Collin McHugh
P
Atlanta Braves
+0.2
WAR
Age 39
RHP
6'2" / 191 lbs
MLB
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA4.31
FIP4.31
xFIP4.62
SIERA4.51
K%21.9%
BB%8.9%
K-BB%13.1%
IP48
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
STUF5555
CTRL6060
CMD6060
K†4545
FB Velo
p1091.3
Whiff%
p5325.7%
K%
p1817.5%
xwOBA vs
p210.346
CT+0.6
SL-3.5
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 28 | MLB | Houston Astros | 32 | 32 | 204 | 859 | 171 | 51 | 19 | 19.9% | 5.9% | 2.1% | 3.89 | 3.30 | +4.6 |
| 2016 | 29 | MLB | Houston Astros | 33 | 33 | 185 | 796 | 177 | 53 | 25 | 22.2% | 6.7% | 3.1% | 4.34 | 3.76 | +3.2 |
| 2017 | 30 | MLB | Houston Astros | 17 | 17 | 79 | 345 | 74 | 25 | 8 | 21.0% | 7.2% | 2.4% | 3.86 | 3.57 | +1.4 |
| 2018 | 31 | MLB | Houston Astros | 58 | 0 | 72 | 283 | 94 | 21 | 6 | 33.2% | 7.4% | 2.0% | 1.99 | 2.35 | +2.2 |
| 2019 | 32 | MLB | Houston Astros | 39 | 8 | 78 | 333 | 87 | 32 | 13 | 25.9% | 9.5% | 3.7% | 4.83 | 4.13 | +0.9 |
| 2021 | 34 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 37 | 7 | 64 | 247 | 74 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 4.0% | 1.3% | 1.55 | 1.78 | +2.3 |
| 2022 | 35 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 58 | 0 | 69 | 272 | 75 | 13 | 5 | 27.6% | 4.8% | 1.6% | 2.60 | 2.27 | +2.2 |
| 2023 | 36 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 45 | 2 | 66 | 300 | 56 | 25 | 5 | 17.5% | 7.8% | 1.8% | 4.39 | 3.59 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 39 | MLB | ATL | 44 | — | 44 | 187 | 37 | 17 | 5 | 19.9% | 8.9% | 2.8% | 4.21 | 4.47 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 40 | MLB | ATL | 38 | — | 38 | 160 | 30 | 15 | 5 | 19.1% | 9.2% | 3.0% | 4.48 | 4.66 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 319 | 99 | 817 | 3435 | 802 | 228 | 82 | 23.4% | 6.6% | 2.4% | 3.66 | 3.27 | +18.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 78 | 24 | 200 | 841 | 196 | 56 | 20 | 23.4% | 6.6% | 2.4% | 3.66 | 3.27 | +4.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Collin McHugh (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.47 | 19.9% | 8.9% | 2.8% | — | 4.66 | 19.1% | 9.9% | 38 | +0.19 | — | — | — |
| Matt Belisle R 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.33 | 15.4% | 6.2% | 3.2% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.49 | 174 | 65 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 39 | SU | 3.77 | 25.5% | 11.3% | 2.5% | .258 | 4.46 | 21.6% | 11.7% | 50 | +0.69 | 3.55 | 164 | 64 |
| Darren O'Day R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 39 | SU | 3.39 | 27.7% | 8.5% | 2.8% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.01 | 215 | 64 |
| Peter Moylan R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 39 | SU | 4.94 | 17.8% | 11.6% | 3.4% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 174 | 64 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2025 · 5.44 FIP | 38 | SW | 5.44 | 15.9% | 7.2% | 5.1% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.21 | 225 | 63 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 39 | SW | 3.43 | 26.1% | 12.0% | 1.8% | .288 | 3.50 | 25.4% | 14.2% | 167 | +0.07 | 2.67 | 295 | 62 |
| Kyle Lohse R 2024 · 5.01 FIP | 37 | SW | 5.01 | 14.8% | 6.0% | 4.4% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.01 | 211 | 59 |
| Hector Navarro R 2024 · 3.47 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.47 | 11.5% | 5.6% | 1.1% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 126 | 59 |
| Luis Ayala R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 39 | SU | 3.97 | 15.9% | 11.7% | 1.3% | .340 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 119 | 58 |
| Logan Duran R 2024 · 3.65 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.65 | 15.5% | 8.9% | 1.3% | .427 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 187 | 58 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.16 | 16.8% | 15.2% | 1.0% | .248 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 219 | 57 |
| Chris Young R 2025 · 5.54 FIP | 38 | SU | 5.54 | 14.9% | 8.1% | 4.9% | .374 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.62 | 242 | 56 |
| Brad Ziegler R 2025 · 4.01 FIP | 38 | SW | 4.01 | 16.4% | 6.2% | 2.8% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.61 | 257 | 55 |
| Erubiel Gonzalez R 2025 · 3.48 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.48 | 13.3% | 2.5% | 2.2% | .388 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.00 | 119 | 54 |
| Daniel Bard R 2025 · 5.03 FIP | 38 | SU | 5.03 | 20.3% | 19.8% | 2.1% | .224 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.45 | 200 | 53 |
| Lorenzo Barcelo R 2025 · 3.38 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.38 | 12.8% | 1.1% | 2.2% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 199 | 48 |
| Jason Grilli R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 39 | SW | 4.20 | 32.3% | 12.4% | 4.1% | .264 | 5.70 | 26.1% | 16.3% | 40 | +1.50 | 2.03 | 133 | 47 |
| Ryan Vogelsong R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 39 | SP- | 4.88 | 16.7% | 10.4% | 3.4% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.44 | 217 | 41 |
| Francisco Campos R 2029 · 4.76 FIP | 42 | SP- | 4.76 | 11.5% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .303 | 4.00 | 12.2% | 7.0% | 197 | -0.76 | 3.95 | 332 | 39 |
| Walter Silva R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 39 | SP- | 4.24 | 10.3% | 5.5% | 2.4% | .294 | 4.33 | 10.0% | 1.8% | 235 | +0.09 | 3.67 | 428 | 37 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.