Shohei Ohtani — OGILVIE

Shohei OhtaniDHTWP Los Angeles Dodgers

Age 33 L/R 6'4" / 210 lbs MLB HR +8%BB -8% Svc 8.000 · Ctrl thru 2033

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 0 ros · stats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 145161vR 166

AVG/OBP/SLG.282 / .365 / .579

PA611

HR41

SB24

K%24

BB%11

BABIP311

ISO295

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$198M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 60 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT60

Whiff%

659.4%

xAVG

900.290

POWER60

Barrel%

9020.7

Avg EV

9094.7

Bat Spd

8074.5

EYE55

Chase%

9021.1%

SPEED55

Sprint

5527.7

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%29%▼▼32% over 105 PA (60d) · proj 24%

BB%11%·11% over 105 PA (60d) · proj 11%

ISO.248▼▼.165 over 91 AB (60d) · proj .295

HR/BB8.4%▼5.3% over 57 BBE (60d) · proj 10.1%

BABIP.316·.278 over 54 BIP (60d) · proj .319

SLASH.252/.340/.500▼▼proj .284/.365/.580

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1578 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

525

1053

—

wRC+

145

187

▶▶R

wOBA

383

445

▶R

ISO

253

369

▶▶R

BABIP

335

315

◀L

25.0%

23.6%

▶R

BB%

8.4%

12.2%

▶▶R

Contract CONFIRMED · hand-curated extension

Status FA

MLB Debut 2018

Service 8.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

NTCDEF 85%

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027ROS	Ext	$46M	+8.2	$98M	+$52M
2028	Ext	$46M	+3.2	$28M	-$14M
2029	Ext	$46M	+2.3	$16M	-$21M
2030	Ext	$46M	+1.3	$8M	-$25M
2031	Ext	$46M	+0.5	$1M	-$29M
2032	Ext	$46M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	$46M	—	—	—
Totals		$322M		$150M	-$90M

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$90M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2018	24	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	367	326	93	21	2	22	37	102	2	10	4	285	361	564	925	279	350	28	10	400	155	+24	+0	+0	-9	+8	2.3
2019	25	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	425	384	110	20	5	18	33	110	2	12	3	286	344	505	850	219	354	26	8	368	135	+18	+1	+0	-11	+9	1.8
2020	26	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	175	153	29	6	0	7	22	50	0	7	1	190	291	366	657	176	229	29	13	298	88	-3	+1	+0	-4	+4	-0.2
2021	27	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	639	537	138	26	8	46	96	189	4	26	10	257	374	592	966	335	303	30	15	414	151	+39	+1	-0	-7	+14	4.8
2022	28	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	666	586	160	30	6	34	72	161	5	11	9	273	357	519	876	246	320	24	11	382	135	+28	-1	+0	-17	+14	2.5
2023	29	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	599	497	151	26	8	44	91	143	3	20	6	304	411	654	1.065	350	342	24	15	450	174	+53	+2	+0	-15	+13	5.3
2024	30	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	731	636	197	38	7	54	81	162	6	59	4	310	391	646	1.037	336	336	22	11	441	181	+70	+10	+0	-18	+16	8.0
2025	31	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	727	611	172	25	9	55	109	187	3	20	6	282	392	622	1.014	340	315	26	15	433	169	+60	+2	+0	-18	+16	6.0
2026	32	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	618	523	144	26	4	30	81	152	7	11	3	275	378	512	891	237	329	25	13	388	140	+30	+1	+0	-15	+13	2.9
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	4947	4253	1194	218	49	310	622	1256	32	176	46	281	375	574	949	293	326	25	13	408	162	+368	+17	-0	-115	+107	38.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2018	24	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	367	329	94	22	2	22	35	102	2	10	4	286	358	565	923	280	350	28	10	397	155	+24	+0	+0	-9	+8	2.3
2019	25	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	425	387	111	21	5	18	32	110	2	12	3	287	344	506	851	220	354	26	8	367	135	+18	+1	+0	-11	+9	1.8
2020	26	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	175	153	29	6	0	7	22	50	0	7	1	190	291	366	657	176	229	29	13	298	88	-3	+1	+0	-4	+4	-0.2
2021	27	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	639	557	138	27	8	45	76	189	4	26	10	248	342	567	910	320	303	30	12	392	151	+39	+1	-0	-7	+14	4.8
2022	28	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	666	600	160	31	6	33	58	161	5	11	9	267	336	503	840	237	320	24	9	368	135	+28	-1	+0	-17	+14	2.5
2023	29	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	599	523	151	27	8	43	70	143	3	20	6	289	376	618	993	329	342	24	12	425	174	+53	+2	+0	-15	+13	5.3
2024	30	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	731	649	199	40	8	52	71	162	6	59	4	307	380	633	1.013	327	336	22	10	436	181	+70	+10	+0	-18	+16	8.0
2025	31	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	727	633	174	26	11	53	89	187	3	20	6	275	367	602	969	327	315	26	12	418	169	+60	+2	+0	-18	+16	6.0
2026	32	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	618	541	147	28	5	29	65	152	7	11	3	272	357	503	860	231	329	25	11	376	140	+30	+1	+0	-15	+13	2.9
2018	24	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	367	329	94	22	2	22	35	102	2	10	4	286	358	565	923	280	350	28	10	397	155	+24	+0	+0	-9	+8	2.3
2018	24	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	—	367	326	93	21	2	22	37	102	2	10	4	285	361	564	925	279	350	28	10	400	155	+24	+0	+0	-9	+8	2.3
2019	25	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	425	387	111	21	5	18	32	110	2	12	3	287	344	506	851	220	354	26	8	367	135	+18	+1	+0	-11	+9	1.8
2019	25	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	—	425	384	110	20	5	18	33	110	2	12	3	286	344	505	850	219	354	26	8	368	135	+18	+1	+0	-11	+9	1.8
2020	26	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	175	153	29	6	0	7	22	50	0	7	1	190	291	366	657	176	229	29	13	298	88	-3	+1	+0	-4	+4	-0.2
2020	26	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	—	175	153	29	6	0	7	22	50	0	7	1	190	291	366	657	176	229	29	13	298	88	-3	+1	+0	-4	+4	-0.2
2021	27	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	639	557	138	27	8	45	76	189	4	26	10	248	342	567	910	320	286	30	12	392	151	+39	+1	-0	-7	+14	4.8
2021	27	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	—	639	537	138	26	8	46	96	189	4	26	10	257	374	592	966	335	303	30	15	414	151	+39	+1	-0	-7	+14	4.8
2022	28	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	666	600	160	31	6	33	58	161	5	11	9	267	336	503	840	237	311	24	9	368	135	+28	-1	+0	-17	+14	2.5
2022	28	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	—	666	586	160	30	6	34	72	161	5	11	9	273	357	519	876	246	320	24	11	382	135	+28	-1	+0	-17	+14	2.5
2023	29	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	599	523	151	27	8	43	70	143	3	20	6	289	376	618	993	329	318	24	12	425	174	+53	+2	+0	-15	+13	5.3
2023	29	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	—	599	497	151	26	8	44	91	143	3	20	6	304	411	654	1.065	350	342	24	15	450	174	+53	+2	+0	-15	+13	5.3
2024	30	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	731	649	199	40	8	52	71	162	6	59	4	307	380	633	1.013	327	334	22	10	436	181	+70	+10	+0	-18	+16	8.0
2024	30	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	731	636	197	38	7	54	81	162	6	59	4	310	391	646	1.037	336	336	22	11	441	181	+70	+10	+0	-18	+16	8.0
2025	31	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	727	633	174	26	11	53	89	187	3	20	6	275	367	602	969	327	306	26	12	418	169	+60	+2	+0	-18	+16	6.0
2025	31	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	727	611	172	25	9	55	109	187	3	20	6	282	392	622	1.014	340	315	26	15	433	169	+60	+2	+0	-18	+16	6.0
2026	32	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	618	541	147	28	5	29	65	152	7	11	3	272	357	503	860	231	323	25	11	376	140	+30	+1	+0	-15	+13	2.9
2026	32	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	618	523	144	26	4	30	81	152	7	11	3	275	378	512	891	237	329	25	13	388	140	+30	+1	+0	-15	+13	2.9
2018	24	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	367	327	94	22	2	22	35	102	2	10	4	287	358	569	927	281	350	28	10	397	155	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	425	388	111	21	5	18	32	110	2	12	3	286	344	505	850	219	354	26	8	367	135	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	175	151	29	6	0	7	22	50	0	7	1	192	291	371	662	179	229	29	13	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	27	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	639	554	138	27	8	45	76	189	4	26	10	249	342	570	913	321	303	30	12	392	151	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	666	598	160	31	6	33	58	161	5	11	9	268	336	505	841	237	320	24	9	368	135	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	599	521	151	27	8	43	70	143	3	20	6	290	376	620	996	330	342	24	12	425	174	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	731	648	199	40	8	52	71	162	6	59	4	307	380	634	1.014	327	336	22	10	436	181	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	727	629	174	26	11	53	89	187	3	20	6	277	367	606	973	329	315	26	12	418	169	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	32	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	618	541	147	28	5	29	65	152	7	11	3	272	357	503	860	231	329	25	11	376	140	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	30	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	731	648	199	40	8	52	71	162	6	59	4	307	380	634	1.014	327	336	22	10	436	181	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	727	629	174	26	11	53	89	187	3	20	6	277	367	606	973	329	315	26	12	418	169	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	32	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	618	541	147	28	5	29	65	152	7	11	3	272	357	503	860	231	329	25	11	376	140	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	33	MLB MLE	LAD	100%	611	536	153	27	6	40	65	147	5	24	6	285	368	580	948	295	319	24	11	407	161	+45	+2	+0	-15	+13	8.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	33	MLB CTX	LAD	100%	611	536	150	25	5	41	65	147	5	24	6	282	365	579	945	298	311	24	11	405	161	+45	+2	+0	-15	+13	4.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	LAD	100%	586	514	142	24	6	37	62	144	5	14	4	276	359	559	918	283	310	25	11	395	153	+37	+1	-5	-15	+13	3.2
2029	35	MLB MLE	LAD	100%	556	489	129	21	5	33	58	140	4	8	3	265	348	535	883	270	300	25	10	381	144	+29	+0	-6	-14	+12	2.3
2030	36	MLB MLE	LAD	100%	516	454	117	18	5	30	53	133	4	3	2	255	337	510	847	256	291	26	10	367	135	+21	-0	-6	-13	+11	1.3
2031	37	MLB MLE	LAD	100%	466	413	99	14	4	25	47	122	3	1	1	244	326	484	810	240	281	26	10	353	125	+14	-0	-7	-12	+10	0.5
2032	38	MLB MLE	LAD	100%	406	360	84	11	4	21	40	108	3	0	0	234	315	459	774	225	271	27	10	338	115	+7	+0	-8	-10	+9	-0.2
2033	39	MLB MLE	LAD	100%	336	299	67	9	3	16	32	91	2	0	0	224	304	434	739	210	262	27	10	324	106	+2	+0	-8	-8	+7	-0.7
2028	34	MLB CTX	LAD	100%	586	514	141	23	5	38	62	144	5	14	4	273	356	559	915	286	303	25	11	394	153	+37	+1	-5	-15	+13	3.2
2029	35	MLB CTX	LAD	100%	556	489	129	20	5	35	58	140	4	8	3	263	346	535	881	273	293	25	10	380	144	+29	+0	-6	-14	+12	2.3
2030	36	MLB CTX	LAD	100%	516	454	115	17	4	31	53	133	4	3	2	252	335	510	845	258	284	26	10	366	135	+21	-0	-6	-13	+11	1.3
2031	37	MLB CTX	LAD	100%	466	413	100	14	4	26	47	122	3	1	1	242	323	484	808	243	274	26	10	352	125	+14	-0	-7	-12	+10	0.5
2032	38	MLB CTX	LAD	100%	406	360	84	11	3	22	40	108	3	0	0	232	313	459	772	227	265	27	10	337	115	+7	+0	-8	-10	+9	-0.2
2033	39	MLB CTX	LAD	100%	336	299	67	8	3	17	32	91	2	0	0	222	302	434	736	212	256	27	10	323	106	+2	+0	-8	-8	+7	-0.7
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	7813	6782	1830	311	73	479	914	1994	53	202	56	270	360	549	909	279	311	26	12	392	147	+479	+18	-40	-186	+169	44.9
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	564	152	26	6	40	76	166	4	17	5	270	359	550	909	280	310	26	12	392	147	+40	+1	-3	-15	+14	3.7
Career	—	MLE		—	8424	7437	1994	352	86	504	875	2141	58	226	62	268	350	542	892	274	308	25	10	386	147	+524	+20	-40	-201	+183	49.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	574	154	27	7	39	68	165	4	17	5	268	350	544	893	275	308	25	10	386	147	+40	+2	-3	-16	+14	3.8

Two-Way Total WAR · bat + arm

Combined projection (what leaderboards & trade value use). The hitter table above is bat-only; pitching is added here.

2027

+8.1

6.2b 1.9p

2028

+6.7

5.2b 1.5p

2029

+5.3

4.2b 1.1p

2030

+4.0

3.2b 0.8p

2031

+2.3

2.3b 0.0p

2032

+1.5

1.5b 0.0p

2033

+0.8

0.8b 0.0p

Pitching projection

Two-way player — pitching line shown alongside the hitter projection above. WAR totals on leaderboards combine both.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	24	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	10	10	52	211	63	22	6	100%	5.2	29.9%	10.4%	19.4%	2.8%	3.31	3.43	+0.9
2018	24	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	10	10	52	211	63	22	6	100%	5.2	29.9%	10.4%	19.4%	2.8%	3.31	3.45	+0.9
2020	26	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	2	2	2	16	3	8	0	100%	0.8	18.8%	50.0%	-31.2%	0.0%	37.80	7.85	-0.1
2020	26	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	2	2	2	16	3	8	0	100%	0.8	18.8%	50.0%	-31.2%	0.0%	37.80	13.90	-0.2
2021	27	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	23	23	130	533	156	42	15	100%	5.7	29.3%	7.9%	21.4%	2.8%	3.18	3.14	+2.9
2021	27	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	23	23	130	533	156	42	15	100%	5.7	29.3%	7.9%	21.4%	2.8%	3.18	3.17	+2.8
2022	28	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	28	28	166	660	219	44	14	100%	5.9	33.2%	6.7%	26.5%	2.1%	2.33	2.28	+5.7
2022	28	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	28	28	166	660	219	44	14	100%	5.9	33.2%	6.7%	26.5%	2.1%	2.33	2.35	+5.5
2023	29	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	23	23	132	531	167	55	18	100%	5.7	31.5%	10.4%	21.1%	3.3%	3.14	3.58	+2.1
2023	29	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	23	23	132	531	167	55	18	100%	5.7	31.5%	10.4%	21.1%	3.4%	3.14	3.59	+2.1
2025	31	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	14	14	47	188	62	9	3	100%	3.4	33.0%	4.8%	28.2%	1.5%	2.87	1.76	+1.9
2025	31	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	14	14	47	188	62	9	3	100%	3.4	33.0%	4.8%	28.2%	1.5%	2.87	1.76	+1.9
2025	31	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	14	14	47	188	62	9	3	100%	3.4	33.0%	4.8%	28.2%	1.6%	2.87	1.87	+1.8
2026	32	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	14	14	86	340	95	26	4	100%	6.1	27.9%	7.6%	20.3%	1.1%	1.79	2.33	+2.9
2026	32	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	14	14	86	340	95	26	4	100%	6.1	27.9%	7.6%	20.3%	1.1%	1.79	2.33	+2.9
2026	32	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	14	14	86	340	95	26	4	100%	6.1	27.9%	7.6%	20.3%	1.2%	1.79	2.40	+2.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			114	114	614	2479	765	206	60	100%	5.4	30.9%	8.3%	22.5%	2.4%	2.83	2.89	+15.6
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	33	MLB	LAD	10	10	61	258	77	19	5	100%	6.1	30.0%	7.5%	22.5%	2.0%	3.05	2.98	+1.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	LAD	9	9	55	234	68	19	5	100%	6.2	29.1%	8.0%	21.1%	2.3%	3.19	3.29	+1.1
2029	35	MLB MLE	LAD	8	8	50	210	59	18	5	100%	6.2	28.1%	8.6%	19.6%	2.6%	3.45	3.62	+0.8
2030	36	MLB MLE	LAD	7	7	44	186	50	17	6	100%	6.3	27.1%	9.2%	17.9%	3.0%	3.77	3.99	+0.5
2028	34	MLB CTX	LAD	9	9	55	232	68	19	5	100%	6.1	29.1%	8.0%	21.1%	2.4%	3.24	3.34	+1.1
2029	35	MLB CTX	LAD	8	8	50	211	59	18	6	100%	6.2	28.1%	8.6%	19.6%	2.7%	3.51	3.68	+0.8
2030	36	MLB CTX	LAD	7	7	44	186	50	17	6	100%	6.3	27.1%	9.2%	17.9%	3.1%	3.84	4.06	+0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		139	139	763	3109	942	260	77	100%	5.5	30.3%	8.4%	22.0%	2.5%	2.96	2.96	+18.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	814	247	68	20	100%	5.5	30.3%	8.4%	22.0%	2.5%	2.96	2.96	+4.9
Career	—	MLE		114	114	614	2479	765	206	59	100%	5.4	30.9%	8.3%	22.5%	2.4%	2.83	2.85	+17.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		37	37	200	807	249	67	19	100%	5.4	30.9%	8.3%	22.5%	2.4%	2.83	2.85	+4.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Shohei Ohtani (OGILVIE)	—	—	2.98	30.0%	7.5%	2.0%	—	3.61	28.2%	19.6%	149	+0.63	—	—	—
Josh Lowey R 2017 · 2.36 FIP	32	SP	2.36	24.7%	6.9%	0.9%	.330	3.45	22.4%	15.6%	53	+1.09	2.22	426	63
Jose Oyervides R 2015 · 3.01 FIP	33	SP	3.01	19.1%	6.2%	1.4%	.333	4.09	21.9%	14.5%	184	+1.08	3.01	407	59
Jarrett Grube R 2015 · 3.75 FIP	33	SP	3.75	18.7%	4.2%	3.1%	.285	4.57	17.3%	9.6%	253	+0.82	3.75	393	55
Kenta Maeda R 2021 · 3.79 FIP	33	SP	3.79	24.9%	6.8%	3.5%	.307	4.26	23.6%	17.1%	230	+0.47	2.87	1,092	52
Chuck Smith R 2001 · 3.99 FIP	31	SP	3.99	18.4%	8.1%	2.6%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	211	51
Junior Guerra R 2018 · 3.99 FIP	33	SP	3.99	22.3%	9.0%	3.0%	.309	4.12	21.2%	9.1%	173	+0.13	3.18	646	49
Jorge Martinez R 2017 · 3.70 FIP	32	SP	3.70	17.1%	2.6%	3.1%	.355	3.71	16.3%	10.6%	117	+0.01	3.53	214	45
Yoanner Negrin R 2017 · 3.15 FIP	33	SP	3.15	15.6%	6.0%	1.1%	.277	3.87	17.5%	9.4%	148	+0.72	3.15	485	45
Josh Lindblom R 2020 · 3.50 FIP	33	SP	3.50	27.2%	8.4%	3.0%	.308	4.46	21.7%	13.8%	255	+0.96	1.83	480	44
Hector Ambriz R 2016 · 3.63 FIP	32	SP	3.63	16.0%	6.4%	2.0%	.273	6.40	10.4%	2.9%	91	+2.77	2.24	259	43
Logan Duran R 2015 · 3.42 FIP	33	SP	3.42	15.8%	10.0%	0.7%	.287	3.77	15.3%	6.4%	95	+0.35	3.42	187	42
Kenshin Kawakami R 2009 · 3.97 FIP	34	SP-	3.97	15.7%	7.6%	2.2%	.277	4.06	15.1%	9.5%	87	+0.09	3.97	244	40
Koji Uehara R 2009 · 3.52 FIP	34	SP	3.52	17.2%	3.9%	2.5%	.300	2.55	33.5%	30.6%	145	-0.97	1.28	481	39
Hiroki Kuroda R 2008 · 3.31 FIP	33	SP	3.31	14.9%	4.4%	1.7%	.274	3.36	19.1%	14.4%	516	+0.05	2.96	1,319	37
Guillermo Moscoso R 2017 · 3.77 FIP	33	SP	3.77	14.5%	6.9%	1.8%	.270	4.64	14.9%	7.5%	176	+0.87	3.56	486	36
Merrill Kelly R 2022 · 3.69 FIP	33	SP	3.69	22.0%	7.3%	2.8%	.267	3.76	23.5%	15.9%	435	+0.07	3.60	1,170	35
Jonathan Castellanos R 2015 · 3.63 FIP	33	SP	3.63	12.2%	6.5%	1.3%	.313	4.15	11.8%	3.5%	216	+0.52	3.40	394	35
Hisashi Iwakuma R 2014 · 3.19 FIP	33	SP	3.19	21.7%	2.7%	2.9%	.285	4.19	18.6%	13.5%	360	+1.00	3.19	884	34
Mitch Lively R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	31	SP-	3.47	17.0%	6.4%	1.8%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	2.39	158	34
Chris Smith R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	34	SP	3.79	20.0%	8.1%	2.5%	.306	4.41	18.4%	10.2%	285	+0.62	3.79	477	33

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.1	82	30.3%	8.3%	0.94	2.96
Eric Gagne ('08)	3.2	80	27.0%	8.5%	1.06	3.47
John Wetteland ('00)	3.3	66	25.9%	8.0%	0.88	2.80
Joe Nathan ('16)	4.6	71	25.9%	9.1%	0.82	2.87
Cody Allen ('19)	2.3	58	30.5%	9.9%	1.07	3.14
Francisco Rodríguez ('17)	4.9	65	28.5%	9.7%	0.90	2.86
David Robertson ('25)	4.5	64	31.9%	9.9%	0.82	2.93

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Shohei Ohtani (OGILVIE)	33	60	60	55	55	282/365/574	292	319	40	24	24%	11%	161	+5.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
★Alex Rodriguez 2008 · MLB	33	54→59	70	51→55	59	299/394/578	280	312	39	17	19%	12%	171	+6.5	286/375/540	254	305	34	15	18%	11%	156	+5.4	278/367/519	241	296	32	13	18%	11%	149	+4.7
●Alfonso Soriano 2009 · MLB	33	51→56	65→70	53→60	45	279/326/530	251	304	33	22	21%	6%	137	+4.0	253/305/470	217	286	27	10	22%	7%	115	+2.4	251/304/485	234	283	31	5	23%	6%	119	+2.5
★Bernie Williams 2001 · MLB	32	56→66	62→60	51→50	56	292/364/533	240	301	28	12	14%	10%	150	+5.0	299/376/490	191	316	22	9	13%	11%	145	+4.6	298/380/469	171	316	19	8	12%	11%	142	+4.5
★Carlos Beltrán 2009 · MLB	32	51→60	61→65	56→60	59	272/351/503	232	280	28	20	15%	11%	139	+4.2	284/358/476	192	308	20	13	14%	10%	135	+3.8	284/346/504	220	304	28	6	17%	8%	139	+4.2
●John Vander Wal 2001 · MLB	35	55→57	62→60	51→50	62	287/386/531	243	321	29	14	20%	14%	157	+5.5	264/346/453	189	326	20	8	23%	11%	125	+3.2	257/338/437	180	325	18	5	25%	11%	120	+1.8
★Jayson Werth 2011 · MLB	32	54→62	60	53→55	56	276/366/500	224	325	27	15	23%	12%	143	+4.5	270/355/449	179	324	20	14	22%	11%	128	+3.3	300/388/474	174	348	19	10	18%	12%	146	+4.0
●Jose Altuve 2024 · MLB	34	56→66	59→60	53→60	57	293/372/509	217	310	27	15	16%	10%	148	+4.8	276/336/443	167	309	21	14	18%	8%	120	+2.8	266/323/420	155	298	20	12	18%	7%	110	+2.2
★Jeff Kent 2001 · MLB	33	61→64	62→65	46→45	60	315/402/560	245	339	27	11	16%	12%	169	+6.4	301/367/526	225	323	25	7	15%	9%	150	+5.0	298/359/520	222	318	25	6	15%	8%	147	+5.1
★Lance Berkman 2009 · MLB	33	55→64	62→70	49→50	60	290/380/532	242	309	29	11	17%	12%	155	+5.4	271/370/486	215	296	25	8	17%	13%	141	+4.3	267/371/481	214	288	26	4	17%	14%	142	+4.0
★Brian Giles 2003 · MLB	32	54→63	67→70	50	69	291/398/574	282	278	33	12	11%	14%	170	+6.5	285/390/499	214	291	22	9	11%	14%	151	+5.1	286/393/475	189	297	17	8	10%	14%	147	+5.3
●Brandon Belt 2022 · MLB	34	50→60	67→65	44→50	57	272/368/539	268	308	35	5	24%	12%	153	+5.2	251/352/469	218	329	27	4	30%	13%	132	+3.6	235/348/431	195	325	24	1	32%	14%	123	+1.7
●Chase Utley 2010 · MLB	31	55→65	60→65	57→55	56	287/380/513	226	303	26	15	16%	10%	151	+5.1	262/357/437	175	278	19	16	13%	10%	126	+3.2	251/348/406	155	266	16	17	12%	10%	117	+2.0
★Freddie Freeman 2022 · MLB	32	57→66	60→65	47→50	58	295/377/516	220	313	28	7	16%	11%	151	+5.0	310/384/511	201	345	21	12	16%	10%	152	+5.1	311/388/512	201	347	20	13	16%	10%	157	+6.3
★George Springer 2022 · MLB	32	47→57	68→70	46→55	55	266/351/537	271	281	37	7	21%	10%	147	+4.7	253/327/439	186	279	24	14	19%	9%	116	+2.5	256/337/433	177	285	23	17	19%	10%	119	+2.8
★Josh Donaldson 2019 · MLB	33	49→59	64→70	47→50	62	265/370/512	247	293	31	6	21%	14%	147	+4.8	253/363/494	241	288	31	4	23%	14%	141	+4.3	247/363/490	242	275	32	2	22%	14%	141	+3.1
●Mookie Betts 2024 · MLB	31	54→63	64→65	50→55	60	288/377/542	254	300	30	12	16%	12%	157	+5.5	276/353/473	197	284	23	11	12%	10%	132	+3.7	267/339/443	176	271	21	9	11%	9%	123	+2.9
●Paul Goldschmidt 2023 · MLB	35	58→61	63→65	53→55	56	303/383/545	242	343	31	8	21%	11%	160	+5.7	269/339/456	187	324	23	9	23%	9%	124	+3.1	258/324/419	162	313	19	9	23%	8%	111	+2.2
★Derrek Lee 2007 · MLB	31	55→63	64→65	49→50	55	295/366/548	253	314	32	14	18%	10%	155	+5.3	299/371/502	203	337	23	8	18%	10%	146	+4.7	299/375/507	207	336	24	5	17%	10%	149	+5.4
★Jeff Bagwell 2002 · MLB	34	54→55	67→65	47→45	63	290/393/568	278	305	34	9	18%	14%	168	+6.3	279/378/513	234	305	29	8	18%	13%	151	+5.0	273/375/494	221	298	28	7	18%	13%	147	+5.4
★Jim Edmonds 2003 · MLB	33	57→59	63→70	42→45	59	293/390/540	246	347	30	6	23%	13%	161	+5.8	280/380/572	292	323	36	5	24%	13%	164	+6.0	272/380/580	308	308	39	5	24%	14%	167	+5.9

Career Stats + Projections

Two-Way Total WAR · bat + arm

Pitching projection

Career Stats + Projections

Career Path Comps

Career Comps

Career Path Comps