Danny Duffy — OGILVIE

Danny Duffy P Round Rock Express

Age 37 LHP 6'3" / 205 lbs AAA peak 0.4 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 100108vR 116

ERA4.63

FIP4.64

K%21.9%

BB%11.2%

K-BB%10.8%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 4 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5045

CTRL5550

CMD5550

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3893.7

Whiff%

p7429.1%

p7025.8%

xwOBA vs

p490.313

FB+6.3

SL+1.5

CH+0.8

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	27	145	620	112	54	16	82%	4.4	17.3%	9.0%	8.3%	2.8%	3.98	4.29	+1.0
2015	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	27	145	620	112	54	16	82%	4.4	18.1%	8.7%	9.4%	2.6%	3.98	4.11	+1.4
2016	27	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	42	26	180	731	188	42	27	62%	4.3	25.7%	5.7%	20.0%	4.0%	3.51	3.85	+2.3
2016	27	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	42	26	180	731	188	42	27	62%	4.3	25.7%	5.7%	20.0%	3.7%	3.51	3.66	+2.7
2017	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	154	638	138	42	14	100%	5.9	21.3%	6.7%	14.6%	2.3%	3.81	3.42	+2.8
2017	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	154	638	138	42	14	100%	5.9	21.6%	6.6%	15.0%	2.2%	3.81	3.31	+3.0
2018	29	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	28	28	155	692	141	69	23	100%	5.5	20.4%	10.0%	10.4%	3.6%	4.88	4.61	+0.5
2018	29	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	28	28	155	692	141	69	23	100%	5.5	20.4%	10.0%	10.4%	3.3%	4.88	4.55	+0.6
2019	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	141	593	126	46	22	100%	5.6	20.7%	8.3%	12.4%	4.1%	4.09	4.65	+0.4
2019	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	141	593	126	46	22	100%	5.6	21.2%	7.8%	13.5%	3.7%	4.09	4.32	+1.0
2020	31	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	12	11	56	242	57	22	10	92%	4.7	23.6%	9.1%	14.5%	4.5%	4.95	4.71	+0.1
2020	31	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	12	11	56	242	57	22	10	92%	4.7	23.6%	9.1%	14.5%	4.1%	4.95	4.56	+0.2
2021	32	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	13	12	61	252	65	21	6	92%	4.7	25.8%	8.3%	17.5%	2.6%	2.51	3.39	+1.1
2021	32	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	13	12	61	252	65	21	6	92%	4.7	25.8%	8.3%	17.5%	2.4%	2.51	3.28	+1.2
2022	33	MIX MLE	3 levels	7	3	7	31	11	4	0	43%	1.0	35.5%	12.9%	22.6%	0.0%	5.40	1.74	—
2022	33	MIX RAW	3 levels	7	3	7	31	11	4	0	43%	1.0	35.5%	12.9%	22.6%	0.0%	5.40	1.60	—
2023	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	0	36	165	42	29	0	0%	1.3	22.9%	16.7%	6.2%	0.0%	3.28	3.29	—
2023	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	0	36	165	42	29	0	0%	1.3	22.9%	16.7%	6.2%	0.0%	3.28	3.29	—
2023	34	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	0	36	165	42	29	0	0%	1.3	25.5%	17.6%	7.9%	0.0%	3.28	3.18	—
2024	35	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	10	2	18	82	17	17	2	20%	1.8	17.2%	18.7%	-1.5%	2.9%	5.50	5.60	—
2024	35	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	10	2	18	82	17	17	2	20%	1.8	17.2%	18.7%	-1.5%	2.9%	5.50	5.60	—
2024	35	AAA RAW	Round Rock Express	10	2	18	82	17	17	2	20%	1.8	20.7%	20.7%	0.0%	2.4%	5.50	5.49	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			172	148	866	3669	798	294	115	86%	5.0	21.7%	8.0%	13.7%	3.1%	4.04	4.00	+9.3
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	37	MLB	TEX	1	1	4	17	4	2	0	100%	4.0	21.9%	11.2%	10.8%	2.9%	4.63	4.64	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	38	MLB MLE	TEX	8	8	47	200	42	24	7	100%	5.9	20.8%	11.8%	8.9%	3.4%	4.90	5.08	-0.1
