OGILVIE · 2026 Season
How it works →
Projected 2026 Standings
Full standings + playoffs →
Top Hitters AL→
1
NYY+9.0 WAR2.3 act + 6.7 ros
NYY+9.0 WAR2.3 act + 6.7 ros2
KC+7.7 WAR2.0 act + 5.7 ros
KC+7.7 WAR2.0 act + 5.7 ros3
BAL+6.1 WAR1.5 act + 4.6 ros
BAL+6.1 WAR1.5 act + 4.6 ros4
SEA+5.7 WAR1.4 act + 4.3 ros
SEA+5.7 WAR1.4 act + 4.3 ros5
SEA+5.5 WAR1.4 act + 4.1 ros
View all →SEA+5.5 WAR1.4 act + 4.1 rosTop Pitchers AL→
1
NYY+3.3 WAR0.8 act + 2.5 ros
NYY+3.3 WAR0.8 act + 2.5 ros2
DET+3.2 WAR0.7 act + 2.5 ros
DET+3.2 WAR0.7 act + 2.5 ros3
TOR+2.9 WAR0.4 act + 2.5 ros
TOR+2.9 WAR0.4 act + 2.5 ros4
SEA+2.9 WAR0.4 act + 2.5 ros
SEA+2.9 WAR0.4 act + 2.5 ros5
SEA+2.8 WAR0.5 act + 2.3 ros
View all →SEA+2.8 WAR0.5 act + 2.3 rosTop Rookies AL
1
CWS+2.4 WAR0.6 act + 1.8 ros
CWS+2.4 WAR0.6 act + 1.8 ros2
BOS+2.4 WAR0.6 act + 1.8 ros
BOS+2.4 WAR0.6 act + 1.8 ros3
DET+1.8 WAR0.5 act + 1.3 ros
DET+1.8 WAR0.5 act + 1.3 ros4
MIN+1.6 WAR0.4 act + 1.2 ros
MIN+1.6 WAR0.4 act + 1.2 ros5
TB+1.5 WAR0.4 act + 1.1 ros
TB+1.5 WAR0.4 act + 1.1 ros
Top Hitters NL→
1
LAD+8.3 WAR2.1 act + 6.2 ros
LAD+8.3 WAR2.1 act + 6.2 ros2
NYM+7.1 WAR1.8 act + 5.3 ros
NYM+7.1 WAR1.8 act + 5.3 ros3
CIN+6.1 WAR1.5 act + 4.6 ros
CIN+6.1 WAR1.5 act + 4.6 ros4
ARI+5.5 WAR1.4 act + 4.1 ros
ARI+5.5 WAR1.4 act + 4.1 ros5
SD+5.5 WAR1.4 act + 4.1 ros
View all →SD+5.5 WAR1.4 act + 4.1 rosTop Pitchers NL→
1LAD+8.3 WAR2.1 act + 6.2 ros
LAD+8.3 WAR2.1 act + 6.2 ros2
SF+4.3 WAR1.1 act + 3.2 ros
SF+4.3 WAR1.1 act + 3.2 ros3
PIT+4.3 WAR0.5 act + 3.8 ros
PIT+4.3 WAR0.5 act + 3.8 ros4
PHI+4.0 WAR0.6 act + 3.4 ros
PHI+4.0 WAR0.6 act + 3.4 ros5
PHI+3.6 WAR0.9 act + 2.7 ros
View all →PHI+3.6 WAR0.9 act + 2.7 rosTop Rookies NL
1
PIT+2.2 WAR0.6 act + 1.6 ros
PIT+2.2 WAR0.6 act + 1.6 ros2
STL+1.8 WAR0.5 act + 1.3 ros
STL+1.8 WAR0.5 act + 1.3 ros3
MIL+1.7 WAR0.4 act + 1.3 ros
MIL+1.7 WAR0.4 act + 1.3 ros4
PIT+1.5 WAR0.4 act + 1.1 ros
PIT+1.5 WAR0.4 act + 1.1 ros5
CHC+1.4 WAR0.4 act + 1.0 ros
CHC+1.4 WAR0.4 act + 1.0 ros
Best at Each PositionAL · NL · Top Prospect (peak projected WAR)
C
1B
2B
SS
3B
LF
CF
RF
DH
ALAmerican
NLNational
Projected 2026 Stat Leaders
Latest Updates
2026-04-23
- Pitcher K% scale fix: whiff→K% model was using hitter coefficients on pitcher-scale data, causing 36%+ K% projections — now calibrated to pitcher whiff avg 25.5%
- SIERA ERA blend: pitcher ERA now 45% FIP + 25% SIERA + 30% prior ERA (5,616 FG advanced pitching records)
- Pitcher regression tightened: +0.79 WAR over-projection for avg pitchers fixed by increasing regression BF priors
- Pitcher aging recalibrated: K% decline reduced 50-80% (was -0.6%/yr at 34, now -0.35%/yr); velocity penalty fixed from compounding to flat per-year
- Scouting coverage 7x: auto-grading from Statcast (1,288 hitters + 1,708 pitchers) + MLE stats (2,052 more hitters). Zero manual overrides.
- Scouting fielding+arm grades drive FLD runs for prospects; comp matching uses scouting future grades
- Pitcher comps: FB velo + pitch profile matching, 3yr IP workload, granular role bucketing (SP/SP-/SW/SU/CL)
- Hitter comps: multi-signal grades (BABIP+K%, ISO+HR, SB+3B+SB%), target player row, SIM% fix
- Competitive Window: projected standings 2027-2032 based on team control estimation
- New data: pitch values (5,616), FG batting advanced (9,610), HR/FB + bat speed, ht/wt for 37,300 players
- latest.html build report page with verification links + next steps
- Calibration: wRC+ RMSE=14.5 (from 15.7), WAR RMSE=1.15, wRC+ bias=+0.7 — competitive with Steamer/ZiPS
- Prospect rankings: split into Top 50 Hitters + Top 50 Pitchers with scouting grades
- Statcast percentile bars for hitters (6 metrics) and pitchers (4 metrics)
- Pitch arsenal display on pitcher pages with color-coded run values
- Player search bar in global header + player-index.json
- HR/SB/K%/BB%/SPD + AVG/OBP/SLG slash line in hitter hero card
2026-04-22
- Comp table redesigned: scouting grades now in 4 separate columns (HIT/PWR/SPD/EYE), match quality SIM% score added, K%/BB%/ISO profile columns show WHY each comp was selected
- Depth chart PA fix: starters now get full projected PA at primary position (GS-weighted split instead of equal proration). Correa 3B / utility player fix.
- MLB Pipeline scouting grades added: 30 org pages scraped (~400+ matched players) using MLBAM ID exact matching
- Baseball America org lists added: all 30 team top-30 pages parsed for additional prospect grades
- Scouting search module (scouting_search.py) added: per-player web search for grades from BA, Prospects Live, Pipeline individual pages
- Standings PO%: Monte Carlo playoff probability (6k simulations, σ=5 wins) added to each division table
- CS model: stolen base success rate now speed-dependent (fast runner 87%, avg 78%, slow 74%) instead of flat for all speeds
- OAA blend: Statcast Outs Above Average (40%) blended with UZR/DRS (60%) for post-2019 fielding projections
- Pitcher Statcast: fastball velocity → K%, whiff% → K% blend, barrel% against → HR/BF (6,852 pitcher-year records, 2015-2025)
- Pitcher scouting: fb_velo and control grades now contribute independently to K%/BB% projection (alongside stuff/command)
- Standings spread: continuous 1.25× spread amplifier replaces step-function; projected stdev now matches actual (~11.7 vs 9.3 before)
- Pitcher velocity aging: K% decays 0.35%/yr after age 28 from velo loss (0.5 mph/yr × 0.7% K per mph) for pitchers with Statcast data
- 2026 Statcast: early-season 2026 data now incorporated (414 hitters, 282 pitchers, 400 sprint speed) for in-season projection updates
- Bullpen leverage badges: ★ marks closers/setup men (gmLI ≥ 1.3) on depth chart pages
- Injury-adjusted IP: pitchers with 2+ career major IP drops (>60% loss) get 14% IP discount; 1 drop = 7% discount
- Scouting fielding: field_cur/field_fut + arm grades now drive fielding runs for prospects without MLB defensive data (30-grade C = -10 runs/162)
- Comp scouting grades: multi-signal derivation — HIT uses BABIP+K%, PWR uses ISO+HR/PA, SPD uses SB/PA+3B/PA+SB%, EYE uses BB%+K%
- Comp table: SIM% now shows meaningful similarity (was always 0% due to distance scaling bug); BABIP added to profile columns
2026-04-21
- Eye/plate discipline grade added: FanGraphs Pitch_Sel mapped to eye_cur/eye_fut, wired into BB% projection blend
- HR/PA scouting cap: grade-80 power capped at 0.050 HR/PA (~30 HR/600) to prevent over-aggressive prospect debuts
- Pitcher comp distance bug fixed: zip(WEIGHTS, a, b) corrected from zip(WEIGHTS, zip(a,b))
- Statcast data incorporated: barrel% → HR/PA blend, xwOBA → Marcel contact blend (40%), sprint_speed → UBR baserunning