Chasen Shreve

P Gwinnett Stripers

Age 37 LHP 6'4" / 180 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	33	MIX2 levels	56	0	49	4.44	4.11	24.2%	7.2%	0.3	K 23.3% · BB 7.3% · FIP 3.89
2024	34	MIX2 levels	32	0	35	2.55	4.35	25.9%	8.9%	0.1	K 23.0% · BB 8.2% · FIP 4.73
2025	35	AAAATL	5	4	18	5.60	4.80	15.2%	6.3%	—	K 13.1% · BB 5.7% · FIP 5.10
2026	36	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	37	MLBATL	5	0	5	4.44	4.56	20.9%	8.6%	-0.0
2028PROJ	38	MLBATL	30	0	32	4.77	5.00	19.8%	9.3%	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.3 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2023

K%56

xwOBA vs47

FB Velo10

CompsHeriberto Ruelas (age 35) · Hisanori Takahashi (age 37) · Brian Shouse (age 37)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 99107vR 115

ERA4.44

FIP4.56

K%20.9%

BB%8.6%

K-BB%12.3%

Proj IP50

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 50 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL4545

CMD4545

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1090.5

Whiff%

p7028.5%

p5623.3%

xwOBA vs

p470.315

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2014	24	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	15	0	12	50	15	3	0	0%	0.8	30.0%	6.0%	24.0%	0.0%	0.73	1.33	+0.5
2014	24	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	15	0	12	50	15	3	0	0%	0.8	30.0%	6.0%	24.0%	0.0%	0.73	1.40	+0.5
2015	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	60	0	61	262	64	32	10	0%	1.0	25.5%	12.4%	13.1%	3.7%	2.97	4.56	-0.0
2015	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	60	0	61	262	64	32	10	0%	1.0	24.4%	12.2%	12.2%	3.8%	2.97	4.72	-0.1
2016	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	1	50	202	53	20	9	2%	1.0	25.0%	10.1%	15.0%	4.3%	3.99	4.60	-0.0
2016	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	50	1	50	202	53	20	9	2%	1.0	26.2%	9.9%	16.3%	4.5%	3.99	4.53	+0.0
2017	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	0	57	241	77	25	8	0%	1.1	29.3%	11.1%	18.2%	3.8%	3.34	4.11	+0.3
2017	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	53	0	57	241	77	25	8	0%	1.1	32.0%	10.4%	21.6%	3.3%	3.34	3.54	+0.7
2018	28	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	60	0	53	235	62	27	11	0%	0.9	26.4%	11.5%	14.9%	5.0%	3.93	5.09	-0.3
2018	28	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	60	0	53	235	62	27	11	0%	0.9	26.4%	11.5%	14.9%	4.7%	3.93	5.00	-0.3
2019	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	0	62	255	70	27	6	0%	1.1	24.4%	11.1%	13.3%	2.7%	3.63	3.95	+0.4
2019	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	54	0	62	255	70	27	6	0%	1.1	27.5%	10.6%	16.9%	2.4%	3.63	3.41	+0.8
2020	30	MLB MLE	New York Mets	17	0	25	102	34	12	4	0%	1.5	33.3%	11.8%	21.6%	3.9%	3.96	3.93	+0.2
2020	30	MLB RAW	New York Mets	17	0	25	102	34	12	4	0%	1.5	33.3%	11.8%	21.6%	3.9%	3.96	3.90	+0.2
2021	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	59	0	58	242	48	28	7	0%	1.0	19.1%	11.9%	7.2%	3.2%	3.09	4.76	-0.1
2021	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	59	0	58	242	48	28	7	0%	1.0	19.8%	11.6%	8.3%	2.9%	3.09	4.45	+0.1
2022	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	0	31	131	34	10	6	0%	1.0	25.4%	7.9%	17.5%	5.3%	5.81	4.85	-0.1
2022	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	0	31	131	34	10	6	0%	1.0	26.0%	7.6%	18.3%	4.6%	5.81	4.39	+0.1
2023	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	56	0	49	207	50	15	8	0%	0.9	23.3%	7.3%	16.1%	3.4%	4.44	3.89	+0.4
2023	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	56	0	49	207	50	15	8	0%	0.9	24.2%	7.2%	16.9%	3.9%	4.44	4.11	+0.3
2024	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	35	135	35	12	6	0%	1.1	23.0%	8.2%	14.7%	4.6%	2.55	4.73	-0.1
2024	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	35	135	35	12	6	0%	1.1	23.0%	8.2%	14.7%	4.6%	2.55	4.73	-0.1
2024	34	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	0	35	135	35	12	6	0%	1.1	25.9%	8.9%	17.0%	4.4%	2.55	4.35	+0.1
2025	35	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	5	4	18	79	12	5	3	80%	3.5	13.1%	5.7%	7.4%	4.3%	5.60	5.10	—
2025	35	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	5	4	18	79	12	5	3	80%	3.5	13.1%	5.7%	7.4%	4.3%	5.60	5.10	—
2025	35	AAA RAW	Gwinnett Stripers	5	4	18	79	12	5	3	80%	3.5	15.2%	6.3%	8.9%	3.8%	5.60	4.80	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			368	0	357	1534	387	160	61	0%	1.0	25.2%	10.4%	14.8%	4.0%	3.96	4.50	+0.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	37	MLB	ATL	5	0	5	21	4	2	1	0%	1.0	20.9%	8.6%	12.3%	3.2%	4.44	4.56	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	38	MLB MLE	ATL	31	0	32	136	27	13	5	0%	1.0	19.8%	9.3%	10.4%	3.6%	4.77	5.00	-0.2
2028	38	MLB CTX	ATL	30	0	32	135	27	13	5	0%	1.1	19.8%	9.3%	10.4%	3.6%	4.77	5.00	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		399	0	389	1670	414	173	66	0%	1.0	24.8%	10.3%	14.4%	3.9%	4.02	4.49	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		205	0	200	858	213	89	34	0%	1.0	24.8%	10.3%	14.4%	3.9%	4.02	4.49	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		491	5	510	2141	531	220	82	1%	1.0	24.8%	10.3%	14.5%	3.8%	3.67	4.40	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		193	2	200	840	208	86	32	1%	1.0	24.8%	10.3%	14.5%	3.8%	3.67	4.40	+0.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 18 IPFIP 4.70 → 5.10 (+0.40)K% 15.2% → 13.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.19%	—	×0.860	13.06%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.33%	—	×0.900	5.70%
HR / BF /BF	3.80%	÷0.961	×1.100	4.34%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 92).

