Logan Gilbert

P Seattle Mariners

Age 30 RHP 6'6" / 215 lbs MLB Svc 5.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 3.2 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANArb-3FA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	27	MLBSEA	33	33	209	3.23	3.13	27.4%	4.5%	5.9
2025	28	MIX2 levels	28	28	141	3.39	3.08	31.8%	6.1%	4.1	K 32.3% · BB 5.8% · FIP 3.21
2026	29	MLBSEA	32	32	186	3.73	3.68	27.3%	6.3%	3.9
2027PROJ	30	MLBSEA	27	27	164	3.69	3.82	29.1%	6.0%	3.1
2028PROJ	31	MLBSEA	24	24	141	3.85	4.00	28.4%	6.3%	2.3
2029PROJ	32	MLBSEA	21	21	125	4.08	4.24	27.6%	6.7%	1.6

Last 3 seasons WAR 13.9 · Next 3 projected WAR 7.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service5.837First FA2028

2027Arb-3$16M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%78

FB Velo77

xwOBA vs68

Form5.58 ERA (proj 3.69) · K 32.1% (proj 29.1%) · BB 7.5% (proj 6.0%) · last 60d · 31 IP through Oct 27

CompsCorey Kluber (age 30) · Masahiro Tanaka (age 30) · Tanner Roark (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10193vR 85

ERA3.69

FIP3.82

K%29.1%

BB%6.0%

K-BB%23.1%

Proj IP164

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 164 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7796.4

Whiff%

p8430.7%

p7827.3%

xwOBA vs

p680.294

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2021

Service 5.837 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-3	$16M	+3.1	$29M	+$13M
Totals		$16M		$29M	+$13M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	26	135	521	165	33	7	100%	5.2	24.6%	7.2%	17.4%	2.0%	2.13	3.04	—
2019	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	26	135	521	165	33	7	100%	5.2	31.7%	6.3%	25.3%	1.3%	2.13	2.06	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	124	521	133	26	17	100%	5.0	25.4%	5.2%	20.3%	3.5%	4.56	3.51	+2.9
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	124	521	133	26	17	100%	5.0	25.5%	5.0%	20.5%	3.3%	4.56	3.37	+3.1
2022	25	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	32	32	186	766	174	47	19	100%	5.8	22.7%	6.1%	16.6%	2.5%	3.20	3.36	+4.7
2022	25	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	32	32	186	766	174	47	19	100%	5.8	22.7%	6.1%	16.6%	2.5%	3.20	3.32	+4.8
2023	26	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	32	32	191	770	189	35	29	100%	6.0	24.5%	4.5%	20.0%	3.9%	3.73	3.72	+3.9
2023	26	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	32	32	191	770	189	35	29	100%	6.0	24.5%	4.5%	20.0%	3.8%	3.73	3.65	+4.1
2024	27	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	33	33	209	803	220	36	26	100%	6.3	27.4%	4.5%	22.9%	3.3%	3.23	3.18	+5.8
2024	27	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	33	33	209	803	220	36	26	100%	6.3	27.4%	4.5%	22.9%	3.3%	3.23	3.18	+5.8
2024	27	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	33	33	209	803	220	36	26	100%	6.3	27.4%	4.5%	22.9%	3.2%	3.23	3.13	+5.9
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	141	578	184	35	20	100%	5.0	32.3%	5.8%	26.5%	3.8%	3.39	3.21	+3.8
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	141	578	184	35	20	100%	5.0	32.3%	5.8%	26.5%	3.8%	3.39	3.21	+3.8
2025	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	28	141	578	184	35	20	100%	5.0	31.8%	6.1%	25.8%	3.5%	3.39	3.08	+4.1
2026	29	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	32	32	186	750	205	47	29	100%	5.8	27.3%	6.3%	21.1%	4.0%	3.73	3.76	+3.7
2026	29	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	32	32	186	750	205	47	29	100%	5.8	27.3%	6.3%	21.1%	4.0%	3.73	3.76	+3.7
2026	29	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	32	32	186	750	205	47	29	100%	5.8	27.3%	6.3%	21.1%	3.9%	3.73	3.68	+3.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			178	178	1021	4127	1089	222	140	100%	5.7	26.4%	5.4%	21.0%	3.4%	3.60	3.40	+25.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	SEA	27	27	164	692	202	41	26	100%	6.1	29.1%	6.0%	23.1%	3.7%	3.69	3.82	+3.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	SEA	24	24	141	597	169	38	23	100%	5.9	28.4%	6.3%	22.0%	3.9%	3.90	4.05	+2.3
2029	32	MLB MLE	SEA	21	21	125	528	146	36	22	100%	6.0	27.6%	6.7%	20.8%	4.2%	4.14	4.30	+1.6
2030	33	MLB MLE	SEA	18	18	109	462	123	33	21	100%	6.1	26.7%	7.2%	19.5%	4.5%	4.40	4.58	+1.0
2031	34	MLB MLE	SEA	15	15	91	385	100	30	18	100%	6.1	25.8%	7.7%	18.1%	4.8%	4.69	4.89	+0.5
2028	31	MLB CTX	SEA	24	24	141	595	169	38	23	100%	5.9	28.4%	6.3%	22.0%	3.8%	3.85	4.00	+2.3
2029	32	MLB CTX	SEA	21	21	125	528	146	36	22	100%	6.0	27.6%	6.7%	20.8%	4.1%	4.08	4.24	+1.6
2030	33	MLB CTX	SEA	18	18	109	460	123	33	20	100%	6.1	26.7%	7.2%	19.5%	4.3%	4.34	4.52	+1.0
2031	34	MLB CTX	SEA	15	15	91	384	99	30	18	100%	6.1	25.8%	7.7%	18.1%	4.6%	4.62	4.82	+0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		256	256	1488	6099	1627	358	222	100%	5.8	26.7%	5.9%	20.8%	3.6%	3.78	3.59	+32.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	820	219	48	30	100%	5.8	26.7%	5.9%	20.8%	3.6%	3.78	3.59	+4.4
Career	—	MLE		208	208	1171	4709	1236	263	156	100%	5.6	26.2%	5.6%	20.7%	3.3%	3.42	3.41	+30.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		36	36	200	804	211	45	27	100%	5.6	26.2%	5.6%	20.7%	3.3%	3.42	3.41	+4.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAATacoma Rainiers · 10 IPFIP 2.12 → 2.30 (+0.18)K% 25.6% → 22.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.58%	—	×0.860	22.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.30%	—	×0.900	8.37%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.204	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 141).

Result: FIP 2.12 → 2.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Modesto Nuts · 62 IPFIP 1.87 → 2.97 (+1.10)K% 30.0% → 23.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.04%	—	×0.770	23.13%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.94%	—	×1.150	5.68%
HR / BF /BF	1.23%	÷0.768	×1.250	2.01%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 54).

Result: FIP 1.87 → 2.97, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAArkansas Travelers · 50 IPFIP 2.21 → 3.07 (+0.86)K% 28.7% → 23.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.72%	—	×0.810	23.26%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.69%	—	×1.100	8.46%
HR / BF /BF	1.03%	÷0.784	×1.200	1.57%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 57).

Result: FIP 2.21 → 3.07, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AWest Virginia Power · 23 IPFIP 1.68 → 3.16 (+1.49)K% 43.4% → 32.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	43.37%	—	×0.740	32.10%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.23%	—	×1.180	8.53%
HR / BF /BF	2.41%	÷1.016	×1.300	3.08%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).

Result: FIP 1.68 → 3.16, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Logan Gilbert (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.7%	—	4.29	27.6%	20.9%	376	+0.47	—	—	—
Corey Kluber R 2016 · 3.10 FIP	30	SP	3.10	26.4%	6.5%	2.6%	.267	2.73	29.6%	25.0%	454	-0.37	2.16	1,636	58
Masahiro Tanaka R 2019 · 4.01 FIP	30	SP	4.01	19.6%	5.3%	3.5%	.292	4.08	22.3%	18.2%	48	+0.07	2.82	1,054	55
Tanner Roark R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	30	SP	3.88	21.4%	7.6%	3.0%	.294	4.48	20.3%	13.2%	393	+0.60	2.40	1,194	54
Chase Anderson R 2018 · 4.98 FIP	30	SP	4.98	19.9%	8.9%	4.4%	.235	4.93	20.1%	11.9%	253	-0.05	3.30	1,260	53
Yu Darvish R 2017 · 3.59 FIP	30	SP	3.59	27.3%	7.4%	3.4%	.279	3.53	30.7%	23.5%	295	-0.06	1.97	1,798	52
Tom Koehler R 2016 · 4.38 FIP	30	SP	4.38	19.0%	9.8%	3.0%	.291	4.66	22.4%	13.4%	110	+0.28	3.76	822	51
Kyle Gibson R 2018 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP	3.97	21.7%	9.3%	2.8%	.282	3.91	21.2%	12.9%	409	-0.06	3.56	1,920	50
Shohei Ohtani R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	29	SP	3.58	31.5%	10.4%	3.3%	.230	2.13	29.7%	23.1%	133	-1.45	1.76	613	50
Orlando Hernandez R 2000 · 4.68 FIP	30	SP	4.68	17.2%	6.0%	4.2%	.255	4.38	18.6%	11.3%	241	-0.30	3.35	1,315	48
Mike Fiers R 2015 · 3.86 FIP	30	SP	3.86	23.7%	7.8%	3.2%	.277	4.73	19.9%	13.3%	494	+0.87	2.83	1,140	45
Marco Estrada R 2013 · 3.81 FIP	30	SP	3.81	23.0%	5.7%	3.5%	.260	4.34	20.4%	12.6%	508	+0.53	3.28	1,244	45
Adam Wainwright R 2012 · 3.04 FIP	30	SP	3.04	22.1%	5.9%	1.9%	.310	2.58	21.3%	17.1%	497	-0.46	2.03	2,666	43
Rodrigo Lopez R 2006 · 4.67 FIP	30	SP-	4.67	16.1%	6.7%	3.8%	.325	4.30	13.2%	7.9%	109	-0.37	4.06	1,344	43
Lance Lynn R 2017 · 4.68 FIP	30	SP	4.68	19.7%	9.4%	3.7%	.237	3.25	25.9%	17.8%	449	-1.43	2.85	2,006	43
Michael Pineda R 2019 · 3.79 FIP	30	SP	3.79	23.3%	4.5%	3.8%	.288	4.20	18.0%	13.4%	208	+0.41	2.00	1,034	43
Miles Mikolas R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	30	SP	4.11	18.8%	4.1%	3.8%	.295	4.02	18.4%	13.4%	266	-0.09	3.13	1,386	42
Robert Person R 2000 · 3.80 FIP	30	SP	3.80	22.1%	12.7%	1.8%	.278	4.75	19.5%	9.1%	308	+0.95	3.41	885	42
Rolando Arrojo R 2000 · 4.47 FIP	32	SP	4.47	16.1%	8.0%	3.1%	.291	3.68	16.4%	9.2%	185	-0.79	3.50	700	42
Miguel González R 2014 · 4.49 FIP	30	SP	4.49	16.5%	7.5%	3.4%	.268	4.26	16.6%	9.5%	457	-0.23	3.72	905	41
Jameson Taillon R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	30	SP	3.74	20.7%	4.4%	3.4%	.274	4.37	19.6%	14.2%	466	+0.63	3.12	1,401	40

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	8.3	150	26.9%	6.0%	1.43	3.79
Masahiro Tanaka ('20)	5.3	151	23.1%	4.8%	1.36	3.74
Michael Pineda ('22)	5.0	112	23.1%	5.3%	1.28	4.06
Pablo López ('25)	4.8	121	24.9%	6.3%	1.07	3.81
John Montefusco ('74-'86, 20 WAR*)	8.3	150	22.5%*	7.3%*	1.20*	4.16*
Floyd Bannister ('77-'92, 28 WAR*)	11.9	159	24.7%*	8.2%*	1.37*	4.18*
Luis Tiant ('64-'82, 62 WAR*)	17.4	183	23.8%*	7.6%*	1.31*	3.72*