Danny Duffy

P Round Rock Express

Age 38 LHP 6'3" / 205 lbs AAA peak 0.5 · 2027

Overview

AAASP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	33	MIX3 levels	7	3	7	5.40	1.60	35.5%	12.9%	—	K 35.5% · BB 12.9% · FIP 1.74
2023	34	MIX2 levels	28	0	36	3.28	3.18	25.5%	17.6%	—	K 22.9% · BB 16.7% · FIP 3.29
2024	35	AAATEX	10	2	18	5.50	5.49	20.7%	20.7%	—	K 17.8% · BB 18.7% · FIP 5.55
2025	36	No MLB games played
2026	37	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	38	MLBTEX	1	1	7	4.45	4.47	22.6%	9.8%	0.1
2028PROJ	39	MLBTEX	6	6	36	4.72	4.90	21.4%	10.5%	0.2

Next 2 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2021

K%70

xwOBA vs49

FB Velo38

CompsJuan Antonio Pena (age 37) · Jorge Castillo (age 37) · Mauricio Lara (age 38)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 98106vR 114

ERA4.45

FIP4.47

K%22.6%

BB%9.8%

K-BB%12.8%

Proj IP50

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 50 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3893.7

Whiff%

p7429.1%

p7025.8%

xwOBA vs

p490.313

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2011	22	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	20	20	105	474	87	50	15	100%	5.3	18.4%	10.5%	7.8%	3.4%	5.64	4.76	+0.8
2011	22	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	20	20	105	474	87	50	15	100%	5.3	18.4%	10.5%	7.8%	3.2%	5.64	4.72	+0.8
2012	23	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	6	6	28	121	28	17	2	100%	4.6	23.1%	14.0%	9.1%	1.8%	3.90	3.91	+0.5
2012	23	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	6	6	28	121	28	17	2	100%	4.6	23.1%	14.0%	9.1%	1.7%	3.90	3.86	+0.5
2013	24	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	5	5	24	104	22	14	0	100%	4.9	21.2%	13.5%	7.7%	0.0%	1.85	3.02	+0.7
2013	24	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	5	5	24	104	22	14	0	100%	4.9	21.2%	13.5%	7.7%	0.0%	1.85	3.02	+0.7
2014	25	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	31	25	149	606	113	51	12	81%	4.8	18.6%	8.4%	10.2%	2.1%	2.53	3.77	+2.9
2014	25	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	31	25	149	606	113	51	12	81%	4.8	18.6%	8.4%	10.2%	2.0%	2.53	3.66	+3.1
2015	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	27	145	620	112	54	16	82%	4.4	17.3%	9.0%	8.3%	2.8%	3.98	4.29	+1.9
2015	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	27	145	620	112	54	16	82%	4.4	18.1%	8.7%	9.4%	2.6%	3.98	4.11	+2.2
2016	27	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	42	26	180	731	188	42	27	62%	4.3	25.7%	5.7%	20.0%	4.0%	3.51	3.85	+3.3
2016	27	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	42	26	180	731	188	42	27	62%	4.3	25.7%	5.7%	20.0%	3.7%	3.51	3.66	+3.8
2017	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	154	638	138	42	14	100%	5.9	21.3%	6.7%	14.6%	2.3%	3.81	3.42	+3.7
2017	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	154	638	138	42	14	100%	5.9	21.6%	6.6%	15.0%	2.2%	3.81	3.31	+4.0
2018	29	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	28	28	155	692	141	69	23	100%	5.5	20.4%	10.0%	10.4%	3.6%	4.88	4.61	+1.4
2018	29	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	28	28	155	692	141	69	23	100%	5.5	20.4%	10.0%	10.4%	3.3%	4.88	4.55	+1.5
2019	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	141	593	126	46	22	100%	5.6	20.7%	8.3%	12.4%	4.1%	4.09	4.65	+1.2
2019	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	141	593	126	46	22	100%	5.6	21.2%	7.8%	13.5%	3.7%	4.09	4.32	+1.8
2020	31	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	12	11	56	242	57	22	10	92%	4.7	23.6%	9.1%	14.5%	4.5%	4.95	4.71	+0.4
2020	31	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	12	11	56	242	57	22	10	92%	4.7	23.6%	9.1%	14.5%	4.1%	4.95	4.56	+0.6
2021	32	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	13	12	61	252	65	21	6	92%	4.7	25.8%	8.3%	17.5%	2.6%	2.51	3.39	+1.5
2021	32	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	13	12	61	252	65	21	6	92%	4.7	25.8%	8.3%	17.5%	2.4%	2.51	3.28	+1.6
2022	33	MIX MLE	3 levels	7	3	7	31	11	4	0	43%	1.0	35.5%	12.9%	22.6%	0.0%	5.40	1.74	—
2022	33	MIX RAW	3 levels	7	3	7	31	11	4	0	43%	1.0	35.5%	12.9%	22.6%	0.0%	5.40	1.60	—
2023	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	0	36	165	42	29	0	0%	1.3	22.9%	16.7%	6.2%	0.0%	3.28	3.29	—
2023	34	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	0	36	165	42	29	0	0%	1.3	25.5%	17.6%	7.9%	0.0%	3.28	3.18	—
2024	35	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	10	2	18	82	17	17	2	20%	1.8	17.8%	18.7%	-0.8%	2.9%	5.50	5.55	—
2024	35	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	10	2	18	82	17	17	2	20%	1.8	17.8%	18.7%	-0.8%	2.9%	5.50	5.55	—
2024	35	AAA RAW	Round Rock Express	10	2	18	82	17	17	2	20%	1.8	20.7%	20.7%	0.0%	2.4%	5.50	5.49	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			234	204	1172	4974	1048	426	144	87%	5.0	21.1%	8.6%	12.5%	2.9%	3.95	4.00	+19.6
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	38	MLB	TEX	1	1	7	30	7	3	1	100%	7.0	22.6%	9.8%	12.8%	3.0%	4.45	4.47	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	39	MLB MLE	TEX	6	6	36	154	33	16	5	100%	6.1	21.4%	10.5%	10.9%	3.5%	4.72	4.90	+0.2
2028	39	MLB CTX	TEX	6	6	36	152	33	16	5	100%	6.0	21.4%	10.5%	10.9%	3.5%	4.72	4.90	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		240	210	1209	5128	1081	442	149	88%	5.0	21.1%	8.6%	12.5%	2.9%	3.97	4.01	+20.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		40	35	200	848	179	73	25	88%	5.0	21.1%	8.6%	12.5%	2.9%	3.97	4.01	+3.3
Career	—	MLE		286	216	1258	5351	1131	481	161	76%	4.4	21.1%	9.0%	12.1%	3.0%	3.92	4.11	+19.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	34	200	850	180	76	26	76%	4.4	21.1%	9.0%	12.1%	3.0%	3.92	4.11	+3.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAARound Rock Express · 18 IPFIP 5.31 → 5.55 (+0.23)K% 20.7% → 17.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.73%	—	×0.860	17.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	20.73%	—	×0.900	18.66%
HR / BF /BF	2.44%	÷0.928	×1.100	2.89%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 86).

