Spencer Patton
P
Las Vegas Aviators
+0.2
WAR
Age 38
RHP
6'1" / 200 lbs
AAA
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.70
FIP4.43
xFIP6.80
SIERA6.23
K%22.5%
BB%9.5%
K-BB%13.0%
IP48
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
STUF5555
CTRL4040
CMD5050
K†5050
FB Velo
p1091.3
Whiff%
p1019.1%
K%
p1012.7%
xwOBA vs
p100.394
FB-0.9
SL-2.0
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 27 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 53 | 0 | 51 | 223 | 64 | 21 | 6 | 26.8% | 9.6% | 2.6% | 5.12 | 3.49 | +0.8 |
| 2016 | 28 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 51 | 0 | 57 | 244 | 81 | 29 | 3 | 30.3% | 12.2% | 1.4% | 2.51 | 2.83 | +1.4 |
| 2021 | 33 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 53 | 0 | 54 | 217 | 60 | 21 | 4 | 27.9% | 8.7% | 2.2% | 2.98 | 3.03 | +1.2 |
| 2022 | 34 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 31 | 0 | 36 | 166 | 45 | 20 | 9 | 25.7% | 13.0% | 7.0% | 5.94 | 6.40 | -0.6 |
| 2023 | 35 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 56 | 0 | 59 | 265 | 57 | 28 | 7 | 19.2% | 11.0% | 2.8% | 4.76 | 4.41 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 38 | MLB | OAK | 48 | — | 48 | 204 | 45 | 20 | 6 | 21.8% | 10.0% | 3.0% | 4.73 | 4.54 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 39 | MLB | OAK | 44 | — | 44 | 188 | 39 | 19 | 6 | 21.0% | 10.3% | 3.1% | 4.73 | 4.73 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 244 | 0 | 258 | 1115 | 288 | 121 | 33 | 25.8% | 10.8% | 2.9% | 4.12 | 3.91 | +4.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 189 | 0 | 200 | 865 | 224 | 94 | 26 | 25.8% | 10.8% | 2.9% | 4.12 | 3.91 | +3.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Spencer Patton (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.54 | 21.8% | 10.0% | 3.0% | — | 4.73 | 21.0% | 10.7% | 44 | +0.19 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Rodney R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 38 | SW | 4.17 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.0% | .272 | 3.38 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.79 | 2.67 | 295 | 82 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 38 | SW | 3.55 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 2.6% | .179 | 4.12 | 23.5% | 12.9% | 98 | +0.57 | 3.55 | 164 | 74 |
| Peter Moylan R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 38 | SW | 3.58 | 18.9% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .211 | 4.94 | 17.8% | 6.2% | 28 | +1.36 | 3.11 | 174 | 74 |
| Logan Ondrusek R 2024 · 4.34 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.34 | 19.2% | 7.3% | 3.5% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 138 | 72 |
| Ervin Santana R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 38 | SW | 4.32 | 18.8% | 7.6% | 3.4% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.75 | 720 | 72 |
| Ryan Madson R 2025 · 3.47 FIP | 37 | SW | 3.47 | 23.4% | 6.1% | 2.9% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.43 | 240 | 72 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2024 · 4.65 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.65 | 15.8% | 7.1% | 3.6% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 119 | 71 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2026 · 5.44 FIP | 38 | SW | 5.44 | 15.9% | 7.2% | 5.1% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.21 | 225 | 70 |
| Zack Segovia R 2024 · 4.52 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.52 | 17.6% | 13.6% | 2.2% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.37 | 144 | 69 |
| Matt Belisle R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.33 | 15.4% | 6.2% | 3.2% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.49 | 174 | 67 |
| Ronald Belisario R 2024 · 4.18 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.18 | 12.7% | 3.9% | 3.0% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.10 | 126 | 65 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.16 | 16.8% | 15.2% | 1.0% | .248 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 219 | 64 |
| Joe Blanton R 2024 · 5.01 FIP | 36 | SU | 5.01 | 20.0% | 5.6% | 5.2% | .319 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.12 | 240 | 63 |
| Logan Duran R 2025 · 3.65 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.65 | 15.5% | 8.9% | 1.3% | .427 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 187 | 63 |
| Hector Navarro R 2025 · 3.47 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.47 | 11.5% | 5.6% | 1.1% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 126 | 62 |
| Chien-Ming Wang R 2024 · 4.56 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.56 | 13.0% | 7.8% | 2.9% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.26 | 183 | 62 |
| Kyle Lohse R 2025 · 5.01 FIP | 37 | SW | 5.01 | 14.8% | 6.0% | 4.4% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.01 | 211 | 61 |
| Daniel Bard R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 38 | SU | 5.03 | 20.3% | 19.8% | 2.1% | .224 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.45 | 200 | 61 |
| Seunghwan Oh R 2025 · 5.68 FIP | 37 | SU | 5.68 | 18.2% | 6.8% | 5.9% | .383 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.80 | 226 | 60 |
| Chris Young R 2026 · 5.54 FIP | 38 | SU | 5.54 | 14.9% | 8.1% | 4.9% | .374 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.62 | 242 | 57 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.