Kyle Gibson
P
Durham Bulls
+0.5
WAR
Age 38
RHP
6'6" / 200 lbs
AAA
peak 0.5 · 2026
ERA4.79
FIP4.62
xFIP5.72
SIERA5.32
K%20.9%
BB%8.6%
K-BB%12.2%
IP95
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2026
K†4550
FB Velo
p1091.5
Whiff%
p1720.6%
K%
p1013.7%
xwOBA vs
p100.441
SI (36%)
CU (11%)
CT-3.1 (10%)
FB-4.4 (45%)
CH-4.6 (13%)
SL-4.9 (21%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 27 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 32 | 32 | 195 | 821 | 145 | 59 | 18 | 17.7% | 7.2% | 2.2% | 3.84 | 3.71 | +3.5 |
| 2016 | 28 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 28 | 28 | 163 | 714 | 114 | 56 | 20 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.2% | 4.70 | 4.54 | +1.4 |
| 2017 | 29 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 32 | 32 | 175 | 761 | 144 | 65 | 25 | 18.6% | 8.6% | 3.1% | 4.77 | 4.30 | +2.0 |
| 2018 | 30 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 32 | 32 | 197 | 826 | 179 | 77 | 23 | 21.7% | 9.3% | 2.4% | 3.62 | 3.76 | +3.4 |
| 2019 | 31 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 34 | 29 | 160 | 706 | 160 | 56 | 23 | 22.7% | 7.9% | 3.4% | 4.84 | 4.05 | +2.3 |
| 2020 | 32 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 12 | 12 | 67 | 301 | 58 | 29 | 12 | 19.3% | 9.6% | 4.3% | 5.35 | 5.05 | -0.0 |
| 2021 | 33 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 31 | 30 | 182 | 754 | 155 | 62 | 17 | 20.6% | 8.2% | 2.2% | 3.71 | 3.61 | +3.5 |
| 2022 | 34 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 31 | 31 | 168 | 718 | 144 | 48 | 24 | 20.1% | 6.7% | 3.3% | 5.05 | 4.04 | +2.4 |
| 2023 | 35 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 33 | 33 | 192 | 807 | 157 | 55 | 23 | 19.5% | 6.8% | 2.7% | 4.73 | 3.80 | +3.3 |
| 2024 | 36 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 30 | 30 | 170 | 722 | 151 | 67 | 23 | 20.9% | 9.3% | 3.2% | 4.24 | 4.26 | +2.0 |
| 2025 | 37 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 11 | 11 | 42 | 189 | 45 | 15 | 8 | 21.4% | 7.8% | 3.8% | 6.26 | 4.37 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 38 | MLB | PHI | 16 | 16 | 88 | 373 | 72 | 32 | 12 | 19.3% | 8.6% | 3.3% | 4.86 | 4.75 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 39 | MLB | PHI | 14 | 14 | 76 | 319 | 65 | 26 | 11 | 20.5% | 8.1% | 3.4% | 4.74 | 4.67 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 40 | MLB | PHI | 12 | 12 | 65 | 273 | 54 | 23 | 10 | 19.6% | 8.4% | 3.6% | 4.81 | 4.85 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 306 | 300 | 1710 | 7319 | 1444 | 590 | 213 | 19.7% | 8.1% | 2.9% | 4.45 | 4.05 | +24.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 36 | 35 | 200 | 856 | 169 | 69 | 25 | 19.7% | 8.1% | 2.9% | 4.45 | 4.05 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kyle Gibson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.75 | 19.3% | 8.6% | 3.3% | — | 4.75 | 20.1% | 11.8% | 140 | +0.00 | — | — | — |
| Walter Silva R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 38 | SP- | 4.13 | 14.8% | 7.4% | 2.5% | .311 | 3.92 | 10.4% | 3.7% | 209 | -0.21 | 3.67 | 428 | 47 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 38 | SW | 4.17 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.0% | .272 | 3.38 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.79 | 2.67 | 295 | 44 |
| Peter Moylan R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 38 | SW | 3.58 | 18.9% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .211 | 4.94 | 17.8% | 6.2% | 28 | +1.36 | 3.11 | 174 | 43 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2026 · 5.44 FIP | 38 | SW | 5.44 | 15.9% | 7.2% | 5.1% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.21 | 225 | 43 |
| Ervin Santana R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 38 | SW | 4.32 | 18.8% | 7.6% | 3.4% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.75 | 720 | 42 |
| Jeremy Guthrie R 2025 · 4.87 FIP | 37 | SP- | 4.87 | 11.6% | 8.6% | 3.0% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.87 | 235 | 42 |
| Chien-Ming Wang R 2024 · 4.56 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.56 | 13.0% | 7.8% | 2.9% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.26 | 183 | 39 |
| Kyle Lohse R 2025 · 5.01 FIP | 37 | SW | 5.01 | 14.8% | 6.0% | 4.4% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.01 | 211 | 39 |
| Zack Segovia R 2024 · 4.52 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.52 | 17.6% | 13.6% | 2.2% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.37 | 144 | 39 |
| Sergio Mitre R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 38 | SP- | 4.54 | 11.8% | 6.5% | 2.9% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.54 | 156 | 39 |
| Tim Hudson R 2028 · 4.40 FIP | 40 | SP- | 4.40 | 12.2% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.40 | 124 | 38 |
| Jose Oyervides R 2025 · 5.76 FIP | 37 | SP- | 5.76 | 16.3% | 11.2% | 4.8% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.00 | 407 | 38 |
| Colby Lewis R 2024 · 4.67 FIP | 36 | SP- | 4.67 | 15.5% | 5.9% | 3.9% | .239 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 321 | 38 |
| J.D. Martin R 2024 · 5.87 FIP | 36 | SP- | 5.87 | 13.9% | 12.8% | 4.2% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.85 | 289 | 37 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2024 · 4.65 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.65 | 15.8% | 7.1% | 3.6% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 119 | 35 |
| Pablo Ortega R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 38 | SP- | 4.51 | 8.6% | 7.3% | 2.2% | .291 | 4.23 | 11.5% | 6.0% | 236 | -0.28 | 4.03 | 375 | 35 |
| Jonathan Castellanos R 2025 · 5.22 FIP | 37 | SW | 5.22 | 11.0% | 9.0% | 3.5% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 394 | 34 |
| Matt Belisle R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.33 | 15.4% | 6.2% | 3.2% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.49 | 174 | 34 |
| Adam Wainwright R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 38 | SW | 3.99 | 20.6% | 5.7% | 3.5% | .245 | 3.91 | 17.8% | 11.2% | 499 | -0.08 | 2.03 | 1,127 | 34 |
| Chris Smith R 2024 · 4.81 FIP | 36 | SP- | 4.81 | 15.6% | 7.5% | 3.8% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 413 | 34 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.