Kevin Herget
P
Syracuse Mets
+0.4
WAR
Age 35
RHP
5'10" / 185 lbs
AAA
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.28
FIP4.23
xFIP5.98
SIERA5.70
K%21.7%
BB%7.7%
K-BB%14.0%
IP50
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
K†4545
FB Velo
p1692.1
Whiff%
p1012.5%
K%
p1010.7%
xwOBA vs
p390.324
CH+1.0 (37%)
FB+0.7 (44%)
CT (18%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 24 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 42 | 0 | 75 | 305 | 74 | 17 | 2 | 20.6% | 6.5% | 0.0% | 2.64 | 2.19 | +2.5 |
| 2016 | 25 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 49 | 0 | 62 | 249 | 61 | 10 | 1 | 19.7% | 4.1% | 0.4% | 2.02 | 2.20 | +2.0 |
| 2017 | 26 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 35 | 9 | 82 | 344 | 81 | 23 | 8 | 20.3% | 7.0% | 2.6% | 3.97 | 3.69 | +1.3 |
| 2018 | 27 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 28 | 22 | 139 | 587 | 121 | 32 | 21 | 18.1% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 4.61 | 4.69 | +1.0 |
| 2019 | 28 | ROK | GCL Cardinals | 2 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 1 | — | — | — | 6.00 | — | — |
| 2021 | 30 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | 28 | 7 | 80 | 345 | 85 | 21 | 18 | 21.7% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 4.48 | 5.14 | -0.0 |
| 2022 | 31 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 24 | 17 | 105 | 436 | 103 | 17 | 13 | 21.5% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 3.27 | 3.73 | +1.9 |
| 2023 | 32 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 48 | 5 | 72 | 316 | 61 | 26 | 12 | 17.5% | 8.6% | 3.8% | 5.15 | 4.79 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 33 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 45 | 0 | 59 | 225 | 68 | 14 | 3 | 28.5% | 6.3% | 1.3% | 2.14 | 2.20 | +1.8 |
| 2025 | 34 | MLB | New York Mets | 43 | 3 | 60 | 244 | 55 | 16 | 9 | 20.1% | 6.8% | 3.5% | 3.02 | 4.21 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 35 | MLB | STL | 50 | — | 50 | 210 | 41 | 16 | 6 | 19.5% | 7.7% | 2.9% | 4.37 | 4.41 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | STL | 47 | — | 47 | 197 | 38 | 16 | 6 | 19.1% | 8.1% | 3.1% | 4.49 | 4.57 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 37 | MLB | STL | 43 | — | 43 | 182 | 34 | 15 | 6 | 18.6% | 8.5% | 3.2% | 4.62 | 4.72 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 344 | 64 | 736 | 3063 | 629 | 187 | 94 | 20.5% | 6.1% | 3.1% | 3.64 | 3.83 | +12.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 93 | 17 | 200 | 832 | 171 | 51 | 26 | 20.5% | 6.1% | 3.1% | 3.64 | 3.83 | +3.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kevin Herget (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.41 | 19.5% | 7.7% | 2.9% | — | 4.64 | 18.9% | 10.6% | 90 | +0.23 | — | — | — |
| Josh Lueke R 2025 · 4.14 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.14 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 3.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.32 | 107 | 82 |
| Hector Navarro R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.37 | 15.0% | 5.4% | 3.4% | .281 | 2.96 | 15.2% | 9.0% | 81 | -1.41 | 2.30 | 126 | 81 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2025 · 4.09 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.09 | 15.0% | 6.4% | 2.6% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 132 | 80 |
| Peter Moylan R 2027 · 3.11 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.11 | 18.4% | 8.2% | 0.9% | .259 | 3.86 | 18.2% | 9.1% | 145 | +0.75 | 3.11 | 174 | 78 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.11 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 3.2% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.11 | 186 | 77 |
| Wade Davis R 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.06 | 20.0% | 10.0% | 4.3% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.00 | 320 | 77 |
| Casey Fien R 2024 · 4.87 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.87 | 15.8% | 4.0% | 4.7% | .330 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 136 | 76 |
| Mark Serrano R 2024 · 5.25 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.25 | 20.2% | 7.9% | 5.2% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 120 | 76 |
| Ramon E Ramirez R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.50 | 14.0% | 5.8% | 1.6% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.37 | 140 | 76 |
| Jim Johnson R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.52 | 16.8% | 7.8% | 3.4% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.57 | 251 | 76 |
| Matt Belisle R 2026 · 3.20 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.20 | 16.8% | 8.7% | 0.8% | .300 | 3.38 | 18.8% | 13.8% | 141 | +0.18 | 2.49 | 174 | 76 |
| Manny Acosta R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.09 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.07 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -1.02 | 3.07 | 102 | 76 |
| Brian Schlitter R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.71 | 14.9% | 9.1% | 3.1% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.31 | 244 | 75 |
| Ryan Madson R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.98 | 18.1% | 6.3% | 2.9% | .284 | 2.39 | 27.2% | 22.6% | 112 | -1.59 | 1.43 | 240 | 75 |
| Mark Lowe R 2025 · 5.01 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.01 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 3.7% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 153 | 74 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2029 · 4.17 FIP | 38 | SW | 4.17 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.0% | .272 | 3.38 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.79 | 2.67 | 295 | 73 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.50 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .290 | 3.90 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.40 | 3.50 | 219 | 72 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.45 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 3.9% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 208 | 71 |
| Rafael Martín R 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.70 | 22.5% | 6.0% | 5.0% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.89 | 227 | 71 |
| Jesse Chavez R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.04 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 3.5% | .303 | 3.25 | 25.5% | 17.9% | 140 | -0.79 | 2.03 | 804 | 70 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.