Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 40 | 0 | 52 | 233 | 45 | 23 | 4 | 0% | 1.3 | 16.6% | 10.0% | 6.6% | 1.5% | 5.88 | 3.80 | +0.5 |
| 2015 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 40 | 0 | 52 | 233 | 45 | 23 | 4 | 0% | 1.3 | 19.3% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 1.7% | 5.88 | 3.70 | +0.5 |
| 2016 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 58 | 0 | 62 | 268 | 59 | 19 | 11 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.4% | 7.2% | 13.2% | 3.9% | 4.65 | 4.43 | +0.1 |
| 2016 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 58 | 0 | 62 | 268 | 59 | 19 | 11 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.0% | 7.1% | 14.9% | 4.1% | 4.65 | 4.42 | +0.1 |
| 2017 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 69 | 0 | 74 | 295 | 85 | 21 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.0% | 7.2% | 21.9% | 2.2% | 2.66 | 2.74 | +1.8 |
| 2017 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 69 | 0 | 74 | 295 | 85 | 21 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.8% | 7.1% | 21.7% | 2.0% | 2.66 | 2.71 | +1.9 |
| 2018 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 34 | 155 | 33 | 11 | 6 | 0% | 0.9 | 24.5% | 4.7% | 19.8% | 2.8% | 5.29 | 3.19 | +0.5 |
| 2018 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 34 | 155 | 33 | 11 | 6 | 0% | 0.9 | 21.3% | 7.1% | 14.2% | 3.9% | 5.29 | 4.42 | +0.1 |
| 2019 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 63 | 0 | 72 | 310 | 88 | 34 | 12 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.8% | 11.2% | 15.6% | 4.0% | 4.35 | 4.47 | +0.3 |
| 2019 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 63 | 0 | 72 | 310 | 88 | 34 | 12 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.4% | 11.0% | 17.4% | 3.9% | 4.35 | 4.23 | +0.5 |
| 2020 | 28 | MLB | Cleveland Indians | 12 | 0 | 10 | 47 | 16 | 5 | 3 | 0% | 0.8 | 34.0% | 10.6% | 23.4% | 6.4% | 8.38 | 5.08 | -0.1 |
| 2020 | 28 | MLB | Cleveland Indians | 12 | 0 | 10 | 47 | 16 | 5 | 3 | 0% | 0.8 | 34.0% | 10.6% | 23.4% | 6.4% | 8.38 | 5.38 | -0.1 |
| 2021 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 64 | 5 | 63 | 253 | 66 | 24 | 2 | 8% | 1.0 | 22.8% | 9.6% | 13.2% | 1.0% | 1.44 | 2.93 | +1.2 |
| 2021 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 64 | 5 | 63 | 253 | 66 | 24 | 2 | 8% | 1.0 | 26.1% | 9.5% | 16.6% | 0.8% | 1.44 | 2.56 | +1.5 |
| 2022 | 30 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 55 | 0 | 49 | 222 | 52 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 0.9 | 23.4% | 8.6% | 14.9% | 2.9% | 4.01 | 3.82 | +0.4 |
| 2022 | 30 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 55 | 0 | 49 | 222 | 52 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 0.9 | 23.4% | 8.6% | 14.9% | 2.7% | 4.01 | 3.73 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 59 | 0 | 65 | 282 | 69 | 26 | 15 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 12.3% | 6.3% | 4.13 | 5.95 | -1.0 |
| 2023 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 59 | 0 | 65 | 282 | 69 | 26 | 15 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.5% | 9.2% | 15.2% | 5.3% | 4.13 | 5.17 | -0.4 |
| 2024 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 0 | 23 | 106 | 24 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 0.9 | 19.1% | 14.6% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 6.26 | 5.72 | -0.3 |
| 2024 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 0 | 23 | 106 | 24 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 0.9 | 22.6% | 12.3% | 10.4% | 3.8% | 6.26 | 4.97 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 34 | MLB | CWS | 50 | 0 | 52 | 221 | 53 | 24 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.8% | 10.7% | 13.2% | 3.5% | 4.75 | 4.75 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | CWS | 45 | 0 | 47 | 198 | 45 | 22 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 11.2% | 11.6% | 3.8% | 4.95 | 5.08 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 36 | MLB | CWS | 40 | 0 | 42 | 175 | 38 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.9% | 11.8% | 10.0% | 4.2% | 5.25 | 5.45 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | CWS | 45 | 0 | 47 | 198 | 45 | 22 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 11.2% | 11.6% | 3.8% | 4.95 | 5.08 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 36 | MLB | CWS | 40 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 39 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.9% | 11.8% | 10.0% | 4.2% | 5.25 | 5.45 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 454 | 4 | 451 | 1955 | 458 | 189 | 71 | 1% | 1.0 | 23.4% | 9.7% | 13.7% | 3.6% | 4.43 | 4.34 | +5.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 201 | 2 | 200 | 867 | 203 | 84 | 31 | 1% | 1.0 | 23.4% | 9.7% | 13.7% | 3.6% | 4.43 | 4.34 | +2.5 | ||
