Merrill Kelly — OGILVIE

Merrill Kelly P Arizona Diamondbacks

Age 37 RHP 6'2" / 202 lbs MLB Svc 7.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 2.0 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION157 act + 14 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133124vR 116

ERA4.47

FIP4.62

K%17.0%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%8.2%

ROS IP14

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 171 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$22M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5555

CMD5050

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1692.1

Whiff%

p2221.4%

p1015.5%

xwOBA vs

p100.384

SI (10%)

CU (12%)

SL (10%)

CT-1.7 (13%)

CH-2.3 (28%)

FB-4.2 (37%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2019

Service 7.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2027

NTCOPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$2M	—	—	—
2027	Ext	$20M	—	—	—
Totals		$22M		$-4M	-$23M

Options · projected decision
2028	VESTING OPT	$20.0M / $0.0M buyout	—
2029	CLUB OPT	$20.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2030	CLUB OPT	$7.0M / $1.0M buyout	DECLINE
2031	CLUB OPT	$4.2M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2032	CLUB OPT	$5.2M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	30	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	32	32	183	777	158	53	29	100%	5.7	20.3%	6.8%	13.5%	3.9%	4.42	4.41	+1.0
2019	30	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	32	32	183	777	158	53	29	100%	5.7	20.3%	6.8%	13.5%	3.7%	4.42	4.30	+1.3
2020	31	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	5	5	31	125	29	4	5	100%	6.3	23.2%	3.2%	20.0%	4.2%	2.59	3.87	+0.4
2020	31	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	5	5	31	125	29	4	5	100%	6.3	23.2%	3.2%	20.0%	4.0%	2.59	3.71	+0.5
2021	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	162	685	137	40	21	100%	5.8	19.5%	5.7%	13.8%	3.3%	4.44	4.00	+1.7
2021	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	28	162	685	137	40	21	100%	5.8	20.0%	5.8%	14.2%	3.1%	4.44	3.83	+2.1
2022	33	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	33	33	200	804	177	59	21	100%	6.1	22.0%	7.3%	14.7%	2.8%	3.37	3.69	+2.9
2022	33	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	33	33	200	804	177	59	21	100%	6.1	22.0%	7.3%	14.7%	2.6%	3.37	3.58	+3.2
2023	34	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	30	30	178	722	187	69	20	100%	5.9	25.9%	9.6%	16.3%	2.9%	3.29	3.73	+2.5
2023	34	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	30	30	178	722	187	69	20	100%	5.9	25.9%	9.6%	16.3%	2.9%	3.29	3.73	+2.5
2023	34	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	30	30	178	722	187	69	20	100%	5.9	25.9%	9.6%	16.3%	2.8%	3.29	3.62	+2.8
2024	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	78	318	65	19	12	100%	5.5	21.0%	6.3%	14.7%	3.9%	4.17	4.26	+0.6
2024	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	78	318	65	19	12	100%	5.5	21.0%	6.3%	14.7%	3.9%	4.17	4.26	+0.6
2024	35	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	14	78	318	65	19	12	100%	5.5	20.4%	6.0%	14.5%	3.8%	4.17	4.17	+0.7
2025	36	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	32	32	184	748	167	48	23	100%	5.8	22.3%	6.4%	15.9%	2.9%	3.52	3.60	+2.9
2025	36	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	32	32	184	748	167	48	23	100%	5.8	22.3%	6.4%	15.9%	2.9%	3.52	3.60	+2.9
2025	36	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	32	32	184	748	167	48	23	100%	5.8	22.3%	6.4%	15.9%	3.1%	3.52	3.69	+2.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			199	199	1160	4803	1013	355	157	100%	5.8	21.1%	7.4%	13.7%	3.3%	3.92	4.03	+12.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	37	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	28	28	157	680	104	67	27	100%	5.6	15.5%	9.8%	5.6%	4.3%	4.82	5.42	-0.9
YTD	37	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	28	28	157	680	104	67	27	100%	5.6	15.5%	9.8%	5.6%	4.3%	4.82	5.42	-0.9
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	37	AAA RAW	ARI	1	1	5	20	2	2	0	100%	5.0	10.0%	10.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.52	—
2026	37	MLB RAW	ARI	27	27	152	660	102	65	27	100%	5.6	15.5%	9.8%	5.6%	4.1%	4.97	5.29	-0.7
SO FAR	37	MLB RAW	ARI	27	27	152	660	102	65	27	100%	5.6	15.5%	9.8%	5.6%	4.1%	4.97	5.29	-0.7
ROS	37	MLB MLE	ARI	2	2	14	59	10	5	2	100%	7.0	17.0%	8.8%	8.2%	3.3%	4.47	4.62	+0.0
ROS	37	MLB CTX	ARI	2	2	14	59	10	5	2	100%	7.0	17.0%	8.8%	8.2%	3.2%	4.37	4.52	+0.0
2026 TOT	37	MLB MLE	ARI	—	—	171	739	114	72	29	—	—	15.4%	9.8%	5.7%	3.9%	4.79	5.35	-0.9
FULL	37	MLB A+C	ARI	—	—	166	701	114	72	29	—	—	16.3%	10.3%	6.0%	4.1%	4.92	5.29	-0.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	38	MLB MLE	ARI	20	20	120	505	82	48	21	100%	6.0	16.3%	9.5%	6.8%	4.1%	5.32	5.55	-0.9
2028	39	MLB MLE	ARI	17	17	103	434	66	44	20	100%	6.1	15.1%	10.2%	4.9%	4.5%	5.72	5.98	-1.2
2027	38	MLB CTX	ARI	20	20	120	507	83	48	20	100%	6.0	16.3%	9.5%	6.8%	3.9%	5.20	5.43	-0.9
2028	39	MLB CTX	ARI	17	17	103	435	66	44	19	100%	6.1	15.1%	10.2%	4.9%	4.3%	5.58	5.84	-1.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		239	239	1397	5801	1171	453	197	100%	5.8	20.2%	7.8%	12.4%	3.4%	4.16	4.25	+10.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	831	168	65	28	100%	5.9	20.2%	7.8%	12.4%	3.4%	4.16	4.25	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		202	202	1173	4859	1023	359	165	100%	5.8	21.1%	7.4%	13.7%	3.4%	3.92	4.13	+9.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		34	34	200	828	174	61	28	100%	5.8	21.1%	7.4%	13.7%	3.4%	3.92	4.13	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Merrill Kelly (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.17	21.8%	6.8%	3.0%	—	5.75	15.8%	5.9%	222	+1.58	—	—	—
James Shields R 2018 · 4.85 FIP	36	SP	4.85	17.7%	9.0%	3.8%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	720	72
Adam Wainwright R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	37	SP	4.08	20.5%	7.7%	3.2%	.310	3.65	19.6%	13.5%	464	-0.43	2.03	1,127	61
John Lackey R 2016 · 3.70 FIP	37	SP	3.70	24.1%	7.0%	3.2%	.249	5.05	20.4%	13.6%	171	+1.35	3.51	577	56
Colby Lewis R 2016 · 4.67 FIP	36	SP	4.67	15.5%	5.9%	3.9%	.239	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	321	54
Aaron Harang R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	37	SP	4.47	14.4%	6.4%	3.2%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	4.47	172	50
Jarrett Grube R 2017 · 4.41 FIP	35	SP	4.41	15.8%	8.1%	3.0%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.75	393	48
A.J. Burnett R 2015 · 3.16 FIP	38	SP	3.16	20.5%	6.7%	1.7%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	164	47
Roberto Hernandez R 2016 · 4.38 FIP	35	SP	4.38	13.8%	7.0%	2.8%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.38	171	46
Jeremy Guthrie R 2016 · 4.85 FIP	37	SP	4.85	11.6%	8.6%	3.0%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	4.85	235	45
Brad Penny R 2015 · 3.68 FIP	37	SP	3.68	12.0%	5.8%	1.6%	.346	—	—	—	—	—	3.68	135	44
Frankie De La Cruz R 2019 · 4.38 FIP	35	SP-	4.38	16.2%	8.0%	3.0%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.77	240	44
Yasutomo Kubo R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	38	SP	3.98	20.4%	4.7%	3.6%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	152	44
Tim Hudson R 2015 · 4.41 FIP	40	SP	4.41	12.2%	6.9%	2.7%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	4.41	124	44
Dan Haren R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	34	SP	4.54	17.2%	4.7%	4.2%	.251	—	—	—	—	—	4.54	187	43
Pablo Ortega R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	38	SP	4.52	8.6%	7.3%	2.2%	.291	4.24	11.5%	6.0%	236	-0.28	4.01	375	43
Walter Silva R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	38	SP	4.15	14.8%	7.4%	2.5%	.311	3.91	10.4%	3.7%	209	-0.24	3.67	428	43
Lorenzo Barcelo R 2015 · 3.28 FIP	37	SP	3.28	13.2%	3.6%	1.5%	.345	3.48	12.8%	11.7%	45	+0.20	3.28	199	42
Kameron Loe R 2017 · 3.38 FIP	35	SP	3.38	17.1%	8.0%	1.3%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.38	201	41
R.A. Dickey R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	40	SP	4.31	14.3%	6.8%	2.8%	.253	4.63	17.0%	8.7%	360	+0.32	4.31	574	41
Edgar Gonzalez R 2019 · 4.58 FIP	36	SP	4.58	12.3%	5.8%	3.2%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	450	41

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.8	121	18.1%	8.7%	1.47	4.93
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Daniel Mengden ('19)	1.5	73	17.3%	7.7%	1.24	4.68
Yonny Chirinos ('24)	1.7	84	18.9%	6.6%	1.38	4.37