Chase Anderson

P Texas Rangers

Age 39 RHP 6'1" / 210 lbs MLB Svc 13.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 1.7 · 2027

Overview

MLBRPExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	34	MIX2 levels	36	23	104	4.93	4.92	21.2%	9.8%	0.6	K 19.3% · BB 10.1% · FIP 5.18
2023	35	MIX2 levels	26	24	115	5.17	5.44	17.0%	10.2%	-0.1	K 16.4% · BB 9.9% · FIP 5.19
2024	36	MIX2 levels	33	5	70	5.66	5.41	17.3%	8.0%	-0.7	K 16.8% · BB 7.9% · FIP 5.27
2025	37	No MLB games played
2026	38	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	39	MLBTEX	29	29	175	4.54	4.57	21.3%	8.8%	1.7
2028PROJ	40	MLBTEX	18	18	111	4.97	5.16	20.1%	9.5%	0.5

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.2 · Next 2 projected WAR 2.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service13.000First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$11M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024

FB Velo37

xwOBA vs33

K%11

CompsYasutomo Kubo (age 38) · Francisco Campos (age 42) · Walter Silva (age 39)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 103

ERA4.54

FIP4.57

K%21.3%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%12.4%

Proj IP175

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 175 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3793.6

Whiff%

p4023.8%

p1116.5%

xwOBA vs

p330.332

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2014

Service 13.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$11M	+1.7	$14M	+$2M
Totals		$11M		$14M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2014	26	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	21	21	114	486	105	38	16	100%	5.4	21.6%	7.8%	13.8%	3.3%	4.01	4.06	+1.8
2014	26	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	21	21	114	486	105	38	16	100%	5.4	21.6%	7.8%	13.8%	3.3%	4.01	4.08	+1.8
2015	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	157	656	114	38	18	100%	5.6	17.3%	5.9%	11.4%	2.8%	4.19	3.92	+2.8
2015	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	28	157	656	114	38	18	100%	5.6	17.4%	5.8%	11.6%	2.7%	4.19	3.87	+2.9
2016	28	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	31	30	152	647	120	53	28	97%	4.9	18.5%	8.2%	10.4%	4.1%	4.39	4.83	+1.0
2016	28	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	31	30	152	647	120	53	28	97%	4.9	18.5%	8.2%	10.4%	4.3%	4.39	4.97	+0.8
2017	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	27	149	600	138	42	15	100%	5.5	23.4%	7.0%	16.3%	2.3%	2.90	3.30	+3.9
2017	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	27	149	600	138	42	15	100%	5.5	23.0%	7.0%	16.0%	2.5%	2.90	3.40	+3.7
2018	30	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	30	30	158	644	128	57	30	100%	5.3	19.9%	8.9%	11.0%	4.4%	3.93	4.98	+0.8
2018	30	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	30	30	158	644	128	57	30	100%	5.3	19.9%	8.9%	11.0%	4.7%	3.93	5.03	+0.7
2019	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	28	143	607	130	48	24	85%	4.3	20.9%	8.1%	12.8%	3.7%	4.22	4.39	+1.7
2019	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	28	143	607	130	48	24	85%	4.3	21.4%	7.9%	13.5%	4.0%	4.22	4.47	+1.6
2020	32	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	10	7	34	154	38	10	11	70%	3.4	24.7%	6.5%	18.2%	7.1%	7.22	5.76	-0.1
2020	32	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	10	7	34	154	38	10	11	70%	3.4	24.7%	6.5%	18.2%	7.1%	7.22	5.98	-0.2
2021	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	17	80	358	63	32	17	71%	3.3	16.7%	9.1%	7.5%	4.8%	6.05	5.51	-0.1
2021	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	17	80	358	63	32	17	71%	3.3	17.6%	8.9%	8.7%	4.7%	6.05	5.48	-0.1
2022	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	23	104	448	95	44	19	64%	2.9	19.3%	10.1%	9.1%	4.4%	4.93	5.18	+0.3
2022	34	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	23	104	448	95	44	19	64%	2.9	21.2%	9.8%	11.4%	4.2%	4.93	4.92	+0.6
2023	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	24	115	499	85	51	22	92%	4.4	16.4%	9.9%	6.6%	4.1%	5.17	5.19	+0.3
2023	35	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	24	115	499	85	51	22	92%	4.4	17.0%	10.2%	6.8%	4.4%	5.17	5.44	-0.1
2024	36	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	5	70	312	54	25	15	15%	2.1	16.8%	7.9%	8.9%	4.7%	5.66	5.27	-0.6
2024	36	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	5	70	312	54	25	15	15%	2.1	16.8%	7.9%	8.9%	4.7%	5.66	5.27	-0.6
2024	36	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	5	70	312	54	25	15	15%	2.1	17.3%	8.0%	9.3%	4.8%	5.66	5.41	-0.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			247	201	1107	4677	923	371	182	81%	4.5	19.7%	7.9%	11.8%	3.9%	4.41	4.57	+10.6
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	39	MLB	TEX	29	29	175	739	157	65	24	100%	6.0	21.3%	8.8%	12.4%	3.2%	4.54	4.57	+1.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	40	MLB MLE	TEX	18	18	111	469	94	45	17	100%	6.2	20.1%	9.5%	10.6%	3.7%	4.82	5.01	+0.5
2028	40	MLB CTX	TEX	18	18	111	469	94	45	19	100%	6.2	20.1%	9.5%	10.6%	4.0%	4.97	5.16	+0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		266	220	1218	5146	1017	416	201	83%	4.6	19.8%	8.1%	11.7%	3.9%	4.46	4.59	+11.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		44	36	200	845	167	68	33	83%	4.6	19.8%	8.1%	11.7%	3.9%	4.46	4.59	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		299	240	1276	5411	1053	440	209	80%	4.3	19.5%	8.1%	11.3%	3.9%	4.44	4.61	+11.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	38	200	848	165	69	33	80%	4.3	19.5%	8.1%	11.3%	3.9%	4.44	4.61	+1.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAARound Rock Express · 12 IPFIP 5.32 → 6.00 (+0.67)K% 21.1% → 18.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.05%	—	×0.860	18.11%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.77%	—	×0.900	7.89%
HR / BF /BF	5.26%	÷0.928	×1.100	6.24%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 86).