| Career | — | 486 | 5 | 505 | 2171 | 511 | 200 | 72 | 1% | 1.0 | 23.5% | 9.2% | 14.3% | 3.3% | 4.10 | 4.09 | +7.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 193 | 2 | 200 | 860 | 202 | 79 | 28 | 1% | 1.0 | 23.5% | 9.2% | 14.3% | 3.3% | 4.10 | 4.09 | +3.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Dominic Leone (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.75 | 23.8% | 10.7% | 3.5% | — | 5.25 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 88 | +0.50 | — | — | — |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2025 · 4.99 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.99 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 122 | 83 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.83 | 22.6% | 9.3% | 2.6% | .230 | 4.59 | 19.4% | 12.7% | 78 | +0.76 | 3.83 | 208 | 83 |
| Jim Johnson R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.89 | 23.8% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .309 | 4.58 | 16.8% | 9.0% | 63 | +0.69 | 2.51 | 251 | 82 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2024 · 4.62 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.62 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.1% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 221 | 78 |
| Mark Serrano R 2025 · 5.21 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.21 | 20.2% | 7.9% | 5.1% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 120 | 78 |
| Manny Acosta R 2027 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 77 |
| Pedro Strop R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.93 | 27.5% | 10.7% | 3.3% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.48 | 277 | 76 |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.82 | 18.6% | 9.4% | 3.8% | .232 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.22 | 187 | 76 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.22 | 18.3% | 6.6% | 3.3% | .282 | 3.92 | 18.6% | 12.0% | 67 | -0.30 | 3.92 | 186 | 75 |
| Josh Lueke R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 4.8% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.50 | 107 | 75 |
| Brad Peacock R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.03 | 23.9% | 10.6% | 2.9% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.88 | 533 | 75 |
| Mark Lowe R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 3.3% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.37 | 153 | 74 |
| Carlos Torres R 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.67 | 17.4% | 9.9% | 3.2% | .304 | 3.59 | 19.8% | 11.6% | 113 | -1.08 | 2.78 | 326 | 74 |
| David Hernandez R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.77 | 26.8% | 8.6% | 3.4% | .380 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.56 | 268 | 73 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2025 · 5.21 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.21 | 18.0% | 9.6% | 4.4% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 176 | 73 |
| Francisco Rodríguez R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.84 | 22.1% | 8.5% | 2.8% | .248 | 7.10 | 19.5% | 11.0% | 25 | +3.26 | 2.85 | 141 | 72 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 5.83 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.83 | 17.9% | 14.2% | 4.5% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.37 | 170 | 71 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2028 · 4.09 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.09 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .267 | 6.61 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.52 | 4.09 | 145 | 71 |
| Jason Motte R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.37 | 22.0% | 6.4% | 4.2% | .306 | 5.16 | 16.3% | 4.9% | 41 | +0.79 | 3.11 | 113 | 71 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.00 | 18.1% | 12.9% | 1.4% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.56 | 147 | 70 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 47 | 22.9% | 11.2% | 1.48 | 4.96 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |