Pablo López — OGILVIE

Pablo López P Minnesota Twins

Age 30 RHP 6'4" / 225 lbs MLB Svc 7.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 2.4 · 2026 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10294vR 86

ERA3.60

FIP3.60

K%25.4%

BB%5.8%

K-BB%19.7%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 2 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$8M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5050

CTRL6060

CMD5555

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5094.5

Whiff%

p5425.9%

p5723.4%

xwOBA vs

p530.309

FB+7.0 (48%)

SL+5.1 (21%)

SI (7%)

CU (10%)

CH-3.2 (21%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2018

Service 7.541 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$1M	+0.1	$0.5M	-$1.0M
2027	Ext	$18M	+1.4	$10M	-$6M
Totals		$20M		$11M	-$7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	19	ROK MLE	AZL Mariners	12	3	37	162	26	6	1	25%	3.1	10.9%	4.6%	6.3%	0.9%	3.13	3.24	—
2015	19	ROK RAW	AZL Mariners	12	3	37	162	26	6	1	25%	3.1	16.0%	3.7%	12.3%	0.6%	3.13	2.54	—
2016	20	A MLE	Clinton LumberKings	17	13	84	324	56	9	4	76%	5.0	12.8%	3.3%	9.5%	1.6%	2.13	3.34	—
2016	20	A RAW	Clinton LumberKings	17	13	84	324	56	9	4	76%	5.0	17.3%	2.8%	14.5%	1.2%	2.13	2.71	—
2017	21	A+ MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	27	24	145	605	121	20	6	89%	5.4	15.4%	3.8%	11.6%	1.3%	4.15	3.00	—
2017	21	A+ RAW	Jupiter Hammerheads	27	24	145	605	121	20	6	89%	5.4	20.0%	3.3%	16.7%	1.0%	4.15	2.38	—
2018	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	22	121	500	112	25	14	100%	5.5	20.1%	5.2%	14.9%	3.1%	2.75	3.75	+1.7
2018	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	22	121	500	112	25	14	100%	5.5	22.4%	5.0%	17.4%	2.8%	2.75	3.37	+2.3
2019	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	26	126	541	111	30	18	100%	4.8	20.3%	5.1%	15.1%	3.4%	5.51	3.89	+1.5
2019	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	26	126	541	111	30	18	100%	4.8	20.5%	5.5%	15.0%	3.3%	5.51	3.91	+1.5
2020	24	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	11	11	57	240	59	17	4	100%	5.2	24.6%	7.1%	17.5%	1.8%	3.61	2.88	+1.5
2020	24	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	11	11	57	240	59	17	4	100%	5.2	24.6%	7.1%	17.5%	1.7%	3.61	2.84	+1.5
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	108	434	120	25	11	100%	4.9	27.5%	6.0%	21.5%	2.8%	2.93	3.05	+2.5
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	108	434	120	25	11	100%	4.9	27.6%	5.8%	21.9%	2.5%	2.93	2.90	+2.7
2022	26	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	32	32	180	736	174	52	21	100%	5.6	23.6%	7.1%	16.6%	3.0%	3.75	3.65	+2.7
2022	26	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	32	32	180	736	174	52	21	100%	5.6	23.6%	7.1%	16.6%	2.9%	3.75	3.55	+3.0
2023	27	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	32	32	194	801	234	47	24	100%	6.1	29.2%	5.9%	23.3%	3.0%	3.66	3.01	+4.6
2023	27	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	32	32	194	801	234	47	24	100%	6.1	29.2%	5.9%	23.3%	3.0%	3.66	3.01	+4.6
2023	27	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	32	32	194	801	234	47	24	100%	6.1	29.2%	5.9%	23.3%	3.0%	3.66	3.02	+4.6
2024	28	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	32	32	185	772	198	41	26	100%	5.8	25.6%	5.3%	20.3%	3.4%	4.08	3.45	+3.3
2024	28	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	32	32	185	772	198	41	26	100%	5.8	25.6%	5.3%	20.3%	3.4%	4.08	3.45	+3.3
2024	28	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	32	32	185	772	198	41	26	100%	5.8	25.6%	5.3%	20.3%	3.4%	4.08	3.45	+3.3
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	18	92	377	91	22	8	100%	5.1	23.3%	5.8%	17.5%	2.0%	2.75	2.99	+2.2
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	18	92	377	91	22	8	100%	5.1	23.3%	5.8%	17.5%	2.0%	2.75	2.99	+2.2
2025	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	18	92	377	91	22	8	100%	5.1	24.1%	5.8%	18.3%	2.1%	2.75	2.97	+2.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			172	172	965	3995	994	239	115	100%	5.6	24.9%	6.0%	18.9%	2.9%	3.81	3.33	+18.7
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	30	MLB	MIN	1	1	2	8	2	0	0	100%	2.0	25.4%	5.8%	19.7%	2.8%	3.60	3.60	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	MIN	18	18	109	460	114	28	14	100%	6.1	24.7%	6.1%	18.6%	3.0%	3.74	3.83	+1.4
2028	32	MLB MLE	MIN	17	17	101	425	102	28	14	100%	5.9	23.9%	6.5%	17.4%	3.3%	3.95	4.09	+1.0
2029	33	MLB MLE	MIN	15	15	92	390	90	27	14	100%	6.2	23.1%	7.0%	16.1%	3.6%	4.20	4.37	+0.6
2030	34	MLB MLE	MIN	14	14	84	355	79	26	14	100%	6.0	22.1%	7.4%	14.7%	3.9%	4.48	4.67	+0.2
2027	31	MLB CTX	MIN	18	18	109	460	114	28	14	100%	6.1	24.7%	6.1%	18.6%	3.1%	3.75	3.84	+1.4
2028	32	MLB CTX	MIN	17	17	101	426	102	28	14	100%	5.9	23.9%	6.5%	17.4%	3.3%	3.96	4.10	+1.0
2029	33	MLB CTX	MIN	15	15	92	388	90	27	14	100%	6.1	23.1%	7.0%	16.1%	3.6%	4.21	4.38	+0.6
2030	34	MLB CTX	MIN	14	14	84	355	79	26	14	100%	6.0	22.1%	7.4%	14.7%	3.9%	4.49	4.68	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		236	236	1351	5625	1378	348	171	100%	5.7	24.5%	6.2%	18.3%	3.0%	3.89	3.48	+23.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	833	204	52	25	100%	5.7	24.5%	6.2%	18.3%	3.0%	3.89	3.48	+3.5
Career	—	MLE		251	235	1330	5492	1235	300	144	94%	5.3	22.5%	5.5%	17.0%	2.6%	3.64	3.33	+21.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		38	35	200	826	186	45	22	94%	5.3	22.5%	5.5%	17.0%	2.6%	3.64	3.33	+3.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Pablo López (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.60	25.4%	5.8%	2.8%	—	4.08	23.9%	17.4%	302	+0.48	—	—	—
Stephen Strasburg R 2018 · 3.33 FIP	30	SP	3.33	28.7%	6.6%	3.3%	.299	3.14	29.1%	22.3%	231	-0.19	2.42	811	66
Garrett Richards R 2018 · 3.99 FIP	30	SP	3.99	26.9%	10.5%	3.3%	.276	4.36	19.4%	10.3%	188	+0.37	2.31	577	61
Zack Wheeler R 2020 · 2.69 FIP	30	SP	2.69	18.4%	4.9%	1.0%	.294	2.53	27.7%	22.5%	558	-0.16	2.28	1,586	60
Nate Karns R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	29	SP	4.46	27.1%	6.4%	5.2%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	3.88	287	59
Sonny Gray R 2020 · 2.78 FIP	30	SP	2.78	30.6%	11.1%	1.6%	.286	3.06	25.1%	17.4%	439	+0.28	2.55	1,792	56
Nathan Eovaldi R 2020 · 3.60 FIP	30	SP	3.60	26.1%	3.5%	4.1%	.326	3.34	23.9%	18.3%	436	-0.26	2.44	1,378	56
Collin McHugh R 2017 · 3.60 FIP	30	SP	3.60	21.0%	7.2%	2.5%	.309	3.35	29.5%	21.0%	147	-0.25	1.77	806	55
Michael Pineda R 2019 · 3.79 FIP	30	SP	3.79	23.3%	4.5%	3.8%	.288	4.20	18.0%	13.4%	208	+0.41	2.00	786	54
Tyler Chatwood R 2020 · 3.30 FIP	30	SP	3.30	29.1%	10.5%	2.4%	.400	3.54	26.2%	11.7%	32	+0.24	3.30	537	51
Shohei Ohtani R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	29	SP	3.58	31.5%	10.4%	3.3%	.230	2.13	29.7%	23.1%	133	-1.45	1.76	613	50
Masahiro Tanaka R 2019 · 4.01 FIP	30	SP	4.01	19.6%	5.3%	3.5%	.292	4.08	22.3%	18.2%	48	+0.07	3.34	918	49
Trevor Cahill R 2018 · 3.37 FIP	30	SP	3.37	22.7%	9.8%	1.7%	.268	5.01	19.9%	10.6%	164	+1.64	3.37	556	49
Rick Porcello R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	30	SP	4.51	18.6%	5.6%	4.1%	.303	3.13	20.7%	15.0%	59	-1.38	3.13	1,023	48
Kyle Hendricks R 2020 · 3.48 FIP	30	SP	3.48	20.3%	2.2%	3.3%	.269	4.28	17.0%	11.6%	423	+0.80	3.02	1,685	47
Tanner Roark R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	30	SP	3.88	21.4%	7.6%	3.0%	.294	4.48	20.3%	13.2%	393	+0.60	3.13	942	47
Miles Mikolas R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	30	SP	4.11	18.8%	4.1%	3.8%	.295	4.02	18.4%	13.4%	266	-0.09	3.13	1,296	46
Chris Bassitt R 2019 · 4.20 FIP	30	SP	4.20	23.0%	7.7%	3.8%	.258	3.35	23.2%	16.9%	402	-0.85	3.02	1,554	46
Kenta Maeda R 2018 · 2.89 FIP	30	SP-	2.89	28.8%	7.3%	2.3%	.312	3.55	27.4%	20.7%	327	+0.66	2.87	1,092	45
Marcus Stroman R 2021 · 3.28 FIP	30	SP	3.28	21.6%	5.8%	2.3%	.281	3.82	19.3%	11.2%	430	+0.54	3.28	1,367	45
Andrew Triggs R 2018 · 4.68 FIP	29	SP	4.68	23.6%	9.9%	4.2%	.263	—	—	—	—	—	1.66	242	44

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	99	24.0%	6.5%	1.27	3.96
Braxton Garrett ('24)	1.6	80	23.1%	5.7%	1.04	3.98
Luis Garcia ('23)	1.7	113	25.5%	7.7%	1.19	3.63
Tyler Skaggs ('19)	1.7	85	22.9%	8.2%	1.09	4.24
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01
Hyun Jin Ryu ('23)	3.5	101	22.0%	5.4%	1.17	3.27
Zach Plesac ('23)	2.3	93	18.4%	6.3%	1.39	4.20