Merrill Kelly — OGILVIE

Merrill Kelly P Arizona Diamondbacks

Age 37 RHP 6'2" / 202 lbs MLB Svc 7.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 2.0 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION99 act + 62 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 145136vR 126

ERA4.63

FIP4.79

K%16.9%

BB%7.9%

K-BB%9.0%

ROS IP62

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 161 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5555

CMD5050

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1892.2

Whiff%

p2221.4%

p1014.4%

xwOBA vs

p100.405

SI (10%)

CU (11%)

SL (11%)

CT-1.7 (15%)

CH-2.3 (26%)

FB-4.2 (37%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2019

Service 7.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2027

NTCOPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$8M	+0.0	$0.2M	-$8M
2027	Ext	$20M	—	—	—
Totals		$28M		$-0.6M	-$27M

Options · projected decision
2028	VESTING OPT	$20.0M / $0.0M buyout	—
2029	CLUB OPT	$20.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2030	CLUB OPT	$7.0M / $1.0M buyout	DECLINE
2031	CLUB OPT	$4.2M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2032	CLUB OPT	$5.2M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2019	30	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	32	32	183	777	158	53	29	100%	5.7	20.3%	6.8%	13.5%	3.6%	4.42	4.21	+2.6
2019	30	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	32	32	183	777	158	53	29	100%	5.7	20.3%	6.8%	13.5%	3.7%	4.42	4.30	+2.4
2020	31	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	5	5	31	125	29	4	5	100%	6.3	23.2%	3.2%	20.0%	3.8%	2.59	3.65	+0.3
2020	31	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	5	5	31	125	29	4	5	100%	6.3	23.2%	3.2%	20.0%	4.0%	2.59	3.71	+0.3
2021	32	MIX	2 levels	28	28	162	685	137	40	21	100%	5.8	19.5%	5.7%	13.8%	3.0%	4.44	3.83	+3.0
2021	32	MIX	2 levels	28	28	162	685	137	40	21	100%	5.8	20.0%	5.8%	14.2%	3.1%	4.44	3.83	+3.0
2022	33	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	33	33	200	804	177	59	21	100%	6.1	22.0%	7.3%	14.7%	2.5%	3.37	3.54	+4.4
2022	33	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	33	33	200	804	177	59	21	100%	6.1	22.0%	7.3%	14.7%	2.6%	3.37	3.58	+4.3
2023	34	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	30	30	178	722	187	69	20	100%	5.9	25.9%	9.6%	16.3%	2.7%	3.29	3.58	+3.8
2023	34	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	30	30	178	722	187	69	20	100%	5.9	25.9%	9.6%	16.3%	2.8%	3.29	3.62	+3.7
2024	35	MIX	2 levels	14	14	78	318	65	19	12	100%	5.5	21.0%	6.3%	14.7%	3.5%	4.17	4.05	+0.8
2024	35	MIX	2 levels	14	14	78	318	65	19	12	100%	5.5	20.4%	6.0%	14.5%	3.8%	4.17	4.17	+0.7
2025	36	MLB	Texas Rangers	32	32	184	748	167	48	23	100%	5.8	22.3%	6.4%	15.9%	3.0%	3.52	3.67	+3.7
2025	36	MLB	Texas Rangers	32	32	184	748	167	48	23	100%	5.8	22.3%	6.4%	15.9%	3.1%	3.52	3.69	+3.7
▸ 2026 Season
2026	37	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	17	17	99	431	61	38	20	100%	5.8	14.4%	8.8%	5.6%	4.9%	5.11	5.67	-0.3
ROS	37	MLB	ARI	10	10	62	264	44	21	10	100%	6.2	16.9%	7.9%	9.0%	3.9%	4.63	4.79	-0.1
ROS	37	MLB	ARI	10	10	62	262	44	21	10	100%	6.2	16.9%	7.9%	9.0%	3.9%	4.67	4.83	-0.2
2026 TOT	37	MLB	ARI	—	—	161	695	105	59	30	—	—	15.2%	8.5%	6.7%	4.3%	4.92	5.33	+0.1
2026 FULL	37	MLB	ARI	—	—	156	659	105	59	30	—	—	16.0%	8.9%	7.1%	4.6%	5.10	5.41	-0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	38	MLB	ARI	20	20	120	505	83	43	22	100%	6.0	16.4%	8.6%	7.8%	4.3%	5.32	5.56	-0.2
2028	39	MLB	ARI	17	17	103	434	66	40	21	100%	6.1	15.2%	9.3%	5.9%	4.8%	5.72	5.99	-0.7
2029	40	MLB	ARI	15	15	88	374	53	37	19	100%	5.9	14.1%	10.0%	4.1%	5.2%	6.14	6.42	-1.3
2027	38	MLB	ARI	20	20	120	507	83	43	22	100%	6.0	16.4%	8.6%	7.8%	4.4%	5.37	5.61	-0.3
2028	39	MLB	ARI	17	17	103	435	66	40	21	100%	6.1	15.2%	9.3%	5.9%	4.9%	5.78	6.05	-0.8
2029	40	MLB	ARI	15	15	88	372	52	37	20	100%	5.9	14.1%	10.0%	4.1%	5.3%	6.20	6.48	-1.4
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			251	251	1475	6131	1216	468	224	100%	5.9	19.8%	7.6%	12.2%	3.7%	4.32	4.40	+17.3
/ 200 IP	—			34	34	200	831	165	63	30	100%	5.9	19.8%	7.6%	12.2%	3.7%	4.32	4.40	+2.3
Career	—			191	191	1115	4610	980	330	147	100%	5.8	21.3%	7.2%	14.1%	3.2%	3.90	3.96	+18.8
/ 200 IP	—			34	34	200	827	176	59	26	100%	5.8	21.3%	7.2%	14.1%	3.2%	3.90	3.96	+3.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Merrill Kelly (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.18	21.8%	6.8%	3.0%	—	5.95	15.3%	6.1%	311	+1.77	—	—	—
Aaron Harang R 2026 · 4.54 FIP	37	SP	4.54	14.4%	6.4%	3.4%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	4.54	172	51
Jarrett Grube R 2024 · 4.16 FIP	35	SP	4.16	15.8%	8.1%	2.5%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.49	393	47
James Shields R 2025 · 4.81 FIP	36	SP	4.81	17.7%	9.0%	3.8%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	4.36	720	47
A.J. Burnett R 2027 · 3.10 FIP	38	SP	3.10	20.5%	6.7%	1.6%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	164	47
Yasutomo Kubo R 2027 · 3.67 FIP	38	SP	3.67	20.4%	4.7%	3.1%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	152	45
Dan Haren R 2023 · 4.40 FIP	34	SP	4.40	17.2%	4.7%	3.9%	.251	—	—	—	—	—	4.40	187	44
Frankie De La Cruz R 2024 · 4.34 FIP	35	SP-	4.34	16.2%	8.0%	2.9%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.70	240	44
Tim Hudson R 2029 · 4.42 FIP	40	SP	4.42	12.2%	6.9%	2.7%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	124	44
Brad Penny R 2026 · 3.52 FIP	37	SP	3.52	12.0%	5.8%	1.3%	.346	—	—	—	—	—	3.52	135	43
Pablo Ortega R 2027 · 4.41 FIP	38	SP	4.41	8.6%	7.3%	2.0%	.291	4.33	11.5%	6.0%	236	-0.08	3.92	375	42
Walter Silva R 2027 · 3.95 FIP	38	SP	3.95	14.8%	7.4%	2.1%	.311	3.96	10.4%	3.7%	209	+0.01	3.68	428	42
R.A. Dickey R 2029 · 4.31 FIP	40	SP	4.31	14.3%	6.8%	2.8%	.253	4.63	17.0%	8.7%	360	+0.32	4.31	574	42
Kameron Loe R 2024 · 3.47 FIP	35	SP	3.47	17.1%	8.0%	1.5%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.47	201	42
Lorenzo Barcelo R 2026 · 3.07 FIP	37	SP	3.07	13.2%	3.6%	1.2%	.345	3.27	12.8%	11.7%	45	+0.20	3.07	199	41
Edgar Gonzalez R 2025 · 4.58 FIP	36	SP	4.58	12.3%	5.8%	3.3%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	3.18	450	41
John Lackey R 2026 · 3.60 FIP	37	SP	3.60	24.1%	7.0%	3.0%	.249	4.88	20.4%	13.6%	171	+1.28	3.42	577	41
Colby Lewis R 2025 · 4.70 FIP	36	SP	4.70	15.5%	5.9%	3.9%	.239	—	—	—	—	—	3.91	321	40
Adam Wainwright R 2026 · 3.96 FIP	37	SP	3.96	20.5%	7.7%	3.0%	.310	3.55	19.6%	13.5%	464	-0.41	2.03	1,127	40
Ryan Vogelsong R 2027 · 4.46 FIP	38	SP-	4.46	18.1%	9.4%	3.1%	.295	4.67	16.7%	6.3%	82	+0.21	4.46	217	39
Roberto Hernandez R 2024 · 4.22 FIP	35	SP	4.22	13.8%	7.0%	2.5%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.22	171	39

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4	113	17.3%	8.5%	1.63	5.17
Jason Vargas ('19)	4	116	18.5%	8.2%	1.38	4.57
Homer Bailey ('19)	4	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56
Dan Straily ('19)	4	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Chris Tillman ('18)	4	116	16.5%	9.7%	1.34	5.42
Matt Cain ('17)	3	91	15.2%	8.2%	1.51	5.58
Matt Garza ('17)	3	122	15.5%	8.5%	1.26	5.10