James Paxton

P Boston Red Sox

Age 38 LHP 6'4" / 212 lbs MLB peak 0.8 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	33	ROKBOS	1	1	1	0.00	3.10	0.0%	0.0%	—	K 0.0% · BB 0.0% · FIP 3.10
2023	34	MIX2 levels	25	24	118	4.82	4.40	24.9%	9.6%	1.4	K 24.1% · BB 9.3% · FIP 4.45
2024	35	MLBBOS	21	21	100	4.40	4.69	16.7%	11.4%	0.8
2025	36	No MLB games played
2026	37	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	38	MLBBOS	14	14	86	4.49	4.62	21.0%	10.0%	0.8
2028PROJ	39	MLBBOS	10	10	62	4.66	4.78	21.8%	9.9%	0.4
2029PROJ	40	MLBBOS	7	7	43	4.99	5.21	20.7%	10.6%	0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.2 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024

FB Velo32

xwOBA vs27

K%12

CompsJorge Castillo (age 37) · Mauricio Lara (age 38) · Juan Antonio Pena (age 37)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 106114vR 122

ERA4.49

FIP4.62

K%21.0%

BB%10.0%

K-BB%11.0%

Proj IP86

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 86 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3293.2

Whiff%

p2021.1%

p1216.7%

xwOBA vs

p270.339

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2013	24	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	4	4	24	94	21	5	2	100%	6.0	22.3%	5.3%	17.0%	2.2%	1.50	3.09	+0.7
2013	24	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	4	4	24	94	21	5	2	100%	6.0	22.3%	5.3%	17.0%	2.1%	1.50	3.06	+0.7
2014	25	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	13	13	74	303	59	27	3	100%	5.7	19.5%	8.9%	10.6%	1.0%	3.04	3.14	+2.1
2014	25	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	13	13	74	303	59	27	3	100%	5.7	19.5%	8.9%	10.6%	1.0%	3.04	3.13	+2.1
2015	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	16	74	329	60	31	8	100%	4.6	18.9%	9.4%	9.4%	2.8%	4.28	4.22	+1.0
2015	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	16	74	329	60	31	8	100%	4.6	18.2%	9.4%	8.8%	2.4%	4.28	4.15	+1.1
2016	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	31	172	715	170	36	15	100%	5.5	22.9%	5.1%	17.7%	2.3%	3.77	3.09	+4.9
2016	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	31	172	715	170	36	15	100%	5.5	23.8%	5.0%	18.7%	2.1%	3.77	2.88	+5.4
2017	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	140	568	161	36	10	100%	5.6	28.3%	6.5%	21.7%	1.7%	3.02	2.46	+5.3
2017	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	140	568	161	36	10	100%	5.6	28.3%	6.3%	22.0%	1.8%	3.02	2.50	+5.2
2018	29	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	28	28	160	645	208	42	23	100%	5.7	32.2%	6.5%	25.7%	3.7%	3.76	3.21	+4.4
2018	29	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	28	28	160	645	208	42	23	100%	5.7	32.2%	6.5%	25.7%	3.6%	3.76	3.16	+4.5
2019	30	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	29	29	151	633	186	55	23	100%	5.2	29.4%	8.7%	20.7%	3.4%	3.82	3.59	+3.3
2019	30	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	29	29	151	633	186	55	23	100%	5.2	29.4%	8.7%	20.7%	3.6%	3.82	3.71	+3.1
2020	31	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	5	5	20	90	26	7	4	100%	4.1	28.9%	7.8%	21.1%	4.2%	6.64	3.93	+0.4
2020	31	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	5	5	20	90	26	7	4	100%	4.1	28.9%	7.8%	21.1%	4.4%	6.64	4.13	+0.3
2021	32	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	1	1	1	5	2	1	0	100%	1.3	40.0%	20.0%	20.0%	0.0%	6.75	2.26	+0.1
2021	32	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	1	1	1	5	2	1	0	100%	1.3	40.0%	20.0%	20.0%	0.0%	6.75	2.35	+0.0
2022	33	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	100%	0.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
2022	33	ROK RAW	FCL Red Sox	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	100%	0.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
2023	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	24	118	511	127	49	20	96%	4.7	24.1%	9.3%	14.9%	4.0%	4.82	4.45	+1.3
2023	34	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	24	118	511	127	49	20	96%	4.7	24.9%	9.6%	15.3%	3.9%	4.82	4.40	+1.4
2024	35	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	21	21	100	437	73	50	12	100%	4.8	16.7%	11.4%	5.3%	2.8%	4.40	4.68	+0.8
2024	35	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	21	21	100	437	73	50	12	100%	4.8	16.7%	11.4%	5.3%	2.8%	4.40	4.68	+0.8
2024	35	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	21	21	100	437	73	50	12	100%	4.8	16.7%	11.4%	5.3%	2.7%	4.40	4.69	+0.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			177	177	951	3978	1005	305	111	100%	5.4	25.3%	7.7%	17.6%	2.8%	3.77	3.47	+22.5
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	38	MLB	BOS	14	14	86	363	76	36	11	100%	6.1	21.0%	10.0%	11.0%	3.0%	4.49	4.62	+0.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	39	MLB MLE	BOS	10	10	62	263	57	26	9	100%	6.2	21.8%	9.9%	11.9%	3.4%	4.66	4.78	+0.4
2029	40	MLB MLE	BOS	7	7	43	183	38	19	7	100%	6.2	20.7%	10.6%	10.1%	3.9%	4.99	5.21	+0.1
2028	39	MLB CTX	BOS	10	10	62	262	57	26	9	100%	6.2	21.8%	9.9%	11.9%	3.4%	4.66	4.78	+0.4
2029	40	MLB CTX	BOS	7	7	43	182	38	19	7	100%	6.1	20.7%	10.6%	10.1%	3.9%	4.99	5.21	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		195	195	1057	4425	1100	351	127	100%	5.4	24.9%	7.9%	16.9%	2.9%	3.87	3.58	+23.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	37	200	837	208	66	24	100%	5.4	24.9%	7.9%	16.9%	2.9%	3.87	3.58	+4.4
Career	—	MLE		199	198	1035	4332	1085	339	122	99%	5.2	25.0%	7.8%	17.2%	2.8%	3.84	3.53	+22.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		38	38	200	837	210	66	24	99%	5.2	25.0%	7.8%	17.2%	2.8%	3.84	3.53	+4.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2023 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 22 IPFIP 4.03 → 4.23 (+0.21)K% 26.0% → 22.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.00%	—	×0.860	22.36%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.00%	—	×0.900	14.40%
HR / BF /BF	2.00%	÷1.008	×1.100	2.18%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 102).

