Gerrit Cole — OGILVIE

Gerrit Cole P New York Yankees

+1.5 WAR

INJURED · Injured 15-Day (D15)

Age 35 RHP 6'4" / 220 lbs MLB Svc 12.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 2.5 · 2027

ERA3.40

FIP3.75

xFIP3.99

SIERA3.79

K%25.4%

BB%7.3%

K-BB%18.2%

IP155

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.5peak

2027

K†6565

FB Velo

p7095.9

Whiff%

p4724.8%

p6725.4%

xwOBA vs

p620.300

FB+4.2 (46%)

SL+1.3 (14%)

CU (19%)

CT (16%)

CH-2.2 (4%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2015	24	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	32	32	208	832	202	43	11	24.3%	5.2%	1.2%	2.60	2.39	+6.9
2016	25	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	23	23	124	534	110	33	7	19.4%	6.5%	1.6%	3.63	3.15	+3.0
2017	26	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	33	33	203	849	196	54	31	23.1%	6.4%	3.9%	4.26	4.11	+2.7
2018	27	MLB	Houston Astros	32	32	200	799	276	64	19	34.5%	8.0%	2.3%	2.88	2.45	+6.5
2019	28	MLB	Houston Astros	33	33	212	817	326	48	29	39.9%	5.9%	3.4%	2.50	2.36	+7.1
2020	29	MLB	New York Yankees	12	12	73	288	94	17	14	32.6%	5.9%	3.6%	2.84	3.07	+1.6
2021	30	MLB	New York Yankees	30	30	181	726	243	41	24	33.5%	5.6%	3.3%	3.23	2.81	+5.1
2022	31	MLB	New York Yankees	33	33	201	793	257	50	33	32.4%	6.3%	4.0%	3.50	3.35	+4.4
2023	32	MLB	New York Yankees	33	33	209	821	222	48	20	27.0%	5.8%	2.2%	2.63	2.77	+6.0
2024	33	MLB	New York Yankees	20	20	107	434	118	28	12	25.4%	7.2%	2.7%	3.10	3.37	+2.3
▸ 2026 Season
2026	35	MLB	PIT	14	14	77	326	90	24	9	27.5%	7.3%	2.7%	3.33	3.58	+1.3
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	36	MLB	PIT	26	26	145	611	163	46	17	26.7%	7.5%	2.9%	3.58	3.75	+2.5
2028	37	MLB	PIT	24	24	134	566	147	44	17	25.9%	7.8%	3.0%	3.78	3.92	+2.1
2029	38	MLB	PIT	22	22	123	521	131	42	16	25.1%	8.1%	3.1%	3.98	4.11	+1.7
2030	39	MLB	PIT	21	21	114	479	116	40	16	24.2%	8.4%	3.3%	4.17	4.29	+1.3
2031	40	MLB	PIT	19	19	104	441	103	38	15	23.4%	8.7%	3.4%	4.36	4.48	+1.0
2032	41	MLB	PIT	17	17	96	405	91	37	14	22.5%	9.0%	3.5%	4.54	4.67	+0.6
2033	42	MLB	PIT	16	16	88	373	81	35	14	21.7%	9.3%	3.7%	4.73	4.85	+0.3
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			281	281	1719	6893	2030	431	194	29.4%	6.3%	2.8%	3.10	2.95	+45.7
/ 200 IP	—			33	33	200	802	236	50	23	29.4%	6.3%	2.8%	3.10	2.95	+5.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gerrit Cole (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.58	27.5%	7.3%	2.7%	—	3.92	26.0%	18.1%	402	+0.34	—	—	—
Jumbo Diaz R 2026 · 2.97 FIP	35	SW	2.97	25.0%	7.7%	1.8%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	284	64
Santiago Casilla R 2026 · 3.50 FIP	35	SW	3.50	25.4%	8.6%	2.6%	.290	3.90	22.4%	12.7%	161	+0.40	3.50	219	63
Joaquín Benoit R 2029 · 3.55 FIP	38	SW	3.55	24.8%	8.7%	2.6%	.179	4.12	23.5%	12.9%	98	+0.57	3.55	164	61
Joakim Soria R 2026 · 3.46 FIP	35	SW	3.46	28.4%	6.8%	3.5%	.246	3.43	25.1%	17.7%	60	-0.03	2.00	380	61
Fernando Rodney R 2029 · 4.17 FIP	38	SW	4.17	20.9%	9.4%	3.0%	.272	3.38	26.2%	15.2%	185	-0.79	2.67	295	57
Luis Ayala R 2028 · 3.03 FIP	37	SW	3.03	19.7%	5.0%	1.7%	.270	3.25	12.1%	5.9%	57	+0.22	3.01	119	57
Tony Pena Jr. R 2026 · 2.89 FIP	35	SW	2.89	21.5%	4.3%	1.9%	.249	3.43	10.9%	6.6%	22	+0.54	2.80	128	57
Daniel Bard R 2026 · 2.86 FIP	35	SU	2.86	25.5%	7.5%	1.7%	.290	3.60	25.3%	12.0%	175	+0.74	2.45	200	56
Dustin McGowan R 2026 · 4.45 FIP	35	SW	4.45	19.4%	6.7%	3.9%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	208	56
Ryan Madson R 2026 · 3.98 FIP	35	SW	3.98	18.1%	6.3%	2.9%	.284	2.39	27.2%	22.6%	112	-1.59	1.43	240	56
Matt Bush R 2027 · 3.58 FIP	36	SW	3.58	30.3%	6.6%	4.0%	.224	3.83	26.6%	17.3%	36	+0.25	2.88	249	55
Josh Lowey R 2025 · 3.45 FIP	34	SW	3.45	22.4%	6.8%	2.5%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	2.25	426	55
Huascar Brazobán R 2026 · 3.72 FIP	35	SW	3.72	21.7%	9.0%	2.4%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	303	55
Brandon Morrow R 2025 · 2.85 FIP	34	SU	2.85	25.4%	7.4%	1.8%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.67	186	55
Josh Lueke R 2025 · 4.14 FIP	34	SU	4.14	20.4%	6.4%	3.6%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.32	107	55
Carlos Torres R 2026 · 2.89 FIP	35	SW	2.89	22.3%	7.3%	1.4%	.248	4.29	17.8%	8.8%	62	+1.40	2.89	326	54
Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.11 FIP	35	SW	4.11	18.6%	6.6%	3.2%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	186	54
Yoshihisa Hirano R 2026 · 3.68 FIP	35	SW	3.68	26.2%	8.6%	3.1%	.303	4.90	17.5%	4.8%	12	+1.22	3.43	132	53
John Axford R 2026 · 3.62 FIP	35	SW	3.62	23.2%	9.0%	2.4%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.28	197	53
Adam Ottavino R 2026 · 3.46 FIP	35	SW	3.46	25.7%	12.0%	1.8%	.299	3.15	27.7%	19.7%	183	-0.31	2.15	488	52

Contract

CONFIRMED · hand-curated extension

Status FA

MLB Debut 2013

Service 12.645 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Ext / FA-deal	$36M	+1.5	$12M	-$24M
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$36M	+2.5	$21M	-$15M
2028	Ext / FA-deal	$36M	+2.1	$18M	-$18M
Totals		$108M		$50M	-$58M

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$58M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.