8+$2
2030Arb-1$4.8M1.1+$4
2031Arb-2$8.3M1.1+$1
2032Arb-3$12M1.0+$0
TOT$27M4.9+$9
0.00.91.9273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA/AA/INTL404 PA · .298/.369/.420 · 9 HR · 33 SB
MLB50 PA · .217/.280/.326 · 1 HR · 2 SB · 0.4 WAR
238/299/345  ·  9 HR  ·  36 SB  ·  0.8 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$3M
worth $18M, owed $15M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$6M
average case $+8M, less $2M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE57%
57% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
1.0 WAR a year on average
$+6M risk-adjusted × 57% confidence
= $+4M trade value
#270
PIT · SS · 18y
+$4M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$22M▲+$95M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.3—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.2—
2029MiLB$0.0M0.4—
2030MiLB$0.0M0.8—
2031MiLB$0.0M1.1—
2032MiLB$0.0M1.2—
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M1.4+$7
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M1.4+$6
2035Pre-Arb$1.0M1.4+$6
2036Arb-1$4.8M1.4+$4
2037Arb-2$7.4M1.2+$2
2038Arb-3$9.4M0.9+$0
TOT$24M7.7+$24
0.00.91.9273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS ROK206 PA · .254/.368/.422 · 3 HR · 20 SB
249/321/380  ·  10 HR  ·  16 SB  ·  1.3 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$22M
worth $27M, owed $5M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$37M
average case $+37M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE9%
9% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.2 WAR a year on average
$+37M risk-adjusted × 9% confidence
= $+4M trade value
#271
PIT · OF · 22y
+$3M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$11M▲+$45M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.9—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.4—
2029MiLB$0.0M0.7—
2030MiLB$0.0M1.0—
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M1.1+$6
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M1.1+$5
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M0.9+$2
2034Arb-1$2.8M0.8+$1
2035Arb-2$3.7M0.6+$0
2036Arb-3$4.5M0.4+$0
TOT$14M4.9+$14
0.00.81.6273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A+334 PA · .258/.341/.576 · 25 HR · 1 SB
253/314/466  ·  20 HR  ·  3 SB  ·  0.8 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$11M
worth $12M, owed $1M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$18M
average case $+18M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE19%
19% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL2 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+18M risk-adjusted × 19% confidence
= $+3M trade value
#272
ATL · CF · 21y
+$3M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$1M▲+$24M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.1—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.3+$0
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M0.6+$1
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M0.8+$2
2031Arb-1$4.4M0.9+$0
2032Arb-2$7.7M1.0+$1
2033Arb-3$11M0.9+$0
TOT$26M4.5+$5
0.00.91.9273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AA/A+583 PA · .249/.350/.456 · 26 HR · 56 SB
223/299/396  ·  22 HR  ·  22 SB  ·  0.8 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$1M
worth $5M, owed $4M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$8M
average case $+8M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE45%
45% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL1 yr
0.9 WAR a year on average
$+8M risk-adjusted × 45% confidence
= $+3M trade value
#273
CLE · SS · 20y
+$3M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$7M▲+$35M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.1—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.2—
2029MiLB$0.0M0.4—
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M0.6+$1
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M0.8+$2
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M1.0+$5
2033Arb-1$4.4M1.0+$3
2034Arb-2$7.4M0.9+$0
2035Arb-3$9.4M0.8+$0
TOT$24M5.1+$11
0.00.81.7273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A+/A424 PA · .265/.336/.415 · 6 HR · 59 SB
242/303/386  ·  13 HR  ·  15 SB  ·  0.8 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$7M
worth $10M, owed $3M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$13M
average case $+13M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE25%
25% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL2 yr
0.9 WAR a year on average
$+13M risk-adjusted × 25% confidence
= $+3M trade value
#274
STL · SS · 19y
+$3M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$20M▲+$81M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.4—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.2—
2029MiLB$0.0M0.5—
2030MiLB$0.0M0.9—
2031MiLB$0.0M1.1—
2032MiLB$0.0M1.3—
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M1.3+$6
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M1.4+$6
2035Pre-Arb$1.0M1.3+$5
2036Arb-1$4.6M1.2+$3
2037Arb-2$6.7M1.0+$1
2038Arb-3$8.4M0.7+$0
TOT$23M6.9+$22
0.00.91.9273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A/ROK294 PA · .282/.446/.520 · 11 HR · 18 SB
232/322/391  ·  17 HR  ·  8 SB  ·  1.2 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$20M
worth $24M, owed $5M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$32M
average case $+32M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE11%
11% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+32M risk-adjusted × 11% confidence
= $+3M trade value
#275
BAL · CF · 20y
+$3M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$3M▲+$26M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.0—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.2—
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M0.6+$1
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M0.8+$2
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M0.9+$2
2032Arb-1$4.6M1.0+$3
2033Arb-2$7.7M1.0+$1
2034Arb-3$11M1.0+$0
TOT$26M5.3+$9
0.00.91.9273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A+/A512 PA · .295/.348/.537 · 21 HR · 20 SB
239/293/424  ·  22 HR  ·  13 SB  ·  0.9 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$3M
worth $14M, owed $11M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$9M
average case $+9M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE38%
38% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
0.9 WAR a year on average
$+9M risk-adjusted × 38% confidence
= $+3M trade value
#276
PIT · C · 21y
+$3M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$14M▲+$57M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.3—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.2—
2029MiLB$0.0M0.6—
2030MiLB$0.0M0.9—
2031MiLB$0.0M1.1—
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M1.2+$6
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M1.1+$5
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M1.0+$4
2035Arb-1$2.8M0.8+$1
2036Arb-2$4.0M0.6+$0
2037Arb-3$4.0M0.4+$0
TOT$14M5.1+$16
0.00.81.7273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A335 PA · .296/.385/.352 · 2 HR · 0 SB
231/322/326  ·  8 HR  ·  1 SB  ·  0.8 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$14M
worth $15M, owed $1M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$23M
average case $+23M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE14%
14% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
1.0 WAR a year on average
$+23M risk-adjusted × 14% confidence
= $+3M trade value
#277
CHC · C · 18y
+$3M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$20M▲+$86M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.1—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.1—
2029MiLB$0.0M0.4—
2030MiLB$0.0M0.8—
2031MiLB$0.0M1.2—
2032MiLB$0.0M1.3—
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M1.3+$6
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M1.3+$6
2035Pre-Arb$1.0M1.3+$5
2036Arb-1$5.2M1.3+$3
2037Arb-2$8.1M1.2+$2
2038Arb-3$10M1.0+$0
TOT$27M7.4+$22
0.00.91.8273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS ROK24 PA · .300/.417/.650 · 1 HR · 5 SB
247/320/404  ·  8 HR  ·  19 SB  ·  1.2 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$20M
worth $28M, owed $8M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$34M
average case $+34M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE9%
9% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+34M risk-adjusted × 9% confidence
= $+3M trade value
#278
LAD · 3B · 36y
+$3M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$9M+$11M▲+$11M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.5+$11
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.1+$0
2029Arb-1$2.5M0.0+$0
2030Arb-2$4.2M0.0+$0
2031Arb-3$6.0M0.0+$0
TOT$14M1.6+$11
0.01.02.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB561 PA · .252/.348/.490 · 29 HR · 3 SB · 4.0 WAR
235/341/468  ·  13 HR  ·  2 SB  ·  0.8 WAR/yr
over 2 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$11M
worth $12M, owed $1M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$3M
average case $+5M, less $2M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE100%
100% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL1 yr
1.5 WAR a year on average
$+3M risk-adjusted × 100% confidence
= $+3M trade value
#279
MIN · C · 21y
+$3M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$9M▲+$43M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.3—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.2—
2029MiLB$0.0M0.4—
2030MiLB$0.0M0.7—
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M0.9+$2
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M1.0+$5
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M1.0+$5
2034Arb-1$3.0M0.9+$1
2035Arb-2$4.4M0.7+$0
2036Arb-3$5.0M0.5+$0
TOT$15M5.0+$12
0.00.51.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A+/A/ROK/INTL192 PA · .232/.391/.397 · 6 HR · 0 SB
216/313/374  ·  13 HR  ·  5 SB  ·  0.8 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$9M
worth $10M, owed $1M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$16M
average case $+16M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE19%
19% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL2 yr
0.9 WAR a year on average
$+16M risk-adjusted × 19% confidence
= $+3M trade value
#280
CLE · SS · 20y
+$3M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$13M▲+$56M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.3—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.2—
2029MiLB$0.0M0.4—
2030MiLB$0.0M0.7—
2031MiLB$0.0M0.9—
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M1.0+$5
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M1.1+$5
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M1.0+$4
2035Arb-1$3.8M0.9+$0
2036Arb-2$5.4M0.7+$0
2037Arb-3$6.0M0.6+$0
TOT$18M5.3+$15
0.00.81.6273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A/ROK304 PA · .202/.336/.267 · 3 HR · 22 SB
237/321/369  ·  12 HR  ·  9 SB  ·  0.9 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$13M
worth $14M, owed $1M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$22M
average case $+22M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE14%
14% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
0.9 WAR a year on average
$+22M risk-adjusted × 14% confidence
= $+3M trade value
#281
PHI · SS · 18y
+$3M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$20M▲+$82M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.3—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.1—
2029MiLB$0.0M0.4—
2030MiLB$0.0M0.7—
2031MiLB$0.0M1.0—
2032MiLB$0.0M1.2—
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M1.3+$6
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M1.3+$6
2035Pre-Arb$1.0M1.3+$5
2036Arb-1$4.4M1.2+$3
2037Arb-2$6.7M1.1+$2
2038Arb-3$8.4M0.9+$0
TOT$22M7.1+$22
0.00.91.8273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS ROK247 PA · .295/.451/.437 · 4 HR · 9 SB
242/327/363  ·  11 HR  ·  12 SB  ·  1.2 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$20M
worth $24M, owed $5M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$32M
average case $+32M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE9%
9% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+32M risk-adjusted × 9% confidence
= $+3M trade value
#282
MIL · C · 20y
+$3M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$14M▲+$60M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.4—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.2—
2029MiLB$0.0M0.5—
2030MiLB$0.0M0.8—
2031MiLB$0.0M1.0—
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M1.1+$5
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M1.1+$5
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M1.1+$5
2035Arb-1$3.2M0.9+$1
2036Arb-2$4.7M0.7+$0
2037Arb-3$5.5M0.6+$0
TOT$16M5.5+$16
0.00.81.6273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A/ROK274 PA · .245/.365/.511 · 16 HR · 5 SB
217/299/386  ·  16 HR  ·  8 SB  ·  0.9 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$14M
worth $15M, owed $1M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$24M
average case $+24M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE13%
13% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
1.0 WAR a year on average
$+24M risk-adjusted × 13% confidence
= $+3M trade value
#283
TEX · SS · 18y
+$3M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$20M▲+$81M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.3—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.1—
2029MiLB$0.0M0.4—
2030MiLB$0.0M0.7—
2031MiLB$0.0M1.0—
2032MiLB$0.0M1.2—
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M1.3+$6
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M1.3+$6
2035Pre-Arb$1.0M1.3+$5
2036Arb-1$4.6M1.2+$3
2037Arb-2$6.7M1.1+$2
2038Arb-3$8.4M0.8+$0
TOT$23M7.0+$22
0.00.91.8273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS ROK222 PA · .251/.387/.440 · 8 HR · 3 SB
245/324/373  ·  12 HR  ·  11 SB  ·  1.2 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$20M
worth $24M, owed $5M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$32M
average case $+32M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE9%
9% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+32M risk-adjusted × 9% confidence
= $+3M trade value
#284
MIA · LF · 30y
+$3M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$3M+$8M▲+$11M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.1+$8
2028Arb-1$1.4M0.5+$1
2029Arb-2$3.9M0.0+$0
2030Arb-3$6.0M0.0+$0
TOT$12M1.6+$9
0.00.81.6273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB323 PA · .264/.353/.493 · 19 HR · 4 SB · 2.3 WAR
257/339/476  ·  11 HR  ·  2 SB  ·  0.8 WAR/yr
over 2 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$8M
worth $9M, owed $1M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$5M
average case $+5M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE62%
62% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL1 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+5M risk-adjusted × 62% confidence
= $+3M trade value
#285
NYM · 1B · 27y
+$3M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$3M+$6M▲+$11M
2027Arb-1$2.3M1.1+$7
2028Arb-2$2.3M0.4+$0
2029Arb-3$2.3M0.2+$0
TOT$6.9M1.7+$7
0.00.81.6273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA19 PA · .500/.526/1.333 · 5 HR · 0 SB
MLB295 PA · .212/.258/.394 · 13 HR · 0 SB · -0.5 WAR
246/299/456  ·  16 HR  ·  1 SB  ·  0.6 WAR/yr
over 3 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$6M
worth $9M, owed $2M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$4M
average case $+5M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE69%
69% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL1 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+4M risk-adjusted × 69% confidence
= $+3M trade value
#286
SD · C · 28y
+$3M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$4M+$6M▲+$15M
2027Arb-2$3.3M1.1+$6
2028Arb-3$4.1M0.7+$0
TOT$7.4M1.8+$6
0.00.81.6273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB248 PA · .265/.363/.433 · 8 HR · 0 SB · 2.1 WAR
237/325/397  ·  8 HR  ·  1 SB  ·  0.9 WAR/yr
over 2 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$6M
worth $9M, owed $3M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$4M
average case $+6M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE65%
65% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL1 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+4M risk-adjusted × 65% confidence
= $+3M trade value
#287
PIT · C · 23y
+$3M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$11M▲+$37M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.8—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.6—
2029MiLB$0.0M1.0—
2030MiLB$0.0M1.1—
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M1.2+$7
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M1.0+$5
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M0.8+$2
2034Arb-1$2.0M0.6+$0
2035Arb-2$2.0M0.3+$0
2036Arb-3$0.6M-0.5+$0
TOT$7.4M3.4+$13
0.00.81.7273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AA/A+/INTL519 PA · .275/.329/.464 · 20 HR · 13 SB
236/286/384  ·  13 HR  ·  4 SB  ·  0.8 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$11M
worth $12M, owed $1M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$16M
average case $+16M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE19%
19% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL2 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+16M risk-adjusted × 19% confidence
= $+3M trade value
#288
LAA · 3B · 20y
+$3M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$14M▲+$58M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.4—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.3—
2029MiLB$0.0M0.5—
2030MiLB$0.0M0.8—
2031MiLB$0.0M1.0—
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M1.1+$5
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M1.1+$5
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M1.1+$5
2035Arb-1$3.4M0.9+$0
2036Arb-2$4.7M0.7+$0
2037Arb-3$5.0M0.4+$0
TOT$16M5.3+$16
0.00.81.6273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A468 PA · .255/.375/.395 · 9 HR · 5 SB
237/326/366  ·  13 HR  ·  8 SB  ·  0.9 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$14M
worth $15M, owed $1M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$23M
average case $+23M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE13%
13% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
1.0 WAR a year on average
$+23M risk-adjusted × 13% confidence
= $+3M trade value
#289
· SS · 18y
+$3M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$19M▲+$77M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.3—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.2—
2029MiLB$0.0M0.4—
2030MiLB$0.0M0.7—
2031MiLB$0.0M0.9—
2032MiLB$0.0M1.2—
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M1.2+$6
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M1.3+$6
2035Pre-Arb$1.0M1.3+$5
2036Arb-1$4.2M1.2+$3
2037Arb-2$6.4M1.0+$2
2038Arb-3$7.9M0.8+$0
TOT$21M6.8+$21
0.00.91.8273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS ROK238 PA · .321/.439/.539 · 7 HR · 10 SB
242/319/371  ·  11 HR  ·  12 SB  ·  1.1 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$19M
worth $24M, owed $5M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$31M
average case $+31M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE9%
9% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+31M risk-adjusted × 9% confidence
= $+3M trade value
#290
DET · 1B · 27y
+$3M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$3M+$5M▲+$9M
2027Arb-2$3.9M1.1+$5
2028Arb-3$4.3M0.5+$0
TOT$8.2M1.6+$5
0.00.81.6273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB612 PA · .230/.331/.435 · 26 HR · 1 SB · 1.5 WAR
217/313/410  ·  24 HR  ·  2 SB  ·  0.8 WAR/yr
over 2 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$5M
worth $9M, owed $4M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$3M
average case $+4M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE98%
98% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL1 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+3M risk-adjusted × 98% confidence
= $+3M trade value
#291
MIL · SS · 18y
+$3M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$12M▲+$50M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.1—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.1—
2029MiLB$0.0M0.2—
2030MiLB$0.0M0.4—
2031MiLB$0.0M0.7—
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M0.9+$2
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M1.0+$5
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M1.1+$5
2035Arb-1$4.6M1.1+$3
2036Arb-2$7.4M1.0+$1
2037Arb-3$9.9M0.9+$0
TOT$25M6.0+$15
0.00.81.7273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A59 PA · .190/.424/.286 · 1 HR · 2 SB
234/331/363  ·  13 HR  ·  10 SB  ·  1.0 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$12M
worth $17M, owed $5M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$20M
average case $+20M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE14%
14% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL4 yr
0.9 WAR a year on average
$+20M risk-adjusted × 14% confidence
= $+3M trade value
#292
CIN · SS · 20y
+$3M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$9M▲+$39M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.2—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.1—
2029MiLB$0.0M0.4—
2030MiLB$0.0M0.6—
2031MiLB$0.0M0.8—
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M1.0+$5
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M1.0+$5
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M0.9+$2
2035Arb-1$3.6M0.8+$0
2036Arb-2$5.0M0.6+$0
2037Arb-3$6.0M0.5+$0
TOT$17M4.8+$11
0.00.51.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A/ROK391 PA · .259/.377/.449 · 11 HR · 31 SB
220/299/361  ·  14 HR  ·  16 SB  ·  0.8 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$9M
worth $10M, owed $1M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$15M
average case $+15M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE17%
17% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL2 yr
0.9 WAR a year on average
$+15M risk-adjusted × 17% confidence
= $+3M trade value
#293
CLE · RF · 28y
+$3M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$5M+$5M▲+$12M
2027Arb-3$7.9M1.6+$5
TOT$7.9M1.6+$5
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB660 PA · .240/.298/.401 · 23 HR · 5 SB · 0.3 WAR
249/309/445  ·  25 HR  ·  7 SB  ·  1.6 WAR/yr
over 1 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$5M
worth $13M, owed $8M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$3M
average case $+4M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE94%
94% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL1 yr
1.6 WAR a year on average
$+3M risk-adjusted × 94% confidence
= $+3M trade value
#294
LAA · CF · 21y
+$3M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$3M▲+$23M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.2—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.2—
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M0.5+$1
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M0.8+$2
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M0.9+$2
2032Arb-1$4.6M1.0+$3
2033Arb-2$7.4M0.9+$0
2034Arb-3$9.4M0.8+$0
TOT$24M4.9+$8
0.00.81.7273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA585 PA · .278/.376/.363 · 3 HR · 43 SB
240/321/347  ·  10 HR  ·  35 SB  ·  0.8 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$3M
worth $5M, owed $2M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$8M
average case $+8M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE34%
34% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL1 yr
0.9 WAR a year on average
$+8M risk-adjusted × 34% confidence
= $+3M trade value
#295
TB · SS · 18y
+$3M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$17M▲+$69M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.1—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.1—
2029MiLB$0.0M0.3—
2030MiLB$0.0M0.6—
2031MiLB$0.0M0.8—
2032MiLB$0.0M1.0—
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M1.1+$5
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M1.2+$5
2035Pre-Arb$1.0M1.2+$5
2036Arb-1$5.2M1.2+$3
2037Arb-2$7.7M1.0+$1
2038Arb-3$9.9M0.8+$0
TOT$26M6.5+$19
0.00.81.7273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS ROK34 PA · .278/.618/.278 · 0 HR · 7 SB
233/351/324  ·  8 HR  ·  24 SB  ·  1.1 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$17M
worth $22M, owed $5M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$28M
average case $+28M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE9%
9% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.0 WAR a year on average
$+28M risk-adjusted × 9% confidence
= $+3M trade value
#296
MIN · SS · 18y
+$3M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$17M▲+$70M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.2—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.1—
2029MiLB$0.0M0.3—
2030MiLB$0.0M0.6—
2031MiLB$0.0M0.8—
2032MiLB$0.0M1.0—
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M1.1+$5
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M1.2+$5
2035Pre-Arb$1.0M1.2+$5
2036Arb-1$5.0M1.1+$3
2037Arb-2$7.4M1.1+$2
2038Arb-3$9.4M0.9+$0
TOT$25M6.6+$19
0.00.81.7273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS ROK197 PA · .272/.487/.412 · 4 HR · 15 SB
237/333/364  ·  12 HR  ·  12 SB  ·  1.1 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$17M
worth $22M, owed $5M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$28M
average case $+28M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE9%
9% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.0 WAR a year on average
$+28M risk-adjusted × 9% confidence
= $+3M trade value
#297
ATL · C · 18y
+$3M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$17M▲+$68M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.1—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.1—
2029MiLB$0.0M0.3—
2030MiLB$0.0M0.6—
2031MiLB$0.0M0.9—
2032MiLB$0.0M1.0—
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M1.1+$5
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M1.1+$5
2035Pre-Arb$1.0M1.2+$5
2036Arb-1$4.0M1.1+$3
2037Arb-2$6.4M1.0+$2
2038Arb-3$7.9M0.9+$0
TOT$21M6.4+$19
0.00.81.7273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS ROK111 PA · .337/.432/.461 · 0 HR · 15 SB
245/317/370  ·  8 HR  ·  17 SB  ·  1.1 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$17M
worth $22M, owed $4M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$27M
average case $+27M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE9%
9% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.0 WAR a year on average
$+27M risk-adjusted × 9% confidence
= $+3M trade value
#298
PIT · C · 18y
+$3M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$17M▲+$67M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.2—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.1—
2029MiLB$0.0M0.3—
2030MiLB$0.0M0.7—
2031MiLB$0.0M1.0—
2032MiLB$0.0M1.0—
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M1.1+$5
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M1.1+$5
2035Pre-Arb$1.0M1.2+$5
2036Arb-1$4.2M1.1+$3
2037Arb-2$6.4M1.0+$2
2038Arb-3$7.9M0.9+$0
TOT$21M6.4+$19
0.00.81.7273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS ROK169 PA · .306/.467/.435 · 3 HR · 4 SB
246/332/369  ·  9 HR  ·  5 SB  ·  1.1 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$17M
worth $22M, owed $5M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$27M
average case $+27M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE9%
9% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.0 WAR a year on average
$+27M risk-adjusted × 9% confidence
= $+3M trade value
#299
LAD · SS · 18y
+$3M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$17M▲+$70M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.2—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.1—
2029MiLB$0.0M0.3—
2030MiLB$0.0M0.6—
2031MiLB$0.0M0.8—
2032MiLB$0.0M1.0—
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M1.1+$5
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M1.2+$5
2035Pre-Arb$1.0M1.2+$5
2036Arb-1$5.2M1.2+$3
2037Arb-2$8.1M1.0+$1
2038Arb-3$10M0.9+$0
TOT$27M6.6+$19
0.00.91.8273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS ROK123 PA · .179/.426/.286 · 1 HR · 11 SB
239/334/364  ·  10 HR  ·  21 SB  ·  1.1 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$17M
worth $22M, owed $5M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$28M
average case $+28M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE9%
9% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.0 WAR a year on average
$+28M risk-adjusted × 9% confidence
= $+3M trade value
#300
CHC · SS · 18y
+$3M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$17M▲+$69M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.2—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.1—
2029MiLB$0.0M0.3—
2030MiLB$0.0M0.6—
2031MiLB$0.0M0.8—
2032MiLB$0.0M1.0—
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M1.1+$5
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M1.2+$5
2035Pre-Arb$1.0M1.2+$5
2036Arb-1$5.2M1.2+$3
2037Arb-2$7.7M1.0+$1
2038Arb-3$9.9M0.8+$0
TOT$26M6.5+$19
0.00.81.7273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS ROK183 PA · .285/.437/.474 · 3 HR · 28 SB
239/321/376  ·  12 HR  ·  22 SB  ·  1.1 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$17M
worth $22M, owed $5M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$28M
average case $+28M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE9%
9% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.0 WAR a year on average
$+28M risk-adjusted × 9% confidence
= $+3M trade value
#301
· SS · 17y
+$3M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$17M▲+$69M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.2—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.1—
2029MiLB$0.0M0.3—
2030MiLB$0.0M0.6—
2031MiLB$0.0M0.8—
2032MiLB$0.0M1.0—
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M1.1+$5
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M1.1+$5
2035Pre-Arb$1.0M1.2+$5
2036Arb-1$5.0M1.2+$3
2037Arb-2$8.1M1.1+$1
2038Arb-3$11M0.9+$0
TOT$27M6.6+$19
0.00.91.9273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS ROK207 PA · .278/.406/.391 · 3 HR · 21 SB
250/327/369  ·  11 HR  ·  17 SB  ·  1.1 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$17M
worth $22M, owed $5M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$28M
average case $+28M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE9%
9% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.0 WAR a year on average
$+28M risk-adjusted × 9% confidence
= $+3M trade value

Pitchers — Top 100

# Player · TV Score · WAR Trajectory & Stats Contract
#1
MIL · P · 25y
+$157M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$4M+$216M▲+$350M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M5.7+$68
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M5.3+$58
2029Arb-1$12M4.8+$40
2030Arb-2$19M4.6+$30
2031Arb-3$26M4.1+$17
TOT$57M24.5+$213
0.03.06.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB176.1 IP · 37.9% K · 6.6% BB · 1.79 ERA · 2.23 FIP · 7.9 WAR
147 IP  ·  37% K  ·  8% BB  ·  2.67 ERA  ·  4.9 WAR/yr
over 5 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$216M
worth $257M, owed $41M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$189M
average case $+190M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE83%
83% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
4.9 WAR a year on average
$+189M risk-adjusted × 83% confidence
= $+157M trade value
#2
NYY · P · 26y
+$125M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$147M▲+$300M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M5.0+$59
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M4.1+$42
2029Arb-1$8.5M3.6+$25
2030Arb-2$12M3.1+$14
2031Arb-3$15M2.5+$5
TOT$38M18.3+$144
0.03.06.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB195.1 IP · 31.4% K · 6.4% BB · 1.94 ERA · 2.61 FIP · 7.4 WAR
140 IP  ·  31% K  ·  8% BB  ·  3.17 ERA  ·  3.7 WAR/yr
over 5 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$147M
worth $174M, owed $27M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$149M
average case $+149M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE84%
84% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
3.7 WAR a year on average
$+149M risk-adjusted × 84% confidence
= $+125M trade value
#3
BOS · P · 24y
+$92M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$8M+$97M▲+$266M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M3.2+$29
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M3.2+$27
2029Arb-1$7.4M3.2+$20
2030Arb-2$12M3.0+$13
2031Arb-3$17M2.8+$6
TOT$38M15.4+$95
0.02.04.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA15.0 IP · 31.1% K · 6.6% BB · 3.00 ERA · 2.28 FIP
MLB150.1 IP · 28.4% K · 6.6% BB · 2.99 ERA · 3.09 FIP
126 IP  ·  30% K  ·  6% BB  ·  3.32 ERA  ·  3.1 WAR/yr
over 5 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$97M
worth $125M, owed $28M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$114M
average case $+116M, less $2M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE80%
80% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
3.1 WAR a year on average
$+114M risk-adjusted × 80% confidence
= $+92M trade value
#4
PIT · P · 21y
+$82M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$100M▲+$311M
2027MiLB$0.0M1.8—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.8+$13
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2.8+$20
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M3.2+$23
2031Arb-1$7.4M3.3+$19
2032Arb-2$12M3.4+$15
2033Arb-3$18M3.2+$10
TOT$40M17.7+$100
0.02.04.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A+/A74.0 IP · 40.4% K · 10.6% BB · 2.43 ERA · 3.06 FIP
143 IP  ·  30% K  ·  8% BB  ·  3.57 ERA  ·  2.9 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$100M
worth $123M, owed $24M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$133M
average case $+133M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE62%
62% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
2.9 WAR a year on average
$+133M risk-adjusted × 62% confidence
= $+82M trade value
#5
PIT · P · 25y
+$81M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$85M▲+$177M
2027Arb-1$9.0M4.3+$41
2028Arb-2$14M3.8+$25
2029Arb-3$19M3.5+$15
TOT$42M11.6+$81
0.02.55.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB175.0 IP · 28.1% K · 6.9% BB · 3.81 ERA · 3.38 FIP · 4.9 WAR
143 IP  ·  30% K  ·  7% BB  ·  3.17 ERA  ·  3.9 WAR/yr
over 3 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$85M
