Yu Darvish
P
San Diego Padres
+0.4
WAR
Age 39
RHP
6'5" / 220 lbs
MLB
peak 0.4 · 2026
ERA4.37
FIP4.35
xFIP4.15
SIERA3.94
K%23.4%
BB%7.1%
K-BB%16.3%
IP66
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2026
K†5555
FB Velo
p4193.9
Whiff%
p3423.0%
K%
p5423.0%
xwOBA vs
p650.297
FB+3.6 (36%)
SI (21%)
CU (15%)
CT-0.7 (27%)
CH-1.2 (2%)
SL-6.4 (9%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 29 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 24 | 24 | 127 | 522 | 163 | 40 | 14 | 30.6% | 7.6% | 2.6% | 3.18 | 2.89 | +3.5 |
| 2017 | 30 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 31 | 31 | 187 | 766 | 209 | 57 | 27 | 27.3% | 7.4% | 3.7% | 3.86 | 3.76 | +3.3 |
| 2018 | 31 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 10 | 10 | 46 | 203 | 55 | 22 | 8 | 27.2% | 11.7% | 4.2% | 4.50 | 4.56 | +0.2 |
| 2019 | 32 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 31 | 31 | 179 | 731 | 229 | 55 | 33 | 31.3% | 7.5% | 4.8% | 3.98 | 4.04 | +2.5 |
| 2020 | 33 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 12 | 12 | 76 | 297 | 93 | 13 | 5 | 31.3% | 4.4% | 1.8% | 2.01 | 1.99 | +2.7 |
| 2021 | 34 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 30 | 30 | 166 | 681 | 199 | 43 | 28 | 29.2% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 4.22 | 3.67 | +3.1 |
| 2022 | 35 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 30 | 30 | 195 | 771 | 197 | 37 | 22 | 25.6% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 3.10 | 2.90 | +5.3 |
| 2023 | 36 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 24 | 24 | 136 | 574 | 141 | 43 | 18 | 24.6% | 7.5% | 3.3% | 4.56 | 3.78 | +2.3 |
| 2024 | 37 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 17 | 17 | 85 | 349 | 81 | 23 | 13 | 23.6% | 6.6% | 3.3% | 3.81 | 3.76 | +1.4 |
| 2025 | 38 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 16 | 16 | 76 | 310 | 72 | 20 | 15 | 23.0% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 5.33 | 4.28 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 39 | MLB | SD | 11 | 11 | 61 | 259 | 61 | 18 | 9 | 23.6% | 7.1% | 3.5% | 4.32 | 4.33 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 40 | MLB | SD | 52 | — | 52 | 221 | 50 | 16 | 8 | 22.7% | 7.4% | 3.7% | 4.44 | 4.52 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 225 | 225 | 1273 | 5204 | 1436 | 355 | 181 | 27.6% | 6.8% | 3.5% | 3.81 | 3.54 | +25.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 35 | 200 | 818 | 226 | 56 | 28 | 27.6% | 6.8% | 3.5% | 3.81 | 3.54 | +4.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Yu Darvish (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.33 | 23.6% | 7.1% | 3.5% | — | 4.52 | 22.7% | 15.3% | 52 | +0.19 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Rodney R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 39 | SW | 3.43 | 26.1% | 12.0% | 1.8% | .288 | 3.50 | 25.4% | 14.2% | 167 | +0.07 | 2.67 | 295 | 60 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 39 | SU | 3.77 | 25.5% | 11.3% | 2.5% | .258 | 4.46 | 21.6% | 11.7% | 50 | +0.69 | 3.55 | 164 | 58 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2025 · 5.44 FIP | 38 | SW | 5.44 | 15.9% | 7.2% | 5.1% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.21 | 225 | 57 |
| Jason Grilli R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 39 | SW | 4.20 | 32.3% | 12.4% | 4.1% | .264 | 5.70 | 26.1% | 16.3% | 40 | +1.50 | 2.03 | 133 | 51 |
| Matt Belisle R 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.33 | 15.4% | 6.2% | 3.2% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.49 | 174 | 49 |
| Kyle Lohse R 2024 · 5.01 FIP | 37 | SW | 5.01 | 14.8% | 6.0% | 4.4% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.01 | 211 | 48 |
| Darren O'Day R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 39 | SU | 3.39 | 27.7% | 8.5% | 2.8% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.01 | 215 | 47 |
| Gaudencio Aguirre R 2029 · 3.26 FIP | 42 | SU | 3.26 | 14.8% | 8.6% | 0.6% | .293 | 3.88 | 14.9% | 6.8% | 75 | +0.62 | 3.26 | 123 | 47 |
| Erubiel Gonzalez R 2025 · 3.48 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.48 | 13.3% | 2.5% | 2.2% | .388 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.00 | 119 | 47 |
| Peter Moylan R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 39 | SU | 4.94 | 17.8% | 11.6% | 3.4% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 174 | 45 |
| Hector Navarro R 2024 · 3.47 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.47 | 11.5% | 5.6% | 1.1% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 126 | 44 |
| Logan Duran R 2024 · 3.65 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.65 | 15.5% | 8.9% | 1.3% | .427 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 187 | 43 |
| Lorenzo Barcelo R 2025 · 3.38 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.38 | 12.8% | 1.1% | 2.2% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 199 | 42 |
| Brad Ziegler R 2025 · 4.01 FIP | 38 | SW | 4.01 | 16.4% | 6.2% | 2.8% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.61 | 257 | 41 |
| Luis Ayala R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 39 | SU | 3.97 | 15.9% | 11.7% | 1.3% | .340 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 119 | 41 |
| Ryan Vogelsong R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 39 | SP- | 4.88 | 16.7% | 10.4% | 3.4% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.44 | 217 | 40 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.16 | 16.8% | 15.2% | 1.0% | .248 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 219 | 40 |
| Daniel Bard R 2025 · 5.03 FIP | 38 | SU | 5.03 | 20.3% | 19.8% | 2.1% | .224 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.45 | 200 | 39 |
| Francisco Campos R 2029 · 4.76 FIP | 42 | SP- | 4.76 | 11.5% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .303 | 4.00 | 12.2% | 7.0% | 197 | -0.76 | 3.95 | 332 | 38 |
| Walter Silva R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 39 | SP- | 4.24 | 10.3% | 5.5% | 2.4% | .294 | 4.33 | 10.0% | 1.8% | 235 | +0.09 | 3.67 | 428 | 36 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.