Jay Jackson
P
Minnesota Twins
+0.1
WAR
Age 38
RHP
6'1" / 195 lbs
MLB
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.61
FIP4.49
xFIP3.83
SIERA3.48
K%24.3%
BB%8.3%
K-BB%16.0%
IP24
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
STUF6060
CTRL4545
CMD5555
K†6060
FB Velo
p1491.9
Whiff%
p5325.7%
K%
p6725.4%
xwOBA vs
p290.336
FB+3.1 (31%)
SI (5%)
CH-1.8 (13%)
SL-6.3 (56%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 27 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 60 | 0 | 79 | 315 | 90 | 17 | 2 | 24.1% | 6.2% | 0.9% | 2.63 | 2.37 | +2.4 |
| 2019 | 31 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 62 | 0 | 71 | 292 | 101 | 26 | 7 | 32.4% | 9.1% | 2.4% | 2.66 | 2.84 | +1.8 |
| 2021 | 33 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 33 | 1 | 36 | 138 | 52 | 13 | 4 | 31.1% | 13.3% | 3.5% | 2.78 | 4.11 | +0.3 |
| 2022 | 34 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 23 | 1 | 23 | 93 | 27 | 4 | 2 | 27.5% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 2.35 | 2.97 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 35 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 50 | 0 | 59 | 241 | 70 | 13 | 12 | 26.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.14 | 4.71 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 36 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 23 | 0 | 29 | 124 | 31 | 9 | 7 | 25.4% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 7.06 | 5.38 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 38 | MLB | MIN | 24 | — | 24 | 102 | 25 | 8 | 4 | 24.3% | 8.2% | 3.7% | 4.53 | 4.49 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 39 | MLB | MIN | 22 | — | 22 | 94 | 22 | 8 | 4 | 23.5% | 8.5% | 3.8% | 4.62 | 4.68 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 251 | 2 | 296 | 1203 | 335 | 92 | 39 | 27.9% | 7.7% | 3.3% | 3.37 | 3.51 | +6.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 169 | 1 | 200 | 812 | 226 | 62 | 26 | 27.9% | 7.7% | 3.3% | 3.37 | 3.51 | +4.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jay Jackson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.49 | 24.3% | 8.2% | 3.7% | — | 4.68 | 23.5% | 15.0% | 22 | +0.19 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Madson R 2025 · 3.47 FIP | 37 | SW | 3.47 | 23.4% | 6.1% | 2.9% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.43 | 240 | 73 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 38 | SW | 4.17 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.0% | .272 | 3.38 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.79 | 2.67 | 295 | 72 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 38 | SW | 3.55 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 2.6% | .179 | 4.12 | 23.5% | 12.9% | 98 | +0.57 | 3.55 | 164 | 71 |
| Logan Ondrusek R 2024 · 4.34 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.34 | 19.2% | 7.3% | 3.5% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 138 | 68 |
| Ervin Santana R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 38 | SW | 4.32 | 18.8% | 7.6% | 3.4% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.75 | 720 | 66 |
| Joe Blanton R 2024 · 5.01 FIP | 36 | SU | 5.01 | 20.0% | 5.6% | 5.2% | .319 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.12 | 240 | 65 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2024 · 4.65 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.65 | 15.8% | 7.1% | 3.6% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 119 | 65 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2026 · 5.44 FIP | 38 | SW | 5.44 | 15.9% | 7.2% | 5.1% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.21 | 225 | 64 |
| Peter Moylan R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 38 | SW | 3.58 | 18.9% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .211 | 4.94 | 17.8% | 6.2% | 28 | +1.36 | 3.11 | 174 | 63 |
| Seunghwan Oh R 2025 · 5.68 FIP | 37 | SU | 5.68 | 18.2% | 6.8% | 5.9% | .383 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.80 | 226 | 61 |
| Matt Belisle R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.33 | 15.4% | 6.2% | 3.2% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.49 | 174 | 61 |
| Ronald Belisario R 2024 · 4.18 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.18 | 12.7% | 3.9% | 3.0% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.10 | 126 | 59 |
| Tomoyuki Sugano R 2024 · 5.58 FIP | 36 | SU | 5.58 | 19.0% | 4.8% | 6.3% | .150 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.89 | 174 | 58 |
| Zack Segovia R 2024 · 4.52 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.52 | 17.6% | 13.6% | 2.2% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.37 | 144 | 55 |
| Kyle Lohse R 2025 · 5.01 FIP | 37 | SW | 5.01 | 14.8% | 6.0% | 4.4% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.01 | 211 | 55 |
| Erubiel Gonzalez R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.48 | 13.3% | 2.5% | 2.2% | .388 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.00 | 119 | 54 |
| Logan Duran R 2025 · 3.65 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.65 | 15.5% | 8.9% | 1.3% | .427 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 187 | 54 |
| Adam Wainwright R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 38 | SW | 3.99 | 20.6% | 5.7% | 3.5% | .245 | 3.91 | 17.8% | 11.2% | 499 | -0.08 | 2.03 | 1,127 | 52 |
| Chien-Ming Wang R 2024 · 4.56 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.56 | 13.0% | 7.8% | 2.9% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.26 | 183 | 51 |
| Chris Young R 2026 · 5.54 FIP | 38 | SU | 5.54 | 14.9% | 8.1% | 4.9% | .374 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.62 | 242 | 51 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.