Lance Lynn

PosP

B/TS/R

Born1987-05-12

Age (2026)39

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	28	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	31	31	175	751	167	63	13	100%	5.7	22.2%	8.4%	13.8%	1.9%	3.03	3.31	+3.5
2015	28	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	31	31	175	751	167	63	13	100%	5.7	22.2%	8.4%	13.8%	1.7%	3.03	3.24	+3.6
2016	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	3	7	28	7	0	0	100%	2.2	25.0%	0.0%	25.0%	0.0%	1.35	0.99	—
2016	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	3	3	7	28	7	0	0	100%	2.2	25.0%	0.0%	25.0%	0.0%	1.35	1.00	—
2017	30	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	33	33	186	776	153	73	27	100%	5.6	19.7%	9.4%	10.3%	3.7%	3.43	4.68	+0.5
2017	30	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	33	33	186	776	153	73	27	100%	5.6	19.7%	9.4%	10.3%	3.5%	3.43	4.52	+0.8
2018	31	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	31	29	157	700	161	73	14	94%	5.1	23.0%	10.4%	12.6%	1.9%	4.77	3.51	+2.7
2018	31	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	31	29	157	700	161	73	14	94%	5.1	23.0%	10.4%	12.6%	2.0%	4.77	3.60	+2.5
2019	32	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	33	33	208	875	246	59	21	100%	6.3	28.1%	6.7%	21.4%	2.3%	3.67	2.85	+5.5
2019	32	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	33	33	208	875	246	59	21	100%	6.3	28.1%	6.7%	21.4%	2.4%	3.67	2.90	+5.3
2020	33	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	13	13	84	344	89	25	13	100%	6.5	25.9%	7.3%	18.6%	3.5%	3.32	3.77	+1.2
2020	33	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	13	13	84	344	89	25	13	100%	6.5	25.9%	7.3%	18.6%	3.8%	3.32	3.89	+1.0
2021	34	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	28	28	157	641	176	43	18	100%	5.6	27.5%	6.7%	20.7%	2.8%	2.69	3.15	+3.4
2021	34	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	28	28	157	641	176	43	18	100%	5.6	27.5%	6.7%	20.7%	2.8%	2.69	3.17	+3.4
2022	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	132	558	132	21	21	100%	5.5	24.2%	3.7%	20.5%	3.6%	4.37	3.53	+2.2
2022	35	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	132	558	132	21	21	100%	5.5	23.7%	3.8%	19.9%	3.8%	4.37	3.65	+2.0
2023	36	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	32	32	184	808	191	66	44	100%	5.7	23.6%	8.2%	15.5%	5.2%	5.73	5.01	-0.2
2023	36	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	32	32	184	808	191	66	44	100%	5.7	23.6%	8.2%	15.5%	5.2%	5.73	5.01	-0.2
2023	36	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	32	32	184	808	191	66	44	100%	5.7	23.6%	8.2%	15.5%	5.4%	5.73	5.21	-0.6
2024	37	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	121	531	117	46	16	100%	5.0	21.3%	8.6%	12.7%	3.4%	4.09	4.24	+0.9
2024	37	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	121	531	117	46	16	100%	5.0	21.3%	8.6%	12.7%	3.4%	4.09	4.24	+0.9
2024	37	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	121	531	117	46	16	100%	5.0	22.0%	8.7%	13.4%	3.0%	4.09	4.03	+1.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			245	243	1390	5918	1416	465	185	99%	5.7	23.9%	7.9%	16.1%	3.1%	3.86	3.80	+18.5
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	39	MLB	STL	2	2	9	38	8	3	1	100%	4.5	21.6%	8.6%	13.0%	3.6%	4.73	4.74	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	40	MLB MLE	STL	16	16	93	394	81	37	16	100%	5.8	20.5%	9.3%	11.1%	4.1%	5.00	5.18	-0.3
2027	40	MLB CTX	STL	16	16	93	393	80	37	15	100%	5.8	20.5%	9.3%	11.1%	3.8%	4.84	5.02	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		261	259	1484	6312	1497	502	200	99%	5.7	23.7%	7.9%	15.8%	3.2%	3.93	3.84	+18.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	851	202	68	27	99%	5.7	23.7%	7.9%	15.8%	3.2%	3.93	3.84	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		252	250	1411	6012	1438	468	187	99%	5.6	23.9%	7.8%	16.1%	3.1%	3.91	3.77	+18.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		36	35	200	852	204	66	26	99%	5.6	23.9%	7.8%	16.1%	3.1%	3.91	3.77	+2.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Lance Lynn (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.74	21.6%	8.6%	3.6%	—	5.18	20.5%	11.1%	93	+0.44	—	—	—
John Lackey R 2017 · 5.05 FIP	38	SP	5.05	20.4%	6.8%	5.1%	.260	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	577	66
Kyle Lohse R 2016 · 4.97 FIP	37	SP	4.97	14.8%	6.0%	4.3%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.77	211	57
Yasutomo Kubo R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	38	SP	3.98	20.4%	4.7%	3.6%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	152	56
Jeremy Guthrie R 2016 · 4.85 FIP	37	SP	4.85	11.6%	8.6%	3.0%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	4.85	235	53
Aaron Harang R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	37	SP	4.47	14.4%	6.4%	3.2%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	4.47	172	51
Francisco Campos R 2015 · 4.77 FIP	42	SP	4.77	11.5%	7.9%	3.0%	.303	4.08	12.2%	7.0%	197	-0.69	4.06	332	50
Tim Hudson R 2015 · 4.41 FIP	40	SP	4.41	12.2%	6.9%	2.7%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	4.41	124	50
Brad Penny R 2015 · 3.68 FIP	37	SP	3.68	12.0%	5.8%	1.6%	.346	—	—	—	—	—	3.68	135	49
Walter Silva R 2016 · 4.22 FIP	39	SP	4.22	10.3%	5.5%	2.4%	.294	4.35	10.0%	1.8%	235	+0.13	3.67	428	48
Sergio Mitre R 2019 · 4.54 FIP	38	SP	4.54	11.8%	6.5%	2.9%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	4.54	156	47
Pablo Ortega R 2016 · 4.01 FIP	39	SP	4.01	8.9%	4.8%	1.9%	.262	4.49	13.3%	7.1%	148	+0.48	4.01	375	43
Bartolo Colon R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	42	SP	3.67	16.7%	2.3%	3.1%	.302	4.60	14.5%	10.2%	481	+0.93	3.67	676	42
Ryan Vogelsong R 2016 · 4.79 FIP	39	SP-	4.79	16.7%	10.4%	3.2%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	4.45	217	41
R.A. Dickey R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	40	SP	4.31	14.3%	6.8%	2.8%	.253	4.63	17.0%	8.7%	360	+0.32	4.31	574	34
Jonathan Sánchez L 2019 · 4.73 FIP	36	SP	4.73	18.1%	8.3%	3.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.73	109	31
CC Sabathia L 2019 · 5.19 FIP	39	SP	5.19	22.9%	8.3%	5.4%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	756	30
Barry Zito L 2015 · 4.52 FIP	37	SP	4.52	13.6%	10.7%	2.2%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	4.52	138	25
Wandy Rodriguez L 2015 · 3.83 FIP	36	SP-	3.83	19.4%	8.5%	2.4%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	101	25
Mauricio Lara L 2017 · 3.70 FIP	38	SP	3.70	12.0%	6.3%	1.5%	.301	4.96	12.3%	5.5%	111	+1.26	3.62	444	25
Logan Duran R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	37	SP-	3.66	15.5%	8.9%	1.4%	.427	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	187	23

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	101	21.1%	9.0%	1.49	4.85
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Kyle Wright ('23)	1.2	83	22.4%	8.9%	1.12	3.97
Kutter Crawford ('24)	2.0	130	23.9%	7.2%	1.45	4.47
Josiah Gray ('23)	1.9	126	22.6%	10.8%	1.88	4.64

Lance Lynn

Career Stats + Projections

Career Path Comps

Career Comps