worth $121M, owed $37M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$87M
average case $+87M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE93%
93% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
3.9 WAR a year on average
$+87M risk-adjusted × 93% confidence
= $+81M trade value
#6
CLE · P · 26y
+$79M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$2M+$81M▲+$216M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M3.6+$36
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2.8+$22
2029Arb-1$5.7M2.4+$12
2030Arb-2$8.1M2.0+$7
2031Arb-3$8.9M1.5+$3
TOT$24M12.3+$79
0.02.04.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB187.0 IP · 25.8% K · 6.6% BB · 2.55 ERA · 3.12 FIP · 5.7 WAR
120 IP  ·  24% K  ·  6% BB  ·  3.56 ERA  ·  2.5 WAR/yr
over 5 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$81M
worth $99M, owed $18M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$96M
average case $+96M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE83%
83% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
2.5 WAR a year on average
$+96M risk-adjusted × 83% confidence
= $+79M trade value
#7
SEA · P · 21y
+$77M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$111M▲+$319M
2027MiLB$0.0M2.1—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.8+$13
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M3.0+$23
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M3.3+$25
2031Arb-1$8.2M3.5+$20
2032Arb-2$14M3.7+$18
2033Arb-3$20M3.6+$13
TOT$44M18.9+$111
0.02.04.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AA102.0 IP · 30.9% K · 3.9% BB · 3.71 ERA · 2.70 FIP
141 IP  ·  28% K  ·  4% BB  ·  3.33 ERA  ·  3.1 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$111M
worth $137M, owed $26M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$140M
average case $+140M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE55%
55% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
3.1 WAR a year on average
$+140M risk-adjusted × 55% confidence
= $+77M trade value
#8
CIN · P · 24y
+$76M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$68M+$106M▲+$294M
2027Ext$8.0M3.8+$32
2028Ext$13M3.7+$24
2029Ext$17M3.8+$21
2030Ext$19M3.5+$14
2031Ext$21M3.3+$10
2032Ext$24M2.9+$3
TOT$102M21.0+$104
0.02.04.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB155.0 IP · 29.4% K · 8.9% BB · 2.85 ERA · 3.29 FIP · 4.2 WAR
137 IP  ·  33% K  ·  8% BB  ·  3.23 ERA  ·  3.5 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$106M
worth $181M, owed $75M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$93M
average case $+110M, less $17M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE81%
81% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
3.5 WAR a year on average
$+93M risk-adjusted × 81% confidence
= $+76M trade value
#9
PHI · P · 30y
+$67M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$54M+$85M▲+$208M
2027Ext$6.0M5.0+$54
2028Ext$9.0M3.7+$28
2029Ext$14M2.8+$9
2030Ext$15M2.0+$2
2031Ext$27M1.3-$10
2032Ext$12M0.7-$5
2033Ext$11M0.3-$5
TOT$94M15.8+$72
0.03.06.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB207.0 IP · 27.0% K · 5.3% BB · 2.91 ERA · 2.85 FIP · 7.1 WAR
103 IP  ·  24% K  ·  7% BB  ·  3.73 ERA  ·  2.3 WAR/yr
over 7 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$85M
worth $139M, owed $54M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$67M
average case $+80M, less $14M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE100%
100% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
3.0 WAR a year on average
$+67M risk-adjusted × 100% confidence
= $+67M trade value
#10
NYM · P · 26y
+$61M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$2M+$60M▲+$168M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2.9+$25
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2.3+$16
2029Arb-1$4.5M2.0+$10
2030Arb-2$6.2M1.6+$6
2031Arb-3$6.7M1.1+$2
TOT$19M9.9+$59
0.01.53.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB181.1 IP · 26.0% K · 9.4% BB · 3.13 ERA · 3.64 FIP · 4.6 WAR
113 IP  ·  26% K  ·  10% BB  ·  3.81 ERA  ·  2.0 WAR/yr
over 5 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$60M
worth $74M, owed $14M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$73M
average case $+74M, less $0M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE83%
83% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
2.0 WAR a year on average
$+73M risk-adjusted × 83% confidence
= $+61M trade value
#11
SEA · P · 23y
+$60M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$13M+$66M▲+$298M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2.1+$16
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2.2+$16
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2.5+$17
2030Arb-1$9.5M2.7+$11
2031Arb-2$16M2.6+$5
2032Arb-3$22M2.5+$1
TOT$50M14.6+$65
0.01.53.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AA94.0 IP · 40.5% K · 3.9% BB · 1.05 ERA · 1.28 FIP
MLB37.1 IP · 21.9% K · 6.2% BB · 3.62 ERA · 3.55 FIP
105 IP  ·  27% K  ·  5% BB  ·  3.37 ERA  ·  2.5 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$66M
worth $99M, owed $32M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$109M
average case $+112M, less $3M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE55%
55% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
2.4 WAR a year on average
$+109M risk-adjusted × 55% confidence
= $+60M trade value
#12
PHI · P · 29y
+$60M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$6M+$48M▲+$145M
2027Ext$14M4.2+$34
2028CLU OPT·EXE$32M3.3+$0
2029CLU OPT·EXE$10M2.6+$10
TOT$14M4.2+$34
0.02.55.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB181.1 IP · 30.3% K · 7.1% BB · 2.83 ERA · 2.83 FIP · 6.5 WAR
129 IP  ·  29% K  ·  8% BB  ·  3.32 ERA  ·  3.4 WAR/yr
over 3 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$48M
worth $100M, owed $51M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$60M
average case $+61M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE100%
100% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
3.4 WAR a year on average
$+60M risk-adjusted × 100% confidence
= $+60M trade value
#13
MIA · P · 22y
+$58M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$66M▲+$263M
2027MiLB$0.0M1.5—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.4+$10
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2.1+$14
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2.5+$15
2031Arb-1$6.2M2.7+$13
2032Arb-2$10M2.6+$9
2033Arb-3$13M2.5+$6
TOT$32M13.8+$66
0.01.53.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA/A26.1 IP · 32.7% K · 14.0% BB · 3.76 ERA · 4.40 FIP
134 IP  ·  30% K  ·  10% BB  ·  3.79 ERA  ·  2.3 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$66M
worth $85M, owed $19M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$105M
average case $+105M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE55%
55% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
2.3 WAR a year on average
$+105M risk-adjusted × 55% confidence
= $+58M trade value
#14
SF · P · 21y
+$53M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$84M▲+$282M
2027MiLB$0.0M1.9—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.3+$9
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2.4+$16
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2.9+$20
2031Arb-1$7.4M3.1+$16
2032Arb-2$13M3.3+$14
2033Arb-3$18M3.2+$10
TOT$41M16.2+$84
0.02.04.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A+/A69.0 IP · 40.2% K · 7.7% BB · 2.22 ERA · 1.99 FIP
138 IP  ·  30% K  ·  8% BB  ·  3.46 ERA  ·  2.7 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$84M
worth $108M, owed $24M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$118M
average case $+118M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE45%
45% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
2.7 WAR a year on average
$+118M risk-adjusted × 45% confidence
= $+53M trade value
#15
BAL · P · 22y
+$53M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$68M▲+$264M
2027MiLB$0.0M1.9—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.3+$9
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2.1+$14
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2.6+$16
2031Arb-1$6.6M2.8+$13
2032Arb-2$11M2.7+$9
2033Arb-3$14M2.6+$6
TOT$34M14.1+$68
0.01.53.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AA/A+100.0 IP · 37.1% K · 9.2% BB · 1.53 ERA · 2.48 FIP
135 IP  ·  28% K  ·  8% BB  ·  3.63 ERA  ·  2.4 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$68M
worth $88M, owed $20M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$106M
average case $+106M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE50%
50% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
2.4 WAR a year on average
$+106M risk-adjusted × 50% confidence
= $+53M trade value
#16
SEA · P · 27y
+$52M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$9M+$44M▲+$140M
2027Arb-1$6.8M3.3+$25
2028Arb-2$10M2.7+$12
2029Arb-3$12M2.2+$5
TOT$29M8.2+$42
0.02.04.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB173.0 IP · 24.6% K · 5.5% BB · 4.01 ERA · 3.29 FIP · 5.0 WAR
134 IP  ·  25% K  ·  5% BB  ·  3.63 ERA  ·  2.8 WAR/yr
over 3 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$44M
worth $70M, owed $26M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$54M
average case $+57M, less $2M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE96%
96% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
2.8 WAR a year on average
$+54M risk-adjusted × 96% confidence
= $+52M trade value
#17
KC · P · 19y
+$50M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$99M▲+$308M
2027MiLB$0.0M1.7—
2028MiLB$0.0M1.1—
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2.1+$14
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2.8+$19
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M3.2+$22
2032Arb-1$7.8M3.4+$18
2033Arb-2$13M3.5+$15
2034Arb-3$20M3.6+$12
TOT$44M18.6+$99
0.02.04.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A+/A92.1 IP · 25.7% K · 4.8% BB · 2.44 ERA · 3.16 FIP
139 IP  ·  26% K  ·  4% BB  ·  3.42 ERA  ·  3.1 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$99M
worth $122M, owed $23M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$132M
average case $+132M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE38%
38% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
3.1 WAR a year on average
$+132M risk-adjusted × 38% confidence
= $+50M trade value
#18
MIA · P · 23y
+$49M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$14M+$63M▲+$271M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.2+$9
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2.2+$16
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2.7+$19
2030Arb-1$10M2.8+$12
2031Arb-2$16M2.7+$6
2032Arb-3$23M2.5+$0
TOT$52M14.1+$61
0.01.53.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA29.0 IP · 40.0% K · 13.6% BB · 1.86 ERA · 2.56 FIP
MLB5.0 IP · 9.1% K · 18.2% BB · 5.40 ERA · 7.35 FIP
124 IP  ·  28% K  ·  8% BB  ·  3.62 ERA  ·  2.4 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$63M
worth $97M, owed $34M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$99M
average case $+102M, less $4M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE50%
50% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
2.4 WAR a year on average
$+99M risk-adjusted × 50% confidence
= $+49M trade value
#19
CLE · P · 21y
+$49M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$95M▲+$313M
2027MiLB$0.0M1.9—
2028MiLB$0.0M1.4—
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2.5+$17
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2.9+$20
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M3.1+$20
2032Arb-1$7.6M3.3+$17
2033Arb-2$12M3.2+$13
2034Arb-3$16M3.0+$8
TOT$39M18.0+$95
0.02.04.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AA/A+111.1 IP · 26.3% K · 5.3% BB · 4.04 ERA · 2.66 FIP
139 IP  ·  25% K  ·  5% BB  ·  3.41 ERA  ·  3.0 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$95M
worth $115M, owed $21M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$132M
average case $+132M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE38%
38% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
3.0 WAR a year on average
$+132M risk-adjusted × 38% confidence
= $+49M trade value
#20
KC · P · 20y
+$49M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$72M▲+$270M
2027MiLB$0.0M2.7—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.4+$10
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2.1+$14
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2.6+$16
2031Arb-1$6.8M2.9+$14
2032Arb-2$11M2.8+$10
2033Arb-3$16M2.9+$7
TOT$36M14.7+$72
0.01.53.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A+118.1 IP · 29.7% K · 6.0% BB · 3.95 ERA · 2.84 FIP
133 IP  ·  25% K  ·  5% BB  ·  3.58 ERA  ·  2.4 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$72M
worth $93M, owed $22M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$110M
average case $+110M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE45%
45% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
2.4 WAR a year on average
$+110M risk-adjusted × 45% confidence
= $+49M trade value
#21
WSH · P · 23y
+$49M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$60M▲+$246M
2027MiLB$0.0M2.3—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.2+$8
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2.0+$13
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2.5+$15
2031Arb-1$6.2M2.6+$12
2032Arb-2$9.7M2.4+$7
2033Arb-3$12M2.2+$5
TOT$31M12.9+$60
0.01.53.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
124 IP  ·  31% K  ·  8% BB  ·  3.52 ERA  ·  2.1 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$60M
worth $79M, owed $18M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$98M
average case $+98M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE50%
50% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
2.1 WAR a year on average
$+98M risk-adjusted × 50% confidence
= $+49M trade value
#22
PIT · P · 27y
+$49M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$1M+$61M▲+$166M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M3.0+$26
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2.4+$17
2029Arb-1$4.5M1.9+$9
2030Arb-2$5.9M1.5+$5
2031Arb-3$6.1M1.0+$2
TOT$18M9.8+$60
0.02.04.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB166.0 IP · 25.9% K · 5.2% BB · 3.63 ERA · 3.55 FIP · 4.1 WAR
115 IP  ·  25% K  ·  6% BB  ·  3.88 ERA  ·  2.0 WAR/yr
over 5 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$61M
worth $75M, owed $13M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$74M
average case $+74M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE66%
66% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
2.0 WAR a year on average
$+74M risk-adjusted × 66% confidence
= $+49M trade value
#23
LAD · P · 22y
+$48M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$58M▲+$241M
2027MiLB$0.0M2.7—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.4+$10
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2.0+$13
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2.2+$13
2031Arb-1$5.6M2.4+$11
2032Arb-2$9.1M2.3+$7
2033Arb-3$12M2.2+$5
TOT$30M12.5+$58
0.01.42.9273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AA/A+105.1 IP · 35.3% K · 4.9% BB · 3.59 ERA · 2.91 FIP
118 IP  ·  28% K  ·  5% BB  ·  3.57 ERA  ·  2.1 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$58M
worth $76M, owed $18M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$96M
average case $+96M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE50%
50% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
2.1 WAR a year on average
$+96M risk-adjusted × 50% confidence
= $+48M trade value
#24
MIL · P · 25y
+$47M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$6M+$48M▲+$147M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.6+$12
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2.1+$15
2029Arb-1$5.1M2.1+$10
2030Arb-2$8.1M2.0+$7
2031Arb-3$11M1.7+$3
TOT$25M9.5+$47
0.01.32.6273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA24.0 IP · 37.8% K · 11.2% BB · 1.50 ERA · 1.44 FIP
MLB99.0 IP · 29.6% K · 5.1% BB · 2.45 ERA · 3.37 FIP
95 IP  ·  28% K  ·  6% BB  ·  3.51 ERA  ·  1.9 WAR/yr
over 5 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$48M
worth $66M, owed $18M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$60M
average case $+62M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE78%
78% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.9 WAR a year on average
$+60M risk-adjusted × 78% confidence
= $+47M trade value
#25
TB · P · 32y
+$43M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$2M+$36M▲+$100M
2027Ext$5.3M3.1+$23
2028CLU OPT·EXE$8.0M2.3+$10
TOT$5.3M3.1+$23
0.02.04.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB172.0 IP · 26.0% K · 4.8% BB · 2.67 ERA · 2.87 FIP · 5.9 WAR
118 IP  ·  25% K  ·  5% BB  ·  3.40 ERA  ·  2.8 WAR/yr
over 2 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$36M
worth $49M, owed $12M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$43M
average case $+44M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE99%
99% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL2 yr
2.8 WAR a year on average
$+43M risk-adjusted × 99% confidence
= $+43M trade value
#26
LAA · P · 23y
+$41M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$2M+$48M▲+$114M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.6+$12
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.7+$12
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.8+$12
2030Arb-1$2.8M1.2+$6
2031Arb-2$4.5M1.1+$4
2032Arb-3$5.7M1.0+$2
TOT$15M8.4+$47
0.01.12.3273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA9.0 IP · 18.9% K · 10.8% BB · 6.00 ERA · 4.37 FIP
MLB149.0 IP · 22.7% K · 10.9% BB · 2.96 ERA · 3.67 FIP
90 IP  ·  25% K  ·  12% BB  ·  4.00 ERA  ·  1.4 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$48M
worth $58M, owed $10M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$52M
average case $+52M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE79%
79% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
1.4 WAR a year on average
$+52M risk-adjusted × 79% confidence
= $+41M trade value
#27
PIT · P · 24y
+$40M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$4M+$44M▲+$115M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.7+$13
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.9+$13
2029Arb-1$4.5M1.9+$9
2030Arb-2$5.5M1.4+$5
2031Arb-3$7.3M1.2+$2
TOT$19M8.1+$43
0.01.22.4273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB154.0 IP · 20.8% K · 11.9% BB · 4.50 ERA · 4.29 FIP · 2.4 WAR
106 IP  ·  25% K  ·  10% BB  ·  4.09 ERA  ·  1.6 WAR/yr
over 5 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$44M
worth $58M, owed $14M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$50M
average case $+51M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE81%
81% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.6 WAR a year on average
$+50M risk-adjusted × 81% confidence
= $+40M trade value
#28
BAL · P · 23y
+$39M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$54M▲+$216M
2027MiLB$0.0M3.2—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.4+$10
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.8+$12
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2.1+$13
2031Arb-1$5.2M2.2+$10
2032Arb-2$8.1M2.1+$7
2033Arb-3$10M1.8+$4
TOT$26M11.4+$54
0.01.42.7273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AA/A+133.1 IP · 29.0% K · 5.8% BB · 2.23 ERA · 2.55 FIP
125 IP  ·  24% K  ·  6% BB  ·  3.70 ERA  ·  1.9 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$54M
worth $70M, owed $16M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$87M
average case $+87M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE45%
45% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
1.9 WAR a year on average
$+87M risk-adjusted × 45% confidence
= $+39M trade value
#29
MIL · P · 21y
+$39M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$60M▲+$242M
2027MiLB$0.0M1.4—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.0+$7
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.9+$12
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2.3+$14
2031Arb-1$5.8M2.5+$11
2032Arb-2$10M2.7+$10
2033Arb-3$14M2.6+$6
TOT$33M13.0+$60
0.01.53.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
132 IP  ·  22% K  ·  5% BB  ·  3.80 ERA  ·  2.2 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$60M
worth $79M, owed $19M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$96M
average case $+96M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE40%
40% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
2.2 WAR a year on average
$+96M risk-adjusted × 40% confidence
= $+39M trade value
#30
ATL · P · 20y
+$38M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$44M▲+$195M
2027MiLB$0.0M1.0—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.8+$2
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.6+$10
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2.0+$12
2031Arb-1$5.2M2.2+$10
2032Arb-2$8.7M2.3+$7
2033Arb-3$13M2.4+$5
TOT$30M11.3+$47
0.01.42.9273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AA/A+116.0 IP · 25.8% K · 10.9% BB · 3.34 ERA · 3.41 FIP
127 IP  ·  25% K  ·  9% BB  ·  4.00 ERA  ·  1.9 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$44M
worth $62M, owed $17M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$76M
average case $+76M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE50%
50% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
2.1 WAR a year on average
$+76M risk-adjusted × 50% confidence
= $+38M trade value
#31
TEX · P · 22y
+$37M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$43M▲+$187M
2027MiLB$0.0M1.3—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.9+$3
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.6+$10
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2.0+$12
2031Arb-1$5.2M2.2+$10
2032Arb-2$8.4M2.2+$7
2033Arb-3$11M2.0+$4
TOT$27M10.9+$46
0.01.42.7273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A+/ROK53.0 IP · 24.0% K · 7.4% BB · 5.09 ERA · 3.47 FIP
126 IP  ·  25% K  ·  7% BB  ·  3.94 ERA  ·  1.8 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$43M
worth $59M, owed $16M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$74M
average case $+74M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE50%
50% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
2.0 WAR a year on average
$+74M risk-adjusted × 50% confidence
= $+37M trade value
#32
TB · P · 25y
+$37M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$2M+$56M▲+$184M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2.5+$19
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2.0+$14
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.9+$12
2030Arb-1$2.8M1.7+$9
2031Arb-2$3.7M1.5+$6
2032Arb-3$3.7M1.2+$4
TOT$13M10.8+$65
0.01.22.5273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA63.0 IP · 34.3% K · 10.2% BB · 3.00 ERA · 3.05 FIP
MLB9.1 IP · 32.4% K · 11.8% BB · 2.89 ERA · 3.47 FIP
102 IP  ·  28% K  ·  9% BB  ·  3.74 ERA  ·  1.6 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$56M
worth $65M, owed $9M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$76M
average case $+77M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE48%
48% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
1.6 WAR a year on average
$+76M risk-adjusted × 48% confidence
= $+37M trade value
#33
PIT · P · 25y
+$36M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$28M▲+$110M
2027Arb-1$4.8M2.3+$14
2028Arb-2$8.7M2.2+$8
2029Arb-3$13M2.2+$5
TOT$26M6.7+$27
0.01.42.9273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA/AA/A20.0 IP · 32.9% K · 8.2% BB · 2.70 ERA · 2.45 FIP
MLB103.1 IP · 29.6% K · 7.5% BB · 3.66 ERA · 3.27 FIP
106 IP  ·  31% K  ·  7% BB  ·  3.64 ERA  ·  2.3 WAR/yr
over 3 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$28M
worth $51M, owed $23M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$44M
average case $+44M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE82%
82% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
2.3 WAR a year on average
$+44M risk-adjusted × 82% confidence
= $+36M trade value
#34
DET · P · 21y
+$36M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$46M▲+$204M
2027MiLB$0.0M1.2—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.9+$3
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.7+$11
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2.1+$13
2031Arb-1$5.4M2.3+$10
2032Arb-2$9.4M2.4+$8
2033Arb-3$13M2.4+$5
TOT$31M11.8+$49
0.01.42.9273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A/ROK38.1 IP · 36.8% K · 6.5% BB · 3.29 ERA · 2.13 FIP
128 IP  ·  27% K  ·  9% BB  ·  3.89 ERA  ·  2.0 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$46M
worth $64M, owed $18M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$80M
average case $+80M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE45%
45% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
2.2 WAR a year on average
$+80M risk-adjusted × 45% confidence
= $+36M trade value
#35
CLE · P · 28y
+$35M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$6M+$29M▲+$96M
2027Arb-1$5.4M2.7+$17
2028Arb-2$7.3M2.0+$8
2029Arb-3$7.9M1.5+$4
TOT$21M6.2+$29
0.01.53.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB185.0 IP · 33.2% K · 8.2% BB · 3.75 ERA · 3.52 FIP · 4.6 WAR
138 IP  ·  30% K  ·  10% BB  ·  4.08 ERA  ·  2.1 WAR/yr
over 3 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$29M
worth $48M, owed $18M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$37M
average case $+39M, less $2M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE94%
94% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
2.1 WAR a year on average
$+37M risk-adjusted × 94% confidence
= $+35M trade value
#36
NYY · P · 23y
+$35M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$9M+$45M▲+$182M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.5+$11
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.6+$11
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.8+$12
2030Arb-1$6.4M1.8+$7
2031Arb-2$11M1.8+$4
2032Arb-3$14M1.6+$0
TOT$34M10.1+$45
0.01.12.3273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA107.0 IP · 23.4% K · 12.1% BB · 2.44 ERA · 3.45 FIP
MLB28.1 IP · 16.8% K · 12.8% BB · 5.08 ERA · 4.81 FIP
124 IP  ·  23% K  ·  10% BB  ·  4.16 ERA  ·  1.7 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$45M
worth $67M, owed $22M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$68M
average case $+70M, less $2M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE51%
51% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
1.7 WAR a year on average
$+68M risk-adjusted × 51% confidence
= $+35M trade value
#37
Cade Cavalli OPT
WSH · P · 28y
+$34M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$39M▲+$122M
2027Arb-1$6.6M3.2+$23
2028Arb-2$9.0M2.4+$10
2029Arb-3$10M1.8+$4
TOT$26M7.4+$37
0.02.04.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB171.1 IP · 28.3% K · 6.8% BB · 2.99 ERA · 3.30 FIP · 5.2 WAR
127 IP  ·  27% K  ·  7% BB  ·  3.74 ERA  ·  2.5 WAR/yr
over 3 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$39M
worth $62M, owed $23M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$52M
average case $+52M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE66%
66% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
2.5 WAR a year on average
$+52M risk-adjusted × 66% confidence
= $+34M trade value
#38
MIN · P · 21y
+$34M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$40M▲+$172M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.9—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.7+$2
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.5+$10
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.8+$11
2031Arb-1$4.6M2.0+$9
2032Arb-2$8.1M2.1+$7
2033Arb-3$11M2.0+$4
TOT$27M10.1+$42
0.01.32.6273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A4.1 IP · 20.0% K · 6.7% BB · 10.38 ERA · 5.46 FIP
123 IP  ·  25% K  ·  9% BB  ·  4.06 ERA  ·  1.7 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$40M
worth $55M, owed $15M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$68M
average case $+68M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE50%
50% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.9 WAR a year on average
$+68M risk-adjusted × 50% confidence
= $+34M trade value
#39
LAA · P · 28y
+$33M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$21M+$35M▲+$104M
2027Arb-2$12M3.6+$24
2028Arb-3$15M2.8+$9
TOT$27M6.4+$33
0.02.04.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB185.0 IP · 28.5% K · 6.5% BB · 3.36 ERA · 3.06 FIP · 5.8 WAR
147 IP  ·  28% K  ·  7% BB  ·  3.75 ERA  ·  3.2 WAR/yr
over 2 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$35M
worth $61M, owed $26M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$34M
average case $+39M, less $5M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE99%
99% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL2 yr
3.2 WAR a year on average
$+34M risk-adjusted × 99% confidence
= $+33M trade value
#40
ATL · P · 27y
+$33M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$7M+$38M▲+$130M
2027Arb-1$2.9M1.7+$11
2028Arb-2$5.6M2.5+$14
2029Arb-3$8.2M2.1+$8
2030Arb-4$9.8M1.7+$4
TOT$26M8.0+$36
0.01.53.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
95 IP  ·  26% K  ·  4% BB  ·  3.55 ERA  ·  2.1 WAR/yr
over 4 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$38M
worth $60M, owed $22M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$50M
average case $+52M, less $2M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE66%
66% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL4 yr
2.1 WAR a year on average
$+50M risk-adjusted × 66% confidence
= $+33M trade value
#41
STL · P · 20y
+$33M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$58M▲+$248M
2027MiLB$0.0M1.2—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.8—
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.7+$11
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2.0+$12
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2.3+$13
2032Arb-1$5.6M2.4+$10
2033Arb-2$9.4M2.5+$8
2034Arb-3$13M2.4+$5
TOT$31M13.3+$59
0.01.53.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AA/A+102.0 IP · 29.9% K · 7.6% BB · 3.79 ERA · 3.28 FIP
131 IP  ·  26% K  ·  8% BB  ·  3.85 ERA  ·  2.2 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$58M
worth $75M, owed $17M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$98M
average case $+98M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE34%
34% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
2.2 WAR a year on average
$+98M risk-adjusted × 34% confidence
= $+33M trade value
#42
WSH · P · 23y
+$32M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$39M▲+$163M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.6+$12
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.0+$7
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.6+$10
2030Arb-1$5.4M2.0+$9
2031Arb-2$8.4M2.1+$7
2032Arb-3$11M2.0+$4
TOT$28M10.3+$49
0.01.32.6273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA/AA/A+23.1 IP · 39.4% K · 11.7% BB · 5.40 ERA · 2.46 FIP
113 IP  ·  32% K  ·  12% BB  ·  3.81 ERA  ·  1.5 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$39M
worth $56M, owed $18M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$64M
average case $+64M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE50%
50% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
1.5 WAR a year on average
$+64M risk-adjusted × 50% confidence
= $+32M trade value
#43
BOS · P · 21y
+$32M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$42M▲+$180M
2027MiLB$0.0M1.2—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.8+$2
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.6+$10
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.9+$11
2031Arb-1$4.8M2.0+$9
2032Arb-2$8.1M2.1+$7
2033Arb-3$11M2.1+$5
TOT$27M10.5+$44
0.01.32.6273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A+10.0 IP · 47.2% K · 11.1% BB · 1.80 ERA · 2.25 FIP
128 IP  ·  25% K  ·  8% BB  ·  4.04 ERA  ·  1.8 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$42M
worth $57M, owed $15M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$71M
average case $+71M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE45%
45% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.9 WAR a year on average
$+71M risk-adjusted × 45% confidence
= $+32M trade value
#44
WSH · P · 21y
+$32M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$46M▲+$203M
2027MiLB$0.0M1.2—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.9+$3
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.7+$11
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2.1+$13
2031Arb-1$5.4M2.3+$10
2032Arb-2$9.4M2.4+$8
2033Arb-3$13M2.3+$5
TOT$30M11.7+$49
0.01.42.9273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
127 IP  ·  23% K  ·  6% BB  ·  3.88 ERA  ·  1.9 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$46M
worth $64M, owed $17M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$79M
average case $+79M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE40%
40% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
2.2 WAR a year on average
$+79M risk-adjusted × 40% confidence
= $+32M trade value
#45
TB · P · 22y
+$31M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$44M▲+$169M
2027MiLB$0.0M1.6—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.0+$7
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.6+$10
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.7+$10
2031Arb-1$4.4M1.8+$8
2032Arb-2$7.1M1.8+$6
2033Arb-3$9.4M1.7+$4
TOT$23M9.6+$44
0.01.12.3273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AA126.0 IP · 19.0% K · 4.0% BB · 4.50 ERA · 4.44 FIP
129 IP  ·  21% K  ·  3% BB  ·  4.11 ERA  ·  1.6 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$44M
worth $58M, owed $14M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$68M
average case $+68M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE45%
45% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
1.6 WAR a year on average
$+68M risk-adjusted × 45% confidence
= $+31M trade value
#46
CHC · P · 25y
+$31M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$6M+$34M▲+$96M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.1+$8
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.9+$13
2029Arb-1$5.3M1.7+$7
2030Arb-2$8.2M1.5+$4
2031Arb-3$10M1.2+$0
TOT$25M7.4+$33
0.01.22.4273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB8.0 IP · 15.4% K · 7.7% BB · 2.25 ERA · 4.53 FIP · 0.1 WAR
93 IP  ·  25% K  ·  7% BB  ·  3.89 ERA  ·  1.5 WAR/yr
over 5 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$34M
