Jay Jackson
P
Minnesota Twins
Age 38
RHP
6'1" / 195 lbs
MLB
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 51 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120111vR 102
ERA4.35
FIP4.46
K%24.6%
BB%8.2%
K-BB%16.5%
ROS IP51
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 51 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1491.9
Whiff%
p5325.7%
K%
p6725.4%
xwOBA vs
p290.336
FB+3.1 (31%)
SI (5%)
CH-1.8 (13%)
SL-6.3 (56%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 60 | 0 | 79 | 315 | 90 | 17 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 24.1% | 6.2% | 17.9% | 1.0% | 2.63 | 2.41 | +2.3 |
| 2015 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 60 | 0 | 79 | 315 | 90 | 17 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 28.6% | 5.4% | 23.2% | 0.6% | 2.63 | 1.79 | +2.9 |
| 2019 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 62 | 0 | 71 | 292 | 101 | 26 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 32.4% | 9.1% | 23.3% | 2.5% | 2.66 | 2.91 | +1.6 |
| 2019 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 62 | 0 | 71 | 292 | 101 | 26 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 34.6% | 8.9% | 25.7% | 2.4% | 2.66 | 2.64 | +1.8 |
| 2021 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 1 | 36 | 138 | 52 | 13 | 4 | 3% | 1.1 | 31.1% | 13.3% | 17.8% | 3.6% | 2.78 | 4.15 | +0.2 |
| 2021 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 1 | 36 | 138 | 52 | 13 | 4 | 3% | 1.1 | 37.7% | 9.4% | 28.3% | 2.9% | 2.78 | 2.74 | +0.8 |
| 2022 | 34 | MIX | 3 levels | 23 | 1 | 23 | 93 | 27 | 4 | 2 | 4% | 1.0 | 27.5% | 5.3% | 22.3% | 2.9% | 2.35 | 3.01 | +0.4 |
| 2022 | 34 | MIX | 3 levels | 23 | 1 | 23 | 93 | 27 | 4 | 2 | 4% | 1.0 | 29.0% | 4.3% | 24.7% | 2.2% | 2.35 | 2.40 | +0.6 |
| 2023 | 35 | MIX | 2 levels | 50 | 0 | 59 | 241 | 70 | 13 | 12 | 0% | 1.2 | 26.9% | 5.5% | 21.4% | 6.0% | 4.14 | 4.85 | -0.2 |
| 2023 | 35 | MIX | 2 levels | 50 | 0 | 59 | 241 | 70 | 13 | 12 | 0% | 1.2 | 29.0% | 5.4% | 23.7% | 5.0% | 4.14 | 4.04 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 36 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 0 | 29 | 124 | 31 | 9 | 7 | 0% | 1.3 | 25.4% | 7.9% | 17.5% | 6.1% | 7.06 | 5.29 | -0.3 |
| 2024 | 36 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 0 | 29 | 124 | 31 | 9 | 7 | 0% | 1.3 | 25.0% | 7.3% | 17.7% | 5.6% | 7.06 | 5.01 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 38 | MLB | MIN | 49 | 0 | 51 | 217 | 53 | 18 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.6% | 8.2% | 16.5% | 3.7% | 4.35 | 4.46 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 39 | MLB | MIN | 42 | 0 | 44 | 186 | 44 | 16 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.5% | 8.9% | 14.6% | 4.1% | 4.68 | 4.90 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 40 | MLB | MIN | 36 | 0 | 38 | 160 | 36 | 15 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 12.8% | 4.6% | 5.07 | 5.33 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 41 | MLB | MIN | 31 | 0 | 33 | 138 | 29 | 14 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.2% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 5.0% | 5.49 | 5.76 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 39 | MLB | MIN | 36 | 0 | 38 | 160 | 38 | 14 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.5% | 8.9% | 14.6% | 4.1% | 4.68 | 4.90 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 40 | MLB | MIN | 26 | 0 | 27 | 114 | 25 | 11 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 12.8% | 4.6% | 5.07 | 5.33 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 41 | MLB | MIN | 18 | 0 | 19 | 80 | 17 | 8 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.2% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 5.0% | 5.49 | 5.76 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 184 | 1 | 198 | 832 | 216 | 79 | 36 | 1% | 1.1 | 26.0% | 9.5% | 16.4% | 4.3% | 4.67 | 4.49 | +2.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 186 | 1 | 200 | 841 | 218 | 80 | 36 | 1% | 1.1 | 26.0% | 9.5% | 16.4% | 4.3% | 4.67 | 4.49 | +2.1 | ||
