Collin McHugh
P
Atlanta Braves
Age 39
RHP
6'2" / 191 lbs
MLB
peak 0.3 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 175 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123114vR 105
ERA4.19
FIP4.39
K%21.0%
BB%8.9%
K-BB%12.1%
ROS IP175
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 175 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1091.3
Whiff%
p5325.7%
K%
p1817.5%
xwOBA vs
p210.346
CT+0.6
SL-3.5
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 28 | MLB | Houston Astros | 32 | 32 | 204 | 859 | 171 | 51 | 19 | 100% | 6.4 | 19.9% | 5.9% | 14.0% | 2.1% | 3.89 | 3.32 | +5.0 |
| 2015 | 28 | MLB | Houston Astros | 32 | 32 | 204 | 859 | 171 | 51 | 19 | 100% | 6.4 | 19.9% | 5.9% | 14.0% | 2.2% | 3.89 | 3.38 | +4.8 |
| 2016 | 29 | MLB | Houston Astros | 33 | 33 | 185 | 796 | 177 | 53 | 25 | 100% | 5.6 | 22.2% | 6.7% | 15.6% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 3.69 | +3.7 |
| 2016 | 29 | MLB | Houston Astros | 33 | 33 | 185 | 796 | 177 | 53 | 25 | 100% | 5.6 | 22.2% | 6.7% | 15.6% | 3.1% | 4.34 | 3.80 | +3.4 |
| 2017 | 30 | MIX | 3 levels | 17 | 17 | 79 | 345 | 74 | 25 | 8 | 100% | 4.7 | 21.0% | 7.2% | 13.8% | 2.3% | 3.86 | 3.50 | +1.4 |
| 2017 | 30 | MIX | 3 levels | 17 | 17 | 79 | 345 | 74 | 25 | 8 | 100% | 4.7 | 21.4% | 7.2% | 14.2% | 2.3% | 3.86 | 3.49 | +1.4 |
| 2018 | 31 | MLB | Houston Astros | 58 | 0 | 72 | 283 | 94 | 21 | 6 | 0% | 1.2 | 33.2% | 7.4% | 25.8% | 2.0% | 1.99 | 2.33 | +2.1 |
| 2018 | 31 | MLB | Houston Astros | 58 | 0 | 72 | 283 | 94 | 21 | 6 | 0% | 1.2 | 33.2% | 7.4% | 25.8% | 2.1% | 1.99 | 2.45 | +2.0 |
| 2019 | 32 | MIX | 3 levels | 39 | 8 | 78 | 333 | 87 | 32 | 13 | 21% | 2.0 | 25.9% | 9.5% | 16.4% | 3.6% | 4.83 | 4.07 | +0.8 |
| 2019 | 32 | MIX | 3 levels | 39 | 8 | 78 | 333 | 87 | 32 | 13 | 21% | 2.0 | 26.1% | 9.6% | 16.5% | 3.9% | 4.83 | 4.26 | +0.6 |
| 2021 | 34 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 37 | 7 | 64 | 247 | 74 | 10 | 3 | 19% | 1.7 | 30.0% | 4.0% | 25.9% | 1.3% | 1.55 | 1.79 | +2.1 |
| 2021 | 34 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 37 | 7 | 64 | 247 | 74 | 10 | 3 | 19% | 1.7 | 30.0% | 4.0% | 25.9% | 1.2% | 1.55 | 1.87 | +2.1 |
| 2022 | 35 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 58 | 0 | 69 | 272 | 75 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 27.6% | 4.8% | 22.8% | 1.8% | 2.60 | 2.39 | +1.9 |
| 2022 | 35 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 58 | 0 | 69 | 272 | 75 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 27.6% | 4.8% | 22.8% | 1.8% | 2.60 | 2.44 | +1.9 |
| 2023 | 36 | MIX | 3 levels | 45 | 2 | 66 | 300 | 56 | 25 | 5 | 4% | 1.5 | 17.5% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 1.9% | 4.39 | 3.64 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 36 | MIX | 3 levels | 45 | 2 | 66 | 300 | 56 | 25 | 5 | 4% | 1.5 | 18.7% | 8.3% | 10.3% | 1.7% | 4.39 | 3.53 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 39 | MLB | ATL | 155 | 0 | 163 | 687 | 144 | 61 | 20 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.0% | 8.9% | 12.1% | 2.8% | 4.19 | 4.39 | +1.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 40 | MLB | ATL | 133 | 0 | 140 | 591 | 117 | 57 | 19 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.9% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 3.3% | 4.57 | 4.82 | +0.9 |
| 2027 | 40 | MLB | ATL | 133 | 0 | 140 | 591 | 117 | 57 | 19 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.9% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 3.3% | 4.57 | 4.82 | +0.9 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 439 | 93 | 931 | 3904 | 899 | 276 | 101 | 21% | 2.1 | 23.0% | 7.1% | 16.0% | 2.6% | 3.74 | 3.47 | +21.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 94 | 20 | 200 | 839 | 193 | 59 | 22 | 21% | 2.1 | 23.0% | 7.1% | 16.0% | 2.6% | 3.74 | 3.47 | +4.5 | ||
| Career | — | 319 | 99 | 817 | 3435 | 802 | 228 | 81 | 31% | 2.6 | 23.4% | 6.6% | 16.7% | 2.3% | 3.66 | 3.26 | +20.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 78 | 24 | 200 | 841 | 196 | 56 | 20 | 31% | 2.6 | 23.4% | 6.6% | 16.7% | 2.3% | 3.66 | 3.26 | +5.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Collin McHugh (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.39 | 21.0% | 8.9% | 2.8% | — | 4.82 | 19.9% | 10.3% | 140 | +0.43 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Vogelsong R 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 39 | SP- | 4.67 | 16.7% | 10.4% | 3.0% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.46 | 217 | 49 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 39 | SU | 3.44 | 26.1% | 12.0% | 1.9% | .288 | 3.51 | 25.4% | 14.2% | 167 | +0.07 | 2.67 | 295 | 42 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2025 · 5.49 FIP | 38 | SU | 5.49 | 15.9% | 7.2% | 5.1% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.17 | 225 | 39 |
| Brad Ziegler R 2025 · 3.88 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.88 | 16.4% | 6.2% | 2.5% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.61 | 257 | 38 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 39 | SU | 3.72 | 25.5% | 11.3% | 2.5% | .258 | 4.35 | 21.6% | 11.7% | 50 | +0.63 | 3.72 | 164 | 37 |
| Gaudencio Aguirre R 2029 · 3.31 FIP | 42 | SU | 3.31 | 14.8% | 8.6% | 0.7% | .293 | 3.98 | 14.9% | 6.8% | 75 | +0.67 | 3.31 | 123 | 35 |
| Hector Navarro R 2024 · 3.41 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.41 | 11.5% | 5.6% | 1.0% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 126 | 33 |
| Matt Belisle R 2025 · 4.59 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.59 | 15.4% | 6.2% | 3.7% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 174 | 33 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2025 · 4.08 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.08 | 16.8% | 15.2% | 0.9% | .248 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.51 | 219 | 31 |
| Logan Duran R 2024 · 3.58 FIP | 37 | SP- | 3.58 | 15.5% | 8.9% | 1.2% | .427 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.36 | 187 | 31 |
| Jason Grilli R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 39 | SU | 4.13 | 32.3% | 12.4% | 4.0% | .264 | 5.63 | 26.1% | 16.3% | 40 | +1.50 | 1.98 | 133 | 31 |
| Daniel Bard R 2025 · 4.81 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.81 | 20.3% | 19.8% | 1.7% | .224 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.48 | 200 | 30 |
| Peter Moylan R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 39 | SU | 4.77 | 17.8% | 11.6% | 3.1% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 174 | 29 |
| Darren O'Day R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 39 | SU | 3.59 | 27.7% | 8.5% | 3.2% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.04 | 215 | 29 |
| Erubiel Gonzalez R 2025 · 3.66 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.66 | 13.3% | 2.5% | 2.5% | .388 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 119 | 27 |
| Tim Hudson R 2027 · 4.42 FIP | 40 | SP | 4.42 | 12.2% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 124 | 25 |
| Wandy Rodriguez L 2023 · 3.84 FIP | 36 | SP- | 3.84 | 19.4% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 101 | 23 |
| Luis Ayala R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 39 | SU | 3.94 | 15.9% | 11.7% | 1.3% | .340 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.99 | 119 | 22 |
| John Lackey R 2025 · 4.88 FIP | 38 | SP | 4.88 | 20.4% | 6.8% | 4.8% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 577 | 21 |
| Juan Antonio Pena L 2024 · 4.15 FIP | 37 | SP- | 4.15 | 13.6% | 9.9% | 1.7% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 149 | 18 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 151 | 20.5% | 9.2% | 1.18 | 4.37 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |
| Jaime García ('18) | 4 | 135 | 19.6% | 8.5% | 1.05 | 4.23 |
| Edinson Volquez ('17) | 3 | 161 | 17.9% | 9.6% | 0.88 | 4.39 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez ('17) | 3 | 156 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 1.32 | 5.33 |
| Miguel González ('17) | 3 | 145 | 16.2% | 7.5% | 1.18 | 4.44 |