Charlie Morton

PosP
B/TR/R
Born1983-11-12
Age (2026)42

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

YearAge LvlTeam GGSIPBF KBBHR GS%IP/G K%BB%K-BB%HR% ERAFIP WAR
201531MIX3 levels26261496431184113100%5.717.9%6.3%11.6%2.1%4.343.55+3.2
201531MIX3 levels26261496431184113100%5.718.4%6.4%12.0%2.0%4.343.48+3.4
201632MLBPhiladelphia Phillies4417711981100%4.326.8%11.3%15.5%1.4%4.153.01+0.3
201632MLBPhiladelphia Phillies4417711981100%4.326.8%11.3%15.5%1.4%4.153.04+0.3
201733MIX3 levels28281576561715315100%5.626.4%7.9%18.5%2.1%3.443.05+4.3
201733MIX3 levels28281576561715315100%5.626.1%8.1%18.0%2.3%3.443.18+4.1
201834MLBHouston Astros30301676952016418100%5.628.9%9.2%19.7%2.4%3.133.17+4.4
201834MLBHouston Astros30301676952016418100%5.628.9%9.2%19.7%2.6%3.133.24+4.2
201935MLBTampa Bay Rays33331957902405715100%5.930.4%7.2%23.2%2.0%3.052.55+6.5
201935MLBTampa Bay Rays33331957902405715100%5.930.4%7.2%23.2%1.9%3.052.51+6.6
202036MLBTampa Bay Rays993817042104100%4.224.7%5.9%18.8%2.5%4.743.13+0.6
202036MLBTampa Bay Rays993817042104100%4.224.7%5.9%18.8%2.4%4.743.05+0.7
202137MLBAtlanta Braves33331867562165716100%5.628.6%7.5%21.0%2.1%3.342.80+5.6
202137MLBAtlanta Braves33331867562165716100%5.628.6%7.5%21.0%2.1%3.342.81+5.6
202238MLBAtlanta Braves31311727282056328100%5.528.2%8.7%19.5%3.8%4.343.93+3.0
202238MLBAtlanta Braves31311727282056328100%5.528.2%8.7%19.5%3.8%4.343.93+3.0
202339MLBAtlanta Braves30301637161838114100%5.425.6%11.3%14.2%2.0%3.643.45+3.7
202339MLBAtlanta Braves30301637161838114100%5.425.6%11.3%14.2%2.0%3.643.46+3.7
202440MLBAtlanta Braves30301657011676423100%5.523.8%9.1%14.7%3.3%4.194.05+2.6
202440MLBAtlanta Braves30301657011676423100%5.523.8%9.1%14.7%3.3%4.194.05+2.6
202541MLBAtlanta Braves3327142654149702382%4.322.8%10.7%12.1%3.5%5.834.46+1.6
202541MLBAtlanta Braves3327142654149702382%4.322.8%10.7%12.1%3.5%5.834.59+1.4
▸ 2026 Season
202642MLBATL18181084541074615100%6.023.6%10.2%13.4%3.2%4.574.56+1.1
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202743MLBATL151592391884214100%6.222.4%10.9%11.5%3.7%4.824.99+0.3
202743MLBATL151592388874214100%6.122.4%10.9%11.5%3.7%4.824.99+0.3
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career29629016136852176960018398%5.525.8%8.8%17.0%2.7%4.003.50+35.9
/ 200 IP3736200849219742398%5.425.8%8.8%17.0%2.7%4.003.50+4.4
Career28728115526580171156717098%5.426.0%8.6%17.4%2.6%3.893.41+36.1
/ 200 IP3736200848220732298%5.426.0%8.6%17.4%2.6%3.893.41+4.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Profile at Match Age Next 3 Yrs Career
CompAgeRole FIPK%BB%HR/BFBABIP FIPK%K-BB%IP ΔFIPLow FIPIPMatch
Charlie Morton (OGILVIE) 4.56 23.6%10.2%3.2% 4.99 22.4%11.5%92 +0.43
Jose Contreras R 2027 · 3.39 FIP 43 SP 3.39 20.2%8.3%1.7%.263 2.90 20.5%13.4%57 -0.49 2.90 111 38
Francisco Campos R 2026 · 4.67 FIP 42 SP 4.67 11.5%7.9%2.8%.303 3.91 12.2%7.0%197 -0.76 3.85 332 35
Tim Hudson R 2024 · 4.42 FIP 40 SP 4.42 12.2%6.9%2.7%.294 4.42 124 33
Walter Silva R 2026 · 4.77 FIP 42 SP 4.77 9.7%8.8%2.5%.313 3.68 428 32
Bartolo Colon R 2026 · 3.68 FIP 42 SP 3.68 16.7%2.3%3.1%.302 4.62 14.5%10.2%481 +0.94 3.68 676 31
R.A. Dickey R 2026 · 4.44 FIP 42 SP 4.44 16.7%7.9%3.2%.284 4.31 574 28
Juan Antonio Pena L 2025 · 4.46 FIP 41 SW 4.46 13.7%14.1%1.3%.313 4.15 149 0

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

PlayerYrsIP/yrK%BB%HR/9ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION210023.0%10.5%1.334.69
James Kaprielian ('23)310520.5%9.6%1.264.58
Nate Karns ('17)39624.2%9.3%1.224.24
Kyle Wright ('23)38322.4%8.9%1.123.97
Ian Anderson ('22)39122.5%10.4%0.963.97
Triston McKenzie ('24)410526.0%9.4%1.523.94
Tom Koehler ('17)314618.1%10.2%1.244.62