Lance Lynn
PosP
B/TS/R
Born1987-05-12
Age (2026)39
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 28 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 31 | 31 | 175 | 751 | 167 | 63 | 13 | 100% | 5.7 | 22.2% | 8.4% | 13.8% | 1.7% | 3.03 | 3.24 | +4.4 |
| 2015 | 28 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 31 | 31 | 175 | 751 | 167 | 63 | 13 | 100% | 5.7 | 22.2% | 8.4% | 13.8% | 1.7% | 3.03 | 3.24 | +4.4 |
| 2016 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 3 | 3 | 7 | 28 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 2.2 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% | 1.35 | 0.99 | — |
| 2016 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 3 | 3 | 7 | 28 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 2.2 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% | 1.35 | 1.00 | — |
| 2017 | 30 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 33 | 33 | 186 | 776 | 153 | 73 | 27 | 100% | 5.6 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 3.5% | 3.43 | 4.55 | +1.9 |
| 2017 | 30 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 33 | 33 | 186 | 776 | 153 | 73 | 27 | 100% | 5.6 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 3.5% | 3.43 | 4.52 | +1.9 |
| 2018 | 31 | MLB | New York Yankees | 31 | 29 | 157 | 700 | 161 | 73 | 14 | 94% | 5.1 | 23.0% | 10.4% | 12.6% | 1.9% | 4.77 | 3.50 | +3.5 |
| 2018 | 31 | MLB | New York Yankees | 31 | 29 | 157 | 700 | 161 | 73 | 14 | 94% | 5.1 | 23.0% | 10.4% | 12.6% | 2.0% | 4.77 | 3.60 | +3.3 |
| 2019 | 32 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 33 | 33 | 208 | 875 | 246 | 59 | 21 | 100% | 6.3 | 28.1% | 6.7% | 21.4% | 2.3% | 3.67 | 2.87 | +6.2 |
| 2019 | 32 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 33 | 33 | 208 | 875 | 246 | 59 | 21 | 100% | 6.3 | 28.1% | 6.7% | 21.4% | 2.4% | 3.67 | 2.90 | +6.1 |
| 2020 | 33 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 13 | 13 | 84 | 344 | 89 | 25 | 13 | 100% | 6.5 | 25.9% | 7.3% | 18.6% | 3.7% | 3.32 | 3.86 | +1.2 |
| 2020 | 33 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 13 | 13 | 84 | 344 | 89 | 25 | 13 | 100% | 6.5 | 25.9% | 7.3% | 18.6% | 3.8% | 3.32 | 3.89 | +1.2 |
| 2021 | 34 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 28 | 28 | 157 | 641 | 176 | 43 | 18 | 100% | 5.6 | 27.5% | 6.7% | 20.7% | 2.7% | 2.69 | 3.12 | +4.2 |
| 2021 | 34 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 28 | 28 | 157 | 641 | 176 | 43 | 18 | 100% | 5.6 | 27.5% | 6.7% | 20.7% | 2.8% | 2.69 | 3.17 | +4.1 |
| 2022 | 35 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 132 | 558 | 132 | 21 | 21 | 100% | 5.5 | 24.2% | 3.7% | 20.5% | 3.6% | 4.37 | 3.49 | +2.9 |
| 2022 | 35 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 132 | 558 | 132 | 21 | 21 | 100% | 5.5 | 23.7% | 3.8% | 19.9% | 3.8% | 4.37 | 3.65 | +2.7 |
| 2023 | 36 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 32 | 32 | 184 | 808 | 191 | 66 | 44 | 100% | 5.7 | 23.6% | 8.2% | 15.5% | 5.8% | 5.73 | 5.30 | +0.2 |
| 2023 | 36 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 32 | 32 | 184 | 808 | 191 | 66 | 44 | 100% | 5.7 | 23.6% | 8.2% | 15.5% | 5.4% | 5.73 | 5.21 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 37 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 121 | 531 | 117 | 46 | 16 | 100% | 5.0 | 21.3% | 8.6% | 12.7% | 3.1% | 4.09 | 4.12 | +1.8 |
| 2024 | 37 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 121 | 531 | 117 | 46 | 16 | 100% | 5.0 | 22.0% | 8.7% | 13.4% | 3.0% | 4.09 | 4.03 | +1.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 39 | MLB | STL | 18 | 18 | 108 | 458 | 99 | 40 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.6% | 8.6% | 13.0% | 3.7% | 4.74 | 4.76 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 40 | MLB | STL | 16 | 16 | 93 | 394 | 81 | 37 | 16 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.5% | 9.3% | 11.1% | 4.1% | 5.01 | 5.19 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 41 | MLB | STL | 13 | 13 | 80 | 339 | 65 | 34 | 15 | 100% | 6.2 | 19.3% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 4.6% | 5.38 | 5.62 | -0.6 |
| 2029 | 42 | MLB | STL | 12 | 12 | 69 | 291 | 59 | 29 | 15 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.2% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 5.0% | 5.62 | 5.79 | -0.8 |
| 2027 | 40 | MLB | STL | 16 | 16 | 93 | 393 | 80 | 37 | 16 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.5% | 9.3% | 11.1% | 4.1% | 5.00 | 5.18 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 41 | MLB | STL | 13 | 13 | 80 | 338 | 65 | 34 | 15 | 100% | 6.2 | 19.3% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 4.5% | 5.37 | 5.61 | -0.6 |
