Merrill Kelly
P
Arizona Diamondbacks
+1.3
WAR
Age 37
RHP
6'2" / 202 lbs
MLB
Svc 7.0 · Ctrl thru 2027
peak 1.3 · 2026
ERA3.92
FIP4.19
xFIP5.94
SIERA5.75
K%22.6%
BB%7.0%
K-BB%15.6%
IP126
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.3peak
2026
K†5050
FB Velo
p1491.9
Whiff%
p4224.1%
K%
p5122.3%
xwOBA vs
p460.316
SI (9%)
CU (10%)
SL (12%)
CT-1.7 (15%)
CH-2.3 (28%)
FB-4.2 (34%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 30 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 32 | 32 | 183 | 777 | 158 | 53 | 29 | 20.3% | 6.8% | 3.9% | 4.42 | 4.37 | +1.9 |
| 2020 | 31 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 5 | 5 | 31 | 125 | 29 | 4 | 5 | 23.2% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 2.59 | 3.74 | +0.4 |
| 2021 | 32 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 28 | 28 | 162 | 685 | 137 | 40 | 21 | 19.5% | 5.7% | 3.0% | 4.44 | 3.81 | +2.7 |
| 2022 | 33 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 33 | 33 | 200 | 804 | 177 | 59 | 21 | 22.0% | 7.3% | 2.8% | 3.37 | 3.72 | +3.6 |
| 2023 | 34 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 30 | 30 | 178 | 722 | 187 | 69 | 20 | 25.9% | 9.6% | 2.7% | 3.29 | 3.61 | +3.4 |
| 2024 | 35 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 14 | 14 | 78 | 318 | 65 | 19 | 12 | 21.0% | 6.3% | 3.7% | 4.17 | 4.14 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | 36 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 32 | 32 | 184 | 748 | 167 | 48 | 23 | 22.3% | 6.4% | 3.2% | 3.52 | 3.76 | +3.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 37 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 2 | 2 | 10 | 44 | 5 | 6 | 1 | — | — | — | 1.74 | — | — |
| ROS | 37 | MLB | ARI | 20 | 20 | 112 | 473 | 100 | 33 | 15 | 21.2% | 7.0% | 3.2% | 3.93 | 4.32 | +1.2 |
| 2026 Total | 37 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 122 | 517 | 105 | 39 | 16 | 20.4% | 7.6% | 3.1% | 3.75 | 3.96 | +1.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 38 | MLB | ARI | 18 | 18 | 100 | 424 | 82 | 34 | 14 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 3.3% | 4.45 | 4.68 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 39 | MLB | ARI | 16 | 16 | 86 | 363 | 67 | 30 | 13 | 18.6% | 8.2% | 3.5% | 4.70 | 4.87 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 176 | 176 | 1027 | 4223 | 923 | 298 | 134 | 21.9% | 7.1% | 3.2% | 3.76 | 3.89 | +16.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 823 | 180 | 58 | 26 | 21.9% | 7.1% | 3.2% | 3.76 | 3.89 | +3.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Merrill Kelly (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.32 | 21.2% | 7.0% | 3.2% | — | 4.77 | 19.0% | 10.9% | 186 | +0.45 | — | — | — |
| Jake Peavy R 2024 · 4.39 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.39 | 19.6% | 6.7% | 3.8% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.07 | 262 | 44 |
| Frankie De La Cruz R 2024 · 4.37 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.37 | 16.2% | 8.0% | 3.0% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.74 | 240 | 43 |
| Walter Silva R 2027 · 4.13 FIP | 38 | SP- | 4.13 | 14.8% | 7.4% | 2.5% | .311 | 3.92 | 10.4% | 3.7% | 209 | -0.21 | 3.67 | 428 | 41 |
| Tim Hudson R 2029 · 4.40 FIP | 40 | SP- | 4.40 | 12.2% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.40 | 124 | 39 |
| Edgar Gonzalez R 2025 · 4.58 FIP | 36 | SP- | 4.58 | 12.3% | 5.8% | 3.2% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.19 | 450 | 39 |
| Chris Smith R 2025 · 4.81 FIP | 36 | SP- | 4.81 | 15.6% | 7.5% | 3.8% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 413 | 39 |
| Colby Lewis R 2025 · 4.67 FIP | 36 | SP- | 4.67 | 15.5% | 5.9% | 3.9% | .239 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 321 | 38 |
| Roberto Hernandez R 2024 · 4.35 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.35 | 13.8% | 7.0% | 2.8% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 171 | 36 |
| Pablo Ortega R 2027 · 4.51 FIP | 38 | SP- | 4.51 | 8.6% | 7.3% | 2.2% | .291 | 4.23 | 11.5% | 6.0% | 236 | -0.28 | 4.03 | 375 | 35 |
| Yasutomo Kubo R 2027 · 3.94 FIP | 38 | SP | 3.94 | 20.4% | 4.7% | 3.6% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.94 | 152 | 35 |
| Guillermo Moscoso R 2024 · 4.34 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.34 | 12.6% | 6.7% | 2.6% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 264 | 35 |
| Ryan Vogelsong R 2027 · 4.44 FIP | 38 | SP | 4.44 | 18.1% | 9.4% | 3.1% | .295 | 4.88 | 16.7% | 6.3% | 82 | +0.44 | 4.44 | 217 | 34 |
| Craig Stammen R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 37 | SP- | 3.55 | 23.4% | 3.4% | 3.6% | .267 | 4.56 | 19.8% | 14.2% | 41 | +1.01 | 1.83 | 407 | 34 |
| Jarrett Grube R 2024 · 4.47 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.47 | 15.8% | 8.1% | 3.1% | .296 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.71 | 393 | 32 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2024 · 4.45 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.45 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 3.9% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 208 | 30 |
| Lorenzo Barcelo R 2026 · 3.18 FIP | 37 | SP | 3.18 | 13.2% | 3.6% | 1.4% | .345 | 3.38 | 12.8% | 11.7% | 45 | +0.20 | 3.18 | 199 | 30 |
| Jeremy Guthrie R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 37 | SP- | 4.87 | 11.6% | 8.6% | 3.0% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.87 | 235 | 29 |
| Francisco Rodriguez R 2025 · 5.18 FIP | 36 | SP- | 5.18 | 10.7% | 9.3% | 3.3% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.17 | 273 | 29 |
| Jean Machi R 2024 · 4.11 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.11 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 3.2% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.11 | 186 | 29 |
| Kameron Loe R 2024 · 3.36 FIP | 35 | SP | 3.36 | 17.1% | 8.0% | 1.3% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.36 | 201 | 28 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status FA
MLB Debut 2019
Service 7.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2027
First FA Year 2028
NTCOPT
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Ext / FA-deal | $20M | +1.3 | $10M | -$10M |
| 2027 | Ext / FA-deal | $20M | +0.7 | $3M | -$17M |
| Totals | $40M | $13M | -$27M | ||
| Options · projected decision | |||
| 2028 | VESTING OPT | $2028.0M / $0.0M buyout | — |
| 2029 | CLUB OPT | $2025.0M / $0.0M buyout | DECLINE |
| 2030 | CLUB OPT | $7.0M / $1.0M buyout | DECLINE |
| 2031 | CLUB OPT | $4.2M / $0.0M buyout | DECLINE |
| 2032 | CLUB OPT | $5.2M / $0.0M buyout | DECLINE |
| 2033 | CLUB OPT | $2021.0M / $0.0M buyout | DECLINE |
| 2034 | CLUB OPT | $2022.0M / $0.0M buyout | DECLINE |