James Paxton — OGILVIE

James Paxton P Boston Red Sox

Age 37 LHP 6'4" / 212 lbs MLB peak 0.5 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 7 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109118vR 126

ERA4.71

FIP4.93

K%19.1%

BB%10.7%

K-BB%8.5%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 7 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—60

STUF5560

CTRL4050

CMD4045

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3293.2

Whiff%

p2021.1%

p1216.7%

xwOBA vs

p270.339

SI (5%)

CU (30%)

CT-2.1 (3%)

CH-2.3 (7%)

FB-3.0 (60%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	16	74	329	60	31	8	100%	4.6	18.9%	9.4%	9.4%	2.8%	4.28	4.22	+0.6
2015	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	16	74	329	60	31	8	100%	4.6	18.2%	9.4%	8.8%	2.4%	4.28	4.15	+0.7
2016	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	31	172	715	170	36	15	100%	5.5	22.9%	5.1%	17.7%	2.3%	3.77	3.09	+3.9
2016	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	31	172	715	170	36	15	100%	5.5	23.8%	5.0%	18.7%	2.1%	3.77	2.88	+4.4
2017	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	140	568	161	36	10	100%	5.6	28.3%	6.5%	21.7%	1.7%	3.02	2.46	+4.4
2017	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	140	568	161	36	10	100%	5.6	28.3%	6.3%	22.0%	1.8%	3.02	2.50	+4.3
2018	29	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	28	28	160	645	208	42	23	100%	5.7	32.2%	6.5%	25.7%	3.7%	3.76	3.21	+3.4
2018	29	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	28	28	160	645	208	42	23	100%	5.7	32.2%	6.5%	25.7%	3.6%	3.76	3.16	+3.5
2019	30	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	29	29	151	633	186	55	23	100%	5.2	29.4%	8.7%	20.7%	3.4%	3.82	3.59	+2.4
2019	30	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	29	29	151	633	186	55	23	100%	5.2	29.4%	8.7%	20.7%	3.6%	3.82	3.71	+2.2
2020	31	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	5	5	20	90	26	7	4	100%	4.1	28.9%	7.8%	21.1%	4.2%	6.64	3.93	+0.2
2020	31	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	5	5	20	90	26	7	4	100%	4.1	28.9%	7.8%	21.1%	4.4%	6.64	4.13	+0.2
2021	32	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	1	1	1	5	2	1	0	100%	1.3	40.0%	20.0%	20.0%	0.0%	6.75	2.26	+0.0
2021	32	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	1	1	1	5	2	1	0	100%	1.3	40.0%	20.0%	20.0%	0.0%	6.75	2.35	+0.0
2022	33	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	100%	0.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
2022	33	ROK RAW	FCL Red Sox	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	100%	0.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
2023	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	24	118	511	127	49	20	96%	4.7	24.0%	9.3%	14.7%	4.0%	4.82	4.47	+0.6
2023	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	24	118	511	127	49	20	96%	4.7	24.0%	9.3%	14.7%	4.0%	4.82	4.47	+0.6
2023	34	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	24	118	511	127	49	20	96%	4.7	24.9%	9.6%	15.3%	3.9%	4.82	4.40	+0.7
2024	35	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	21	21	100	437	73	50	12	100%	4.8	16.7%	11.4%	5.3%	2.8%	4.40	4.68	+0.2
2024	35	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	21	21	100	437	73	50	12	100%	4.8	16.7%	11.4%	5.3%	2.8%	4.40	4.68	+0.2
2024	35	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	21	21	100	437	73	50	12	100%	4.8	16.7%	11.4%	5.3%	2.7%	4.40	4.69	+0.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			160	160	853	3581	925	273	106	100%	5.3	25.8%	7.6%	18.2%	3.0%	3.89	3.51	+14.5
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	37	MLB	BOS	1	1	7	30	6	3	1	100%	7.0	19.1%	10.7%	8.5%	3.1%	4.71	4.93	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	38	MLB MLE	BOS	12	12	72	303	60	32	11	100%	6.0	20.0%	10.6%	9.4%	3.6%	4.94	5.09	-0.2
2028	39	MLB MLE	BOS	10	10	62	261	49	29	10	100%	6.2	18.8%	11.3%	7.6%	4.0%	5.29	5.52	-0.4
2027	38	MLB CTX	BOS	12	12	72	304	61	32	11	100%	6.0	20.0%	10.6%	9.4%	3.6%	4.94	5.09	-0.2
2028	39	MLB CTX	BOS	10	10	62	262	49	29	11	100%	6.2	18.8%	11.3%	7.6%	4.0%	5.29	5.52	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		182	182	986	4144	1034	334	127	100%	5.4	25.0%	8.1%	16.9%	3.1%	4.06	3.70	+14.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	37	200	840	210	68	26	100%	5.4	25.0%	8.1%	16.9%	3.1%	4.06	3.70	+2.9
Career	—	MLE		182	181	937	3935	1004	307	117	99%	5.1	25.5%	7.8%	17.7%	3.0%	3.97	3.57	+13.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		39	39	200	840	214	66	25	99%	5.1	25.5%	7.8%	17.7%	3.0%	3.97	3.57	+2.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
James Paxton (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.93	19.1%	10.7%	3.1%	—	5.29	19.4%	8.6%	133	+0.36	—	—	—
Jonathan Sánchez L 2019 · 4.73 FIP	36	SP	4.73	18.1%	8.3%	3.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.73	109	72
Francisley Bueno L 2017 · 4.44 FIP	36	SP	4.44	11.7%	8.4%	2.3%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	138	65
Barry Zito L 2015 · 4.52 FIP	37	SP	4.52	13.6%	10.7%	2.2%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	4.52	138	64
Arturo Lopez L 2019 · 5.46 FIP	36	SP	5.46	12.2%	6.8%	4.6%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	4.34	445	64
Juan Antonio Pena L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	37	SP-	4.20	13.6%	9.9%	1.8%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	149	63
Jorge Castillo L 2019 · 4.91 FIP	37	SP	4.91	19.6%	8.1%	4.5%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.50	408	63
Chris Narveson L 2017 · 4.59 FIP	35	SP	4.59	12.2%	10.4%	2.2%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.59	249	62
Wandy Rodriguez L 2015 · 3.83 FIP	36	SP-	3.83	19.4%	8.5%	2.4%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	101	59
Scott Kazmir L 2021 · 4.58 FIP	37	SP	4.58	19.2%	8.8%	3.6%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.84	395	59
Eric Stults L 2015 · 4.27 FIP	35	SP	4.27	14.5%	5.9%	3.0%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	4.27	138	58
CC Sabathia L 2017 · 4.20 FIP	37	SP	4.20	19.3%	7.9%	3.2%	.273	4.35	21.8%	13.9%	260	+0.15	3.76	756	58
Oscar Rivera L 2017 · 5.80 FIP	36	SP	5.80	9.8%	7.8%	4.6%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	3.68	237	54
Horacio Ramirez L 2017 · 4.00 FIP	37	SP	4.00	8.6%	4.5%	1.9%	.306	4.65	5.7%	-0.3%	35	+0.65	3.39	199	53
Jason Lane L 2015 · 5.56 FIP	38	SP	5.56	8.4%	6.2%	4.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	5.56	164	51
J.A. Happ L 2020 · 4.36 FIP	37	SP	4.36	21.4%	7.7%	3.8%	.221	5.11	18.2%	11.0%	152	+0.75	3.37	1,053	49
Walter Silva R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	38	SP	4.15	14.8%	7.4%	2.5%	.311	3.91	10.4%	3.7%	209	-0.24	3.67	428	37
Frankie De La Cruz R 2019 · 4.38 FIP	35	SP-	4.38	16.2%	8.0%	3.0%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.77	240	35
Roberto Hernandez R 2016 · 4.38 FIP	35	SP	4.38	13.8%	7.0%	2.8%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.38	171	35
Jarrett Grube R 2017 · 4.41 FIP	35	SP	4.41	15.8%	8.1%	3.0%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.75	393	35
Jeremy Guthrie R 2016 · 4.85 FIP	37	SP	4.85	11.6%	8.6%	3.0%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	4.85	235	33

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	72	19.3%	10.8%	1.36	4.95
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Jharel Cotton ('22)	1.2	58	19.8%	9.2%	1.59	4.50
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21