James Paxton
P
Boston Red Sox
Age 37
LHP
6'4" / 212 lbs
MLB
peak 0.5 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 83 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110119vR 129
ERA4.70
FIP4.90
K%19.2%
BB%10.8%
K-BB%8.4%
ROS IP83
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 83 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p3293.2
Whiff%
p2021.1%
K%
p1216.7%
xwOBA vs
p270.339
SI (5%)
CU (30%)
CT-2.1 (3%)
CH-2.3 (7%)
FB-3.0 (60%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 16 | 74 | 329 | 60 | 31 | 8 | 100% | 4.6 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 2.8% | 4.28 | 4.26 | +0.5 |
| 2015 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 16 | 74 | 329 | 60 | 31 | 8 | 100% | 4.6 | 18.2% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 2.4% | 4.28 | 4.15 | +0.6 |
| 2016 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 31 | 172 | 715 | 170 | 36 | 15 | 100% | 5.5 | 22.9% | 5.1% | 17.7% | 2.5% | 3.77 | 3.18 | +4.4 |
| 2016 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 31 | 172 | 715 | 170 | 36 | 15 | 100% | 5.5 | 23.8% | 5.0% | 18.7% | 2.1% | 3.77 | 2.88 | +5.1 |
| 2017 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 140 | 568 | 161 | 36 | 10 | 100% | 5.6 | 28.3% | 6.5% | 21.7% | 1.7% | 3.02 | 2.48 | +4.8 |
| 2017 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 140 | 568 | 161 | 36 | 10 | 100% | 5.6 | 28.3% | 6.3% | 22.0% | 1.8% | 3.02 | 2.50 | +4.7 |
| 2018 | 29 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 28 | 28 | 160 | 645 | 208 | 42 | 23 | 100% | 5.7 | 32.2% | 6.5% | 25.7% | 3.8% | 3.76 | 3.26 | +4.0 |
| 2018 | 29 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 28 | 28 | 160 | 645 | 208 | 42 | 23 | 100% | 5.7 | 32.2% | 6.5% | 25.7% | 3.6% | 3.76 | 3.16 | +4.2 |
| 2019 | 30 | MLB | New York Yankees | 29 | 29 | 151 | 633 | 186 | 55 | 23 | 100% | 5.2 | 29.4% | 8.7% | 20.7% | 3.4% | 3.82 | 3.57 | +3.2 |
| 2019 | 30 | MLB | New York Yankees | 29 | 29 | 151 | 633 | 186 | 55 | 23 | 100% | 5.2 | 29.4% | 8.7% | 20.7% | 3.6% | 3.82 | 3.71 | +3.0 |
| 2020 | 31 | MLB | New York Yankees | 5 | 5 | 20 | 90 | 26 | 7 | 4 | 100% | 4.1 | 28.9% | 7.8% | 21.1% | 4.1% | 6.64 | 3.91 | +0.2 |
| 2020 | 31 | MLB | New York Yankees | 5 | 5 | 20 | 90 | 26 | 7 | 4 | 100% | 4.1 | 28.9% | 7.8% | 21.1% | 4.4% | 6.64 | 4.13 | +0.1 |
| 2021 | 32 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 1.3 | 40.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% | 0.0% | 6.75 | 2.26 | +0.0 |
| 2021 | 32 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 1.3 | 40.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% | 0.0% | 6.75 | 2.35 | +0.0 |
| 2022 | 33 | ROK | FCL Red Sox | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 0.7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 3.10 | — |
| 2022 | 33 | ROK | FCL Red Sox | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 0.7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 3.10 | — |
| 2023 | 34 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 24 | 118 | 511 | 127 | 49 | 20 | 96% | 4.7 | 24.2% | 9.7% | 14.5% | 3.9% | 4.82 | 4.43 | +1.3 |
| 2023 | 34 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 24 | 118 | 511 | 127 | 49 | 20 | 96% | 4.7 | 24.9% | 9.6% | 15.3% | 3.9% | 4.82 | 4.40 | +1.4 |
| 2024 | 35 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 21 | 21 | 100 | 437 | 73 | 50 | 12 | 100% | 4.8 | 16.7% | 11.4% | 5.3% | 2.7% | 4.40 | 4.63 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 35 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 21 | 21 | 100 | 437 | 73 | 50 | 12 | 100% | 4.8 | 16.7% | 11.4% | 5.3% | 2.7% | 4.40 | 4.69 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 37 | MLB | BOS | 14 | 14 | 83 | 352 | 68 | 38 | 11 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.2% | 10.8% | 8.4% | 3.1% | 4.70 | 4.90 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 38 | MLB | BOS | 12 | 12 | 72 | 303 | 61 | 32 | 11 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.0% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 3.5% | 4.92 | 5.07 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 39 | MLB | BOS | 10 | 10 | 62 | 261 | 49 | 30 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 18.9% | 11.3% | 7.5% | 4.0% | 5.27 | 5.50 | -0.7 |
| 2029 | 40 | MLB | BOS | 9 | 9 | 53 | 224 | 40 | 27 | 10 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.7% | 12.0% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 5.67 | 5.93 | -0.9 |
| 2027 | 38 | MLB | BOS | 12 | 12 | 72 | 304 | 61 | 32 | 11 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.0% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 3.5% | 4.92 | 5.07 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 39 | MLB | BOS | 10 | 10 | 62 | 262 | 49 | 30 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 18.9% | 11.3% | 7.5% | 4.0% | 5.27 | 5.50 | -0.7 |
| 2029 | 40 | MLB | BOS | 9 | 9 | 53 | 224 | 40 | 27 | 10 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.7% | 12.0% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 5.67 | 5.93 | -0.9 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 191 | 191 | 1040 | 4368 | 1074 | 362 | 137 | 100% | 5.4 | 24.6% | 8.3% | 16.3% | 3.1% | 4.14 | 3.79 | +19.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 37 | 37 | 200 | 840 | 207 | 70 | 26 | 100% | 5.4 | 24.6% | 8.3% | 16.3% | 3.1% | 4.14 | 3.79 | +3.8 | ||
| Career | — | 182 | 181 | 937 | 3935 | 1005 | 310 | 118 | 99% | 5.1 | 25.5% | 7.9% | 17.7% | 3.0% | 3.97 | 3.59 | +19.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 39 | 39 | 200 | 840 | 215 | 66 | 25 | 99% | 5.1 | 25.5% | 7.9% | 17.7% | 3.0% | 3.97 | 3.59 | +4.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| James Paxton (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.90 | 19.2% | 10.8% | 3.1% | — | 5.46 | 19.0% | 7.7% | 186 | +0.56 | — | — | — |
| Jonathan Sánchez L 2025 · 4.65 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.65 | 18.1% | 8.3% | 3.7% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.65 | 109 | 72 |
| Francisley Bueno L 2025 · 4.60 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.60 | 11.7% | 8.4% | 2.6% | .351 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 138 | 65 |
| Barry Zito L 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 37 | SP | 4.80 | 13.6% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.80 | 138 | 65 |
| Arturo Lopez L 2025 · 5.22 FIP | 36 | SP | 5.22 | 12.2% | 6.8% | 4.2% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.24 | 445 | 64 |
| Juan Antonio Pena L 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 37 | SP- | 4.15 | 13.6% | 9.9% | 1.7% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 149 | 63 |
| C.J. Wilson L 2023 · 3.77 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.77 | 19.9% | 8.0% | 2.4% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 132 | 63 |
| Jorge Castillo L 2026 · 5.23 FIP | 37 | SP | 5.23 | 19.6% | 8.1% | 5.0% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.40 | 408 | 61 |
| Chris Narveson L 2024 · 4.40 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.40 | 12.2% | 10.4% | 1.8% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.40 | 249 | 60 |
| Wandy Rodriguez L 2025 · 3.84 FIP | 36 | SP- | 3.84 | 19.4% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 101 | 59 |
| Scott Kazmir L 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 37 | SP | 4.59 | 19.2% | 8.8% | 3.6% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.72 | 395 | 59 |
| Eric Stults L 2024 · 4.25 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.25 | 14.5% | 5.9% | 2.9% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 138 | 58 |
| CC Sabathia L 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 37 | SP | 4.19 | 19.3% | 7.9% | 3.1% | .273 | 4.34 | 21.8% | 13.9% | 260 | +0.15 | 3.75 | 756 | 55 |
| Oscar Rivera L 2025 · 5.36 FIP | 36 | SP | 5.36 | 9.8% | 7.8% | 3.8% | .252 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 237 | 55 |
| J.A. Happ L 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 37 | SP | 4.34 | 21.4% | 7.7% | 3.8% | .221 | 4.94 | 18.2% | 11.0% | 152 | +0.60 | 3.28 | 1,053 | 54 |
| Horacio Ramirez L 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 37 | SP | 4.15 | 8.6% | 4.5% | 2.2% | .306 | 4.62 | 5.7% | -0.3% | 35 | +0.47 | 3.28 | 199 | 53 |
| Jason Lane L 2027 · 5.79 FIP | 38 | SP | 5.79 | 8.4% | 6.2% | 4.8% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.79 | 164 | 50 |
| Walter Silva R 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 38 | SP | 3.95 | 14.8% | 7.4% | 2.1% | .311 | 3.96 | 10.4% | 3.7% | 209 | +0.01 | 3.68 | 428 | 36 |
| Frankie De La Cruz R 2024 · 4.34 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.34 | 16.2% | 8.0% | 2.9% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 240 | 35 |
| Jarrett Grube R 2024 · 4.16 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.16 | 15.8% | 8.1% | 2.5% | .296 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 393 | 35 |
| Roberto Hernandez R 2024 · 4.22 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.22 | 13.8% | 7.0% | 2.5% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.22 | 171 | 33 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 67 | 19.0% | 11.1% | 1.41 | 5.08 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |