Charlie Morton
PosP
B/TR/R
Born1983-11-12
Age (2026)42
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 31 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 26 | 149 | 643 | 118 | 41 | 13 | 100% | 5.7 | 17.9% | 6.3% | 11.6% | 2.1% | 4.34 | 3.55 | +3.2 |
| 2015 | 31 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 26 | 149 | 643 | 118 | 41 | 13 | 100% | 5.7 | 18.4% | 6.4% | 12.0% | 2.0% | 4.34 | 3.48 | +3.4 |
| 2016 | 32 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 4 | 4 | 17 | 71 | 19 | 8 | 1 | 100% | 4.3 | 26.8% | 11.3% | 15.5% | 1.4% | 4.15 | 3.01 | +0.3 |
| 2016 | 32 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 4 | 4 | 17 | 71 | 19 | 8 | 1 | 100% | 4.3 | 26.8% | 11.3% | 15.5% | 1.4% | 4.15 | 3.04 | +0.3 |
| 2017 | 33 | MIX | 3 levels | 28 | 28 | 157 | 656 | 171 | 53 | 15 | 100% | 5.6 | 26.4% | 7.9% | 18.5% | 2.1% | 3.44 | 3.05 | +4.3 |
| 2017 | 33 | MIX | 3 levels | 28 | 28 | 157 | 656 | 171 | 53 | 15 | 100% | 5.6 | 26.1% | 8.1% | 18.0% | 2.3% | 3.44 | 3.18 | +4.1 |
| 2018 | 34 | MLB | Houston Astros | 30 | 30 | 167 | 695 | 201 | 64 | 18 | 100% | 5.6 | 28.9% | 9.2% | 19.7% | 2.4% | 3.13 | 3.17 | +4.4 |
| 2018 | 34 | MLB | Houston Astros | 30 | 30 | 167 | 695 | 201 | 64 | 18 | 100% | 5.6 | 28.9% | 9.2% | 19.7% | 2.6% | 3.13 | 3.24 | +4.2 |
| 2019 | 35 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 33 | 33 | 195 | 790 | 240 | 57 | 15 | 100% | 5.9 | 30.4% | 7.2% | 23.2% | 2.0% | 3.05 | 2.55 | +6.5 |
| 2019 | 35 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 33 | 33 | 195 | 790 | 240 | 57 | 15 | 100% | 5.9 | 30.4% | 7.2% | 23.2% | 1.9% | 3.05 | 2.51 | +6.6 |
| 2020 | 36 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 9 | 9 | 38 | 170 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 100% | 4.2 | 24.7% | 5.9% | 18.8% | 2.5% | 4.74 | 3.13 | +0.6 |
| 2020 | 36 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 9 | 9 | 38 | 170 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 100% | 4.2 | 24.7% | 5.9% | 18.8% | 2.4% | 4.74 | 3.05 | +0.7 |
| 2021 | 37 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 33 | 33 | 186 | 756 | 216 | 57 | 16 | 100% | 5.6 | 28.6% | 7.5% | 21.0% | 2.1% | 3.34 | 2.80 | +5.6 |
| 2021 | 37 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 33 | 33 | 186 | 756 | 216 | 57 | 16 | 100% | 5.6 | 28.6% | 7.5% | 21.0% | 2.1% | 3.34 | 2.81 | +5.6 |
| 2022 | 38 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 31 | 31 | 172 | 728 | 205 | 63 | 28 | 100% | 5.5 | 28.2% | 8.7% | 19.5% | 3.8% | 4.34 | 3.93 | +3.0 |
| 2022 | 38 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 31 | 31 | 172 | 728 | 205 | 63 | 28 | 100% | 5.5 | 28.2% | 8.7% | 19.5% | 3.8% | 4.34 | 3.93 | +3.0 |
| 2023 | 39 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 30 | 30 | 163 | 716 | 183 | 81 | 14 | 100% | 5.4 | 25.6% | 11.3% | 14.2% | 2.0% | 3.64 | 3.45 | +3.7 |
| 2023 | 39 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 30 | 30 | 163 | 716 | 183 | 81 | 14 | 100% | 5.4 | 25.6% | 11.3% | 14.2% | 2.0% | 3.64 | 3.46 | +3.7 |
| 2024 | 40 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 30 | 30 | 165 | 701 | 167 | 64 | 23 | 100% | 5.5 | 23.8% | 9.1% | 14.7% | 3.3% | 4.19 | 4.05 | +2.6 |
| 2024 | 40 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 30 | 30 | 165 | 701 | 167 | 64 | 23 | 100% | 5.5 | 23.8% | 9.1% | 14.7% | 3.3% | 4.19 | 4.05 | +2.6 |
| 2025 | 41 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 33 | 27 | 142 | 654 | 149 | 70 | 23 | 82% | 4.3 | 22.8% | 10.7% | 12.1% | 3.5% | 5.83 | 4.46 | +1.6 |
| 2025 | 41 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 33 | 27 | 142 | 654 | 149 | 70 | 23 | 82% | 4.3 | 22.8% | 10.7% | 12.1% | 3.5% | 5.83 | 4.59 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 42 | MLB | ATL | 18 | 18 | 108 | 454 | 107 | 46 | 15 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.6% | 10.2% | 13.4% | 3.2% | 4.57 | 4.56 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 43 | MLB | ATL | 15 | 15 | 92 | 391 | 88 | 42 | 14 | 100% | 6.2 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 11.5% | 3.7% | 4.82 | 4.99 | +0.3 |
| 2027 | 43 | MLB | ATL | 15 | 15 | 92 | 388 | 87 | 42 | 14 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 11.5% | 3.7% | 4.82 | 4.99 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 296 | 290 | 1613 | 6852 | 1769 | 600 | 183 | 98% | 5.5 | 25.8% | 8.8% | 17.0% | 2.7% | 4.00 | 3.50 | +35.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 37 | 36 | 200 | 849 | 219 | 74 | 23 | 98% | 5.4 | 25.8% | 8.8% | 17.0% | 2.7% | 4.00 | 3.50 | +4.4 | ||
| Career | — | 287 | 281 | 1552 | 6580 | 1711 | 567 | 170 | 98% | 5.4 | 26.0% | 8.6% | 17.4% | 2.6% | 3.89 | 3.41 | +36.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 37 | 36 | 200 | 848 | 220 | 73 | 22 | 98% | 5.4 | 26.0% | 8.6% | 17.4% | 2.6% | 3.89 | 3.41 | +4.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Charlie Morton (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.56 | 23.6% | 10.2% | 3.2% | — | 4.99 | 22.4% | 11.5% | 92 | +0.43 | — | — | — |
| Jose Contreras R 2027 · 3.39 FIP | 43 | SP | 3.39 | 20.2% | 8.3% | 1.7% | .263 | 2.90 | 20.5% | 13.4% | 57 | -0.49 | 2.90 | 111 | 38 |
| Francisco Campos R 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 42 | SP | 4.67 | 11.5% | 7.9% | 2.8% | .303 | 3.91 | 12.2% | 7.0% | 197 | -0.76 | 3.85 | 332 | 35 |
| Tim Hudson R 2024 · 4.42 FIP | 40 | SP | 4.42 | 12.2% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 124 | 33 |
| Walter Silva R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 42 | SP | 4.77 | 9.7% | 8.8% | 2.5% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 428 | 32 |
| Bartolo Colon R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 42 | SP | 3.68 | 16.7% | 2.3% | 3.1% | .302 | 4.62 | 14.5% | 10.2% | 481 | +0.94 | 3.68 | 676 | 31 |
| R.A. Dickey R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 42 | SP | 4.44 | 16.7% | 7.9% | 3.2% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 574 | 28 |
| Juan Antonio Pena L 2025 · 4.46 FIP | 41 | SW | 4.46 | 13.7% | 14.1% | 1.3% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 149 | 0 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 100 | 23.0% | 10.5% | 1.33 | 4.69 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |
| Nate Karns ('17) | 3 | 96 | 24.2% | 9.3% | 1.22 | 4.24 |
| Kyle Wright ('23) | 3 | 83 | 22.4% | 8.9% | 1.12 | 3.97 |
| Ian Anderson ('22) | 3 | 91 | 22.5% | 10.4% | 0.96 | 3.97 |
| Triston McKenzie ('24) | 4 | 105 | 26.0% | 9.4% | 1.52 | 3.94 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |