Kevin Herget
P
Syracuse Mets
Age 35
RHP
5'10" / 185 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION34 proj IP · Marcel + aging
ERA4.39
FIP4.44
xFIP5.98
SIERA5.70
K%18.6%
BB%7.7%
K-BB%10.9%
IP35
K†4545
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
FB Velo
p1692.1
Whiff%
p1012.5%
K%
p1010.7%
xwOBA vs
p390.324
CH+1.0 (37%)
FB+0.7 (44%)
CT (18%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.4 (SP) / 4.55 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 24 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 42 | 0 | 75 | 305 | 74 | 17 | 2 | 20.6% | 6.5% | 0.0% | 2.64 | 2.19 | +2.4 |
| 2016 | 25 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 49 | 0 | 62 | 249 | 61 | 10 | 1 | 19.7% | 4.1% | 0.4% | 2.02 | 2.17 | +1.8 |
| 2017 | 26 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 35 | 9 | 82 | 344 | 81 | 23 | 8 | 20.3% | 7.0% | 2.5% | 3.97 | 3.68 | +1.3 |
| 2018 | 27 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 28 | 22 | 139 | 587 | 121 | 32 | 21 | 18.1% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 4.61 | 4.93 | +0.8 |
| 2019 | 28 | ROK | GCL Cardinals | 2 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 8.3% | 6.00 | 4.86 | -0.0 |
| 2021 | 30 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | 28 | 7 | 80 | 345 | 85 | 21 | 18 | 21.7% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 4.48 | 5.03 | -0.0 |
| 2022 | 31 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 24 | 17 | 105 | 436 | 103 | 17 | 13 | 21.5% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 3.27 | 3.66 | +2.1 |
| 2023 | 32 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 48 | 5 | 72 | 316 | 61 | 26 | 12 | 17.5% | 8.6% | 3.7% | 5.15 | 4.75 | +0.0 |
| 2024 | 33 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 45 | 0 | 59 | 225 | 68 | 14 | 3 | 28.5% | 6.3% | 1.5% | 2.14 | 2.31 | +1.5 |
| 2025 | 34 | MLB | New York Mets | 43 | 3 | 60 | 244 | 55 | 16 | 9 | 20.1% | 6.8% | 3.0% | 3.02 | 3.93 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 35 | MLB | NYM | 35 | — | 35 | 147 | 27 | 11 | 4 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 2.8% | 4.39 | 4.44 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | NYM | 31 | — | 31 | 130 | 24 | 11 | 4 | 18.1% | 8.4% | 3.2% | 4.63 | 4.79 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 344 | 64 | 736 | 3063 | 629 | 187 | 94 | 20.5% | 6.1% | 3.1% | 3.64 | 3.83 | +13.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 93 | 17 | 200 | 832 | 171 | 51 | 26 | 20.5% | 6.1% | 3.1% | 3.64 | 3.83 | +3.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kevin Herget (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.44 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 2.8% | — | 4.79 | 18.1% | 9.6% | 31 | +0.35 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Vogelsong R 2029 · 4.46 FIP | 38 | SP | 4.46 | 18.1% | 9.4% | 3.1% | .295 | 4.67 | 16.7% | 6.3% | 82 | +0.21 | 4.46 | 217 | 53 |
| Jarrett Grube R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.16 | 15.8% | 8.1% | 2.5% | .296 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 393 | 52 |
| Josh Lindblom R 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 35 | SP | 5.22 | 20.8% | 8.8% | 5.0% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | 348 | 49 |
| Brad Penny R 2028 · 3.52 FIP | 37 | SP | 3.52 | 12.0% | 5.8% | 1.3% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52 | 135 | 49 |
| Kameron Loe R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 35 | SP | 3.47 | 17.1% | 8.0% | 1.5% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 201 | 49 |
| Jesse Estrada R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.91 | 14.4% | 6.6% | 4.0% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.71 | 257 | 48 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez R 2024 · 5.02 FIP | 33 | SP | 5.02 | 21.5% | 9.0% | 4.7% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 469 | 48 |
| James Shields R 2026 · 5.07 FIP | 35 | SP | 5.07 | 20.1% | 9.3% | 4.5% | .271 | 4.81 | 17.7% | 8.7% | 205 | -0.26 | 4.36 | 720 | 48 |
| Roberto Hernandez R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.22 | 13.8% | 7.0% | 2.5% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.22 | 171 | 48 |
| Yoanner Negrin R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.31 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 3.0% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.19 | 485 | 47 |
| Craig Stammen R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.03 | 21.5% | 3.8% | 4.1% | .279 | 4.00 | 21.8% | 17.7% | 153 | -0.03 | 1.87 | 407 | 46 |
| Chien-Ming Wang R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.13 | 7.6% | 6.1% | 1.6% | .354 | 4.52 | 13.0% | 5.2% | 53 | +0.39 | 4.13 | 183 | 46 |
| Yasutomo Kubo R 2029 · 3.67 FIP | 38 | SP | 3.67 | 20.4% | 4.7% | 3.1% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 152 | 46 |
| Walter Silva R 2029 · 3.95 FIP | 38 | SP- | 3.95 | 14.8% | 7.4% | 2.1% | .311 | 3.96 | 10.4% | 3.7% | 209 | +0.01 | 3.68 | 428 | 46 |
| Kyle Lohse R 2027 · 4.98 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.98 | 16.2% | 6.0% | 4.5% | .309 | 5.53 | 14.8% | 8.8% | 59 | +0.55 | 4.98 | 211 | 45 |
| Angel Castro R 2025 · 3.48 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.48 | 14.5% | 7.4% | 1.2% | .332 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.48 | 292 | 45 |
| Jeremy Guthrie R 2027 · 5.42 FIP | 36 | SP | 5.42 | 12.7% | 6.5% | 4.7% | .309 | 5.00 | 11.6% | 3.0% | 87 | -0.42 | 5.00 | 235 | 45 |
| Tomoyuki Sugano R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.91 | 15.7% | 5.0% | 4.5% | .279 | 5.13 | 13.6% | 6.6% | 68 | +0.22 | 4.91 | 225 | 44 |
| Joe Blanton R 2026 · 3.13 FIP | 35 | SP- | 3.13 | 25.4% | 7.0% | 2.4% | .233 | 4.94 | 20.0% | 14.4% | 44 | +1.81 | 3.13 | 240 | 43 |
| Frankie De La Cruz R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.34 | 16.2% | 8.0% | 2.9% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 240 | 43 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.