Gerrit Cole — OGILVIE

Gerrit Cole P New York Yankees

Age 35 RHP 6'4" / 220 lbs MLB Svc 12.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 4.3 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION144 act + 15 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9688vR 80

ERA3.26

FIP3.20

K%25.2%

BB%5.2%

K-BB%19.9%

ROS IP15

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 159 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$60M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—65

STUF6565

CTRL6060

CMD6060

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8496.9

Whiff%

p2421.6%

p6324.6%

xwOBA vs

p590.303

FB+4.2 (46%)

SL+1.3 (14%)

CU (19%)

CT (16%)

CH-2.2 (4%)

Contract CONFIRMED · hand-curated extension

Status FA

MLB Debut 2013

Service 12.645 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$3M	+0.2	$0.6M	-$2M
2027	Ext	$36M	+1.2	$9M	-$24M
2028	Ext	$36M	+0.5	$2M	-$27M
Totals		$75M		$11M	-$53M

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$53M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	24	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	32	32	208	832	202	43	11	100%	6.5	24.3%	5.2%	19.1%	1.4%	2.60	2.49	+6.6
2015	24	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	32	32	208	832	202	43	11	100%	6.5	24.3%	5.2%	19.1%	1.3%	2.60	2.47	+6.6
2016	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	124	534	110	33	7	100%	5.4	19.4%	6.5%	12.8%	1.5%	3.63	3.11	+2.8
2016	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	124	534	110	33	7	100%	5.4	20.6%	6.2%	14.4%	1.3%	3.63	2.86	+3.2
2017	26	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	33	33	203	849	196	54	31	100%	6.2	23.1%	6.4%	16.7%	3.9%	4.26	4.12	+1.9
2017	26	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	33	33	203	849	196	54	31	100%	6.2	23.1%	6.4%	16.7%	3.7%	4.26	3.95	+2.3
2018	27	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	32	32	200	799	276	64	19	100%	6.3	34.5%	8.0%	26.5%	2.4%	2.88	2.54	+6.1
2018	27	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	32	32	200	799	276	64	19	100%	6.3	34.5%	8.0%	26.5%	2.4%	2.88	2.54	+6.2
2019	28	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	33	33	212	817	326	48	29	100%	6.4	39.9%	5.9%	34.0%	3.6%	2.50	2.48	+6.7
2019	28	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	33	33	212	817	326	48	29	100%	6.4	39.9%	5.9%	34.0%	3.5%	2.50	2.48	+6.7
2020	29	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	12	12	73	288	94	17	14	100%	6.1	32.6%	5.9%	26.7%	4.6%	2.84	3.59	+1.2
2020	29	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	12	12	73	288	94	17	14	100%	6.1	32.6%	5.9%	26.7%	4.9%	2.84	3.72	+1.0
2021	30	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	30	30	181	726	243	41	24	100%	6.0	33.5%	5.6%	27.8%	3.1%	3.23	2.69	+5.1
2021	30	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	30	30	181	726	243	41	24	100%	6.0	33.5%	5.6%	27.8%	3.3%	3.23	2.82	+4.8
2022	31	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	33	33	201	793	257	50	33	100%	6.1	32.4%	6.3%	26.1%	3.9%	3.50	3.30	+4.0
2022	31	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	33	33	201	793	257	50	33	100%	6.1	32.4%	6.3%	26.1%	4.2%	3.50	3.42	+3.6
2023	32	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	33	33	209	821	222	48	20	100%	6.3	27.0%	5.8%	21.2%	2.3%	2.63	2.81	+5.6
2023	32	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	33	33	209	821	222	48	20	100%	6.3	27.0%	5.8%	21.2%	2.3%	2.63	2.81	+5.6
2023	32	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	33	33	209	821	222	48	20	100%	6.3	27.0%	5.8%	21.2%	2.4%	2.63	2.91	+5.3
2024	33	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	20	107	434	118	28	12	100%	5.4	25.4%	7.2%	18.2%	2.6%	3.10	3.32	+2.1
2024	33	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	20	107	434	118	28	12	100%	5.4	25.4%	7.2%	18.2%	2.6%	3.10	3.32	+2.1
2024	33	MIX RAW	3 levels	20	20	107	434	118	28	12	100%	5.4	27.2%	6.5%	20.7%	2.8%	3.10	3.14	+2.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			296	296	1814	7296	2130	448	219	100%	6.1	29.2%	6.1%	23.1%	3.0%	3.17	3.06	+41.9
▸ 2026 season
YTD	35	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	26	26	144	591	145	25	26	100%	5.6	24.2%	4.6%	19.6%	4.2%	3.87	3.95	+1.6
YTD	35	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	26	26	144	591	145	25	26	100%	5.6	24.2%	4.6%	19.6%	4.2%	3.87	3.95	+1.6
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	35	A+ RAW	NYY	2	2	9	38	8	0	3	100%	4.3	21.1%	0.0%	21.1%	7.9%	6.23	5.66	—
2026	35	AA RAW	NYY	3	3	15	56	14	2	3	100%	5.0	25.0%	3.6%	21.4%	5.4%	4.80	4.38	—
2026	35	AAA RAW	NYY	1	1	5	22	6	1	0	100%	5.3	27.3%	4.5%	22.7%	0.0%	1.69	1.37	—
2026	35	MLB RAW	NYY	20	20	115	475	117	22	20	100%	5.8	24.6%	4.6%	20.0%	4.2%	3.67	3.92	+1.4
SO FAR	35	MLB RAW	NYY	20	20	115	475	117	22	20	100%	5.8	24.6%	4.6%	20.0%	4.2%	3.67	3.92	+1.4
ROS	35	MLB MLE	NYY	2	2	15	62	15	3	2	100%	7.3	25.2%	5.2%	19.9%	2.8%	3.26	3.20	+0.3
ROS	35	MLB CTX	NYY	2	2	15	63	16	3	2	100%	7.5	25.2%	5.2%	19.9%	3.0%	3.37	3.31	+0.3
2026 TOT	35	MLB MLE	NYY	—	—	159	653	160	28	28	—	—	24.6%	4.3%	20.3%	4.3%	3.81	3.88	+1.9
FULL	35	MLB A+C	NYY	—	—	130	548	160	28	28	—	—	29.3%	5.1%	24.1%	5.1%	4.67	4.07	+1.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	36	MLB MLE	NYY	24	24	145	611	151	36	23	100%	6.0	24.8%	5.9%	18.9%	3.7%	4.05	4.18	+1.2
2028	37	MLB MLE	NYY	21	21	126	533	126	35	22	100%	6.0	23.7%	6.6%	17.1%	4.1%	4.37	4.58	+0.5
2029	38	MLB MLE	NYY	18	18	109	459	103	33	21	100%	6.0	22.5%	7.2%	15.3%	4.6%	4.75	5.01	-0.1
2027	36	MLB CTX	NYY	24	24	145	612	152	36	24	100%	6.0	24.8%	5.9%	18.9%	4.0%	4.19	4.32	+1.2
2028	37	MLB CTX	NYY	21	21	126	532	126	35	23	100%	6.0	23.7%	6.6%	17.1%	4.4%	4.52	4.73	+0.5
2029	38	MLB CTX	NYY	18	18	109	460	104	33	22	100%	6.1	22.5%	7.2%	15.3%	4.9%	4.92	5.18	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		362	362	2208	8961	2526	555	291	100%	6.1	28.2%	6.2%	22.0%	3.2%	3.40	3.29	+44.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	812	229	50	26	100%	6.1	28.2%	6.2%	22.0%	3.2%	3.40	3.29	+4.0
Career	—	MLE		307	307	1863	7484	2172	458	224	100%	6.1	29.0%	6.1%	22.9%	3.0%	3.16	3.07	+43.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		33	33	200	803	233	49	24	100%	6.1	29.0%	6.1%	22.9%	3.0%	3.16	3.07	+3.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gerrit Cole (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.32	27.6%	6.2%	2.5%	—	4.55	23.8%	17.3%	380	+1.23	—	—	—
Charlie Morton R 2019 · 2.52 FIP	35	SP	2.52	30.4%	7.2%	1.9%	.291	3.32	28.1%	20.2%	396	+0.80	2.52	1,534	70
Yasutomo Kubo R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	38	SP	3.98	20.4%	4.7%	3.6%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	152	61
Justin Verlander R 2018 · 2.62 FIP	35	SP	2.62	34.8%	4.4%	3.5%	.268	3.14	35.4%	30.4%	223	+0.52	2.32	1,584	54
Aníbal Sánchez R 2019 · 4.06 FIP	35	SP	4.06	18.8%	6.7%	3.1%	.258	5.04	17.2%	7.8%	135	+0.98	3.49	869	54
A.J. Burnett R 2015 · 3.16 FIP	38	SP	3.16	20.5%	6.7%	1.7%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	164	53
John Lackey R 2015 · 3.51 FIP	36	SP	3.51	19.5%	5.4%	2.5%	.291	4.34	22.3%	15.4%	359	+0.83	3.51	577	52
Yoanner Negrin R 2019 · 3.87 FIP	35	SP	3.87	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.15	485	49
Hisashi Iwakuma R 2016 · 4.15 FIP	35	SP	4.15	17.6%	5.1%	3.4%	.307	6.31	12.5%	3.1%	31	+2.16	3.74	360	48
Josh Roenicke R 2017 · 3.37 FIP	34	SP	3.37	18.0%	5.8%	1.9%	.332	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	283	48
Max Scherzer R 2019 · 2.13 FIP	35	SP	2.13	35.1%	4.5%	2.6%	.314	2.62	32.3%	27.1%	392	+0.50	2.13	1,822	47
Zack Greinke R 2019 · 3.05 FIP	35	SP	3.05	23.1%	3.5%	2.7%	.268	4.12	16.8%	12.1%	375	+1.07	2.56	1,517	47
Jarrett Grube R 2017 · 4.41 FIP	35	SP	4.41	15.8%	8.1%	3.0%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.75	393	45
Lorenzo Barcelo R 2015 · 3.28 FIP	37	SP	3.28	13.2%	3.6%	1.5%	.345	3.48	12.8%	11.7%	45	+0.20	3.28	199	45
Jorge Martinez R 2019 · 3.71 FIP	34	SP	3.71	16.3%	5.7%	2.3%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	214	44
Corey Kluber R 2021 · 3.50 FIP	35	SP	3.50	24.0%	9.7%	2.2%	.303	4.19	19.2%	14.9%	219	+0.69	2.26	1,190	44
Frankie De La Cruz R 2019 · 4.38 FIP	35	SP-	4.38	16.2%	8.0%	3.0%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.77	240	43
Adam Wainwright R 2017 · 4.08 FIP	35	SP	4.08	17.6%	7.5%	2.8%	.319	4.08	20.8%	13.3%	278	+0.00	2.03	1,127	43
Kameron Loe R 2017 · 3.38 FIP	35	SP	3.38	17.1%	8.0%	1.3%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.38	201	43
Colby Lewis R 2015 · 3.89 FIP	35	SP	3.89	16.5%	4.6%	2.9%	.283	4.67	15.5%	9.6%	116	+0.78	3.89	321	43
Josh Lowey R 2019 · 3.45 FIP	34	SP	3.45	22.4%	6.8%	2.5%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	2.22	426	41

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.7	136	24.9%	6.4%	1.40	4.06
Kutter Crawford ('24)	2.0	130	23.9%	7.2%	1.45	4.47
Luis Garcia ('23)	1.7	113	25.5%	7.7%	1.19	3.63
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Mike Minor ('22)	3.8	126	22.3%	7.2%	1.44	4.38
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01
Triston McKenzie ('24)	2.1	105	26.0%	9.4%	1.52	3.94