worth $53M, owed $18M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$39M
average case $+41M, less $2M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE79%
79% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.5 WAR a year on average
$+39M risk-adjusted × 79% confidence
= $+31M trade value
#47
TOR · P · 21y
+$31M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$40M▲+$174M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.6—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.6+$2
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.4+$9
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.8+$11
2031Arb-1$4.8M2.1+$9
2032Arb-2$8.4M2.2+$7
2033Arb-3$12M2.1+$4
TOT$28M10.2+$42
0.01.42.7273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A+62.0 IP · 34.1% K · 15.3% BB · 5.23 ERA · 2.78 FIP
125 IP  ·  28% K  ·  12% BB  ·  4.12 ERA  ·  1.7 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$40M
worth $56M, owed $16M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$68M
average case $+68M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE45%
45% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.9 WAR a year on average
$+68M risk-adjusted × 45% confidence
= $+31M trade value
#48
SD · P · 22y
+$30M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$37M▲+$154M
2027MiLB$0.0M1.0—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.8+$2
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.3+$8
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.8+$11
2031Arb-1$4.6M1.9+$8
2032Arb-2$7.1M1.9+$6
2033Arb-3$9.4M1.7+$4
TOT$24M9.4+$39
0.01.22.4273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A+54.0 IP · 29.0% K · 10.3% BB · 3.50 ERA · 3.45 FIP
123 IP  ·  25% K  ·  9% BB  ·  4.11 ERA  ·  1.6 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$37M
worth $51M, owed $14M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$61M
average case $+61M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE50%
50% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.7 WAR a year on average
$+61M risk-adjusted × 50% confidence
= $+30M trade value
#49
PHI · P · 24y
+$30M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$2M+$37M▲+$84M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.3+$10
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.3+$9
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.4+$9
2030Arb-1$2.8M1.2+$6
2031Arb-2$4.2M1.1+$4
2032Arb-3$4.6M0.8+$0
TOT$14M7.1+$37
0.00.91.9273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA25.1 IP · 24.8% K · 7.9% BB · 4.26 ERA · 3.15 FIP
MLB128.1 IP · 20.8% K · 8.5% BB · 5.33 ERA · 4.70 FIP
97 IP  ·  24% K  ·  8% BB  ·  4.36 ERA  ·  1.2 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$37M
worth $44M, owed $7M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$39M
average case $+39M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE79%
79% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.3 WAR a year on average
$+39M risk-adjusted × 79% confidence
= $+30M trade value
#50
STL · P · 25y
+$29M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$43M▲+$147M
2027MiLB$0.0M2.4—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.9+$13
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.7+$11
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.6+$10
2031Arb-1$3.2M1.4+$6
2032Arb-2$4.0M1.0+$3
2033Arb-3$4.0M0.7+$0
TOT$14M8.3+$43
0.01.22.4273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA/AA82.1 IP · 31.1% K · 9.7% BB · 3.72 ERA · 3.82 FIP
MLB3.0 IP · 21.4% K · 7.1% BB · 21.00 ERA · 7.48 FIP
127 IP  ·  25% K  ·  8% BB  ·  4.26 ERA  ·  1.4 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$43M
worth $50M, owed $6M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$61M
average case $+61M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE47%
47% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.5 WAR a year on average
$+61M risk-adjusted × 47% confidence
= $+29M trade value
#51
LAA · P · 23y
+$28M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$48M▲+$186M
2027MiLB$0.0M1.6—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.9—
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.5+$10
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2.0+$12
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2.0+$11
2032Arb-1$4.4M1.9+$8
2033Arb-2$6.4M1.6+$5
2034Arb-3$7.4M1.3+$3
TOT$21M10.3+$48
0.01.22.5273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AA/A+74.0 IP · 32.9% K · 8.9% BB · 4.26 ERA · 2.95 FIP
117 IP  ·  27% K  ·  8% BB  ·  3.91 ERA  ·  1.7 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$48M
worth $60M, owed $11M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$75M
average case $+75M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE38%
38% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
1.7 WAR a year on average
$+75M risk-adjusted × 38% confidence
= $+28M trade value
#52
DET · P · 28y
+$27M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$7M+$41M▲+$138M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2.6+$21
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.6+$11
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.3+$8
2030Arb-1$3.4M0.9+$0
2031Arb-2$3.7M0.6+$0
2032Arb-3$3.7M0.4+$0
TOT$13M7.4+$40
0.01.53.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA41.0 IP · 26.4% K · 5.1% BB · 4.39 ERA · 2.37 FIP
MLB5.0 IP · 28.6% K · 14.3% BB · 3.60 ERA · 5.15 FIP
93 IP  ·  22% K  ·  8% BB  ·  4.19 ERA  ·  1.2 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$41M
worth $44M, owed $2M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$54M
average case $+56M, less $2M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE50%
50% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
1.9 WAR a year on average
$+54M risk-adjusted × 50% confidence
= $+27M trade value
#53
MIA · P · 24y
+$27M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$9M+$24M▲+$86M
2027Arb-1$4.0M1.9+$11
2028Arb-2$7.6M2.0+$8
2029Arb-3$12M2.0+$4
TOT$23M5.9+$24
0.01.22.5273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA5.1 IP · 38.5% K · 0.0% BB · 1.69 ERA · 1.27 FIP
MLB159.0 IP · 25.8% K · 10.3% BB · 3.91 ERA · 4.12 FIP
132 IP  ·  28% K  ·  9% BB  ·  4.09 ERA  ·  2.0 WAR/yr
over 3 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$24M
worth $45M, owed $20M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$31M
average case $+33M, less $2M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE87%
87% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
2.0 WAR a year on average
$+31M risk-adjusted × 87% confidence
= $+27M trade value
#54
SF · P · 22y
+$26M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$36M▲+$147M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.9—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.7+$2
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.3+$8
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.7+$10
2031Arb-1$4.4M1.9+$8
2032Arb-2$7.1M1.8+$6
2033Arb-3$9.4M1.7+$4
TOT$23M9.1+$38
0.01.22.4273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A95.1 IP · 33.6% K · 11.8% BB · 4.53 ERA · 3.51 FIP
124 IP  ·  26% K  ·  9% BB  ·  4.16 ERA  ·  1.5 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$36M
worth $50M, owed $13M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$59M
average case $+59M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE45%
45% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.7 WAR a year on average
$+59M risk-adjusted × 45% confidence
= $+26M trade value
#55
TOR · P · 23y
+$25M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$42M▲+$144M
2027MiLB$0.0M1.3—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.9—
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.4+$9
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.7+$10
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M1.7+$9
2032Arb-1$3.6M1.6+$7
2033Arb-2$5.0M1.3+$4
2034Arb-3$5.5M1.1+$3
TOT$17M8.8+$42
0.01.12.2273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AA/A+/A84.1 IP · 36.0% K · 9.8% BB · 2.45 ERA · 2.73 FIP
110 IP  ·  27% K  ·  10% BB  ·  4.10 ERA  ·  1.5 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$42M
worth $51M, owed $9M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$60M
average case $+60M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE41%
41% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
1.5 WAR a year on average
$+60M risk-adjusted × 41% confidence
= $+25M trade value
#56
KC · P · 18y
+$24M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$41M▲+$185M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.6—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.3—
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M0.8+$2
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.4+$8
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M1.9+$11
2032Arb-1$5.6M2.3+$9
2033Arb-2$9.7M2.5+$8
2034Arb-3$15M2.6+$5
TOT$33M11.5+$43
0.01.53.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
121 IP  ·  26% K  ·  8% BB  ·  3.88 ERA  ·  1.9 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$41M
worth $58M, owed $17M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$72M
average case $+72M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE34%
34% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
2.1 WAR a year on average
$+72M risk-adjusted × 34% confidence
= $+24M trade value
#57
CIN · P · 19y
+$24M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$56M▲+$242M
2027MiLB$0.0M1.3—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.5—
2029MiLB$0.0M1.1—
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.7+$10
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2.1+$12
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2.3+$12
2033Arb-1$5.8M2.5+$10
2034Arb-2$10M2.6+$8
2035Arb-3$14M2.5+$5
TOT$33M13.7+$56
0.01.53.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A/ROK57.1 IP · 31.3% K · 7.0% BB · 3.77 ERA · 2.12 FIP
129 IP  ·  25% K  ·  6% BB  ·  3.73 ERA  ·  2.3 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$56M
worth $72M, owed $16M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$95M
average case $+95M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE25%
25% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
2.3 WAR a year on average
$+95M risk-adjusted × 25% confidence
= $+24M trade value
#58
MIL · P · 25y
+$24M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$38M▲+$124M
2027MiLB$0.0M2.7—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.3+$9
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.5+$10
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.6+$10
2031Arb-1$3.4M1.4+$6
2032Arb-2$4.7M1.2+$4
2033Arb-3$5.0M0.9+$0
TOT$16M7.9+$38
0.01.12.1273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA/AA121.0 IP · 26.9% K · 7.2% BB · 5.28 ERA · 2.98 FIP
115 IP  ·  22% K  ·  7% BB  ·  4.05 ERA  ·  1.3 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$38M
worth $45M, owed $7M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$53M
average case $+53M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE45%
45% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.4 WAR a year on average
$+53M risk-adjusted × 45% confidence
= $+24M trade value
#59
MIN · P · 26y
+$23M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$6M+$22M▲+$62M
2027Arb-1$4.0M2.0+$12
2028Arb-2$5.9M1.6+$7
2029Arb-3$7.4M1.3+$3
TOT$17M4.9+$21
0.01.22.5273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA3.1 IP · 33.3% K · 22.2% BB · 2.70 ERA · 3.15 FIP
MLB179.0 IP · 27.4% K · 10.2% BB · 3.72 ERA · 3.87 FIP
123 IP  ·  26% K  ·  10% BB  ·  4.28 ERA  ·  1.6 WAR/yr
over 3 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$22M
worth $37M, owed $15M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$24M
average case $+26M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE96%
96% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
1.6 WAR a year on average
$+24M risk-adjusted × 96% confidence
= $+23M trade value
#60
CWS · P · 23y
+$23M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$5M+$31M▲+$84M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M0.8+$2
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.2+$8
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.4+$9
2030Arb-1$3.9M1.6+$7
2031Arb-2$6.1M1.5+$5
2032Arb-3$8.6M1.3+$2
TOT$21M7.8+$34
0.01.12.1273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA46.1 IP · 26.3% K · 7.8% BB · 1.94 ERA · 3.34 FIP
MLB75.0 IP · 20.7% K · 9.6% BB · 5.52 ERA · 4.87 FIP
93 IP  ·  26% K  ·  9% BB  ·  4.19 ERA  ·  1.3 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$31M
worth $45M, owed $13M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$35M
average case $+36M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE66%
66% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.4 WAR a year on average
$+35M risk-adjusted × 66% confidence
= $+23M trade value
#61
MIA · P · 21y
+$22M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$32M▲+$125M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.3—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.4+$1
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.0+$6
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.4+$8
2031Arb-1$3.8M1.7+$8
2032Arb-2$6.7M1.8+$6
2033Arb-3$9.4M1.7+$4
TOT$22M8.0+$32
0.01.12.3273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A20.0 IP · 31.2% K · 11.7% BB · 2.70 ERA · 3.55 FIP
119 IP  ·  25% K  ·  11% BB  ·  4.36 ERA  ·  1.3 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$32M
worth $44M, owed $13M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$50M
average case $+50M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE45%
45% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.5 WAR a year on average
$+50M risk-adjusted × 45% confidence
= $+22M trade value
#62
PHI · P · 23y
+$22M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$41M▲+$143M
2027MiLB$0.0M1.5—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.8—
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.3+$8
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.7+$10
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M1.7+$9
2032Arb-1$3.6M1.6+$7
2033Arb-2$5.0M1.4+$4
2034Arb-3$6.0M1.1+$2
TOT$17M8.8+$41
0.01.12.2273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AA/A97.1 IP · 34.4% K · 7.4% BB · 4.25 ERA · 3.54 FIP
115 IP  ·  26% K  ·  8% BB  ·  4.10 ERA  ·  1.5 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$41M
worth $51M, owed $10M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$60M
average case $+60M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE38%
38% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
1.5 WAR a year on average
$+60M risk-adjusted × 38% confidence
= $+22M trade value
#63
MIN · P · 26y
+$22M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$2M+$25M▲+$63M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.9+$14
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.6+$11
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.4+$9
2030Arb-1$2.6M1.1+$5
2031Arb-2$3.4M0.8+$0
2032Arb-3$3.4M0.5+$0
TOT$12M7.3+$40
0.01.22.5273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA20.1 IP · 34.2% K · 12.3% BB · 1.77 ERA · 2.66 FIP
MLB127.1 IP · 23.9% K · 8.2% BB · 4.81 ERA · 3.77 FIP
85 IP  ·  25% K  ·  9% BB  ·  4.12 ERA  ·  1.2 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$25M
worth $29M, owed $4M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$28M
average case $+28M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE79%
79% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL4 yr
1.5 WAR a year on average
$+28M risk-adjusted × 79% confidence
= $+22M trade value
#64
SEA · P · 29y
+$22M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$7M+$16M▲+$63M
2027Arb-2$8.4M2.4+$11
2028Arb-3$8.7M1.7+$5
TOT$17M4.1+$16
0.01.53.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB176.1 IP · 20.0% K · 6.3% BB · 4.29 ERA · 3.94 FIP · 3.3 WAR
127 IP  ·  22% K  ·  6% BB  ·  4.04 ERA  ·  2.1 WAR/yr
over 2 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$16M
worth $33M, owed $16M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$22M
average case $+23M, less $2M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE100%
100% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL2 yr
2.1 WAR a year on average
$+22M risk-adjusted × 100% confidence
= $+22M trade value
#65
MIL · P · 26y
+$21M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$2M+$34M▲+$102M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.8+$14
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.3+$9
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.2+$8
2030Arb-1$3.7M1.0+$4
2031Arb-2$4.2M0.7+$0
2032Arb-3$4.2M0.4+$0
TOT$14M6.4+$34
0.01.12.3273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA106.0 IP · 23.3% K · 8.0% BB · 3.57 ERA · 3.56 FIP
MLB20.1 IP · 11.8% K · 7.1% BB · 4.87 ERA · 4.48 FIP
108 IP  ·  19% K  ·  7% BB  ·  4.41 ERA  ·  1.1 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$34M
worth $39M, owed $5M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$43M
average case $+43M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE50%
50% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL4 yr
1.3 WAR a year on average
$+43M risk-adjusted × 50% confidence
= $+21M trade value
#66
TOR · P · 21y
+$21M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$42M▲+$154M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.9—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.7—
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.3+$8
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.7+$10
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M1.6+$9
2032Arb-1$3.8M1.7+$7
2033Arb-2$6.0M1.6+$5
2034Arb-3$7.9M1.4+$3
TOT$20M9.3+$42
0.01.12.2273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AA/A+106.0 IP · 30.5% K · 13.6% BB · 3.14 ERA · 3.38 FIP
110 IP  ·  27% K  ·  11% BB  ·  4.09 ERA  ·  1.6 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$42M
worth $53M, owed $11M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$63M
average case $+63M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE34%
34% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
1.6 WAR a year on average
$+63M risk-adjusted × 34% confidence
= $+21M trade value
#67
SF · P · 22y
+$21M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$32M▲+$115M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.9—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.7+$2
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.2+$8
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.5+$9
2031Arb-1$3.8M1.6+$7
2032Arb-2$6.0M1.6+$5
2033Arb-3$7.9M1.4+$3
TOT$20M8.0+$33
0.01.12.1273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AA/A+116.1 IP · 28.9% K · 9.6% BB · 3.17 ERA · 3.66 FIP
124 IP  ·  25% K  ·  10% BB  ·  4.28 ERA  ·  1.3 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$32M
worth $43M, owed $12M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$47M
average case $+47M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE45%
45% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.5 WAR a year on average
$+47M risk-adjusted × 45% confidence
= $+21M trade value
#68
ATL · P · 20y
+$21M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$45M▲+$186M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.3—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.3—
2029MiLB$0.0M0.9—
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.4+$8
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M1.8+$10
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M1.9+$10
2033Arb-1$4.4M2.0+$8
2034Arb-2$7.1M1.9+$6
2035Arb-3$9.4M1.7+$3
TOT$24M10.7+$45
0.01.22.5273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A+/A/ROK28.1 IP · 28.7% K · 11.1% BB · 1.91 ERA · 2.69 FIP
124 IP  ·  26% K  ·  10% BB  ·  4.13 ERA  ·  1.8 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$45M
worth $56M, owed $12M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$74M
average case $+74M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE28%
28% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
1.8 WAR a year on average
$+74M risk-adjusted × 28% confidence
= $+21M trade value
#69
BAL · P · 28y
+$20M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$5M+$21M▲+$56M
2027Ext$1.0M2.1+$16
2028Arb-3$7.7M1.5+$4
TOT$8.7M3.6+$20
0.01.42.7273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB181.1 IP · 20.0% K · 8.2% BB · 4.07 ERA · 3.67 FIP · 4.2 WAR
121 IP  ·  22% K  ·  9% BB  ·  4.16 ERA  ·  1.9 WAR/yr
over 2 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$21M
worth $29M, owed $8M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$22M
average case $+24M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE92%
92% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL2 yr
1.9 WAR a year on average
$+22M risk-adjusted × 92% confidence
= $+20M trade value
#70
STL · P · 23y
+$20M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$28M▲+$86M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.9—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.7+$2
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.1+$7
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.4+$8
2031Arb-1$3.0M1.4+$6
2032Arb-2$4.7M1.2+$4
2033Arb-3$5.5M1.0+$2
TOT$16M6.8+$29
0.00.91.9273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AA103.0 IP · 30.0% K · 12.5% BB · 3.76 ERA · 3.55 FIP
109 IP  ·  26% K  ·  11% BB  ·  4.35 ERA  ·  1.1 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$28M
worth $36M, owed $9M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$37M
average case $+37M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE55%
55% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.2 WAR a year on average
$+37M risk-adjusted × 55% confidence
= $+20M trade value
#71
NYM · P · 22y
+$20M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$41M▲+$141M
2027MiLB$0.0M1.4—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.9—
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.5+$10
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.5+$9
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M1.6+$9
2032Arb-1$3.6M1.6+$7
2033Arb-2$5.4M1.4+$4
2034Arb-3$6.5M1.2+$3
TOT$18M8.8+$41
0.01.12.1273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA/AA/A+141.1 IP · 20.1% K · 4.9% BB · 4.20 ERA · 3.89 FIP
126 IP  ·  20% K  ·  5% BB  ·  4.25 ERA  ·  1.5 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$41M
worth $51M, owed $10M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$59M
average case $+59M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE34%
34% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
1.5 WAR a year on average
$+59M risk-adjusted × 34% confidence
= $+20M trade value
#72
HOU · P · 30y
+$20M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$5M+$34M▲+$87M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.9+$14
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.8+$13
2029Arb-1$3.0M1.2+$6
2030Arb-2$3.3M0.7+$0
2031Arb-3$3.3M0.3+$0
TOT$11M5.9+$33
0.01.32.6273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
92 IP  ·  20% K  ·  4% BB  ·  4.09 ERA  ·  1.2 WAR/yr
over 5 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$34M
worth $38M, owed $4M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$37M
average case $+38M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE53%
53% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
1.7 WAR a year on average
$+37M risk-adjusted × 53% confidence
= $+20M trade value
#73
TEX · P · 24y
+$19M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$30M▲+$96M
2027MiLB$0.0M1.0—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.3+$9
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.3+$8
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.3+$8
2031Arb-1$2.6M1.1+$5
2032Arb-2$3.4M0.9+$0
2033Arb-3$4.0M0.7+$0
TOT$12M6.6+$30
0.00.91.8273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA36.0 IP · 16.4% K · 9.7% BB · 6.25 ERA · 3.51 FIP
MLB5.0 IP · 14.3% K · 14.3% BB · 18.00 ERA · 9.15 FIP
87 IP  ·  19% K  ·  8% BB  ·  4.18 ERA  ·  1.1 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$30M
worth $33M, owed $4M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$40M
average case $+40M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE48%
48% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL4 yr
1.2 WAR a year on average
$+40M risk-adjusted × 48% confidence
= $+19M trade value
#74
CLE · P · 27y
+$19M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$2M+$31M▲+$105M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2.1+$16
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.2+$8
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.0+$6
2030Arb-1$2.8M0.8+$1
2031Arb-2$3.2M0.5+$0
2032Arb-3$3.2M0.3+$0
TOT$12M5.9+$31
0.01.42.7273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA102.0 IP · 24.4% K · 8.7% BB · 4.41 ERA · 3.91 FIP
MLB7.0 IP · 29.6% K · 7.4% BB · 2.57 ERA · 5.44 FIP
121 IP  ·  19% K  ·  7% BB  ·  4.56 ERA  ·  1.0 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$31M
worth $33M, owed $2M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$43M
average case $+44M, less $0M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE45%
45% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
1.5 WAR a year on average
$+43M risk-adjusted × 45% confidence
= $+19M trade value
#75
BAL · P · 23y
+$19M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$26M▲+$109M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.4+$10
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.9+$3
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.4+$9
2030Arb-1$4.4M1.7+$8
2031Arb-2$7.1M1.7+$5
2032Arb-3$9.4M1.6+$3
TOT$23M8.7+$38
0.01.12.2273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA/AA117.0 IP · 25.4% K · 11.0% BB · 3.85 ERA · 3.64 FIP
114 IP  ·  23% K  ·  9% BB  ·  4.05 ERA  ·  1.2 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$26M
worth $40M, owed $14M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$43M
average case $+43M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE45%
45% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.3 WAR a year on average
$+43M risk-adjusted × 45% confidence
= $+19M trade value
#76
TOR · P · 28y
+$19M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$14M▲+$50M
2027Arb-2$7.4M2.2+$10
2028Arb-3$7.7M1.5+$4
TOT$15M3.7+$14
0.01.42.7273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB178.0 IP · 22.7% K · 9.8% BB · 3.89 ERA · 3.95 FIP · 3.6 WAR
118 IP  ·  23% K  ·  10% BB  ·  4.12 ERA  ·  1.9 WAR/yr
over 2 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$14M
worth $29M, owed $14M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$21M
average case $+21M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE93%
93% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL2 yr
1.9 WAR a year on average
$+21M risk-adjusted × 93% confidence
= $+19M trade value
#77
BOS · P · 26y
+$19M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$2M+$23M▲+$54M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.7+$13
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.6+$11
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.3+$8
2030Arb-1$2.4M1.0+$5
2031Arb-2$3.0M0.7+$0
2032Arb-3$3.0M0.4+$0
TOT$11M6.7+$37
0.01.12.3273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA40.0 IP · 26.1% K · 5.7% BB · 1.57 ERA · 2.65 FIP
MLB114.0 IP · 20.0% K · 4.6% BB · 3.63 ERA · 3.55 FIP
78 IP  ·  19% K  ·  5% BB  ·  4.06 ERA  ·  1.1 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$23M
worth $27M, owed $4M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$25M
average case $+25M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE78%
78% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL4 yr
1.4 WAR a year on average
$+25M risk-adjusted × 78% confidence
= $+19M trade value
#78
MIN · P · 25y
+$19M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$3M+$29M▲+$70M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.4+$10
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.5+$10
2029Arb-1$4.2M1.2+$5
2030Arb-2$5.7M1.0+$2
2031Arb-3$6.3M0.7+$0
TOT$18M5.8+$28
0.01.12.1273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA8.0 IP · 33.3% K · 0.0% BB · 1.12 ERA · 2.27 FIP
MLB21.0 IP · 24.7% K · 10.8% BB · 3.86 ERA · 2.82 FIP
98 IP  ·  24% K  ·  10% BB  ·  4.33 ERA  ·  1.2 WAR/yr
over 5 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$29M
worth $38M, owed $9M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$31M
average case $+32M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE62%
62% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL4 yr
1.3 WAR a year on average
$+31M risk-adjusted × 62% confidence
= $+19M trade value
#79
MIL · P · 22y
+$19M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$37M▲+$122M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.7—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.6—
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.1+$7
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.4+$8
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M1.6+$9
2032Arb-1$3.4M1.5+$6
2033Arb-2$5.0M1.4+$4
2034Arb-3$6.5M1.1+$2
TOT$17M8.1+$37
0.01.12.1273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AA96.1 IP · 23.5% K · 11.1% BB · 4.76 ERA · 4.19 FIP
118 IP  ·  24% K  ·  9% BB  ·  4.28 ERA  ·  1.3 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$37M
worth $46M, owed $10M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$51M
average case $+51M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE38%
38% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
1.3 WAR a year on average
$+51M risk-adjusted × 38% confidence
= $+19M trade value
#80
LAD · P · 23y
+$19M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$28M▲+$89M
2027MiLB$0.0M1.2—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.7+$2
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.1+$7
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.4+$8
2031Arb-1$3.4M1.4+$6
2032Arb-2$5.0M1.3+$4
2033Arb-3$6.5M1.1+$2
TOT$17M7.0+$29
0.00.91.9273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AA/A+77.0 IP · 32.1% K · 11.2% BB · 3.51 ERA · 2.76 FIP
110 IP  ·  24% K  ·  9% BB  ·  4.20 ERA  ·  1.2 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$28M
worth $38M, owed $10M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$38M
average case $+38M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE50%
50% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.3 WAR a year on average
$+38M risk-adjusted × 50% confidence
= $+19M trade value
#81
PHI · P · 22y
+$19M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$39M▲+$132M
2027MiLB$0.0M1.7—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.9—
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.4+$9
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.4+$8
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M1.6+$9
2032Arb-1$3.6M1.5+$6
2033Arb-2$5.4M1.4+$4
2034Arb-3$6.5M1.2+$3
TOT$18M8.5+$39
0.01.12.1273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A102.0 IP · 26.6% K · 5.3% BB · 3.97 ERA · 3.11 FIP
100 IP  ·  23% K  ·  6% BB  ·  4.01 ERA  ·  1.4 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$39M
worth $49M, owed $10M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$55M
average case $+55M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE34%
34% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
1.4 WAR a year on average
$+55M risk-adjusted × 34% confidence
= $+19M trade value
#82
ARI · P · 24y
+$18M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$6M+$30M▲+$97M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.1+$8
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.1+$7
2029Arb-1$4.0M1.4+$6
2030Arb-2$6.6M1.4+$4
2031Arb-3$8.4M1.3+$2
TOT$21M6.3+$28
0.00.91.9273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
128 IP  ·  24% K  ·  9% BB  ·  4.32 ERA  ·  1.3 WAR/yr
over 5 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$30M
worth $45M, owed $15M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$38M
average case $+39M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE48%
48% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.3 WAR a year on average
$+38M risk-adjusted × 48% confidence
= $+18M trade value
#83
NYY · P · 28y
+$18M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$1M+$19M▲+$46M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.7+$13
2028Arb-1$2.5M1.1+$6
2029Arb-2$2.9M0.7+$0
2030Arb-3$2.9M0.4+$0
TOT$9.1M3.9+$19
0.01.12.2273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB156.0 IP · 23.3% K · 8.0% BB · 3.92 ERA · 3.99 FIP · 2.9 WAR
93 IP  ·  22% K  ·  9% BB  ·  4.49 ERA  ·  1.0 WAR/yr
over 4 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$19M
worth $22M, owed $3M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$21M
average case $+21M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE87%
87% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL2 yr
1.4 WAR a year on average
$+21M risk-adjusted × 87% confidence
= $+18M trade value
#84
NYY · P · 22y
+$18M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$28M▲+$94M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.5—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.5+$1
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.0+$6
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.3+$8
2031Arb-1$3.4M1.5+$7
2032Arb-2$5.4M1.4+$4
2033Arb-3$6.9M1.3+$3
TOT$18M7.0+$29
0.01.02.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AA/A+92.0 IP · 25.6% K · 11.1% BB · 5.77 ERA · 4.75 FIP
118 IP  ·  24% K  ·  9% BB  ·  4.42 ERA  ·  1.2 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$28M
worth $38M, owed $10M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$40M
average case $+40M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE45%
45% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.3 WAR a year on average
$+40M risk-adjusted × 45% confidence
= $+18M trade value
#85
LAD · P · 25y
+$18M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$20M▲+$47M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.0+$7
2028Arb-1$2.7M1.2+$6
2029Arb-2$4.3M1.1+$4
2030Arb-3$6.0M1.0+$2
TOT$14M4.3+$20
0.00.81.7273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB123.0 IP · 23.6% K · 9.2% BB · 4.46 ERA · 4.77 FIP · 1.1 WAR
95 IP  ·  28% K  ·  9% BB  ·  4.37 ERA  ·  1.1 WAR/yr
over 4 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$20M
worth $31M, owed $11M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$22M
average case $+22M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE80%
80% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL4 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+22M risk-adjusted × 80% confidence
= $+18M trade value
#86
MIA · P · 22y
+$17M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$44M▲+$170M
2027MiLB$0.0M1.1—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.8—
2029MiLB$0.0M1.4—
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.8+$11
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M1.9+$11
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M1.9+$10
2033Arb-1$3.8M1.7+$7
2034Arb-2$5.4M1.4+$4
2035Arb-3$6.0M1.1+$2
TOT$18M9.8+$44
0.01.22.4273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AA/A+106.1 IP · 33.3% K · 11.2% BB · 2.88 ERA · 2.72 FIP
119 IP  ·  27% K  ·  11% BB  ·  4.09 ERA  ·  1.6 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$44M
worth $53M, owed $9M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$69M
average case $+69M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE25%
25% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
1.6 WAR a year on average
$+69M risk-adjusted × 25% confidence
= $+17M trade value
#87
OAK · P · 23y
+$17M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$23M▲+$86M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.1+$8
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.7+$2
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.2+$8
2030Arb-1$4.0M1.5+$7
2031Arb-2$6.4M1.5+$5
2032Arb-3$8.4M1.4+$3
TOT$21M7.4+$31
0.01.02.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA/AA119.0 IP · 25.0% K · 10.0% BB · 3.48 ERA · 3.46 FIP
114 IP  ·  24% K  ·  10% BB  ·  4.23 ERA  ·  1.1 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$23M
worth $36M, owed $13M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$35M
average case $+35M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE50%
50% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.2 WAR a year on average
$+35M risk-adjusted × 50% confidence
= $+17M trade value
#88
CWS · P · 27y
+$17M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$2M+$21M▲+$58M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.8+$14
2028Arb-1$2.9M1.3+$7
2029Arb-2$3.6M0.9+$0
2030Arb-3$3.6M0.6+$0
TOT$11M4.6+$21
0.01.12.3273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB173.0 IP · 25.8% K · 8.7% BB · 3.33 ERA · 3.67 FIP · 4.1 WAR
106 IP  ·  24% K  ·  10% BB  ·  4.35 ERA  ·  1.1 WAR/yr
over 4 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$21M
worth $24M, owed $3M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$25M
average case $+25M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE69%
69% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL2 yr
1.6 WAR a year on average
$+25M risk-adjusted × 69% confidence
= $+17M trade value
#89
OAK · P · 24y
+$17M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$3M+$22M▲+$55M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.4+$10
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.4+$10
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.4+$9
2030Arb-1$3.3M1.3+$6
2031Arb-2$4.9M1.2+$4
2032Arb-3$5.7M0.9+$0
TOT$16M7.6+$39
0.00.91.9273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA38.0 IP · 33.1% K · 11.8% BB · 4.50 ERA · 3.47 FIP
MLB100.1 IP · 24.7% K · 10.5% BB · 5.38 ERA · 4.05 FIP
87 IP  ·  26% K  ·  9% BB  ·  4.14 ERA  ·  1.3 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$22M
worth $30M, owed $8M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$24M
average case $+24M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE73%
73% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.3 WAR a year on average
$+24M risk-adjusted × 73% confidence
= $+17M trade value
#90
CWS · P · 23y
+$17M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$3M+$23M▲+$84M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.3+$10
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.3+$9
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.6+$10
2030Arb-1$2.4M1.7+$9
2031Arb-2$4.2M1.6+$7
2032Arb-3$5.6M1.5+$5
TOT$15M9.0+$50
0.01.12.2273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA59.0 IP · 34.5% K · 15.9% BB · 4.27 ERA · 4.20 FIP
MLB28.0 IP · 37.3% K · 14.5% BB · 1.29 ERA · 2.40 FIP
95 IP  ·  31% K  ·  14% BB  ·  3.92 ERA  ·  1.3 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$23M
worth $32M, owed $9M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$32M
average case $+33M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE52%
52% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.5 WAR a year on average
$+32M risk-adjusted × 52% confidence
= $+17M trade value
#91
STL · P · 25y
+$17M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$28M▲+$86M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2.0+$15
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.0+$7
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.2+$8
2030Arb-1$3.2M1.2+$5
2031Arb-2$4.4M1.1+$4
2032Arb-3$5.0M0.8+$0
TOT$15M7.3+$38
0.00.81.7273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
110 IP  ·  24% K  ·  7% BB  ·  4.17 ERA  ·  1.0 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$28M
worth $35M, owed $7M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$37M
average case $+37M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE45%
45% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.0 WAR a year on average
$+37M risk-adjusted × 45% confidence
= $+17M trade value
#92
HOU · P · 28y
+$16M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$8M+$14M▲+$50M
2027Arb-2$6.7M1.9+$8
2028Arb-3$9.7M1.8+$5
TOT$16M3.7+$13
0.01.22.5273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA/AA15.0 IP · 38.9% K · 5.6% BB · 1.80 ERA · 2.68 FIP
MLB108.0 IP · 27.5% K · 12.2% BB · 3.17 ERA · 3.82 FIP
103 IP  ·  28% K  ·  10% BB  ·  3.71 ERA  ·  1.9 WAR/yr
over 2 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$14M
worth $29M, owed $15M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$16M
average case $+18M, less $2M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE99%
99% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL2 yr
1.9 WAR a year on average
$+16M risk-adjusted × 99% confidence
= $+16M trade value
#93
LAA · P · 25y
+$16M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$2M+$24M▲+$76M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.3+$10
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.2+$8
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.0+$6
2030Arb-1$3.1M0.9+$1
2031Arb-2$4.2M0.7+$0
2032Arb-3$4.2M0.4+$0
TOT$14M5.5+$25
0.00.91.8273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA91.0 IP · 22.3% K · 11.6% BB · 3.96 ERA · 4.02 FIP
MLB27.0 IP · 19.2% K · 16.8% BB · 3.67 ERA · 4.78 FIP
116 IP  ·  23% K  ·  12% BB  ·  4.63 ERA  ·  0.9 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$24M
worth $26M, owed $2M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$31M
average case $+32M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE52%
52% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
1.2 WAR a year on average
$+31M risk-adjusted × 52% confidence
= $+16M trade value
#94
BAL · P · 22y
+$16M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$21M▲+$75M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.4—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.5+$1
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M0.9+$2
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.3+$8
2031Arb-1$3.2M1.4+$6
2032Arb-2$5.0M1.4+$5
2033Arb-3$6.5M1.2+$3
TOT$17M6.7+$25
0.00.91.9273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A+91.1 IP · 25.7% K · 11.5% BB · 4.14 ERA · 4.07 FIP
117 IP  ·  24% K  ·  10% BB  ·  4.46 ERA  ·  1.1 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$21M
worth $30M, owed $9M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$31M
average case $+31M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE50%
50% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL4 yr
1.3 WAR a year on average
$+31M risk-adjusted × 50% confidence
= $+16M trade value
#95
OAK · P · 21y
+$15M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$25M▲+$76M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.4—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.5+$1
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.0+$6
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.3+$8
2031Arb-1$2.6M1.1+$5
2032Arb-2$4.4M1.2+$4
2033Arb-3$6.0M1.1+$2
TOT$15M6.2+$26
0.00.91.8273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AA/A+120.2 IP · 24.1% K · 10.0% BB · 5.00 ERA · 4.28 FIP
121 IP  ·  22% K  ·  9% BB  ·  4.56 ERA  ·  1.0 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$25M
worth $34M, owed $9M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$33M
average case $+33M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE45%
45% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+33M risk-adjusted × 45% confidence
= $+15M trade value
#96
LAD · P · 23y
+$15M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$20M▲+$71M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M0.9+$3
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.7+$2
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.1+$7
2030Arb-1$3.4M1.3+$6
2031Arb-2$5.4M1.4+$5
2032Arb-3$7.4M1.3+$3
TOT$19M6.7+$25
0.00.91.9273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA109.0 IP · 24.7% K · 11.2% BB · 5.12 ERA · 3.72 FIP
103 IP  ·  22% K  ·  10% BB  ·  4.25 ERA  ·  1.0 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$20M
worth $31M, owed $11M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$29M
average case $+29M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE50%
50% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL4 yr
1.3 WAR a year on average
$+29M risk-adjusted × 50% confidence
= $+15M trade value
#97
BAL · P · 25y
+$14M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$24M▲+$73M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2.1+$16
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.0+$7
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.1+$7
2030Arb-1$3.2M1.2+$5
2031Arb-2$4.4M1.0+$3
2032Arb-3$4.5M0.8+$0
TOT$14M7.2+$38
0.00.81.7273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA117.0 IP · 24.0% K · 9.2% BB · 4.08 ERA · 3.41 FIP
120 IP  ·  21% K  ·  9% BB  ·  4.25 ERA  ·  0.9 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$24M
worth $30M, owed $7M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$31M
average case $+31M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE45%
45% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
0.9 WAR a year on average
$+31M risk-adjusted × 45% confidence
= $+14M trade value
#98
TEX · P · 28y
+$14M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$7M▲+$37M
2027Arb-3$12M2.3+$6
TOT$12M2.3+$6
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB173.0 IP · 23.2% K · 9.5% BB · 4.58 ERA · 3.92 FIP · 3.5 WAR
136 IP  ·  25% K  ·  9% BB  ·  4.09 ERA  ·  2.4 WAR/yr
over 1 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$7M
worth $19M, owed $12M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$14M
average case $+14M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE100%
100% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL1 yr
2.4 WAR a year on average
$+14M risk-adjusted × 100% confidence
= $+14M trade value
#99
SEA · P · 30y
+$14M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$13M+$14M▲+$50M
2027Arb-3$16M3.1+$13
TOT$16M3.1+$13
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB186.0 IP · 27.3% K · 6.5% BB · 3.73 ERA · 3.88 FIP · 3.9 WAR
164 IP  ·  29% K  ·  6% BB  ·  3.69 ERA  ·  3.2 WAR/yr
over 1 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$14M
worth $30M, owed $16M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$14M
average case $+17M, less $3M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE100%
100% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL1 yr
3.2 WAR a year on average
$+14M risk-adjusted × 100% confidence
= $+14M trade value
#100
MIL · P · 20y
+$14M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$28M▲+$96M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.3—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.4—
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M0.9+$2
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.3+$8
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M1.5+$8
2032Arb-1$2.8M1.3+$5
2033Arb-2$4.7M1.3+$4
2034Arb-3$6.9M1.3+$3
TOT$17M7.6+$31
0.01.02.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A+113.0 IP · 19.6% K · 9.5% BB · 5.26 ERA · 4.65 FIP
118 IP  ·  22% K  ·  9% BB  ·  4.44 ERA  ·  1.3 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$28M
worth $37M, owed $9M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$40M
average case $+40M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE34%
34% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.3 WAR a year on average
$+40M risk-adjusted × 34% confidence
= $+14M trade value
#101
ATL · P · 38y
+$13M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$44M+$26M▲+$89M
2027Ext$27M4.3+$23
2028Ext$30M3.1-$1
TOT$57M7.4+$22
0.02.55.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB164.1 IP · 30.9% K · 4.8% BB · 2.14 ERA · 2.35 FIP · 7.4 WAR
109 IP  ·  31% K  ·  6% BB  ·  2.73 ERA  ·  3.8 WAR/yr
over 2 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$26M
worth $80M, owed $54M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$13M
average case $+24M, less $11M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE100%
100% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL2 yr
3.8 WAR a year on average
$+13M risk-adjusted × 100% confidence
= $+13M trade value
#102
CWS · P · 25y
+$13M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$3M+$16M▲+$40M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.4+$10
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.3+$9
2029Arb-1$2.5M1.2+$6
2030Arb-2$4.0M1.1+$4
2031Arb-3$5.0M0.9+$0
TOT$13M5.9+$30
0.00.91.8273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB84.0 IP · 31.5% K · 8.9% BB · 2.25 ERA · 2.82 FIP · 1.8 WAR
65 IP  ·  33% K  ·  8% BB  ·  3.03 ERA  ·  1.2 WAR/yr
over 5 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$16M
worth $23M, owed $6M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$17M
average case $+18M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE78%
78% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL4 yr
1.2 WAR a year on average
$+17M risk-adjusted × 78% confidence
= $+13M trade value
#103
OAK · P · 21y
+$13M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$17M▲+$75M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.9—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.8+$2
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.2+$8
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.5+$9
2031Arb-1$3.8M1.6+$7
2032Arb-2$6.4M1.7+$6
2033Arb-3$8.9M1.6+$3
TOT$22M8.4+$35
0.01.12.2273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA/AA55.1 IP · 25.2% K · 7.9% BB · 3.09 ERA · 2.92 FIP
76 IP  ·  25% K  ·  6% BB  ·  3.57 ERA  ·  1.4 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$17M
worth $29M, owed $12M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$29M
average case $+29M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE45%
45% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.5 WAR a year on average
$+29M risk-adjusted × 45% confidence
= $+13M trade value
#104
TEX · P · 20y
+$13M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$46M▲+$189M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.7—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.4—
2029MiLB$0.0M0.9—
2030MiLB$0.0M1.4—
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M1.7+$9
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M1.8+$10
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M1.9+$9
2034Arb-1$3.0M1.8+$7
2035Arb-2$5.0M1.6+$5
2036Arb-3$7.4M1.3+$2
TOT$18M10.1+$42
0.01.22.4273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A/ROK26.1 IP · 27.2% K · 7.8% BB · 2.73 ERA · 2.05 FIP
118 IP  ·  25% K  ·  9% BB  ·  4.16 ERA  ·  1.7 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$46M
worth $54M, owed $8M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$75M
average case $+75M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE17%
17% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
1.8 WAR a year on average
$+75M risk-adjusted × 17% confidence
= $+13M trade value
#105
NYM · P · 24y
+$13M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$18M▲+$60M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.8+$14
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.8+$2
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.1+$7
2030Arb-1$3.0M1.2+$5
2031Arb-2$4.4M1.1+$4
2032Arb-3$5.5M0.9+$0
TOT$15M6.9+$32
0.00.81.7273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA/AA127.1 IP · 30.8% K · 12.5% BB · 3.96 ERA · 3.21 FIP
116 IP  ·  25% K  ·  11% BB  ·  4.31 ERA  ·  0.9 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$18M
worth $24M, owed $6M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$25M
average case $+25M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE50%
50% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL4 yr
0.9 WAR a year on average
$+25M risk-adjusted × 50% confidence
= $+13M trade value
#106
SD · P · 28y
+$12M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$7M+$13M▲+$58M
2027Arb-1$4.4M2.6+$17
2028Arb-2$6.9M2.2+$10
2029Arb-3$8.9M1.9+$6
TOT$20M6.7+$33
0.01.42.7273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB70.0 IP · 47.4% K · 9.6% BB · 1.67 ERA · 1.22 FIP · 3.0 WAR
63 IP  ·  48% K  ·  9% BB  ·  1.90 ERA  ·  2.1 WAR/yr
over 3 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$13M
worth $30M, owed $18M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$19M
average case $+20M, less $2M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE66%
66% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
2.1 WAR a year on average
$+19M risk-adjusted × 66% confidence
= $+12M trade value
#107
SD · P · 20y
+$12M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$34M▲+$117M
2027MiLB$0.0M-0.3—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.1—
2029MiLB$0.0M0.6—
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.0+$6
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M1.3+$7
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M1.5+$8
2033Arb-1$3.4M1.5+$6
2034Arb-2$5.4M1.5+$4
2035Arb-3$6.9M1.3+$3
TOT$18M8.1+$34
0.01.02.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A80.0 IP · 22.3% K · 15.5% BB · 5.85 ERA · 4.00 FIP
115 IP  ·  24% K  ·  11% BB  ·  4.38 ERA  ·  1.3 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$34M
worth $43M, owed $9M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$48M
average case $+48M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE25%
25% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
1.3 WAR a year on average
$+48M risk-adjusted × 25% confidence
= $+12M trade value
#108
NYY · P · 24y
+$12M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$17M▲+$58M
2027MiLB$0.0M1.0—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.7+$2
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.0+$6
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.1+$6
2031Arb-1$2.4M1.0+$4
2032Arb-2$3.4M0.9+$0
2033Arb-3$3.5M0.6+$0
TOT$12M5.3+$19
0.00.81.6273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA65.0 IP · 29.8% K · 11.6% BB · 4.43 ERA · 4.33 FIP
103 IP  ·  27% K  ·  12% BB  ·  4.41 ERA  ·  0.9 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$17M
worth $20M, owed $3M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$24M
average case $+24M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE50%
50% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
1.0 WAR a year on average
$+24M risk-adjusted × 50% confidence
= $+12M trade value
#109
ATL · P · 25y
+$12M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$5M+$16M▲+$49M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.0+$7
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.1+$7
2029Arb-1$2.7M0.8+$1
2030Arb-2$3.6M0.7+$0
2031Arb-3$3.9M0.5+$0
TOT$12M4.1+$15
0.00.81.7273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA/AA/ROK21.2 IP · 20.3% K · 17.6% BB · 2.49 ERA · 4.30 FIP
MLB12.1 IP · 16.1% K · 17.9% BB · 7.30 ERA · 7.77 FIP
90 IP  ·  23% K  ·  12% BB  ·  4.51 ERA  ·  0.9 WAR/yr
over 5 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$16M
worth $18M, owed $2M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$18M
average case $+20M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE66%
66% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL2 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+18M risk-adjusted × 66% confidence
= $+12M trade value
#110
ATL · P · 22y
+$12M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$26M▲+$82M
2027MiLB$0.0M1.2—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.6—
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.0+$6
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.0+$6
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M1.2+$7
2032Arb-1$3.0M1.2+$5
2033Arb-2$4.4M1.1+$3
2034Arb-3$5.5M0.9+$0
TOT$15M6.4+$27
0.00.81.7273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA/AA/A+/A131.1 IP · 27.0% K · 9.1% BB · 2.95 ERA · 3.49 FIP
114 IP  ·  22% K  ·  8% BB  ·  4.34 ERA  ·  1.1 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$26M
worth $32M, owed $6M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$35M
average case $+35M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE34%
34% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+35M risk-adjusted × 34% confidence
= $+12M trade value
#111
COL · P · 27y
+$12M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$1M+$20M▲+$62M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.7+$13
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.1+$7
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M0.8+$2
2030Arb-1$2.1M0.6+$0
2031Arb-2$2.1M0.3+$0
2032Arb-3$2.1M0.1+$0
TOT$8.7M4.6+$23
0.01.12.2273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA/A+/ROK62.0 IP · 24.3% K · 8.8% BB · 3.48 ERA · 3.49 FIP
MLB29.0 IP · 25.0% K · 9.7% BB · 4.03 ERA · 5.05 FIP
102 IP  ·  20% K  ·  8% BB  ·  4.63 ERA  ·  0.8 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$20M
worth $22M, owed $2M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$26M
average case $+26M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE45%
45% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL2 yr
1.4 WAR a year on average
$+26M risk-adjusted × 45% confidence
= $+12M trade value
#112
NYY · P · 31y
+$12M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$16M▲+$60M
2027Arb-2$9.7M1.2+$0
2028Arb-3$9.7M0.2+$0
TOT$19M1.4+$0
0.01.53.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
149 IP  ·  19% K  ·  6% BB  ·  3.92 ERA  ·  1.6 WAR/yr
over 2 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$16M
worth $26M, owed $10M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$24M
average case $+24M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE47%
47% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL1 yr
2.9 WAR a year on average
$+24M risk-adjusted × 47% confidence
= $+12M trade value
#113
TOR · P · 24y
+$12M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$4M+$14M▲+$38M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.1+$8
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.2+$8
2029Arb-1$2.8M1.2+$6
2030Arb-2$4.8M1.2+$4
2031Arb-3$6.1M1.0+$2
TOT$15M5.7+$28
0.00.81.7273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA/A14.0 IP · 26.2% K · 13.1% BB · 7.07 ERA · 5.36 FIP
MLB99.1 IP · 24.2% K · 11.7% BB · 3.62 ERA · 4.25 FIP
81 IP  ·  27% K  ·  11% BB  ·  4.08 ERA  ·  1.1 WAR/yr
over 5 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$14M
worth $26M, owed $11M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$15M
average case $+16M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE78%
78% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+15M risk-adjusted × 78% confidence
= $+12M trade value
#114
ARI · P · 24y
+$12M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$16M▲+$56M
2027MiLB$0.0M1.1—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.6+$2
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.0+$6
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.0+$6
2031Arb-1$2.4M1.0+$4
2032Arb-2$3.4M0.8+$0
2033Arb-3$3.5M0.6+$0
TOT$12M5.0+$18
0.00.51.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AA/A+108.0 IP · 29.4% K · 10.0% BB · 2.83 ERA · 3.24 FIP
93 IP  ·  25% K  ·  10% BB  ·  4.34 ERA  ·  0.8 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$16M
worth $19M, owed $3M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$23M
average case $+23M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE50%
50% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
1.0 WAR a year on average
$+23M risk-adjusted × 50% confidence
= $+12M trade value
#115
TEX · P · 24y
+$11M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$25M▲+$77M
2027MiLB$0.0M1.2—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.9—
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.2+$8
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.2+$7
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M1.1+$6
2032Arb-1$2.2M1.0+$4
2033Arb-2$2.7M0.8+$1
2034Arb-3$3.0M0.5+$0
TOT$10M5.8+$25
0.00.81.7273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA/AA/A+/ROK102.0 IP · 25.2% K · 10.4% BB · 4.50 ERA · 3.90 FIP
88 IP  ·  23% K  ·  9% BB  ·  4.27 ERA  ·  1.0 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$25M
worth $28M, owed $3M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$33M
average case $+33M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE34%
34% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL4 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+33M risk-adjusted × 34% confidence
= $+11M trade value
#116
ATL · P · 22y
+$11M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$18M▲+$57M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M0.9+$3
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.6+$2
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.1+$7
2030Arb-1$2.6M1.1+$5
2031Arb-2$4.7M1.2+$4
2032Arb-3$6.5M1.1+$2
TOT$16M6.0+$23
0.00.81.7273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA/AA120.0 IP · 21.9% K · 9.2% BB · 5.40 ERA · 4.52 FIP
123 IP  ·  21% K  ·  7% BB  ·  4.55 ERA  ·  0.9 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$18M
worth $28M, owed $10M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$24M
average case $+24M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE45%
45% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL4 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+24M risk-adjusted × 45% confidence
= $+11M trade value
#117
WSH · P · 25y
+$11M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$3M+$14M▲+$34M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.0+$7
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.2+$8
2029Arb-1$2.5M1.1+$6
2030Arb-2$4.0M1.0+$3
2031Arb-3$4.5M0.7+$0
TOT$13M5.0+$24
0.00.81.7273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA4.1 IP · 23.5% K · 29.4% BB · 6.23 ERA · 4.77 FIP
MLB96.1 IP · 23.5% K · 8.5% BB · 3.27 ERA · 4.56 FIP
78 IP  ·  25% K  ·  9% BB  ·  4.15 ERA  ·  1.0 WAR/yr
over 5 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$14M
worth $20M, owed $6M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$14M
average case $+15M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE78%
78% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL4 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+14M risk-adjusted × 78% confidence
= $+11M trade value
#118
DET · P · 24y
+$11M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$3M+$15M▲+$58M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.2+$9
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.9+$3
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.0+$6
2030Arb-1$3.4M0.9+$0
2031Arb-2$4.8M0.8+$0
2032Arb-3$5.6M0.6+$0
TOT$16M5.4+$18
0.00.81.7273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA/AA/A+/ROK61.2 IP · 28.5% K · 8.5% BB · 2.04 ERA · 2.57 FIP
MLB19.0 IP · 16.3% K · 8.7% BB · 7.11 ERA · 5.52 FIP
101 IP  ·  20% K  ·  9% BB  ·  4.49 ERA  ·  0.9 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$15M
worth $16M, owed $1M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$22M
average case $+23M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE50%
50% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL2 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+22M risk-adjusted × 50% confidence
= $+11M trade value
#119
MIN · P · 23y
+$11M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$15M▲+$51M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.8—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.5+$1
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M0.9+$2
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.1+$6
2031Arb-1$2.8M1.2+$5
2032Arb-2$4.0M1.0+$3
2033Arb-3$5.0M0.9+$0
TOT$14M5.6+$18
0.00.81.7273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AA/A+/A83.0 IP · 30.6% K · 13.4% BB · 4.66 ERA · 4.29 FIP
107 IP  ·  24% K  ·  10% BB  ·  4.44 ERA  ·  0.9 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$15M
worth $20M, owed $5M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$21M
average case $+21M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE50%
50% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+21M risk-adjusted × 50% confidence
= $+11M trade value
#120
CLE · P · 28y
+$11M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$10M▲+$40M
2027Arb-1$3.8M2.1+$13
2028Arb-2$5.9M1.8+$8
2029Arb-3$7.4M1.5+$4
TOT$17M5.4+$25
0.01.22.4273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB74.0 IP · 36.3% K · 7.8% BB · 1.95 ERA · 2.23 FIP · 2.3 WAR
69 IP  ·  35% K  ·  6% BB  ·  2.44 ERA  ·  1.7 WAR/yr
over 3 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$10M
worth $25M, owed $15M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$16M
average case $+16M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE66%
66% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
1.7 WAR a year on average
$+16M risk-adjusted × 66% confidence
= $+11M trade value
#121
TEX · P · 25y
+$11M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$14M▲+$52M
2027MiLB$0.0M1.7—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.9+$3
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.1+$7
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.4+$8
2031Arb-1$3.4M1.4+$6
2032Arb-2$5.0M1.2+$4
2033Arb-3$6.0M1.0+$2
TOT$17M7.0+$29
0.00.91.9273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
76 IP  ·  28% K  ·  6% BB  ·  3.61 ERA  ·  1.2 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$14M
worth $24M, owed $10M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$21M
average case $+21M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE50%
50% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.2 WAR a year on average
$+21M risk-adjusted × 50% confidence
= $+11M trade value
#122
PHI · P · 21y
+$11M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$33M▲+$123M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.5—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.5—
2029MiLB$0.0M1.1—
2030MiLB$0.0M1.4—
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M1.6+$9
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M1.6+$8
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M1.6+$8
2034Arb-1$3.0M1.4+$5
2035Arb-2$4.0M1.2+$4
2036Arb-3$4.5M0.8+$0
TOT$14M8.2+$33
0.01.12.1273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A/ROK51.1 IP · 27.0% K · 9.5% BB · 4.03 ERA · 4.09 FIP
114 IP  ·  24% K  ·  9% BB  ·  4.30 ERA  ·  1.4 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$33M
worth $38M, owed $5M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$50M
average case $+50M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE21%
21% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.5 WAR a year on average
$+50M risk-adjusted × 21% confidence
= $+11M trade value
#123
NYY · P · 27y
+$10M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$12M+$13M▲+$43M
2027Arb-2$6.4M1.9+$9
2028Arb-3$8.7M1.6+$4
TOT$15M3.5+$13
0.01.22.4273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB138.0 IP · 25.2% K · 6.7% BB · 3.59 ERA · 3.66 FIP · 3.1 WAR
104 IP  ·  25% K  ·  7% BB  ·  3.98 ERA  ·  1.8 WAR/yr
over 2 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$13M
worth $27M, owed $14M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$12M
average case $+14M, less $3M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE90%
90% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL2 yr
1.8 WAR a year on average
$+12M risk-adjusted × 90% confidence
= $+10M trade value
#124
Joe Ryan OPT
MIN · P · 31y
+$10M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$10M+$8M▲+$42M
2027Arb-3$13M2.5+$7
2028MUT OPT·DEC$13M1.8—
TOT$13M2.5+$7
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA3.0 IP · 40.0% K · 0.0% BB · 3.00 ERA · 4.82 FIP
MLB146.1 IP · 25.9% K · 5.0% BB · 3.75 ERA · 3.74 FIP
130 IP  ·  26% K  ·  5% BB  ·  3.67 ERA  ·  2.6 WAR/yr
over 1 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$8M
worth $21M, owed $13M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$10M
average case $+13M, less $3M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE100%
100% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL1 yr
2.6 WAR a year on average
$+10M risk-adjusted × 100% confidence
= $+10M trade value
#125
ARI · P · 20y
+$10M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$39M▲+$149M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.4—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.4—
2029MiLB$0.0M1.0—
2030MiLB$0.0M1.4—
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M1.6+$9
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M1.7+$9
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M1.7+$8
2034Arb-1$3.6M1.7+$6
2035Arb-2$5.4M1.5+$4
2036Arb-3$6.5M1.2+$2
TOT$18M9.4+$39
0.01.12.2273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A+/A/ROK83.1 IP · 23.6% K · 8.2% BB · 3.24 ERA · 3.71 FIP
118 IP  ·  24% K  ·  9% BB  ·  4.20 ERA  ·  1.6 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$39M
worth $47M, owed $8M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$60M
average case $+60M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE17%
17% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
1.6 WAR a year on average
$+60M risk-adjusted × 17% confidence
