Heath Hembree — OGILVIE

Heath Hembree P Everett AquaSox

Age 37 RHP 6'4" / 220 lbs A+ peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.36

FIP4.38

K%23.5%

BB%9.3%

K-BB%14.2%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 4 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4040

CMD5555

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4594.2

Whiff%

p1018.3%

p1015.9%

xwOBA vs

p100.408

SL+1.0

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	52	1	58	239	47	17	6	2%	1.1	18.4%	7.5%	11.0%	2.7%	2.79	3.95	+0.4
2015	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	52	1	58	239	47	17	6	2%	1.1	19.7%	7.1%	12.6%	2.5%	2.79	3.70	+0.6
2016	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	0	64	272	69	19	6	0%	1.3	21.1%	7.2%	13.9%	2.8%	2.24	3.74	+0.6
2016	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	51	0	64	272	69	19	6	0%	1.3	25.4%	7.0%	18.4%	2.2%	2.24	3.05	+1.2
2017	28	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	62	0	62	271	70	18	10	0%	1.0	25.8%	6.6%	19.2%	3.8%	3.63	3.84	+0.5
2017	28	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	62	0	62	271	70	18	10	0%	1.0	25.8%	6.6%	19.2%	3.7%	3.63	3.81	+0.5
2018	29	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	67	0	60	260	76	26	10	0%	0.9	29.2%	10.0%	19.2%	3.9%	4.20	4.06	+0.3
2018	29	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	67	0	60	260	76	26	10	0%	0.9	29.2%	10.0%	19.2%	3.8%	4.20	4.03	+0.4
2019	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	41	177	48	16	7	0%	0.9	26.6%	9.2%	17.3%	4.1%	3.76	4.30	+0.1
2019	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	0	41	177	48	16	7	0%	0.9	27.1%	9.0%	18.1%	4.0%	3.76	4.16	+0.2
2020	31	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	22	0	19	90	20	8	9	0%	0.9	22.2%	8.9%	13.3%	9.3%	9.00	7.47	-0.6
2020	31	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	22	0	19	90	20	8	9	0%	0.9	22.2%	8.9%	13.3%	10.0%	9.00	8.42	-0.9
2021	32	MLB MLE	New York Mets	60	0	58	243	83	23	12	0%	1.0	34.2%	9.5%	24.7%	5.0%	5.59	4.13	+0.3
2021	32	MLB RAW	New York Mets	60	0	58	243	83	23	12	0%	1.0	34.2%	9.5%	24.7%	4.9%	5.59	4.12	+0.3
2022	33	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	0	35	163	38	20	9	0%	0.9	15.9%	14.0%	1.9%	5.4%	6.62	6.49	-0.8
2022	33	MIX RAW	3 levels	40	0	35	163	38	20	9	0%	0.9	23.3%	12.3%	11.0%	5.5%	6.62	5.96	-0.6
2023	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	0	14	61	16	7	0	0%	1.0	20.4%	9.5%	10.9%	0.0%	1.88	2.58	+0.3
2023	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	0	14	61	16	7	0	0%	1.0	20.4%	9.5%	10.9%	0.0%	1.88	2.58	+0.3
2023	34	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	0	14	61	16	7	0	0%	1.0	26.2%	11.5%	14.8%	0.0%	1.88	2.33	+0.4
2024	35	MIX MLE	3 levels	9	3	8	38	14	5	2	33%	0.9	36.8%	13.2%	23.7%	5.3%	4.32	4.54	—
2024	35	MIX MLE	3 levels	9	3	8	38	14	5	2	33%	0.9	36.8%	13.2%	23.7%	5.3%	4.32	4.54	—
2024	35	MIX RAW	3 levels	9	3	8	38	14	5	2	33%	0.9	36.8%	13.2%	23.7%	5.3%	4.32	4.66	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			343	0	338	1477	376	130	65	0%	1.0	25.5%	8.8%	16.7%	4.4%	4.47	4.53	+0.1
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	37	MLB	SEA	4	0	4	17	4	2	1	0%	1.0	23.5%	9.3%	14.2%	3.1%	4.36	4.38	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	38	MLB MLE	SEA	41	0	43	182	41	18	6	0%	1.0	22.3%	10.0%	12.4%	3.6%	4.63	4.81	-0.1
