Rich Hill
P Omaha Storm Chasers| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | G | GS | IP | ERA | FIP | K% | BB% | WAR | MLE rates | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 43 | MLBSD | 32 | 27 | 146 | 5.41 | 4.57 | 19.5% | 8.8% | 1.4 | ||
| 2024 | 44 | MIX2 levels | 5 | 1 | 6 | 3.18 | 5.04 | 31.8% | 18.2% | -0.0 | K 31.8% · BB 18.2% · FIP 5.21 | |
| 2025 | 45 | MIX3 levels | 13 | 13 | 59 | 5.19 | 5.44 | 24.4% | 12.4% | -0.0 | K 21.5% · BB 11.7% · FIP 5.59 | |
| 2026 | 46 | No MLB games played | ||||||||||
| 2027PROJ | 47 | MLBKC | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4.93 | 5.05 | 18.2% | 10.0% | 0.0 | ||
| 2028PROJ | 48 | MLBKC | 3 | 3 | 16 | 5.10 | 5.32 | 17.1% | 10.7% | -0.0 | ||
Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year) | |||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far) | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2005 | 25 | MLB MLE | Chicago Cubs | 10 | 4 | 24 | 115 | 21 | 16 | 3 | 40% | 2.4 | 18.3% | 13.9% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 9.13 | 4.75 | -0.1 |
| 2005 | 25 | MLB RAW | Chicago Cubs | 10 | 4 | 24 | 115 | 21 | 16 | 3 | 40% | 2.4 | 18.3% | 13.9% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 9.13 | 5.00 | -0.1 |
| 2006 | 26 | MLB MLE | Chicago Cubs | 17 | 16 | 99 | 417 | 90 | 38 | 16 | 94% | 5.8 | 21.6% | 9.1% | 12.5% | 3.8% | 4.17 | 4.54 | +1.0 |
| 2006 | 26 | MLB RAW | Chicago Cubs | 17 | 16 | 99 | 417 | 90 | 38 | 16 | 94% | 5.8 | 21.6% | 9.1% | 12.5% | 3.8% | 4.17 | 4.53 | +1.0 |
| 2007 | 27 | MLB MLE | Chicago Cubs | 32 | 32 | 195 | 812 | 183 | 60 | 27 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.5% | 7.4% | 15.1% | 3.3% | 3.92 | 3.96 | +3.4 |
| 2007 | 27 | MLB RAW | Chicago Cubs | 32 | 32 | 195 | 812 | 183 | 60 | 27 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.5% | 7.4% | 15.1% | 3.3% | 3.92 | 3.95 | +3.4 |
| 2008 | 28 | MLB MLE | Chicago Cubs | 5 | 5 | 20 | 89 | 15 | 18 | 2 | 100% | 3.9 | 16.9% | 20.2% | -3.4% | 2.2% | 4.12 | 5.47 | -0.0 |
| 2008 | 28 | MLB RAW | Chicago Cubs | 5 | 5 | 20 | 89 | 15 | 18 | 2 | 100% | 3.9 | 16.9% | 20.2% | -3.4% | 2.2% | 4.12 | 5.64 | -0.1 |
| 2009 | 29 | MLB MLE | Baltimore Orioles | 14 | 13 | 58 | 275 | 46 | 38 | 7 | 93% | 4.1 | 16.7% | 13.8% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 7.80 | 4.83 | +0.4 |
| 2009 | 29 | MLB RAW | Baltimore Orioles | 14 | 13 | 58 | 275 | 46 | 38 | 7 | 93% | 4.1 | 16.7% | 13.8% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 7.80 | 5.06 | +0.2 |
| 2010 | 30 | MLB MLE | Boston Red Sox | 6 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.7 | 16.7% | 5.6% | 11.1% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 2.40 | +0.1 |
| 2010 | 30 | MLB RAW | Boston Red Sox | 6 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.7 | 16.7% | 5.6% | 11.1% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 2.35 | +0.1 |
| 2011 | 31 | MLB MLE | Boston Red Sox | 9 | 0 | 8 | 30 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0.9 | 40.0% | 10.0% | 30.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.99 | +0.3 |
| 2011 | 31 | MLB RAW | Boston Red Sox | 9 | 0 | 8 | 30 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0.9 | 40.0% | 10.0% | 30.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.23 | +0.3 |
| 2012 | 32 | MLB MLE | Boston Red Sox | 25 | 0 | 20 | 83 | 21 | 10 | 0 | 0% | 0.8 | 25.3% | 12.0% | 13.3% | 0.0% | 1.83 | 2.49 | +0.5 |
| 2012 | 32 | MLB RAW | Boston Red Sox | 25 | 0 | 20 | 83 | 21 | 10 | 0 | 0% | 0.8 | 25.3% | 12.0% | 13.3% | 0.0% | 1.83 | 2.49 | +0.5 |
| 2013 | 33 | MLB MLE | Cleveland Indians | 63 | 0 | 39 | 182 | 51 | 23 | 3 | 0% | 0.6 | 28.0% | 12.6% | 15.4% | 1.7% | 6.28 | 3.24 | +0.6 |
| 2013 | 33 | MLB RAW | Cleveland Indians | 63 | 0 | 39 | 182 | 51 | 23 | 3 | 0% | 0.6 | 28.0% | 12.6% | 15.4% | 1.6% | 6.28 | 3.26 | +0.6 |
| 2014 | 34 | MLB MLE | New York Yankees | 16 | 0 | 5 | 29 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.3 | 31.0% | 17.2% | 13.8% | 0.0% | 3.38 | 2.66 | +0.1 |
| 2014 | 34 | MLB RAW | New York Yankees | 16 | 0 | 5 | 29 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.3 | 31.0% | 17.2% | 13.8% | 0.0% | 3.38 | 2.54 | +0.1 |
| 2015 | 35 | MIX MLE | 2 levels | 34 | 9 | 83 | 335 | 97 | 35 | 6 | 26% | 2.4 | 26.8% | 10.9% | 15.9% | 1.9% | 2.39 | 3.27 | +1.3 |
| 2015 | 35 | MIX RAW | 2 levels | 34 | 9 | 83 | 335 | 97 | 35 | 6 | 26% | 2.4 | 29.0% | 10.4% | 18.5% | 1.8% | 2.39 | 2.97 | +1.6 |
| 2016 | 36 | MIX MLE | 2 levels | 21 | 21 | 113 | 452 | 135 | 33 | 4 | 100% | 5.4 | 29.4% | 7.5% | 21.9% | 0.9% | 2.14 | 2.05 | +5.0 |
| 2016 | 36 | MIX RAW | 2 levels | 21 | 21 | 113 | 452 | 135 | 33 | 4 | 100% | 5.4 | 29.9% | 7.3% | 22.6% | 0.9% | 2.14 | 2.05 | +5.0 |
| 2017 | 37 | MIX MLE | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 141 | 576 | 171 | 52 | 18 | 100% | 5.2 | 30.1% | 8.7% | 21.4% | 3.1% | 3.44 | 3.38 | +3.5 |
| 2017 | 37 | MIX RAW | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 141 | 576 | 171 | 52 | 18 | 100% | 5.2 | 29.7% | 9.0% | 20.7% | 3.1% | 3.44 | 3.44 | +3.4 |
| 2018 | 38 | MIX MLE | 2 levels | 26 | 25 | 137 | 567 | 160 | 38 | 20 | 96% | 5.3 | 27.4% | 6.9% | 20.5% | 3.5% | 3.54 | 3.59 | +3.0 |
| 2018 | 38 | MIX RAW | 2 levels | 26 | 25 | 137 | 567 | 160 | 38 | 20 | 96% | 5.3 | 28.2% | 6.7% | 21.5% | 3.5% | 3.54 | 3.49 | +3.2 |
| 2019 | 39 | MIX MLE | 2 levels | 14 | 14 | 63 | 256 | 80 | 16 | 10 | 100% | 4.5 | 29.8% | 6.6% | 23.1% | 4.0% | 2.30 | 3.60 | +1.4 |
| 2019 | 39 | MIX RAW | 2 levels | 14 | 14 | 63 | 256 | 80 | 16 | 10 | 100% | 4.5 | 31.2% | 6.2% | 25.0% | 3.9% | 2.30 | 3.39 | +1.5 |
| 2020 | 40 | MLB MLE | Minnesota Twins | 8 | 8 | 39 | 156 | 31 | 17 | 3 | 100% | 4.8 | 19.9% | 10.9% | 9.0% | 1.9% | 3.03 | 3.85 | +0.7 |
| 2020 | 40 | MLB RAW | Minnesota Twins | 8 | 8 | 39 | 156 | 31 | 17 | 3 | 100% | 4.8 | 19.9% | 10.9% | 9.0% | 1.9% | 3.03 | 3.82 | +0.7 |
| 2021 | 41 | MLB MLE | New York Mets | 32 | 31 | 159 | 661 | 150 | 55 | 21 | 97% | 5.0 | 22.7% | 8.3% | 14.4% | 3.2% | 3.86 | 3.99 | +2.7 |
| 2021 | 41 | MLB RAW | New York Mets | 32 | 31 | 159 | 661 | 150 | 55 | 21 | 97% | 5.0 | 22.7% | 8.3% | 14.4% | 3.2% | 3.86 | 3.97 | +2.7 |
| 2022 | 42 | MIX MLE | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 127 | 540 | 114 | 37 | 16 | 100% | 4.7 | 20.7% | 7.0% | 13.7% | 2.9% | 4.24 | 3.85 | +2.4 |
| 2022 | 42 | MIX RAW | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 127 | 540 | 114 | 37 | 16 | 100% | 4.7 | 21.1% | 6.9% | 14.3% | 3.0% | 4.24 | 3.81 | +2.4 |
| 2023 | 43 | MLB MLE | San Diego Padres | 32 | 27 | 146 | 660 | 129 | 58 | 23 | 84% | 4.6 | 19.5% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 3.4% | 5.41 | 4.43 | +1.7 |
| 2023 | 43 | MLB RAW | San Diego Padres | 32 | 27 | 146 | 660 | 129 | 58 | 23 | 84% | 4.6 | 19.5% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 3.5% | 5.41 | 4.57 | +1.4 |
| 2024 | 44 | MIX MLE | 2 levels | 5 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 20% | 1.1 | 31.8% | 18.2% | 13.6% | 4.5% | 3.18 | 5.21 | -0.0 |
| 2024 | 44 | MIX MLE | 2 levels | 5 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 20% | 1.1 | 31.8% | 18.2% | 13.6% | 4.5% | 3.18 | 5.21 | -0.0 |
| 2024 | 44 | MIX RAW | 2 levels | 5 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 20% | 1.1 | 31.8% | 18.2% | 13.6% | 4.5% | 3.18 | 5.04 | -0.0 |
| 2025 | 45 | MIX MLE | 3 levels | 13 | 13 | 59 | 266 | 65 | 33 | 13 | 100% | 4.5 | 21.5% | 11.7% | 9.8% | 5.1% | 5.19 | 5.59 | -0.1 |
| 2025 | 45 | MIX MLE | 3 levels | 13 | 13 | 59 | 266 | 65 | 33 | 13 | 100% | 4.5 | 21.5% | 11.7% | 9.8% | 5.1% | 5.19 | 5.59 | -0.1 |
| 2025 | 45 | MIX RAW | 3 levels | 13 | 13 | 59 | 266 | 65 | 33 | 13 | 100% | 4.5 | 24.4% | 12.4% | 12.0% | 4.9% | 5.19 | 5.44 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded) | |||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | 388 | 250 | 1418 | 5997 | 1432 | 530 | 177 | 64% | 3.7 | 23.9% | 8.8% | 15.0% | 3.0% | 4.02 | 3.82 | +26.7 | ||
| ▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded) | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 47 | MLB | KC | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 2.0 | 18.2% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 3.4% | 4.93 | 5.05 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 48 | MLB MLE | KC | 3 | 3 | 16 | 67 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 100% | 5.3 | 17.1% | 10.7% | 6.4% | 3.8% | 5.26 | 5.48 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 48 | MLB CTX | KC | 3 | 3 | 16 | 68 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 100% | 5.3 | 17.1% | 10.7% | 6.4% | 3.5% | 5.10 | 5.32 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | RAW | 391 | 253 | 1434 | 6064 | 1443 | 537 | 179 | 65% | 3.7 | 23.8% | 8.9% | 14.9% | 3.0% | 4.03 | 3.84 | +26.8 | |
| / 200 IP | — | RAW | 54 | 35 | 200 | 846 | 201 | 75 | 25 | 65% | 3.7 | 23.8% | 8.9% | 14.9% | 3.0% | 4.03 | 3.84 | +3.7 | |
