Logan Gilbert — OGILVIE

Logan Gilbert P Seattle Mariners

Age 29 RHP 6'6" / 215 lbs MLB Svc 4.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 4.2 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION172 act + 16 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9890vR 82

ERA3.48

FIP3.51

K%27.8%

BB%5.9%

K-BB%21.9%

ROS IP16

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 188 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$1M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL6060

CMD7070

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7596.3

Whiff%

p8230.3%

p7827.3%

xwOBA vs

p670.295

CH+1.7 (7%)

FB+0.8 (40%)

CT-0.6 (5%)

SL-1.6 (26%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2021

Service 4.837 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.8M	-$0.1M
2027	Arb-3	$14M	+1.6	$12M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.9M		$13M	-$0.1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	26	135	521	165	33	7	100%	5.2	24.6%	7.2%	17.4%	2.0%	2.13	3.04	—
2019	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	26	135	521	165	33	7	100%	5.2	31.7%	6.3%	25.3%	1.3%	2.13	2.06	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	124	521	133	26	17	100%	5.0	25.4%	5.2%	20.3%	3.5%	4.56	3.51	+2.1
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	124	521	133	26	17	100%	5.0	25.5%	5.0%	20.5%	3.3%	4.56	3.37	+2.3
2022	25	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	32	32	186	766	174	47	19	100%	5.8	22.7%	6.1%	16.6%	2.5%	3.20	3.36	+3.5
2022	25	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	32	32	186	766	174	47	19	100%	5.8	22.7%	6.1%	16.6%	2.5%	3.20	3.32	+3.6
2023	26	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	32	32	191	770	189	35	29	100%	6.0	24.5%	4.5%	20.0%	3.9%	3.73	3.72	+2.7
2023	26	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	32	32	191	770	189	35	29	100%	6.0	24.5%	4.5%	20.0%	3.9%	3.73	3.72	+2.7
2023	26	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	32	32	191	770	189	35	29	100%	6.0	24.5%	4.5%	20.0%	3.8%	3.73	3.65	+2.9
2024	27	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	33	33	209	803	220	36	26	100%	6.3	27.4%	4.5%	22.9%	3.3%	3.23	3.18	+4.5
2024	27	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	33	33	209	803	220	36	26	100%	6.3	27.4%	4.5%	22.9%	3.3%	3.23	3.18	+4.5
2024	27	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	33	33	209	803	220	36	26	100%	6.3	27.4%	4.5%	22.9%	3.2%	3.23	3.13	+4.6
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	141	578	184	35	20	100%	5.0	32.3%	5.8%	26.5%	3.8%	3.39	3.21	+2.9
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	141	578	184	35	20	100%	5.0	32.3%	5.8%	26.5%	3.8%	3.39	3.21	+2.9
2025	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	28	141	578	184	35	20	100%	5.0	31.8%	6.1%	25.8%	3.5%	3.39	3.08	+3.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			175	175	1007	4063	1071	218	138	100%	5.8	26.4%	5.4%	21.0%	3.4%	3.60	3.40	+18.5
▸ 2026 season
YTD	29	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	29	29	172	686	187	43	27	100%	5.9	27.3%	6.3%	21.0%	4.0%	3.72	3.81	+2.3
YTD	29	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	29	29	172	686	187	43	27	100%	5.9	27.3%	6.3%	21.0%	4.0%	3.72	3.81	+2.3
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	29	MLB RAW	SEA	29	29	172	686	187	43	27	100%	5.9	27.3%	6.3%	21.0%	3.9%	3.72	3.75	+2.4
SO FAR	29	MLB RAW	SEA	29	29	172	686	187	43	27	100%	5.9	27.3%	6.3%	21.0%	3.9%	3.72	3.75	+2.4
ROS	29	MLB MLE	SEA	3	3	16	66	18	4	2	100%	5.2	27.8%	5.9%	21.9%	3.7%	3.48	3.51	+0.3
ROS	29	MLB CTX	SEA	3	3	16	68	19	4	2	100%	5.3	27.8%	5.9%	21.9%	3.6%	3.43	3.46	+0.3
2026 TOT	29	MLB MLE	SEA	—	—	188	752	205	47	29	—	—	27.3%	6.2%	21.1%	3.9%	3.70	3.78	+2.5
FULL	29	MLB A+C	SEA	—	—	188	792	205	47	29	—	—	25.9%	5.9%	20.0%	3.7%	3.69	3.69	+2.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	SEA	29	29	173	730	200	45	29	100%	6.0	27.4%	6.2%	21.2%	4.0%	4.04	4.13	+1.6
