Logan Gilbert — OGILVIE

Logan Gilbert P Seattle Mariners

Age 29 RHP 6'6" / 215 lbs MLB Svc 4.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 4.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION114 act + 76 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9687vR 78

ERA3.23

FIP3.28

K%27.5%

BB%5.2%

K-BB%22.4%

ROS IP76

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 190 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL6060

CMD7070

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7196.0

Whiff%

p7929.8%

p7326.5%

xwOBA vs

p590.303

CH+1.7 (7%)

FB+0.8 (40%)

CU (8%)

CT-0.6 (8%)

SL-1.6 (23%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2021

Service 4.837 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$4M	+1.9	$15M	+$11M
2027	Arb-3	$17M	+3.1	$23M	+$7M
Totals		$22M		$38M	+$18M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2019	22	MIX	3 levels	26	26	135	521	165	33	7	100%	5.2	24.6%	7.2%	17.4%	2.6%	2.13	3.38	—
2019	22	MIX	3 levels	26	26	135	521	165	33	7	100%	5.2	31.7%	6.3%	25.3%	1.3%	2.13	2.06	—
2021	24	MIX	2 levels	25	25	124	521	133	26	17	100%	5.0	25.4%	5.2%	20.3%	3.6%	4.56	3.56	+2.7
2021	24	MIX	2 levels	25	25	124	521	133	26	17	100%	5.0	25.5%	5.0%	20.5%	3.3%	4.56	3.37	+3.0
2022	25	MLB	Seattle Mariners	32	32	186	766	174	47	19	100%	5.8	22.7%	6.1%	16.6%	2.6%	3.20	3.39	+4.4
2022	25	MLB	Seattle Mariners	32	32	186	766	174	47	19	100%	5.8	22.7%	6.1%	16.6%	2.5%	3.20	3.32	+4.5
2023	26	MLB	Seattle Mariners	32	32	191	770	189	35	29	100%	6.0	24.5%	4.5%	20.0%	4.0%	3.73	3.78	+3.6
2023	26	MLB	Seattle Mariners	32	32	191	770	189	35	29	100%	6.0	24.5%	4.5%	20.0%	3.8%	3.73	3.65	+3.9
2024	27	MLB	Seattle Mariners	33	33	209	803	220	36	26	100%	6.3	27.4%	4.5%	22.9%	3.4%	3.23	3.23	+5.3
2024	27	MLB	Seattle Mariners	33	33	209	803	220	36	26	100%	6.3	27.4%	4.5%	22.9%	3.2%	3.23	3.13	+5.5
2025	28	MIX	2 levels	28	28	141	578	184	35	20	100%	5.0	32.3%	5.8%	26.5%	3.9%	3.39	3.26	+3.5
2025	28	MIX	2 levels	28	28	141	578	184	35	20	100%	5.0	31.8%	6.1%	25.8%	3.5%	3.39	3.08	+3.8
▸ 2026 Season
2026	29	MLB	Seattle Mariners	19	19	114	449	119	23	14	100%	6.0	26.5%	5.1%	21.4%	3.1%	3.32	3.22	+2.9
ROS	29	MLB	SEA	13	13	76	321	88	17	11	100%	5.8	27.5%	5.2%	22.4%	3.4%	3.23	3.28	+1.4
ROS	29	MLB	SEA	13	13	76	321	88	17	11	100%	5.8	27.5%	5.2%	22.4%	3.3%	3.18	3.23	+1.5
2026 TOT	29	MLB	SEA	—	—	190	770	207	40	25	—	—	26.9%	5.1%	21.8%	3.2%	3.28	3.24	+4.8
2026 FULL	29	MLB	SEA	—	—	190	802	207	40	25	—	—	25.8%	4.9%	20.9%	3.1%	3.26	3.22	+4.8
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	30	MLB	SEA	29	29	173	730	199	40	26	100%	6.0	27.2%	5.5%	21.7%	3.6%	3.73	3.84	+3.2
2028	31	MLB	SEA	27	27	161	681	180	40	26	100%	6.0	26.4%	5.8%	20.6%	3.8%	3.93	4.07	+2.5
2029	32	MLB	SEA	25	25	149	630	161	39	26	100%	6.0	25.6%	6.2%	19.4%	4.0%	4.17	4.32	+1.9
2030	33	MLB	SEA	23	23	137	578	143	38	25	100%	6.0	24.8%	6.7%	18.1%	4.3%	4.43	4.60	+1.3
2031	34	MLB	SEA	21	21	125	526	126	38	24	100%	5.9	23.9%	7.2%	16.7%	4.6%	4.72	4.91	+0.7
2032	35	MLB	SEA	19	19	112	472	108	36	23	100%	5.9	22.9%	7.7%	15.2%	5.0%	5.03	5.24	+0.2
2033	36	MLB	SEA	16	16	99	418	91	35	22	100%	6.2	21.9%	8.3%	13.6%	5.3%	5.38	5.61	-0.3
2027	30	MLB	SEA	29	29	173	730	199	40	25	100%	6.0	27.2%	5.5%	21.7%	3.5%	3.68	3.79	+3.3
2028	31	MLB	SEA	27	27	161	680	180	39	25	100%	6.0	26.4%	5.8%	20.6%	3.7%	3.88	4.02	+2.6
2029	32	MLB	SEA	25	25	149	629	161	39	25	100%	6.0	25.6%	6.2%	19.4%	3.9%	4.11	4.26	+2.0
2030	33	MLB	SEA	23	23	137	578	143	39	24	100%	6.0	24.8%	6.7%	18.1%	4.2%	4.37	4.54	+1.4
2031	34	MLB	SEA	21	21	125	528	126	38	24	100%	6.0	23.9%	7.2%	16.7%	4.5%	4.66	4.85	+0.8
2032	35	MLB	SEA	19	19	112	473	108	36	23	100%	5.9	22.9%	7.7%	15.2%	4.8%	4.96	5.17	+0.3
2033	36	MLB	SEA	16	16	99	418	92	35	22	100%	6.2	21.9%	8.3%	13.6%	5.2%	5.31	5.54	-0.2
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			337	337	1981	8182	2100	480	304	100%	5.9	25.7%	5.9%	19.8%	3.7%	3.91	3.71	+39.1
/ 200 IP	—			34	34	200	826	212	48	31	100%	5.9	25.7%	5.9%	19.8%	3.7%	3.91	3.71	+3.9
Career	—			195	195	1099	4408	1150	239	147	100%	5.6	26.1%	5.4%	20.7%	3.3%	3.36	3.41	+25.5
/ 200 IP	—			35	35	200	802	209	43	27	100%	5.6	26.1%	5.4%	20.7%	3.3%	3.36	3.41	+4.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Logan Gilbert (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.59	29.9%	5.2%	3.6%	—	4.06	26.5%	20.6%	484	+0.47	—	—	—
Yu Darvish R 2026 · 2.90 FIP	29	SP	2.90	30.6%	7.6%	2.6%	.284	3.86	29.1%	21.2%	405	+0.96	1.91	1,253	39
Jason Hammel R 2029 · 3.43 FIP	32	SP	3.43	24.2%	5.1%	3.2%	.282	4.26	18.4%	11.9%	474	+0.83	3.43	645	39
Chase Anderson R 2026 · 3.42 FIP	29	SP	3.42	23.4%	7.0%	2.6%	.259	5.00	20.8%	12.5%	331	+1.58	3.42	1,146	38
Ian Kennedy R 2027 · 4.46 FIP	30	SP	4.46	24.4%	6.7%	4.7%	.293	4.91	21.1%	13.0%	469	+0.45	2.87	864	38
Jimmy Nelson R 2025 · 2.87 FIP	28	SP	2.87	27.3%	6.5%	2.3%	.333	4.37	26.9%	12.3%	62	+1.50	1.32	650	37
Masahiro Tanaka R 2026 · 3.69 FIP	29	SP	3.69	25.0%	5.5%	3.7%	.279	4.00	20.2%	15.1%	230	+0.31	3.33	918	36
Justin Verlander R 2029 · 3.51 FIP	32	SP	3.51	21.1%	5.8%	2.7%	.265	3.18	29.6%	23.4%	648	-0.33	2.24	1,584	36
Carlos Carrasco R 2026 · 3.60 FIP	29	SP	3.60	25.0%	5.3%	3.5%	.285	3.03	28.8%	23.7%	472	-0.57	2.67	1,455	36
Zack Wheeler R 2026 · 3.28 FIP	29	SP	3.28	23.6%	5.6%	2.7%	.308	2.50	26.6%	21.3%	437	-0.78	2.31	1,536	36
Stephen Strasburg R 2026 · 2.42 FIP	29	SP	2.42	29.1%	6.0%	1.8%	.267	3.08	29.4%	23.0%	339	+0.66	2.42	811	36
Kodai Senga R 2027 · 3.40 FIP	30	SP	3.40	29.1%	11.1%	2.5%	.274	4.64	22.8%	10.3%	164	+1.24	3.40	330	35
Chris Archer R 2026 · 3.52 FIP	29	SP	3.52	25.4%	7.2%	3.0%	.331	4.65	26.8%	17.1%	153	+1.13	2.88	1,018	35
Clay Buchholz R 2027 · 2.49 FIP	30	SP	2.49	22.8%	4.9%	1.3%	.324	4.23	17.3%	9.4%	261	+1.74	2.49	433	35
Jake Odorizzi R 2026 · 3.16 FIP	29	SP	3.16	27.1%	8.1%	2.4%	.299	4.25	19.8%	12.5%	225	+1.09	3.16	1,048	35
Yoshinobu Yamamoto R 2024 · 3.26 FIP	27	SP	3.26	24.9%	5.6%	2.8%	.226	—	—	—	—	—	2.55	374	35
Matt Shoemaker R 2026 · 3.37 FIP	29	SP	3.37	21.4%	4.3%	2.8%	.310	4.36	22.4%	14.0%	137	+0.99	3.24	592	34
Josh Lowey R 2027 · 3.30 FIP	30	SP	3.30	21.1%	7.8%	1.8%	.311	2.34	26.7%	20.1%	231	-0.96	2.28	426	34
Mario Gonzalez R 2026 · 3.86 FIP	29	SP	3.86	17.9%	5.7%	2.8%	.276	4.19	14.1%	9.1%	104	+0.33	3.86	368	33
Rick Porcello R 2026 · 3.68 FIP	29	SP	3.68	23.5%	5.9%	3.3%	.276	4.10	19.1%	13.5%	233	+0.42	3.14	1,023	33
Anthony DeSclafani R 2026 · 4.04 FIP	29	SP	4.04	24.0%	6.3%	4.0%	.268	4.00	21.1%	14.5%	220	-0.04	3.41	981	33

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	8	142	25.8%	6.4%	1.61	4.25
Kenta Maeda ('24)	8	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Dylan Bundy ('22)	7	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
Michael Pineda ('22)	7	109	22.9%	5.0%	1.43	4.35
J.A. Happ ('21)	7	150	21.6%	7.1%	1.32	4.03
Masahiro Tanaka ('20)	6	153	22.6%	5.0%	1.41	3.88
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	6	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45