Grades · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 70 | 0 | 79 | 306 | 79 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.7% | 6.0% | 18.7% | 2.0% | 2.52 | 2.86 | +1.9 |
| 2016 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 70 | 0 | 79 | 306 | 79 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.8% | 5.9% | 19.9% | 2.0% | 2.52 | 2.77 | +2.0 |
| 2017 | 31 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 57 | 0 | 52 | 240 | 58 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 0.9 | 24.2% | 7.9% | 16.2% | 2.8% | 3.78 | 3.62 | +0.6 |
| 2017 | 31 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 57 | 0 | 52 | 240 | 58 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 0.9 | 24.2% | 7.9% | 16.2% | 2.9% | 3.78 | 3.71 | +0.5 |
| 2018 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 0 | 32 | 148 | 33 | 18 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.6% | 13.0% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 3.94 | 4.74 | -0.1 |
| 2018 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 0 | 32 | 148 | 33 | 18 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 12.2% | 10.1% | 2.0% | 3.94 | 3.94 | +0.2 |
| 2019 | 33 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | 9 | 0 | 9 | 31 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.6% | 6.5% | 16.1% | 3.2% | 1.04 | 3.78 | — |
| 2019 | 33 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | 9 | 0 | 9 | 31 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.6% | 6.5% | 16.1% | 3.2% | 1.04 | 3.68 | — |
| 2021 | 35 | MIX | 2 levels | 8 | 0 | 7 | 32 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0% | 0.9 | 25.0% | 15.6% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 3.86 | 8.11 | -0.3 |
| 2021 | 35 | MIX | 2 levels | 8 | 0 | 7 | 32 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0% | 0.9 | 25.0% | 15.6% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 3.86 | 8.53 | -0.3 |
| 2022 | 36 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 65 | 6 | 60 | 244 | 74 | 16 | 11 | 9% | 0.9 | 30.3% | 6.6% | 23.8% | 4.7% | 3.47 | 3.95 | +0.4 |
| 2022 | 36 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 65 | 6 | 60 | 244 | 74 | 16 | 11 | 9% | 0.9 | 30.3% | 6.6% | 23.8% | 4.5% | 3.47 | 3.82 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 37 | MIX | 3 levels | 42 | 3 | 46 | 188 | 54 | 18 | 9 | 7% | 1.1 | 26.6% | 9.3% | 17.3% | 3.3% | 3.91 | 3.83 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 37 | MIX | 3 levels | 42 | 3 | 46 | 188 | 54 | 18 | 9 | 7% | 1.1 | 28.7% | 9.6% | 19.1% | 4.8% | 3.91 | 4.47 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 40 | MLB | MIL | 45 | 0 | 47 | 200 | 51 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.4% | 9.1% | 16.3% | 3.0% | 4.15 | 4.11 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 41 | MLB | MIL | 39 | 0 | 41 | 172 | 42 | 17 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.3% | 9.8% | 14.5% | 3.4% | 4.39 | 4.54 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 41 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 24.3% | 9.8% | 14.5% | 3.4% | 4.39 | 4.54 | — |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 217 | 6 | 211 | 900 | 227 | 70 | 33 | 3% | 1.0 | 25.2% | 7.8% | 17.4% | 3.7% | 3.75 | 3.97 | +3.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 206 | 6 | 200 | 853 | 215 | 66 | 31 | 3% | 1.0 | 25.2% | 7.8% | 17.4% | 3.7% | 3.75 | 3.97 | +3.3 | ||
| Career | — | 280 | 9 | 284 | 1189 | 299 | 97 | 38 | 3% | 1.0 | 25.1% | 8.2% | 17.0% | 3.2% | 3.32 | 3.79 | +5.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 197 | 6 | 200 | 836 | 210 | 68 | 27 | 3% | 1.0 | 25.1% | 8.2% | 17.0% | 3.2% | 3.32 | 3.79 | +3.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Matt Bush (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.11 | 25.4% | 9.1% | 3.0% | — | 4.54 | 24.3% | 14.5% | 41 | +0.43 | — | — | — |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 40 | SU | 4.35 | 21.6% | 9.9% | 3.3% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.72 | 164 | 83 |
| Manny Acosta R 2024 · 3.04 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.04 | 23.2% | 13.3% | 0.4% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.04 | 102 | 68 |
| Gaudencio Aguirre R 2028 · 3.31 FIP | 42 | SU | 3.31 | 14.8% | 8.6% | 0.7% | .293 | 3.98 | 14.9% | 6.8% | 75 | +0.67 | 3.31 | 123 | 60 |
| Luis Ayala R 2025 · 3.94 FIP | 39 | SU | 3.94 | 15.9% | 11.7% | 1.3% | .340 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.99 | 119 | 54 |
| Peter Moylan R 2025 · 4.77 FIP | 39 | SU | 4.77 | 17.8% | 11.6% | 3.1% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 174 | 54 |
| Erubiel Gonzalez R 2024 · 3.66 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.66 | 13.3% | 2.5% | 2.5% | .388 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 119 | 52 |
| Ryan Vogelsong R 2025 · 4.67 FIP | 39 | SP- | 4.67 | 16.7% | 10.4% | 3.0% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.46 | 217 | 27 |
| Horacio Ramirez L 2025 · 4.62 FIP | 39 | SU | 4.62 | 5.7% | 6.0% | 2.2% | .233 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 199 | 18 |
| Juan Antonio Pena L 2027 · 4.46 FIP | 41 | SW | 4.46 | 13.7% | 14.1% | 1.3% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 149 | 16 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 44 | 24.9% | 9.5% | 1.22 | 4.26 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Colin Poche ('24) | 4 | 52 | 27.0% | 9.2% | 1.34 | 3.63 |
| Zach McAllister ('18) | 4 | 57 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 3.63 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |