Colin Rea
P
Chicago Cubs
+1.0
WAR
Age 36
RHP
6'5" / 220 lbs
MLB
Svc 11.0 · Ctrl thru 2027
peak 1.0 · 2026
ERA4.38
FIP4.47
xFIP3.55
SIERA3.40
K%19.6%
BB%6.7%
K-BB%13.0%
IP135
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.0peak
2026
K†4550
FB Velo
p4494.1
Whiff%
p3623.3%
K%
p3920.6%
xwOBA vs
p680.294
FB+2.7 (48%)
SL+1.4 (19%)
SI (9%)
CU (7%)
CT (8%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 25 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 24 | 24 | 133 | 536 | 106 | 33 | 5 | 17.2% | 6.5% | 1.1% | 2.50 | 3.05 | +3.4 |
| 2016 | 26 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 21 | 20 | 104 | 459 | 82 | 41 | 12 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 4.86 | 4.24 | +1.2 |
| 2018 | 28 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 18 | 15 | 75 | 341 | 70 | 36 | 14 | 17.6% | 11.3% | 4.7% | 5.73 | 5.60 | -0.4 |
| 2019 | 29 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 26 | 26 | 148 | 626 | 120 | 57 | 17 | 16.9% | 9.6% | 2.8% | 3.95 | 4.44 | +1.4 |
| 2020 | 30 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 9 | 2 | 14 | 62 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 16.1% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 5.79 | 4.96 | -0.0 |
| 2021 | 31 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 8 | 7 | 42 | 166 | 40 | 4 | 4 | 21.7% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 3.02 | 2.56 | +1.1 |
| 2023 | 33 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 30 | 26 | 143 | 587 | 131 | 39 | 24 | 21.9% | 6.7% | 4.0% | 4.29 | 4.28 | +1.6 |
| 2024 | 34 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 32 | 27 | 168 | 714 | 135 | 42 | 29 | 18.9% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 4.29 | 4.18 | +2.1 |
| 2025 | 35 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 32 | 27 | 159 | 662 | 127 | 44 | 20 | 19.2% | 6.6% | 3.1% | 3.95 | 4.04 | +2.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 36 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 4 | 1 | 17 | 69 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 21.7% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 3.63 | 3.41 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 36 | MLB | CHC | 18 | 18 | 99 | 418 | 83 | 26 | 14 | 19.9% | 6.3% | 3.2% | 3.90 | 4.00 | +1.5 |
| 2026 Total | 36 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 116 | 487 | 98 | 29 | 16 | 20.1% | 6.0% | 3.2% | 3.86 | 3.91 | +1.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 37 | MLB | CHC | 17 | 17 | 93 | 392 | 75 | 26 | 13 | 19.0% | 6.6% | 3.4% | 4.45 | 4.56 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 38 | MLB | CHC | 13 | 13 | 73 | 310 | 63 | 19 | 11 | 20.2% | 6.1% | 3.5% | 4.47 | 4.48 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 39 | MLB | CHC | 58 | — | 58 | 245 | 47 | 16 | 9 | 19.3% | 6.4% | 3.7% | 4.59 | 4.66 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 204 | 175 | 1003 | 4222 | 790 | 308 | 129 | 18.7% | 7.3% | 3.1% | 4.07 | 4.12 | +13.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 41 | 35 | 200 | 842 | 158 | 61 | 26 | 18.7% | 7.3% | 3.1% | 4.07 | 4.12 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Colin Rea (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.52 | 19.2% | 6.7% | 3.3% | — | 4.56 | 19.5% | 13.1% | 224 | +0.04 | — | — | — |
| Frankie De La Cruz R 2025 · 4.37 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.37 | 16.2% | 8.0% | 3.0% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.74 | 240 | 49 |
| Walter Silva R 2028 · 4.13 FIP | 38 | SP- | 4.13 | 14.8% | 7.4% | 2.5% | .311 | 3.92 | 10.4% | 3.7% | 209 | -0.21 | 3.67 | 428 | 48 |
| Edgar Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 36 | SP- | 4.58 | 12.3% | 5.8% | 3.2% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.19 | 450 | 48 |
| Pablo Ortega R 2028 · 4.51 FIP | 38 | SP- | 4.51 | 8.6% | 7.3% | 2.2% | .291 | 4.23 | 11.5% | 6.0% | 236 | -0.28 | 4.03 | 375 | 48 |
| Jesse Estrada R 2025 · 4.36 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.36 | 14.4% | 6.6% | 3.0% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 257 | 46 |
| Jason Hammel R 2025 · 4.39 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.39 | 15.8% | 6.0% | 3.4% | .342 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.34 | 645 | 46 |
| Jonathan Castellanos R 2025 · 4.90 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.90 | 8.4% | 9.2% | 2.5% | .314 | 5.22 | 11.0% | 2.0% | 67 | +0.32 | 3.41 | 394 | 45 |
| Jorge Martinez R 2024 · 3.66 FIP | 34 | SP- | 3.66 | 16.3% | 5.7% | 2.2% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.48 | 214 | 44 |
| Guillermo Moscoso R 2025 · 4.34 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.34 | 12.6% | 6.7% | 2.6% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 264 | 44 |
| Roberto Hernandez R 2025 · 4.35 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.35 | 13.8% | 7.0% | 2.8% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 171 | 43 |
| Josh Roenicke R 2024 · 3.38 FIP | 34 | SP- | 3.38 | 18.0% | 5.8% | 1.9% | .332 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.27 | 283 | 43 |
| Ervin Santana R 2026 · 5.42 FIP | 36 | SP- | 5.42 | 12.4% | 8.4% | 4.2% | .309 | 4.32 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 65 | -1.10 | 3.75 | 720 | 43 |
| Jake Peavy R 2025 · 4.39 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.39 | 19.6% | 6.7% | 3.8% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.07 | 262 | 43 |
| Chris Young R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 36 | SP- | 4.62 | 16.6% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .209 | 6.35 | 21.1% | 11.4% | 119 | +1.73 | 4.62 | 242 | 43 |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 36 | SP- | 4.20 | 15.8% | 5.6% | 3.1% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.94 | 567 | 43 |
| Francisco Rodriguez R 2026 · 5.18 FIP | 36 | SP- | 5.18 | 10.7% | 9.3% | 3.3% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.17 | 273 | 42 |
| Scott Feldman R 2024 · 4.56 FIP | 34 | SP- | 4.56 | 19.7% | 7.0% | 4.1% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 297 | 41 |
| Colby Lewis R 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 36 | SP- | 4.67 | 15.5% | 5.9% | 3.9% | .239 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 321 | 41 |
| Shaun Marcum R 2023 · 4.03 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.03 | 17.8% | 6.0% | 3.0% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.03 | 123 | 40 |
| Chris Smith R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 36 | SP- | 4.81 | 15.6% | 7.5% | 3.8% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 413 | 40 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status FA
MLB Debut 2015
Service 11.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2027
First FA Year 2028
DEF 10%
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Ext / FA-deal | $6M | +1.0 | $8M | +$2M |
| 2027 | Ext / FA-deal | $8M | +0.7 | $3M | -$5M |
| Totals | $13M | $11M | -$2M | ||