= $+10M trade value
#126
STL · P · 21y
+$10M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$16M▲+$51M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.4—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.3+$0
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M0.7+$2
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.1+$6
2031Arb-1$2.6M1.0+$4
2032Arb-2$4.7M1.1+$3
2033Arb-3$6.5M1.1+$2
TOT$16M5.3+$18
0.00.81.6273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A+81.1 IP · 23.8% K · 10.2% BB · 7.08 ERA · 5.19 FIP
114 IP  ·  21% K  ·  8% BB  ·  4.50 ERA  ·  0.9 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$16M
worth $24M, owed $8M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$22M
average case $+22M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE45%
45% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL4 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+22M risk-adjusted × 45% confidence
= $+10M trade value
#127
KC · P · 29y
+$10M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$3M+$14M▲+$36M
2027Arb-1$3.2M1.5+$9
2028Arb-2$3.8M1.0+$4
2029Arb-3$3.8M0.6+$0
TOT$11M3.1+$13
0.01.12.1273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
109 IP  ·  22% K  ·  8% BB  ·  4.54 ERA  ·  1.1 WAR/yr
over 3 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$14M
worth $20M, owed $7M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$15M
average case $+16M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE65%
65% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL2 yr
1.3 WAR a year on average
$+15M risk-adjusted × 65% confidence
= $+10M trade value
#128
KC · P · 28y
+$10M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$0M+$12M▲+$31M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.6+$12
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.9+$3
2029Arb-1$1.3M0.6+$1
2030Arb-2$1.3M0.3+$0
2031Arb-3$1.3M0.1+$0
TOT$5.5M3.5+$16
0.01.12.1273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB178.0 IP · 21.2% K · 7.8% BB · 4.10 ERA · 3.97 FIP · 3.4 WAR
87 IP  ·  20% K  ·  8% BB  ·  4.59 ERA  ·  0.7 WAR/yr
over 5 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$12M
worth $13M, owed $1M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$14M
average case $+14M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE69%
69% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL1 yr
1.6 WAR a year on average
$+14M risk-adjusted × 69% confidence
= $+10M trade value
#129
HOU · P · 20y
+$10M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$41M▲+$172M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.7—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.4—
2029MiLB$0.0M1.0—
2030MiLB$0.0M1.5—
2031MiLB$0.0M1.8—
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M1.9+$10
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2.1+$10
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M2.0+$9
2035Arb-1$4.2M1.8+$6
2036Arb-2$6.0M1.6+$4
2037Arb-3$7.4M1.2+$2
TOT$20M10.6+$41
0.01.32.6273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A88.1 IP · 28.9% K · 11.0% BB · 2.75 ERA · 2.49 FIP
119 IP  ·  25% K  ·  9% BB  ·  3.91 ERA  ·  1.8 WAR/yr
over 5 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$41M
worth $49M, owed $8M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$68M
average case $+68M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE14%
14% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
1.8 WAR a year on average
$+68M risk-adjusted × 14% confidence
= $+10M trade value
#130
MIA · P · 18y
+$10M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$55M▲+$228M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.7—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.5—
2029MiLB$0.0M1.0—
2030MiLB$0.0M1.6—
2031MiLB$0.0M2.0—
2032MiLB$0.0M2.3—
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2.5+$12
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M2.6+$12
2035Pre-Arb$1.0M2.6+$11
2036Arb-1$5.6M2.5+$8
2037Arb-2$5.0M2.3+$7
2038Arb-3$7.4M1.9+$4
TOT$21M14.4+$55
0.01.53.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
126 IP  ·  27% K  ·  8% BB  ·  3.67 ERA  ·  2.4 WAR/yr
over 4 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$55M
worth $62M, owed $8M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$90M
average case $+90M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE11%
11% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
2.4 WAR a year on average
$+90M risk-adjusted × 11% confidence
= $+10M trade value
#131
SF · P · 30y
+$9M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$30M+$11M▲+$72M
2027Ext$18M3.0+$9
2028Ext$18M2.2+$0
TOT$36M5.2+$9
0.02.04.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA4.0 IP · 13.3% K · 20.0% BB · 0.00 ERA · 4.40 FIP
MLB162.1 IP · 20.1% K · 6.1% BB · 4.27 ERA · 3.50 FIP
122 IP  ·  21% K  ·  6% BB  ·  3.66 ERA  ·  2.7 WAR/yr
over 2 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$11M
worth $45M, owed $34M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$9M
average case $+17M, less $8M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE100%
100% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL2 yr
2.6 WAR a year on average
$+9M risk-adjusted × 100% confidence
= $+9M trade value
#132
SF · P · 25y
+$9M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$20M▲+$66M
2027MiLB$0.0M2.2—
2028MiLB$0.0M1.1—
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.2+$8
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.2+$7
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M1.0+$5
2032Arb-1$2.0M0.8+$1
2033Arb-2$2.0M0.5+$0
2034Arb-3$1.5M0.3+$0
TOT$8.1M5.0+$21
0.00.81.7273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA/AA136.0 IP · 23.8% K · 6.4% BB · 3.51 ERA · 3.21 FIP
105 IP  ·  20% K  ·  8% BB  ·  4.49 ERA  ·  0.8 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$20M
worth $22M, owed $2M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$28M
average case $+28M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE34%
34% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+28M risk-adjusted × 34% confidence
= $+9M trade value
#133
PIT · P · 20y
+$9M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$34M▲+$120M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.5—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.4—
2029MiLB$0.0M1.0—
2030MiLB$0.0M1.4—
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M1.6+$9
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M1.4+$7
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M1.5+$7
2034Arb-1$3.2M1.4+$5
2035Arb-2$4.7M1.3+$4
2036Arb-3$5.5M1.1+$2
TOT$16M8.3+$34
0.01.12.1273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A+/A110.1 IP · 28.9% K · 10.0% BB · 4.49 ERA · 4.26 FIP
107 IP  ·  24% K  ·  8% BB  ·  4.24 ERA  ·  1.4 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$34M
worth $41M, owed $7M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$50M
average case $+50M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE19%
19% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
1.4 WAR a year on average
$+50M risk-adjusted × 19% confidence
= $+9M trade value
#134
MIN · P · 19y
+$9M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$53M▲+$218M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.8—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.6—
2029MiLB$0.0M1.2—
2030MiLB$0.0M1.9—
2031MiLB$0.0M2.3—
2032MiLB$0.0M2.5—
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2.6+$13
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M2.7+$13
2035Pre-Arb$1.0M2.6+$11
2036Arb-1$5.2M2.3+$7
2037Arb-2$5.0M2.0+$6
2038Arb-3$7.4M1.6+$3
TOT$21M13.8+$53
0.01.53.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS ROK3.1 IP · 11.1% K · 66.7% BB · 5.40 ERA · 7.95 FIP
128 IP  ·  27% K  ·  8% BB  ·  3.65 ERA  ·  2.3 WAR/yr
over 4 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$53M
worth $61M, owed $8M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$87M
average case $+87M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE11%
11% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
2.3 WAR a year on average
$+87M risk-adjusted × 11% confidence
= $+9M trade value
#135
CWS · P · 27y
+$9M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$1M+$13M▲+$31M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.8+$14
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.1+$7
2029Arb-1$2.4M0.7+$0
2030Arb-2$2.4M0.4+$0
2031Arb-3$2.4M0.2+$0
TOT$8.8M4.2+$22
0.01.12.3273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA/A+60.1 IP · 23.5% K · 15.5% BB · 5.37 ERA · 4.48 FIP
MLB9.0 IP · 22.4% K · 18.4% BB · 10.00 ERA · 5.48 FIP
82 IP  ·  23% K  ·  11% BB  ·  4.46 ERA  ·  0.8 WAR/yr
over 5 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$13M
worth $15M, owed $2M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$14M
average case $+14M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE64%
64% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL2 yr
1.4 WAR a year on average
$+14M risk-adjusted × 64% confidence
= $+9M trade value
#136
CLE · P · 21y
+$9M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$17M▲+$55M
2027MiLB$0.0M-0.3—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.1—
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M0.5+$1
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M0.9+$2
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M1.1+$6
2032Arb-1$2.6M1.2+$5
2033Arb-2$4.4M1.2+$4
2034Arb-3$5.5M1.0+$2
TOT$15M5.9+$20
0.00.81.7273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A+/A50.0 IP · 25.0% K · 18.3% BB · 7.20 ERA · 5.25 FIP
114 IP  ·  25% K  ·  13% BB  ·  4.64 ERA  ·  1.0 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$17M
worth $24M, owed $7M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$23M
average case $+23M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE38%
38% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL4 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+23M risk-adjusted × 38% confidence
= $+9M trade value
#137
CLE · P · 27y
+$8M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$2M+$12M▲+$30M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.5+$11
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.1+$7
2029Arb-1$1.7M0.8+$1
2030Arb-2$1.8M0.4+$0
2031Arb-3$1.8M0.2+$0
TOT$6.9M4.0+$20
0.01.12.1273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB159.0 IP · 24.9% K · 11.8% BB · 3.62 ERA · 4.03 FIP · 2.9 WAR
84 IP  ·  24% K  ·  12% BB  ·  4.44 ERA  ·  0.8 WAR/yr
over 5 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$12M
worth $14M, owed $2M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$12M
average case $+13M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE68%
68% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL2 yr
1.4 WAR a year on average
$+12M risk-adjusted × 68% confidence
= $+8M trade value
#138
BAL · P · 23y
+$8M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$24M▲+$79M
2027MiLB$0.0M1.7—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.6—
2029MiLB$0.0M0.9—
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.2+$7
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M1.3+$7
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M1.2+$6
2033Arb-1$2.6M1.0+$4
2034Arb-2$3.4M0.8+$0
2035Arb-3$3.5M0.6+$0
TOT$12M6.1+$24
0.00.91.8273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AA/A+/A103.0 IP · 36.4% K · 11.3% BB · 2.01 ERA · 2.46 FIP
91 IP  ·  27% K  ·  11% BB  ·  4.14 ERA  ·  1.0 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$24M
worth $27M, owed $3M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$33M
average case $+33M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE25%
25% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL4 yr
1.2 WAR a year on average
$+33M risk-adjusted × 25% confidence
= $+8M trade value
#139
LAD · P · 27y
+$8M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$7M+$9M▲+$41M
2027Arb-1$4.2M2.0+$12
2028Arb-2$6.9M1.8+$7
2029Arb-3$8.9M1.5+$3
TOT$20M5.3+$22
0.01.32.6273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA18.0 IP · 34.8% K · 10.1% BB · 1.50 ERA · 1.65 FIP
MLB113.0 IP · 28.0% K · 7.0% BB · 4.54 ERA · 4.32 FIP
98 IP  ·  29% K  ·  7% BB  ·  3.76 ERA  ·  1.8 WAR/yr
over 3 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$9M
worth $26M, owed $18M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$12M
average case $+14M, less $2M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE67%
67% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
1.8 WAR a year on average
$+12M risk-adjusted × 67% confidence
= $+8M trade value
#140
TEX · P · 19y
+$8M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$50M▲+$178M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.3—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.2—
2029MiLB$0.0M0.7—
2030MiLB$0.0M1.4—
2031MiLB$0.0M1.9—
2032MiLB$0.0M2.3—
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2.5+$12
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M2.6+$12
2035Pre-Arb$1.0M2.5+$10
2036Arb-1$3.0M2.3+$8
2037Arb-2$5.0M0.0+$0
2038Arb-3$7.4M0.0+$0
TOT$18M9.9+$43
0.01.53.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS ROK16.0 IP · 40.0% K · 17.3% BB · 3.94 ERA · 3.40 FIP
129 IP  ·  30% K  ·  10% BB  ·  3.74 ERA  ·  2.5 WAR/yr
over 4 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$50M
worth $53M, owed $2M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$74M
average case $+74M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE11%
11% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL4 yr
2.7 WAR a year on average
$+74M risk-adjusted × 11% confidence
= $+8M trade value
#141
LAD · P · 27y
+$8M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$3M+$12M▲+$28M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.4+$10
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.1+$7
2029Arb-1$1.9M0.8+$1
2030Arb-2$2.2M0.5+$0
2031Arb-3$2.2M0.3+$0
TOT$7.9M4.1+$19
0.01.02.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA2.0 IP · 28.6% K · 0.0% BB · 4.50 ERA · 1.15 FIP
MLB140.0 IP · 20.4% K · 5.4% BB · 3.66 ERA · 4.19 FIP
79 IP  ·  20% K  ·  6% BB  ·  4.44 ERA  ·  0.8 WAR/yr
over 5 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$12M
worth $13M, owed $2M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$12M
average case $+12M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE67%
67% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL2 yr
1.3 WAR a year on average
$+12M risk-adjusted × 67% confidence
= $+8M trade value
#142
MIA · P · 21y
+$8M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$29M▲+$97M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.7—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.6—
2029MiLB$0.0M1.1—
2030MiLB$0.0M1.4—
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M1.4+$8
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M1.4+$7
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M1.4+$7
2034Arb-1$2.8M1.2+$4
2035Arb-2$3.7M1.0+$3
2036Arb-3$4.0M0.8+$0
TOT$13M7.2+$29
0.00.91.9273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A+/A111.0 IP · 31.6% K · 10.1% BB · 3.49 ERA · 3.64 FIP
100 IP  ·  26% K  ·  10% BB  ·  4.29 ERA  ·  1.2 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$29M
worth $33M, owed $4M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$41M
average case $+41M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE19%
19% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.3 WAR a year on average
$+41M risk-adjusted × 19% confidence
= $+8M trade value
#143
TB · P · 29y
+$8M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$4M+$9M▲+$24M
2027Arb-2$4.4M1.1+$4
2028Arb-3$5.6M1.1+$3
TOT$10M2.2+$8
0.00.91.8273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
111 IP  ·  25% K  ·  9% BB  ·  4.27 ERA  ·  1.2 WAR/yr
over 2 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$9M
worth $19M, owed $9M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$8M
average case $+10M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE88%
88% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL2 yr
1.2 WAR a year on average
$+8M risk-adjusted × 88% confidence
= $+8M trade value
#144
MIL · P · 25y
+$8M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$8M+$10M▲+$30M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.2+$9
2028Arb-1$2.9M1.3+$7
2029Arb-2$4.6M1.2+$5
2030Arb-3$6.5M1.1+$2
TOT$15M4.8+$23
0.00.91.8273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A+7.1 IP · 26.3% K · 15.8% BB · 0.00 ERA · 3.01 FIP
MLB117.1 IP · 27.9% K · 7.1% BB · 4.14 ERA · 4.06 FIP
86 IP  ·  26% K  ·  8% BB  ·  4.17 ERA  ·  1.2 WAR/yr
over 4 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$10M
worth $22M, owed $12M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$9M
average case $+11M, less $2M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE86%
86% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL4 yr
1.2 WAR a year on average
$+9M risk-adjusted × 86% confidence
= $+8M trade value
#145
NYM · P · 28y
+$7M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$3M+$11M▲+$30M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.4+$10
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.1+$7
2029Arb-1$1.7M0.8+$1
2030Arb-2$1.8M0.5+$0
2031Arb-3$2.8M0.5+$0
TOT$7.9M4.3+$20
0.00.91.9273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA15.1 IP · 29.3% K · 3.4% BB · 4.70 ERA · 4.26 FIP
MLB110.0 IP · 28.3% K · 9.9% BB · 3.85 ERA · 3.66 FIP
75 IP  ·  25% K  ·  9% BB  ·  4.33 ERA  ·  0.9 WAR/yr
over 5 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$11M
worth $13M, owed $2M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$12M
average case $+12M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE64%
64% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL2 yr
1.2 WAR a year on average
$+12M risk-adjusted × 64% confidence
= $+7M trade value
#146
OAK · P · 21y
+$7M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$18M▲+$59M
2027MiLB$0.0M-0.5—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.1—
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M0.5+$1
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M0.9+$2
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M1.2+$7
2032Arb-1$2.8M1.3+$5
2033Arb-2$4.4M1.2+$4
2034Arb-3$6.0M1.0+$2
TOT$16M6.1+$21
0.00.91.8273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A+/ROK47.1 IP · 19.8% K · 20.7% BB · 8.75 ERA · 5.83 FIP
114 IP  ·  25% K  ·  13% BB  ·  4.63 ERA  ·  1.0 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$18M
worth $25M, owed $7M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$25M
average case $+25M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE30%
30% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL4 yr
1.2 WAR a year on average
$+25M risk-adjusted × 30% confidence
= $+7M trade value
#147
MIA · P · 20y
+$7M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$37M▲+$147M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.3—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.2—
2029MiLB$0.0M0.8—
2030MiLB$0.0M1.3—
2031MiLB$0.0M1.6—
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M1.8+$9
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M1.9+$9
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M1.8+$8
2035Arb-1$3.4M1.6+$6
2036Arb-2$4.7M1.3+$3
2037Arb-3$7.4M1.0+$1
TOT$18M9.4+$37
0.01.22.4273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A/ROK38.0 IP · 17.4% K · 9.3% BB · 4.50 ERA · 4.60 FIP
118 IP  ·  25% K  ·  9% BB  ·  4.14 ERA  ·  1.6 WAR/yr
over 5 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$37M
worth $44M, owed $7M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$59M
average case $+59M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE13%
13% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
1.6 WAR a year on average
$+59M risk-adjusted × 13% confidence
= $+7M trade value
#148
CJ Gray
LAA · P · 20y
+$7M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$34M▲+$130M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.5—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.2—
2029MiLB$0.0M0.7—
2030MiLB$0.0M1.1—
2031MiLB$0.0M1.4—
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M1.6+$8
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M1.7+$8
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M1.7+$8
2035Arb-1$3.4M1.5+$5
2036Arb-2$4.7M1.3+$3
2037Arb-3$7.4M1.0+$1
TOT$18M8.8+$34
0.01.12.2273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A/ROK35.0 IP · 28.1% K · 13.1% BB · 5.14 ERA · 3.64 FIP
118 IP  ·  26% K  ·  10% BB  ·  4.14 ERA  ·  1.5 WAR/yr
over 5 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$34M
worth $41M, owed $7M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$52M
average case $+52M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE14%
14% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
1.5 WAR a year on average
$+52M risk-adjusted × 14% confidence
= $+7M trade value
#149
STL · P · 24y
+$7M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$6M▲+$38M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.9—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.6+$2
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M0.9+$2
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.0+$6
2031Arb-1$2.2M0.9+$1
2032Arb-2$2.7M0.7+$0
2033Arb-3$3.0M0.5+$0
TOT$10M4.6+$11
0.00.51.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA/AA135.1 IP · 27.8% K · 11.5% BB · 4.79 ERA · 4.00 FIP
105 IP  ·  24% K  ·  11% BB  ·  4.55 ERA  ·  0.8 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$6M
worth $6M, owed $1M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$14M
average case $+14M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE50%
50% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL1 yr
1.0 WAR a year on average
$+14M risk-adjusted × 50% confidence
= $+7M trade value
#150
TOR · P · 23y
+$7M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$11M▲+$50M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.4—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.4—
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M0.8+$2
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.0+$6
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M1.0+$5
2032Arb-1$2.0M0.9+$1
2033Arb-2$2.7M0.7+$0
2034Arb-3$2.5M0.5+$0
TOT$9.7M4.9+$15
0.00.51.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA/AA102.1 IP · 30.7% K · 14.5% BB · 4.75 ERA · 4.27 FIP
106 IP  ·  26% K  ·  13% BB  ·  4.60 ERA  ·  0.8 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$11M
worth $12M, owed $1M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$20M
average case $+20M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE34%
34% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL2 yr
1.0 WAR a year on average
$+20M risk-adjusted × 34% confidence
= $+7M trade value
#151
CWS · P · 24y
+$6M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$6M▲+$40M
2027MiLB$0.0M1.4—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.6+$2
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M0.9+$2
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.0+$6
2031Arb-1$2.2M0.9+$1
2032Arb-2$3.0M0.8+$0
2033Arb-3$3.0M0.6+$0
TOT$11M4.8+$11
0.00.51.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
95 IP  ·  22% K  ·  9% BB  ·  4.41 ERA  ·  0.8 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$6M
worth $6M, owed $1M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$14M
average case $+14M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE45%
45% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL1 yr
1.0 WAR a year on average
$+14M risk-adjusted × 45% confidence
= $+6M trade value
#152
MIL · P · 28y
+$6M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$3M+$11M▲+$25M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.3+$10
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.0+$7
2029Arb-1$1.7M0.7+$1
2030Arb-2$1.8M0.4+$0
2031Arb-3$2.8M0.4+$0
TOT$7.9M3.8+$17
0.00.91.9273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA28.1 IP · 33.3% K · 7.0% BB · 3.18 ERA · 1.77 FIP
MLB110.0 IP · 22.2% K · 7.6% BB · 3.85 ERA · 4.28 FIP
66 IP  ·  21% K  ·  7% BB  ·  4.25 ERA  ·  0.8 WAR/yr
over 5 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$11M
worth $12M, owed $2M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$10M
average case $+11M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE63%
63% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL2 yr
1.2 WAR a year on average
$+10M risk-adjusted × 63% confidence
= $+6M trade value
#153
ARI · P · 24y
+$6M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$6M▲+$40M
2027MiLB$0.0M1.5—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.6+$2
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M0.9+$2
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.0+$6
2031Arb-1$2.2M0.9+$1
2032Arb-2$3.0M0.8+$0
2033Arb-3$3.0M0.6+$0
TOT$11M4.8+$11
0.00.51.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
108 IP  ·  20% K  ·  8% BB  ·  4.50 ERA  ·  0.8 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$6M
worth $6M, owed $1M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$14M
average case $+14M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE44%
44% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL1 yr
1.0 WAR a year on average
$+14M risk-adjusted × 44% confidence
= $+6M trade value
#154
ATL · P · 22y
+$6M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$4M+$9M▲+$27M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M0.8+$2
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.0+$7
2029Arb-1$2.3M1.1+$6
2030Arb-2$4.4M1.1+$4
2031Arb-3$6.7M1.2+$3
TOT$15M5.2+$21
0.00.81.7273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA18.1 IP · 31.7% K · 9.5% BB · 1.96 ERA · 3.15 FIP
MLB74.0 IP · 31.0% K · 7.1% BB · 2.43 ERA · 2.65 FIP
78 IP  ·  29% K  ·  6% BB  ·  3.51 ERA  ·  1.0 WAR/yr
over 5 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$9M
worth $19M, owed $10M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$9M
average case $+10M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE69%
69% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL4 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+9M risk-adjusted × 69% confidence
= $+6M trade value
#155
MIA · P · 22y
+$6M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$24M▲+$80M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.4—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.4—
2029MiLB$0.0M0.9—
2030MiLB$0.0M1.2—
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M1.4+$8
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M1.3+$7
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M1.2+$6
2034Arb-1$2.2M1.0+$4
2035Arb-2$2.4M0.7+$1
2036Arb-3$2.0M0.4+$0
TOT$9.2M6.0+$24
0.00.91.9273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A+103.0 IP · 33.0% K · 12.9% BB · 5.16 ERA · 3.79 FIP
110 IP  ·  25% K  ·  11% BB  ·  4.53 ERA  ·  1.0 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$24M
worth $26M, owed $3M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$33M
average case $+33M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE19%
19% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL4 yr
1.2 WAR a year on average
$+33M risk-adjusted × 19% confidence
= $+6M trade value
#156
STL · P · 27y
+$6M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$4M+$6M▲+$20M
2027Arb-1$2.0M1.0+$6
2028Arb-2$2.4M0.7+$0
2029Arb-3$2.4M0.4+$0
TOT$6.8M2.1+$6
0.00.51.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB155.0 IP · 22.8% K · 8.2% BB · 5.23 ERA · 4.67 FIP · 1.6 WAR
102 IP  ·  21% K  ·  8% BB  ·  4.78 ERA  ·  0.7 WAR/yr
over 3 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$6M
worth $8M, owed $2M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$6M
average case $+7M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE93%
93% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL1 yr
1.0 WAR a year on average
$+6M risk-adjusted × 93% confidence
= $+6M trade value
#157
BOS · P · 21y
+$6M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$23M▲+$80M
2027MiLB$0.0M-0.3—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.1—
2029MiLB$0.0M0.5—
2030MiLB$0.0M0.9—
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M1.2+$7
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M1.3+$7
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M1.2+$6
2034Arb-1$2.2M1.1+$4
2035Arb-2$3.0M0.9+$1
2036Arb-3$3.0M0.6+$0
TOT$11M6.3+$24
0.00.91.8273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A/ROK47.1 IP · 21.0% K · 15.5% BB · 7.80 ERA · 3.61 FIP
107 IP  ·  23% K  ·  12% BB  ·  4.52 ERA  ·  1.1 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$23M
worth $26M, owed $3M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$33M
average case $+33M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE17%
17% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL4 yr
1.2 WAR a year on average
$+33M risk-adjusted × 17% confidence
= $+6M trade value
#158
BAL · P · 21y
+$6M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$12M▲+$39M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.6—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.4—
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M0.8+$2
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.0+$6
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M1.1+$6
2032Arb-1$2.6M1.1+$4
2033Arb-2$4.0M1.1+$3
2034Arb-3$5.5M1.0+$2
TOT$15M6.1+$24
0.00.81.6273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A+87.0 IP · 31.6% K · 13.0% BB · 3.62 ERA · 3.07 FIP
68 IP  ·  25% K  ·  10% BB  ·  4.01 ERA  ·  1.0 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$12M
worth $19M, owed $8M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$16M
average case $+16M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE34%
34% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+16M risk-adjusted × 34% confidence
= $+6M trade value
#159
STL · P · 25y
+$5M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$6M▲+$33M
2027MiLB$0.0M1.6—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.8+$2
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M0.9+$2
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.0+$6
2031Arb-1$2.2M0.9+$1
2032Arb-2$2.4M0.6+$0
2033Arb-3$2.5M0.4+$0
TOT$9.5M4.6+$12
0.00.51.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A/ROK9.0 IP · 24.3% K · 0.0% BB · 6.00 ERA · 2.59 FIP
114 IP  ·  21% K  ·  8% BB  ·  4.53 ERA  ·  0.8 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$6M
worth $6M, owed $1M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$12M
average case $+12M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE44%
44% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL1 yr
1.0 WAR a year on average
$+12M risk-adjusted × 44% confidence
= $+5M trade value
#160
SF · P · 28y
+$5M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$1M+$7M▲+$19M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.4+$10
2028Arb-1$1.9M0.8+$1
2029Arb-2$1.9M0.5+$0
2030Arb-3$1.9M0.2+$0
TOT$6.5M2.9+$12
0.01.02.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB155.0 IP · 21.8% K · 11.4% BB · 4.01 ERA · 3.78 FIP · 3.3 WAR
73 IP  ·  20% K  ·  11% BB  ·  4.42 ERA  ·  0.8 WAR/yr
over 4 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$7M
worth $8M, owed $1M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$8M
average case $+8M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE69%
69% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL1 yr
1.5 WAR a year on average
$+8M risk-adjusted × 69% confidence
= $+5M trade value
#161
BAL · P · 20y
+$5M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$27M▲+$92M
2027MiLB$0.0M-0.4—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.0—
2029MiLB$0.0M0.4—
2030MiLB$0.0M0.9—
2031MiLB$0.0M1.2—
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M1.4+$7
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M1.4+$7
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M1.4+$6
2035Arb-1$2.6M1.2+$4
2036Arb-2$3.7M1.0+$3
2037Arb-3$7.4M0.7+$0
TOT$17M7.1+$27
0.00.91.9273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A53.0 IP · 21.4% K · 25.4% BB · 9.68 ERA · 6.21 FIP
111 IP  ·  25% K  ·  12% BB  ·  4.38 ERA  ·  1.2 WAR/yr
over 5 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$27M
worth $31M, owed $4M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$38M
average case $+38M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE14%
14% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.3 WAR a year on average
$+38M risk-adjusted × 14% confidence
= $+5M trade value
#162
MIA · P · 24y
+$5M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$17M▲+$44M
2027MiLB$0.0M2.4—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.6—
2029MiLB$0.0M1.0—
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.1+$6
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M1.1+$6
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M1.0+$5
2033Arb-1$0.4M0.8+$2
2034Arb-2$5.0M0.0+$0
2035Arb-3$7.4M0.0+$0
TOT$16M4.0+$19
0.00.81.6273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AA/A+110.0 IP · 29.1% K · 5.7% BB · 1.72 ERA · 2.51 FIP
87 IP  ·  22% K  ·  7% BB  ·  4.02 ERA  ·  1.0 WAR/yr
over 4 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$17M
worth $19M, owed $2M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$20M
average case $+20M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE25%
25% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+20M risk-adjusted × 25% confidence
= $+5M trade value
#163
DET · P · 26y
+$5M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$1M+$5M▲+$16M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.1+$8
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.9+$3
2029Arb-1$1.7M0.8+$1
2030Arb-2$2.2M0.5+$0
2031Arb-3$2.2M0.3+$0
TOT$7.7M3.6+$12
0.00.81.7273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA/A13.1 IP · 35.6% K · 4.4% BB · 1.35 ERA · 1.43 FIP
MLB115.0 IP · 20.0% K · 7.9% BB · 2.74 ERA · 4.13 FIP
72 IP  ·  22% K  ·  8% BB  ·  4.39 ERA  ·  0.7 WAR/yr
over 5 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$5M
worth $6M, owed $1M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$6M
average case $+6M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE80%
80% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL1 yr
1.2 WAR a year on average
$+6M risk-adjusted × 80% confidence
= $+5M trade value
#164
MIL · P · 28y
+$5M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$5M+$12M▲+$20M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.5+$11
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.1+$7
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M0.7+$2
2030Arb-1$1.1M0.4+$0
2031Arb-2$1.1M0.2+$0
2032Arb-3$9.2M0.0+$0
TOT$14M3.9+$21
0.01.12.1273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA15.1 IP · 27.0% K · 11.1% BB · 2.93 ERA · 4.39 FIP
MLB126.1 IP · 23.7% K · 8.3% BB · 4.13 ERA · 3.78 FIP
75 IP  ·  23% K  ·  10% BB  ·  4.43 ERA  ·  0.8 WAR/yr
over 5 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$12M
worth $14M, owed $2M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$8M
average case $+9M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE63%
63% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL2 yr
1.4 WAR a year on average
$+8M risk-adjusted × 63% confidence
= $+5M trade value
#165
CWS · P · 30y
+$5M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$4M+$6M▲+$16M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.3+$10
2028Arb-1$1.6M0.8+$2
2029Arb-2$1.6M0.4+$0
2030Arb-3$1.6M0.1+$0
TOT$5.6M2.6+$11
0.00.91.8273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA5.0 IP · 31.2% K · 6.2% BB · 0.00 ERA · 1.75 FIP
MLB146.0 IP · 19.8% K · 7.5% BB · 3.95 ERA · 3.88 FIP
68 IP  ·  18% K  ·  8% BB  ·  4.58 ERA  ·  0.7 WAR/yr
over 4 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$6M
worth $7M, owed $1M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$5M
average case $+6M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE90%
90% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL1 yr
1.3 WAR a year on average
$+5M risk-adjusted × 90% confidence
= $+5M trade value
#166
TEX · P · 25y
+$5M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$7M▲+$25M
2027MiLB$0.0M1.1—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M1.0+$7
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M0.9+$2
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M0.8+$2
2031Arb-1$1.4M0.6+$1
2032Arb-2$1.3M0.4+$0
2033Arb-3$1.0M0.2+$0
TOT$6.2M3.9+$12
0.00.51.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA/AA84.0 IP · 26.8% K · 10.2% BB · 6.75 ERA · 4.85 FIP
MLB2.0 IP · 11.1% K · 11.1% BB · 9.00 ERA · 10.15 FIP
101 IP  ·  23% K  ·  10% BB  ·  4.74 ERA  ·  0.7 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$7M
worth $7M, owed $1M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$10M
average case $+10M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE47%
47% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL1 yr
1.0 WAR a year on average
$+10M risk-adjusted × 47% confidence
= $+5M trade value
#167
HOU · P · 30y
+$5M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$8M+$7M▲+$23M
2027Arb-1$3.4M1.7+$10
2028Arb-2$3.7M1.1+$5
2029Arb-3$3.7M0.6+$0
TOT$11M3.4+$15
0.01.12.2273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA16.1 IP · 20.3% K · 5.1% BB · 1.65 ERA · 3.39 FIP
MLB157.1 IP · 23.2% K · 8.9% BB · 3.78 ERA · 3.95 FIP
95 IP  ·  22% K  ·  9% BB  ·  4.36 ERA  ·  1.1 WAR/yr
over 3 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$7M
worth $14M, owed $7M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$5M
average case $+7M, less $2M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE89%
89% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL2 yr
1.4 WAR a year on average
$+5M risk-adjusted × 89% confidence
= $+5M trade value
#168
WSH · P · 23y
+$5M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$10M▲+$35M
2027MiLB$0.0M1.1—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.6—
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M0.9+$2
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.1+$6
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M1.1+$6
2032Arb-1$2.2M1.0+$4
2033Arb-2$3.0M0.8+$0
2034Arb-3$3.5M0.6+$0
TOT$11M5.5+$19
0.00.81.6273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA/AA/A+/A123.2 IP · 22.6% K · 7.2% BB · 2.91 ERA · 3.08 FIP
78 IP  ·  21% K  ·  8% BB  ·  4.19 ERA  ·  0.9 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$10M
worth $12M, owed $2M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$14M
average case $+14M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE33%
33% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+14M risk-adjusted × 33% confidence
= $+5M trade value
#169
DET · P · 21y
+$5M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$22M▲+$79M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.4—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.3—
2029MiLB$0.0M0.8—
2030MiLB$0.0M1.1—
2031MiLB$0.0M1.3—
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M1.4+$7
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M1.4+$7
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M1.2+$5
2035Arb-1$2.4M1.0+$3
2036Arb-2$2.7M0.8+$1
2037Arb-3$7.4M0.5+$0
TOT$15M6.3+$23
0.00.91.9273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A/ROK54.0 IP · 23.4% K · 9.8% BB · 6.17 ERA · 3.87 FIP
110 IP  ·  23% K  ·  9% BB  ·  4.35 ERA  ·  1.1 WAR/yr
over 5 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$22M
worth $25M, owed $2M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$33M
average case $+33M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE14%
14% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL4 yr
1.2 WAR a year on average
$+33M risk-adjusted × 14% confidence
= $+5M trade value
#170
PIT · P · 27y
+$4M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$3M+$7M▲+$21M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.1+$8
2028Arb-1$2.9M1.0+$5
2029Arb-2$4.0M0.8+$0
2030Arb-3$4.6M0.6+$0
TOT$12M3.5+$13
0.00.81.6273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB70.1 IP · 37.8% K · 9.4% BB · 2.82 ERA · 2.42 FIP · 1.9 WAR
64 IP  ·  36% K  ·  10% BB  ·  3.46 ERA  ·  0.9 WAR/yr
over 4 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$7M
worth $10M, owed $3M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$7M
average case $+8M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE63%
63% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL2 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+7M risk-adjusted × 63% confidence
= $+4M trade value
#171
MIA · P · 21y
+$4M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$24M▲+$87M
2027MiLB$0.0M1.2—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.8—
2029MiLB$0.0M1.3—
2030MiLB$0.0M1.6—
2031MiLB$0.0M1.4—
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M1.5+$8
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M1.4+$7
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M1.3+$6
2035Arb-1$2.4M1.1+$4
2036Arb-2$3.0M0.8+$0
2037Arb-3$7.4M0.6+$0
TOT$16M6.7+$24
0.01.02.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A108.0 IP · 25.2% K · 7.2% BB · 3.67 ERA · 3.18 FIP
92 IP  ·  22% K  ·  8% BB  ·  4.17 ERA  ·  1.1 WAR/yr
over 5 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$24M
worth $26M, owed $2M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$36M
average case $+36M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE13%
13% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL4 yr
1.3 WAR a year on average
$+36M risk-adjusted × 13% confidence
= $+4M trade value
#172
COL · P · 20y
+$4M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$30M▲+$120M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.6—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.4—
2029MiLB$0.0M0.9—
2030MiLB$0.0M1.5—
2031MiLB$0.0M1.7—
2032MiLB$0.0M1.8—
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M1.9+$9
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M1.8+$8
2035Pre-Arb$1.0M1.6+$7
2036Arb-1$2.8M1.3+$4
2037Arb-2$5.0M1.0+$2
2038Arb-3$7.4M0.7+$0
TOT$18M8.3+$30
0.01.22.4273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS ROK1.0 IP · 0.0% K · 25.0% BB · 0.00 ERA · 6.15 FIP
117 IP  ·  25% K  ·  9% BB  ·  4.12 ERA  ·  1.4 WAR/yr
over 4 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$30M
worth $34M, owed $4M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$48M
average case $+48M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE9%
9% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.5 WAR a year on average
$+48M risk-adjusted × 9% confidence
= $+4M trade value
#173
MIA · P · 20y
+$4M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$30M▲+$120M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.6—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.4—
2029MiLB$0.0M0.9—
2030MiLB$0.0M1.4—
2031MiLB$0.0M1.7—
2032MiLB$0.0M1.8—
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M1.9+$9
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M1.8+$8
2035Pre-Arb$1.0M1.6+$7
2036Arb-1$2.8M1.3+$4
2037Arb-2$5.0M1.0+$2
2038Arb-3$7.4M0.7+$0
TOT$18M8.3+$30
0.01.22.4273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
117 IP  ·  25% K  ·  9% BB  ·  4.12 ERA  ·  1.4 WAR/yr
over 4 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$30M
worth $34M, owed $4M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$48M
average case $+48M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE9%
9% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.5 WAR a year on average
$+48M risk-adjusted × 9% confidence
= $+4M trade value
#174
NYY · P · 28y
+$4M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$2M+$7M▲+$26M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.5+$11
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.9+$3
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M0.7+$2
2030Arb-1$2.8M0.8+$1
2031Arb-2$3.2M0.5+$0
2032Arb-3$3.2M0.3+$0
TOT$12M4.7+$16
0.01.02.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA136.0 IP · 28.0% K · 7.4% BB · 2.91 ERA · 2.81 FIP
MLB14.1 IP · 22.4% K · 13.8% BB · 8.79 ERA · 8.45 FIP
72 IP  ·  21% K  ·  6% BB  ·  4.37 ERA  ·  0.8 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$7M
worth $8M, owed $1M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$10M
average case $+10M, less $0M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE45%
45% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL1 yr
1.5 WAR a year on average
$+10M risk-adjusted × 45% confidence
= $+4M trade value
#175
TB · P · 21y
+$4M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$15M▲+$57M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.2—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.4—
2029MiLB$0.0M0.8—
2030MiLB$0.0M1.0—
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M1.0+$5
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M1.0+$5
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M1.0+$5
2034Arb-1$1.8M0.8+$1
2035Arb-2$2.4M0.7+$1
2036Arb-3$2.5M0.4+$0
TOT$9.3M4.9+$16
0.00.51.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A+99.1 IP · 29.3% K · 10.6% BB · 4.89 ERA · 4.86 FIP
93 IP  ·  24% K  ·  10% BB  ·  4.58 ERA  ·  0.8 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$15M
worth $16M, owed $2M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$23M
average case $+23M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE19%
19% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
1.0 WAR a year on average
$+23M risk-adjusted × 19% confidence
= $+4M trade value
#176
DET · P · 27y
+$4M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$4M▲+$12M
2027Arb-1$2.2M1.1+$7
2028Arb-2$2.8M0.7+$0
2029Arb-3$2.8M0.4+$0
TOT$7.8M2.2+$7
0.00.81.6273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA4.0 IP · 21.4% K · 7.1% BB · 0.00 ERA · 3.15 FIP
MLB155.0 IP · 17.1% K · 5.9% BB · 3.48 ERA · 4.03 FIP
91 IP  ·  18% K  ·  7% BB  ·  4.57 ERA  ·  0.7 WAR/yr
over 3 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$4M
worth $6M, owed $2M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$5M
average case $+5M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE87%
87% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL1 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+5M risk-adjusted × 87% confidence
= $+4M trade value
#177
BAL · P · 25y
+$4M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$13M▲+$41M
2027MiLB$0.0M2.2—
2028MiLB$0.0M1.0—
2029MiLB$0.0M1.2—
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.2+$7
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M1.1+$6
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M0.8+$2
2033Arb-1$1.4M0.6+$1
2034Arb-2$1.3M0.3+$0
2035Arb-3$0.6M0.1+$0
TOT$6.0M4.1+$15
0.00.81.7273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
93 IP  ·  23% K  ·  9% BB  ·  4.58 ERA  ·  0.7 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$13M
worth $14M, owed $1M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$18M
average case $+18M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE25%
25% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL2 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+18M risk-adjusted × 25% confidence
= $+4M trade value
#178
NYM · P · 25y
+$4M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$2M▲+$27M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.3+$10
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.8+$2
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M0.8+$2
2030Arb-1$2.2M0.8+$1
2031Arb-2$2.7M0.7+$0
2032Arb-3$2.5M0.5+$0
TOT$9.8M4.9+$15
0.00.51.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA115.0 IP · 24.1% K · 13.3% BB · 4.54 ERA · 4.83 FIP
130 IP  ·  22% K  ·  10% BB  ·  4.67 ERA  ·  0.6 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$2M
worth $2M, owed $0M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$9M
average case $+9M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE50%
50% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL1 yr
0.2 WAR a year on average
$+9M risk-adjusted × 50% confidence
= $+4M trade value
#179
CHC · P · 27y
+$4M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$6M+$5M▲+$26M
2027Arb-1$2.2M0.9+$1
2028Arb-2$4.6M1.5+$7
2029Arb-3$7.0M1.3+$3
2030Arb-4$8.3M1.0+$0
TOT$22M4.7+$12
0.01.02.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB68.0 IP · 24.5% K · 7.2% BB · 1.85 ERA · 2.55 FIP · 1.8 WAR
66 IP  ·  26% K  ·  7% BB  ·  3.83 ERA  ·  1.2 WAR/yr
over 4 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$5M
worth $23M, owed $18M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$6M
average case $+8M, less $2M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE66%
66% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL4 yr
1.2 WAR a year on average
$+6M risk-adjusted × 66% confidence
= $+4M trade value
#180
ATL · P · 27y
+$4M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$12M▲+$37M
2027MiLB$0.0M2.8—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.9—
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.0+$6
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.0+$6
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M0.8+$2
2032Arb-1$1.4M0.6+$1
2033Arb-2$1.3M0.3+$0
2034Arb-3$0.6M0.1+$0
TOT$5.9M3.8+$15
0.00.51.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA/AA/ROK127.2 IP · 31.0% K · 6.1% BB · 2.82 ERA · 2.77 FIP
88 IP  ·  22% K  ·  8% BB  ·  4.48 ERA  ·  0.6 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$12M
worth $13M, owed $1M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$16M
average case $+16M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE26%
26% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL2 yr
1.0 WAR a year on average
$+16M risk-adjusted × 26% confidence
= $+4M trade value
#181
SF · P · 27y
+$4M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$3M+$3M▲+$23M
2027Arb-1$1.3M0.9+$2
2028Arb-2$2.5M1.1+$6
2029Arb-3$3.2M0.9+$1
2030Arb-4$3.8M0.7+$0
TOT$11M3.6+$9
0.00.81.6273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
60 IP  ·  31% K  ·  6% BB  ·  3.19 ERA  ·  0.9 WAR/yr
over 4 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$3M
worth $5M, owed $2M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$6M
average case $+7M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE61%
61% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL1 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+6M risk-adjusted × 61% confidence
= $+4M trade value
#182
MIA · P · 19y
+$4M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$25M▲+$93M
2027MiLB$0.0M-0.2—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.0—
2029MiLB$0.0M0.2—
2030MiLB$0.0M0.7—
2031MiLB$0.0M1.0—
2032MiLB$0.0M1.3—
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M1.4+$7
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M1.5+$7
2035Pre-Arb$1.0M1.4+$6
2036Arb-1$2.8M1.3+$4
2037Arb-2$5.0M1.0+$2
2038Arb-3$7.4M0.8+$0
TOT$18M7.4+$25
0.01.02.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS ROK28.0 IP · 23.5% K · 30.9% BB · 10.93 ERA · 7.08 FIP
113 IP  ·  26% K  ·  11% BB  ·  4.27 ERA  ·  1.2 WAR/yr
over 4 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$25M
worth $29M, owed $4M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$38M
average case $+38M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE11%
11% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.3 WAR a year on average
$+38M risk-adjusted × 11% confidence
= $+4M trade value
#183
NYY · P · 23y
+$4M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$7M▲+$31M
2027MiLB$0.0M1.0—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.5—
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M0.8+$2
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M1.0+$6
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M1.0+$5
2032Arb-1$2.0M0.9+$1
2033Arb-2$2.7M0.7+$0
2034Arb-3$3.0M0.5+$0
TOT$10M4.9+$15
0.00.51.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AA/A+132.1 IP · 23.7% K · 6.1% BB · 4.28 ERA · 3.41 FIP
83 IP  ·  20% K  ·  7% BB  ·  4.38 ERA  ·  0.8 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$7M
worth $8M, owed $1M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$12M
average case $+12M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE34%
34% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL2 yr
1.0 WAR a year on average
$+12M risk-adjusted × 34% confidence
= $+4M trade value
#184
WSH · P · 20y
+$4M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$15M▲+$51M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.3—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.3—
2029MiLB$0.0M0.6—
2030MiLB$0.0M0.9—
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M1.1+$6
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M1.2+$6
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M1.2+$6
2034Arb-1$2.6M1.2+$4
2035Arb-2$4.0M1.1+$3
2036Arb-3$5.0M0.9+$0
TOT$14M6.7+$25
0.00.81.7273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A+/A73.0 IP · 41.3% K · 20.3% BB · 2.96 ERA · 2.75 FIP
64 IP  ·  32% K  ·  13% BB  ·  3.87 ERA  ·  1.1 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$15M
worth $19M, owed $5M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$21M
average case $+21M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE19%
19% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.2 WAR a year on average
$+21M risk-adjusted × 19% confidence
= $+4M trade value
#185
NYY · P · 20y
+$4M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$15M▲+$56M
2027MiLB$0.0M-0.4—
2028MiLB$0.0M-0.1—
2029MiLB$0.0M0.2—
2030MiLB$0.0M0.6—
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M0.9+$2
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M1.1+$5
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M1.1+$5
2034Arb-1$2.4M1.1+$4
2035Arb-2$3.4M0.9+$1
2036Arb-3$4.0M0.7+$0
TOT$12M5.8+$17
0.00.81.6273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS ROK24.1 IP · 12.6% K · 19.3% BB · 6.66 ERA · 5.53 FIP
108 IP  ·  23% K  ·  12% BB  ·  4.60 ERA  ·  1.0 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$15M
worth $17M, owed $2M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$23M
average case $+23M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE17%
17% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+23M risk-adjusted × 17% confidence
= $+4M trade value
#186
PIT · P · 20y
+$4M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$14M▲+$46M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.2—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.3—
2029MiLB$0.0M0.6—
2030MiLB$0.0M0.8—
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M1.0+$5
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M1.1+$5
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M1.1+$5
2034Arb-1$2.4M1.1+$4
2035Arb-2$3.7M1.0+$3
2036Arb-3$6.0M1.1+$2
TOT$15M6.4+$25
0.00.81.6273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A+/A81.1 IP · 39.5% K · 20.5% BB · 2.88 ERA · 3.32 FIP
66 IP  ·  32% K  ·  13% BB  ·  4.01 ERA  ·  1.1 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$14M
worth $20M, owed $7M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$19M
average case $+19M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE19%
19% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL6 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+19M risk-adjusted × 19% confidence
= $+4M trade value
#187
MIN · P · 21y
+$4M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$18M▲+$73M
2027MiLB$0.0M-0.1—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.2—
2029MiLB$0.0M0.7—
2030MiLB$0.0M1.1—
2031MiLB$0.0M1.3—
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M1.4+$7
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M1.3+$6
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M1.2+$5
2035Arb-1$2.0M0.9+$1
2036Arb-2$2.4M0.7+$1
2037Arb-3$7.4M0.4+$0
TOT$15M5.9+$20
0.00.91.9273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A/ROK40.0 IP · 21.3% K · 13.3% BB · 6.53 ERA · 4.62 FIP
109 IP  ·  25% K  ·  11% BB  ·  4.47 ERA  ·  1.0 WAR/yr
over 5 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$18M
worth $20M, owed $2M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$29M
average case $+29M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE13%
13% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
1.3 WAR a year on average
$+29M risk-adjusted × 13% confidence
= $+4M trade value
#188
DET · P · 28y
+$4M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$3M+$5M▲+$17M
2027Arb-1$2.0M0.9+$2
2028Arb-2$4.2M1.1+$4
2029Arb-3$4.2M0.8+$0
TOT$10M2.8+$6
0.00.81.6273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
62 IP  ·  23% K  ·  8% BB  ·  4.00 ERA  ·  1.0 WAR/yr
over 3 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$5M
worth $10M, owed $6M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$5M
average case $+6M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE68%
68% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL2 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+5M risk-adjusted × 68% confidence
= $+4M trade value
#189
CHC · P · 29y
+$3M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$14M+$6M▲+$31M
2027Arb-2$8.9M1.8+$6
2028Arb-3$8.9M1.1+$0
TOT$18M2.9+$6
0.01.22.4273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA109.0 IP · 25.9% K · 9.9% BB · 3.22 ERA · 4.01 FIP
MLB10.0 IP · 14.3% K · 22.4% BB · 7.20 ERA · 5.35 FIP
139 IP  ·  21% K  ·  8% BB  ·  4.37 ERA  ·  1.5 WAR/yr
over 2 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$6M
worth $23M, owed $17M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$4M
average case $+8M, less $4M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE87%
87% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL2 yr
1.5 WAR a year on average
$+4M risk-adjusted × 87% confidence
= $+3M trade value
#190
MIA · P · 31y
+$3M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$4M+$6M▲+$16M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.2+$9
2028Arb-1$1.6M0.7+$1
2029Arb-2$1.6M0.4+$0
2030Arb-3$1.6M0.1+$0
TOT$5.6M2.4+$10
0.00.91.8273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA7.1 IP · 23.1% K · 0.0% BB · 2.45 ERA · 3.70 FIP
MLB125.1 IP · 17.0% K · 6.3% BB · 4.16 ERA · 4.17 FIP
60 IP  ·  16% K  ·  5% BB  ·  4.45 ERA  ·  0.6 WAR/yr
over 4 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$6M
worth $7M, owed $1M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$5M
average case $+6M, less $1M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE68%
68% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL1 yr
1.3 WAR a year on average
$+5M risk-adjusted × 68% confidence
= $+3M trade value
#191
HOU · P · 20y
+$3M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$18M▲+$64M
2027MiLB$0.0M1.1—
2028MiLB$0.0M0.6—
2029MiLB$0.0M1.1—
2030MiLB$0.0M1.4—
2031MiLB$0.0M1.6—
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M1.4+$7
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M1.5+$7
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M1.4+$6
2035Arb-1$1.2M1.3+$5
2036Arb-2$1.7M1.1+$4
2037Arb-3$7.4M0.9+$0
TOT$13M7.6+$29
0.01.02.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A/ROK75.2 IP · 28.2% K · 9.1% BB · 3.69 ERA · 3.28 FIP
71 IP  ·  25% K  ·  6% BB  ·  3.73 ERA  ·  1.3 WAR/yr
over 5 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$18M
worth $21M, owed $3M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$26M
average case $+26M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE13%
13% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL5 yr
1.3 WAR a year on average
$+26M risk-adjusted × 13% confidence
= $+3M trade value
#192
MIA · P · 32y
+$3M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$4M▲+$12M
2027Arb-3$6.4M1.3+$4
TOT$6.4M1.3+$4
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
164 IP  ·  22% K  ·  10% BB  ·  4.59 ERA  ·  1.3 WAR/yr
over 1 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$4M
worth $10M, owed $6M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$5M
average case $+5M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE63%
63% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL1 yr
1.3 WAR a year on average
$+5M risk-adjusted × 63% confidence
= $+3M trade value
#193
NYM · P · 24y
+$3M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$7M+$6M▲+$24M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M0.6+$2
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.9+$3
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M1.0+$6
2030Arb-1$3.4M1.0+$4
2031Arb-2$5.3M0.9+$0
2032Arb-3$5.6M0.7+$0
TOT$17M5.1+$14
0.00.51.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA107.0 IP · 27.0% K · 12.6% BB · 4.54 ERA · 5.32 FIP
MLB32.1 IP · 25.4% K · 10.4% BB · 3.62 ERA · 3.34 FIP
82 IP  ·  27% K  ·  11% BB  ·  4.40 ERA  ·  0.9 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$6M
worth $9M, owed $3M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$6M
average case $+7M, less $2M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE59%
59% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL2 yr
1.0 WAR a year on average
$+6M risk-adjusted × 59% confidence
= $+3M trade value
#194
LAA · P · 21y
+$3M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$4M▲+$19M
2027MiLB$0.0M0.4—
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.4+$1
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M0.7+$2
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M0.9+$2
2031Arb-1$2.2M1.0+$4
2032Arb-2$4.0M1.0+$3
2033Arb-3$5.5M1.0+$2
TOT$14M5.0+$14
0.00.51.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS A+/A98.0 IP · 32.9% K · 12.7% BB · 4.78 ERA · 3.59 FIP
76 IP  ·  25% K  ·  10% BB  ·  4.34 ERA  ·  0.8 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$4M
worth $11M, owed $7M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$7M
average case $+7M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE45%
45% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
1.0 WAR a year on average
$+7M risk-adjusted × 45% confidence
= $+3M trade value
#195
SEA · P · 28y
+$3M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$2M+$4M▲+$13M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.0+$7
2028Arb-1$1.4M0.6+$1
2029Arb-2$1.4M0.4+$0
2030Arb-3$1.4M0.2+$0
TOT$5.0M2.2+$8
0.00.51.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB140.1 IP · 22.3% K · 5.7% BB · 3.53 ERA · 4.04 FIP · 2.6 WAR
74 IP  ·  19% K  ·  7% BB  ·  4.72 ERA  ·  0.6 WAR/yr
over 4 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$4M
worth $5M, owed $1M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$4M
average case $+5M, less $0M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE68%
68% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL1 yr
1.0 WAR a year on average
$+4M risk-adjusted × 68% confidence
= $+3M trade value
#196
STL · P · 27y
+$3M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$2M+$5M▲+$11M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.2+$9
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.8+$2
2029Arb-1$1.1M0.4+$0
2030Arb-2$1.1M0.2+$0
2031Arb-3$1.1M0.1+$0
TOT$4.9M2.7+$12
0.00.81.7273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB170.1 IP · 16.4% K · 6.8% BB · 3.91 ERA · 4.27 FIP · 2.4 WAR
75 IP  ·  15% K  ·  6% BB  ·  4.72 ERA  ·  0.5 WAR/yr
over 5 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$5M
worth $6M, owed $1M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$5M
average case $+5M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE68%
68% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL1 yr
1.2 WAR a year on average
$+5M risk-adjusted × 68% confidence
= $+3M trade value
#197
DET · P · 25y
+$3M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$0M▲+$14M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M0.7+$2
2028Arb-1$3.5M1.1+$5
2029Arb-2$6.0M1.1+$3
2030Arb-3$8.3M1.0+$0
TOT$19M3.9+$10
0.00.81.6273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AA/A+/A/ROK16.0 IP · 26.2% K · 6.2% BB · 1.69 ERA · 1.96 FIP
MLB46.0 IP · 26.4% K · 8.3% BB · 3.91 ERA · 4.22 FIP
72 IP  ·  27% K  ·  9% BB  ·  4.14 ERA  ·  1.0 WAR/yr
over 4 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$0M
worth $14M, owed $14M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$4M
average case $+4M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE73%
73% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL3 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+4M risk-adjusted × 73% confidence
= $+3M trade value
#198
TEX · P · 27y
+$3M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼-$2M+$5M▲+$10M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.1+$8
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.8+$2
2029Arb-1$1.3M0.5+$1
2030Arb-2$1.3M0.3+$0
2031Arb-3$1.3M0.1+$0
TOT$5.5M2.8+$11
0.00.81.6273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MLB148.0 IP · 21.4% K · 9.5% BB · 4.38 ERA · 4.36 FIP · 2.1 WAR
71 IP  ·  21% K  ·  10% BB  ·  4.73 ERA  ·  0.6 WAR/yr
over 5 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$5M
worth $6M, owed $1M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$4M
average case $+4M, less $0M for the bad-case loss
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE66%
66% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL1 yr
1.1 WAR a year on average
$+4M risk-adjusted × 66% confidence
= $+3M trade value
#199
HOU · P · 25y
+$3M
TV SCORE
SURPLUS RANGE (P10 – P90)
▼+$0M+$1M▲+$19M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M1.2+$9
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M0.5+$1
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M0.7+$2
2030Arb-1$1.8M0.7+$1
2031Arb-2$2.4M0.6+$0
2032Arb-3$2.5M0.4+$0
TOT$9.0M4.1+$13
0.00.51.0273136
━ proj WAR   ━ paid WAR▮▮ net
MINORS AAA/AA102.0 IP · 33.1% K · 12.1% BB · 3.53 ERA · 4.12 FIP
100 IP  ·  26% K  ·  10% BB  ·  4.58 ERA  ·  0.5 WAR/yr
over 6 yr of team control
SURPLUS+$1M
worth $1M, owed $0M
future $ discounted 10%/yr
RISK-ADJUSTED+$6M
average case $+6M
weighs 30% bad · 40% typical · 30% good
CONFIDENCE45%
45% won't bust × 100% close to the majors
TEAM CONTROL1 yr
0.1 WAR a year on average
$+6M risk-adjusted × 45% confidence
= $+3M trade value

Looking for a specific player not above (Judge, Ohtani, Trout, etc.)? Veterans on market-rate long-term deals often have negative surplus and rank lower — see the Notable Long-Term Contracts table below for big-money players regardless of surplus, or click Show all in the filter bar to reveal rows beyond the top 100.

Notable Long-Term Contracts

All players with manually-curated contract data (extensions, opt-outs, deferrals), ranked by total dollars owed. Surplus may be negative when a player's projected production doesn't justify their salary.

# Player Yrs Owed Future WAR Value Surplus
1
Juan Soto NTC OPT DEF
NYM · LF · age 28
8$230M28.0$272M$+41M
2
Bobby Witt Jr. OPT
KC · SS · age 27
8$160M33.3$326M$+166M
3
Julio Rodríguez
SEA · CF · age 26
7$130M16.5$128M$-2M
4
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. NTC
TOR · 1B · age 28
4$123M6.3$47M$-76M
5
Fernando Tatis Jr.
SD · RF · age 28
6$114M19.8$191M$+77M
6
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
LAD · P · age 28
5$111M11.8$98M$-13M
7
Aaron Judge NTC
NYY · RF · age 35
3$108M7.5$69M$-39M
8
Shohei Ohtani NTC DEF
LAD · DH · age 33
4$104M12.9$131M$+26M
9
Kevin McGonigle
DET · 3B · age 22
8$97M34.3$320M$+223M
10
Mike Trout
LAA · CF · age 35
3$96M5.8$46M$-50M
11
Francisco Lindor
NYM · SS · age 33
3$92M6.3$54M$-38M
12
Rafael Devers
SF · 1B · age 30
3$85M4.8$36M$-49M
13
Konnor Griffin
PIT · SS · age 21
8$84M24.5$184M$+99M
14
Pete Crow-Armstrong OPT
CHC · CF · age 25
6$83M29.4$293M$+210M
15
JJ Wetherholt OPT
STL · 2B · age 24
8$76M21.2$161M$+85M
16
Chase Burns
CIN · P · age 24
6$75M21.1$181M$+106M
17
Gerrit Cole
NYY · P · age 36
2$68M2.8$14M$-54M
18
Alex Bregman OPT
CHC · 3B · age 33
2$66M4.8$42M$-25M
19
Corey Seager
TEX · SS · age 33
2$62M3.9$32M$-29M
20
Mookie Betts
LAD · SS · age 34
2$58M4.4$37M$-21M
21
Corbin Burnes
ARI · P · age 32
2$57M2.6$13M$-44M
22
Corbin Carroll OPT
ARI · RF · age 26
5$57M17.0$157M$+100M
23
Cristopher Sánchez
PHI · P · age 30
5$54M15.0$139M$+85M
24
Trea Turner
PHI · SS · age 34
2$52M4.2$37M$-15M
25
Jackson Chourio
MIL · CF · age 23
5$51M17.8$159M$+108M
26
Tyler Glasnow
LAD · P · age 33
2$48M3.4$17M$-30M
27
Ketel Marte
ARI · 2B · age 33
3$42M6.8$61M$+19M
28
Kyle Schwarber
PHI · LF · age 34
2$38M3.8$32M$-6M
29
Yordan Alvarez
HOU · LF · age 30
2$37M8.5$96M$+59M
30
Michael Harris II OPT
ATL · CF · age 26
5$36M12.5$96M$+60M
31
Cooper Pratt
MIL · SS · age 22
7$34M16.7$112M$+79M
32
Manny Machado
SD · 3B · age 35
1$32M2.4$19M$-13M
33
Jacob Wilson
OAK · SS · age 25
3$26M3.3$23M$-4M
34
Ronald Acuña Jr. OPT
ATL · RF · age 29
1$26M3.1$28M$+3M
35
Cody Bellinger OPT
NYY · LF · age 32
1$25M2.0$16M$-9M
36
Trevor Story OPT
BOS · SS · age 34
1$25M0.1$0M$-25M
37
José Ramírez
CLE · 3B · age 34
1$22M2.6$21M$-1M
38
Luis Lara
MIL · CF · age 22
6$22M10.4$68M$+46M
39
Jeff McNeil
OAK · 2B · age 35
1$20M1.2$10M$-10M
40
Will Smith
LAD · C · age 32
1$14M2.0$16M$+2M
41
Sandy Alcantara OPT
MIA · P · age 31
1$13M1.8$14M$+1M

Career Value Gantt — Top 100

Per-player projection trajectory: royal solid = WAR (left scale, max 7), slate dashed = salary $M (right scale, max $30M). Both axes normalized across the top-100 so trajectories are comparable. Totals at end. Click a row for full year-by-year breakdown.