2027	38	MLB CTX	SEA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.3%	10.0%	12.4%	3.6%	4.63	4.81	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		343	0	338	1477	376	130	65	0%	1.0	25.5%	8.8%	16.7%	4.4%	4.47	4.48	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		203	0	200	873	222	77	38	0%	1.0	25.5%	8.8%	16.7%	4.4%	4.47	4.48	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		424	4	420	1814	450	162	73	1%	1.0	24.8%	9.0%	15.8%	4.0%	4.11	4.35	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		202	2	200	864	214	77	35	1%	1.0	24.8%	9.0%	15.8%	4.0%	4.11	4.35	-0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Heath Hembree (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.38	23.5%	9.3%	3.1%	—	4.81	22.3%	12.4%	43	+0.43	—	—	—
Fernando Rodney R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	38	SU	4.37	20.9%	9.4%	3.4%	.272	3.37	26.2%	15.2%	185	-1.00	2.69	295	83
Santiago Casilla R 2017 · 4.13 FIP	37	SU	4.13	22.0%	8.1%	3.4%	.289	4.14	16.8%	1.6%	44	+0.01	3.50	219	80
Joaquín Benoit R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	38	SU	3.58	24.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.179	4.11	23.5%	12.9%	98	+0.53	3.58	164	79
Jean Machi R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	35	SU	4.12	18.6%	6.6%	3.2%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	186	74
Dustin McGowan R 2017 · 4.58 FIP	35	SU	4.58	19.4%	6.7%	4.2%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	208	74
Juan Sandoval R 2017 · 3.42 FIP	36	SU	3.42	16.7%	7.2%	1.5%	.298	5.41	15.9%	8.7%	57	+1.99	3.24	225	72
Ryan Madson R 2018 · 3.49 FIP	37	SU	3.49	23.4%	6.1%	2.9%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	1.42	240	71
Matt Belisle R 2017 · 3.62 FIP	37	SU	3.62	21.9%	6.5%	2.8%	.241	4.60	15.4%	9.2%	34	+0.98	2.51	174	71
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	4.15	145	70
Matt Bush R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	37	SU	3.83	25.8%	8.7%	3.3%	.225	—	—	—	—	—	2.87	249	68
Rudy Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	36	SU	4.72	15.8%	7.1%	3.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	119	67
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	65
Jason Motte R 2017 · 5.16 FIP	35	SU	5.16	16.3%	11.4%	3.6%	.193	—	—	—	—	—	3.18	113	64
Ramon E Ramirez R 2017 · 3.49 FIP	35	SU	3.49	14.0%	5.8%	1.5%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	2.37	140	64
Logan Kensing R 2017 · 3.28 FIP	35	SU	3.28	16.5%	7.9%	1.0%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	2.73	172	63
Peter Moylan R 2016 · 3.59 FIP	37	SU	3.59	17.7%	7.9%	1.8%	.263	4.00	18.5%	8.6%	88	+0.41	3.11	174	62
Salvador Valdez R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	36	SW	4.30	17.1%	8.2%	2.9%	.405	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	326	61
Ronald Belisario R 2019 · 4.16 FIP	36	SU	4.16	12.7%	3.9%	3.0%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	2.10	126	61
Joe Blanton R 2017 · 4.94 FIP	36	SU	4.94	20.0%	5.6%	5.1%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	240	59
Yoshihisa Hirano R 2020 · 5.02 FIP	36	SU	5.02	17.5%	12.7%	3.3%	.381	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	132	56

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.5	46	23.0%	9.6%	1.29	4.48
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Colin Poche ('24)	1.0	52	27.0%	9.2%	1.34	3.63
Félix Peña ('20)	1.2	62	23.6%	8.3%	1.37	4.46
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33