Yu Darvish — OGILVIE

Yu Darvish P San Diego Padres

Age 39 RHP 6'5" / 220 lbs MLB peak 1.0 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108100vR 92

ERA4.27

FIP4.30

K%23.9%

BB%7.2%

K-BB%16.6%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 6 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4193.9

Whiff%

p3423.0%

p5423.0%

xwOBA vs

p650.297

FB+3.6 (36%)

SI (21%)

CU (15%)

CT-0.7 (27%)

CH-1.2 (2%)

SL-6.4 (9%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	24	127	522	163	40	14	100%	5.3	30.6%	7.6%	23.0%	2.6%	3.18	2.89	+3.2
2016	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	24	127	522	163	40	14	100%	5.3	31.2%	7.7%	23.6%	2.7%	3.18	2.91	+3.2
2017	30	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	31	31	187	766	209	57	27	100%	6.0	27.3%	7.4%	19.8%	3.4%	3.86	3.59	+3.0
2017	30	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	31	31	187	766	209	57	27	100%	6.0	27.3%	7.4%	19.8%	3.5%	3.86	3.66	+2.8
2018	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	10	46	203	55	22	8	100%	4.6	27.2%	11.7%	15.6%	4.0%	4.50	4.50	+0.2
2018	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	10	46	203	55	22	8	100%	4.6	27.1%	10.8%	16.3%	3.9%	4.50	4.40	+0.3
2019	32	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	31	31	179	731	229	55	33	100%	5.8	31.3%	7.5%	23.8%	4.7%	3.98	3.98	+2.0
2019	32	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	31	31	179	731	229	55	33	100%	5.8	31.3%	7.5%	23.8%	4.5%	3.98	3.86	+2.2
2020	33	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	12	12	76	297	93	13	5	100%	6.3	31.3%	4.4%	26.9%	1.7%	2.01	1.97	+3.0
2020	33	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	12	12	76	297	93	13	5	100%	6.3	31.3%	4.4%	26.9%	1.7%	2.01	2.02	+2.9
2021	34	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	30	30	166	681	199	43	28	100%	5.5	29.2%	6.3%	22.9%	4.0%	4.22	3.63	+2.6
2021	34	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	30	30	166	681	199	43	28	100%	5.5	29.2%	6.3%	22.9%	4.1%	4.22	3.67	+2.5
2022	35	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	30	30	195	771	197	37	22	100%	6.5	25.6%	4.8%	20.8%	2.8%	3.10	3.08	+4.5
2022	35	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	30	30	195	771	197	37	22	100%	6.5	25.6%	4.8%	20.8%	2.9%	3.10	3.12	+4.4
2023	36	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	24	24	136	574	141	43	18	100%	5.7	24.6%	7.5%	17.1%	3.1%	4.56	3.65	+2.1
2023	36	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	24	24	136	574	141	43	18	100%	5.7	24.6%	7.5%	17.1%	3.1%	4.56	3.65	+2.1
2023	36	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	24	24	136	574	141	43	18	100%	5.7	24.6%	7.5%	17.1%	3.1%	4.56	3.69	+2.0
2024	37	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	17	85	349	81	23	13	100%	5.0	23.6%	6.6%	16.9%	3.5%	3.81	3.89	+1.0
2024	37	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	17	85	349	81	23	13	100%	5.0	23.6%	6.6%	16.9%	3.5%	3.81	3.89	+1.0
2024	37	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	17	85	349	81	23	13	100%	5.0	23.2%	6.6%	16.6%	3.7%	3.81	3.99	+0.9
2025	38	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	16	76	310	72	20	15	100%	4.8	23.0%	6.4%	16.6%	4.6%	5.33	4.51	+0.3
2025	38	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	16	76	310	72	20	15	100%	4.8	23.0%	6.4%	16.6%	4.6%	5.33	4.51	+0.3
2025	38	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	16	76	310	72	20	15	100%	4.8	23.2%	6.5%	16.8%	4.8%	5.33	4.56	+0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			214	214	1233	5043	1395	340	178	100%	5.8	27.7%	6.7%	20.9%	3.5%	3.82	3.54	+20.4
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	39	MLB	SD	1	1	6	25	6	2	1	100%	6.0	23.9%	7.2%	16.6%	3.5%	4.27	4.30	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	40	MLB MLE	SD	10	10	63	266	60	21	10	100%	6.3	22.7%	8.0%	14.8%	4.0%	4.55	4.74	+0.1
2027	40	MLB CTX	SD	10	10	63	266	60	21	11	100%	6.3	22.7%	8.0%	14.8%	4.0%	4.60	4.79	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		224	224	1296	5309	1455	361	189	100%	5.8	27.4%	6.8%	20.6%	3.6%	3.86	3.60	+20.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	819	225	56	29	100%	5.8	27.4%	6.8%	20.6%	3.6%	3.86	3.60	+3.2
Career	—	MLE		225	225	1273	5204	1436	355	180	100%	5.7	27.6%	6.8%	20.8%	3.5%	3.81	3.53	+20.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		35	35	200	818	226	56	28	100%	5.7	27.6%	6.8%	20.8%	3.5%	3.81	3.53	+3.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Yu Darvish (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.30	23.9%	7.2%	3.5%	—	4.74	22.7%	14.8%	63	+0.44	—	—	—
John Lackey R 2017 · 5.05 FIP	38	SP	5.05	20.4%	6.8%	5.1%	.260	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	577	55
Kyle Lohse R 2016 · 4.97 FIP	37	SP	4.97	14.8%	6.0%	4.3%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.77	211	55
Yasutomo Kubo R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	38	SP	3.98	20.4%	4.7%	3.6%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	152	55
A.J. Burnett R 2015 · 3.16 FIP	38	SP	3.16	20.5%	6.7%	1.7%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	164	49
Jeremy Guthrie R 2016 · 4.85 FIP	37	SP	4.85	11.6%	8.6%	3.0%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	4.85	235	46
Francisco Campos R 2015 · 4.77 FIP	42	SP	4.77	11.5%	7.9%	3.0%	.303	4.08	12.2%	7.0%	197	-0.69	4.06	332	45
Walter Silva R 2016 · 4.22 FIP	39	SP	4.22	10.3%	5.5%	2.4%	.294	4.35	10.0%	1.8%	235	+0.13	3.67	428	43
Lorenzo Barcelo R 2016 · 3.48 FIP	38	SP	3.48	12.8%	1.1%	2.4%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.28	199	43
Brad Penny R 2015 · 3.68 FIP	37	SP	3.68	12.0%	5.8%	1.6%	.346	—	—	—	—	—	3.68	135	43
Sergio Mitre R 2019 · 4.54 FIP	38	SP	4.54	11.8%	6.5%	2.9%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	4.54	156	42
Tim Hudson R 2015 · 4.41 FIP	40	SP	4.41	12.2%	6.9%	2.7%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	4.41	124	41
Aaron Harang R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	37	SP	4.47	14.4%	6.4%	3.2%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	4.47	172	40
Pablo Ortega R 2016 · 4.01 FIP	39	SP	4.01	8.9%	4.8%	1.9%	.262	4.49	13.3%	7.1%	148	+0.48	4.01	375	39
Ryan Vogelsong R 2016 · 4.79 FIP	39	SP-	4.79	16.7%	10.4%	3.2%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	4.45	217	37
Bartolo Colon R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	42	SP	3.67	16.7%	2.3%	3.1%	.302	4.60	14.5%	10.2%	481	+0.93	3.67	676	34
Jonathan Sánchez L 2019 · 4.73 FIP	36	SP	4.73	18.1%	8.3%	3.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.73	109	29
CC Sabathia L 2019 · 5.19 FIP	39	SP	5.19	22.9%	8.3%	5.4%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	756	28
Logan Duran R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	37	SP-	3.66	15.5%	8.9%	1.4%	.427	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	187	26
Rich Hill L 2019 · 3.60 FIP	39	SP	3.60	29.8%	6.6%	4.0%	.264	3.92	21.6%	13.5%	322	+0.32	2.05	1,030	24
Wandy Rodriguez L 2015 · 3.83 FIP	36	SP-	3.83	19.4%	8.5%	2.4%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	101	23

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	68	23.3%	7.6%	1.44	4.40
Eli Morgan ('24)	1.3	66	23.8%	6.4%	1.46	3.97
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Adbert Alzolay ('23)	1.1	70	26.1%	7.0%	1.32	3.84
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Félix Peña ('20)	1.2	62	23.6%	8.3%	1.37	4.46