Adam Wainwright
PosP
B/TR/R
Born1981-08-30
Age (2026)44
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 33 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 7 | 4 | 28 | 111 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 57% | 4.0 | 18.0% | 3.6% | 14.4% | 0.0% | 1.61 | 2.03 | +0.8 |
| 2015 | 33 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 7 | 4 | 28 | 111 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 57% | 4.0 | 18.0% | 3.6% | 14.4% | 0.0% | 1.61 | 2.10 | +0.8 |
| 2016 | 34 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 33 | 33 | 199 | 847 | 161 | 55 | 22 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.0% | 6.5% | 12.5% | 2.6% | 4.62 | 3.75 | +3.8 |
| 2016 | 34 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 33 | 33 | 199 | 847 | 161 | 55 | 22 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.0% | 6.5% | 12.5% | 2.6% | 4.62 | 3.75 | +3.8 |
| 2017 | 35 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 24 | 23 | 123 | 546 | 96 | 41 | 14 | 96% | 5.1 | 17.6% | 7.5% | 10.1% | 2.6% | 5.11 | 3.98 | +2.0 |
| 2017 | 35 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 24 | 23 | 123 | 546 | 96 | 41 | 14 | 96% | 5.1 | 17.6% | 7.5% | 10.1% | 2.6% | 5.11 | 4.02 | +2.0 |
| 2018 | 36 | MIX | 4 levels | 15 | 15 | 62 | 262 | 65 | 21 | 5 | 100% | 4.2 | 22.1% | 9.4% | 12.7% | 2.8% | 2.89 | 3.95 | +0.5 |
| 2018 | 36 | MIX | 4 levels | 15 | 15 | 62 | 262 | 65 | 21 | 5 | 100% | 4.2 | 24.8% | 8.0% | 16.8% | 1.9% | 2.89 | 3.07 | +1.1 |
| 2019 | 37 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 31 | 31 | 172 | 745 | 153 | 57 | 22 | 100% | 5.5 | 20.5% | 7.7% | 12.9% | 3.0% | 4.19 | 3.96 | +2.9 |
| 2019 | 37 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 31 | 31 | 172 | 745 | 153 | 57 | 22 | 100% | 5.5 | 20.5% | 7.7% | 12.9% | 3.0% | 4.19 | 3.98 | +2.9 |
| 2020 | 38 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 10 | 10 | 66 | 262 | 54 | 15 | 9 | 100% | 6.6 | 20.6% | 5.7% | 14.9% | 3.5% | 3.15 | 3.98 | +0.5 |
| 2020 | 38 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 10 | 10 | 66 | 262 | 54 | 15 | 9 | 100% | 6.6 | 20.6% | 5.7% | 14.9% | 3.4% | 3.15 | 3.92 | +0.6 |
| 2021 | 39 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 32 | 32 | 206 | 828 | 174 | 47 | 21 | 100% | 6.4 | 21.0% | 5.7% | 15.3% | 2.5% | 3.05 | 3.44 | +4.7 |
| 2021 | 39 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 32 | 32 | 206 | 828 | 174 | 47 | 21 | 100% | 6.4 | 21.0% | 5.7% | 15.3% | 2.5% | 3.05 | 3.42 | +4.8 |
| 2022 | 40 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 32 | 32 | 192 | 803 | 143 | 53 | 16 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.8% | 6.6% | 11.2% | 2.0% | 3.71 | 3.53 | +4.2 |
| 2022 | 40 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 32 | 32 | 192 | 803 | 143 | 53 | 16 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.8% | 6.6% | 11.2% | 2.0% | 3.71 | 3.52 | +4.2 |
| 2023 | 41 | MIX | 3 levels | 24 | 24 | 114 | 542 | 68 | 43 | 22 | 100% | 4.8 | 11.4% | 8.5% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 7.26 | 5.49 | -0.1 |
| 2023 | 41 | MIX | 3 levels | 24 | 24 | 114 | 542 | 68 | 43 | 22 | 100% | 4.8 | 12.5% | 7.9% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 7.26 | 5.55 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 44 | MLB | STL | 12 | 12 | 69 | 291 | 48 | 26 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 16.4% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 3.2% | 5.09 | 5.01 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 45 | MLB | STL | 10 | 10 | 59 | 250 | 38 | 24 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 15.3% | 9.6% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 5.30 | 5.44 | -0.6 |
| 2027 | 45 | MLB | STL | 10 | 10 | 59 | 249 | 38 | 24 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 15.3% | 9.6% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 5.29 | 5.43 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 208 | 204 | 1186 | 5057 | 934 | 354 | 138 | 98% | 5.7 | 18.5% | 7.0% | 11.5% | 2.7% | 4.30 | 3.93 | +20.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 34 | 200 | 853 | 158 | 60 | 23 | 98% | 5.7 | 18.5% | 7.0% | 11.5% | 2.7% | 4.30 | 3.93 | +3.4 | ||
| Career | — | 208 | 204 | 1162 | 4946 | 920 | 343 | 134 | 98% | 5.6 | 18.6% | 6.9% | 11.7% | 2.7% | 4.19 | 3.90 | +20.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 36 | 35 | 200 | 852 | 158 | 59 | 23 | 98% | 5.6 | 18.6% | 6.9% | 11.7% | 2.7% | 4.19 | 3.90 | +3.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Adam Wainwright (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.01 | 16.4% | 8.9% | 3.2% | — | 5.44 | 15.3% | 5.7% | 59 | +0.43 | — | — | — |
| Bartolo Colon R 2026 · 4.97 FIP | 44 | SP | 4.97 | 13.7% | 5.4% | 4.3% | .331 | 5.22 | 12.9% | 9.1% | 146 | +0.25 | 3.68 | 676 | 58 |
| Francisco Campos R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 44 | SP | 3.85 | 12.0% | 6.0% | 1.8% | .289 | 5.65 | 9.8% | 1.2% | 40 | +1.80 | 3.85 | 332 | 58 |
| R.A. Dickey R 2024 · 4.44 FIP | 42 | SP | 4.44 | 16.7% | 7.9% | 3.2% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 574 | 49 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 64 | 15.9% | 9.2% | 1.34 | 5.19 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| JC Ramírez ('17) | 3 | 83 | 17.0% | 7.7% | 1.30 | 4.33 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |