Jay Jackson

P Minnesota Twins

Age 39 RHP 6'1" / 195 lbs MLB peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	34	MIX3 levels	23	1	23	2.35	2.40	29.0%	4.3%	0.6	K 27.5% · BB 5.3% · FIP 2.98
2023	35	MIX2 levels	50	0	59	4.14	4.04	29.0%	5.4%	0.4	K 26.5% · BB 5.1% · FIP 4.61
2024	36	MIX2 levels	23	0	29	7.06	5.01	25.0%	7.3%	-0.2	K 25.4% · BB 7.9% · FIP 5.31
2025	37	No MLB games played
2026	38	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	39	MLBMIN	39	0	41	4.26	4.39	24.0%	8.9%	0.1
2028PROJ78% MLB	40	MLBMIN	21	0	22	4.60	4.82	22.9%	9.6%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.8 · Next 2 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024

K%67

xwOBA vs29

FB Velo14

CompsTakashi Saito (age 39) · Juan Sandoval (age 38) · Keiichi Yabu (age 39)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117108vR 100

ERA4.26

FIP4.39

K%24.0%

BB%8.9%

K-BB%15.2%

Proj IP45

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 45 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL4545

CMD5555

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1491.9

Whiff%

p5325.7%

p6725.4%

xwOBA vs

p290.336

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	60	0	79	315	90	17	2	0%	1.3	24.1%	6.2%	17.9%	0.9%	2.63	2.36	+2.1
2015	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	60	0	79	315	90	17	2	0%	1.3	28.6%	5.4%	23.2%	0.6%	2.63	1.79	+2.6
2019	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	62	0	71	292	101	26	7	0%	1.1	32.4%	9.1%	23.3%	2.3%	2.66	2.80	+1.5
2019	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	62	0	71	292	101	26	7	0%	1.1	34.6%	8.9%	25.7%	2.4%	2.66	2.64	+1.6
2021	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	1	36	138	52	13	4	3%	1.1	31.1%	13.3%	17.8%	3.6%	2.78	4.14	+0.2
2021	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	1	36	138	52	13	4	3%	1.1	37.7%	9.4%	28.3%	2.9%	2.78	2.74	+0.8
2022	34	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	1	23	93	27	4	2	4%	1.0	27.5%	5.3%	22.3%	2.8%	2.35	2.98	+0.4
2022	34	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	1	23	93	27	4	2	4%	1.0	29.0%	4.3%	24.7%	2.2%	2.35	2.40	+0.6
2023	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	0	59	241	70	13	12	0%	1.2	26.5%	5.1%	21.4%	5.6%	4.14	4.61	-0.0
2023	35	MIX RAW	2 levels	50	0	59	241	70	13	12	0%	1.2	29.0%	5.4%	23.7%	5.0%	4.14	4.04	+0.4
2024	36	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	0	29	124	31	9	7	0%	1.3	25.4%	7.9%	17.5%	6.1%	7.06	5.31	-0.3
2024	36	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	0	29	124	31	9	7	0%	1.3	25.4%	7.9%	17.5%	6.1%	7.06	5.31	-0.3
2024	36	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	0	29	124	31	9	7	0%	1.3	25.0%	7.3%	17.7%	5.6%	7.06	5.01	-0.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			104	1	114	477	136	46	20	1%	1.1	28.5%	9.6%	18.9%	4.2%	4.43	4.21	+0.5
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	39	MLB	MIN	39	0	41	173	42	15	6	0%	1.1	24.0%	8.9%	15.2%	3.3%	4.26	4.39	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	40	MLB MLE	MIN	27	0	29	121	28	12	5	0%	1.1	22.9%	9.6%	13.3%	3.8%	4.60	4.82	-0.1
2028	40	MLB CTX	MIN	21	0	22	93	21	9	3	0%	1.0	22.9%	9.6%	13.3%	3.8%	4.60	4.82	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		125	1	136	571	158	55	24	1%	1.1	27.6%	9.6%	18.0%	4.1%	4.46	4.25	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		184	1	200	840	232	81	35	1%	1.1	27.6%	9.6%	18.0%	4.1%	4.46	4.25	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		251	2	296	1203	334	91	39	1%	1.2	27.8%	7.6%	20.2%	3.2%	3.37	3.47	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		169	1	200	812	226	62	26	1%	1.2	27.8%	7.6%	20.2%	3.2%	3.37	3.47	+0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2023 AAABuffalo Bisons · 29 IPFIP 4.32 → 5.37 (+1.05)K% 34.4% → 29.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.40%	—	×0.860	29.58%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.80%	—	×0.900	4.32%
HR / BF /BF	6.40%	÷0.916	×1.100	7.68%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 83).

Result: FIP 4.32 → 5.37, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 20 IPFIP 2.47 → 2.98 (+0.51)K% 31.2% → 27.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.25%	—	×0.880	27.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.00%	—	×1.050	5.25%
HR / BF /BF	2.50%	÷0.981	×1.100	2.80%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 96).

Result: FIP 2.47 → 2.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAASacramento River Cats · 14 IPFIP 0.29 → 0.93 (+0.64)K% 50.0% → 44.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	50.00%	—	×0.880	44.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.08%	—	×1.050	2.19%
HR / BF /BF	2.08%	÷0.995	×1.100	2.30%

Result: FIP 0.29 → 0.93, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAASan Antonio Missions · 41 IPFIP 1.31 → 1.73 (+0.42)K% 33.8% → 29.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.75%	—	×0.880	29.70%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.62%	—	×1.050	5.91%
HR / BF /BF	0.62%	÷0.977	×1.100	0.70%

Result: FIP 1.31 → 1.73, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 64 IPFIP 1.96 → 2.36 (+0.40)K% 27.3% → 24.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.34%	—	×0.880	24.06%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.86%	—	×1.050	6.15%
HR / BF /BF	0.78%	÷0.919	×1.100	0.94%

Result: FIP 1.96 → 2.36, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AASan Antonio Missions · 11 IPFIP -0.04 → 0.65 (+0.69)K% 41.0% → 33.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	41.03%	—	×0.810	33.23%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.56%	—	×1.100	2.82%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.885	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 77).

Result: FIP -0.04 → 0.65, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

	Profile at Match Age	Next 3 Yrs	Career
Jay Jackson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.39	24.0%	8.9%	3.3%	—	4.82	22.9%	13.3%	29	+0.43	—	—	—
Takashi Saito R 2009 · 3.86 FIP	39	SU	3.86	21.7%	9.6%	2.5%	.277	3.07	26.7%	20.0%	93	-0.79	1.50	338	74
Juan Sandoval R 2019 · 5.41 FIP	38	SU	5.41	15.9%	7.2%	5.0%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.24	225	68
Keiichi Yabu R 2008 · 3.48 FIP	39	SU	3.48	15.9%	9.3%	1.0%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	126	63
Gaudencio Aguirre R 2015 · 3.25 FIP	42	SU	3.25	14.8%	8.6%	0.6%	.293	3.88	14.9%	6.8%	75	+0.63	3.25	123	60
Erubiel Gonzalez R 2017 · 3.51 FIP	38	SU	3.51	13.3%	2.5%	2.2%	.388	—	—	—	—	—	2.99	119	54
Hector Navarro R 2017 · 3.53 FIP	37	SU	3.53	11.5%	5.6%	1.3%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	2.30	126	54
Hisanori Takahashi L 2012 · 4.04 FIP	37	SU	4.04	24.5%	6.1%	4.1%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	240	36
Logan Duran R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	37	SP-	3.66	15.5%	8.9%	1.4%	.427	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	187	30

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	31	26.5%	9.8%	1.51	4.42
Heath Hembree ('23)	1.8	51	25.4%	9.4%	1.67	4.37
Chasen Shreve ('24)	1.8	45	25.2%	10.8%	1.54	3.96
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.5	59	24.8%	9.4%	1.42	4.21
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*
Buddy Schultz ('75-'79, 2 WAR*)	1.2	60	27.4%*	8.5%*	1.21*	4.14*
Julio Navarro ('62-'70, 1 WAR*)	1.1	53	21.7%*	7.8%*	1.55*	4.13*

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jay Jackson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.39	24.0%	8.9%	3.3%	—	4.82	22.9%	13.3%	29	+0.43	—	—	—
Takashi Saito R 2009 · 3.86 FIP	39	SU	3.86	21.7%	9.6%	2.5%	.277	3.07	26.7%	20.0%	93	-0.79	1.50	338	74
Juan Sandoval R 2019 · 5.41 FIP	38	SU	5.41	15.9%	7.2%	5.0%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.24	225	68
Keiichi Yabu R 2008 · 3.48 FIP	39	SU	3.48	15.9%	9.3%	1.0%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	126	63
Gaudencio Aguirre R 2015 · 3.25 FIP	42	SU	3.25	14.8%	8.6%	0.6%	.293	3.88	14.9%	6.8%	75	+0.63	3.25	123	60
Erubiel Gonzalez R 2017 · 3.51 FIP	38	SU	3.51	13.3%	2.5%	2.2%	.388	—	—	—	—	—	2.99	119	54
Hector Navarro R 2017 · 3.53 FIP	37	SU	3.53	11.5%	5.6%	1.3%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	2.30	126	54
Hisanori Takahashi L 2012 · 4.04 FIP	37	SU	4.04	24.5%	6.1%	4.1%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	240	36
Logan Duran R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	37	SP-	3.66	15.5%	8.9%	1.4%	.427	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	187	30

Jay Jackson

Contract

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Path Comps

Career Comps