Result: FIP 4.70 → 5.10, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 34 IPFIP 4.52 → 4.73 (+0.21)K% 26.7% → 23.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.72%	—	×0.860	22.98%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.16%	—	×0.900	8.24%
HR / BF /BF	4.58%	÷1.096	×1.100	4.60%

Result: FIP 4.52 → 4.73, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 60 IPFIP 3.44 → 3.95 (+0.51)K% 27.8% → 24.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.76%	—	×0.880	24.42%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.61%	—	×1.050	11.14%
HR / BF /BF	2.45%	÷0.982	×1.100	2.74%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 96).

Result: FIP 3.44 → 3.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 11 IPFIP 0.25 → 0.74 (+0.49)K% 44.2% → 38.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	44.19%	—	×0.880	38.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.98%	—	×1.050	7.33%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.247	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 0.25 → 0.74, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 17 IPFIP 2.68 → 3.18 (+0.51)K% 33.3% → 29.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.880	29.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.67%	—	×1.050	12.25%
HR / BF /BF	1.67%	÷0.996	×1.100	1.84%

Result: FIP 2.68 → 3.18, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chasen Shreve (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.56	20.9%	8.6%	3.2%	—	5.00	19.8%	10.4%	32	+0.44	—	—	—
Heriberto Ruelas L 2017 · 3.42 FIP	35	SU	3.42	17.2%	6.7%	1.7%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.95	117	76
Hisanori Takahashi L 2012 · 4.04 FIP	37	SU	4.04	24.5%	6.1%	4.1%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	240	65
Brian Shouse L 2006 · 4.19 FIP	37	SU	4.19	13.2%	7.5%	2.3%	.269	3.37	15.3%	11.0%	127	-0.82	2.32	339	64
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	39
Juan Sandoval R 2017 · 3.42 FIP	36	SU	3.42	16.7%	7.2%	1.5%	.298	5.41	15.9%	8.7%	57	+1.99	3.24	225	39
Rudy Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	36	SU	4.72	15.8%	7.1%	3.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	119	37
Scott Atchison R 2013 · 3.80 FIP	37	SU	3.80	14.4%	6.2%	2.1%	.273	3.60	16.7%	12.9%	92	-0.20	2.52	340	36
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	34
Chris Nichting R 2002 · 4.67 FIP	36	SU	4.67	16.6%	3.3%	4.6%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	103	34
Salvador Valdez R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	36	SW	4.30	17.1%	8.2%	2.9%	.405	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	326	33
Pete Walker R 2006 · 4.45 FIP	37	SU	4.45	19.6%	8.0%	3.6%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	4.45	327	33
Hector Navarro R 2017 · 3.53 FIP	37	SU	3.53	11.5%	5.6%	1.3%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	2.30	126	32
Matt Bush R 2023 · 3.79 FIP	37	SU	3.79	26.2%	8.7%	3.3%	.225	—	—	—	—	—	2.87	249	31
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	3.93	194	31
Yoshihisa Hirano R 2020 · 5.02 FIP	36	SU	5.02	17.5%	12.7%	3.3%	.381	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	132	31
Brian Sweeney R 2010 · 4.63 FIP	36	SU	4.63	9.5%	3.4%	3.5%	.226	—	—	—	—	—	3.03	108	29
Seunghwan Oh R 2019 · 5.75 FIP	37	SU	5.75	18.2%	6.8%	6.0%	.383	—	—	—	—	—	1.87	226	28
Tony Pena Jr. R 2017 · 3.43 FIP	36	SU	3.43	10.9%	4.3%	1.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	128	28
Jonathan Castellanos R 2019 · 5.24 FIP	37	SW	5.24	11.0%	9.0%	3.5%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	394	16
Logan Duran R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	37	SP-	3.66	15.5%	8.9%	1.4%	.427	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	187	11

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	44	24.3%	10.5%	1.50	4.07
Tony Sipp ('19)	2.5	46	25.2%	10.5%	1.32	3.72
Dominic Leone ('24)	2.1	54	23.9%	10.4%	1.26	3.94
Heath Hembree ('23)	1.8	51	25.4%	9.4%	1.67	4.37
Ed Nunez ('82-'94, 2 WAR*)	3.3	54	24.5%*	9.5%*	1.24*	4.37*
Alberto Reyes ('95-'08, 5 WAR*)	2.1	54	27.1%*	10.2%*	1.18*	3.66*
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*