Jay Jackson — OGILVIE

Jay Jackson P Minnesota Twins

Age 38 RHP 6'1" / 195 lbs MLB

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.34

FIP4.46

K%24.5%

BB%8.1%

K-BB%16.4%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 4 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL4545

CMD5555

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1491.9

Whiff%

p5325.7%

p6725.4%

xwOBA vs

p290.336

FB+3.1 (31%)

SI (5%)

CH-1.8 (13%)

SL-6.3 (56%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	60	0	79	315	90	17	2	0%	1.3	24.1%	6.2%	17.9%	0.9%	2.63	2.36	+2.1
2015	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	60	0	79	315	90	17	2	0%	1.3	28.6%	5.4%	23.2%	0.6%	2.63	1.79	+2.6
2019	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	62	0	71	292	101	26	7	0%	1.1	32.4%	9.1%	23.3%	2.3%	2.66	2.80	+1.5
2019	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	62	0	71	292	101	26	7	0%	1.1	34.6%	8.9%	25.7%	2.4%	2.66	2.64	+1.6
2021	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	1	36	138	52	13	4	3%	1.1	31.1%	13.3%	17.8%	3.6%	2.78	4.14	+0.2
2021	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	1	36	138	52	13	4	3%	1.1	37.7%	9.4%	28.3%	2.9%	2.78	2.74	+0.8
2022	34	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	1	23	93	27	4	2	4%	1.0	27.5%	5.3%	22.3%	2.8%	2.35	2.98	+0.4
2022	34	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	1	23	93	27	4	2	4%	1.0	29.0%	4.3%	24.7%	2.2%	2.35	2.40	+0.6
2023	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	0	59	241	70	13	12	0%	1.2	26.0%	5.1%	20.9%	5.6%	4.14	4.65	-0.1
2023	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	0	59	241	70	13	12	0%	1.2	26.0%	5.1%	20.9%	5.6%	4.14	4.65	-0.1
2023	35	MIX RAW	2 levels	50	0	59	241	70	13	12	0%	1.2	29.0%	5.4%	23.7%	5.0%	4.14	4.04	+0.4
2024	36	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	0	29	124	31	9	7	0%	1.3	25.4%	7.9%	17.5%	6.1%	7.06	5.31	-0.3
2024	36	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	0	29	124	31	9	7	0%	1.3	25.4%	7.9%	17.5%	6.1%	7.06	5.31	-0.3
2024	36	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	0	29	124	31	9	7	0%	1.3	25.0%	7.3%	17.7%	5.6%	7.06	5.01	-0.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			104	1	114	477	136	46	20	1%	1.1	28.5%	9.6%	18.9%	4.2%	4.43	4.21	+0.5
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	38	MLB	MIN	4	0	4	17	4	1	1	0%	1.0	24.5%	8.1%	16.4%	3.7%	4.34	4.46	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	39	MLB MLE	MIN	42	0	44	186	44	16	8	0%	1.1	23.4%	8.8%	14.6%	4.1%	4.67	4.89	-0.2
2027	39	MLB CTX	MIN	36	0	38	160	38	14	7	0%	1.1	23.4%	8.8%	14.6%	4.1%	4.67	4.89	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		140	1	152	637	173	60	27	1%	1.1	27.2%	9.4%	17.8%	4.2%	4.49	4.29	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		185	1	200	841	228	79	36	1%	1.1	27.2%	9.4%	17.8%	4.2%	4.49	4.29	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		251	2	296	1203	333	91	39	1%	1.2	27.7%	7.6%	20.1%	3.2%	3.37	3.48	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		169	1	200	812	225	62	26	1%	1.2	27.7%	7.6%	20.1%	3.2%	3.37	3.48	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jay Jackson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.46	24.5%	8.1%	3.7%	—	4.89	23.4%	14.6%	44	+0.43	—	—	—
Fernando Rodney R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	38	SU	4.37	20.9%	9.4%	3.4%	.272	3.37	26.2%	15.2%	185	-1.00	2.69	295	77
Joaquín Benoit R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	38	SU	3.58	24.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.179	4.11	23.5%	12.9%	98	+0.53	3.58	164	76
Ryan Madson R 2018 · 3.49 FIP	37	SU	3.49	23.4%	6.1%	2.9%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	1.42	240	74
Ervin Santana R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	38	SU	4.40	18.8%	7.6%	3.5%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	720	69
Juan Sandoval R 2019 · 5.41 FIP	38	SU	5.41	15.9%	7.2%	5.0%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.24	225	67
Peter Moylan R 2017 · 3.63 FIP	38	SU	3.63	18.9%	9.1%	1.8%	.211	4.77	17.8%	6.2%	28	+1.14	3.11	174	66
Joe Blanton R 2017 · 4.94 FIP	36	SU	4.94	20.0%	5.6%	5.1%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	240	64
Rudy Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	36	SU	4.72	15.8%	7.1%	3.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	119	64
Matt Belisle R 2018 · 4.60 FIP	38	SU	4.60	15.4%	6.2%	3.7%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	2.51	174	60
Ronald Belisario R 2019 · 4.16 FIP	36	SU	4.16	12.7%	3.9%	3.0%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	2.10	126	58
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	58
Erubiel Gonzalez R 2017 · 3.51 FIP	38	SU	3.51	13.3%	2.5%	2.2%	.388	—	—	—	—	—	2.99	119	54
Chien-Ming Wang R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	36	SU	4.53	13.0%	7.8%	2.8%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.23	183	53
Hector Navarro R 2017 · 3.53 FIP	37	SU	3.53	11.5%	5.6%	1.3%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	2.30	126	51
Daniel Bard R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	38	SU	4.95	20.3%	19.8%	1.9%	.224	—	—	—	—	—	2.56	200	49
Santiago Casilla R 2018 · 4.14 FIP	38	SU	4.14	16.8%	15.2%	1.0%	.248	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	219	48
Brad Ziegler R 2018 · 4.03 FIP	38	SU	4.03	16.4%	6.2%	2.8%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	2.63	257	48
Tony Pena Jr. R 2017 · 3.43 FIP	36	SU	3.43	10.9%	4.3%	1.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	128	45
Yoshihisa Hirano R 2020 · 5.02 FIP	36	SU	5.02	17.5%	12.7%	3.3%	.381	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	132	41
Wilfredo Ledezma L 2017 · 3.35 FIP	36	SU	3.35	26.7%	8.3%	2.7%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	2.58	109	36

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.5	48	24.0%	8.4%	1.50	4.49
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Eli Morgan ('24)	1.3	66	23.8%	6.4%	1.46	3.97
Colin Poche ('24)	1.0	52	27.0%	9.2%	1.34	3.63
Félix Peña ('20)	1.2	62	23.6%	8.3%	1.37	4.46