#Player Trajectory (2027–2037) SAL VAL SURP + SURP − FUT WAR OWED SURPLUS
1
▸
Pete Crow-Armstrong
CHC · CF · age 25
256/332/494 · 21 HR · 23 SB · 5.2W avg over 6yr ctrl
2027: 4.2 WAR · value $48M − salary $14M = +$34M272028: 5.8 WAR · value $65M − salary $16M = +$48M282029: 5.7 WAR · value $59M − salary $18M = +$41M292030: 5.5 WAR · value $53M − salary $18M = +$34M302031: 5.2 WAR · value $46M − salary $17M = +$29M312032: 4.8 WAR · value $39M − salary $0M = +$39M322033: beyond projection horizon332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon3731.2$83M+$210M
2
▸
Jacob Misiorowski
MIL · P · age 25
147 IP · 2.67 ERA · 37% K · 4.9W avg over 5yr ctrl
2027: 5.9 WAR · value $71M − salary $1M = +$70M272028: 5.3 WAR · value $59M − salary $1M = +$58M282029: 4.8 WAR · value $49M − salary $9M = +$40M292030: 4.6 WAR · value $44M − salary $14M = +$30M302031: 4.1 WAR · value $34M − salary $17M = +$17M312032: beyond projection horizon322033: beyond projection horizon332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon3724.7$41M+$216M
3
▸
Kevin McGonigle
DET · 3B · age 22
287/384/471 · 20 HR · 11 SB · 4.6W avg over 8yr ctrl
2027: 4.4 WAR · value $52M − salary $3M = +$49M272028: 4.4 WAR · value $48M − salary $8M = +$40M282029: 4.7 WAR · value $48M − salary $14M = +$34M292030: 4.9 WAR · value $47M − salary $17M = +$30M302031: 4.9 WAR · value $43M − salary $16M = +$28M312032: 4.7 WAR · value $39M − salary $15M = +$24M322033: 4.4 WAR · value $33M − salary $13M = +$20M332034: 4.0 WAR · value $26M − salary $12M = +$14M342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon3736.4$97M+$223M
4
▸
Bobby Witt Jr.
KC · SS · age 27
282/340/468 · 20 HR · 26 SB · 4.7W avg over 8yr ctrl
2027: 6.7 WAR · value $80M − salary $19M = +$61M272028: 6.3 WAR · value $70M − salary $27M = +$43M282029: 5.9 WAR · value $61M − salary $24M = +$37M292030: 5.4 WAR · value $52M − salary $22M = +$30M302031: 4.7 WAR · value $42M − salary $20M = +$22M312032: 4.0 WAR · value $30M − salary $18M = +$12M322033: 2.7 WAR · value $14M − salary $16M = $-2M332034: 1.7 WAR · value $8M − salary $14M = $-6M342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon3737.4$160M+$166M
5
▸
Cam Schlittler
NYY · P · age 26
140 IP · 3.17 ERA · 31% K · 3.7W avg over 5yr ctrl
2027: 5.2 WAR · value $62M − salary $1M = +$62M272028: 4.1 WAR · value $43M − salary $1M = +$42M282029: 3.6 WAR · value $32M − salary $7M = +$25M292030: 3.1 WAR · value $23M − salary $9M = +$14M302031: 2.5 WAR · value $15M − salary $10M = +$5M312032: beyond projection horizon322033: beyond projection horizon332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon3718.5$27M+$147M
6
▸
James Wood
WSH · RF · age 24
257/367/508 · 33 HR · 19 SB · 4.1W avg over 4yr ctrl
2027: 4.1 WAR · value $46M − salary $1M = +$45M272028: 4.1 WAR · value $43M − salary $9M = +$34M282029: 4.1 WAR · value $39M − salary $13M = +$26M292030: 4.0 WAR · value $35M − salary $18M = +$17M302031: beyond projection horizon312032: beyond projection horizon322033: beyond projection horizon332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon3716.3$40M+$120M
7
▸
Corbin Carroll
ARI · RF · age 26
245/332/475 · 24 HR · 33 SB · 3.5W avg over 5yr ctrl
2027: 4.4 WAR · value $52M − salary $14M = +$38M272028: 3.9 WAR · value $39M − salary $14M = +$25M282029: 3.6 WAR · value $32M − salary $14M = +$17M292030: 3.2 WAR · value $24M − salary $14M = +$10M302031: 2.6 WAR · value $16M − salary $0M = +$16M312032: beyond projection horizon322033: beyond projection horizon332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon3717.7$57M+$100M
8
▸
Jackson Chourio
MIL · CF · age 23
281/336/473 · 24 HR · 32 SB · 3.7W avg over 5yr ctrl
2027: 3.7 WAR · value $38M − salary $9M = +$29M272028: 3.6 WAR · value $34M − salary $10M = +$24M282029: 3.7 WAR · value $33M − salary $11M = +$23M292030: 3.7 WAR · value $31M − salary $11M = +$20M302031: 3.6 WAR · value $27M − salary $10M = +$17M312032: beyond projection horizon322033: beyond projection horizon332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon3718.3$51M+$108M
9
▸
Junior Caminero
TB · 3B · age 24
268/337/512 · 36 HR · 4 SB · 4.0W avg over 4yr ctrl
2027: 4.2 WAR · value $48M − salary $1M = +$47M272028: 3.9 WAR · value $39M − salary $8M = +$31M282029: 3.9 WAR · value $36M − salary $12M = +$24M292030: 3.8 WAR · value $32M − salary $17M = +$15M302031: beyond projection horizon312032: beyond projection horizon322033: beyond projection horizon332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon3715.8$38M+$114M
10
▸
Elly De La Cruz
CIN · SS · age 25
270/349/491 · 27 HR · 35 SB · 5.0W avg over 3yr ctrl
2027: 5.3 WAR · value $64M − salary $11M = +$53M272028: 4.9 WAR · value $55M − salary $17M = +$37M282029: 4.8 WAR · value $49M − salary $23M = +$26M292030: beyond projection horizon302031: beyond projection horizon312032: beyond projection horizon322033: beyond projection horizon332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon3715.0$51M+$115M
11
▸
Payton Tolle
BOS · P · age 24
126 IP · 3.32 ERA · 30% K · 3.1W avg over 5yr ctrl
2027: 3.3 WAR · value $32M − salary $1M = +$31M272028: 3.2 WAR · value $28M − salary $1M = +$27M282029: 3.2 WAR · value $26M − salary $6M = +$20M292030: 3.0 WAR · value $22M − salary $9M = +$13M302031: 2.8 WAR · value $18M − salary $11M = +$6M312032: beyond projection horizon322033: beyond projection horizon332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon3715.5$28M+$97M
12
▸
Seth Hernandez
PIT · P · age 21
143 IP · 3.57 ERA · 30% K · 2.9W avg over 6yr ctrl
2027: still in MiLB272028: 1.8 WAR · value $13M − salary $1M = +$13M282029: 2.8 WAR · value $21M − salary $1M = +$20M292030: 3.2 WAR · value $24M − salary $1M = +$23M302031: 3.3 WAR · value $23M − salary $5M = +$19M312032: 3.4 WAR · value $23M − salary $7M = +$15M322033: 3.2 WAR · value $19M − salary $9M = +$10M332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon3717.7$24M+$100M
13
▸
Carter Jensen
KC · C · age 24
237/324/445 · 20 HR · 3 SB · 2.8W avg over 5yr ctrl
2027: 3.1 WAR · value $29M − salary $1M = +$28M272028: 2.8 WAR · value $22M − salary $1M = +$22M282029: 2.8 WAR · value $21M − salary $5M = +$16M292030: 2.8 WAR · value $19M − salary $7M = +$12M302031: 2.6 WAR · value $16M − salary $10M = +$6M312032: beyond projection horizon322033: beyond projection horizon332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon3714.1$23M+$81M
14
▸
Luke Keaschall
MIN · 2B · age 24
271/365/390 · 9 HR · 25 SB · 2.8W avg over 5yr ctrl
2027: 3.1 WAR · value $29M − salary $1M = +$28M272028: 2.9 WAR · value $24M − salary $1M = +$23M282029: 2.9 WAR · value $22M − salary $6M = +$16M292030: 2.8 WAR · value $19M − salary $9M = +$10M302031: 2.5 WAR · value $15M − salary $11M = +$4M312032: beyond projection horizon322033: beyond projection horizon332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon3714.2$27M+$79M
15
▸
Paul Skenes
PIT · P · age 25
143 IP · 3.17 ERA · 30% K · 3.9W avg over 3yr ctrl
2027: 4.5 WAR · value $54M − salary $9M = +$45M272028: 3.8 WAR · value $37M − salary $12M = +$25M282029: 3.5 WAR · value $30M − salary $15M = +$15M292030: beyond projection horizon302031: beyond projection horizon312032: beyond projection horizon322033: beyond projection horizon332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon3711.8$37M+$85M
16
▸
Drake Baldwin
ATL · C · age 26
273/345/463 · 19 HR · 1 SB · 3.1W avg over 4yr ctrl
2027: 3.6 WAR · value $37M − salary $1M = +$36M272028: 3.2 WAR · value $28M − salary $6M = +$22M282029: 3.0 WAR · value $23M − salary $8M = +$15M292030: 2.8 WAR · value $19M − salary $11M = +$9M302031: beyond projection horizon312032: beyond projection horizon322033: beyond projection horizon332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon3712.6$25M+$80M
17
▸
JJ Wetherholt
STL · 2B · age 24
259/352/399 · 17 HR · 10 SB · 2.9W avg over 8yr ctrl
2027: 3.6 WAR · value $37M − salary $5M = +$32M272028: 3.3 WAR · value $29M − salary $9M = +$20M282029: 3.3 WAR · value $27M − salary $11M = +$16M292030: 3.2 WAR · value $24M − salary $12M = +$12M302031: 2.9 WAR · value $19M − salary $12M = +$6M312032: 2.6 WAR · value $15M − salary $12M = +$2M322033: 2.2 WAR · value $11M − salary $13M = $-2M332034: 1.8 WAR · value $8M − salary $0M = +$8M342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon3722.9$76M+$85M
18
▸
Parker Messick
CLE · P · age 26
120 IP · 3.56 ERA · 24% K · 2.5W avg over 5yr ctrl
2027: 3.7 WAR · value $38M − salary $1M = +$38M272028: 2.8 WAR · value $22M − salary $1M = +$22M282029: 2.4 WAR · value $16M − salary $5M = +$12M292030: 2.0 WAR · value $13M − salary $6M = +$7M302031: 1.5 WAR · value $9M − salary $6M = +$3M312032: beyond projection horizon322033: beyond projection horizon332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon3712.4$18M+$81M
19
▸
Ryan Sloan
SEA · P · age 21
141 IP · 3.33 ERA · 28% K · 3.1W avg over 6yr ctrl
2027: still in MiLB272028: 1.8 WAR · value $13M − salary $1M = +$13M282029: 3.0 WAR · value $23M − salary $1M = +$23M292030: 3.3 WAR · value $25M − salary $1M = +$25M302031: 3.5 WAR · value $26M − salary $5M = +$20M312032: 3.7 WAR · value $26M − salary $8M = +$18M322033: 3.6 WAR · value $23M − salary $11M = +$13M332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon3718.9$26M+$111M
20
▸
Chase Burns
CIN · P · age 24
137 IP · 3.23 ERA · 33% K · 3.5W avg over 6yr ctrl
2027: 3.9 WAR · value $42M − salary $8M = +$34M272028: 3.7 WAR · value $36M − salary $12M = +$24M282029: 3.8 WAR · value $35M − salary $14M = +$21M292030: 3.5 WAR · value $28M − salary $14M = +$14M302031: 3.3 WAR · value $23M − salary $14M = +$10M312032: 2.9 WAR · value $17M − salary $14M = +$3M322033: beyond projection horizon332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon3721.1$75M+$106M
21
▸
Jesús Made
MIL · SS · age 20
269/335/449 · 19 HR · 19 SB · 2.9W avg over 6yr ctrl
2027: still in MiLB272028: 1.4 WAR · value $10M − salary $1M = +$10M282029: 2.3 WAR · value $16M − salary $1M = +$15M292030: 2.9 WAR · value $20M − salary $1M = +$20M302031: 3.3 WAR · value $23M − salary $6M = +$18M312032: 3.6 WAR · value $25M − salary $9M = +$16M322033: 3.7 WAR · value $24M − salary $13M = +$12M332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon3717.2$30M+$85M
22
▸
A.J. Ewing
NYM · CF · age 22
251/328/377 · 13 HR · 38 SB · 2.5W avg over 6yr ctrl
2027: 2.6 WAR · value $21M − salary $1M = +$21M272028: 2.3 WAR · value $17M − salary $1M = +$16M282029: 2.5 WAR · value $17M − salary $1M = +$17M292030: 2.5 WAR · value $16M − salary $5M = +$11M302031: 2.5 WAR · value $15M − salary $8M = +$7M312032: 2.4 WAR · value $13M − salary $11M = +$3M322033: beyond projection horizon332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon3714.8$26M+$71M
23
▸
Michael Harris II
ATL · CF · age 26
277/304/464 · 23 HR · 11 SB · 2.6W avg over 5yr ctrl
2027: 3.3 WAR · value $32M − salary $9M = +$23M272028: 2.9 WAR · value $24M − salary $9M = +$15M282029: 2.6 WAR · value $18M − salary $9M = +$9M292030: 2.3 WAR · value $15M − salary $9M = +$6M302031: 1.9 WAR · value $11M − salary $0M = +$11M312032: beyond projection horizon322033: beyond projection horizon332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon3713.0$36M+$60M
24
▸
Ben Rice
NYY · 1B · age 28
260/352/517 · 34 HR · 2 SB · 3.4W avg over 4yr ctrl
2027: 4.3 WAR · value $50M − salary $1M = +$49M272028: 3.6 WAR · value $34M − salary $8M = +$26M282029: 3.1 WAR · value $25M − salary $11M = +$14M292030: 2.6 WAR · value $17M − salary $12M = +$5M302031: beyond projection horizon312032: beyond projection horizon322033: beyond projection horizon332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon3713.6$31M+$91M
25
▸
Cristopher Sánchez
PHI · P · age 30
103 IP · 3.73 ERA · 24% K · 2.3W avg over 7yr ctrl
2027: 5.2 WAR · value $62M − salary $6M = +$56M272028: 3.7 WAR · value $36M − salary $8M = +$28M282029: 2.8 WAR · value $21M − salary $11M = +$9M292030: 2.0 WAR · value $13M − salary $11M = +$2M302031: 1.3 WAR · value $8M − salary $18M = $-10M312032: 0.7 WAR · value $2M − salary $7M = $-5M322033: 0.3 WAR · value $1M − salary $6M = $-5M332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon3716.0$67M+$85M
26
▸
Rainiel Rodriguez
STL · C · age 20
264/346/484 · 21 HR · 8 SB · 2.7W avg over 6yr ctrl
2027: still in MiLB272028: 1.9 WAR · value $14M − salary $1M = +$13M282029: 2.5 WAR · value $17M − salary $1M = +$17M292030: 2.9 WAR · value $20M − salary $1M = +$20M302031: 2.9 WAR · value $19M − salary $5M = +$14M312032: 3.0 WAR · value $18M − salary $8M = +$11M322033: 2.9 WAR · value $16M − salary $10M = +$6M332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon3716.1$25M+$77M
27
▸
Konnor Griffin
PIT · SS · age 21
273/336/458 · 21 HR · 38 SB · 3.2W avg over 8yr ctrl
2027: 1.5 WAR · value $12M − salary $3M = +$9M272028: 2.3 WAR · value $17M − salary $4M = +$13M282029: 3.2 WAR · value $26M − salary $8M = +$18M292030: 3.7 WAR · value $31M − salary $11M = +$20M302031: 4.0 WAR · value $32M − salary $13M = +$19M312032: 4.0 WAR · value $30M − salary $15M = +$15M322033: 3.8 WAR · value $26M − salary $16M = +$10M332034: 3.5 WAR · value $21M − salary $14M = +$6M342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon3726.0$84M+$99M
28
▸
Eli Willits
WSH · SS · age 19
252/345/425 · 17 HR · 16 SB · 2.8W avg over 6yr ctrl
2027: still in MiLB272028: 1.6 WAR · value $12M − salary $1M = +$11M282029: 2.4 WAR · value $16M − salary $1M = +$16M292030: 2.9 WAR · value $20M − salary $1M = +$20M302031: 3.2 WAR · value $22M − salary $6M = +$17M312032: 3.3 WAR · value $22M − salary $9M = +$13M322033: 3.4 WAR · value $21M − salary $12M = +$9M332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon3716.8$29M+$81M
29
▸
Leo De Vries
OAK · SS · age 20
254/329/437 · 20 HR · 16 SB · 2.5W avg over 6yr ctrl
2027: still in MiLB272028: 1.3 WAR · value $10M − salary $1M = +$9M282029: 2.0 WAR · value $14M − salary $1M = +$13M292030: 2.6 WAR · value $17M − salary $1M = +$16M302031: 2.9 WAR · value $19M − salary $5M = +$14M312032: 3.0 WAR · value $18M − salary $8M = +$10M322033: 3.1 WAR · value $18M − salary $11M = +$7M332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon3714.9$26M+$66M
30
▸
Cooper Pratt
MIL · SS · age 22
254/332/380 · 12 HR · 31 SB · 2.5W avg over 7yr ctrl
2027: 1.3 WAR · value $10M − salary $2M = +$8M272028: 2.2 WAR · value $16M − salary $4M = +$13M282029: 2.6 WAR · value $18M − salary $4M = +$14M292030: 3.0 WAR · value $22M − salary $5M = +$16M302031: 3.0 WAR · value $20M − salary $6M = +$14M312032: 2.9 WAR · value $17M − salary $6M = +$12M322033: 2.6 WAR · value $14M − salary $7M = +$7M332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon3717.6$33M+$79M
31
▸
Henry Bolte
OAK · OF · age 23
252/333/401 · 19 HR · 44 SB · 2.3W avg over 6yr ctrl
2027: 1.9 WAR · value $15M − salary $1M = +$14M272028: 2.2 WAR · value $16M − salary $1M = +$16M282029: 2.4 WAR · value $16M − salary $1M = +$16M292030: 2.6 WAR · value $17M − salary $5M = +$12M302031: 2.4 WAR · value $14M − salary $8M = +$6M312032: 2.1 WAR · value $12M − salary $10M = +$2M322033: beyond projection horizon332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon3713.6$25M+$63M
32
▸
Geraldo Perdomo
ARI · SS · age 27
252/361/368 · 10 HR · 17 SB · 2.9W avg over 3yr ctrl
2027: 3.4 WAR · value $33M − salary $11M = +$22M272028: 2.8 WAR · value $22M − salary $10M = +$12M282029: 2.5 WAR · value $17M − salary $9M = +$8M292030: beyond projection horizon302031: beyond projection horizon312032: beyond projection horizon322033: beyond projection horizon332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon378.7$30M+$47M
33
▸
Dillon Dingler
DET · C · age 28
258/316/439 · 16 HR · 0 SB · 3.0W avg over 4yr ctrl
2027: 3.7 WAR · value $38M − salary $1M = +$38M272028: 3.1 WAR · value $26M − salary $6M = +$21M282029: 2.9 WAR · value $22M − salary $8M = +$14M292030: 2.5 WAR · value $16M − salary $10M = +$6M302031: beyond projection horizon312032: beyond projection horizon322033: beyond projection horizon332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon3712.2$24M+$75M
34
▸
Chase DeLauter
CLE · RF · age 25
279/357/455 · 15 HR · 7 SB · 2.3W avg over 5yr ctrl
2027: 2.8 WAR · value $24M − salary $1M = +$23M272028: 2.4 WAR · value $18M − salary $1M = +$17M282029: 2.4 WAR · value $16M − salary $5M = +$12M292030: 2.1 WAR · value $13M − salary $6M = +$7M302031: 1.8 WAR · value $11M − salary $8M = +$3M312032: beyond projection horizon322033: beyond projection horizon332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon3711.5$20M+$61M
35
▸
Sam Antonacci
CWS · LF · age 24
270/364/390 · 10 HR · 19 SB · 2.0W avg over 6yr ctrl
2027: 3.0 WAR · value $27M − salary $1M = +$26M272028: 2.1 WAR · value $16M − salary $1M = +$15M282029: 2.0 WAR · value $14M − salary $1M = +$13M292030: 1.9 WAR · value $12M − salary $4M = +$8M302031: 1.7 WAR · value $10M − salary $5M = +$5M312032: 1.3 WAR · value $7M − salary $6M = +$1M322033: beyond projection horizon332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon3712.0$17M+$67M
36
▸
Nolan McLean
NYM · P · age 26
113 IP · 3.81 ERA · 26% K · 2.0W avg over 5yr ctrl
2027: 3.0 WAR · value $27M − salary $1M = +$26M272028: 2.3 WAR · value $17M − salary $1M = +$16M282029: 2.0 WAR · value $14M − salary $4M = +$10M292030: 1.6 WAR · value $10M − salary $5M = +$6M302031: 1.1 WAR · value $6M − salary $4M = +$2M312032: beyond projection horizon322033: beyond projection horizon332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon3710.0$14M+$60M
37
▸
Kade Anderson
SEA · P · age 23
105 IP · 3.37 ERA · 27% K · 2.5W avg over 6yr ctrl
2027: 2.2 WAR · value $18M − salary $1M = +$17M272028: 2.2 WAR · value $16M − salary $1M = +$16M282029: 2.5 WAR · value $17M − salary $1M = +$17M292030: 2.7 WAR · value $18M − salary $7M = +$11M302031: 2.6 WAR · value $16M − salary $10M = +$5M312032: 2.5 WAR · value $14M − salary $13M = +$1M322033: beyond projection horizon332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon3714.7$32M+$66M
38
▸
Otto Lopez
MIA · SS · age 28
285/336/418 · 12 HR · 24 SB · 3.3W avg over 3yr ctrl
2027: 3.9 WAR · value $42M − salary $8M = +$34M272028: 3.2 WAR · value $28M − salary $12M = +$16M282029: 2.8 WAR · value $21M − salary $14M = +$6M292030: beyond projection horizon302031: beyond projection horizon312032: beyond projection horizon322033: beyond projection horizon332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon379.9$34M+$56M
39
▸
Carson Benge
NYM · RF · age 24
271/339/420 · 18 HR · 24 SB · 2.3W avg over 5yr ctrl
2027: 2.8 WAR · value $24M − salary $1M = +$23M272028: 2.3 WAR · value $17M − salary $1M = +$16M282029: 2.3 WAR · value $16M − salary $5M = +$11M292030: 2.2 WAR · value $14M − salary $7M = +$7M302031: 1.9 WAR · value $11M − salary $9M = +$2M312032: beyond projection horizon322033: beyond projection horizon332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon3711.5$23M+$59M
40
▸
Jesús Luzardo
PHI · P · age 29
144 IP · 3.27 ERA · 30% K · 4.4W avg over 1yr ctrl
2027: 4.4 WAR · value $52M − salary $14M = +$38M272028: beyond projection horizon282029: beyond projection horizon292030: beyond projection horizon302031: beyond projection horizon312032: beyond projection horizon322033: beyond projection horizon332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon374.4$14M+$48M
41
▸
Jackson Merrill
SD · CF · age 24
259/306/441 · 17 HR · 14 SB · 2.2W avg over 10yr ctrl
2027: 2.8 WAR · value $24M − salary $15M = +$9M272028: 3.2 WAR · value $28M − salary $14M = +$14M282029: 3.2 WAR · value $26M − salary $12M = +$14M292030: 3.0 WAR · value $22M − salary $11M = +$11M302031: 2.7 WAR · value $17M − salary $10M = +$7M312032: 2.3 WAR · value $13M − salary $9M = +$4M322033: 2.0 WAR · value $10M − salary $8M = +$2M332034: 1.4 WAR · value $7M − salary $7M = $-1M342035: 0.9 WAR · value $2M − salary $0M = +$2M352036: 0.3 WAR · value $1M − salary $0M = +$1M362037: beyond projection horizon3721.8$85M+$52M
42
▸
Josue De Paula
LAD · CF · age 22
269/354/474 · 22 HR · 19 SB · 2.6W avg over 6yr ctrl
2027: 1.2 WAR · value $10M − salary $1M = +$9M272028: 2.1 WAR · value $16M − salary $1M = +$15M282029: 2.8 WAR · value $21M − salary $1M = +$20M292030: 3.1 WAR · value $23M − salary $7M = +$16M302031: 3.2 WAR · value $22M − salary $11M = +$11M312032: 3.0 WAR · value $18M − salary $15M = +$4M322033: beyond projection horizon332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon3715.4$35M+$71M
43
▸
Bryce Eldridge
SF · 1B · age 22
258/351/465 · 27 HR · 3 SB · 2.3W avg over 6yr ctrl
2027: 1.5 WAR · value $12M − salary $1M = +$11M272028: 1.9 WAR · value $14M − salary $1M = +$13M282029: 2.4 WAR · value $16M − salary $1M = +$16M292030: 2.6 WAR · value $17M − salary $5M = +$12M302031: 2.8 WAR · value $18M − salary $8M = +$10M312032: 2.6 WAR · value $15M − salary $11M = +$4M322033: beyond projection horizon332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon3713.8$26M+$63M
44
▸
Thomas White
MIA · P · age 22
134 IP · 3.79 ERA · 30% K · 2.3W avg over 6yr ctrl
2027: still in MiLB272028: 1.4 WAR · value $10M − salary $1M = +$10M282029: 2.1 WAR · value $14M − salary $1M = +$14M292030: 2.5 WAR · value $16M − salary $1M = +$15M302031: 2.7 WAR · value $17M − salary $4M = +$13M312032: 2.6 WAR · value $15M − salary $6M = +$9M322033: 2.5 WAR · value $13M − salary $7M = +$6M332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon3713.8$19M+$66M
45
▸
Andy Pages
LAD · CF · age 26
265/326/448 · 21 HR · 10 SB · 2.6W avg over 4yr ctrl
2027: 3.0 WAR · value $27M − salary $4M = +$23M272028: 2.8 WAR · value $22M − salary $6M = +$16M282029: 2.5 WAR · value $17M − salary $9M = +$9M292030: 2.2 WAR · value $14M − salary $10M = +$4M302031: beyond projection horizon312032: beyond projection horizon322033: beyond projection horizon332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon3710.5$29M+$50M
46
▸
Caleb Bonemer
CWS · 3B · age 21
237/329/467 · 27 HR · 11 SB · 2.3W avg over 6yr ctrl
2027: still in MiLB272028: 1.5 WAR · value $11M − salary $1M = +$10M282029: 2.2 WAR · value $15M − salary $1M = +$14M292030: 2.6 WAR · value $17M − salary $1M = +$16M302031: 2.6 WAR · value $16M − salary $5M = +$11M312032: 2.6 WAR · value $15M − salary $7M = +$7M322033: 2.5 WAR · value $13M − salary $9M = +$3M332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon3714.0$23M+$60M
47
▸
Maikel Garcia
KC · 3B · age 27
269/337/396 · 8 HR · 11 SB · 2.8W avg over 4yr ctrl
2027: 2.4 WAR · value $19M − salary $12M = +$8M272028: 3.3 WAR · value $29M − salary $10M = +$19M282029: 2.9 WAR · value $22M − salary $9M = +$13M292030: 2.5 WAR · value $16M − salary $8M = +$8M302031: beyond projection horizon312032: beyond projection horizon322033: beyond projection horizon332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon3711.1$40M+$46M
48
▸
Theo Gillen
TB · CF · age 21
255/341/442 · 20 HR · 17 SB · 2.3W avg over 6yr ctrl
2027: still in MiLB272028: 1.4 WAR · value $10M − salary $1M = +$10M282029: 2.1 WAR · value $14M − salary $1M = +$14M292030: 2.5 WAR · value $16M − salary $1M = +$15M302031: 2.6 WAR · value $16M − salary $5M = +$11M312032: 2.6 WAR · value $15M − salary $8M = +$7M322033: 2.5 WAR · value $13M − salary $10M = +$3M332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon3713.7$24M+$57M
49
▸
Colson Montgomery
CWS · SS · age 25
204/285/420 · 30 HR · 1 SB · 2.1W avg over 5yr ctrl
2027: 2.7 WAR · value $23M − salary $1M = +$22M272028: 2.3 WAR · value $17M − salary $1M = +$16M282029: 2.2 WAR · value $15M − salary $4M = +$11M292030: 1.9 WAR · value $12M − salary $6M = +$6M302031: 1.6 WAR · value $9M − salary $7M = +$2M312032: beyond projection horizon322033: beyond projection horizon332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon3710.7$19M+$55M
50
▸
Ramon Marquez
SF · P · age 21
138 IP · 3.46 ERA · 30% K · 2.7W avg over 6yr ctrl
