Pablo López
P
Minnesota Twins
Age 30
RHP
6'4" / 225 lbs
MLB
Svc 7.0 · Ctrl thru 2027
peak 2.1 · 2027
ILInjured 60-Day (D60)
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 116 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10293vR 84
ERA3.59
FIP3.59
K%25.5%
BB%5.8%
K-BB%19.7%
ROS IP117
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 116 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p5094.5
Whiff%
p5425.9%
K%
p5723.4%
xwOBA vs
p530.309
FB+7.0 (48%)
SL+5.1 (21%)
SI (7%)
CU (10%)
CH-3.2 (21%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 19 | ROK | AZL Mariners | 12 | 3 | 37 | 162 | 26 | 6 | 1 | 25% | 3.1 | 10.9% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 0.9% | 3.13 | 3.24 | — |
| 2015 | 19 | ROK | AZL Mariners | 12 | 3 | 37 | 162 | 26 | 6 | 1 | 25% | 3.1 | 16.0% | 3.7% | 12.3% | 0.6% | 3.13 | 2.54 | — |
| 2016 | 20 | A | Clinton LumberKings | 17 | 13 | 84 | 324 | 56 | 9 | 4 | 76% | 5.0 | 12.8% | 3.3% | 9.5% | 1.7% | 2.13 | 3.36 | — |
| 2016 | 20 | A | Clinton LumberKings | 17 | 13 | 84 | 324 | 56 | 9 | 4 | 76% | 5.0 | 17.3% | 2.8% | 14.5% | 1.2% | 2.13 | 2.71 | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A+ | Jupiter Hammerheads | 27 | 24 | 145 | 605 | 121 | 20 | 6 | 89% | 5.4 | 15.4% | 3.8% | 11.6% | 1.4% | 4.15 | 3.05 | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A+ | Jupiter Hammerheads | 27 | 24 | 145 | 605 | 121 | 20 | 6 | 89% | 5.4 | 20.0% | 3.3% | 16.7% | 1.0% | 4.15 | 2.38 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 22 | 22 | 121 | 500 | 112 | 25 | 14 | 100% | 5.5 | 20.1% | 5.2% | 14.9% | 3.1% | 2.75 | 3.76 | +2.3 |
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 22 | 22 | 121 | 500 | 112 | 25 | 14 | 100% | 5.5 | 22.4% | 5.0% | 17.4% | 2.8% | 2.75 | 3.37 | +2.9 |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 26 | 126 | 541 | 111 | 30 | 18 | 100% | 4.8 | 20.3% | 5.1% | 15.1% | 3.4% | 5.51 | 3.90 | +2.2 |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 26 | 126 | 541 | 111 | 30 | 18 | 100% | 4.8 | 20.5% | 5.5% | 15.0% | 3.3% | 5.51 | 3.91 | +2.2 |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 11 | 11 | 57 | 240 | 59 | 17 | 4 | 100% | 5.2 | 24.6% | 7.1% | 17.5% | 1.8% | 3.61 | 2.89 | +1.1 |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 11 | 11 | 57 | 240 | 59 | 17 | 4 | 100% | 5.2 | 24.6% | 7.1% | 17.5% | 1.7% | 3.61 | 2.84 | +1.1 |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 22 | 108 | 434 | 120 | 25 | 11 | 100% | 4.9 | 27.5% | 6.0% | 21.5% | 2.8% | 2.93 | 3.06 | +2.9 |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 22 | 108 | 434 | 120 | 25 | 11 | 100% | 4.9 | 27.6% | 5.8% | 21.9% | 2.5% | 2.93 | 2.90 | +3.2 |
| 2022 | 26 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 32 | 32 | 180 | 736 | 174 | 52 | 21 | 100% | 5.6 | 23.6% | 7.1% | 16.6% | 3.0% | 3.75 | 3.66 | +3.7 |
| 2022 | 26 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 32 | 32 | 180 | 736 | 174 | 52 | 21 | 100% | 5.6 | 23.6% | 7.1% | 16.6% | 2.9% | 3.75 | 3.55 | +3.9 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 32 | 32 | 194 | 801 | 234 | 47 | 24 | 100% | 6.1 | 29.2% | 5.9% | 23.3% | 3.0% | 3.66 | 3.00 | +5.4 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 32 | 32 | 194 | 801 | 234 | 47 | 24 | 100% | 6.1 | 29.2% | 5.9% | 23.3% | 3.0% | 3.66 | 3.02 | +5.4 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 32 | 32 | 185 | 772 | 198 | 41 | 26 | 100% | 5.8 | 25.6% | 5.3% | 20.3% | 3.3% | 4.08 | 3.44 | +4.3 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 32 | 32 | 185 | 772 | 198 | 41 | 26 | 100% | 5.8 | 25.6% | 5.3% | 20.3% | 3.4% | 4.08 | 3.45 | +4.2 |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 18 | 92 | 377 | 91 | 22 | 8 | 100% | 5.1 | 23.6% | 5.9% | 17.7% | 2.0% | 2.75 | 2.93 | +2.5 |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 18 | 92 | 377 | 91 | 22 | 8 | 100% | 5.1 | 24.1% | 5.8% | 18.3% | 2.1% | 2.75 | 2.97 | +2.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | MIN | 13 | 13 | 78 | 331 | 85 | 19 | 9 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.5% | 5.8% | 19.7% | 2.8% | 3.59 | 3.59 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | MIN | 18 | 18 | 109 | 460 | 114 | 28 | 14 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.8% | 6.1% | 18.6% | 3.0% | 3.73 | 3.82 | +2.0 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | MIN | 17 | 17 | 101 | 425 | 102 | 28 | 14 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.0% | 6.5% | 17.4% | 3.3% | 3.94 | 4.07 | +1.6 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | MIN | 15 | 15 | 92 | 390 | 90 | 27 | 14 | 100% | 6.2 | 23.1% | 7.0% | 16.1% | 3.5% | 4.19 | 4.35 | +1.0 |
| 2030 | 34 | MLB | MIN | 14 | 14 | 84 | 355 | 79 | 27 | 14 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.2% | 7.5% | 14.7% | 3.8% | 4.47 | 4.66 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 35 | MLB | MIN | 13 | 13 | 76 | 319 | 74 | 23 | 13 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.2% | 7.2% | 16.0% | 4.2% | 4.62 | 4.72 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 36 | MLB | MIN | 11 | 11 | 67 | 282 | 63 | 22 | 13 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.2% | 7.8% | 14.4% | 4.5% | 4.90 | 5.09 | -0.3 |
| 2033 | 37 | MLB | MIN | 10 | 10 | 58 | 246 | 52 | 21 | 12 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.1% | 8.5% | 12.7% | 5.0% | 5.25 | 5.49 | -0.6 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | MIN | 18 | 18 | 109 | 460 | 114 | 28 | 14 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.8% | 6.1% | 18.6% | 3.0% | 3.74 | 3.83 | +2.0 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | MIN | 17 | 17 | 101 | 426 | 102 | 28 | 14 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.0% | 6.5% | 17.4% | 3.3% | 3.95 | 4.08 | +1.6 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | MIN | 15 | 15 | 92 | 388 | 90 | 27 | 14 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.1% | 7.0% | 16.1% | 3.6% | 4.20 | 4.36 | +0.9 |
| 2030 | 34 | MLB | MIN | 14 | 14 | 84 | 355 | 79 | 26 | 14 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.2% | 7.5% | 14.7% | 3.9% | 4.48 | 4.67 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 35 | MLB | MIN | 13 | 13 | 76 | 321 | 75 | 23 | 13 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.2% | 7.2% | 16.0% | 4.2% | 4.63 | 4.73 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 36 | MLB | MIN | 11 | 11 | 67 | 283 | 63 | 22 | 13 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.2% | 7.8% | 14.4% | 4.6% | 4.91 | 5.10 | -0.3 |
| 2033 | 37 | MLB | MIN | 10 | 10 | 58 | 245 | 52 | 21 | 12 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.1% | 8.5% | 12.7% | 5.0% | 5.26 | 5.50 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 270 | 270 | 1552 | 6472 | 1568 | 414 | 209 | 100% | 5.7 | 24.2% | 6.4% | 17.8% | 3.2% | 4.02 | 3.64 | +32.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 35 | 200 | 834 | 202 | 53 | 27 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.2% | 6.4% | 17.8% | 3.2% | 4.02 | 3.64 | +4.1 | ||
| Career | — | 251 | 235 | 1330 | 5492 | 1236 | 300 | 145 | 94% | 5.3 | 22.5% | 5.5% | 17.0% | 2.6% | 3.64 | 3.34 | +32.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 38 | 35 | 200 | 826 | 186 | 45 | 22 | 94% | 5.3 | 22.5% | 5.5% | 17.0% | 2.6% | 3.64 | 3.34 | +4.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Pablo López (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.59 | 25.5% | 5.8% | 2.8% | — | 4.07 | 24.0% | 17.5% | 302 | +0.48 | — | — | — |
| Clay Buchholz R 2026 · 2.49 FIP | 30 | SP | 2.49 | 22.8% | 4.9% | 1.3% | .324 | 4.23 | 17.3% | 9.4% | 261 | +1.74 | 2.49 | 433 | 44 |
| Bryan Evans R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.97 | 21.1% | 4.4% | 3.8% | .340 | 4.79 | 18.7% | 12.6% | 103 | +0.82 | 3.72 | 231 | 44 |
| Jose Oyervides R 2029 · 2.98 FIP | 33 | SP | 2.98 | 19.1% | 6.2% | 1.3% | .333 | 4.17 | 21.9% | 14.5% | 184 | +1.19 | 2.98 | 407 | 44 |
| Jarrett Grube R 2029 · 3.49 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.49 | 18.7% | 4.2% | 2.6% | .285 | 4.58 | 17.3% | 9.6% | 253 | +1.09 | 3.49 | 393 | 43 |
| Justin Verlander R 2028 · 3.51 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.51 | 21.1% | 5.8% | 2.7% | .265 | 3.18 | 29.6% | 23.4% | 648 | -0.33 | 2.24 | 1,584 | 43 |
| Nathan Eovaldi R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.52 | 26.1% | 3.5% | 4.0% | .326 | 3.32 | 23.9% | 18.3% | 436 | -0.20 | 2.49 | 1,354 | 42 |
| Brandon Morrow R 2027 · 3.67 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.67 | 18.3% | 5.6% | 2.6% | .280 | 3.52 | 21.2% | 14.8% | 153 | -0.15 | 2.68 | 186 | 42 |
| Jose Samayoa R 2025 · 4.65 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.65 | 19.4% | 7.0% | 4.2% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 262 | 41 |
| Stephen Strasburg R 2026 · 3.33 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.33 | 28.7% | 6.6% | 3.3% | .299 | 3.14 | 29.1% | 22.3% | 231 | -0.19 | 2.42 | 811 | 41 |
| Garrett Richards R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.09 | 26.9% | 10.5% | 3.5% | .276 | 4.36 | 19.4% | 10.3% | 188 | +0.27 | 2.34 | 577 | 41 |
| Nate Karns R 2025 · 4.43 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.43 | 27.1% | 6.4% | 5.1% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 287 | 41 |
| Josh Lowey R 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.30 | 21.1% | 7.8% | 1.8% | .311 | 2.34 | 26.7% | 20.1% | 231 | -0.96 | 2.28 | 426 | 41 |
| Ricky Nolasco R 2028 · 3.21 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.21 | 20.2% | 6.9% | 1.7% | .382 | 4.52 | 17.9% | 11.7% | 379 | +1.31 | 3.21 | 425 | 40 |
| Jason Hammel R 2028 · 3.43 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.43 | 24.2% | 5.1% | 3.2% | .282 | 4.26 | 18.4% | 11.9% | 474 | +0.83 | 3.43 | 645 | 40 |
| Hector Ambriz R 2028 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.44 | 16.0% | 6.4% | 1.6% | .273 | 6.28 | 10.4% | 2.9% | 91 | +2.84 | 3.44 | 155 | 40 |
| Charlie Morton R 2027 · 3.55 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.55 | 17.9% | 6.3% | 2.1% | .302 | 3.11 | 27.7% | 18.9% | 331 | -0.44 | 2.55 | 1,534 | 40 |
| Chris Bassitt R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.10 | 23.0% | 7.7% | 3.6% | .258 | 3.32 | 23.2% | 16.9% | 402 | -0.78 | 3.02 | 1,507 | 40 |
| Mitch Atkins R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.37 | 21.4% | 8.2% | 1.9% | .341 | 4.49 | 14.3% | 6.2% | 78 | +1.12 | 3.37 | 205 | 40 |
| Rolando Valdez R 2026 · 2.98 FIP | 30 | SP | 2.98 | 14.9% | 4.1% | 1.1% | .291 | 4.16 | 12.3% | 6.0% | 156 | +1.18 | 2.98 | 258 | 40 |
| Ian Kennedy R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.46 | 24.4% | 6.7% | 4.7% | .293 | 4.91 | 21.1% | 13.0% | 469 | +0.45 | 2.87 | 864 | 39 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 8 | 83 | 23.4% | 6.9% | 1.42 | 4.25 |
| Jesse Chavez ('24) | 9 | 82 | 22.2% | 6.9% | 1.26 | 3.94 |
| Matt Andriese ('21) | 7 | 73 | 21.7% | 6.7% | 1.34 | 4.63 |
| Tyler Duffey ('22) | 8 | 59 | 23.0% | 6.8% | 1.25 | 4.57 |
| Matt Wisler ('22) | 8 | 63 | 20.1% | 7.6% | 1.40 | 4.59 |
| Daniel Norris ('22) | 8 | 70 | 21.7% | 8.5% | 1.37 | 4.70 |
| Jake McGee ('22) | 8 | 44 | 23.3% | 6.3% | 1.34 | 4.27 |