Yu Darvish
P
San Diego Padres
Age 39
RHP
6'5" / 220 lbs
MLB
peak 0.6 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 65 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113104vR 95
ERA4.45
FIP4.60
K%23.4%
BB%7.1%
K-BB%16.3%
ROS IP66
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 65 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p4193.9
Whiff%
p3423.0%
K%
p5423.0%
xwOBA vs
p650.297
FB+3.6 (36%)
SI (21%)
CU (15%)
CT-0.7 (27%)
CH-1.2 (2%)
SL-6.4 (9%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 29 | MIX | 3 levels | 24 | 24 | 127 | 522 | 163 | 40 | 14 | 100% | 5.3 | 30.6% | 7.6% | 23.0% | 2.6% | 3.18 | 2.90 | +3.7 |
| 2016 | 29 | MIX | 3 levels | 24 | 24 | 127 | 522 | 163 | 40 | 14 | 100% | 5.3 | 31.2% | 7.7% | 23.6% | 2.7% | 3.18 | 2.91 | +3.7 |
| 2017 | 30 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 31 | 31 | 187 | 766 | 209 | 57 | 27 | 100% | 6.0 | 27.3% | 7.4% | 19.8% | 3.7% | 3.86 | 3.79 | +3.5 |
| 2017 | 30 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 31 | 31 | 187 | 766 | 209 | 57 | 27 | 100% | 6.0 | 27.3% | 7.4% | 19.8% | 3.5% | 3.86 | 3.66 | +3.8 |
| 2018 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 10 | 46 | 203 | 55 | 22 | 8 | 100% | 4.6 | 27.2% | 11.7% | 15.6% | 3.8% | 4.50 | 4.36 | +0.1 |
| 2018 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 10 | 46 | 203 | 55 | 22 | 8 | 100% | 4.6 | 27.1% | 10.8% | 16.3% | 3.9% | 4.50 | 4.40 | +0.1 |
| 2019 | 32 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 31 | 31 | 179 | 731 | 229 | 55 | 33 | 100% | 5.8 | 31.3% | 7.5% | 23.8% | 4.4% | 3.98 | 3.83 | +3.3 |
| 2019 | 32 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 31 | 31 | 179 | 731 | 229 | 55 | 33 | 100% | 5.8 | 31.3% | 7.5% | 23.8% | 4.5% | 3.98 | 3.86 | +3.2 |
| 2020 | 33 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 12 | 12 | 76 | 297 | 93 | 13 | 5 | 100% | 6.3 | 31.3% | 4.4% | 26.9% | 1.6% | 2.01 | 1.91 | +2.6 |
| 2020 | 33 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 12 | 12 | 76 | 297 | 93 | 13 | 5 | 100% | 6.3 | 31.3% | 4.4% | 26.9% | 1.7% | 2.01 | 2.02 | +2.6 |
| 2021 | 34 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 30 | 30 | 166 | 681 | 199 | 43 | 28 | 100% | 5.5 | 29.2% | 6.3% | 22.9% | 4.4% | 4.22 | 3.86 | +3.0 |
| 2021 | 34 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 30 | 30 | 166 | 681 | 199 | 43 | 28 | 100% | 5.5 | 29.2% | 6.3% | 22.9% | 4.1% | 4.22 | 3.67 | +3.4 |
| 2022 | 35 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 30 | 30 | 195 | 771 | 197 | 37 | 22 | 100% | 6.5 | 25.6% | 4.8% | 20.8% | 3.1% | 3.10 | 3.23 | +4.9 |
| 2022 | 35 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 30 | 30 | 195 | 771 | 197 | 37 | 22 | 100% | 6.5 | 25.6% | 4.8% | 20.8% | 2.9% | 3.10 | 3.12 | +5.2 |
| 2023 | 36 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 24 | 24 | 136 | 574 | 141 | 43 | 18 | 100% | 5.7 | 24.6% | 7.5% | 17.1% | 3.4% | 4.56 | 3.83 | +2.5 |
| 2023 | 36 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 24 | 24 | 136 | 574 | 141 | 43 | 18 | 100% | 5.7 | 24.6% | 7.5% | 17.1% | 3.1% | 4.56 | 3.69 | +2.7 |
| 2024 | 37 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 17 | 85 | 349 | 81 | 23 | 13 | 100% | 5.0 | 23.6% | 6.6% | 16.9% | 3.9% | 3.81 | 4.09 | +1.0 |
| 2024 | 37 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 17 | 85 | 349 | 81 | 23 | 13 | 100% | 5.0 | 23.2% | 6.6% | 16.6% | 3.7% | 3.81 | 3.99 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 38 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 16 | 76 | 310 | 72 | 20 | 15 | 100% | 4.8 | 23.0% | 6.4% | 16.6% | 5.1% | 5.33 | 4.76 | +0.1 |
| 2025 | 38 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 16 | 76 | 310 | 72 | 20 | 15 | 100% | 4.8 | 23.2% | 6.5% | 16.8% | 4.8% | 5.33 | 4.56 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 39 | MLB | SD | 10 | 10 | 61 | 259 | 61 | 18 | 10 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.4% | 7.1% | 16.3% | 4.0% | 4.45 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 40 | MLB | SD | 9 | 9 | 53 | 223 | 49 | 17 | 10 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.2% | 7.8% | 14.4% | 4.4% | 4.80 | 5.03 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 40 | MLB | SD | 9 | 9 | 53 | 224 | 50 | 17 | 10 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.2% | 7.8% | 14.4% | 4.3% | 4.71 | 4.94 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 223 | 223 | 1285 | 5266 | 1444 | 357 | 188 | 100% | 5.8 | 27.4% | 6.8% | 20.6% | 3.6% | 3.86 | 3.60 | +27.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 35 | 200 | 819 | 225 | 56 | 29 | 100% | 5.8 | 27.4% | 6.8% | 20.6% | 3.6% | 3.86 | 3.60 | +4.2 | ||
