Yu Darvish

P San Diego Padres

Age 40 RHP 6'5" / 220 lbs MLB peak 0.6 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	36	MLBSD	24	24	136	4.56	3.69	24.6%	7.5%	2.8
2024	37	MIX2 levels	17	17	85	3.81	3.99	23.2%	6.6%	1.4	K 23.6% · BB 6.6% · FIP 3.89
2025	38	MIX2 levels	16	16	76	5.33	4.56	23.2%	6.5%	0.7	K 23.0% · BB 6.4% · FIP 4.51
2026	39	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	40	MLBSD	9	9	55	4.32	4.45	23.0%	7.5%	0.6
2028PROJ	41	MLBSD	6	6	36	4.72	4.94	21.9%	8.2%	0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 5.0 · Next 2 projected WAR 0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

xwOBA vs65

K%54

FB Velo41

CompsYasutomo Kubo (age 38) · Francisco Campos (age 42) · Pablo Ortega (age 40)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110102vR 94

ERA4.32

FIP4.45

K%23.0%

BB%7.5%

K-BB%15.5%

Proj IP55

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 55 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4193.9

Whiff%

p3423.0%

p5423.0%

xwOBA vs

p650.297

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2012	25	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	29	29	191	816	221	88	14	100%	6.6	27.1%	10.8%	16.3%	1.6%	3.90	3.08	+5.6
2012	25	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	29	29	191	816	221	88	14	100%	6.6	27.1%	10.8%	16.3%	1.7%	3.90	3.12	+5.5
2013	26	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	32	32	210	841	277	79	26	100%	6.6	32.9%	9.4%	23.5%	3.0%	2.83	3.14	+6.0
2013	26	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	32	32	210	841	277	79	26	100%	6.6	32.9%	9.4%	23.5%	3.1%	2.83	3.20	+5.8
2014	27	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	22	22	144	605	182	48	13	100%	6.6	30.1%	7.9%	22.1%	2.1%	3.06	2.70	+5.0
2014	27	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	22	22	144	605	182	48	13	100%	6.6	30.1%	7.9%	22.1%	2.1%	3.06	2.75	+4.9
2016	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	24	127	522	163	40	14	100%	5.3	30.6%	7.6%	23.0%	2.6%	3.18	2.89	+4.0
2016	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	24	127	522	163	40	14	100%	5.3	31.2%	7.7%	23.6%	2.7%	3.18	2.91	+4.0
2017	30	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	31	31	187	766	209	57	27	100%	6.0	27.3%	7.4%	19.8%	3.4%	3.86	3.59	+4.1
2017	30	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	31	31	187	766	209	57	27	100%	6.0	27.3%	7.4%	19.8%	3.5%	3.86	3.66	+4.0
2018	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	10	46	203	55	22	8	100%	4.6	27.2%	11.7%	15.6%	4.0%	4.50	4.50	+0.5
2018	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	10	46	203	55	22	8	100%	4.6	27.1%	10.8%	16.3%	3.9%	4.50	4.40	+0.5
2019	32	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	31	31	179	731	229	55	33	100%	5.8	31.3%	7.5%	23.8%	4.7%	3.98	3.98	+3.0
2019	32	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	31	31	179	731	229	55	33	100%	5.8	31.3%	7.5%	23.8%	4.5%	3.98	3.86	+3.3
2020	33	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	12	12	76	297	93	13	5	100%	6.3	31.3%	4.4%	26.9%	1.7%	2.01	1.97	+3.5
2020	33	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	12	12	76	297	93	13	5	100%	6.3	31.3%	4.4%	26.9%	1.7%	2.01	2.02	+3.4
2021	34	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	30	30	166	681	199	43	28	100%	5.5	29.2%	6.3%	22.9%	4.0%	4.22	3.63	+3.6
2021	34	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	30	30	166	681	199	43	28	100%	5.5	29.2%	6.3%	22.9%	4.1%	4.22	3.67	+3.5
2022	35	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	30	30	195	771	197	37	22	100%	6.5	25.6%	4.8%	20.8%	2.8%	3.10	3.08	+5.7
2022	35	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	30	30	195	771	197	37	22	100%	6.5	25.6%	4.8%	20.8%	2.9%	3.10	3.12	+5.6
2023	36	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	24	24	136	574	141	43	18	100%	5.7	24.6%	7.5%	17.1%	3.1%	4.56	3.65	+2.9
2023	36	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	24	24	136	574	141	43	18	100%	5.7	24.6%	7.5%	17.1%	3.1%	4.56	3.69	+2.8
2024	37	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	17	85	349	81	23	13	100%	5.0	23.6%	6.6%	16.9%	3.5%	3.81	3.89	+1.5
2024	37	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	17	85	349	81	23	13	100%	5.0	23.6%	6.6%	16.9%	3.5%	3.81	3.89	+1.5
2024	37	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	17	85	349	81	23	13	100%	5.0	23.2%	6.6%	16.6%	3.7%	3.81	3.99	+1.4
2025	38	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	16	76	310	72	20	15	100%	4.8	23.0%	6.4%	16.6%	4.6%	5.33	4.51	+0.8
2025	38	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	16	76	310	72	20	15	100%	4.8	23.0%	6.4%	16.6%	4.6%	5.33	4.51	+0.8
2025	38	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	16	76	310	72	20	15	100%	4.8	23.2%	6.5%	16.8%	4.8%	5.33	4.56	+0.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			297	297	1778	7305	2075	555	231	100%	6.0	28.4%	7.6%	20.8%	3.2%	3.65	3.39	+44.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	40	MLB	SD	9	9	55	232	53	17	8	100%	6.1	23.0%	7.5%	15.5%	3.6%	4.32	4.45	+0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	41	MLB MLE	SD	6	6	36	153	34	13	6	100%	6.0	21.9%	8.2%	13.7%	4.0%	4.66	4.88	+0.2
2028	41	MLB CTX	SD	6	6	36	152	33	12	6	100%	6.0	21.9%	8.2%	13.7%	4.1%	4.72	4.94	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		303	303	1814	7458	2109	568	237	100%	6.0	28.3%	7.6%	20.7%	3.2%	3.67	3.42	+44.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	822	232	63	26	100%	6.0	28.3%	7.6%	20.7%	3.2%	3.67	3.42	+4.9
Career	—	MLE		308	308	1818	7466	2116	570	231	100%	5.9	28.3%	7.6%	20.7%	3.1%	3.65	3.37	+44.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		34	34	200	821	233	63	25	100%	5.9	28.3%	7.6%	20.7%	3.1%	3.65	3.37	+4.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2018 ASouth Bend Cubs · 6 IPFIP 3.83 → 5.64 (+1.81)K% 26.1% → 19.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.09%	—	×0.740	19.30%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.35%	—	×1.180	5.13%
HR / BF /BF	4.35%	÷0.881	×1.300	6.42%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 76).