Result: FIP 5.32 → 6.00, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 29 IPFIP 5.66 → 5.75 (+0.09)K% 16.5% → 14.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.54%	—	×0.860	14.22%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.17%	—	×0.900	12.76%
HR / BF /BF	3.94%	÷1.062	×1.100	4.08%

Result: FIP 5.66 → 5.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAADurham Bulls · 80 IPFIP 4.95 → 5.38 (+0.43)K% 20.9% → 18.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.87%	—	×0.880	18.37%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.41%	—	×1.050	8.83%
HR / BF /BF	4.64%	÷1.034	×1.100	4.94%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 107).

Result: FIP 4.95 → 5.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAARound Rock Express · 32 IPFIP 5.28 → 5.94 (+0.65)K% 19.6% → 17.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.58%	—	×0.880	17.23%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.09%	—	×1.050	9.55%
HR / BF /BF	4.90%	÷0.958	×1.100	5.62%

Result: FIP 5.28 → 5.94, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

	Profile at Match Age	Next 3 Yrs	Career
Chase Anderson (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.2%	—	5.01	20.1%	10.6%	111	+0.44	—	—	—
Yasutomo Kubo R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	38	SP	3.98	20.4%	4.7%	3.6%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	152	65
Francisco Campos R 2015 · 4.77 FIP	42	SP	4.77	11.5%	7.9%	3.0%	.303	4.08	12.2%	7.0%	197	-0.69	4.06	332	55
Walter Silva R 2016 · 4.22 FIP	39	SP	4.22	10.3%	5.5%	2.4%	.294	4.35	10.0%	1.8%	235	+0.13	3.67	453	51
Pablo Ortega R 2016 · 4.01 FIP	39	SP	4.01	8.9%	4.8%	1.9%	.262	4.49	13.3%	7.1%	148	+0.48	4.01	375	48
Juan Antonio Pena L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	37	SP-	4.20	13.6%	9.9%	1.8%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	149	33
Logan Duran R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	37	SP-	3.66	15.5%	8.9%	1.4%	.427	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	187	31
Mauricio Lara L 2017 · 3.70 FIP	38	SP	3.70	12.0%	6.3%	1.5%	.301	4.96	12.3%	5.5%	111	+1.26	3.62	444	27
Jason Lane L 2015 · 5.56 FIP	38	SP	5.56	8.4%	6.2%	4.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	5.56	164	25
Lorenzo Barcelo R 2016 · 3.48 FIP	38	SP	3.48	12.8%	1.1%	2.4%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.14	259	23

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.0	107	20.0%	8.3%	1.47	4.46
Derek Holland ('21)	7.3	113	19.7%	8.4%	1.35	4.62
Dennis Bennett ('62-'68, 7 WAR*)	4.3	123	19.8%*	8.1%*	1.41*	4.40*
Marco Estrada ('19)	6.3	139	21.0%	7.6%	1.43	4.29
Sterling Hitchcock ('04)	6.4	107	17.7%	8.4%	1.27	4.80
Mark Gardner ('89-'01, 7 WAR*)	8.8	136	19.6%*	8.0%*	1.44*	4.84*
Paul Moskau ('77-'83, 3 WAR*)	3.2	91	19.8%*	8.9%*	1.50*	4.84*

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chase Anderson (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.2%	—	5.01	20.1%	10.6%	111	+0.44	—	—	—
Yasutomo Kubo R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	38	SP	3.98	20.4%	4.7%	3.6%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	152	65
Francisco Campos R 2015 · 4.77 FIP	42	SP	4.77	11.5%	7.9%	3.0%	.303	4.08	12.2%	7.0%	197	-0.69	4.06	332	55
Walter Silva R 2016 · 4.22 FIP	39	SP	4.22	10.3%	5.5%	2.4%	.294	4.35	10.0%	1.8%	235	+0.13	3.67	453	51
Pablo Ortega R 2016 · 4.01 FIP	39	SP	4.01	8.9%	4.8%	1.9%	.262	4.49	13.3%	7.1%	148	+0.48	4.01	375	48
Juan Antonio Pena L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	37	SP-	4.20	13.6%	9.9%	1.8%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	149	33
Logan Duran R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	37	SP-	3.66	15.5%	8.9%	1.4%	.427	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	187	31
Mauricio Lara L 2017 · 3.70 FIP	38	SP	3.70	12.0%	6.3%	1.5%	.301	4.96	12.3%	5.5%	111	+1.26	3.62	444	27
Jason Lane L 2015 · 5.56 FIP	38	SP	5.56	8.4%	6.2%	4.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	5.56	164	25
Lorenzo Barcelo R 2016 · 3.48 FIP	38	SP	3.48	12.8%	1.1%	2.4%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.14	259	23

Chase Anderson

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Path Comps

Career Comps