2028	39	MLB MLE	TEX	7	7	41	172	34	22	7	100%	5.8	19.6%	12.6%	7.1%	3.8%	5.27	5.51	-0.3
2027	38	MLB CTX	TEX	8	8	47	198	41	24	7	100%	5.9	20.8%	11.8%	8.9%	3.4%	4.90	5.08	-0.1
2028	39	MLB CTX	TEX	7	7	41	173	34	22	7	100%	5.9	19.6%	12.6%	7.1%	3.8%	5.27	5.51	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		187	163	954	4041	873	339	128	87%	5.1	21.6%	8.4%	13.2%	3.2%	4.14	4.08	+9.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		39	34	200	847	183	71	27	87%	5.1	21.6%	8.4%	13.2%	3.2%	4.14	4.08	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		224	160	952	4046	880	349	130	71%	4.2	21.8%	8.6%	13.1%	3.2%	4.00	4.12	+8.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	34	200	850	185	73	27	71%	4.2	21.8%	8.6%	13.1%	3.2%	4.00	4.12	+1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Danny Duffy (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.64	21.9%	11.2%	2.9%	—	5.28	20.3%	8.1%	88	+0.64	—	—	—
Wandy Rodriguez L 2015 · 3.83 FIP	36	SP-	3.83	19.4%	8.5%	2.4%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	101	74
Jonathan Sánchez L 2019 · 4.73 FIP	36	SP	4.73	18.1%	8.3%	3.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.73	109	68
Juan Antonio Pena L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	37	SP-	4.20	13.6%	9.9%	1.8%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	149	67
Scott Kazmir L 2021 · 4.58 FIP	37	SP	4.58	19.2%	8.8%	3.6%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.84	395	65
Francisley Bueno L 2017 · 4.44 FIP	36	SP	4.44	11.7%	8.4%	2.3%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	138	61
Jorge Castillo L 2019 · 4.91 FIP	37	SP	4.91	19.6%	8.1%	4.5%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.50	408	60
Tsuyoshi Wada L 2015 · 3.66 FIP	34	SP	3.66	16.8%	7.1%	2.0%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	119	60
Mauricio Lara L 2016 · 3.68 FIP	37	SP-	3.68	12.1%	7.6%	1.1%	.294	4.34	12.2%	5.6%	219	+0.66	3.62	444	58
Chris Narveson L 2017 · 4.59 FIP	35	SP	4.59	12.2%	10.4%	2.2%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.59	249	57
Eric Stults L 2015 · 4.27 FIP	35	SP	4.27	14.5%	5.9%	3.0%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	4.27	138	53
Barry Zito L 2015 · 4.52 FIP	37	SP	4.52	13.6%	10.7%	2.2%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	4.52	138	52
Arturo Lopez L 2019 · 5.46 FIP	36	SP	5.46	12.2%	6.8%	4.6%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	4.34	445	51
C.J. Wilson L 2015 · 3.69 FIP	34	SP	3.69	19.9%	8.0%	2.3%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	132	51
Oscar Rivera L 2017 · 5.80 FIP	36	SP	5.80	9.8%	7.8%	4.6%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	3.68	237	48
Horacio Ramirez L 2017 · 4.00 FIP	37	SP	4.00	8.6%	4.5%	1.9%	.306	4.65	5.7%	-0.3%	35	+0.65	3.39	199	44
CC Sabathia L 2017 · 4.20 FIP	37	SP	4.20	19.3%	7.9%	3.2%	.273	4.35	21.8%	13.9%	260	+0.15	3.76	756	36
J.A. Happ L 2020 · 4.36 FIP	37	SP	4.36	21.4%	7.7%	3.8%	.221	5.11	18.2%	11.0%	152	+0.75	3.37	1,053	36
Ryan Vogelsong R 2015 · 4.45 FIP	38	SP-	4.45	18.1%	9.4%	3.1%	.295	4.79	16.7%	6.3%	82	+0.34	4.45	217	35
Logan Ondrusek R 2021 · 4.34 FIP	36	SP	4.34	19.2%	7.3%	3.5%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	4.34	138	34
Frankie De La Cruz R 2019 · 4.38 FIP	35	SP-	4.38	16.2%	8.0%	3.0%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.77	240	34

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	48	20.9%	11.8%	1.29	4.90
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19