| 2029 | 42 | MLB | STL | 12 | 12 | 69 | 291 | 59 | 29 | 15 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.2% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 5.0% | 5.61 | 5.78 | -0.8 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 285 | 283 | 1633 | 6942 | 1621 | 565 | 231 | 99% | 5.7 | 23.3% | 8.1% | 15.2% | 3.3% | 4.08 | 3.99 | +27.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 35 | 200 | 850 | 199 | 69 | 28 | 99% | 5.7 | 23.3% | 8.1% | 15.2% | 3.3% | 4.08 | 3.99 | +3.3 | ||
| Career | — | 252 | 250 | 1411 | 6012 | 1438 | 468 | 187 | 99% | 5.6 | 23.9% | 7.8% | 16.1% | 3.1% | 3.91 | 3.77 | +26.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 36 | 35 | 200 | 852 | 204 | 66 | 27 | 99% | 5.6 | 23.9% | 7.8% | 16.1% | 3.1% | 3.91 | 3.77 | +3.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Lance Lynn (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.76 | 21.6% | 8.6% | 3.7% | — | 5.50 | 20.0% | 10.3% | 242 | +0.74 | — | — | — |
| Yasutomo Kubo R 2025 · 3.67 FIP | 38 | SP | 3.67 | 20.4% | 4.7% | 3.1% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 152 | 56 |
| John Lackey R 2025 · 4.88 FIP | 38 | SP | 4.88 | 20.4% | 6.8% | 4.8% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 577 | 55 |
| Aaron Harang R 2024 · 4.54 FIP | 37 | SP | 4.54 | 14.4% | 6.4% | 3.4% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.54 | 172 | 51 |
| Francisco Campos R 2029 · 4.67 FIP | 42 | SP | 4.67 | 11.5% | 7.9% | 2.8% | .303 | 3.91 | 12.2% | 7.0% | 197 | -0.76 | 3.85 | 332 | 50 |
| Tim Hudson R 2027 · 4.42 FIP | 40 | SP | 4.42 | 12.2% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 124 | 50 |
| Walter Silva R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 39 | SP | 4.32 | 10.3% | 5.5% | 2.5% | .294 | 4.23 | 10.0% | 1.8% | 235 | -0.09 | 3.68 | 428 | 48 |
| Kyle Lohse R 2024 · 5.53 FIP | 37 | SP | 5.53 | 14.8% | 6.0% | 5.3% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.98 | 211 | 48 |
| Sergio Mitre R 2025 · 4.48 FIP | 38 | SP | 4.48 | 11.8% | 6.5% | 2.8% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.48 | 156 | 47 |
| Jeremy Guthrie R 2024 · 5.00 FIP | 37 | SP | 5.00 | 11.6% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.00 | 235 | 46 |
| Pablo Ortega R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 39 | SP | 3.92 | 8.9% | 4.8% | 1.8% | .262 | 4.72 | 13.3% | 7.1% | 148 | +0.80 | 3.92 | 375 | 43 |
| Bartolo Colon R 2029 · 3.68 FIP | 42 | SP | 3.68 | 16.7% | 2.3% | 3.1% | .302 | 4.62 | 14.5% | 10.2% | 481 | +0.94 | 3.68 | 676 | 42 |
| Ryan Vogelsong R 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 39 | SP- | 4.67 | 16.7% | 10.4% | 3.0% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.46 | 217 | 35 |
| R.A. Dickey R 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 40 | SP | 4.31 | 14.3% | 6.8% | 2.8% | .253 | 4.63 | 17.0% | 8.7% | 360 | +0.32 | 4.31 | 574 | 34 |
| Jonathan Sánchez L 2023 · 4.65 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.65 | 18.1% | 8.3% | 3.7% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.65 | 109 | 31 |
| CC Sabathia L 2026 · 5.17 FIP | 39 | SP | 5.17 | 22.9% | 8.3% | 5.4% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.75 | 756 | 26 |
| Barry Zito L 2024 · 4.80 FIP | 37 | SP | 4.80 | 13.6% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.80 | 138 | 26 |
| Wandy Rodriguez L 2023 · 3.84 FIP | 36 | SP- | 3.84 | 19.4% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 101 | 25 |
| Mauricio Lara L 2025 · 3.73 FIP | 38 | SP | 3.73 | 12.0% | 6.3% | 1.5% | .301 | 4.73 | 12.3% | 5.5% | 111 | +1.00 | 3.57 | 444 | 25 |
| Logan Duran R 2024 · 3.58 FIP | 37 | SP- | 3.58 | 15.5% | 8.9% | 1.2% | .427 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.36 | 187 | 23 |
| Juan Antonio Pena L 2024 · 4.15 FIP | 37 | SP- | 4.15 | 13.6% | 9.9% | 1.7% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 149 | 21 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 88 | 20.5% | 9.4% | 1.65 | 5.13 |
| Chris Young ('17) | 3 | 81 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 1.90 | 4.76 |
| Edwin Jackson ('19) | 5 | 75 | 17.0% | 9.7% | 1.75 | 5.37 |
| Jharel Cotton ('22) | 4 | 58 | 19.8% | 9.2% | 1.59 | 4.50 |
| Derek Holland ('21) | 7 | 92 | 19.7% | 9.7% | 1.59 | 5.12 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Andrew Suárez ('23) | 3 | 74 | 18.2% | 7.8% | 1.51 | 5.02 |