| Career | — | 251 | 2 | 296 | 1203 | 335 | 92 | 40 | 1% | 1.2 | 27.9% | 7.7% | 20.2% | 3.4% | 3.37 | 3.56 | +6.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 169 | 1 | 200 | 812 | 226 | 62 | 27 | 1% | 1.2 | 27.9% | 7.7% | 20.2% | 3.4% | 3.37 | 3.56 | +4.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jay Jackson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.46 | 24.6% | 8.2% | 3.7% | — | 5.29 | 22.4% | 12.9% | 115 | +0.83 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Madson R 2025 · 3.65 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.65 | 23.4% | 6.1% | 3.2% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.42 | 240 | 78 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.26 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .272 | 3.34 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.92 | 2.67 | 295 | 77 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.73 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 3.0% | .179 | 4.04 | 23.5% | 12.9% | 98 | +0.31 | 3.72 | 164 | 77 |
| Ervin Santana R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.38 | 18.8% | 7.6% | 3.5% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | 720 | 68 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2026 · 5.49 FIP | 38 | SU | 5.49 | 15.9% | 7.2% | 5.1% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.17 | 225 | 67 |
| Peter Moylan R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.61 | 18.9% | 9.1% | 1.8% | .211 | 4.77 | 17.8% | 6.2% | 28 | +1.16 | 3.10 | 174 | 66 |
| Joe Blanton R 2024 · 4.94 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.94 | 20.0% | 5.6% | 5.1% | .319 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 240 | 65 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2024 · 4.56 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.56 | 15.8% | 7.1% | 3.5% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 119 | 64 |
| Seunghwan Oh R 2025 · 5.30 FIP | 37 | SU | 5.30 | 18.2% | 6.8% | 5.2% | .383 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.81 | 226 | 61 |
| Matt Belisle R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.59 | 15.4% | 6.2% | 3.7% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 174 | 60 |
| Ronald Belisario R 2024 · 4.74 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.74 | 12.7% | 3.9% | 4.0% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.10 | 126 | 58 |
| Zack Segovia R 2024 · 4.36 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.36 | 17.6% | 13.6% | 1.9% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 144 | 57 |
| Erubiel Gonzalez R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.66 | 13.3% | 2.5% | 2.5% | .388 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 119 | 54 |
| Chien-Ming Wang R 2024 · 4.52 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.52 | 13.0% | 7.8% | 2.8% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 183 | 53 |
| Hector Navarro R 2025 · 3.41 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.41 | 11.5% | 5.6% | 1.0% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 126 | 50 |
| Brad Ziegler R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.88 | 16.4% | 6.2% | 2.5% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.61 | 257 | 49 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.08 | 16.8% | 15.2% | 0.9% | .248 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.51 | 219 | 49 |
| Daniel Bard R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.81 | 20.3% | 19.8% | 1.7% | .224 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.48 | 200 | 49 |
| Chris Young R 2026 · 5.65 FIP | 38 | SU | 5.65 | 14.9% | 8.1% | 5.1% | .374 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.67 | 242 | 46 |
| Tony Pena Jr. R 2024 · 3.54 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.54 | 10.9% | 4.3% | 1.5% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.79 | 128 | 45 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 41 | 23.1% | 9.1% | 1.66 | 4.83 |
| Mike Mayers ('23) | 5 | 47 | 24.3% | 7.8% | 1.50 | 4.47 |
| Alex Young ('23) | 5 | 52 | 19.5% | 8.6% | 1.61 | 4.43 |
| Austin Voth ('24) | 6 | 58 | 22.2% | 8.2% | 1.50 | 4.63 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |