Chasen Shreve — OGILVIE

Chasen Shreve P Gwinnett Stripers

Age 36 LHP 6'4" / 180 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 101109vR 118

ERA4.46

FIP4.73

K%18.3%

BB%7.5%

K-BB%10.8%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 4 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL4545

CMD4545

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1090.5

Whiff%

p7028.5%

p5623.3%

xwOBA vs

p470.315

SL (30%)

FB (30%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	60	0	61	262	64	32	10	0%	1.0	25.5%	12.4%	13.1%	3.7%	2.97	4.56	-0.0
2015	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	60	0	61	262	64	32	10	0%	1.0	24.4%	12.2%	12.2%	3.8%	2.97	4.72	-0.1
2016	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	1	50	202	53	20	9	2%	1.0	25.0%	10.1%	15.0%	4.3%	3.99	4.60	-0.0
2016	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	50	1	50	202	53	20	9	2%	1.0	26.2%	9.9%	16.3%	4.5%	3.99	4.53	+0.0
2017	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	0	57	241	77	25	8	0%	1.1	29.3%	11.1%	18.2%	3.8%	3.34	4.11	+0.3
2017	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	53	0	57	241	77	25	8	0%	1.1	32.0%	10.4%	21.6%	3.3%	3.34	3.54	+0.7
2018	28	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	60	0	53	235	62	27	11	0%	0.9	26.4%	11.5%	14.9%	5.0%	3.93	5.09	-0.3
2018	28	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	60	0	53	235	62	27	11	0%	0.9	26.4%	11.5%	14.9%	4.7%	3.93	5.00	-0.3
2019	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	0	62	255	70	27	6	0%	1.1	24.4%	11.1%	13.3%	2.7%	3.63	3.95	+0.4
2019	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	54	0	62	255	70	27	6	0%	1.1	27.5%	10.6%	16.9%	2.4%	3.63	3.41	+0.8
2020	30	MLB MLE	New York Mets	17	0	25	102	34	12	4	0%	1.5	33.3%	11.8%	21.6%	3.9%	3.96	3.93	+0.2
2020	30	MLB RAW	New York Mets	17	0	25	102	34	12	4	0%	1.5	33.3%	11.8%	21.6%	3.9%	3.96	3.90	+0.2
2021	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	59	0	58	242	48	28	7	0%	1.0	19.1%	11.9%	7.2%	3.2%	3.09	4.76	-0.1
2021	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	59	0	58	242	48	28	7	0%	1.0	19.8%	11.6%	8.3%	2.9%	3.09	4.45	+0.1
2022	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	0	31	131	34	10	6	0%	1.0	25.4%	7.9%	17.5%	5.3%	5.81	4.85	-0.1
2022	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	0	31	131	34	10	6	0%	1.0	26.0%	7.6%	18.3%	4.6%	5.81	4.39	+0.1
2023	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	56	0	49	207	50	15	8	0%	0.9	23.3%	7.3%	16.1%	3.4%	4.44	3.89	+0.4
2023	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	56	0	49	207	50	15	8	0%	0.9	23.3%	7.3%	16.1%	3.4%	4.44	3.89	+0.4
2023	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	56	0	49	207	50	15	8	0%	0.9	24.2%	7.2%	16.9%	3.9%	4.44	4.11	+0.3
2024	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	35	135	35	12	6	0%	1.1	22.2%	8.2%	13.9%	4.6%	2.55	4.80	-0.1
2024	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	35	135	35	12	6	0%	1.1	22.2%	8.2%	13.9%	4.6%	2.55	4.80	-0.1
2024	34	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	0	35	135	35	12	6	0%	1.1	25.9%	8.9%	17.0%	4.4%	2.55	4.35	+0.1
2025	35	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	5	4	18	79	12	5	3	80%	3.5	12.6%	5.7%	6.9%	4.3%	5.60	5.14	—
2025	35	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	5	4	18	79	12	5	3	80%	3.5	12.6%	5.7%	6.9%	4.3%	5.60	5.14	—
2025	35	AAA RAW	Gwinnett Stripers	5	4	18	79	12	5	3	80%	3.5	15.2%	6.3%	8.9%	3.8%	5.60	4.80	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			353	0	345	1484	372	157	61	0%	1.0	25.1%	10.6%	14.5%	4.1%	4.07	4.61	-0.2
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	36	MLB	ATL	4	0	4	17	3	1	1	0%	1.0	18.3%	7.5%	10.8%	3.4%	4.46	4.73	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	37	MLB MLE	ATL	46	0	48	202	35	16	8	0%	1.0	17.2%	8.1%	9.1%	3.8%	4.86	5.13	-0.3
2028	38	MLB MLE	ATL	39	0	41	174	28	15	7	0%	1.1	16.0%	8.8%	7.2%	4.2%	5.28	5.57	-0.5
2027	37	MLB CTX	ATL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.2%	8.1%	9.1%	3.8%	4.86	5.13	—
2028	38	MLB CTX	ATL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	16.0%	8.8%	7.2%	4.2%	5.28	5.57	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		353	0	345	1486	372	157	61	0%	1.0	25.1%	10.6%	14.5%	4.1%	4.07	4.58	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		205	0	200	861	216	91	35	0%	1.0	25.1%	10.6%	14.5%	4.1%	4.07	4.58	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		476	5	498	2091	514	217	82	1%	1.0	24.6%	10.4%	14.2%	3.9%	3.74	4.48	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		191	2	200	840	207	87	33	1%	1.0	24.6%	10.4%	14.2%	3.9%	3.74	4.48	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chasen Shreve (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.73	18.3%	7.5%	3.4%	—	5.33	16.6%	8.2%	89	+0.60	—	—	—
Fernando Abad L 2022 · 4.13 FIP	36	SU	4.13	15.6%	7.0%	2.7%	.290	4.37	21.1%	17.1%	38	+0.24	2.37	306	83
Neal Cotts L 2016 · 4.37 FIP	36	SU	4.37	18.0%	6.8%	3.5%	.290	3.21	25.5%	17.5%	48	-1.16	3.21	156	83
Craig Breslow L 2017 · 4.22 FIP	36	SU	4.22	14.5%	7.5%	2.5%	.308	5.13	17.8%	2.7%	19	+0.91	4.22	159	82
Jerry Blevins L 2019 · 4.09 FIP	35	SU	4.09	26.2%	9.9%	3.5%	.235	—	—	—	—	—	2.71	166	68
Jorge De La Rosa L 2017 · 4.09 FIP	36	SU	4.09	20.5%	7.8%	3.2%	.260	4.07	19.3%	9.8%	56	-0.02	3.86	405	64
Brandon Mann L 2018 · 3.59 FIP	34	SU	3.59	17.8%	11.4%	1.0%	.232	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	190	64
Brian Duensing L 2019 · 5.93 FIP	36	SU	5.93	7.1%	5.1%	5.1%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	2.57	198	59
Zach Duke L 2019 · 5.62 FIP	36	SU	5.62	17.0%	16.0%	3.5%	.254	—	—	—	—	—	2.44	215	54
Jean Machi R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	35	SU	4.12	18.6%	6.6%	3.2%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	186	40
Manny Acosta R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	35	SU	4.19	18.1%	9.1%	2.7%	.273	3.08	23.2%	9.9%	44	-1.11	3.08	102	40
Jim Johnson R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	35	SU	4.48	16.8%	7.8%	3.3%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	2.56	251	40
Josh Lueke R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	34	SU	4.11	20.4%	6.4%	3.5%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	107	39
Fernando Rodney R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	38	SU	4.37	20.9%	9.4%	3.4%	.272	3.37	26.2%	15.2%	185	-1.00	2.69	295	39
Dustin McGowan R 2017 · 4.58 FIP	35	SU	4.58	19.4%	6.7%	4.2%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	208	39
Mark Lowe R 2017 · 5.03 FIP	34	SU	5.03	16.4%	10.0%	3.7%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	2.37	153	39
Blake Parker R 2021 · 3.86 FIP	36	SU	3.86	20.0%	7.6%	2.7%	.295	5.74	26.0%	14.0%	27	+1.88	2.52	339	39
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	4.15	145	38
Carlos Torres R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	36	SU	4.28	17.8%	9.0%	2.8%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.89	326	38
Rudy Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	36	SU	4.72	15.8%	7.1%	3.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	119	38
Ronald Belisario R 2019 · 4.16 FIP	36	SU	4.16	12.7%	3.9%	3.0%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	2.10	126	38

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	48	17.3%	8.1%	1.45	4.83
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Jharel Cotton ('22)	1.2	58	19.8%	9.2%	1.59	4.50