Lance Lynn

PosP

B/TS/R

Born1987-05-12

Age (2027)40

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

MLBSP

Pitching

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	35	MIX2 levels	24	24	132	4.37	3.65	23.7%	3.8%	2.8	K 24.2% · BB 3.7% · FIP 3.53
2023	36	MLBLAD	32	32	184	5.73	5.21	23.6%	8.2%	0.4
2024	37	MIX2 levels	24	24	121	4.09	4.03	22.0%	8.7%	2.0	K 21.3% · BB 8.6% · FIP 4.24
2025	38	No MLB games played
2026	39	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	40	MLBSTL	16	16	93	4.31	4.45	22.1%	9.0%	1.0
2028PROJ	41	MLBSTL	10	10	63	4.52	4.75	20.9%	9.7%	0.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 5.2 · Next 2 projected WAR 1.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Hitting

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2014	27	MLBSTL	69	.067/.138/.083	0	0	-40	-1.0
2015	28	MLBSTL	55	.160/.160/.200	0	0	-17	-0.7
2017	30	MLBSTL	61	.074/.107/.111	0	0	-50	-1.0
2018	31	No MLB games played
2019	32	No MLB games played
2020	33	No MLB games played
2021	34	No MLB games played
2022	35	No MLB games played
2023	36	No MLB games played
2024	37	No MLB games played
2025	38	No MLB games played
2026	39	No MLB games played

Last 3 seasons WAR -2.7

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsYasutomo Kubo (age 38) · Francisco Campos (age 42) · Pablo Ortega (age 40)

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2011	24	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	18	2	35	136	40	10	3	11%	1.9	29.4%	7.4%	22.1%	2.4%	3.12	2.85	+0.7
2011	24	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	18	2	35	136	40	10	3	11%	1.9	29.4%	7.4%	22.1%	2.2%	3.12	2.78	+0.7
2012	25	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	35	29	176	744	180	61	16	83%	5.0	24.2%	8.2%	16.0%	2.3%	3.78	3.36	+4.4
2012	25	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	35	29	176	744	180	61	16	83%	5.0	24.2%	8.2%	16.0%	2.2%	3.78	3.28	+4.6
2013	26	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	33	33	202	856	198	76	14	100%	6.1	23.1%	8.9%	14.3%	1.8%	3.97	3.24	+5.4
2013	26	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	33	33	202	856	198	76	14	100%	6.1	23.1%	8.9%	14.3%	1.6%	3.97	3.17	+5.6
2014	27	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	33	33	204	866	181	71	13	100%	6.2	20.9%	8.2%	12.7%	1.6%	2.74	3.26	+5.4
2014	27	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	33	33	204	866	181	71	13	100%	6.2	20.9%	8.2%	12.7%	1.5%	2.74	3.20	+5.6
2015	28	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	31	31	175	751	167	63	13	100%	5.7	22.2%	8.4%	13.8%	1.9%	3.03	3.31	+4.5
2015	28	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	31	31	175	751	167	63	13	100%	5.7	22.2%	8.4%	13.8%	1.7%	3.03	3.24	+4.7
2016	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	3	7	28	7	0	0	100%	2.2	25.0%	0.0%	25.0%	0.0%	1.35	0.99	—
2016	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	3	3	7	28	7	0	0	100%	2.2	25.0%	0.0%	25.0%	0.0%	1.35	1.00	—
2017	30	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	33	33	186	776	153	73	27	100%	5.6	19.7%	9.4%	10.3%	3.7%	3.43	4.68	+1.5
2017	30	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	33	33	186	776	153	73	27	100%	5.6	19.7%	9.4%	10.3%	3.5%	3.43	4.52	+1.9
2018	31	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	31	29	157	700	161	73	14	94%	5.1	23.0%	10.4%	12.6%	1.9%	4.77	3.51	+3.6
2018	31	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	31	29	157	700	161	73	14	94%	5.1	23.0%	10.4%	12.6%	2.0%	4.77	3.60	+3.4
2019	32	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	33	33	208	875	246	59	21	100%	6.3	28.1%	6.7%	21.4%	2.3%	3.67	2.85	+6.8
2019	32	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	33	33	208	875	246	59	21	100%	6.3	28.1%	6.7%	21.4%	2.4%	3.67	2.90	+6.6
2020	33	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	13	13	84	344	89	25	13	100%	6.5	25.9%	7.3%	18.6%	3.5%	3.32	3.77	+1.7
2020	33	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	13	13	84	344	89	25	13	100%	6.5	25.9%	7.3%	18.6%	3.8%	3.32	3.89	+1.5
2021	34	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	28	28	157	641	176	43	18	100%	5.6	27.5%	6.7%	20.7%	2.8%	2.69	3.15	+4.4
2021	34	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	28	28	157	641	176	43	18	100%	5.6	27.5%	6.7%	20.7%	2.8%	2.69	3.17	+4.4
2022	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	132	558	132	21	21	100%	5.5	24.2%	3.7%	20.5%	3.6%	4.37	3.53	+3.0
2022	35	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	132	558	132	21	21	100%	5.5	23.7%	3.8%	19.9%	3.8%	4.37	3.65	+2.8
2023	36	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	32	32	184	808	191	66	44	100%	5.7	23.6%	8.2%	15.5%	5.2%	5.73	5.01	+0.8
2023	36	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	32	32	184	808	191	66	44	100%	5.7	23.6%	8.2%	15.5%	5.4%	5.73	5.21	+0.4
2024	37	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	121	531	117	46	16	100%	5.0	21.3%	8.6%	12.7%	3.4%	4.09	4.24	+1.7
2024	37	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	121	531	117	46	16	100%	5.0	21.3%	8.6%	12.7%	3.4%	4.09	4.24	+1.7
2024	37	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	121	531	117	46	16	100%	5.0	22.0%	8.7%	13.4%	3.0%	4.09	4.03	+2.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			364	340	2006	8520	2015	683	231	93%	5.5	23.7%	8.0%	15.6%	2.7%	3.74	3.61	+43.6
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	40	MLB	STL	16	16	93	393	87	35	12	100%	5.8	22.1%	9.0%	13.1%	3.1%	4.31	4.45	+1.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	41	MLB MLE	STL	10	10	63	264	55	26	9	100%	6.3	20.9%	9.7%	11.2%	3.5%	4.66	4.89	+0.4
2028	41	MLB CTX	STL	10	10	63	266	56	26	9	100%	6.3	20.9%	9.7%	11.2%	3.3%	4.52	4.75	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		374	350	2069	8784	2070	709	240	94%	5.5	23.6%	8.1%	15.5%	2.7%	3.76	3.63	+44.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	34	200	849	200	69	23	94%	5.5	23.6%	8.1%	15.5%	2.7%	3.76	3.63	+4.3
Career	—	MLE		371	347	2027	8614	2037	686	236	94%	5.5	23.7%	8.0%	15.7%	2.7%	3.77	3.62	+43.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		37	34	200	850	201	68	23	94%	5.5	23.7%	8.0%	15.7%	2.7%	3.77	3.62	+4.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 4 IPFIP 0.99 → 1.34 (+0.35)K% 40.0% → 34.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	40.00%	—	×0.860	34.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.00%	—	×0.900	9.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.020	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 104).

Result: FIP 0.99 → 1.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAACharlotte Knights · 10 IPFIP 4.57 → 4.23 (−0.34)K% 17.4% → 15.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.39%	—	×0.880	15.30%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.35%	—	×1.050	4.57%
HR / BF /BF	4.35%	÷1.421	×1.100	3.37%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 184).

Result: FIP 4.57 → 4.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	10.8	144	23.5%	8.3%	1.07	3.79
Rudy May ('65-'83, 28 WAR*)	13.1	175	23.4%*	8.6%*	1.00*	4.17*
Jose Rijo ('84-'02, 33 WAR*)	9.4	145	25.9%*	8.4%*	0.93*	3.56*
Don Gullett ('70-'78, 21 WAR*)	7.0	154	22.8%*	8.5%*	1.16*	3.77*
Charlie Morton ('25)	11.3	133	22.5%	8.8%	0.90	4.13
Aníbal Sánchez ('22)	10.1	126	20.6%	8.0%	1.06	4.06
Danny Duffy ('21)	5.9	107	21.1%	8.7%	1.11	3.95

Lance Lynn

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Path Comps

Career Comps

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Lance Lynn (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.1%	—	4.89	20.9%	11.2%	63	+0.44	—	—	—
Yasutomo Kubo R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	38	SP	3.98	20.4%	4.7%	3.6%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	152	64
Francisco Campos R 2015 · 4.77 FIP	42	SP	4.77	11.5%	7.9%	3.0%	.303	4.08	12.2%	7.0%	197	-0.69	4.06	332	60
Pablo Ortega R 2017 · 4.42 FIP	40	SP	4.42	13.4%	6.0%	3.1%	.298	5.20	12.4%	4.2%	14	+0.78	4.01	375	56
Walter Silva R 2017 · 3.67 FIP	40	SP	3.67	10.4%	7.6%	0.9%	.292	5.03	9.7%	0.9%	118	+1.36	3.67	453	50
Mauricio Lara L 2019 · 4.96 FIP	40	SP	4.96	12.3%	6.8%	3.7%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	444	31
Jason Lane L 2015 · 5.56 FIP	38	SP	5.56	8.4%	6.2%	4.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	5.56	164	23
Juan Antonio Pena L 2019 · 4.56 FIP	41	SW	4.56	13.7%	14.1%	1.5%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	149	0