Logan Gilbert — OGILVIE

Logan Gilbert P Seattle Mariners

+3.3 WAR

Age 29 RHP 6'6" / 215 lbs MLB Svc 4.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 3.3 · 2026

ERA3.56

FIP3.62

xFIP3.39

SIERA3.31

K%29.0%

BB%5.5%

K-BB%23.5%

IP174

trajectory · 10 yrs

3.3peak

2026

K†7070

FB Velo

p6495.5

Whiff%

p8330.5%

p6925.7%

xwOBA vs

p540.308

CH+1.7 (9%)

FB+0.8 (32%)

CU (12%)

CT-0.6 (13%)

SL-1.6 (21%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2019	22	AA	Arkansas Travelers	26	26	135	521	165	33	7	24.6%	7.2%	2.0%	2.13	3.04	+3.5
2021	24	MLB	Seattle Mariners	25	25	124	521	133	26	17	25.4%	5.2%	3.5%	4.56	3.53	+2.5
2022	25	MLB	Seattle Mariners	32	32	186	766	174	47	19	22.7%	6.1%	2.5%	3.20	3.31	+4.2
2023	26	MLB	Seattle Mariners	32	32	191	770	189	35	29	24.5%	4.5%	3.8%	3.73	3.68	+3.5
2024	27	MLB	Seattle Mariners	33	33	209	803	220	36	26	27.4%	4.5%	3.3%	3.23	3.18	+5.0
2025	28	MLB	Seattle Mariners	28	28	141	578	184	35	20	32.3%	5.8%	3.6%	3.39	3.10	+3.5
▸ 2026 Season
2026	29	MLB	Seattle Mariners	4	4	24	91	25	4	2	27.5%	4.4%	2.2%	4.18	2.54	+0.6
ROS	29	MLB	SEA	25	25	138	582	171	31	19	29.3%	5.3%	3.2%	3.03	3.07	+3.5
2026 Total	29	MLB	SEA	—	—	162	673	196	35	21	29.0%	5.2%	3.1%	3.20	2.99	+4.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	30	MLB	SEA	27	27	146	616	177	33	20	28.8%	5.4%	3.3%	3.50	3.55	+2.9
2028	31	MLB	SEA	24	24	131	552	156	31	19	28.2%	5.5%	3.4%	3.59	3.65	+2.4
2029	32	MLB	SEA	21	21	117	493	136	28	17	27.6%	5.7%	3.5%	3.70	3.77	+2.0
2030	33	MLB	SEA	19	19	104	438	118	26	16	26.9%	5.9%	3.5%	3.82	3.90	+1.6
2031	34	MLB	SEA	17	17	92	387	101	23	14	26.2%	6.1%	3.6%	3.95	4.04	+1.2
2032	35	MLB	SEA	15	15	80	339	86	21	13	25.5%	6.3%	3.8%	4.09	4.19	+0.9
2033	36	MLB	SEA	13	13	70	295	79	17	11	26.7%	5.7%	3.9%	4.08	4.08	+0.8
2034	37	MLB	SEA	11	11	60	254	66	15	10	25.9%	6.0%	4.0%	4.19	4.26	+0.5
2035	38	MLB	SEA	52	—	52	217	54	14	9	25.0%	6.3%	4.1%	4.34	4.44	+0.3
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			180	180	1009	4050	1056	220	127	26.1%	5.4%	3.1%	3.38	3.30	+22.9
/ 200 IP	—			36	36	200	803	209	44	25	26.1%	5.4%	3.1%	3.38	3.30	+4.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Logan Gilbert (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.52	30.2%	5.5%	3.4%	—	3.65	28.2%	22.7%	393	+0.13	—	—	—
Justin Verlander R 2029 · 3.48 FIP	32	SP	3.48	21.1%	5.8%	2.6%	.265	3.17	29.6%	23.4%	648	-0.31	2.27	1,584	42
Charlie Morton R 2028 · 3.48 FIP	31	SP	3.48	17.9%	6.3%	2.0%	.302	3.15	27.7%	18.9%	331	-0.33	2.52	1,534	40
Josh Lowey R 2027 · 3.33 FIP	30	SP	3.33	21.1%	7.8%	1.8%	.311	2.31	26.7%	20.1%	231	-1.02	2.25	426	40
Ian Kennedy R 2027 · 4.18 FIP	30	SP	4.18	24.4%	6.7%	4.2%	.293	4.92	21.1%	13.0%	469	+0.74	2.91	864	39
Chase Anderson R 2026 · 3.30 FIP	29	SP	3.30	23.4%	7.0%	2.3%	.259	4.80	20.8%	12.5%	331	+1.50	3.30	1,146	39
Jason Hammel R 2029 · 3.34 FIP	32	SP	3.34	24.2%	5.1%	3.0%	.282	4.33	18.4%	11.9%	474	+0.99	3.34	645	39
Zack Wheeler R 2026 · 3.20 FIP	29	SP	3.20	23.6%	5.6%	2.5%	.308	2.50	26.6%	21.3%	437	-0.70	2.32	1,443	38
Daniel McCutchen R 2029 · 4.32 FIP	32	SP	4.32	13.9%	4.4%	3.3%	.268	4.81	10.8%	4.9%	155	+0.49	4.32	287	38
Cory Riordan R 2027 · 4.21 FIP	30	SP	4.21	14.3%	5.0%	3.1%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	154	38
Matt Buschmann R 2028 · 4.02 FIP	31	SP	4.02	17.2%	8.7%	2.3%	.282	4.83	12.8%	4.4%	142	+0.81	4.02	277	37
Terry Doyle R 2026 · 3.20 FIP	29	SP	3.20	14.5%	3.6%	1.6%	.262	2.82	11.7%	6.1%	35	-0.38	2.82	193	37
Thad Weber R 2027 · 4.64 FIP	30	SP	4.64	13.7%	6.4%	3.5%	.293	4.59	11.2%	5.7%	202	-0.05	4.36	363	37
Zach Petrick R 2023 · 3.38 FIP	26	SP	3.38	14.8%	4.2%	1.8%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.38	157	36
Matt Shoemaker R 2026 · 3.28 FIP	29	SP	3.28	21.4%	4.3%	2.6%	.310	4.16	22.4%	14.0%	137	+0.88	3.20	592	36
Merrill Kelly R 2027 · 4.37 FIP	30	SP	4.37	20.3%	6.8%	3.9%	.289	3.76	21.1%	14.8%	390	-0.61	3.61	1,008	36
Iván Nova R 2026 · 4.13 FIP	29	SP	4.13	18.6%	3.9%	3.8%	.300	4.48	15.8%	10.9%	535	+0.35	4.13	810	36
Miguel González R 2028 · 4.53 FIP	31	SP	4.53	17.5%	7.9%	3.5%	.289	4.28	15.9%	9.0%	325	-0.25	3.76	469	36
Matt Harvey R 2026 · 4.04 FIP	29	SP	4.04	19.8%	5.3%	3.5%	.294	4.68	16.9%	9.2%	222	+0.64	2.90	806	36
Jordan Zimmermann R 2026 · 3.41 FIP	29	SP	3.41	19.7%	4.3%	2.6%	.297	4.68	16.1%	10.7%	417	+1.27	3.41	731	36
Manuel Flores R 2026 · 4.00 FIP	29	SP	4.00	13.8%	7.1%	2.1%	.317	3.58	14.4%	9.2%	263	-0.42	3.48	515	35

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2021

Service 4.837 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-2	$11M	+3.3	$26M	+$15M
2027	Arb-3	$15M	+2.9	$24M	+$9M
Totals		$26M		$50M	+$25M