Matt Bush
P
Frisco RoughRiders
+0.3
WAR
Age 40
RHP
5'10" / 193 lbs
AA
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA4.29
FIP4.29
xFIP4.98
SIERA4.85
K%23.7%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%14.5%
IP24
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
STUF5555
CTRL4545
CMD5555
K†6060
SL-1.5
FB-3.0
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 30 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 70 | 0 | 79 | 306 | 79 | 18 | 6 | 24.7% | 6.0% | 2.0% | 2.52 | 2.88 | +2.0 |
| 2017 | 31 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 57 | 0 | 52 | 240 | 58 | 19 | 7 | 24.2% | 7.9% | 2.9% | 3.78 | 3.65 | +0.8 |
| 2018 | 32 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 29 | 0 | 32 | 148 | 33 | 18 | 3 | 17.6% | 13.0% | 2.5% | 3.94 | 4.65 | +0.1 |
| 2019 | 33 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | 9 | 0 | 9 | 31 | 7 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | 1.04 | — | — |
| 2021 | 35 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 8 | 0 | 7 | 32 | 8 | 5 | 3 | — | — | — | 3.86 | — | — |
| 2022 | 36 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 65 | 6 | 60 | 244 | 74 | 16 | 11 | 30.3% | 6.6% | 4.0% | 3.47 | 3.58 | +0.9 |
| 2023 | 37 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 42 | 3 | 46 | 188 | 54 | 18 | 9 | 26.6% | 9.3% | 3.3% | 3.91 | 3.83 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 40 | MLB | MIL | 24 | — | 24 | 102 | 27 | 9 | 3 | 26.5% | 9.1% | 3.0% | 4.15 | 4.02 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 41 | MLB | MIL | 22 | — | 22 | 94 | 24 | 9 | 3 | 25.6% | 9.4% | 3.1% | 4.19 | 4.21 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 280 | 9 | 284 | 1189 | 299 | 97 | 37 | 25.1% | 8.2% | 3.1% | 3.32 | 3.72 | +5.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 197 | 6 | 200 | 836 | 210 | 68 | 26 | 25.1% | 8.2% | 3.1% | 3.32 | 3.72 | +3.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Matt Bush (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.02 | 26.5% | 9.1% | 3.0% | — | 4.21 | 25.6% | 16.2% | 22 | +0.19 | — | — | — |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 40 | SW | 4.46 | 21.6% | 9.9% | 3.5% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 164 | 76 |
| Jose Contreras R 2029 · 3.54 FIP | 43 | SW | 3.54 | 20.2% | 8.3% | 2.0% | .263 | 2.98 | 20.5% | 13.4% | 57 | -0.56 | 2.98 | 111 | 72 |
| Manny Acosta R 2024 · 3.07 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.07 | 23.2% | 13.3% | 0.4% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.07 | 102 | 66 |
| Gaudencio Aguirre R 2028 · 3.26 FIP | 42 | SU | 3.26 | 14.8% | 8.6% | 0.6% | .293 | 3.88 | 14.9% | 6.8% | 75 | +0.62 | 3.26 | 123 | 56 |
| Luis Ayala R 2025 · 3.97 FIP | 39 | SU | 3.97 | 15.9% | 11.7% | 1.3% | .340 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 119 | 53 |
| Peter Moylan R 2025 · 4.94 FIP | 39 | SU | 4.94 | 17.8% | 11.6% | 3.4% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 174 | 53 |
| Erubiel Gonzalez R 2024 · 3.48 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.48 | 13.3% | 2.5% | 2.2% | .388 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.00 | 119 | 50 |
| Lorenzo Barcelo R 2024 · 3.38 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.38 | 12.8% | 1.1% | 2.2% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 199 | 44 |
| Ryan Vogelsong R 2025 · 4.88 FIP | 39 | SP- | 4.88 | 16.7% | 10.4% | 3.4% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.44 | 217 | 33 |
| Francisco Campos R 2028 · 4.76 FIP | 42 | SP- | 4.76 | 11.5% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .303 | 4.00 | 12.2% | 7.0% | 197 | -0.76 | 3.95 | 332 | 28 |
| Sergio Mitre R 2024 · 4.54 FIP | 38 | SP- | 4.54 | 11.8% | 6.5% | 2.9% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.54 | 156 | 25 |
| Rich Hill L 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 40 | SU | 3.92 | 19.9% | 10.9% | 2.0% | .238 | 4.13 | 21.0% | 12.9% | 429 | +0.21 | 2.10 | 1,030 | 24 |
| Juan Antonio Pena L 2027 · 4.55 FIP | 41 | SU | 4.55 | 13.7% | 14.1% | 1.5% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17 | 149 | 20 |
| Tim Hudson R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 40 | SP- | 4.40 | 12.2% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.40 | 124 | 19 |
| Walter Silva R 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 40 | SP- | 3.67 | 10.4% | 7.6% | 0.9% | .292 | 4.99 | 9.7% | 0.9% | 118 | +1.32 | 3.67 | 428 | 19 |
| Horacio Ramirez L 2025 · 4.64 FIP | 39 | SU | 4.64 | 5.7% | 6.0% | 2.3% | .233 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 199 | 15 |
| Mauricio Lara L 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 40 | SP- | 4.93 | 12.3% | 6.8% | 3.7% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.59 | 444 | 9 |
| Yasutomo Kubo R 2024 · 3.94 FIP | 38 | SP | 3.94 | 20.4% | 4.7% | 3.6% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.94 | 152 | 0 |
| Pablo Ortega R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 40 | SP | 4.38 | 13.4% | 6.0% | 3.0% | .298 | 5.22 | 12.4% | 4.2% | 14 | +0.84 | 4.03 | 375 | 0 |
| Brad Penny R 2023 · 3.75 FIP | 37 | SP | 3.75 | 12.0% | 5.8% | 1.7% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.75 | 135 | 0 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.