James Paxton
P
Boston Red Sox
+0.3
WAR
Age 37
LHP
6'4" / 212 lbs
MLB
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.69
FIP4.86
xFIP5.21
SIERA5.35
K%19.9%
BB%10.4%
K-BB%9.5%
IP83
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
STUF4040
CTRL3535
CMD3030
K†5050
FB Velo
p3293.2
Whiff%
p2021.1%
K%
p1216.7%
xwOBA vs
p270.339
SI (5%)
CU (30%)
CT-2.1 (3%)
CH-2.3 (7%)
FB-3.0 (60%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 26 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 16 | 16 | 74 | 329 | 60 | 31 | 8 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 2.9% | 4.28 | 4.31 | +0.6 |
| 2016 | 27 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 31 | 31 | 172 | 715 | 170 | 36 | 15 | 22.9% | 5.1% | 2.4% | 3.77 | 3.12 | +4.2 |
| 2017 | 28 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 25 | 25 | 140 | 568 | 161 | 36 | 10 | 28.3% | 6.5% | 1.6% | 3.02 | 2.40 | +4.6 |
| 2018 | 29 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 28 | 28 | 160 | 645 | 208 | 42 | 23 | 32.2% | 6.5% | 3.2% | 3.76 | 2.99 | +4.2 |
| 2019 | 30 | MLB | New York Yankees | 29 | 29 | 151 | 633 | 186 | 55 | 23 | 29.4% | 8.7% | 3.5% | 3.82 | 3.66 | +2.8 |
| 2020 | 31 | MLB | New York Yankees | 5 | 5 | 20 | 90 | 26 | 7 | 4 | 28.9% | 7.8% | 3.3% | 6.64 | 3.46 | +0.3 |
| 2021 | 32 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 6.75 | — | — |
| 2022 | 33 | ROK | FCL Red Sox | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2023 | 34 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 25 | 24 | 118 | 511 | 127 | 49 | 20 | 24.2% | 9.7% | 4.3% | 4.82 | 4.65 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 35 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 21 | 21 | 100 | 437 | 73 | 50 | 12 | 16.7% | 11.4% | 2.9% | 4.40 | 4.73 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 37 | MLB | BOS | 15 | 15 | 83 | 352 | 70 | 37 | 11 | 20.0% | 10.4% | 3.2% | 4.70 | 4.86 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 38 | MLB | BOS | 14 | 14 | 77 | 324 | 69 | 32 | 11 | 21.2% | 9.9% | 3.3% | 4.75 | 4.78 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 182 | 181 | 937 | 3935 | 1005 | 310 | 116 | 25.5% | 7.9% | 3.0% | 3.97 | 3.56 | +18.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 39 | 39 | 200 | 840 | 215 | 66 | 25 | 25.5% | 7.9% | 3.0% | 3.97 | 3.56 | +3.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| James Paxton (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.86 | 20.0% | 10.4% | 3.2% | — | 4.78 | 21.2% | 11.3% | 77 | -0.08 | — | — | — |
| Jonathan Sánchez L 2025 · 4.73 FIP | 36 | SP- | 4.73 | 18.1% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.73 | 109 | 73 |
| Juan Antonio Pena L 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 37 | SP- | 4.17 | 13.6% | 9.9% | 1.8% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17 | 149 | 68 |
| Wandy Rodriguez L 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 36 | SP- | 3.85 | 19.4% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 101 | 67 |
| Jorge Castillo L 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 37 | SP- | 4.94 | 19.6% | 8.1% | 4.5% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.49 | 408 | 64 |
| Arturo Lopez L 2025 · 5.45 FIP | 36 | SP- | 5.45 | 12.2% | 6.8% | 4.6% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.33 | 445 | 63 |
| Mauricio Lara L 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 37 | SP- | 3.67 | 12.1% | 7.6% | 1.1% | .294 | 4.32 | 12.2% | 5.6% | 219 | +0.65 | 3.59 | 444 | 62 |
| Chris Narveson L 2024 · 4.63 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.63 | 12.2% | 10.4% | 2.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.62 | 249 | 59 |
| Jorge De La Rosa L 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 37 | SW | 4.12 | 19.3% | 9.5% | 2.6% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 405 | 58 |
| Scott Kazmir L 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 37 | SW | 4.57 | 19.2% | 8.8% | 3.6% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 395 | 54 |
| Francisley Bueno L 2025 · 4.42 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.42 | 11.7% | 8.4% | 2.3% | .351 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.51 | 138 | 52 |
| Barry Zito L 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 37 | SP | 4.55 | 13.6% | 10.7% | 2.3% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.55 | 138 | 46 |
| Horacio Ramirez L 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 37 | SW | 4.06 | 8.6% | 4.5% | 2.0% | .306 | 4.64 | 5.7% | -0.3% | 35 | +0.58 | 3.35 | 199 | 43 |
| Eric Stults L 2024 · 4.27 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.27 | 14.5% | 5.9% | 3.0% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.27 | 138 | 42 |
| CC Sabathia L 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 37 | SP | 4.21 | 19.3% | 7.9% | 3.2% | .273 | 4.39 | 21.8% | 13.9% | 260 | +0.18 | 3.67 | 756 | 40 |
| Craig Breslow L 2026 · 5.15 FIP | 37 | SU | 5.15 | 17.8% | 15.1% | 3.0% | .400 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.28 | 159 | 37 |
| J.A. Happ L 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.92 | 21.4% | 7.7% | 3.0% | .221 | 5.14 | 18.2% | 11.0% | 152 | +1.22 | 3.20 | 1,053 | 36 |
| Walter Silva R 2027 · 4.13 FIP | 38 | SP- | 4.13 | 14.8% | 7.4% | 2.5% | .311 | 3.92 | 10.4% | 3.7% | 209 | -0.21 | 3.67 | 428 | 36 |
| Frankie De La Cruz R 2024 · 4.37 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.37 | 16.2% | 8.0% | 3.0% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.74 | 240 | 36 |
| Oscar Rivera L 2025 · 5.57 FIP | 36 | SU | 5.57 | 9.8% | 7.8% | 4.2% | .252 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.71 | 237 | 35 |
| J.D. Martin R 2025 · 5.87 FIP | 36 | SP- | 5.87 | 13.9% | 12.8% | 4.2% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.85 | 289 | 33 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.