Kevin Herget

P Syracuse Mets

Age 36 RHP 5'10" / 185 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	33	MIX2 levels	45	0	59	2.14	2.17	30.2%	6.2%	1.7	K 27.9% · BB 5.4% · FIP 2.16
2025	34	MIX2 levels	43	3	60	3.02	4.02	22.5%	6.6%	0.4	K 19.7% · BB 6.1% · FIP 4.12
2026	35	MIX5 levels	20	8	34	2.88	3.42	17.6%	2.1%	0.5	K 17.2% · BB 1.1% · FIP 4.62
2027PROJ	36	MLBNYM	37	0	39	4.37	4.36	17.1%	4.7%	0.1
2028PROJ70% MLB	37	MLBNYM	22	0	23	4.60	4.76	16.7%	5.8%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.5 · Next 2 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

xwOBA vs39

FB Velo16

K%10

CompsChris Nichting (age 36) · Rudy Gonzalez (age 36) · Keiichi Yabu (age 36)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.37

FIP4.36

K%17.1%

BB%4.7%

K-BB%12.4%

Proj IP49

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 49 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1692.1

Whiff%

p1012.5%

p1010.7%

xwOBA vs

p390.324

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	75	305	74	17	2	0%	1.8	20.6%	6.5%	14.1%	0.0%	2.64	2.19	—
2015	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	0	75	305	74	17	2	0%	1.8	24.3%	5.6%	18.7%	0.7%	2.64	2.15	—
2016	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	49	0	62	249	61	10	1	0%	1.3	19.7%	4.1%	15.6%	0.4%	2.02	2.19	—
2016	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	49	0	62	249	61	10	1	0%	1.3	24.5%	4.0%	20.5%	0.4%	2.02	1.83	—
2017	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	9	82	344	81	23	8	26%	2.3	20.3%	7.0%	13.2%	2.5%	3.97	3.68	—
2017	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	9	82	344	81	23	8	26%	2.3	23.5%	6.7%	16.9%	2.3%	3.97	3.23	—
2018	27	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	28	22	139	587	121	32	21	79%	5.0	18.1%	5.7%	12.4%	4.3%	4.61	4.67	—
2018	27	AAA RAW	Memphis Redbirds	28	22	139	587	121	32	21	79%	5.0	20.6%	5.5%	15.2%	3.6%	4.61	4.02	—
2019	28	ROK MLE	GCL Cardinals	2	1	3	12	4	0	1	50%	1.5	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	8.3%	6.00	4.86	—
2019	28	ROK RAW	GCL Cardinals	2	1	3	12	4	0	1	50%	1.5	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	8.3%	6.00	4.77	—
2021	30	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	28	7	80	345	85	21	18	25%	2.9	21.7%	6.4%	15.3%	5.5%	4.48	5.12	—
2021	30	AAA RAW	Columbus Clippers	28	7	80	345	85	21	18	25%	2.9	24.6%	6.1%	18.6%	5.2%	4.48	4.68	—
2022	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	17	105	436	103	17	13	71%	4.4	21.5%	4.4%	17.1%	3.4%	3.27	3.72	+2.1
2022	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	17	105	436	103	17	13	71%	4.4	23.6%	3.9%	19.7%	3.0%	3.27	3.23	+2.8
2023	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	5	72	316	61	26	12	10%	1.5	17.2%	7.6%	9.6%	3.8%	5.15	4.70	-0.1
2023	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	5	72	316	61	26	12	10%	1.5	19.3%	8.2%	11.1%	3.8%	5.15	4.66	-0.1
2024	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	59	225	68	14	3	0%	1.3	27.9%	5.4%	22.4%	1.3%	2.14	2.16	+1.7
2024	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	59	225	68	14	3	0%	1.3	27.9%	5.4%	22.4%	1.3%	2.14	2.16	+1.7
2024	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	59	225	68	14	3	0%	1.3	30.2%	6.2%	24.0%	1.3%	2.14	2.17	+1.7
2025	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	3	60	244	55	16	9	7%	1.4	19.7%	6.1%	13.6%	3.5%	3.02	4.12	+0.3
2025	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	3	60	244	55	16	9	7%	1.4	19.7%	6.1%	13.6%	3.5%	3.02	4.12	+0.3
2025	34	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	3	60	244	55	16	9	7%	1.4	22.5%	6.6%	16.0%	3.7%	3.02	4.02	+0.4
2026	35	MIX MLE	5 levels	20	8	34	142	25	3	4	40%	1.7	17.2%	1.1%	16.1%	5.2%	2.88	4.62	-0.0
2026	35	MIX MLE	5 levels	20	8	34	142	25	3	4	40%	1.7	17.2%	1.1%	16.1%	5.2%	2.88	4.62	-0.0
2026	35	MIX RAW	5 levels	20	8	34	142	25	3	4	40%	1.7	17.6%	2.1%	15.5%	2.8%	2.88	3.42	+0.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			32	0	57	237	32	13	5	0%	1.8	13.5%	5.5%	8.0%	2.1%	4.13	3.81	+0.5
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	36	MLB	NYM	37	0	39	165	28	8	5	0%	1.1	17.1%	4.7%	12.4%	3.2%	4.37	4.36	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	37	MLB MLE	NYM	32	0	33	140	23	8	5	0%	1.0	16.7%	5.8%	10.8%	3.5%	4.60	4.76	-0.1
2028	37	MLB CTX	NYM	22	0	23	97	16	6	3	0%	1.0	16.7%	5.8%	10.8%	3.5%	4.60	4.76	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		54	0	80	335	48	19	8	0%	1.5	14.4%	5.6%	8.8%	2.5%	4.27	3.98	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		135	0	200	839	120	48	20	0%	1.5	14.4%	5.6%	8.8%	2.5%	4.27	3.98	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		364	72	770	3205	650	182	101	20%	2.1	20.3%	5.7%	14.6%	3.2%	3.61	3.84	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		95	19	200	832	169	47	26	20%	2.1	20.3%	5.7%	14.6%	3.2%	3.61	3.84	+0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASyracuse Mets · 21 IPFIP 4.14 → 4.62 (+0.48)K% 20.0% → 17.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.00%	—	×0.860	17.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	1.18%	—	×0.900	1.06%
HR / BF /BF	4.71%	÷1.000	×1.100	5.18%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.14 → 4.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Brooklyn Cyclones · 6 IPFIP 2.59 → 2.90 (+0.31)K% 12.0% → 9.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	12.00%	—	×0.770	9.24%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.00%	—	×1.150	4.60%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.59 → 2.90, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKFCL Mets · 5 IPFIP 2.52 → 3.04 (+0.51)K% 13.6% → 9.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	13.64%	—	×0.680	9.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.55%	—	×1.250	5.68%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.52 → 3.04, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASyracuse Mets · 47 IPFIP 4.27 → 4.35 (+0.08)K% 26.1% → 22.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.06%	—	×0.860	22.41%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.85%	—	×0.900	5.27%
HR / BF /BF	4.79%	÷1.167	×1.100	4.51%

Result: FIP 4.27 → 4.35, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAANashville Sounds · 48 IPFIP 1.73 → 2.16 (+0.43)K% 32.4% → 27.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.42%	—	×0.860	27.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.04%	—	×0.900	5.44%
HR / BF /BF	1.10%	÷0.909	×1.100	1.33%

Result: FIP 1.73 → 2.16, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAALouisville Bats · 47 IPFIP 4.52 → 4.76 (+0.23)K% 22.7% → 19.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.75%	—	×0.860	19.56%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.95%	—	×0.900	8.96%
HR / BF /BF	3.79%	÷1.054	×1.100	3.96%

Result: FIP 4.52 → 4.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAADurham Bulls · 98 IPFIP 3.33 → 3.72 (+0.39)K% 24.4% → 21.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.38%	—	×0.880	21.46%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.19%	—	×1.050	4.40%
HR / BF /BF	3.20%	÷1.034	×1.100	3.41%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 107).

Result: FIP 3.33 → 3.72, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAColumbus Clippers · 80 IPFIP 4.65 → 5.12 (+0.47)K% 24.6% → 21.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.64%	—	×0.880	21.68%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.09%	—	×1.050	6.39%
HR / BF /BF	5.22%	÷1.034	×1.100	5.55%

Result: FIP 4.65 → 5.12, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kevin Herget (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.2%	—	4.76	16.7%	10.8%	33	+0.40	—	—	—
Chris Nichting R 2002 · 4.67 FIP	36	SU	4.67	16.6%	3.3%	4.6%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	103	71
Rudy Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	36	SU	4.72	15.8%	7.1%	3.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	119	67
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	67
Salvador Valdez R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	36	SW	4.30	17.1%	8.2%	2.9%	.405	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	326	65
Juan Sandoval R 2017 · 3.42 FIP	36	SU	3.42	16.7%	7.2%	1.5%	.298	5.41	15.9%	8.7%	57	+1.99	3.24	225	65
Brian Sweeney R 2010 · 4.63 FIP	36	SU	4.63	9.5%	3.4%	3.5%	.226	—	—	—	—	—	3.03	108	65
Rafael Martín R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	35	SU	4.71	22.5%	6.0%	5.0%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	227	63
Erubiel Gonzalez R 2015 · 3.43 FIP	36	SU	3.43	12.4%	6.0%	1.1%	.328	3.26	14.8%	10.4%	69	-0.17	2.99	119	62
Tony Pena Jr. R 2017 · 3.43 FIP	36	SU	3.43	10.9%	4.3%	1.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	128	60
Jesus Adrian Castillo R 2019 · 5.13 FIP	35	SU	5.13	13.1%	7.8%	3.9%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	2.23	173	59
Kazuhiro Sasaki R 2003 · 3.30 FIP	35	SU	3.30	19.3%	8.7%	1.3%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	2.76	223	57
Matt Miller R 2006 · 4.98 FIP	34	SU	4.98	18.5%	13.8%	3.1%	.214	—	—	—	—	—	2.13	101	54
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	34	SU	4.02	18.1%	11.3%	1.9%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	54
Jim Miller R 2016 · 5.43 FIP	34	SU	5.43	20.4%	14.1%	4.1%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.95	140	52
Leo Rosales R 2017 · 4.24 FIP	36	SU	4.24	7.8%	8.2%	1.4%	.203	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	130	52
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	3.93	194	52
Jay Jackson R 2024 · 5.31 FIP	36	SU	5.31	25.4%	7.9%	6.1%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	261	52
Joe Nelson R 2009 · 5.35 FIP	34	SU	5.35	19.8%	14.3%	3.9%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	139	51
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	51
Logan Duran R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	37	SP-	3.66	15.5%	8.9%	1.4%	.427	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	187	49

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	46	15.6%	5.5%	1.10	4.33
Rusty Meacham ('01)	1.7	49	13.3%	6.2%	1.02	4.43
Larry Casian ('90-'98, 0 WAR*)	1.2	40	14.7%*	6.8%*	1.25*	4.37*
Will McEnaney ('74-'79, 1 WAR*)	1.7	70	14.4%*	6.1%*	1.02*	4.35*
Cristhian Martinez ('13)	1.0	52	19.1%	6.1%	0.83	4.02
Scott Atchison ('15)	1.7	50	17.7%	6.2%	0.91	3.63
Dale Mohorcic ('86-'90, 3 WAR*)	1.8	73	14.9%*	6.3%*	1.09*	3.58*