Spencer Patton — OGILVIE

Spencer Patton P Las Vegas Aviators

Age 38 RHP 6'1" / 200 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 102

ERA4.44

FIP4.50

K%22.1%

BB%9.8%

K-BB%12.3%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 4 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL4040

CMD5050

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.3

Whiff%

p1019.1%

p1012.7%

xwOBA vs

p100.394

FB-0.9

SL-2.0

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	0	51	223	64	21	6	0%	1.0	26.8%	9.6%	17.1%	2.6%	5.12	3.47	+0.7
2015	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	53	0	51	223	64	21	6	0%	1.0	28.7%	9.4%	19.3%	2.7%	5.12	3.35	+0.7
2016	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	0	57	244	81	29	3	0%	1.1	30.3%	12.2%	18.1%	1.3%	2.51	2.79	+1.2
2016	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	51	0	57	244	81	29	3	0%	1.1	33.2%	11.9%	21.3%	1.2%	2.51	2.47	+1.4
2021	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	0	54	217	60	21	4	0%	1.0	27.9%	8.7%	19.2%	2.2%	2.98	3.04	+1.0
2021	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	53	0	54	217	60	21	4	0%	1.0	27.6%	9.7%	18.0%	1.8%	2.98	3.01	+1.0
2022	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	0	36	166	45	20	9	0%	1.2	25.7%	13.0%	12.7%	6.7%	5.94	6.26	-0.7
2022	34	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	0	36	166	45	20	9	0%	1.2	27.1%	12.0%	15.1%	5.4%	5.94	5.49	-0.4
2023	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	56	0	59	265	57	28	7	0%	1.0	18.3%	9.7%	8.6%	2.9%	4.76	4.38	+0.1
2023	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	56	0	59	265	57	28	7	0%	1.0	18.3%	9.7%	8.6%	2.9%	4.76	4.38	+0.1
2023	35	MIX RAW	2 levels	56	0	59	265	57	28	7	0%	1.0	21.5%	10.6%	10.9%	2.6%	4.76	4.14	+0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			104	0	107	466	110	49	16	0%	1.0	23.6%	10.5%	13.1%	3.4%	5.47	4.36	+0.2
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	38	MLB	OAK	4	0	4	17	4	2	1	0%	1.0	22.1%	9.8%	12.3%	3.0%	4.44	4.50	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	39	MLB MLE	OAK	46	0	48	204	43	21	7	0%	1.0	20.9%	10.5%	10.4%	3.4%	4.73	4.93	-0.2
2028	40	MLB MLE	OAK	40	0	42	175	35	20	7	0%	1.0	19.8%	11.2%	8.6%	3.9%	5.11	5.36	-0.4
2027	39	MLB CTX	OAK	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.9%	10.5%	10.4%	3.4%	4.73	4.93	—
2028	40	MLB CTX	OAK	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.8%	11.2%	8.6%	3.9%	5.11	5.36	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		104	0	107	466	110	49	16	0%	1.0	23.6%	10.5%	13.1%	3.4%	5.47	4.32	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		194	0	200	871	206	92	30	0%	1.0	23.6%	10.5%	13.1%	3.4%	5.47	4.32	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		244	0	258	1115	285	117	32	0%	1.1	25.6%	10.5%	15.1%	2.9%	4.12	3.87	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		189	0	200	865	221	91	25	0%	1.1	25.6%	10.5%	15.1%	2.9%	4.12	3.87	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Spencer Patton (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.50	22.1%	9.8%	3.0%	—	5.13	20.4%	9.6%	90	+0.63	—	—	—
Fernando Rodney R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	38	SU	4.37	20.9%	9.4%	3.4%	.272	3.37	26.2%	15.2%	185	-1.00	2.69	295	86
Joaquín Benoit R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	38	SU	3.58	24.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.179	4.11	23.5%	12.9%	98	+0.53	3.58	164	78
Peter Moylan R 2017 · 3.63 FIP	38	SU	3.63	18.9%	9.1%	1.8%	.211	4.77	17.8%	6.2%	28	+1.14	3.11	174	76
Juan Sandoval R 2019 · 5.41 FIP	38	SU	5.41	15.9%	7.2%	5.0%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.24	225	73
Ervin Santana R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	38	SU	4.40	18.8%	7.6%	3.5%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	720	73
Rudy Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	36	SU	4.72	15.8%	7.1%	3.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	119	70
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	70
Ryan Madson R 2018 · 3.49 FIP	37	SU	3.49	23.4%	6.1%	2.9%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	1.42	240	69
Ronald Belisario R 2019 · 4.16 FIP	36	SU	4.16	12.7%	3.9%	3.0%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	2.10	126	64
Matt Belisle R 2018 · 4.60 FIP	38	SU	4.60	15.4%	6.2%	3.7%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	2.51	174	64
Chien-Ming Wang R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	36	SU	4.53	13.0%	7.8%	2.8%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.23	183	62
Hector Navarro R 2017 · 3.53 FIP	37	SU	3.53	11.5%	5.6%	1.3%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	2.30	126	61
Joe Blanton R 2017 · 4.94 FIP	36	SU	4.94	20.0%	5.6%	5.1%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	240	61
Santiago Casilla R 2018 · 4.14 FIP	38	SU	4.14	16.8%	15.2%	1.0%	.248	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	219	59
Daniel Bard R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	38	SU	4.95	20.3%	19.8%	1.9%	.224	—	—	—	—	—	2.56	200	57
Erubiel Gonzalez R 2017 · 3.51 FIP	38	SU	3.51	13.3%	2.5%	2.2%	.388	—	—	—	—	—	2.99	119	57
Tony Pena Jr. R 2017 · 3.43 FIP	36	SU	3.43	10.9%	4.3%	1.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	128	53
Brad Ziegler R 2018 · 4.03 FIP	38	SU	4.03	16.4%	6.2%	2.8%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	2.63	257	52
Yoshihisa Hirano R 2020 · 5.02 FIP	36	SU	5.02	17.5%	12.7%	3.3%	.381	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	132	49
Chris Young R 2017 · 5.68 FIP	38	SU	5.68	14.9%	8.1%	5.1%	.374	—	—	—	—	—	4.69	242	46

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	49	21.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.73
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86