Pablo López — OGILVIE

Pablo López P Minnesota Twins

+0.7 WAR

INJURED · Injured 60-Day (D60)

Age 30 RHP 6'4" / 225 lbs MLB Svc 7.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 2.0 · 2027

ERA3.69

FIP3.70

xFIP3.87

SIERA3.87

K%25.1%

BB%6.1%

K-BB%19.0%

IP117

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.0peak

2027

K†6060

FB Velo

p5094.5

Whiff%

p5425.9%

p5723.4%

xwOBA vs

p530.309

FB+7.0 (48%)

SL+5.1 (21%)

SI (7%)

CU (10%)

CH-3.2 (21%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2015	19	ROK	AZL Mariners	12	3	37	162	26	6	1	10.9%	4.6%	0.9%	3.13	3.24	+0.7
2016	20	A	Clinton LumberKings	17	13	84	324	56	9	4	12.8%	3.3%	1.7%	2.13	3.35	+1.7
2017	21	A+	Jupiter Hammerheads	27	24	145	605	121	20	6	15.4%	3.8%	1.3%	4.15	2.99	+3.8
2018	22	MLB	Miami Marlins	22	22	121	500	112	25	14	20.1%	5.2%	3.2%	2.75	3.80	+2.1
2019	23	MLB	Miami Marlins	26	26	126	541	111	30	18	20.3%	5.1%	3.2%	5.51	3.77	+2.2
2020	24	MLB	Miami Marlins	11	11	57	240	59	17	4	24.6%	7.1%	1.9%	3.61	2.94	+1.3
2021	25	MLB	Miami Marlins	22	22	108	434	120	25	11	27.5%	6.0%	2.8%	2.93	3.09	+2.7
2022	26	MLB	Miami Marlins	32	32	180	736	174	52	21	23.6%	7.1%	2.9%	3.75	3.59	+3.5
2023	27	MLB	Minnesota Twins	32	32	194	801	234	47	24	29.2%	5.9%	3.3%	3.66	3.17	+4.7
2024	28	MLB	Minnesota Twins	32	32	185	772	198	41	26	25.6%	5.3%	3.4%	4.08	3.49	+3.8
2025	29	MLB	Minnesota Twins	18	18	92	377	91	22	8	23.6%	5.9%	2.0%	2.75	2.95	+2.4
▸ 2026 Season
2026	30	MLB	MIA	35	—	35	148	38	9	4	25.7%	6.1%	2.9%	3.61	3.65	+0.5
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	31	MLB	MIA	20	20	113	476	119	30	14	25.1%	6.2%	2.9%	3.70	3.76	+2.0
2028	32	MLB	MIA	20	20	108	457	112	29	14	24.5%	6.4%	3.0%	3.80	3.87	+1.8
2029	33	MLB	MIA	19	19	103	436	104	29	14	23.8%	6.6%	3.1%	3.92	4.00	+1.5
2030	34	MLB	MIA	18	18	98	414	96	28	13	23.1%	6.8%	3.2%	4.05	4.14	+1.3
2031	35	MLB	MIA	17	17	92	391	87	27	13	22.4%	7.0%	3.3%	4.20	4.29	+1.0
2032	36	MLB	MIA	16	16	86	365	79	26	13	21.6%	7.2%	3.4%	4.35	4.46	+0.7
2033	37	MLB	MIA	15	15	80	339	70	25	12	20.8%	7.5%	3.6%	4.52	4.63	+0.5
2034	38	MLB	MIA	13	13	74	312	68	22	12	21.9%	7.0%	3.7%	4.54	4.55	+0.4
2035	39	MLB	MIA	12	12	68	287	60	21	11	21.1%	7.3%	3.8%	4.66	4.73	+0.2
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			251	235	1330	5492	1236	300	146	22.5%	5.5%	2.7%	3.64	3.35	+29.4
/ 200 IP	—			38	35	200	826	186	45	22	22.5%	5.5%	2.7%	3.64	3.35	+4.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Pablo López (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.65	25.7%	6.1%	2.9%	—	3.87	24.5%	18.1%	324	+0.22	—	—	—
Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 2.93 FIP	30	SU	2.93	27.1%	6.6%	2.3%	.292	4.62	22.6%	14.0%	137	+1.69	2.93	176	50
Jumbo Diaz R 2027 · 3.21 FIP	31	SW	3.21	25.2%	6.0%	2.7%	.286	3.66	21.9%	12.2%	152	+0.45	2.80	284	49
Junichi Tazawa R 2026 · 4.05 FIP	30	SU	4.05	26.0%	6.2%	4.3%	.288	4.70	17.7%	9.1%	118	+0.65	2.99	227	49
Joakim Soria R 2027 · 3.48 FIP	31	SW	3.48	23.5%	6.6%	2.8%	.258	2.91	26.6%	18.9%	183	-0.57	2.00	380	49
Jonathan Broxton R 2027 · 3.73 FIP	31	SW	3.73	24.5%	8.2%	3.0%	.325	3.80	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.07	3.65	137	49
Ross Ohlendorf R 2028 · 3.33 FIP	32	SW	3.33	23.7%	7.2%	2.4%	.342	4.98	23.4%	12.7%	66	+1.65	3.33	122	49
Matt Bush R 2026 · 2.88 FIP	30	SW	2.88	24.7%	6.0%	2.0%	.232	3.96	22.2%	12.7%	75	+1.08	2.88	249	48
Brad Brach R 2026 · 2.80 FIP	30	SW	2.80	29.6%	7.7%	2.2%	.266	3.43	23.7%	13.8%	185	+0.63	2.80	410	48
Josh Fields R 2026 · 2.48 FIP	30	SW	2.48	26.2%	5.9%	1.5%	.341	4.62	23.5%	16.5%	123	+2.14	1.85	238	48
Chad Gaudin R 2029 · 2.66 FIP	33	SU	2.66	22.8%	6.8%	1.1%	.325	3.16	21.8%	13.9%	58	+0.50	2.02	102	47
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2027 · 3.38 FIP	31	SW	3.38	26.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.241	3.98	23.3%	13.2%	105	+0.60	3.38	212	47
David Hernandez R 2026 · 4.62 FIP	30	SU	4.62	22.9%	7.6%	4.5%	.287	3.18	24.9%	18.4%	192	-1.44	2.56	268	47
Pedro Strop R 2026 · 2.58 FIP	30	SW	2.58	30.0%	8.5%	1.7%	.211	2.91	26.9%	18.5%	167	+0.33	2.58	277	46
Shane Greene R 2026 · 3.41 FIP	30	SW	3.41	25.4%	6.3%	3.0%	.232	4.14	20.5%	9.9%	86	+0.73	2.84	484	46
Carlos Torres R 2028 · 3.19 FIP	32	SW	3.19	19.8%	4.9%	2.1%	.315	3.68	20.8%	12.4%	206	+0.49	2.89	326	46
Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.17 FIP	30	SU	3.17	22.8%	6.1%	2.2%	.279	3.79	21.2%	11.5%	181	+0.62	3.17	272	46
Kaleb Fleck R 2025 · 3.50 FIP	29	SU	3.50	24.6%	5.9%	3.1%	.346	—	—	—	—	—	2.68	177	46
Ryan Tepera R 2026 · 3.84 FIP	30	SW	3.84	25.9%	8.7%	3.3%	.282	3.13	28.4%	19.9%	104	-0.71	2.27	445	46
Miguel Socolovich R 2026 · 2.75 FIP	30	SW	2.75	24.4%	6.7%	1.6%	.238	3.87	18.4%	13.3%	151	+1.12	2.65	283	46
James Hoyt R 2026 · 3.15 FIP	30	SW	3.15	30.4%	7.5%	3.0%	.338	3.30	24.7%	15.1%	87	+0.15	1.61	312	46

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2018

Service 7.541 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Ext / FA-deal	$18M	+0.7	$3M	-$16M
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$18M	+2.0	$16M	-$2M
Totals		$37M		$19M	-$17M