Result: FIP 5.31 → 5.55, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 31 IPFIP 2.64 → 3.29 (+0.65)K% 28.3% → 22.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.26%	—	×0.810	22.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.22%	—	×1.100	16.74%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.974	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 95).

Result: FIP 2.64 → 3.29, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAARound Rock Express · 4 IPFIP 5.91 → 5.67 (−0.24)K% 11.1% → 9.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	11.11%	—	×0.860	9.56%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	29.63%	—	×0.900	26.67%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.035	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 5.91 → 5.67, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 10 IPFIP 2.10 → 3.04 (+0.94)K% 28.9% → 23.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.95%	—	×0.810	23.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.100	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	2.63%	÷0.901	×1.200	3.51%

Result: FIP 2.10 → 3.04, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 7 IPFIP 3.10 → 3.69 (+0.59)K% 27.6% → 24.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.59%	—	×0.880	24.28%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.45%	—	×1.050	3.62%
HR / BF /BF	3.45%	÷0.956	×1.100	3.97%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 91).

Result: FIP 3.10 → 3.69, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 8 IPFIP 2.57 → 2.82 (+0.25)K% 31.2% → 27.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.25%	—	×0.880	27.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.12%	—	×1.050	3.28%
HR / BF /BF	3.12%	÷1.157	×1.100	2.97%

Result: FIP 2.57 → 2.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Danny Duffy (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.0%	—	4.90	21.4%	10.9%	36	+0.43	—	—	—
Juan Antonio Pena L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	37	SP-	4.20	13.6%	9.9%	1.8%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	149	63
Jorge Castillo L 2019 · 4.91 FIP	37	SP	4.91	19.6%	8.1%	4.5%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.50	408	61
Mauricio Lara L 2017 · 3.70 FIP	38	SP	3.70	12.0%	6.3%	1.5%	.301	4.96	12.3%	5.5%	111	+1.26	3.62	444	51
Jason Lane L 2015 · 5.56 FIP	38	SP	5.56	8.4%	6.2%	4.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	5.56	164	33
Walter Silva R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	38	SP	4.15	14.8%	7.4%	2.5%	.311	3.91	10.4%	3.7%	209	-0.24	3.67	453	29
Logan Duran R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	37	SP-	3.66	15.5%	8.9%	1.4%	.427	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	187	28
Jose Oyervides R 2019 · 5.66 FIP	37	SP	5.66	16.3%	11.2%	4.6%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	407	28
Jon Leicester R 2015 · 3.76 FIP	36	SP	3.76	12.3%	5.9%	1.7%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	113	27
Yasutomo Kubo R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	38	SP	3.98	20.4%	4.7%	3.6%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	152	24
Jonathan Castellanos R 2019 · 5.24 FIP	37	SW	5.24	11.0%	9.0%	3.5%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	394	21
Pablo Ortega R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	38	SP	4.52	8.6%	7.3%	2.2%	.291	4.24	11.5%	6.0%	236	-0.28	4.01	375	21
Ivan Maldonado R 2016 · 5.41 FIP	36	SP	5.41	6.4%	9.7%	3.0%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.60	172	19
Lorenzo Barcelo R 2016 · 3.48 FIP	38	SP	3.48	12.8%	1.1%	2.4%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.14	259	14
Hiroki Kuroda R 2013 · 3.44 FIP	38	SP	3.44	18.2%	5.0%	2.3%	.279	3.39	17.8%	13.5%	199	-0.05	2.96	1,319	0

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.3	97	21.1%	8.8%	1.13	3.99
Jhoulys Chacín ('22)	7.2	120	18.7%	9.5%	0.98	4.18
Rich Hill ('25)	7.1	101	23.9%	9.2%	1.12	4.02
Garrett Richards ('22)	4.9	98	20.4%	8.7%	0.85	3.87
Pat Zachry ('76-'85, 10 WAR*)	5.9	131	19.1%*	9.8%*	1.10*	4.18*
Jim Bouton ('62-'78, 8 WAR*)	6.2	124	17.7%*	8.2%*	1.17*	4.30*
Mike Bielecki ('84-'97, 9 WAR*)	6.2	95	18.4%*	9.1%*	1.15*	4.47*