Matt Bush — OGILVIE

Matt Bush P Frisco RoughRiders

Age 40 RHP 5'10" / 193 lbs AA peak 0.2 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111103vR 95

ERA4.15

FIP4.11

K%25.4%

BB%9.1%

K-BB%16.3%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 4 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL4545

CMD5555

K†6060

SL-1.5

FB-3.0

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	70	0	79	306	79	18	6	0%	1.1	24.7%	6.0%	18.7%	2.0%	2.52	2.87	+1.6
2016	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	70	0	79	306	79	18	6	0%	1.1	25.8%	5.9%	19.9%	2.0%	2.52	2.77	+1.7
2017	31	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	57	0	52	240	58	19	7	0%	0.9	24.2%	7.9%	16.2%	2.8%	3.78	3.60	+0.6
2017	31	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	57	0	52	240	58	19	7	0%	0.9	24.2%	7.9%	16.2%	2.9%	3.78	3.71	+0.5
2018	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	0	32	148	33	18	3	0%	1.1	17.6%	13.0%	4.6%	2.7%	3.94	4.72	-0.1
2018	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	0	32	148	33	18	3	0%	1.1	22.3%	12.2%	10.1%	2.0%	3.94	3.94	+0.2
2019	33	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	9	0	9	31	7	2	1	0%	1.0	22.6%	6.5%	16.1%	3.2%	1.04	3.78	—
2019	33	AA RAW	Frisco RoughRiders	9	0	9	31	7	2	1	0%	1.0	22.6%	6.5%	16.1%	3.2%	1.04	3.68	—
2021	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	0	7	32	8	5	3	0%	0.9	25.0%	15.6%	9.4%	9.4%	3.86	8.11	-0.3
2021	35	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	0	7	32	8	5	3	0%	0.9	25.0%	15.6%	9.4%	9.4%	3.86	8.53	-0.3
2022	36	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	65	6	60	244	74	16	11	9%	0.9	30.3%	6.6%	23.8%	4.3%	3.47	3.73	+0.6
2022	36	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	65	6	60	244	74	16	11	9%	0.9	30.3%	6.6%	23.8%	4.5%	3.47	3.82	+0.5
2023	37	MIX MLE	3 levels	42	3	46	188	54	18	9	7%	1.1	25.8%	8.7%	17.1%	3.3%	3.91	3.83	+0.4
2023	37	MIX MLE	3 levels	42	3	46	188	54	18	9	7%	1.1	25.8%	8.7%	17.1%	3.3%	3.91	3.83	+0.4
2023	37	MIX RAW	3 levels	42	3	46	188	54	18	9	7%	1.1	28.7%	9.6%	19.1%	4.8%	3.91	4.47	+0.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			217	6	211	900	227	70	33	3%	1.0	25.2%	7.8%	17.4%	3.7%	3.75	3.98	+1.4
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	40	MLB	MIL	4	0	4	17	4	2	0	0%	1.0	25.4%	9.1%	16.3%	3.0%	4.15	4.11	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	41	MLB MLE	MIL	39	0	41	172	42	17	6	0%	1.0	24.2%	9.8%	14.4%	3.4%	4.39	4.54	+0.0
2027	41	MLB CTX	MIL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	24.2%	9.8%	14.4%	3.4%	4.39	4.54	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		217	6	211	900	227	70	33	3%	1.0	25.2%	7.8%	17.4%	3.7%	3.75	3.97	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		206	6	200	853	215	66	31	3%	1.0	25.2%	7.8%	17.4%	3.7%	3.75	3.97	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		280	9	284	1189	297	96	37	3%	1.0	25.0%	8.1%	16.9%	3.1%	3.32	3.74	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		197	6	200	836	209	68	26	3%	1.0	25.0%	8.1%	16.9%	3.1%	3.32	3.74	+1.1

	Profile at Match Age	Next 3 Yrs	Career
Matt Bush (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.11	25.4%	9.1%	3.0%	—	4.54	24.2%	14.4%	41	+0.43	—	—	—
Joaquín Benoit R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	40	SU	4.48	21.6%	9.9%	3.5%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	164	79
Manny Acosta R 2019 · 3.08 FIP	38	SU	3.08	23.2%	13.3%	0.5%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	102	68
Gaudencio Aguirre R 2015 · 3.25 FIP	42	SU	3.25	14.8%	8.6%	0.6%	.293	3.88	14.9%	6.8%	75	+0.63	3.25	123	60
Luis Ayala R 2017 · 4.00 FIP	39	SU	4.00	15.9%	11.7%	1.4%	.340	—	—	—	—	—	3.03	119	55
Peter Moylan R 2018 · 4.77 FIP	39	SU	4.77	17.8%	11.6%	3.1%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	174	53
Erubiel Gonzalez R 2017 · 3.51 FIP	38	SU	3.51	13.3%	2.5%	2.2%	.388	—	—	—	—	—	2.99	119	52
Ryan Vogelsong R 2016 · 4.79 FIP	39	SP-	4.79	16.7%	10.4%	3.2%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	4.45	217	26
Horacio Ramirez L 2019 · 4.65 FIP	39	SU	4.65	5.7%	6.0%	2.3%	.233	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	199	18
Juan Antonio Pena L 2019 · 4.56 FIP	41	SW	4.56	13.7%	14.1%	1.5%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	149	16

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	44	24.8%	9.4%	1.22	4.26
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Colin Poche ('24)	1.0	52	27.0%	9.2%	1.34	3.63
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Matt Bush (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.11	25.4%	9.1%	3.0%	—	4.54	24.2%	14.4%	41	+0.43	—	—	—
Joaquín Benoit R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	40	SU	4.48	21.6%	9.9%	3.5%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	164	79
Manny Acosta R 2019 · 3.08 FIP	38	SU	3.08	23.2%	13.3%	0.5%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	102	68
Gaudencio Aguirre R 2015 · 3.25 FIP	42	SU	3.25	14.8%	8.6%	0.6%	.293	3.88	14.9%	6.8%	75	+0.63	3.25	123	60
Luis Ayala R 2017 · 4.00 FIP	39	SU	4.00	15.9%	11.7%	1.4%	.340	—	—	—	—	—	3.03	119	55
Peter Moylan R 2018 · 4.77 FIP	39	SU	4.77	17.8%	11.6%	3.1%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	174	53
Erubiel Gonzalez R 2017 · 3.51 FIP	38	SU	3.51	13.3%	2.5%	2.2%	.388	—	—	—	—	—	2.99	119	52
Ryan Vogelsong R 2016 · 4.79 FIP	39	SP-	4.79	16.7%	10.4%	3.2%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	4.45	217	26
Horacio Ramirez L 2019 · 4.65 FIP	39	SU	4.65	5.7%	6.0%	2.3%	.233	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	199	18
Juan Antonio Pena L 2019 · 4.56 FIP	41	SW	4.56	13.7%	14.1%	1.5%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	149	16

Contract

Career Stats + Projections

Career Path Comps

Career Comps