Danny Duffy
P
Round Rock Express
Age 37
LHP
6'3" / 205 lbs
AAA
peak 0.4 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 55 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 101110vR 119
ERA4.69
FIP4.70
K%22.1%
BB%11.7%
K-BB%10.4%
ROS IP55
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 55 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p3893.7
Whiff%
p7429.1%
K%
p7025.8%
xwOBA vs
p490.313
FB+6.3
SL+1.5
CH+0.8
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 27 | 145 | 620 | 112 | 54 | 16 | 82% | 4.4 | 17.3% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 2.7% | 3.98 | 4.27 | +1.9 |
| 2015 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 27 | 145 | 620 | 112 | 54 | 16 | 82% | 4.4 | 18.1% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 2.6% | 3.98 | 4.11 | +2.2 |
| 2016 | 27 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 42 | 26 | 180 | 731 | 188 | 42 | 27 | 62% | 4.3 | 25.7% | 5.7% | 20.0% | 4.0% | 3.51 | 3.82 | +3.3 |
| 2016 | 27 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 42 | 26 | 180 | 731 | 188 | 42 | 27 | 62% | 4.3 | 25.7% | 5.7% | 20.0% | 3.7% | 3.51 | 3.66 | +3.7 |
| 2017 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 26 | 154 | 638 | 138 | 42 | 14 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.3% | 6.7% | 14.6% | 2.3% | 3.81 | 3.40 | +3.6 |
| 2017 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 26 | 154 | 638 | 138 | 42 | 14 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.6% | 6.6% | 15.0% | 2.2% | 3.81 | 3.31 | +3.8 |
| 2018 | 29 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 28 | 28 | 155 | 692 | 141 | 69 | 23 | 100% | 5.5 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 3.6% | 4.88 | 4.59 | +1.5 |
| 2018 | 29 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 28 | 28 | 155 | 692 | 141 | 69 | 23 | 100% | 5.5 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 3.3% | 4.88 | 4.55 | +1.5 |
| 2019 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 141 | 593 | 126 | 46 | 22 | 100% | 5.6 | 20.7% | 8.3% | 12.4% | 4.0% | 4.09 | 4.62 | +1.3 |
| 2019 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 141 | 593 | 126 | 46 | 22 | 100% | 5.6 | 21.2% | 7.8% | 13.5% | 3.7% | 4.09 | 4.32 | +1.8 |
| 2020 | 31 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 12 | 11 | 56 | 242 | 57 | 22 | 10 | 92% | 4.7 | 23.6% | 9.1% | 14.5% | 4.4% | 4.95 | 4.69 | -0.1 |
| 2020 | 31 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 12 | 11 | 56 | 242 | 57 | 22 | 10 | 92% | 4.7 | 23.6% | 9.1% | 14.5% | 4.1% | 4.95 | 4.56 | -0.0 |
| 2021 | 32 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 13 | 12 | 61 | 252 | 65 | 21 | 6 | 92% | 4.7 | 25.8% | 8.3% | 17.5% | 2.5% | 2.51 | 3.38 | +0.9 |
| 2021 | 32 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 13 | 12 | 61 | 252 | 65 | 21 | 6 | 92% | 4.7 | 25.8% | 8.3% | 17.5% | 2.4% | 2.51 | 3.28 | +0.9 |
| 2022 | 33 | MIX | 3 levels | 7 | 3 | 7 | 31 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 43% | 1.0 | 35.5% | 12.9% | 22.6% | 0.0% | 5.40 | 1.74 | — |
| 2022 | 33 | MIX | 3 levels | 7 | 3 | 7 | 31 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 43% | 1.0 | 35.5% | 12.9% | 22.6% | 0.0% | 5.40 | 1.60 | — |
| 2023 | 34 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 0 | 36 | 165 | 42 | 29 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 22.9% | 16.7% | 6.2% | 0.0% | 3.28 | 3.29 | — |
| 2023 | 34 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 0 | 36 | 165 | 42 | 29 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 25.5% | 17.6% | 7.9% | 0.0% | 3.28 | 3.18 | — |
| 2024 | 35 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 10 | 2 | 18 | 82 | 17 | 17 | 2 | 20% | 1.8 | 18.2% | 21.8% | -3.5% | 3.1% | 5.50 | 6.04 | — |
| 2024 | 35 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 10 | 2 | 18 | 82 | 17 | 17 | 2 | 20% | 1.8 | 20.7% | 20.7% | 0.0% | 2.4% | 5.50 | 5.49 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 37 | MLB | TEX | 9 | 9 | 55 | 232 | 51 | 27 | 7 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.1% | 11.7% | 10.4% | 2.9% | 4.69 | 4.70 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 38 | MLB | TEX | 8 | 8 | 47 | 200 | 42 | 25 | 7 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.9% | 12.3% | 8.6% | 3.4% | 4.96 | 5.14 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 39 | MLB | TEX | 7 | 7 | 41 | 172 | 34 | 22 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.8% | 13.1% | 6.7% | 3.8% | 5.33 | 5.57 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 38 | MLB | TEX | 8 | 8 | 47 | 198 | 42 | 25 | 7 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.9% | 12.3% | 8.6% | 3.4% | 4.96 | 5.14 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 39 | MLB | TEX | 7 | 7 | 41 | 173 | 34 | 23 | 7 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.8% | 13.1% | 6.7% | 3.8% | 5.33 | 5.57 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 187 | 163 | 954 | 4041 | 874 | 341 | 128 | 87% | 5.1 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 13.2% | 3.2% | 4.14 | 4.09 | +14.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 39 | 34 | 200 | 847 | 183 | 72 | 27 | 87% | 5.1 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 13.2% | 3.2% | 4.14 | 4.09 | +3.1 | ||
| Career | — | 224 | 160 | 952 | 4046 | 881 | 351 | 129 | 71% | 4.2 | 21.8% | 8.7% | 13.1% | 3.2% | 4.00 | 4.11 | +14.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 47 | 34 | 200 | 850 | 185 | 74 | 27 | 71% | 4.2 | 21.8% | 8.7% | 13.1% | 3.2% | 4.00 | 4.11 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Danny Duffy (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.70 | 22.1% | 11.7% | 2.9% | — | 5.34 | 20.4% | 7.7% | 88 | +0.64 | — | — | — |
| Wandy Rodriguez L 2025 · 3.84 FIP | 36 | SP- | 3.84 | 19.4% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 101 | 73 |
| Jonathan Sánchez L 2025 · 4.65 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.65 | 18.1% | 8.3% | 3.7% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.65 | 109 | 67 |
| Juan Antonio Pena L 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 37 | SP- | 4.15 | 13.6% | 9.9% | 1.7% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 149 | 66 |
| Scott Kazmir L 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 37 | SP | 4.59 | 19.2% | 8.8% | 3.6% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.72 | 395 | 65 |
| J.A. Happ L 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 37 | SP | 4.34 | 21.4% | 7.7% | 3.8% | .221 | 4.94 | 18.2% | 11.0% | 152 | +0.60 | 3.28 | 1,053 | 60 |
| Francisley Bueno L 2025 · 4.60 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.60 | 11.7% | 8.4% | 2.6% | .351 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 138 | 60 |
| Tsuyoshi Wada L 2023 · 3.68 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.68 | 16.8% | 7.1% | 2.0% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 119 | 60 |
| Jorge Castillo L 2026 · 5.23 FIP | 37 | SP | 5.23 | 19.6% | 8.1% | 5.0% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.40 | 408 | 58 |
| Mauricio Lara L 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 37 | SP- | 3.67 | 12.1% | 7.6% | 1.1% | .294 | 4.24 | 12.2% | 5.6% | 219 | +0.57 | 3.57 | 444 | 57 |
| Chris Narveson L 2024 · 4.40 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.40 | 12.2% | 10.4% | 1.8% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.40 | 249 | 57 |
| Eric Stults L 2024 · 4.25 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.25 | 14.5% | 5.9% | 2.9% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 138 | 52 |
| Barry Zito L 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 37 | SP | 4.80 | 13.6% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.80 | 138 | 52 |
| Arturo Lopez L 2025 · 5.22 FIP | 36 | SP | 5.22 | 12.2% | 6.8% | 4.2% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.24 | 445 | 51 |
| C.J. Wilson L 2023 · 3.77 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.77 | 19.9% | 8.0% | 2.4% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 132 | 51 |
| Oscar Rivera L 2025 · 5.36 FIP | 36 | SP | 5.36 | 9.8% | 7.8% | 3.8% | .252 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 237 | 49 |
| CC Sabathia L 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 37 | SP | 4.19 | 19.3% | 7.9% | 3.1% | .273 | 4.34 | 21.8% | 13.9% | 260 | +0.15 | 3.75 | 756 | 48 |
| Rich Hill L 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 37 | SP | 3.56 | 30.1% | 8.7% | 3.5% | .253 | 3.81 | 26.8% | 19.3% | 230 | +0.25 | 2.10 | 1,030 | 45 |
| Horacio Ramirez L 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 37 | SP | 4.15 | 8.6% | 4.5% | 2.2% | .306 | 4.62 | 5.7% | -0.3% | 35 | +0.47 | 3.28 | 199 | 44 |
| Ryan Vogelsong R 2027 · 4.46 FIP | 38 | SP- | 4.46 | 18.1% | 9.4% | 3.1% | .295 | 4.67 | 16.7% | 6.3% | 82 | +0.21 | 4.46 | 217 | 35 |
| Logan Ondrusek R 2025 · 4.35 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.35 | 19.2% | 7.3% | 3.5% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.35 | 138 | 34 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 48 | 21.1% | 12.3% | 1.29 | 4.96 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |