Merrill Kelly

P Arizona Diamondbacks

Age 38 RHP 6'2" / 202 lbs MLB peak 0.4 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	35	MIX2 levels	14	14	78	4.17	4.17	20.4%	6.0%	1.1	K 21.0% · BB 6.3% · FIP 4.26
2025	36	MLBTEX	32	32	184	3.52	3.69	22.3%	6.4%	3.8
2026	37	MIX2 levels	30	30	167	4.80	5.16	15.9%	9.7%	0.5	K 16.1% · BB 9.7% · FIP 5.28
2027PROJ	38	MLBARI	16	16	94	4.76	5.05	17.7%	8.5%	0.4
2028PROJ	39	MLBARI	7	7	41	5.08	5.37	16.6%	9.2%	-0.0
2029PROJ	40	MLBARI	3	3	17	5.49	5.78	15.4%	9.9%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 5.4 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo16

K%10

xwOBA vs10

Form2.96 ERA (proj 4.76) · K 21.9% (proj 17.7%) · BB 8.8% (proj 8.5%) ▲ last 60d · 27 IP through Oct 27

CompsYasutomo Kubo (age 38) · Pablo Ortega (age 38) · Jose Oyervides (age 37)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136128vR 120

ERA4.76

FIP5.05

K%17.7%

BB%8.5%

K-BB%9.2%

Proj IP94

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 94 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1692.1

Whiff%

p2421.6%

p1016.1%

xwOBA vs

p100.377

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	30	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	32	32	183	777	158	53	29	100%	5.7	20.3%	6.8%	13.5%	3.9%	4.42	4.41	+2.1
2019	30	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	32	32	183	777	158	53	29	100%	5.7	20.3%	6.8%	13.5%	3.7%	4.42	4.30	+2.4
2020	31	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	5	5	31	125	29	4	5	100%	6.3	23.2%	3.2%	20.0%	4.2%	2.59	3.87	+0.6
2020	31	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	5	5	31	125	29	4	5	100%	6.3	23.2%	3.2%	20.0%	4.0%	2.59	3.71	+0.6
2021	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	162	685	137	40	21	100%	5.8	19.5%	5.7%	13.8%	3.3%	4.44	4.00	+2.7
2021	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	28	162	685	137	40	21	100%	5.8	20.0%	5.8%	14.2%	3.1%	4.44	3.83	+3.0
2022	33	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	33	33	200	804	177	59	21	100%	6.1	22.0%	7.3%	14.7%	2.8%	3.37	3.69	+4.2
2022	33	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	33	33	200	804	177	59	21	100%	6.1	22.0%	7.3%	14.7%	2.6%	3.37	3.58	+4.5
2023	34	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	30	30	178	722	187	69	20	100%	5.9	25.9%	9.6%	16.3%	2.9%	3.29	3.73	+3.6
2023	34	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	30	30	178	722	187	69	20	100%	5.9	25.9%	9.6%	16.3%	2.8%	3.29	3.62	+3.8
2024	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	78	318	65	19	12	100%	5.5	21.0%	6.3%	14.7%	3.9%	4.17	4.26	+1.0
2024	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	78	318	65	19	12	100%	5.5	21.0%	6.3%	14.7%	3.9%	4.17	4.26	+1.0
2024	35	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	14	78	318	65	19	12	100%	5.5	20.4%	6.0%	14.5%	3.8%	4.17	4.17	+1.1
2025	36	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	32	32	184	748	167	48	23	100%	5.8	22.3%	6.4%	15.9%	2.9%	3.52	3.60	+4.0
2025	36	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	32	32	184	748	167	48	23	100%	5.8	22.3%	6.4%	15.9%	2.9%	3.52	3.60	+4.0
2025	36	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	32	32	184	748	167	48	23	100%	5.8	22.3%	6.4%	15.9%	3.1%	3.52	3.69	+3.8
2026	37	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	167	724	115	70	28	100%	5.6	16.1%	9.7%	6.4%	4.2%	4.80	5.28	+0.2
2026	37	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	167	724	115	70	28	100%	5.6	16.1%	9.7%	6.4%	4.2%	4.80	5.28	+0.2
2026	37	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	30	167	724	115	70	28	100%	5.6	15.9%	9.7%	6.2%	3.9%	4.80	5.16	+0.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			201	201	1170	4847	1024	358	158	100%	5.8	21.1%	7.4%	13.7%	3.3%	3.93	4.02	+19.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	38	MLB	ARI	16	16	94	397	70	34	14	100%	5.9	17.7%	8.5%	9.2%	3.6%	4.76	5.05	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	39	MLB MLE	ARI	7	7	41	174	29	16	7	100%	5.9	16.6%	9.2%	7.4%	4.1%	5.20	5.49	-0.0
2029	40	MLB MLE	ARI	3	3	17	71	11	7	3	100%	5.6	15.4%	9.9%	5.5%	4.5%	5.63	5.92	-0.1
2028	39	MLB CTX	ARI	7	7	41	173	29	16	7	100%	5.9	16.6%	9.2%	7.4%	3.9%	5.08	5.37	-0.0
2029	40	MLB CTX	ARI	3	3	17	72	11	7	3	100%	5.7	15.4%	9.9%	5.5%	4.3%	5.49	5.78	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		211	211	1228	5091	1064	381	168	100%	5.8	20.9%	7.5%	13.4%	3.3%	3.99	4.09	+19.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	829	173	62	27	100%	5.8	20.9%	7.5%	13.4%	3.3%	3.99	4.09	+3.1
Career	—	MLE		204	204	1183	4903	1034	362	166	100%	5.8	21.1%	7.4%	13.7%	3.4%	3.92	4.12	+19.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		34	34	200	829	175	61	28	100%	5.8	21.1%	7.4%	13.7%	3.4%	3.92	4.12	+3.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAReno Aces · 5 IPFIP 3.52 → 3.51 (−0.01)K% 10.0% → 8.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	10.00%	—	×0.860	8.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.00%	—	×0.900	9.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.52 → 3.51, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

	Profile at Match Age	Next 3 Yrs	Career
Merrill Kelly (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.6%	—	5.61	16.2%	6.8%	58	+0.56	—	—	—
Yasutomo Kubo R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	38	SP	3.98	20.4%	4.7%	3.6%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	152	48
Pablo Ortega R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	38	SP	4.52	8.6%	7.3%	2.2%	.291	4.24	11.5%	6.0%	236	-0.28	4.01	375	45
Jose Oyervides R 2019 · 5.66 FIP	37	SP	5.66	16.3%	11.2%	4.6%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	407	44
Walter Silva R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	38	SP	4.15	14.8%	7.4%	2.5%	.311	3.91	10.4%	3.7%	209	-0.24	3.67	453	43
Ivan Maldonado R 2016 · 5.41 FIP	36	SP	5.41	6.4%	9.7%	3.0%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.60	172	38
Jason Lane L 2015 · 5.56 FIP	38	SP	5.56	8.4%	6.2%	4.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	5.56	164	23
Jorge Castillo L 2019 · 4.91 FIP	37	SP	4.91	19.6%	8.1%	4.5%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.50	408	21
Juan Antonio Pena L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	37	SP-	4.20	13.6%	9.9%	1.8%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	149	17
Jonathan Castellanos R 2019 · 5.24 FIP	37	SW	5.24	11.0%	9.0%	3.5%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	394	11
Oscar Rivera L 2017 · 5.80 FIP	36	SP	5.80	9.8%	7.8%	4.6%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	3.68	237	8

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.6	120	20.7%	7.8%	1.29	4.05
Mike Minor ('22)	7.0	128	21.6%	7.0%	1.30	4.25
Jake Odorizzi ('22)	6.3	139	22.2%	8.1%	1.23	3.99
Danny Duffy ('21)	5.9	107	21.1%	8.7%	1.11	3.95
Ray Washburn ('61-'70, 12 WAR*)	6.0	121	17.6%*	7.5%*	1.17*	4.17*
Bruce Kison ('71-'85, 16 WAR*)	9.0	121	20.4%*	8.5%*	1.10*	4.16*
Lynn McGlothen ('72-'82, 13 WAR*)	7.5	150	21.2%*	8.7%*	1.26*	4.50*

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Merrill Kelly (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.6%	—	5.61	16.2%	6.8%	58	+0.56	—	—	—
Yasutomo Kubo R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	38	SP	3.98	20.4%	4.7%	3.6%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	152	48
Pablo Ortega R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	38	SP	4.52	8.6%	7.3%	2.2%	.291	4.24	11.5%	6.0%	236	-0.28	4.01	375	45
Jose Oyervides R 2019 · 5.66 FIP	37	SP	5.66	16.3%	11.2%	4.6%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	407	44
Walter Silva R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	38	SP	4.15	14.8%	7.4%	2.5%	.311	3.91	10.4%	3.7%	209	-0.24	3.67	453	43
Ivan Maldonado R 2016 · 5.41 FIP	36	SP	5.41	6.4%	9.7%	3.0%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.60	172	38
Jason Lane L 2015 · 5.56 FIP	38	SP	5.56	8.4%	6.2%	4.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	5.56	164	23
Jorge Castillo L 2019 · 4.91 FIP	37	SP	4.91	19.6%	8.1%	4.5%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.50	408	21
Juan Antonio Pena L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	37	SP-	4.20	13.6%	9.9%	1.8%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	149	17
Jonathan Castellanos R 2019 · 5.24 FIP	37	SW	5.24	11.0%	9.0%	3.5%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	394	11
Oscar Rivera L 2017 · 5.80 FIP	36	SP	5.80	9.8%	7.8%	4.6%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	3.68	237	8

Merrill Kelly

Contract

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Path Comps

Career Comps