Result: FIP 3.83 → 5.64, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 20 IPFIP 2.35 → 3.04 (+0.69)K% 30.4% → 24.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.38%	—	×0.810	24.61%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.86%	—	×1.100	9.75%
HR / BF /BF	1.27%	÷1.065	×1.200	1.43%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 113).

Result: FIP 2.35 → 3.04, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAARound Rock Express · 7 IPFIP 4.35 → 5.32 (+0.96)K% 25.9% → 22.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.93%	—	×0.880	22.81%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.11%	—	×1.050	11.67%
HR / BF /BF	3.70%	÷0.839	×1.100	4.85%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 68).

Result: FIP 4.35 → 5.32, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

	Profile at Match Age	Next 3 Yrs	Career
Yu Darvish (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.6%	—	4.88	21.9%	13.7%	36	+0.43	—	—	—
Yasutomo Kubo R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	38	SP	3.98	20.4%	4.7%	3.6%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	152	59
Francisco Campos R 2015 · 4.77 FIP	42	SP	4.77	11.5%	7.9%	3.0%	.303	4.08	12.2%	7.0%	197	-0.69	4.06	332	52
Pablo Ortega R 2017 · 4.42 FIP	40	SP	4.42	13.4%	6.0%	3.1%	.298	5.20	12.4%	4.2%	14	+0.78	4.01	375	49
Walter Silva R 2017 · 3.67 FIP	40	SP	3.67	10.4%	7.6%	0.9%	.292	5.03	9.7%	0.9%	118	+1.36	3.67	453	40
Mauricio Lara L 2019 · 4.96 FIP	40	SP	4.96	12.3%	6.8%	3.7%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	444	26
Juan Antonio Pena L 2019 · 4.56 FIP	41	SW	4.56	13.7%	14.1%	1.5%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	149	0

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	9.3	125	28.1%	7.7%	1.24	3.69
Jose Rijo ('84-'02, 33 WAR*)	9.4	145	25.9%*	8.4%*	0.93*	3.56*
James Paxton ('24)	4.8	95	25.3%	7.9%	1.05	3.77
Lance Lynn ('24)	10.0	154	23.7%	8.3%	1.04	3.74
Chris Archer ('22)	6.8	151	25.4%	8.3%	1.09	3.93
Don Gullett ('70-'78, 21 WAR*)	7.0	154	22.8%*	8.5%*	1.16*	3.77*
Floyd Bannister ('77-'92, 28 WAR*)	11.9	159	24.7%*	8.2%*	1.37*	4.18*

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Yu Darvish (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.6%	—	4.88	21.9%	13.7%	36	+0.43	—	—	—
Yasutomo Kubo R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	38	SP	3.98	20.4%	4.7%	3.6%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	152	59
Francisco Campos R 2015 · 4.77 FIP	42	SP	4.77	11.5%	7.9%	3.0%	.303	4.08	12.2%	7.0%	197	-0.69	4.06	332	52
Pablo Ortega R 2017 · 4.42 FIP	40	SP	4.42	13.4%	6.0%	3.1%	.298	5.20	12.4%	4.2%	14	+0.78	4.01	375	49
Walter Silva R 2017 · 3.67 FIP	40	SP	3.67	10.4%	7.6%	0.9%	.292	5.03	9.7%	0.9%	118	+1.36	3.67	453	40
Mauricio Lara L 2019 · 4.96 FIP	40	SP	4.96	12.3%	6.8%	3.7%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	444	26
Juan Antonio Pena L 2019 · 4.56 FIP	41	SW	4.56	13.7%	14.1%	1.5%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	149	0

Yu Darvish

Contract

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Path Comps

Career Comps