2028	31	MLB MLE	SEA	27	27	161	681	181	45	29	100%	6.0	26.6%	6.6%	20.1%	4.2%	4.23	4.36	+1.0
2029	32	MLB MLE	SEA	25	25	149	630	163	44	28	100%	6.0	25.8%	7.0%	18.9%	4.4%	4.46	4.62	+0.5
2030	33	MLB MLE	SEA	23	23	137	578	144	43	27	100%	6.0	25.0%	7.4%	17.6%	4.7%	4.72	4.90	0.0
2031	34	MLB MLE	SEA	21	21	125	526	127	42	26	100%	5.9	24.1%	7.9%	16.2%	5.0%	5.01	5.20	-0.4
2027	30	MLB CTX	SEA	29	29	173	730	200	45	28	100%	6.0	27.4%	6.2%	21.2%	3.9%	3.99	4.08	+1.6
2028	31	MLB CTX	SEA	27	27	161	680	181	45	28	100%	6.0	26.6%	6.6%	20.1%	4.1%	4.17	4.30	+1.0
2029	32	MLB CTX	SEA	25	25	149	629	162	44	27	100%	6.0	25.8%	7.0%	18.9%	4.3%	4.40	4.56	+0.5
2030	33	MLB CTX	SEA	23	23	137	578	144	43	27	100%	6.0	25.0%	7.4%	17.6%	4.6%	4.66	4.84	0.0
2031	34	MLB CTX	SEA	21	21	125	528	127	42	26	100%	6.0	24.1%	7.9%	16.2%	4.9%	4.94	5.13	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		302	302	1768	7274	1904	440	276	100%	5.9	26.2%	6.1%	20.1%	3.8%	3.93	3.74	+24.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	823	215	50	31	100%	5.9	26.2%	6.1%	20.1%	3.8%	3.93	3.74	+2.8
Career	—	MLE		205	205	1157	4645	1218	259	154	100%	5.6	26.2%	5.6%	20.6%	3.3%	3.41	3.42	+21.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		35	35	200	803	210	45	27	100%	5.6	26.2%	5.6%	20.6%	3.3%	3.41	3.42	+2.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Logan Gilbert (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.55	29.9%	5.2%	3.5%	—	4.36	26.7%	20.1%	484	+0.81	—	—	—
Masahiro Tanaka R 2018 · 3.71 FIP	29	SP	3.71	25.0%	5.5%	3.7%	.279	4.02	20.2%	15.1%	230	+0.31	3.34	918	70
Jake Odorizzi R 2019 · 3.16 FIP	29	SP	3.16	27.1%	8.1%	2.4%	.299	4.33	19.8%	12.5%	225	+1.17	3.16	1,048	68
Chris Archer R 2018 · 3.64 FIP	29	SP	3.64	25.4%	7.2%	3.2%	.331	4.80	26.8%	17.1%	153	+1.16	2.85	1,018	68
Jimmy Nelson R 2017 · 2.76 FIP	28	SP	2.76	27.3%	6.5%	2.1%	.333	4.28	26.9%	12.3%	62	+1.52	1.32	650	64
Chase Anderson R 2017 · 3.30 FIP	29	SP	3.30	23.4%	7.0%	2.3%	.259	4.81	20.8%	12.5%	331	+1.51	3.30	1,146	64
Rick Porcello R 2018 · 3.75 FIP	29	SP	3.75	23.5%	5.9%	3.4%	.276	4.16	19.1%	13.5%	233	+0.41	3.13	1,023	63
Gerrit Cole R 2020 · 3.59 FIP	29	SP	3.59	32.6%	5.9%	4.5%	.239	2.94	30.8%	24.9%	591	-0.65	2.48	1,829	59
Jacob deGrom R 2017 · 3.35 FIP	29	SP	3.35	28.9%	6.5%	3.4%	.300	2.04	32.9%	27.5%	489	-1.31	0.74	1,538	59
Zack Wheeler R 2019 · 3.28 FIP	29	SP	3.28	23.6%	5.6%	2.7%	.308	2.47	26.6%	21.3%	437	-0.81	2.28	1,586	58
Stephen Strasburg R 2017 · 2.42 FIP	29	SP	2.42	29.1%	6.0%	1.8%	.267	3.08	29.4%	23.0%	339	+0.66	2.42	811	58
Matt Harvey R 2018 · 4.17 FIP	29	SP	4.17	19.8%	5.3%	3.8%	.294	4.74	16.9%	9.2%	222	+0.57	2.90	806	56
Michael Pineda R 2017 · 4.36 FIP	28	SP	4.36	22.4%	5.1%	4.6%	.300	3.51	23.2%	18.4%	173	-0.85	2.00	786	55
Kevin Gausman R 2020 · 3.14 FIP	29	SP	3.14	32.2%	6.5%	3.5%	.296	2.70	29.6%	23.7%	552	-0.44	2.34	1,930	55
Shohei Ohtani R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	29	SP	3.58	31.5%	10.4%	3.3%	.230	2.13	29.7%	23.1%	133	-1.45	1.76	613	55
Sonny Gray R 2019 · 3.07 FIP	29	SP	3.07	29.0%	9.5%	2.2%	.251	3.31	26.5%	17.9%	311	+0.24	2.55	1,792	55
Danny Salazar R 2017 · 3.34 FIP	27	SP	3.34	33.0%	10.0%	3.2%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.34	425	53
Anthony DeSclafani R 2019 · 3.99 FIP	29	SP	3.99	24.0%	6.3%	3.9%	.268	3.98	21.1%	14.5%	220	-0.01	3.38	981	53
Trevor Bauer R 2020 · 2.44 FIP	29	SP	2.44	36.0%	5.8%	3.0%	.209	3.79	31.7%	23.4%	108	+1.35	2.16	1,111	53
Carlos Carrasco R 2016 · 3.59 FIP	29	SP	3.59	25.0%	5.3%	3.5%	.285	3.02	28.8%	23.7%	472	-0.57	2.67	1,455	52
Kyle Hendricks R 2019 · 3.39 FIP	29	SP	3.39	20.5%	4.2%	2.7%	.281	4.38	18.0%	13.1%	347	+0.99	3.02	1,685	48

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.6	155	26.7%	6.6%	1.64	4.27
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Kutter Crawford ('24)	2.0	130	23.9%	7.2%	1.45	4.47
Mike Minor ('22)	3.8	126	22.3%	7.2%	1.44	4.38
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68