Result: FIP 4.03 → 4.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAATacoma Rainiers · 51 IPFIP 3.45 → 4.13 (+0.68)K% 26.0% → 22.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.98%	—	×0.880	22.86%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.35%	—	×1.050	7.72%
HR / BF /BF	2.94%	÷0.896	×1.100	3.61%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 79).

Result: FIP 3.45 → 4.13, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAATacoma Rainiers · 7 IPFIP 3.23 → 3.42 (+0.19)K% 12.5% → 11.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	12.50%	—	×0.880	11.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.38%	—	×1.050	9.84%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.127	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.23 → 3.42, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
James Paxton (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.0%	—	4.96	21.3%	11.2%	106	+0.34	—	—	—
Jorge Castillo L 2019 · 4.91 FIP	37	SP	4.91	19.6%	8.1%	4.5%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.50	408	68
Mauricio Lara L 2017 · 3.70 FIP	38	SP	3.70	12.0%	6.3%	1.5%	.301	4.96	12.3%	5.5%	111	+1.26	3.62	444	65
Juan Antonio Pena L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	37	SP-	4.20	13.6%	9.9%	1.8%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	149	64
Oscar Rivera L 2017 · 5.80 FIP	36	SP	5.80	9.8%	7.8%	4.6%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	3.68	237	52
Jason Lane L 2015 · 5.56 FIP	38	SP	5.56	8.4%	6.2%	4.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	5.56	164	51
Walter Silva R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	38	SP	4.15	14.8%	7.4%	2.5%	.311	3.91	10.4%	3.7%	209	-0.24	3.67	453	35
Jose Oyervides R 2019 · 5.66 FIP	37	SP	5.66	16.3%	11.2%	4.6%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	407	34
Yasutomo Kubo R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	38	SP	3.98	20.4%	4.7%	3.6%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	152	32
Pablo Ortega R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	38	SP	4.52	8.6%	7.3%	2.2%	.291	4.24	11.5%	6.0%	236	-0.28	4.01	375	30
Jon Leicester R 2015 · 3.76 FIP	36	SP	3.76	12.3%	5.9%	1.7%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	113	30
Ivan Maldonado R 2016 · 5.41 FIP	36	SP	5.41	6.4%	9.7%	3.0%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.60	172	27
Logan Duran R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	37	SP-	3.66	15.5%	8.9%	1.4%	.427	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	187	18
Lorenzo Barcelo R 2016 · 3.48 FIP	38	SP	3.48	12.8%	1.1%	2.4%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.14	259	17
Jonathan Castellanos R 2019 · 5.24 FIP	37	SW	5.24	11.0%	9.0%	3.5%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	394	12
Hiroki Kuroda R 2013 · 3.44 FIP	38	SP	3.44	18.2%	5.0%	2.3%	.279	3.39	17.8%	13.5%	199	-0.05	2.96	1,319	7

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.7	88	24.6%	8.3%	1.12	3.92
Rich Hill ('25)	7.1	101	23.9%	9.2%	1.12	4.02
Joe Hesketh ('84-'94, 10 WAR*)	4.8	87	23.2%*	8.8%*	1.07*	3.95*
Pete Richert ('62-'74, 13 WAR*)	5.8	90	24.4%*	8.8%*	1.26*	4.04*
Collin McHugh ('23)	5.0	90	23.3%	6.7%	0.96	3.72
Danny Duffy ('21)	5.9	107	21.1%	8.7%	1.11	3.95
Skip Lockwood ('69-'80, 11 WAR*)	6.2	103	22.5%*	9.1%*	1.06*	4.28*