David Buchanan
P
Round Rock Express
Age 37
RHP
6'3" / 200 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION29 proj IP · Marcel + aging
ERA4.96
FIP5.05
xFIP7.54
SIERA7.45
K%14.1%
BB%8.5%
K-BB%5.6%
IP29
K†3030
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
FB Velo
p1089.8
Whiff%
p1016.4%
K%
p1012.5%
xwOBA vs
p100.371
FB+0.5 (28%)
CH (26%)
SI (26%)
CU (12%)
CT (34%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.4 (SP) / 4.55 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 26 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 27 | 27 | 138 | 623 | 79 | 47 | 14 | 11.9% | 8.1% | 2.5% | 4.94 | 4.49 | +1.5 |
| 2016 | 27 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | 27 | 26 | 167 | 686 | 95 | 40 | 15 | 12.2% | 6.1% | 2.7% | 3.98 | 4.34 | +2.1 |
| 2024 | 35 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 27 | 19 | 127 | 552 | 93 | 39 | 15 | 15.1% | 7.6% | 2.6% | 4.81 | 4.23 | +1.7 |
| 2025 | 36 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 6 | 6 | 29 | 134 | 19 | 12 | 5 | 12.5% | 9.4% | 5.0% | 5.28 | 5.96 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 37 | MLB | TEX | 29 | — | 29 | 123 | 17 | 11 | 4 | 14.1% | 8.5% | 3.1% | 4.96 | 5.05 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 38 | MLB | TEX | 25 | — | 25 | 106 | 15 | 10 | 4 | 13.9% | 9.3% | 3.5% | 5.20 | 5.41 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 87 | 78 | 462 | 1995 | 258 | 147 | 55 | 12.9% | 7.4% | 2.8% | 4.58 | 4.47 | +5.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 38 | 34 | 200 | 864 | 112 | 64 | 24 | 12.9% | 7.4% | 2.8% | 4.58 | 4.47 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| David Buchanan (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.05 | 14.1% | 8.5% | 3.1% | — | 5.41 | 13.9% | 4.6% | 25 | +0.36 | — | — | — |
| Sergio Mitre R 2025 · 5.02 FIP | 36 | SW | 5.02 | 9.7% | 4.8% | 3.9% | .282 | 4.48 | 11.8% | 5.3% | 103 | -0.54 | 4.48 | 156 | 73 |
| Chien-Ming Wang R 2025 · 4.52 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.52 | 13.0% | 7.8% | 2.8% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 183 | 73 |
| Jonathan Castellanos R 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 37 | SW | 5.02 | 11.0% | 9.0% | 3.1% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 394 | 70 |
| Alfredo Simon R 2024 · 5.63 FIP | 35 | SW | 5.63 | 12.3% | 9.6% | 4.3% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.69 | 261 | 69 |
| Tomoyuki Sugano R 2025 · 5.13 FIP | 36 | SW | 5.13 | 13.6% | 7.0% | 4.2% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.91 | 225 | 67 |
| Oscar Villarreal R 2024 · 5.28 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.28 | 8.7% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.54 | 135 | 66 |
| Zack Segovia R 2025 · 4.36 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.36 | 17.6% | 13.6% | 1.9% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 144 | 65 |
| Jason Motte R 2024 · 5.16 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.16 | 16.3% | 11.4% | 3.6% | .193 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 113 | 64 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2025 · 4.56 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.56 | 15.8% | 7.1% | 3.5% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 119 | 64 |
| Hisashi Iwakuma R 2025 · 6.39 FIP | 36 | SU | 6.39 | 12.5% | 9.4% | 5.8% | .215 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 360 | 64 |
| Kyle Lohse R 2026 · 5.53 FIP | 37 | SW | 5.53 | 14.8% | 6.0% | 5.3% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.98 | 211 | 63 |
| Ronald Belisario R 2025 · 4.74 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.74 | 12.7% | 3.9% | 4.0% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.10 | 126 | 63 |
| Francisco Rodriguez R 2025 · 5.11 FIP | 36 | SP- | 5.11 | 10.7% | 9.3% | 3.2% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 273 | 60 |
| Mitch Talbot R 2024 · 5.05 FIP | 35 | SW | 5.05 | 13.2% | 4.3% | 4.6% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 162 | 59 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2024 · 4.59 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.59 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 4.2% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 208 | 57 |
| Tim Hudson R 2029 · 4.42 FIP | 40 | SP- | 4.42 | 12.2% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 124 | 57 |
| Jeremy Guthrie R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 37 | SP- | 5.00 | 11.6% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.00 | 235 | 56 |
| Yoshihisa Hirano R 2025 · 5.07 FIP | 36 | SU | 5.07 | 17.5% | 12.7% | 3.3% | .381 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 132 | 54 |
| Pablo Ortega R 2027 · 4.41 FIP | 38 | SP- | 4.41 | 8.6% | 7.3% | 2.0% | .291 | 4.33 | 11.5% | 6.0% | 236 | -0.08 | 3.92 | 375 | 54 |
| Felipe Paulino R 2024 · 6.00 FIP | 35 | SU | 6.00 | 19.2% | 9.4% | 6.1% | .385 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.68 | 150 | 54 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.