2027: still in MiLB272028: 1.3 WAR · value $10M − salary $1M = +$9M282029: 2.4 WAR · value $16M − salary $1M = +$16M292030: 2.9 WAR · value $20M − salary $1M = +$20M302031: 3.1 WAR · value $21M − salary $5M = +$16M312032: 3.3 WAR · value $22M − salary $8M = +$14M322033: 3.2 WAR · value $19M − salary $9M = +$10M332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon3716.2$24M+$84M
51
▸
Anthony Eyanson
BAL · P · age 22
135 IP · 3.63 ERA · 28% K · 2.4W avg over 6yr ctrl
2027: still in MiLB272028: 1.3 WAR · value $10M − salary $1M = +$9M282029: 2.1 WAR · value $14M − salary $1M = +$14M292030: 2.6 WAR · value $17M − salary $1M = +$16M302031: 2.8 WAR · value $18M − salary $4M = +$13M312032: 2.7 WAR · value $16M − salary $6M = +$9M322033: 2.6 WAR · value $14M − salary $8M = +$6M332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon3714.1$20M+$68M
52
▸
Franklin Arias
BOS · SS · age 21
275/335/453 · 21 HR · 9 SB · 3.0W avg over 6yr ctrl
2027: still in MiLB272028: still in MiLB282029: 2.7 WAR · value $19M − salary $1M = +$19M292030: 3.0 WAR · value $22M − salary $1M = +$21M302031: 3.2 WAR · value $22M − salary $1M = +$22M312032: 3.2 WAR · value $21M − salary $5M = +$15M322033: 3.1 WAR · value $18M − salary $8M = +$10M332034: 2.9 WAR · value $15M − salary $9M = +$6M342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon3718.1$24M+$87M
53
▸
Bryan Woo
SEA · P · age 27
134 IP · 3.63 ERA · 25% K · 2.8W avg over 3yr ctrl
2027: 3.4 WAR · value $33M − salary $7M = +$27M272028: 2.7 WAR · value $21M − salary $9M = +$12M282029: 2.2 WAR · value $15M − salary $10M = +$5M292030: beyond projection horizon302031: beyond projection horizon312032: beyond projection horizon322033: beyond projection horizon332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon378.3$26M+$44M
54
▸
Yordan Alvarez
HOU · LF · age 30
292/377/550 · 34 HR · 2 SB · 4.3W avg over 2yr ctrl
2027: 4.5 WAR · value $54M − salary $20M = +$34M272028: 4.2 WAR · value $44M − salary $18M = +$27M282029: beyond projection horizon292030: beyond projection horizon302031: beyond projection horizon312032: beyond projection horizon322033: beyond projection horizon332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon378.7$37M+$59M
55
▸
Gabriel Moreno
ARI · C · age 27
286/369/444 · 12 HR · 4 SB · 4.2W avg over 2yr ctrl
2027: 4.5 WAR · value $54M − salary $14M = +$40M272028: 4.0 WAR · value $41M − salary $18M = +$23M282029: beyond projection horizon292030: beyond projection horizon302031: beyond projection horizon312032: beyond projection horizon322033: beyond projection horizon332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon378.5$31M+$63M
56
▸
Jakob Marsee
MIA · CF · age 26
233/336/366 · 11 HR · 24 SB · 2.0W avg over 5yr ctrl
2027: 2.7 WAR · value $23M − salary $1M = +$22M272028: 2.3 WAR · value $17M − salary $1M = +$16M282029: 2.1 WAR · value $14M − salary $4M = +$10M292030: 1.7 WAR · value $11M − salary $6M = +$5M302031: 1.4 WAR · value $8M − salary $7M = +$1M312032: beyond projection horizon322033: beyond projection horizon332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon3710.2$19M+$52M
57
▸
Sal Stewart
CIN · 1B · age 23
261/330/452 · 28 HR · 12 SB · 2.0W avg over 5yr ctrl
2027: 3.1 WAR · value $29M − salary $1M = +$28M272028: 1.7 WAR · value $13M − salary $1M = +$12M282029: 1.8 WAR · value $12M − salary $4M = +$9M292030: 1.8 WAR · value $11M − salary $6M = +$6M302031: 1.7 WAR · value $10M − salary $8M = +$2M312032: beyond projection horizon322033: beyond projection horizon332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon3710.1$19M+$55M
58
▸
Kendry Chourio
KC · P · age 19
139 IP · 3.42 ERA · 26% K · 3.1W avg over 6yr ctrl
2027: still in MiLB272028: still in MiLB282029: 2.1 WAR · value $14M − salary $1M = +$14M292030: 2.8 WAR · value $19M − salary $1M = +$19M302031: 3.2 WAR · value $22M − salary $1M = +$22M312032: 3.4 WAR · value $23M − salary $5M = +$18M322033: 3.5 WAR · value $22M − salary $7M = +$15M332034: 3.6 WAR · value $22M − salary $9M = +$12M342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon3718.6$23M+$99M
59
▸
Brice Turang
MIL · 2B · age 27
260/344/411 · 15 HR · 24 SB · 2.9W avg over 3yr ctrl
2027: 3.2 WAR · value $30M − salary $6M = +$24M272028: 2.9 WAR · value $24M − salary $10M = +$14M282029: 2.5 WAR · value $17M − salary $12M = +$5M292030: beyond projection horizon302031: beyond projection horizon312032: beyond projection horizon322033: beyond projection horizon332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon378.6$28M+$42M
60
▸
Robby Snelling
MIA · P · age 23
124 IP · 3.62 ERA · 28% K · 2.4W avg over 6yr ctrl
2027: 1.4 WAR · value $11M − salary $1M = +$10M272028: 2.2 WAR · value $16M − salary $1M = +$16M282029: 2.7 WAR · value $19M − salary $1M = +$19M292030: 2.8 WAR · value $19M − salary $7M = +$12M302031: 2.7 WAR · value $17M − salary $11M = +$6M312032: 2.5 WAR · value $14M − salary $14M = $-0M322033: beyond projection horizon332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon3714.3$34M+$63M
61
▸
Braylon Doughty
CLE · P · age 21
139 IP · 3.41 ERA · 25% K · 3.0W avg over 6yr ctrl
2027: still in MiLB272028: still in MiLB282029: 2.5 WAR · value $17M − salary $1M = +$17M292030: 2.9 WAR · value $20M − salary $1M = +$20M302031: 3.1 WAR · value $21M − salary $1M = +$20M312032: 3.3 WAR · value $22M − salary $4M = +$17M322033: 3.2 WAR · value $19M − salary $6M = +$13M332034: 3.0 WAR · value $16M − salary $8M = +$8M342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon3718.0$21M+$95M
62
▸
David Shields
KC · P · age 20
133 IP · 3.58 ERA · 25% K · 2.4W avg over 6yr ctrl
2027: still in MiLB272028: 1.4 WAR · value $10M − salary $1M = +$10M282029: 2.1 WAR · value $14M − salary $1M = +$14M292030: 2.6 WAR · value $17M − salary $1M = +$16M302031: 2.9 WAR · value $19M − salary $4M = +$14M312032: 2.8 WAR · value $16M − salary $6M = +$10M322033: 2.9 WAR · value $16M − salary $9M = +$7M332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon3714.7$22M+$72M
63
▸
Travis Sykora
WSH · P · age 23
124 IP · 3.52 ERA · 31% K · 2.1W avg over 6yr ctrl
2027: still in MiLB272028: 1.2 WAR · value $9M − salary $1M = +$8M282029: 2.0 WAR · value $14M − salary $1M = +$13M292030: 2.5 WAR · value $16M − salary $1M = +$15M302031: 2.6 WAR · value $16M − salary $4M = +$12M312032: 2.4 WAR · value $13M − salary $6M = +$7M322033: 2.2 WAR · value $11M − salary $7M = +$5M332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon3712.9$18M+$60M
64
▸
Braxton Ashcraft
PIT · P · age 27
115 IP · 3.88 ERA · 25% K · 2.0W avg over 5yr ctrl
2027: 3.1 WAR · value $29M − salary $1M = +$28M272028: 2.4 WAR · value $18M − salary $1M = +$17M282029: 1.9 WAR · value $13M − salary $4M = +$9M292030: 1.5 WAR · value $10M − salary $4M = +$5M302031: 1.0 WAR · value $6M − salary $4M = +$2M312032: beyond projection horizon322033: beyond projection horizon332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon379.9$13M+$61M
65
▸
Christian Zazueta
LAD · P · age 22
118 IP · 3.57 ERA · 28% K · 2.1W avg over 6yr ctrl
2027: still in MiLB272028: 1.4 WAR · value $10M − salary $1M = +$10M282029: 2.0 WAR · value $14M − salary $1M = +$13M292030: 2.2 WAR · value $14M − salary $1M = +$13M302031: 2.4 WAR · value $14M − salary $4M = +$11M312032: 2.3 WAR · value $13M − salary $5M = +$7M322033: 2.2 WAR · value $11M − salary $7M = +$5M332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon3712.5$18M+$58M
66
▸
Alfredo Duno
CIN · C · age 21
231/326/432 · 19 HR · 5 SB · 2.0W avg over 6yr ctrl
2027: still in MiLB272028: 1.2 WAR · value $9M − salary $1M = +$8M282029: 1.8 WAR · value $12M − salary $1M = +$12M292030: 2.1 WAR · value $13M − salary $1M = +$13M302031: 2.3 WAR · value $14M − salary $4M = +$10M312032: 2.3 WAR · value $13M − salary $6M = +$6M322033: 2.3 WAR · value $12M − salary $8M = +$4M332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon3712.0$20M+$50M
67
▸
Logan Henderson
MIL · P · age 25
95 IP · 3.51 ERA · 28% K · 1.9W avg over 5yr ctrl
2027: 1.7 WAR · value $14M − salary $1M = +$13M272028: 2.1 WAR · value $16M − salary $1M = +$15M282029: 2.1 WAR · value $14M − salary $4M = +$10M292030: 2.0 WAR · value $13M − salary $6M = +$7M302031: 1.7 WAR · value $10M − salary $7M = +$3M312032: beyond projection horizon322033: beyond projection horizon332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon379.6$18M+$48M
68
▸
Jac Caglianone
KC · RF · age 24
274/331/492 · 23 HR · 5 SB · 2.1W avg over 5yr ctrl
2027: 2.2 WAR · value $18M − salary $1M = +$17M272028: 2.2 WAR · value $16M − salary $1M = +$16M282029: 2.1 WAR · value $14M − salary $4M = +$10M292030: 2.0 WAR · value $13M − salary $6M = +$6M302031: 1.8 WAR · value $11M − salary $8M = +$3M312032: beyond projection horizon322033: beyond projection horizon332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon3710.3$20M+$50M
69
▸
Cal Raleigh
SEA · C · age 30
203/307/437 · 23 HR · 2 SB · 2.6W avg over 5yr ctrl
2027: 4.0 WAR · value $44M − salary $18M = +$26M272028: 3.1 WAR · value $26M − salary $16M = +$11M282029: 2.6 WAR · value $18M − salary $14M = +$4M292030: 2.1 WAR · value $13M − salary $13M = +$1M302031: 1.4 WAR · value $8M − salary $0M = +$8M312032: beyond projection horizon322033: beyond projection horizon332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon3713.2$60M+$42M
70
▸
Travis Bazzana
CLE · 2B · age 24
235/331/387 · 14 HR · 19 SB · 1.8W avg over 6yr ctrl
2027: 1.9 WAR · value $15M − salary $1M = +$14M272028: 2.1 WAR · value $16M − salary $1M = +$15M282029: 2.0 WAR · value $14M − salary $1M = +$13M292030: 1.8 WAR · value $11M − salary $4M = +$8M302031: 1.6 WAR · value $9M − salary $5M = +$4M312032: 1.3 WAR · value $7M − salary $6M = +$1M322033: beyond projection horizon332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon3710.7$17M+$54M
71
▸
Fernando Tatis Jr.
SD · RF · age 28
267/341/441 · 21 HR · 14 SB · 3.2W avg over 8yr ctrl
2027: 5.2 WAR · value $62M − salary $24M = +$38M272028: 4.4 WAR · value $48M − salary $22M = +$26M282029: 4.0 WAR · value $38M − salary $20M = +$18M292030: 3.5 WAR · value $28M − salary $18M = +$10M302031: 2.9 WAR · value $19M − salary $16M = +$3M312032: 1.7 WAR · value $9M − salary $14M = $-5M322033: 0.8 WAR · value $2M − salary $13M = $-11M332034: 0.0 WAR · value $0M − salary $12M = $-12M342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon3722.5$138M+$77M
72
▸
Miguel Vargas
CWS · 3B · age 27
244/349/441 · 21 HR · 13 SB · 2.8W avg over 3yr ctrl
2027: 3.0 WAR · value $27M − salary $6M = +$21M272028: 2.8 WAR · value $22M − salary $9M = +$13M282029: 2.5 WAR · value $17M − salary $11M = +$6M292030: beyond projection horizon302031: beyond projection horizon312032: beyond projection horizon322033: beyond projection horizon332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon378.3$26M+$39M
73
▸
Max Clark
DET · CF · age 22
258/334/409 · 15 HR · 23 SB · 2.2W avg over 6yr ctrl
2027: 0.8 WAR · value $3M − salary $1M = +$2M272028: 2.2 WAR · value $16M − salary $1M = +$16M282029: 2.5 WAR · value $17M − salary $1M = +$17M292030: 2.7 WAR · value $18M − salary $6M = +$12M302031: 2.7 WAR · value $17M − salary $9M = +$7M312032: 2.5 WAR · value $14M − salary $13M = +$1M322033: beyond projection horizon332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon3713.4$30M+$50M
74
▸
Drew Rasmussen
TB · P · age 32
126 IP · 3.29 ERA · 25% K · 3.3W avg over 1yr ctrl
2027: 3.3 WAR · value $32M − salary $5M = +$26M272028: beyond projection horizon282029: beyond projection horizon292030: beyond projection horizon302031: beyond projection horizon312032: beyond projection horizon322033: beyond projection horizon332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon373.3$5M+$36M
75
▸
Michael Arroyo
SEA · SS · age 22
259/335/421 · 17 HR · 14 SB · 1.9W avg over 6yr ctrl
2027: 1.0 WAR · value $8M − salary $1M = +$7M272028: 1.5 WAR · value $11M − salary $1M = +$10M282029: 2.1 WAR · value $14M − salary $1M = +$14M292030: 2.3 WAR · value $15M − salary $6M = +$9M302031: 2.4 WAR · value $14M − salary $9M = +$5M312032: 2.2 WAR · value $12M − salary $12M = +$0M322033: beyond projection horizon332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon3711.5$29M+$43M
76
▸
Walbert Urena
LAA · P · age 23
90 IP · 4.00 ERA · 25% K · 1.4W avg over 6yr ctrl
2027: 1.7 WAR · value $14M − salary $1M = +$13M272028: 1.7 WAR · value $13M − salary $1M = +$12M282029: 1.8 WAR · value $12M − salary $1M = +$12M292030: 1.2 WAR · value $8M − salary $2M = +$6M302031: 1.1 WAR · value $6M − salary $3M = +$4M312032: 1.0 WAR · value $5M − salary $3M = +$2M322033: beyond projection horizon332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon378.5$11M+$48M
77
▸
Daylen Lile
WSH · LF · age 24
263/317/444 · 16 HR · 28 SB · 1.9W avg over 5yr ctrl
2027: 1.6 WAR · value $13M − salary $1M = +$12M272028: 2.1 WAR · value $16M − salary $1M = +$15M282029: 2.1 WAR · value $14M − salary $4M = +$10M292030: 1.9 WAR · value $12M − salary $6M = +$6M302031: 1.6 WAR · value $9M − salary $7M = +$2M312032: beyond projection horizon322033: beyond projection horizon332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon379.3$18M+$45M
78
▸
Bubba Chandler
PIT · P · age 24
106 IP · 4.09 ERA · 25% K · 1.6W avg over 5yr ctrl
2027: 1.8 WAR · value $14M − salary $1M = +$14M272028: 1.9 WAR · value $14M − salary $1M = +$13M282029: 1.9 WAR · value $13M − salary $4M = +$9M292030: 1.4 WAR · value $9M − salary $4M = +$5M302031: 1.2 WAR · value $7M − salary $5M = +$2M312032: beyond projection horizon322033: beyond projection horizon332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon378.2$14M+$44M
79
▸
Wilyer Abreu
BOS · RF · age 28
245/320/445 · 21 HR · 6 SB · 2.6W avg over 3yr ctrl
2027: 2.9 WAR · value $26M − salary $6M = +$20M272028: 2.6 WAR · value $20M − salary $8M = +$12M282029: 2.2 WAR · value $15M − salary $10M = +$5M292030: beyond projection horizon302031: beyond projection horizon312032: beyond projection horizon322033: beyond projection horizon332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon377.7$24M+$35M
80
▸
William Contreras
MIL · C · age 29
269/348/427 · 13 HR · 3 SB · 3.1W avg over 1yr ctrl
2027: 3.1 WAR · value $29M − salary $14M = +$15M272028: beyond projection horizon282029: beyond projection horizon292030: beyond projection horizon302031: beyond projection horizon312032: beyond projection horizon322033: beyond projection horizon332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon373.1$14M+$24M
81
▸
Ethan Salas
SD · C · age 21
256/320/404 · 11 HR · 11 SB · 1.8W avg over 6yr ctrl
2027: 1.0 WAR · value $8M − salary $1M = +$7M272028: 1.2 WAR · value $9M − salary $1M = +$8M282029: 1.8 WAR · value $12M − salary $1M = +$12M292030: 2.1 WAR · value $13M − salary $4M = +$9M302031: 2.3 WAR · value $14M − salary $7M = +$6M312032: 2.3 WAR · value $13M − salary $10M = +$3M322033: beyond projection horizon332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon3710.7$24M+$43M
82
▸
Murf Gray
PIT · 3B · age 23
265/341/467 · 24 HR · 6 SB · 2.0W avg over 6yr ctrl
2027: still in MiLB272028: 1.3 WAR · value $10M − salary $1M = +$9M282029: 2.0 WAR · value $14M − salary $1M = +$13M292030: 2.3 WAR · value $15M − salary $1M = +$14M302031: 2.3 WAR · value $14M − salary $5M = +$9M312032: 2.2 WAR · value $12M − salary $7M = +$5M322033: 1.9 WAR · value $10M − salary $8M = +$2M332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon3712.0$21M+$50M
83
▸
Samuel Basallo
BAL · C · age 22
234/305/444 · 22 HR · 1 SB · 1.8W avg over 9yr ctrl
2027: 1.7 WAR · value $14M − salary $8M = +$5M272028: 1.7 WAR · value $13M − salary $8M = +$5M282029: 1.9 WAR · value $13M − salary $7M = +$6M292030: 2.0 WAR · value $13M − salary $6M = +$7M302031: 2.0 WAR · value $12M − salary $5M = +$6M312032: 2.0 WAR · value $11M − salary $5M = +$6M322033: 1.8 WAR · value $9M − salary $4M = +$5M332034: 1.6 WAR · value $8M − salary $0M = +$8M342035: 1.4 WAR · value $6M − salary $0M = +$6M352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon3716.1$44M+$48M
84
▸
JoJo Parker
TOR · SS · age 20
256/344/433 · 19 HR · 15 SB · 2.5W avg over 6yr ctrl
2027: still in MiLB272028: still in MiLB282029: 1.8 WAR · value $12M − salary $1M = +$12M292030: 2.4 WAR · value $15M − salary $1M = +$15M302031: 2.6 WAR · value $16M − salary $1M = +$15M312032: 2.7 WAR · value $16M − salary $5M = +$11M322033: 2.8 WAR · value $15M − salary $7M = +$8M332034: 2.7 WAR · value $13M − salary $9M = +$4M342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon3715.0$23M+$60M
85
▸
Gunnar Henderson
BAL · SS · age 26
256/335/452 · 23 HR · 24 SB · 3.5W avg over 2yr ctrl
2027: 3.6 WAR · value $37M − salary $12M = +$25M272028: 3.3 WAR · value $29M − salary $17M = +$12M282029: beyond projection horizon292030: beyond projection horizon302031: beyond projection horizon312032: beyond projection horizon322033: beyond projection horizon332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon376.9$29M+$36M
86
▸
Zach Neto
LAA · SS · age 26
238/315/440 · 26 HR · 24 SB · 2.6W avg over 3yr ctrl
2027: 3.0 WAR · value $27M − salary $6M = +$21M272028: 2.5 WAR · value $19M − salary $10M = +$9M282029: 2.3 WAR · value $16M − salary $12M = +$3M292030: beyond projection horizon302031: beyond projection horizon312032: beyond projection horizon322033: beyond projection horizon332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon377.8$28M+$33M
87
▸
Joseph Dzierwa
BAL · P · age 23
125 IP · 3.70 ERA · 24% K · 1.9W avg over 6yr ctrl
2027: still in MiLB272028: 1.4 WAR · value $10M − salary $1M = +$10M282029: 1.8 WAR · value $12M − salary $1M = +$12M292030: 2.1 WAR · value $13M − salary $1M = +$13M302031: 2.2 WAR · value $13M − salary $3M = +$10M312032: 2.1 WAR · value $12M − salary $5M = +$7M322033: 1.8 WAR · value $9M − salary $6M = +$4M332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon3711.4$16M+$54M
88
▸
Melvin Hernandez
MIL · P · age 21
132 IP · 3.80 ERA · 22% K · 2.2W avg over 6yr ctrl
2027: still in MiLB272028: 1.0 WAR · value $7M − salary $1M = +$7M282029: 1.9 WAR · value $13M − salary $1M = +$12M292030: 2.3 WAR · value $15M − salary $1M = +$14M302031: 2.5 WAR · value $15M − salary $4M = +$11M312032: 2.7 WAR · value $16M − salary $6M = +$10M322033: 2.6 WAR · value $14M − salary $8M = +$6M332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon3713.0$19M+$60M
89
▸
Cam Caminiti
ATL · P · age 20
127 IP · 4.00 ERA · 25% K · 1.9W avg over 6yr ctrl
2027: still in MiLB272028: 0.8 WAR · value $3M − salary $1M = +$2M282029: 1.6 WAR · value $11M − salary $1M = +$10M292030: 2.0 WAR · value $13M − salary $1M = +$12M302031: 2.2 WAR · value $13M − salary $3M = +$10M312032: 2.3 WAR · value $13M − salary $5M = +$7M322033: 2.4 WAR · value $12M − salary $7M = +$5M332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon3711.3$18M+$44M
90
▸
Andrew Fischer
MIL · 3B · age 23
238/335/484 · 30 HR · 7 SB · 1.9W avg over 6yr ctrl
2027: still in MiLB272028: 1.3 WAR · value $10M − salary $1M = +$9M282029: 2.0 WAR · value $14M − salary $1M = +$13M292030: 2.2 WAR · value $14M − salary $1M = +$13M302031: 2.2 WAR · value $13M − salary $4M = +$9M312032: 2.0 WAR · value $11M − salary $6M = +$5M322033: 1.7 WAR · value $9M − salary $7M = +$2M332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon3711.4$19M+$48M
91
▸
Eduardo Quintero
LAD · OF · age 21
245/347/415 · 17 HR · 22 SB · 1.7W avg over 6yr ctrl
2027: still in MiLB272028: 1.0 WAR · value $7M − salary $1M = +$7M282029: 1.6 WAR · value $11M − salary $1M = +$10M292030: 1.8 WAR · value $11M − salary $1M = +$11M302031: 1.9 WAR · value $11M − salary $4M = +$7M312032: 1.9 WAR · value $10M − salary $6M = +$4M322033: 1.8 WAR · value $9M − salary $8M = +$1M332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon3710.0$20M+$39M
92
▸
Wyatt Langford
TEX · LF · age 25
247/340/423 · 16 HR · 24 SB · 2.5W avg over 3yr ctrl
2027: 2.6 WAR · value $21M − salary $5M = +$16M272028: 2.5 WAR · value $19M − salary $9M = +$10M282029: 2.3 WAR · value $16M − salary $12M = +$4M292030: beyond projection horizon302031: beyond projection horizon312032: beyond projection horizon322033: beyond projection horizon332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon377.4$26M+$29M
93
▸
Caden Scarborough
TEX · P · age 22
126 IP · 3.94 ERA · 25% K · 1.8W avg over 6yr ctrl
2027: still in MiLB272028: 0.9 WAR · value $3M − salary $1M = +$3M282029: 1.6 WAR · value $11M − salary $1M = +$10M292030: 2.0 WAR · value $13M − salary $1M = +$12M302031: 2.2 WAR · value $13M − salary $3M = +$10M312032: 2.2 WAR · value $12M − salary $5M = +$7M322033: 2.0 WAR · value $10M − salary $6M = +$4M332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon3710.9$16M+$43M
94
▸
Nick Kurtz
OAK · 1B · age 24
241/359/487 · 16 HR · 4 SB · 2.1W avg over 4yr ctrl
2027: 0.9 WAR · value $4M − salary $1M = +$3M272028: 2.6 WAR · value $20M − salary $4M = +$16M282029: 2.5 WAR · value $17M − salary $6M = +$11M292030: 2.3 WAR · value $15M − salary $8M = +$7M302031: beyond projection horizon312032: beyond projection horizon322033: beyond projection horizon332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon378.3$19M+$33M
95
▸
Ty Johnson
TB · P · age 25
102 IP · 3.74 ERA · 28% K · 1.6W avg over 6yr ctrl
2027: 1.3 WAR · value $10M − salary $1M = +$10M272028: 2.0 WAR · value $15M − salary $1M = +$14M282029: 1.9 WAR · value $13M − salary $1M = +$12M292030: 1.7 WAR · value $11M − salary $2M = +$9M302031: 1.5 WAR · value $9M − salary $2M = +$6M312032: 1.2 WAR · value $7M − salary $2M = +$4M322033: beyond projection horizon332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon379.6$9M+$56M
96
▸
Jared Jones
PIT · P · age 25
106 IP · 3.64 ERA · 31% K · 2.3W avg over 3yr ctrl
2027: 2.4 WAR · value $19M − salary $5M = +$14M272028: 2.2 WAR · value $16M − salary $8M = +$8M282029: 2.2 WAR · value $15M − salary $10M = +$5M292030: beyond projection horizon302031: beyond projection horizon312032: beyond projection horizon322033: beyond projection horizon332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon376.8$23M+$28M
97
▸
Kelvis Salcedo
DET · P · age 21
128 IP · 3.89 ERA · 27% K · 2.0W avg over 6yr ctrl
2027: still in MiLB272028: 0.9 WAR · value $3M − salary $1M = +$3M282029: 1.7 WAR · value $12M − salary $1M = +$11M292030: 2.1 WAR · value $13M − salary $1M = +$13M302031: 2.3 WAR · value $14M − salary $4M = +$10M312032: 2.4 WAR · value $13M − salary $6M = +$8M322033: 2.4 WAR · value $12M − salary $7M = +$5M332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon3711.8$18M+$46M
98
▸
Gavin Williams
CLE · P · age 28
138 IP · 4.08 ERA · 30% K · 2.1W avg over 3yr ctrl
2027: 2.7 WAR · value $23M − salary $5M = +$17M272028: 2.0 WAR · value $15M − salary $7M = +$8M282029: 1.5 WAR · value $10M − salary $6M = +$4M292030: beyond projection horizon302031: beyond projection horizon312032: beyond projection horizon322033: beyond projection horizon332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon376.2$18M+$29M
99
▸
Elmer Rodríguez
NYY · P · age 23
124 IP · 4.16 ERA · 23% K · 1.7W avg over 6yr ctrl
2027: 1.5 WAR · value $12M − salary $1M = +$11M272028: 1.6 WAR · value $12M − salary $1M = +$11M282029: 1.8 WAR · value $12M − salary $1M = +$12M292030: 1.8 WAR · value $11M − salary $5M = +$7M302031: 1.8 WAR · value $11M − salary $7M = +$4M312032: 1.6 WAR · value $9M − salary $9M = +$0M322033: beyond projection horizon332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon3710.1$22M+$45M
100
▸
Riley Greene
DET · LF · age 26
264/342/484 · 26 HR · 3 SB · 3.2W avg over 2yr ctrl
2027: 3.2 WAR · value $30M − salary $11M = +$19M272028: 3.2 WAR · value $28M − salary $16M = +$12M282029: beyond projection horizon292030: beyond projection horizon302031: beyond projection horizon312032: beyond projection horizon322033: beyond projection horizon332034: beyond projection horizon342035: beyond projection horizon352036: beyond projection horizon362037: beyond projection horizon376.4$27M+$31M