| Career | — | MLE | 436 | 273 | 1544 | 6541 | 1564 | 592 | 193 | 63% | 3.5 | 23.9% | 9.1% | 14.9% | 3.0% | 3.99 | 3.85 | +26.7 | |
| / 200 IP | — | MLE | 56 | 35 | 200 | 847 | 203 | 77 | 25 | 63% | 3.5 | 23.9% | 9.1% | 14.9% | 3.0% | 3.99 | 3.85 | +3.7 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 42 IPFIP 5.21 → 5.59 (+0.38)K% 25.0% → 21.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 25.00% | — | ×0.860 | 21.50% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 13.02% | — | ×0.900 | 11.72% |
| HR / BF /BF | 4.69% | ÷1.003 | ×1.100 | 5.14% |
Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 101).
Result: FIP 5.21 → 5.59, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKACL Royals · 8 IPFIP 3.10 → 5.97 (+2.87)K% 41.9% → 28.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 41.94% | — | ×0.680 | 28.52% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 0.00% | — | ×1.250 | 0.00% |
| HR / BF /BF | 6.45% | ÷0.939 | ×1.400 | 9.61% |
Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 88).
Result: FIP 3.10 → 5.97, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 A+Rancho Cucamonga Quakes · 5 IPFIP -1.12 → -0.15 (+0.97)K% 50.0% → 38.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 50.00% | — | ×0.770 | 38.50% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 0.00% | — | ×1.150 | 0.00% |
| HR / BF /BF | 0.00% | ÷1.058 | ×1.250 | 0.00% |
Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 112).
Result: FIP -1.12 → -0.15, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 A+Rancho Cucamonga Quakes · 6 IPFIP 3.45 → 4.17 (+0.72)K% 20.8% → 16.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 20.83% | — | ×0.770 | 16.04% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 16.67% | — | ×1.150 | 19.17% |
| HR / BF /BF | 0.00% | ÷1.085 | ×1.250 | 0.00% |
Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 117).
Result: FIP 3.45 → 4.17, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 54 IPFIP 3.47 → 3.90 (+0.44)K% 26.6% → 23.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 26.64% | — | ×0.880 | 23.44% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 13.10% | — | ×1.050 | 13.76% |
| HR / BF /BF | 1.75% | ÷1.012 | ×1.100 | 1.90% |
Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 102).
Result: FIP 3.47 → 3.90, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Career Comps
Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.
| Player | 162s | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 7.2 | 91 | 23.7% | 9.2% | 1.15 | 4.04 |
| Pete Richert ('62-'74, 13 WAR*) | 5.8 | 90 | 24.4%* | 8.8%* | 1.26* | 4.04* |
| Skip Lockwood ('69-'80, 11 WAR*) | 6.2 | 103 | 22.5%* | 9.1%* | 1.06* | 4.28* |
| Joe Hesketh ('84-'94, 10 WAR*) | 4.8 | 87 | 23.2%* | 8.8%* | 1.07* | 3.95* |
| Brandon Morrow ('18) | 4.3 | 78 | 24.0% | 10.1% | 0.92 | 3.96 |
| Francisco Liriano ('19) | 9.1 | 130 | 23.3% | 10.5% | 0.91 | 4.15 |
| Danny Duffy ('21) | 5.9 | 107 | 21.1% | 8.7% | 1.11 | 3.95 |