Chasen Shreve
P
Gwinnett Stripers
Age 36
LHP
6'4" / 180 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 54 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 102111vR 120
ERA4.48
FIP4.76
K%18.9%
BB%8.2%
K-BB%10.7%
ROS IP55
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 54 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1090.5
Whiff%
p7028.5%
K%
p5623.3%
xwOBA vs
p470.315
SL (30%)
FB (30%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 60 | 0 | 61 | 262 | 64 | 32 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.5% | 12.4% | 13.1% | 3.7% | 2.97 | 4.55 | +0.0 |
| 2015 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 60 | 0 | 61 | 262 | 64 | 32 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.4% | 12.2% | 12.2% | 3.8% | 2.97 | 4.72 | -0.1 |
| 2016 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 50 | 1 | 50 | 202 | 53 | 20 | 9 | 2% | 1.0 | 25.0% | 10.1% | 15.0% | 4.2% | 3.99 | 4.58 | -0.0 |
| 2016 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 50 | 1 | 50 | 202 | 53 | 20 | 9 | 2% | 1.0 | 26.2% | 9.9% | 16.3% | 4.5% | 3.99 | 4.53 | +0.0 |
| 2017 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 53 | 0 | 57 | 241 | 77 | 25 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.3% | 11.1% | 18.2% | 3.8% | 3.34 | 4.10 | +0.3 |
| 2017 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 53 | 0 | 57 | 241 | 77 | 25 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 32.0% | 10.4% | 21.6% | 3.3% | 3.34 | 3.54 | +0.7 |
| 2018 | 28 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 60 | 0 | 53 | 235 | 62 | 27 | 11 | 0% | 0.9 | 26.4% | 11.5% | 14.9% | 4.7% | 3.93 | 4.91 | -0.2 |
| 2018 | 28 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 60 | 0 | 53 | 235 | 62 | 27 | 11 | 0% | 0.9 | 26.4% | 11.5% | 14.9% | 4.7% | 3.93 | 5.00 | -0.3 |
| 2019 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 54 | 0 | 62 | 255 | 70 | 27 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.4% | 11.1% | 13.3% | 2.8% | 3.63 | 3.98 | +0.4 |
| 2019 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 54 | 0 | 62 | 255 | 70 | 27 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.5% | 10.6% | 16.9% | 2.4% | 3.63 | 3.41 | +0.9 |
| 2020 | 30 | MLB | New York Mets | 17 | 0 | 25 | 102 | 34 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.5 | 33.3% | 11.8% | 21.6% | 3.9% | 3.96 | 3.94 | +0.2 |
| 2020 | 30 | MLB | New York Mets | 17 | 0 | 25 | 102 | 34 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.5 | 33.3% | 11.8% | 21.6% | 3.9% | 3.96 | 3.90 | +0.2 |
| 2021 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 59 | 0 | 58 | 242 | 48 | 28 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.1% | 11.9% | 7.2% | 3.0% | 3.09 | 4.64 | -0.1 |
| 2021 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 59 | 0 | 58 | 242 | 48 | 28 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.8% | 11.6% | 8.3% | 2.9% | 3.09 | 4.45 | +0.1 |
| 2022 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 0 | 31 | 131 | 34 | 10 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.4% | 7.9% | 17.5% | 5.3% | 5.81 | 4.86 | -0.1 |
| 2022 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 0 | 31 | 131 | 34 | 10 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.0% | 7.6% | 18.3% | 4.6% | 5.81 | 4.39 | +0.1 |
| 2023 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 56 | 0 | 49 | 207 | 50 | 15 | 8 | 0% | 0.9 | 23.3% | 7.3% | 16.1% | 3.4% | 4.44 | 3.94 | +0.3 |
| 2023 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 56 | 0 | 49 | 207 | 50 | 15 | 8 | 0% | 0.9 | 24.2% | 7.2% | 16.9% | 3.9% | 4.44 | 4.11 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 34 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 0 | 35 | 135 | 35 | 12 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 13.9% | 4.2% | 2.55 | 4.65 | -0.0 |
| 2024 | 34 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 0 | 35 | 135 | 35 | 12 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.9% | 8.9% | 17.0% | 4.4% | 2.55 | 4.35 | +0.1 |
| 2025 | 35 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | 5 | 4 | 18 | 79 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 80% | 3.5 | 13.4% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 5.60 | 5.30 | — |
| 2025 | 35 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | 5 | 4 | 18 | 79 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 80% | 3.5 | 15.2% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 3.8% | 5.60 | 4.80 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 36 | MLB | ATL | 52 | 0 | 55 | 232 | 44 | 19 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.9% | 8.2% | 10.7% | 3.4% | 4.48 | 4.76 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 37 | MLB | ATL | 46 | 0 | 48 | 202 | 36 | 18 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.8% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 3.8% | 4.89 | 5.16 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 38 | MLB | ATL | 39 | 0 | 41 | 174 | 29 | 17 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.7% | 9.5% | 7.1% | 4.2% | 5.31 | 5.60 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 37 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 17.8% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 3.8% | 4.89 | 5.16 | — |
| 2028 | 38 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 16.7% | 9.5% | 7.1% | 4.2% | 5.31 | 5.60 | — |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 353 | 0 | 345 | 1486 | 372 | 157 | 61 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.1% | 10.6% | 14.5% | 4.1% | 4.07 | 4.58 | +3.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 205 | 0 | 200 | 861 | 216 | 91 | 35 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.1% | 10.6% | 14.5% | 4.1% | 4.07 | 4.58 | +1.9 | ||
| Career | — | 476 | 5 | 498 | 2091 | 517 | 219 | 80 | 1% | 1.0 | 24.7% | 10.5% | 14.2% | 3.8% | 3.74 | 4.45 | +5.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 191 | 2 | 200 | 840 | 208 | 88 | 32 | 1% | 1.0 | 24.7% | 10.5% | 14.2% | 3.8% | 3.74 | 4.45 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Chasen Shreve (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.76 | 18.9% | 8.2% | 3.4% | — | 5.36 | 17.3% | 8.1% | 89 | +0.60 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Abad L 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.97 | 15.6% | 7.0% | 2.4% | .290 | 4.65 | 22.4% | 17.7% | 38 | +0.68 | 2.35 | 306 | 81 |
| Craig Breslow L 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.22 | 14.5% | 7.5% | 2.5% | .308 | 5.02 | 17.8% | 2.7% | 19 | +0.80 | 4.22 | 159 | 81 |
| Neal Cotts L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.83 | 18.0% | 6.8% | 4.4% | .290 | 3.24 | 25.5% | 17.5% | 48 | -1.59 | 3.24 | 156 | 80 |
| Heriberto Ruelas L 2025 · 3.56 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.56 | 17.2% | 6.7% | 1.9% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 117 | 78 |
| Jorge De La Rosa L 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.03 | 20.5% | 7.8% | 3.1% | .260 | 3.99 | 19.3% | 9.8% | 56 | -0.04 | 3.68 | 405 | 74 |
| Jerry Blevins L 2025 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.09 | 26.2% | 9.9% | 3.5% | .235 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.72 | 166 | 71 |
| Brandon Mann L 2024 · 3.60 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.60 | 17.8% | 11.4% | 1.0% | .232 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.60 | 190 | 65 |
| Brian Duensing L 2026 · 5.80 FIP | 36 | SU | 5.80 | 7.1% | 5.1% | 4.8% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.59 | 198 | 59 |
| Zach Duke L 2026 · 5.66 FIP | 36 | SU | 5.66 | 17.0% | 16.0% | 3.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 215 | 56 |
| J.P. Howell L 2024 · 5.94 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.94 | 11.5% | 13.5% | 3.9% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.15 | 106 | 52 |
| Jim Johnson R 2025 · 4.58 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.58 | 16.8% | 7.8% | 3.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 251 | 41 |
| Manny Acosta R 2025 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 40 |
| Jean Machi R 2025 · 3.92 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.92 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 186 | 40 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2028 · 4.26 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.26 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .272 | 3.34 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.92 | 2.67 | 295 | 40 |
| Blake Parker R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.86 | 20.0% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .295 | 5.60 | 26.0% | 14.0% | 27 | +1.74 | 2.61 | 339 | 39 |
| Carlos Torres R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.25 | 17.8% | 9.0% | 2.7% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.78 | 326 | 39 |
| Mark Lowe R 2024 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 3.3% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.37 | 153 | 39 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2025 · 4.59 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.59 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 4.2% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 208 | 39 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.09 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .267 | 6.61 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.52 | 4.09 | 145 | 39 |
| Josh Lueke R 2024 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 4.8% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.50 | 107 | 38 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 48 | 17.9% | 8.8% | 1.45 | 4.85 |
| Alex Young ('23) | 5 | 52 | 19.5% | 8.6% | 1.61 | 4.43 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| JC Ramírez ('17) | 3 | 83 | 17.0% | 7.7% | 1.30 | 4.33 |