Gerrit Cole P New York Yankees
Age 35 RHP 6'4" / 220 lbs MLB Svc 12.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 4.3 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION78 act + 67 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9586vR 77
ERA3.47
FIP3.41
K%24.8%
BB%5.8%
K-BB%19.1%
ROS IP67
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 145 IP
K: +5.5 runs (Runs saved by strikeouts vs lg-avg K%)+6KBB: +21.4 runs (Runs saved by walk suppression vs lg-avg BB%)+21BBCONTACT: -22.1 runs (Runs saved on contact quality (HR suppression) vs lg)-22CONTACTSTAM: +19.7 runs (Replacement credit for innings volume)+20STAMTotal WAR: +2.58 (145 IP)+2.6WAR
0.02.55.01.02.31.4-$48M ctrl surplus26272829303132333435
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Scouting Grades
OFP—70
STUF6570
CTRL5555
CMD5055
K†6565
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p8296.8
Whiff%
p1017.8%
K%
p5322.7%
xwOBA vs
p720.291
FB+4.2 (46%)
SL+1.3 (14%)
CU (19%)
CT (16%)
CH-2.2 (4%)
Contract CONFIRMED · hand-curated extension
Status   FA
MLB Debut   2013
Service   12.645 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2028
First FA Year   2029
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026ROSExt$14M+1.0$8M-$6M
2027Ext$36M+2.3$17M-$15M
2028Ext$36M+1.4$10M-$20M
Totals $86M $35M -$41M
Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$41M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

YearAge LvlTeam GGSIPBF KBBHR GS%IP/G K%BB%K-BB%HR% ERAFIP WAR
201524MLBPittsburgh Pirates32322088322024311100%6.524.3%5.2%19.1%1.3%2.602.44+7.2
201524MLBPittsburgh Pirates32322088322024311100%6.524.3%5.2%19.1%1.3%2.602.47+7.1
201625MIX2 levels2323124534110337100%5.419.4%6.5%12.8%1.4%3.633.06+3.4
201625MIX2 levels2323124534110337100%5.420.6%6.2%14.4%1.3%3.632.86+3.7
201726MLBPittsburgh Pirates33332038491965431100%6.223.1%6.4%16.7%3.7%4.263.98+3.4
201726MLBPittsburgh Pirates33332038491965431100%6.223.1%6.4%16.7%3.7%4.263.95+3.4
201827MLBHouston Astros32322007992766419100%6.334.5%8.0%26.5%2.2%2.882.43+7.0
201827MLBHouston Astros32322007992766419100%6.334.5%8.0%26.5%2.4%2.882.54+6.7
201928MLBHouston Astros33332128173264829100%6.439.9%5.9%34.0%3.3%2.502.31+7.7
201928MLBHouston Astros33332128173264829100%6.439.9%5.9%34.0%3.5%2.502.48+7.2
202029MLBNew York Yankees121273288941714100%6.132.6%5.9%26.7%4.5%2.843.57+1.1
202029MLBNew York Yankees121273288941714100%6.132.6%5.9%26.7%4.9%2.843.72+0.9
202130MLBNew York Yankees30301817262434124100%6.033.5%5.6%27.8%3.1%3.232.68+5.8
202130MLBNew York Yankees30301817262434124100%6.033.5%5.6%27.8%3.3%3.232.82+5.5
202231MLBNew York Yankees33332017932575033100%6.132.4%6.3%26.1%3.9%3.503.29+5.0
202231MLBNew York Yankees33332017932575033100%6.132.4%6.3%26.1%4.2%3.503.42+4.6
202332MLBNew York Yankees33332098212224820100%6.327.0%5.8%21.2%2.3%2.632.80+6.4
202332MLBNew York Yankees33332098212224820100%6.327.0%5.8%21.2%2.4%2.632.91+6.1
202433MIX3 levels20201074341182812100%5.425.4%7.2%18.2%2.6%3.103.31+2.6
202433MIX3 levels20201074341182812100%5.427.2%6.5%20.7%2.8%3.103.14+2.8
▸ 2026 Season
202635MLBNew York Yankees151578323751414100%5.222.2%5.0%17.2%4.4%4.274.28+0.6
ROS35MLBNYY11116728571169100%6.124.8%5.8%19.1%3.1%3.473.41+1.0
ROS35MLBNYY11116728370169100%6.124.8%5.8%19.1%3.2%3.543.48+1.0
2026 TOT35MLBNYY——1456081463023——24.0%5.0%19.0%3.7%3.903.88+2.6
2026 FULL35MLBNYY——1164911463023——29.6%6.2%23.5%4.7%4.913.95+2.0
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202736MLBNYY24241456111504020100%6.024.6%6.5%18.1%3.3%3.904.03+2.3
202837MLBNYY21211265331253820100%6.023.5%7.1%16.3%3.7%4.224.43+1.4
202938MLBNYY18181094591023619100%6.022.3%7.8%14.5%4.1%4.604.86+0.7
203039MLBNYY161693394843418100%5.821.2%8.5%12.7%4.6%5.015.29-0.0
203140MLBNYY131380339683117100%6.220.0%9.2%10.8%5.0%5.445.72-0.7
202736MLBNYY24241456121504021100%6.024.6%6.5%18.1%3.4%3.974.10+2.2
202837MLBNYY21211265321253820100%6.023.5%7.1%16.3%3.8%4.304.51+1.3
202938MLBNYY18181094601033620100%6.122.3%7.8%14.5%4.3%4.694.95+0.6
203039MLBNYY151593393833419100%6.221.2%8.5%12.7%4.8%5.105.38-0.1
203140MLBNYY131380338683118100%6.220.0%9.2%10.8%5.2%5.545.82-0.8
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career—390390236896492660632313100%6.127.6%6.6%21.0%3.2%3.513.38+55.8
/ 200 IP—33332008152255326100%6.127.6%6.6%21.0%3.2%3.513.38+4.7
Career—296296179772162101447205100%6.129.1%6.2%22.9%2.8%3.162.99+50.7
/ 200 IP—33332008032345023100%6.129.1%6.2%22.9%2.8%3.162.99+5.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Profile at Match Age Next 3 Yrs Career
CompAgeRole FIPK%BB%HR/BFBABIP FIPK%K-BB%IP ΔFIPLow FIPIPMatch
Gerrit Cole (OGILVIE) —— 3.31 27.6%6.2%2.5%— 4.40 23.6%16.5%380 +1.09 ———
Yasutomo Kubo R 2029 · 3.67 FIP 38 SP 3.67 20.4%4.7%3.1%.327 — ——— — 3.67 152 62
Charlie Morton R 2026 · 2.55 FIP 35 SP 2.55 30.4%7.2%2.0%.291 3.32 28.1%20.2%396 +0.77 2.55 1,534 57
A.J. Burnett R 2029 · 3.10 FIP 38 SP 3.10 20.5%6.7%1.6%.327 — ——— — 3.10 164 56
John Lackey R 2027 · 3.42 FIP 36 SP 3.42 19.5%5.4%2.4%.291 4.21 22.3%15.4%359 +0.79 3.42 577 54
Yoanner Negrin R 2026 · 4.31 FIP 35 SP 4.31 17.5%8.1%3.0%.280 — ——— — 3.19 485 52
Miles Mikolas R 2026 · 4.10 FIP 35 SP 4.10 16.9%3.5%3.6%.307 5.11 14.0%8.7%251 +1.01 3.06 1,275 51
Josh Roenicke R 2025 · 3.49 FIP 34 SP 3.49 18.0%5.8%2.1%.332 — ——— — 3.29 283 50
Justin Verlander R 2026 · 2.46 FIP 35 SP 2.46 34.8%4.4%3.2%.268 2.94 35.4%30.4%223 +0.48 2.24 1,584 49
Jarrett Grube R 2026 · 4.16 FIP 35 SP 4.16 15.8%8.1%2.5%.296 — ——— — 3.49 393 48
Kameron Loe R 2026 · 3.47 FIP 35 SP 3.47 17.1%8.0%1.5%.317 — ——— — 3.47 201 47
Aníbal Sánchez R 2026 · 4.06 FIP 35 SP 4.06 18.8%6.7%3.1%.258 5.04 17.2%7.8%135 +0.98 3.49 869 47
Lorenzo Barcelo R 2028 · 3.07 FIP 37 SP 3.07 13.2%3.6%1.2%.345 3.27 12.8%11.7%45 +0.20 3.07 199 46
Frankie De La Cruz R 2026 · 4.34 FIP 35 SP- 4.34 16.2%8.0%2.9%.322 — ——— — 3.70 240 46
Jorge Martinez R 2025 · 3.47 FIP 34 SP 3.47 16.3%5.7%1.8%.348 — ——— — 3.42 214 46
Max Scherzer R 2026 · 2.13 FIP 35 SP 2.13 35.1%4.5%2.6%.314 2.71 32.3%27.1%392 +0.58 2.13 1,761 45
Colby Lewis R 2026 · 3.91 FIP 35 SP 3.91 16.5%4.6%2.9%.283 4.70 15.5%9.6%116 +0.79 3.91 321 44
Zack Greinke R 2026 · 2.93 FIP 35 SP 2.93 23.1%3.5%2.5%.268 4.00 16.8%12.1%375 +1.07 2.58 1,517 44
Walter Silva R 2029 · 3.95 FIP 38 SP 3.95 14.8%7.4%2.1%.311 3.96 10.4%3.7%209 +0.01 3.68 428 44
Hisashi Iwakuma R 2026 · 4.20 FIP 35 SP 4.20 17.6%5.1%3.5%.307 6.39 12.5%3.1%31 +2.19 3.79 360 43
Josh Lowey R 2025 · 3.43 FIP 34 SP 3.43 22.4%6.8%2.5%.303 — ——— — 2.28 426 42

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

PlayerYrsIP/yrK%BB%HR/9ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION612023.8%7.3%1.424.26
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)613421.4%7.7%1.464.45
J.A. Happ ('21)715021.6%7.1%1.324.03
Jerad Eickhoff ('19)410921.0%6.9%1.434.12
Danny Duffy ('21)712421.7%8.1%1.204.04
Mike Minor ('22)612622.3%7.2%1.444.38
Félix Hernández ('19)513420.0%8.1%1.394.48