David Buchanan
P
Round Rock Express
+0.0
WAR
Age 37
RHP
6'3" / 200 lbs
AAA
ERA4.84
FIP4.84
xFIP7.54
SIERA7.45
K%17.4%
BB%8.5%
K-BB%8.9%
IP42
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
K†3030
FB Velo
p1089.8
Whiff%
p1016.4%
K%
p1012.5%
xwOBA vs
p100.371
FB+0.5 (28%)
CH (26%)
SI (26%)
CU (12%)
CT (34%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 26 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 27 | 27 | 138 | 623 | 79 | 47 | 14 | 11.9% | 8.1% | 2.3% | 4.94 | 4.38 | +1.4 |
| 2016 | 27 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | 27 | 26 | 167 | 686 | 95 | 40 | 15 | 12.2% | 6.1% | 2.6% | 3.98 | 4.25 | +2.0 |
| 2024 | 35 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 27 | 19 | 127 | 552 | 93 | 39 | 15 | 15.1% | 7.6% | 2.8% | 4.81 | 4.35 | +1.4 |
| 2025 | 36 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 6 | 6 | 29 | 134 | 19 | 12 | 5 | 12.5% | 9.4% | 4.6% | 5.28 | 5.75 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 37 | MLB | PHI | 42 | — | 42 | 176 | 25 | 15 | 5 | 14.1% | 8.5% | 3.1% | 4.96 | 5.05 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 38 | MLB | PHI | 38 | — | 38 | 162 | 23 | 14 | 5 | 14.2% | 8.9% | 3.2% | 5.06 | 5.17 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 87 | 78 | 462 | 1995 | 258 | 147 | 54 | 12.9% | 7.4% | 2.7% | 4.58 | 4.42 | +4.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 38 | 34 | 200 | 864 | 112 | 64 | 23 | 12.9% | 7.4% | 2.7% | 4.58 | 4.42 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| David Buchanan (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.05 | 14.1% | 8.5% | 3.1% | — | 5.17 | 14.2% | 5.3% | 38 | +0.12 | — | — | — |
| Chien-Ming Wang R 2025 · 4.56 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.56 | 13.0% | 7.8% | 2.9% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.26 | 183 | 72 |
| Sergio Mitre R 2025 · 4.85 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.85 | 9.7% | 4.8% | 3.6% | .282 | 4.54 | 11.8% | 5.3% | 103 | -0.31 | 4.54 | 156 | 71 |
| Hisashi Iwakuma R 2025 · 6.12 FIP | 36 | SU | 6.12 | 12.5% | 9.4% | 5.3% | .215 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.86 | 360 | 69 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2025 · 4.65 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.65 | 15.8% | 7.1% | 3.6% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 119 | 69 |
| Jason Motte R 2024 · 5.24 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.24 | 16.3% | 11.4% | 3.8% | .193 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 113 | 69 |
| Oscar Villarreal R 2024 · 5.35 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.35 | 8.7% | 8.6% | 3.5% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.53 | 135 | 68 |
| Alfredo Simon R 2024 · 5.60 FIP | 35 | SW | 5.60 | 12.3% | 9.6% | 4.2% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.65 | 261 | 67 |
| Jonathan Castellanos R 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 37 | SW | 5.22 | 11.0% | 9.0% | 3.5% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 394 | 67 |
| Zack Segovia R 2025 · 4.52 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.52 | 17.6% | 13.6% | 2.2% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.37 | 144 | 66 |
| Kyle Lohse R 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 37 | SW | 5.01 | 14.8% | 6.0% | 4.4% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.01 | 211 | 66 |
| Salvador Valdez R 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.30 | 17.1% | 8.2% | 2.9% | .405 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.61 | 326 | 63 |
| Felipe Paulino R 2024 · 5.83 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.83 | 19.2% | 9.4% | 5.8% | .385 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.52 | 150 | 61 |
| Logan Ondrusek R 2025 · 4.34 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.34 | 19.2% | 7.3% | 3.5% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 138 | 60 |
| Chad Gaudin R 2025 · 6.51 FIP | 36 | SU | 6.51 | 13.3% | 8.0% | 6.4% | .375 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.02 | 102 | 60 |
| Yoshihisa Hirano R 2025 · 4.90 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.90 | 17.5% | 12.7% | 3.0% | .381 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 132 | 59 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2024 · 4.45 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.45 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 3.9% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 208 | 59 |
| Mitch Talbot R 2024 · 5.01 FIP | 35 | SW | 5.01 | 13.2% | 4.3% | 4.5% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 162 | 59 |
| Francisco Rodríguez R 2024 · 6.54 FIP | 35 | SU | 6.54 | 19.5% | 8.5% | 7.3% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.87 | 141 | 58 |
| Edinson Volquez R 2025 · 6.15 FIP | 36 | SU | 6.15 | 13.3% | 16.0% | 3.9% | .340 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 498 | 56 |
| Seunghwan Oh R 2026 · 5.68 FIP | 37 | SU | 5.68 | 18.2% | 6.8% | 5.9% | .383 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.80 | 226 | 55 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.