Colin Rea
P
Chicago Cubs
Age 36
RHP
6'5" / 220 lbs
MLB
peak 1.2 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION135 proj IP · Marcel + aging
ERA4.27
FIP4.41
xFIP3.55
SIERA3.40
K%18.2%
BB%7.4%
K-BB%10.8%
IP135
K†4545
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.2peak
2026
FB Velo
p4494.1
Whiff%
p3623.3%
K%
p3920.6%
xwOBA vs
p680.294
FB+2.7 (51%)
SL+1.4 (19%)
SI (9%)
CU (5%)
CT (5%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.4 (SP) / 4.55 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 25 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 24 | 24 | 133 | 536 | 106 | 33 | 5 | 17.2% | 6.5% | 1.2% | 2.50 | 3.12 | +3.6 |
| 2016 | 26 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 21 | 20 | 104 | 459 | 82 | 41 | 12 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 4.86 | 4.26 | +1.4 |
| 2018 | 28 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 18 | 15 | 75 | 341 | 70 | 36 | 14 | 17.6% | 11.3% | 4.9% | 5.73 | 5.72 | -0.7 |
| 2019 | 29 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 26 | 26 | 148 | 626 | 120 | 57 | 17 | 16.9% | 9.6% | 2.7% | 3.95 | 4.38 | +1.8 |
| 2020 | 30 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 9 | 2 | 14 | 62 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 16.1% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 5.79 | 4.74 | -0.0 |
| 2021 | 31 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 8 | 7 | 42 | 166 | 40 | 4 | 4 | 21.7% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 3.02 | 2.67 | +0.9 |
| 2023 | 33 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 30 | 26 | 143 | 587 | 131 | 39 | 24 | 21.9% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 4.29 | 4.46 | +1.6 |
| 2024 | 34 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 32 | 27 | 168 | 714 | 135 | 42 | 29 | 18.9% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 4.29 | 4.57 | +1.6 |
| 2025 | 35 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 32 | 27 | 159 | 662 | 127 | 44 | 20 | 19.2% | 6.6% | 2.9% | 3.95 | 3.94 | +2.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 36 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 14 | 11 | 69 | 304 | 54 | 25 | 11 | 17.8% | 8.2% | 3.6% | 5.19 | 4.63 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 36 | MLB | CHC | 57 | — | 57 | 239 | 44 | 18 | 8 | 18.2% | 7.4% | 3.5% | 4.27 | 4.41 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 36 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 126 | 543 | 98 | 43 | 19 | 18.0% | 7.9% | 3.6% | 4.78 | 4.53 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 37 | MLB | CHC | 20 | 20 | 110 | 464 | 80 | 37 | 18 | 17.2% | 8.1% | 3.9% | 4.97 | 5.19 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 38 | MLB | CHC | 17 | 17 | 94 | 399 | 64 | 35 | 17 | 16.1% | 8.8% | 4.4% | 5.36 | 5.62 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 214 | 185 | 1055 | 4457 | 829 | 330 | 145 | 18.6% | 7.4% | 3.3% | 4.15 | 4.25 | +14.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 41 | 35 | 200 | 845 | 157 | 63 | 27 | 18.6% | 7.4% | 3.3% | 4.15 | 4.25 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Colin Rea (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.61 | 18.9% | 6.7% | 3.4% | — | 5.39 | 16.7% | 8.3% | 204 | +0.78 | — | — | — |
| Frankie De La Cruz R 2025 · 4.34 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.34 | 16.2% | 8.0% | 2.9% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 240 | 48 |
| Walter Silva R 2028 · 3.95 FIP | 38 | SP- | 3.95 | 14.8% | 7.4% | 2.1% | .311 | 3.96 | 10.4% | 3.7% | 209 | +0.01 | 3.68 | 428 | 46 |
| Jason Hammel R 2025 · 4.34 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.34 | 15.8% | 6.0% | 3.3% | .342 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 645 | 45 |
| Edgar Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 36 | SP- | 4.58 | 12.3% | 5.8% | 3.3% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 450 | 45 |
| Jake Peavy R 2025 · 4.36 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.36 | 19.6% | 6.7% | 3.8% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.09 | 262 | 45 |
| Jesse Estrada R 2025 · 4.91 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.91 | 14.4% | 6.6% | 4.0% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.71 | 257 | 45 |
| Josh Roenicke R 2024 · 3.49 FIP | 34 | SP- | 3.49 | 18.0% | 5.8% | 2.1% | .332 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.29 | 283 | 44 |
| Jorge Martinez R 2024 · 3.47 FIP | 34 | SP- | 3.47 | 16.3% | 5.7% | 1.8% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 214 | 43 |
| Chris Young R 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 36 | SP- | 4.67 | 16.6% | 8.6% | 3.4% | .209 | 6.29 | 21.1% | 11.4% | 119 | +1.62 | 4.67 | 242 | 43 |
| Scott Feldman R 2024 · 4.64 FIP | 34 | SP- | 4.64 | 19.7% | 7.0% | 4.2% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 297 | 43 |
| Pablo Ortega R 2028 · 4.41 FIP | 38 | SP- | 4.41 | 8.6% | 7.3% | 2.0% | .291 | 4.33 | 11.5% | 6.0% | 236 | -0.08 | 3.92 | 375 | 43 |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 36 | SP- | 4.17 | 15.8% | 5.6% | 3.1% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 567 | 42 |
| Roberto Hernandez R 2025 · 4.22 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.22 | 13.8% | 7.0% | 2.5% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.22 | 171 | 42 |
| Guillermo Moscoso R 2025 · 4.19 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.19 | 12.6% | 6.7% | 2.4% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 264 | 41 |
| Ervin Santana R 2026 · 5.46 FIP | 36 | SP- | 5.46 | 12.4% | 8.4% | 4.3% | .309 | 4.38 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 65 | -1.08 | 3.66 | 720 | 41 |
| Shaun Marcum R 2023 · 3.94 FIP | 33 | SP- | 3.94 | 17.8% | 6.0% | 2.9% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.94 | 123 | 41 |
| Colby Lewis R 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 36 | SP- | 4.70 | 15.5% | 5.9% | 3.9% | .239 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 321 | 40 |
| Jonathan Castellanos R 2025 · 5.00 FIP | 35 | SP- | 5.00 | 8.4% | 9.2% | 2.6% | .314 | 5.02 | 11.0% | 2.0% | 67 | +0.02 | 3.56 | 394 | 40 |
| Jose Oyervides R 2025 · 5.48 FIP | 35 | SP- | 5.48 | 18.0% | 6.3% | 5.7% | .254 | 5.90 | 16.3% | 5.1% | 115 | +0.42 | 2.98 | 407 | 40 |
| Chris Smith R 2026 · 5.11 FIP | 36 | SP- | 5.11 | 15.6% | 7.5% | 4.3% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.93 | 413 | 39 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.