Gerrit Cole — OGILVIE

Gerrit Cole P New York Yankees

Age 36 RHP 6'4" / 220 lbs MLB Svc 12.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 1.8 · 2027

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 105 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10597vR 88

ERA3.90

FIP3.97

K%25.8%

BB%5.2%

K-BB%20.6%

ROS IP105

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 105 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$58M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—70

STUF6565

CTRL6065

CMD6065

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8296.8

Whiff%

p2221.3%

p6625.2%

xwOBA vs

p620.300

FB+4.2 (46%)

SL+1.3 (14%)

CU (19%)

CT (16%)

CH-2.2 (4%)

Contract CONFIRMED · hand-curated extension

Status FA

MLB Debut 2013

Service 12.645 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027ROS	Ext	$36M	+1.1	$9M	-$27M
2028	Ext	$36M	+0.6	$2M	-$30M
Totals		$72M		$11M	-$57M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2013	22	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	19	19	117	469	100	28	7	100%	6.2	21.3%	6.0%	15.4%	1.6%	3.22	2.94	+2.9
2013	22	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	19	19	117	469	100	28	7	100%	6.2	21.3%	6.0%	15.4%	1.5%	3.22	2.89	+3.0
2014	23	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	22	22	138	571	138	39	11	100%	6.3	24.2%	6.8%	17.3%	2.1%	3.65	3.07	+3.2
2014	23	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	22	22	138	571	138	39	11	100%	6.3	24.2%	6.8%	17.3%	1.9%	3.65	2.98	+3.3
2015	24	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	32	32	208	832	202	43	11	100%	6.5	24.3%	5.2%	19.1%	1.4%	2.60	2.49	+6.6
2015	24	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	32	32	208	832	202	43	11	100%	6.5	24.3%	5.2%	19.1%	1.3%	2.60	2.47	+6.6
2016	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	124	534	110	33	7	100%	5.4	19.4%	6.5%	12.8%	1.5%	3.63	3.11	+2.8
2016	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	124	534	110	33	7	100%	5.4	20.6%	6.2%	14.4%	1.3%	3.63	2.86	+3.2
2017	26	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	33	33	203	849	196	54	31	100%	6.2	23.1%	6.4%	16.7%	3.9%	4.26	4.12	+1.9
2017	26	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	33	33	203	849	196	54	31	100%	6.2	23.1%	6.4%	16.7%	3.7%	4.26	3.95	+2.3
2018	27	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	32	32	200	799	276	64	19	100%	6.3	34.5%	8.0%	26.5%	2.4%	2.88	2.54	+6.1
2018	27	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	32	32	200	799	276	64	19	100%	6.3	34.5%	8.0%	26.5%	2.4%	2.88	2.54	+6.2
2019	28	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	33	33	212	817	326	48	29	100%	6.4	39.9%	5.9%	34.0%	3.6%	2.50	2.48	+6.7
2019	28	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	33	33	212	817	326	48	29	100%	6.4	39.9%	5.9%	34.0%	3.5%	2.50	2.48	+6.7
2020	29	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	12	12	73	288	94	17	14	100%	6.1	32.6%	5.9%	26.7%	4.6%	2.84	3.59	+1.2
2020	29	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	12	12	73	288	94	17	14	100%	6.1	32.6%	5.9%	26.7%	4.9%	2.84	3.72	+1.0
2021	30	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	30	30	181	726	243	41	24	100%	6.0	33.5%	5.6%	27.8%	3.1%	3.23	2.69	+5.1
2021	30	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	30	30	181	726	243	41	24	100%	6.0	33.5%	5.6%	27.8%	3.3%	3.23	2.82	+4.8
2022	31	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	33	33	201	793	257	50	33	100%	6.1	32.4%	6.3%	26.1%	3.9%	3.50	3.30	+4.0
2022	31	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	33	33	201	793	257	50	33	100%	6.1	32.4%	6.3%	26.1%	4.2%	3.50	3.42	+3.6
2023	32	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	33	33	209	821	222	48	20	100%	6.3	27.0%	5.8%	21.2%	2.3%	2.63	2.81	+5.6
2023	32	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	33	33	209	821	222	48	20	100%	6.3	27.0%	5.8%	21.2%	2.4%	2.63	2.91	+5.3
2024	33	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	20	107	434	118	28	12	100%	5.4	25.4%	7.2%	18.2%	2.6%	3.10	3.32	+2.1
2024	33	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	20	107	434	118	28	12	100%	5.4	25.4%	7.2%	18.2%	2.6%	3.10	3.32	+2.1
2024	33	MIX RAW	3 levels	20	20	107	434	118	28	12	100%	5.4	27.2%	6.5%	20.7%	2.8%	3.10	3.14	+2.4
2026	35	MIX MLE	4 levels	28	28	156	635	159	28	28	100%	5.6	24.8%	4.7%	20.0%	4.2%	3.81	3.92	+1.8
2026	35	MIX MLE	4 levels	28	28	156	635	159	28	28	100%	5.6	24.8%	4.7%	20.0%	4.2%	3.81	3.92	+1.8
2026	35	MIX RAW	4 levels	28	28	156	635	159	28	28	100%	5.6	25.0%	4.4%	20.6%	4.4%	3.81	3.93	+1.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			339	339	2081	8380	2382	518	239	100%	6.1	28.4%	6.2%	22.2%	2.9%	3.20	3.05	+48.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	36	MLB	NYY	17	17	105	443	114	23	16	100%	6.2	25.8%	5.2%	20.6%	3.7%	3.90	3.97	+1.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	37	MLB MLE	NYY	15	15	91	386	95	22	16	100%	6.1	24.7%	5.8%	18.9%	4.1%	4.18	4.37	+0.6
2029	38	MLB MLE	NYY	13	13	79	332	85	19	15	100%	6.0	25.6%	5.7%	19.9%	4.5%	4.39	4.53	+0.3
2028	37	MLB CTX	NYY	15	15	91	384	95	22	17	100%	6.1	24.7%	5.8%	18.9%	4.4%	4.33	4.52	+0.6
2029	38	MLB CTX	NYY	13	13	79	334	85	19	16	100%	6.1	25.6%	5.7%	19.9%	4.8%	4.56	4.70	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		367	367	2251	9098	2562	559	272	100%	6.1	28.2%	6.1%	22.0%	3.0%	3.30	3.14	+49.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	808	228	50	24	100%	6.1	28.2%	6.1%	22.0%	3.0%	3.30	3.14	+4.4
Career	—	MLE		350	350	2130	8568	2425	528	246	100%	6.1	28.3%	6.2%	22.1%	2.9%	3.20	3.06	+49.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		33	33	200	804	228	50	23	100%	6.1	28.3%	6.2%	22.1%	2.9%	3.20	3.06	+4.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gerrit Cole (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.97	25.8%	5.2%	3.7%	—	4.44	25.1%	19.3%	170	+0.47	—	—	—
Yasutomo Kubo R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	38	SP	3.98	20.4%	4.7%	3.6%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	152	67
Hiroki Kuroda R 2011 · 3.64 FIP	36	SP	3.64	19.2%	5.1%	2.8%	.282	3.50	18.2%	13.3%	620	-0.14	2.96	1,319	53
Yoanner Negrin R 2019 · 3.87 FIP	35	SP	3.87	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.15	485	51
Kenshin Kawakami R 2010 · 4.06 FIP	35	SP	4.06	15.1%	5.6%	2.8%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	3.97	244	49
Jarrett Grube R 2017 · 4.41 FIP	35	SP	4.41	15.8%	8.1%	3.0%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.75	393	49
Jorge Martinez R 2019 · 3.71 FIP	34	SP	3.71	16.3%	5.7%	2.3%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	214	49
Frankie De La Cruz R 2019 · 4.38 FIP	35	SP-	4.38	16.2%	8.0%	3.0%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	2.87	262	43
Walter Silva R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	38	SP	4.15	14.8%	7.4%	2.5%	.311	3.91	10.4%	3.7%	209	-0.24	3.67	453	42
Angel Castro R 2017 · 3.51 FIP	34	SP	3.51	14.5%	7.4%	1.3%	.332	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	292	40
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2021 · 4.20 FIP	36	SP-	4.20	15.8%	5.6%	3.1%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.97	567	37
Jesse Estrada R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	35	SP-	4.34	14.4%	6.6%	2.9%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	257	34
Lorenzo Barcelo R 2015 · 3.28 FIP	37	SP	3.28	13.2%	3.6%	1.5%	.345	3.48	12.8%	11.7%	45	+0.20	3.14	259	34
Jose Contreras R 2008 · 4.08 FIP	36	SP	4.08	13.4%	6.7%	2.3%	.291	3.52	20.1%	12.1%	202	-0.56	2.43	1,279	34
Pablo Ortega R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	38	SP	4.52	8.6%	7.3%	2.2%	.291	4.24	11.5%	6.0%	236	-0.28	4.01	375	32
David Buchanan R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	35	SP-	4.26	14.7%	6.5%	2.9%	.337	5.56	12.2%	4.1%	29	+1.30	3.88	560	31
Steve Sparks R 2001 · 4.14 FIP	36	SP	4.14	11.8%	6.4%	2.2%	.284	4.69	11.2%	3.7%	417	+0.55	3.78	1,320	31
Jon Leicester R 2015 · 3.76 FIP	36	SP	3.76	12.3%	5.9%	1.7%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	113	31
Jonathan Castellanos R 2017 · 4.91 FIP	35	SP	4.91	8.4%	9.2%	2.5%	.314	5.24	11.0%	2.0%	67	+0.33	3.40	394	29
Chris Smith R 2017 · 5.08 FIP	36	SP-	5.08	15.6%	7.5%	4.3%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	477	27
Juan Delgadillo R 2017 · 4.47 FIP	34	SP	4.47	10.9%	6.2%	2.7%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	4.47	143	24

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 497 starter careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	11.8	147	28.0%	6.2%	1.16	3.31
David Price ('22)	10.7	165	23.6%	6.4%	0.93	3.32
Yu Darvish ('25)	8.9	137	28.4%	7.7%	1.17	3.65
Johan Santana ('12)	10.1	169	24.1%	6.9%	0.98	3.20
Stephen Strasburg ('22)	7.3	134	28.9%	6.6%	0.91	3.24
Corey Kluber ('23)	8.2	149	25.8%	5.5%	0.97	3.44
Pablo López ('25)	4.8	121	24.9%	6.3%	1.07	3.81