| Career | — | 225 | 225 | 1273 | 5204 | 1436 | 355 | 189 | 100% | 5.7 | 27.6% | 6.8% | 20.8% | 3.6% | 3.81 | 3.63 | +26.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 35 | 200 | 818 | 226 | 56 | 30 | 100% | 5.7 | 27.6% | 6.8% | 20.8% | 3.6% | 3.81 | 3.63 | +4.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Yu Darvish (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.60 | 23.4% | 7.1% | 4.0% | — | 5.03 | 22.2% | 14.4% | 53 | +0.43 | — | — | — |
| Yasutomo Kubo R 2025 · 3.67 FIP | 38 | SP | 3.67 | 20.4% | 4.7% | 3.1% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 152 | 55 |
| John Lackey R 2025 · 4.88 FIP | 38 | SP | 4.88 | 20.4% | 6.8% | 4.8% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 577 | 48 |
| Kyle Lohse R 2024 · 5.53 FIP | 37 | SP | 5.53 | 14.8% | 6.0% | 5.3% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.98 | 211 | 47 |
| Francisco Campos R 2029 · 4.67 FIP | 42 | SP | 4.67 | 11.5% | 7.9% | 2.8% | .303 | 3.91 | 12.2% | 7.0% | 197 | -0.76 | 3.85 | 332 | 45 |
| Walter Silva R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 39 | SP | 4.32 | 10.3% | 5.5% | 2.5% | .294 | 4.23 | 10.0% | 1.8% | 235 | -0.09 | 3.68 | 428 | 44 |
| Sergio Mitre R 2025 · 4.48 FIP | 38 | SP | 4.48 | 11.8% | 6.5% | 2.8% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.48 | 156 | 43 |
| Brad Penny R 2024 · 3.52 FIP | 37 | SP | 3.52 | 12.0% | 5.8% | 1.3% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52 | 135 | 42 |
| Tim Hudson R 2027 · 4.42 FIP | 40 | SP | 4.42 | 12.2% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 124 | 41 |
| Jeremy Guthrie R 2024 · 5.00 FIP | 37 | SP | 5.00 | 11.6% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.00 | 235 | 41 |
| Aaron Harang R 2024 · 4.54 FIP | 37 | SP | 4.54 | 14.4% | 6.4% | 3.4% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.54 | 172 | 40 |
| Pablo Ortega R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 39 | SP | 3.92 | 8.9% | 4.8% | 1.8% | .262 | 4.72 | 13.3% | 7.1% | 148 | +0.80 | 3.92 | 375 | 39 |
| Bartolo Colon R 2029 · 3.68 FIP | 42 | SP | 3.68 | 16.7% | 2.3% | 3.1% | .302 | 4.62 | 14.5% | 10.2% | 481 | +0.94 | 3.68 | 676 | 35 |
| Ryan Vogelsong R 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 39 | SP- | 4.67 | 16.7% | 10.4% | 3.0% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.46 | 217 | 32 |
| Jonathan Sánchez L 2023 · 4.65 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.65 | 18.1% | 8.3% | 3.7% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.65 | 109 | 30 |
| CC Sabathia L 2026 · 5.17 FIP | 39 | SP | 5.17 | 22.9% | 8.3% | 5.4% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.75 | 756 | 25 |
| Logan Duran R 2024 · 3.58 FIP | 37 | SP- | 3.58 | 15.5% | 8.9% | 1.2% | .427 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.36 | 187 | 24 |
| Wandy Rodriguez L 2023 · 3.84 FIP | 36 | SP- | 3.84 | 19.4% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 101 | 22 |
| Mauricio Lara L 2025 · 3.73 FIP | 38 | SP | 3.73 | 12.0% | 6.3% | 1.5% | .301 | 4.73 | 12.3% | 5.5% | 111 | +1.00 | 3.57 | 444 | 21 |
| Barry Zito L 2024 · 4.80 FIP | 37 | SP | 4.80 | 13.6% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.80 | 138 | 20 |
| R.A. Dickey R 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 40 | SP | 4.31 | 14.3% | 6.8% | 2.8% | .253 | 4.63 | 17.0% | 8.7% | 360 | +0.32 | 4.31 | 574 | 19 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 57 | 22.9% | 7.4% | 1.63 | 4.61 |
| Mike Mayers ('23) | 5 | 47 | 24.3% | 7.8% | 1.50 | 4.47 |
| Eli Morgan ('24) | 4 | 66 | 23.8% | 6.4% | 1.46 | 3.97 |
| Fernando Salas ('18) | 4 | 59 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 1.22 | 4.42 |
| Alex Young ('23) | 5 | 52 | 19.5% | 8.6% | 1.61 | 4.43 |
| Austin Voth ('24) | 6 | 58 | 22.2% | 8.2% | 1.50 | 4.63 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |