Collin McHugh — OGILVIE

Collin McHugh P Atlanta Braves

Age 39 RHP 6'2" / 191 lbs MLB peak 0.3 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 13 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 104

ERA4.19

FIP4.39

K%21.0%

BB%8.9%

K-BB%12.1%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 13 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL6060

CMD6060

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.3

Whiff%

p5325.7%

p1817.5%

xwOBA vs

p210.346

CT+0.6

SL-3.5

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	28	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	32	32	204	859	171	51	19	100%	6.4	19.9%	5.9%	14.0%	2.3%	3.89	3.42	+3.7
2015	28	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	32	32	204	859	171	51	19	100%	6.4	19.9%	5.9%	14.0%	2.2%	3.89	3.38	+3.8
2016	29	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	33	33	185	796	177	53	25	100%	5.6	22.2%	6.7%	15.6%	3.2%	4.34	3.84	+2.4
2016	29	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	33	33	185	796	177	53	25	100%	5.6	22.2%	6.7%	15.6%	3.1%	4.34	3.80	+2.4
2017	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	17	79	345	74	25	8	100%	4.7	21.0%	7.2%	13.8%	2.5%	3.86	3.60	+1.2
2017	30	MIX RAW	3 levels	17	17	79	345	74	25	8	100%	4.7	21.4%	7.2%	14.2%	2.3%	3.86	3.49	+1.4
2018	31	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	58	0	72	283	94	21	6	0%	1.2	33.2%	7.4%	25.8%	2.2%	1.99	2.43	+1.8
2018	31	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	58	0	72	283	94	21	6	0%	1.2	33.2%	7.4%	25.8%	2.1%	1.99	2.45	+1.8
2019	32	MIX MLE	3 levels	39	8	78	333	87	32	13	21%	2.0	25.9%	9.5%	16.4%	3.9%	4.83	4.25	+0.3
2019	32	MIX RAW	3 levels	39	8	78	333	87	32	13	21%	2.0	26.1%	9.6%	16.5%	3.9%	4.83	4.26	+0.3
2021	34	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	37	7	64	247	74	10	3	19%	1.7	30.0%	4.0%	25.9%	1.2%	1.55	1.77	+2.2
2021	34	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	37	7	64	247	74	10	3	19%	1.7	30.0%	4.0%	25.9%	1.2%	1.55	1.87	+2.1
2022	35	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	58	0	69	272	75	13	5	0%	1.2	27.6%	4.8%	22.8%	1.8%	2.60	2.39	+1.8
2022	35	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	58	0	69	272	75	13	5	0%	1.2	27.6%	4.8%	22.8%	1.8%	2.60	2.44	+1.8
2023	36	MIX MLE	3 levels	45	2	66	300	56	25	5	4%	1.5	17.5%	7.8%	9.7%	1.9%	4.39	3.64	+0.7
2023	36	MIX MLE	3 levels	45	2	66	300	56	25	5	4%	1.5	17.5%	7.8%	9.7%	1.9%	4.39	3.64	+0.7
2023	36	MIX RAW	3 levels	45	2	66	300	56	25	5	4%	1.5	18.7%	8.3%	10.3%	1.7%	4.39	3.53	+0.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			306	93	791	3313	782	219	82	30%	2.6	23.6%	6.6%	17.0%	2.5%	3.60	3.30	+11.9
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	39	MLB	ATL	12	0	13	55	12	5	2	0%	1.1	21.0%	8.9%	12.1%	2.8%	4.19	4.39	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	40	MLB MLE	ATL	133	0	140	591	117	57	19	0%	1.1	19.9%	9.6%	10.3%	3.3%	4.57	4.82	-0.4
2027	40	MLB CTX	ATL	133	0	140	591	117	57	19	0%	1.1	19.9%	9.6%	10.3%	3.3%	4.57	4.82	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		439	93	931	3904	899	276	101	21%	2.1	23.0%	7.1%	16.0%	2.6%	3.74	3.47	+12.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		94	20	200	839	193	59	22	21%	2.1	23.0%	7.1%	16.0%	2.6%	3.74	3.47	+2.6
Career	—	MLE		319	99	817	3435	802	228	87	31%	2.6	23.4%	6.6%	16.7%	2.5%	3.66	3.35	+11.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		78	24	200	841	196	56	21	31%	2.6	23.4%	6.6%	16.7%	2.5%	3.66	3.35	+2.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Collin McHugh (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.39	21.0%	8.9%	2.8%	—	4.82	19.9%	10.3%	140	+0.43	—	—	—
Ryan Vogelsong R 2016 · 4.79 FIP	39	SP-	4.79	16.7%	10.4%	3.2%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	4.45	217	48
Fernando Rodney R 2016 · 3.43 FIP	39	SU	3.43	26.1%	12.0%	1.9%	.288	3.54	25.4%	14.2%	167	+0.11	2.69	295	42
Juan Sandoval R 2019 · 5.41 FIP	38	SU	5.41	15.9%	7.2%	5.0%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.24	225	40
Joaquín Benoit R 2016 · 3.72 FIP	39	SU	3.72	25.5%	11.3%	2.5%	.258	4.48	21.6%	11.7%	50	+0.76	3.58	164	37
Brad Ziegler R 2018 · 4.03 FIP	38	SU	4.03	16.4%	6.2%	2.8%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	2.63	257	37
Gaudencio Aguirre R 2015 · 3.25 FIP	42	SU	3.25	14.8%	8.6%	0.6%	.293	3.88	14.9%	6.8%	75	+0.63	3.25	123	35
Hector Navarro R 2017 · 3.53 FIP	37	SU	3.53	11.5%	5.6%	1.3%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	2.30	126	34
Matt Belisle R 2018 · 4.60 FIP	38	SU	4.60	15.4%	6.2%	3.7%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	2.51	174	33
Logan Duran R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	37	SP-	3.66	15.5%	8.9%	1.4%	.427	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	187	31
Jason Grilli R 2016 · 4.13 FIP	39	SU	4.13	32.3%	12.4%	4.0%	.264	5.58	26.1%	16.3%	40	+1.45	2.05	133	31
Santiago Casilla R 2018 · 4.14 FIP	38	SU	4.14	16.8%	15.2%	1.0%	.248	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	219	30
Daniel Bard R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	38	SU	4.95	20.3%	19.8%	1.9%	.224	—	—	—	—	—	2.56	200	30
Peter Moylan R 2018 · 4.77 FIP	39	SU	4.77	17.8%	11.6%	3.1%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	174	29
Darren O'Day R 2022 · 3.59 FIP	39	SU	3.59	27.7%	8.5%	3.2%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.01	215	29
Erubiel Gonzalez R 2017 · 3.51 FIP	38	SU	3.51	13.3%	2.5%	2.2%	.388	—	—	—	—	—	2.99	119	27
Tim Hudson R 2015 · 4.41 FIP	40	SP	4.41	12.2%	6.9%	2.7%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	4.41	124	25
Wandy Rodriguez L 2015 · 3.83 FIP	36	SP-	3.83	19.4%	8.5%	2.4%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	101	23
Luis Ayala R 2017 · 4.00 FIP	39	SU	4.00	15.9%	11.7%	1.4%	.340	—	—	—	—	—	3.03	119	23
Juan Antonio Pena L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	37	SP-	4.20	13.6%	9.9%	1.8%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	149	18
Yasutomo Kubo R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	38	SP	3.98	20.4%	4.7%	3.6%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	152	18

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.5	151	20.5%	9.2%	1.18	4.37
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Kutter Crawford ('24)	2.0	130	23.9%	7.2%	1.45	4.47
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Luis Garcia ('23)	1.7	113	25.5%	7.7%	1.19	3.63