David Buchanan

P Round Rock Express

Age 38 RHP 6'3" / 200 lbs AAA peak 0.4 · 2027

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2016	27	AAAPHI	27	26	167	3.98	3.85	13.8%	5.8%	—	K 12.2% · BB 6.1% · FIP 4.25
2024	35	MIX3 levels	27	19	127	4.81	4.09	16.8%	7.1%	2.0	K 14.7% · BB 6.5% · FIP 4.26
2025	36	AAATEX	6	6	29	5.28	5.27	14.2%	9.0%	—	K 12.2% · BB 8.1% · FIP 5.56
2026	37	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	38	MLBTEX	1	1	5	4.97	4.98	16.0%	9.1%	0.0
2028PROJMLE	39	MLBTEX	—	—	0	5.24	5.42	14.8%	9.8%	—

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.0 · Next 2 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2015

FB Velo10

K%10

xwOBA vs10

CompsWalter Silva (age 38) · Pablo Ortega (age 38) · Jose Oyervides (age 37)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 118

ERA4.97

FIP4.98

K%16.0%

BB%9.1%

K-BB%6.8%

Proj IP49

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 49 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5050

CMD3030

K†3030

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1089.8

Whiff%

p1016.4%

p1012.5%

xwOBA vs

p100.371

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2014	25	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	20	20	118	503	71	30	12	100%	5.9	14.1%	6.0%	8.2%	2.2%	3.75	3.88	+2.1
2014	25	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	20	20	118	503	71	30	12	100%	5.9	14.1%	6.0%	8.2%	2.4%	3.75	3.98	+2.0
2015	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	27	138	623	79	47	14	100%	5.1	11.9%	8.1%	3.8%	2.3%	4.94	4.40	+1.6
2015	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	27	138	623	79	47	14	100%	5.1	12.7%	7.5%	5.1%	2.2%	4.94	4.29	+1.8
2016	27	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	27	26	167	686	95	40	15	96%	6.2	12.2%	6.1%	6.1%	2.6%	3.98	4.25	—
2016	27	AAA RAW	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	27	26	167	686	95	40	15	96%	6.2	13.8%	5.8%	8.0%	2.2%	3.98	3.85	—
2024	35	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	19	127	552	93	39	15	70%	4.7	14.7%	6.5%	8.2%	2.9%	4.81	4.26	+1.7
2024	35	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	19	127	552	93	39	15	70%	4.7	14.7%	6.5%	8.2%	2.9%	4.81	4.26	+1.7
2024	35	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	19	127	552	93	39	15	70%	4.7	16.8%	7.1%	9.8%	2.7%	4.81	4.09	+2.0
2025	36	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	6	6	29	134	19	12	5	100%	4.8	12.2%	8.1%	4.1%	4.5%	5.28	5.56	—
2025	36	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	6	6	29	134	19	12	5	100%	4.8	12.2%	8.1%	4.1%	4.5%	5.28	5.56	—
2025	36	AAA RAW	Round Rock Express	6	6	29	134	19	12	5	100%	4.8	14.2%	9.0%	5.2%	3.7%	5.28	5.27	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			36	35	196	868	116	60	24	97%	5.4	13.4%	6.9%	6.5%	2.8%	4.97	4.43	+2.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	38	MLB	TEX	1	1	5	21	3	2	1	100%	5.0	16.0%	9.1%	6.8%	3.1%	4.97	4.98	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	39	MLB MLE	TEX	5	5	31	131	19	13	5	100%	6.2	14.8%	9.8%	5.0%	3.5%	5.24	5.42	-0.0
2028	39	MLB CTX	TEX	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	14.8%	9.8%	5.0%	3.5%	5.24	5.42	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		36	35	196	868	116	60	24	97%	5.4	13.4%	6.9%	6.5%	2.8%	4.97	4.36	+2.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	36	200	887	119	61	25	97%	5.4	13.4%	6.9%	6.5%	2.8%	4.97	4.36	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		107	98	580	2498	326	169	65	92%	5.4	13.1%	6.8%	6.3%	2.6%	4.41	4.29	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		37	34	200	862	113	58	23	92%	5.4	13.1%	6.8%	6.3%	2.6%	4.41	4.29	+1.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAARound Rock Express · 29 IPFIP 5.09 → 5.56 (+0.47)K% 14.2% → 12.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	14.18%	—	×0.860	12.19%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.96%	—	×0.900	8.06%
HR / BF /BF	3.73%	÷0.913	×1.100	4.49%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 83).

Result: FIP 5.09 → 5.56, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAALouisville Bats · 117 IPFIP 4.17 → 4.26 (+0.10)K% 17.1% → 14.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.12%	—	×0.860	14.72%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.20%	—	×0.900	6.48%
HR / BF /BF	2.92%	÷1.111	×1.100	2.89%

Result: FIP 4.17 → 4.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws · 7 IPFIP 1.69 → 2.02 (+0.32)K% 16.7% → 12.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.67%	—	×0.770	12.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.150	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.926	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 85).

Result: FIP 1.69 → 2.02, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 167 IPFIP 3.87 → 4.25 (+0.38)K% 13.8% → 12.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	13.85%	—	×0.880	12.19%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.83%	—	×1.050	6.12%
HR / BF /BF	2.19%	÷0.942	×1.100	2.55%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 88).

Result: FIP 3.87 → 4.25, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 55 IPFIP 3.50 → 3.82 (+0.31)K% 12.5% → 11.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	12.50%	—	×0.880	11.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.92%	—	×1.050	8.31%
HR / BF /BF	0.83%	÷0.845	×1.100	1.08%

Result: FIP 3.50 → 3.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 ROKGCL Phillies · 9 IPFIP 1.78 → 2.20 (+0.42)K% 15.6% → 10.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.62%	—	×0.680	10.63%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.250	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.78 → 2.20, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

	Profile at Match Age	Next 3 Yrs	Career
David Buchanan (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.98	16.0%	9.1%	3.1%	—	5.42	14.8%	5.0%	31	+0.44	—	—	—
Walter Silva R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	38	SP	4.15	14.8%	7.4%	2.5%	.311	3.91	10.4%	3.7%	209	-0.24	3.67	453	66
Pablo Ortega R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	38	SP	4.52	8.6%	7.3%	2.2%	.291	4.24	11.5%	6.0%	236	-0.28	4.01	375	63
Jose Oyervides R 2019 · 5.66 FIP	37	SP	5.66	16.3%	11.2%	4.6%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	407	61
Ivan Maldonado R 2016 · 5.41 FIP	36	SP	5.41	6.4%	9.7%	3.0%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.60	172	59
Yasutomo Kubo R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	38	SP	3.98	20.4%	4.7%	3.6%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	152	50
Jonathan Castellanos R 2019 · 5.24 FIP	37	SW	5.24	11.0%	9.0%	3.5%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	394	38
Juan Antonio Pena L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	37	SP-	4.20	13.6%	9.9%	1.8%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	149	33
Oscar Rivera L 2017 · 5.80 FIP	36	SP	5.80	9.8%	7.8%	4.6%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	3.68	237	32
Jorge Castillo L 2019 · 4.91 FIP	37	SP	4.91	19.6%	8.1%	4.5%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.50	408	30
Jason Lane L 2015 · 5.56 FIP	38	SP	5.56	8.4%	6.2%	4.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	5.56	164	24

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	69	14.0%	7.9%	1.12	5.00
Dave Otto ('87-'94, -1 WAR*)	1.6	80	13.4%*	8.5%*	1.17*	5.29*
Justin Germano ('14)	1.6	66	14.3%	7.3%	1.12	5.40
Mike Trujillo ('85-'89, -0 WAR*)	1.2	59	12.5%*	8.2%*	1.19*	4.92*
Pete Munro ('04)	1.6	63	13.3%	8.0%	0.88	4.88
Sun-Woo Kim ('06)	1.7	84	13.9%	8.4%	1.18	5.31
Ken Clay ('77-'81, -2 WAR*)	1.8	71	13.4%*	9.0%*	1.19*	5.13*

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
David Buchanan (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.98	16.0%	9.1%	3.1%	—	5.42	14.8%	5.0%	31	+0.44	—	—	—
Walter Silva R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	38	SP	4.15	14.8%	7.4%	2.5%	.311	3.91	10.4%	3.7%	209	-0.24	3.67	453	66
Pablo Ortega R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	38	SP	4.52	8.6%	7.3%	2.2%	.291	4.24	11.5%	6.0%	236	-0.28	4.01	375	63
Jose Oyervides R 2019 · 5.66 FIP	37	SP	5.66	16.3%	11.2%	4.6%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	407	61
Ivan Maldonado R 2016 · 5.41 FIP	36	SP	5.41	6.4%	9.7%	3.0%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.60	172	59
Yasutomo Kubo R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	38	SP	3.98	20.4%	4.7%	3.6%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	152	50
Jonathan Castellanos R 2019 · 5.24 FIP	37	SW	5.24	11.0%	9.0%	3.5%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	394	38
Juan Antonio Pena L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	37	SP-	4.20	13.6%	9.9%	1.8%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	149	33
Oscar Rivera L 2017 · 5.80 FIP	36	SP	5.80	9.8%	7.8%	4.6%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	3.68	237	32
Jorge Castillo L 2019 · 4.91 FIP	37	SP	4.91	19.6%	8.1%	4.5%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.50	408	30
Jason Lane L 2015 · 5.56 FIP	38	SP	5.56	8.4%	6.2%	4.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	5.56	164	24

David Buchanan

Contract

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Path Comps

Career Comps