Spencer Patton
P
Las Vegas Aviators
Age 38
RHP
6'1" / 200 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 56 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121112vR 103
ERA4.45
FIP4.51
K%22.2%
BB%10.0%
K-BB%12.2%
ROS IP56
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 56 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1091.3
Whiff%
p1019.1%
K%
p1012.7%
xwOBA vs
p100.394
FB-0.9
SL-2.0
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 53 | 0 | 51 | 223 | 64 | 21 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.8% | 9.6% | 17.1% | 2.5% | 5.12 | 3.46 | +0.7 |
| 2015 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 53 | 0 | 51 | 223 | 64 | 21 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.7% | 9.4% | 19.3% | 2.7% | 5.12 | 3.35 | +0.7 |
| 2016 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 51 | 0 | 57 | 244 | 81 | 29 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 30.3% | 12.2% | 18.1% | 1.2% | 2.51 | 2.74 | +1.2 |
| 2016 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 51 | 0 | 57 | 244 | 81 | 29 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 33.2% | 11.9% | 21.3% | 1.2% | 2.51 | 2.47 | +1.4 |
| 2021 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 53 | 0 | 54 | 217 | 60 | 21 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.9% | 8.7% | 19.2% | 2.3% | 2.98 | 3.09 | +0.9 |
| 2021 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 53 | 0 | 54 | 217 | 60 | 21 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.6% | 9.7% | 18.0% | 1.8% | 2.98 | 3.01 | +1.0 |
| 2022 | 34 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 0 | 36 | 166 | 45 | 20 | 9 | 0% | 1.2 | 25.7% | 13.0% | 12.7% | 7.0% | 5.94 | 6.43 | -0.8 |
| 2022 | 34 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 0 | 36 | 166 | 45 | 20 | 9 | 0% | 1.2 | 27.1% | 12.0% | 15.1% | 5.4% | 5.94 | 5.49 | -0.4 |
| 2023 | 35 | MIX | 2 levels | 56 | 0 | 59 | 265 | 57 | 28 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.2% | 11.0% | 8.2% | 2.9% | 4.76 | 4.44 | +0.1 |
| 2023 | 35 | MIX | 2 levels | 56 | 0 | 59 | 265 | 57 | 28 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.5% | 10.6% | 10.9% | 2.6% | 4.76 | 4.14 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 38 | MLB | OAK | 53 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 52 | 24 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.2% | 10.0% | 12.2% | 3.0% | 4.45 | 4.51 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 39 | MLB | OAK | 46 | 0 | 48 | 204 | 43 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.1% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 3.4% | 4.75 | 4.94 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 40 | MLB | OAK | 40 | 0 | 42 | 175 | 35 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.9% | 11.4% | 8.5% | 3.9% | 5.13 | 5.38 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 41 | MLB | OAK | 34 | 0 | 36 | 151 | 28 | 18 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.8% | 12.1% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 5.54 | 5.81 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 39 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 21.1% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 3.4% | 4.75 | 4.94 | — |
| 2028 | 40 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 19.9% | 11.4% | 8.5% | 3.9% | 5.13 | 5.38 | — |
| 2029 | 41 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 18.8% | 12.1% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 5.54 | 5.81 | — |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 104 | 0 | 107 | 466 | 110 | 49 | 16 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.6% | 10.5% | 13.1% | 3.4% | 5.47 | 4.32 | +1.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 194 | 0 | 200 | 871 | 206 | 92 | 30 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.6% | 10.5% | 13.1% | 3.4% | 5.47 | 4.32 | +2.5 | ||
| Career | — | 244 | 0 | 258 | 1115 | 288 | 121 | 33 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.8% | 10.8% | 15.0% | 2.9% | 4.12 | 3.91 | +4.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 189 | 0 | 200 | 865 | 223 | 94 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.8% | 10.8% | 15.0% | 2.9% | 4.12 | 3.91 | +3.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Spencer Patton (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.51 | 22.2% | 10.0% | 3.0% | — | 5.33 | 20.0% | 8.7% | 125 | +0.82 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Rodney R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.26 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .272 | 3.34 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.92 | 2.67 | 295 | 86 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.73 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 3.0% | .179 | 4.04 | 23.5% | 12.9% | 98 | +0.31 | 3.72 | 164 | 78 |
| Peter Moylan R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.61 | 18.9% | 9.1% | 1.8% | .211 | 4.77 | 17.8% | 6.2% | 28 | +1.16 | 3.10 | 174 | 76 |
| Ryan Madson R 2025 · 3.65 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.65 | 23.4% | 6.1% | 3.2% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.42 | 240 | 74 |
| Ervin Santana R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.38 | 18.8% | 7.6% | 3.5% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | 720 | 72 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2026 · 5.49 FIP | 38 | SU | 5.49 | 15.9% | 7.2% | 5.1% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.17 | 225 | 72 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2024 · 4.56 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.56 | 15.8% | 7.1% | 3.5% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 119 | 70 |
| Zack Segovia R 2024 · 4.36 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.36 | 17.6% | 13.6% | 1.9% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 144 | 70 |
| Matt Belisle R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.59 | 15.4% | 6.2% | 3.7% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 174 | 66 |
| Joe Blanton R 2024 · 4.94 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.94 | 20.0% | 5.6% | 5.1% | .319 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 240 | 64 |
| Ronald Belisario R 2024 · 4.74 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.74 | 12.7% | 3.9% | 4.0% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.10 | 126 | 63 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.08 | 16.8% | 15.2% | 0.9% | .248 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.51 | 219 | 63 |
| Seunghwan Oh R 2025 · 5.30 FIP | 37 | SU | 5.30 | 18.2% | 6.8% | 5.2% | .383 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.81 | 226 | 62 |
| Chien-Ming Wang R 2024 · 4.52 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.52 | 13.0% | 7.8% | 2.8% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 183 | 62 |
| Hector Navarro R 2025 · 3.41 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.41 | 11.5% | 5.6% | 1.0% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 126 | 60 |
| Daniel Bard R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.81 | 20.3% | 19.8% | 1.7% | .224 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.48 | 200 | 59 |
| Erubiel Gonzalez R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.66 | 13.3% | 2.5% | 2.5% | .388 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 119 | 56 |
| Brad Ziegler R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.88 | 16.4% | 6.2% | 2.5% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.61 | 257 | 55 |
| Tony Pena Jr. R 2024 · 3.54 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.54 | 10.9% | 4.3% | 1.5% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.79 | 128 | 53 |
| Chris Young R 2026 · 5.65 FIP | 38 | SU | 5.65 | 14.9% | 8.1% | 5.1% | .374 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.67 | 242 | 50 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 45 | 20.7% | 10.9% | 1.38 | 4.90 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |