Shohei Ohtani — OGILVIE

Shohei OhtaniTWPTWP Los Angeles Dodgers

Age 32 L/R 6'4" / 210 lbs MLB HR -6% Svc 8.000 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION406 act + 285 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 144185vR 201

AVG/OBP/SLG.292 / .399 / .604

PA285

HR19

SB8

K%24

BB%14

BABIP329

ISO312

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 60 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT60

Whiff%

5510.4%

xwOBA

900.430

POWER60

Barrel%

9021.3

Avg EV

9095.0

Bat Spd

8074.5

EYE55

Chase%

9023.5%

SPEED55

Sprint

5027.5

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1578 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

525

1053

—

wRC+

151

198

▶▶R

wOBA

383

445

▶R

ISO

253

369

▶▶R

BABIP

335

315

◀L

25.0%

23.6%

▶R

BB%

8.4%

12.2%

▶▶R

Contract CONFIRMED · hand-curated extension

Status FA

MLB Debut 2018

Service 8.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

NTCDEF 85%

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$18M	+2.4	$19M	+$0.5M
2027	Ext	$46M	+5.4	$40M	-$1M
2028	Ext	$46M	+4.3	$30M	-$8M
2029	Ext	$46M	+3.1	$20M	-$14M
2030	Ext	$46M	+2.0	$12M	-$18M
2031	Ext	$46M	+1.1	$6M	-$21M
2032	Ext	$46M	+0.3	$0.8M	-$24M
2033	Ext	$46M	—	—	—
Totals		$340M		$126M	-$108M

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$108M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	24	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	367	327	95	22	2	23	37	102	2	10	4	291	366	581	947	291	355	28	10	398	163	+26	+0	+0	-9	+10	2.8
2018	24	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	367	326	93	21	2	22	37	102	2	10	4	285	361	564	925	279	350	28	10	400	164	+27	+0	+0	-9	+10	2.9
2019	25	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	425	386	112	21	5	19	33	110	2	12	3	290	349	518	867	228	356	26	8	367	139	+19	+1	+0	-11	+12	2.2
2019	25	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	425	384	110	20	5	18	33	110	2	12	3	286	344	505	850	219	354	26	8	368	140	+19	+1	+0	-11	+12	2.2
2020	26	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	175	153	29	6	0	7	22	50	0	7	1	190	291	366	657	176	229	29	13	299	87	-3	+1	+0	-4	+5	-0.1
2020	26	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	175	153	29	6	0	7	22	50	0	7	1	190	291	366	657	176	229	29	13	298	86	-3	+1	+0	-4	+5	-0.1
2021	27	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	639	537	141	27	8	48	96	189	4	26	10	263	378	611	989	348	308	30	15	395	160	+43	+1	-0	-7	+18	5.7
2021	27	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	639	537	138	26	8	46	96	189	4	26	10	257	374	592	966	335	303	30	15	414	175	+54	+1	-0	-7	+18	6.8
2022	28	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	666	586	162	31	6	35	72	161	5	11	9	276	360	529	889	253	323	24	11	369	140	+30	-1	+0	-17	+19	3.2
2022	28	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	666	586	160	30	6	34	72	161	5	11	9	273	357	519	876	246	320	24	11	382	150	+38	-1	+0	-17	+19	4.0
2023	29	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	599	502	154	27	8	46	91	143	3	20	6	307	416	667	1.083	361	342	24	15	428	186	+58	+2	+0	-15	+17	6.3
2023	29	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	599	497	151	26	8	44	91	143	3	20	6	304	411	654	1.065	350	342	24	15	450	203	+69	+2	+0	-15	+17	7.5
2024	30	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	731	639	204	40	7	57	81	162	6	59	4	319	401	671	1.072	352	346	22	11	441	196	+79	+10	+0	-18	+21	9.3
2024	30	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	731	636	197	38	7	54	81	162	6	59	4	310	391	646	1.037	336	336	22	11	441	195	+79	+10	+0	-18	+21	9.3
2025	31	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	727	613	178	26	9	58	109	187	3	20	6	290	400	646	1.046	356	324	26	15	422	181	+67	+2	+0	-18	+21	7.2
2025	31	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	727	611	172	25	9	55	109	187	3	20	6	282	392	622	1.014	340	315	26	15	433	189	+73	+2	+0	-18	+21	7.9
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	32	MLB	LAD	—	406	337	98	16	2	22	60	93	5	6	2	291	405	546	951	255	336	23	15	391	158	+26	+0	+0	-10	+12	2.9
YTD	32	MLB	LAD	—	406	335	98	16	2	22	60	93	5	6	2	293	405	549	955	257	339	23	15	413	174	+34	+0	+0	-10	+12	3.6
ROS	32	MLB	LAD	100%	285	240	70	12	3	19	40	67	3	8	2	292	399	604	1.003	312	327	24	14	428	186	+28	+1	+0	-7	+8	3.0
ROS	32	MLB	LAD	100%	285	240	69	12	3	18	40	67	3	8	2	287	396	588	983	300	322	24	14	415	175	+24	+1	+0	-7	+8	2.7
FULL	32	MLB	LAD	—	691	577	167	28	5	40	100	160	8	14	4	289	401	563	965	274	332	23	14	401	165	+51	+1	+0	-17	+20	5.5
TOT	32	MLB	LAD	—	691	577	168	28	5	41	100	160	8	14	4	291	403	570	973	279	333	23	14	406	169	+54	+1	+0	-17	+20	5.9
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	33	MLB	LAD	100%	617	520	147	25	6	40	86	148	6	14	4	283	391	585	975	302	319	24	14	418	178	+55	+1	-4	-15	+17	5.5
2028	34	MLB	LAD	100%	567	478	131	22	5	35	79	140	5	9	2	274	383	561	943	287	311	25	14	407	170	+45	+1	-5	-14	+16	4.4
2029	35	MLB	LAD	100%	510	430	114	18	5	31	71	129	4	6	2	265	374	547	921	281	301	25	14	394	160	+35	+0	-6	-13	+14	3.2
2030	36	MLB	LAD	100%	447	379	95	14	4	26	61	117	4	3	1	251	360	515	875	264	291	26	14	381	150	+25	+0	-6	-11	+13	2.1
2031	37	MLB	LAD	100%	381	323	78	11	3	21	52	102	3	2	0	241	352	489	841	248	281	27	14	366	138	+16	+0	-7	-10	+11	1.1
2032	38	MLB	LAD	100%	310	264	62	8	3	16	41	85	2	1	0	235	342	470	812	235	277	27	13	354	129	+10	+0	-8	-8	+9	0.4
2033	39	MLB	LAD	100%	234	199	45	6	2	11	31	65	2	0	0	226	336	442	778	216	273	28	13	343	120	+5	+0	-8	-6	+7	-0.2
2034	40	MLB	LAD	100%	162	139	32	4	2	7	21	45	1	0	0	230	335	439	774	209	273	28	13	338	117	+3	+0	-9	-4	+5	-0.6
2035	41	MLB	LAD	100%	94	81	18	2	1	4	12	26	1	0	0	222	330	420	750	198	273	28	13	334	114	+1	+0	-10	-2	+3	-0.8
2027	33	MLB	LAD	100%	617	520	145	25	6	38	86	148	6	14	4	279	387	569	956	290	314	24	14	405	168	+48	+1	-4	-15	+17	4.8
2028	34	MLB	LAD	100%	567	478	128	21	5	34	79	140	5	9	2	268	377	546	923	278	306	25	14	395	160	+39	+1	-5	-14	+16	3.7
2029	35	MLB	LAD	100%	510	430	112	17	5	30	71	129	4	6	2	260	370	533	903	272	296	25	14	382	151	+29	+0	-6	-13	+14	2.6
2030	36	MLB	LAD	100%	447	379	94	14	4	25	61	117	4	3	1	248	358	504	862	256	287	26	14	369	141	+21	+0	-6	-11	+13	1.6
2031	37	MLB	LAD	100%	381	323	76	11	3	20	52	102	3	2	0	235	347	474	820	238	277	27	14	355	130	+13	+0	-7	-10	+11	0.8
2032	38	MLB	LAD	100%	310	264	60	8	3	15	41	85	2	1	0	227	336	451	786	223	273	27	13	344	121	+7	+0	-8	-8	+9	0.1
2033	39	MLB	LAD	100%	234	199	45	6	2	11	31	65	2	0	0	226	336	442	778	216	269	28	13	333	113	+3	+0	-8	-6	+7	-0.4
2034	40	MLB	LAD	100%	162	139	31	4	2	7	21	45	1	0	0	223	329	432	761	209	269	28	13	328	109	+2	+0	-9	-4	+5	-0.7
2035	41	MLB	LAD	100%	94	81	18	2	1	4	12	26	1	0	0	222	330	420	750	198	269	28	13	324	106	+1	+0	-10	-2	+3	-0.9
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	7936	6783	1828	312	79	482	1035	2028	56	208	54	269	370	552	922	282	312	26	13	395	160	+542	+20	-63	-189	+225	54.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	556	149	26	6	39	85	166	5	17	4	268	370	547	917	279	311	26	13	395	160	+44	+2	-5	-16	+18	4.5
Career	—			—	7936	6796	1867	322	79	503	1035	2028	56	208	54	275	375	567	942	293	317	26	13	395	161	+543	+20	-63	-189	+225	54.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	557	152	26	6	41	85	166	5	17	4	273	375	562	937	289	314	26	13	395	161	+44	+2	-5	-16	+18	4.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	24	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	367	326	93	21	2	22	37	102	2	10	4	285	361	564	925	279	350	28	10	400	164	+27	+0	+0	-9	+10	2.9
2019	25	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	425	384	110	20	5	18	33	110	2	12	3	286	344	505	850	219	354	26	8	368	140	+19	+1	+0	-11	+12	2.2
2020	26	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	175	153	29	6	0	7	22	50	0	7	1	190	291	366	657	176	229	29	13	298	86	-3	+1	+0	-4	+5	-0.1
2021	27	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	639	537	138	26	8	46	96	189	4	26	10	257	374	592	966	335	303	30	15	414	175	+54	+1	-0	-7	+18	6.8
2022	28	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	666	586	160	30	6	34	72	161	5	11	9	273	357	519	876	246	320	24	11	382	150	+38	-1	+0	-17	+19	4.0
2023	29	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	599	497	151	26	8	44	91	143	3	20	6	304	411	654	1.065	350	342	24	15	450	203	+69	+2	+0	-15	+17	7.5
2024	30	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	731	636	197	38	7	54	81	162	6	59	4	310	391	646	1.037	336	336	22	11	441	195	+79	+10	+0	-18	+21	9.3
2025	31	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	727	611	172	25	9	55	109	187	3	20	6	282	392	622	1.014	340	315	26	15	433	189	+73	+2	+0	-18	+21	7.9
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	4329	3730	1050	192	45	280	541	1104	25	165	43	282	375	582	957	301	325	26	12	411	173	+356	+16	-0	-99	+123	40.4

Two-Way Total WAR · bat + arm

Combined projection (what leaderboards & trade value use). The hitter table above is bat-only; pitching is added here.

2026

+11.9

9.3b 2.6p

2027

+9.5

7.1b 2.4p

2028

+7.8

5.9b 1.9p

2029

+6.0

4.6b 1.4p

2030

+4.5

3.5b 1.0p

2031

+3.0

2.4b 0.6p

2032

+1.9

1.6b 0.3p

2033

+0.9

0.9b 0.0p

2034

+0.6

0.6b 0.0p

2035

+0.3

0.3b 0.0p

Pitching projection

Two-way player — pitching line shown alongside the hitter projection above. WAR totals on leaderboards combine both.

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2018	24	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	10	10	52	211	63	22	6	100%	5.2	29.9%	10.4%	19.4%	2.9%	3.31	3.52	+0.6
2018	24	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	10	10	52	211	63	22	6	100%	5.2	29.9%	10.4%	19.4%	2.8%	3.31	3.45	+0.7
2020	26	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	2	2	2	16	3	8	0	100%	0.8	18.8%	50.0%	-31.2%	0.0%	37.80	7.85	-0.1
2020	26	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	2	2	2	16	3	8	0	100%	0.8	18.8%	50.0%	-31.2%	0.0%	37.80	13.90	-0.2
2021	27	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	23	23	130	533	156	42	15	100%	5.7	29.3%	7.9%	21.4%	2.9%	3.18	3.23	+3.3
2021	27	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	23	23	130	533	156	42	15	100%	5.7	29.3%	7.9%	21.4%	2.8%	3.18	3.17	+3.4
2022	28	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	28	28	166	660	219	44	14	100%	5.9	33.2%	6.7%	26.5%	2.2%	2.33	2.35	+5.9
2022	28	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	28	28	166	660	219	44	14	100%	5.9	33.2%	6.7%	26.5%	2.1%	2.33	2.35	+5.9
2023	29	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	23	23	132	531	167	55	18	100%	5.7	31.5%	10.4%	21.1%	3.5%	3.14	3.68	+2.6
2023	29	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	23	23	132	531	167	55	18	100%	5.7	31.5%	10.4%	21.1%	3.4%	3.14	3.59	+2.8
2025	31	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	14	14	47	188	62	9	3	100%	3.4	33.0%	4.8%	28.2%	1.7%	2.87	1.85	+1.5
2025	31	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	14	14	47	188	62	9	3	100%	3.4	33.0%	4.8%	28.2%	1.6%	2.87	1.87	+1.5
▸ 2026 Season
2026	32	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	14	14	86	340	95	26	4	100%	6.1	27.9%	7.6%	20.3%	1.2%	1.79	2.35	+2.7
ROS	32	MLB	LAD	9	9	57	241	72	18	5	100%	6.3	29.7%	7.5%	22.2%	2.0%	2.79	2.66	+1.3
ROS	32	MLB	LAD	9	9	57	241	72	18	5	100%	6.3	29.7%	7.5%	22.2%	2.0%	2.76	2.63	+1.3
2026 TOT	32	MLB	LAD	—	—	143	581	167	44	9	—	—	28.7%	7.6%	21.1%	1.5%	2.19	2.48	+4.9
2026 FULL	32	MLB	LAD	—	—	143	603	167	44	9	—	—	27.6%	7.3%	20.3%	1.5%	2.17	2.49	+4.9
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	33	MLB	LAD	13	13	78	328	103	23	8	100%	6.0	31.4%	7.1%	24.3%	2.3%	3.06	3.01	+1.7
2028	34	MLB	LAD	12	12	71	299	91	23	8	100%	5.9	30.5%	7.6%	22.9%	2.6%	3.21	3.31	+1.2
2029	35	MLB	LAD	11	11	64	268	79	22	8	100%	5.8	29.6%	8.2%	21.4%	3.0%	3.47	3.65	+0.7
2030	36	MLB	LAD	9	9	56	237	68	21	8	100%	6.2	28.5%	8.8%	19.7%	3.3%	3.80	4.02	+0.3
2031	37	MLB	LAD	8	8	49	207	57	20	8	100%	6.1	27.5%	9.4%	18.0%	3.8%	4.17	4.42	+0.1
2032	38	MLB	LAD	7	7	42	178	47	18	7	100%	6.0	26.3%	10.2%	16.2%	4.2%	4.58	4.85	-0.1
2027	33	MLB	LAD	13	13	78	329	104	24	7	100%	6.0	31.4%	7.1%	24.3%	2.3%	3.02	2.97	+1.8
2028	34	MLB	LAD	12	12	71	300	92	23	8	100%	5.9	30.5%	7.6%	22.9%	2.6%	3.17	3.27	+1.3
2029	35	MLB	LAD	11	11	64	270	80	22	8	100%	5.8	29.6%	8.2%	21.4%	2.9%	3.43	3.61	+0.8
2030	36	MLB	LAD	9	9	56	236	68	21	8	100%	6.2	28.5%	8.8%	19.7%	3.2%	3.75	3.97	+0.4
2031	37	MLB	LAD	8	8	49	207	57	20	8	100%	6.1	27.5%	9.4%	18.0%	3.6%	4.11	4.36	+0.1
2032	38	MLB	LAD	7	7	42	177	47	18	7	100%	6.0	26.3%	10.2%	16.2%	4.1%	4.52	4.79	-0.1
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			183	183	1031	4237	1282	351	110	100%	5.6	30.2%	8.3%	22.0%	2.6%	3.08	3.02	+28.7
/ 200 IP	—			36	36	200	822	249	68	21	100%	5.6	30.2%	8.3%	22.0%	2.6%	3.08	3.02	+5.6
Career	—			114	114	614	2479	765	206	62	100%	5.4	30.9%	8.3%	22.5%	2.5%	2.83	2.92	+17.8
/ 200 IP	—			37	37	200	807	249	67	20	100%	5.4	30.9%	8.3%	22.5%	2.5%	2.83	2.92	+5.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Shohei Ohtani (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.09	32.9%	7.4%	2.6%	—	3.30	30.6%	22.9%	212	+0.21	—	—	—
Jacob deGrom R 2026 · 2.11 FIP	32	SP	2.11	38.8%	6.7%	2.6%	.288	1.25	43.3%	39.9%	187	-0.86	0.75	1,489	61
Esmil Rogers R 2025 · 2.88 FIP	31	SP	2.88	21.7%	3.8%	2.1%	.336	5.71	12.5%	3.8%	91	+2.83	2.88	199	57
Charlie Morton R 2026 · 3.01 FIP	32	SP	3.01	26.8%	11.3%	1.4%	.326	2.90	28.8%	20.7%	508	-0.11	2.55	1,534	57
Matt Shoemaker R 2026 · 3.80 FIP	32	SP	3.80	22.2%	8.3%	2.8%	.181	5.05	18.8%	11.1%	159	+1.25	3.24	592	54
Josh Lowey R 2026 · 2.38 FIP	32	SP	2.38	24.7%	6.9%	0.9%	.330	3.43	22.4%	15.6%	53	+1.05	2.28	426	54
Jose Oyervides R 2027 · 2.98 FIP	33	SP	2.98	19.1%	6.2%	1.3%	.333	4.17	21.9%	14.5%	184	+1.19	2.98	407	53
Kenta Maeda R 2026 · 2.86 FIP	32	SP	2.86	32.3%	4.0%	3.6%	.208	3.74	26.2%	19.3%	224	+0.88	2.86	1,092	50
Ricky Nolasco R 2026 · 3.21 FIP	32	SP	3.21	20.2%	6.9%	1.7%	.382	4.52	17.9%	11.7%	379	+1.31	3.21	425	50
Josh Lindblom R 2027 · 3.66 FIP	33	SP	3.66	27.2%	8.4%	3.3%	.308	4.62	21.7%	13.8%	255	+0.96	3.66	348	50
Justin Verlander R 2026 · 3.51 FIP	32	SP	3.51	21.1%	5.8%	2.7%	.265	3.18	29.6%	23.4%	648	-0.33	2.24	1,584	50
Kodai Senga R 2026 · 4.01 FIP	32	SP	4.01	22.6%	11.4%	2.5%	.268	6.38	25.5%	10.8%	39	+2.37	3.40	330	50
Zack Wheeler R 2026 · 2.66 FIP	32	SP	2.66	26.9%	5.4%	2.1%	.281	2.81	29.3%	23.5%	542	+0.15	2.31	1,536	48
Hector Ambriz R 2026 · 3.44 FIP	32	SP	3.44	16.0%	6.4%	1.6%	.273	6.28	10.4%	2.9%	91	+2.84	3.44	155	48
Aaron Wilkerson R 2026 · 3.31 FIP	32	SP	3.31	24.6%	5.6%	2.9%	.300	5.54	21.8%	14.9%	47	+2.23	2.75	902	47
Jarrett Grube R 2027 · 3.49 FIP	33	SP	3.49	18.7%	4.2%	2.6%	.285	4.58	17.3%	9.6%	253	+1.09	3.49	393	47
Tyler Herron R 2024 · 4.17 FIP	30	SP	4.17	16.4%	8.7%	2.5%	.377	—	—	—	—	—	4.17	117	45
Jorge Martinez R 2026 · 3.95 FIP	32	SP	3.95	17.1%	2.6%	3.6%	.355	3.47	16.3%	10.6%	117	-0.48	3.42	214	45
Brad Peacock R 2025 · 4.04 FIP	31	SP-	4.04	25.1%	8.1%	3.7%	.261	4.12	22.8%	12.5%	96	+0.08	2.88	533	45
Jason Hammel R 2026 · 3.43 FIP	32	SP	3.43	24.2%	5.1%	3.2%	.282	4.26	18.4%	11.9%	474	+0.83	3.43	645	44
Dennis O'Grady R 2024 · 3.79 FIP	30	SP	3.79	17.2%	8.1%	2.0%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	157	43

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7	63	30.0%	8.2%	1.16	3.53
Will Smith ('24)	8	56	29.2%	8.8%	1.07	3.60
Joe Jiménez ('24)	7	53	29.8%	8.6%	1.11	4.06
Trevor May ('23)	8	51	27.6%	8.3%	1.18	3.83
Giovanny Gallegos ('24)	6	52	29.4%	6.6%	1.19	3.46
Mychal Givens ('22)	8	57	28.4%	9.8%	1.06	3.40
Diego Castillo ('22)	5	52	28.1%	8.9%	1.07	3.12

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Shohei Ohtani (OGILVIE)	32	60	60	55	55	291/403/570	279	333	41	14	23%	14%	169	+5.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
★Alex Rodriguez 2006 · MLB	31	56→60	67→70	53→55	59	302/397/567	265	324	36	18	19%	12%	179	+7.2	300/400/569	269	325	36	17	19%	13%	180	+7.3	299/403/575	276	320	38	17	19%	13%	173	+7.5
★Aaron Judge 2023 · MLB	31	52→61	73→80	49→50	60	288/390/584	296	325	42	11	25%	14%	180	+7.2	293/418/616	323	340	44	9	25%	17%	198	+8.5	300/437/636	336	347	45	8	25%	19%	188	+8.0
★Brian Giles 2003 · MLB	32	56→63	68→70	50	74	301/424/592	291	290	33	12	11%	17%	194	+8.2	291/407/510	219	299	22	9	11%	16%	167	+6.4	290/407/483	193	303	17	8	10%	16%	151	+5.8
★Jim Edmonds 2001 · MLB	31	55→62	68→70	47→45	63	289/401/561	272	344	37	10	26%	15%	178	+7.1	294/402/560	266	350	33	6	24%	15%	178	+7.1	293/408/600	307	340	38	5	24%	15%	178	+6.8
★Lance Berkman 2009 · MLB	33	57→65	63→70	49→50	65	298/403/547	249	321	29	11	17%	14%	175	+6.9	277/390/494	217	306	25	8	17%	16%	157	+5.7	273/393/487	214	298	25	4	17%	16%	142	+4.2
●Chase Utley 2010 · MLB	31	56→66	60→65	57→55	58	290/389/518	229	308	26	15	16%	11%	163	+6.1	263/365/440	177	279	19	16	13%	11%	134	+4.1	252/357/410	158	267	16	17	12%	11%	116	+2.2
★Freddie Freeman 2021 · MLB	31	59→68	62→65	47→50	62	306/401/551	245	335	28	7	18%	13%	176	+7.0	316/403/532	216	348	24	10	16%	12%	172	+6.7	324/409/538	215	358	24	12	15%	11%	164	+7.3
★J.D. Drew 2006 · MLB	30	56→60	61→65	49→50	69	291/409/530	239	315	28	8	17%	16%	173	+6.8	277/388/477	200	318	20	5	18%	15%	151	+5.3	273/390/480	207	315	21	4	19%	16%	144	+4.1
★Albert Pujols 2011 · MLB	31	59→67	70	48→50	71	319/425/612	293	302	36	12	10%	15%	199	+8.6	291/366/531	240	284	31	8	11%	10%	157	+5.7	283/350/507	224	276	29	6	11%	9%	132	+3.8
●Kevin Youkilis 2011 · MLB	32	58→61	61→65	48→45	60	297/397/539	242	330	26	6	18%	12%	171	+6.7	251/356/441	190	289	21	4	20%	11%	131	+3.9	235/344/409	173	275	19	2	21%	11%	113	+1.7
★David Ortiz 2008 · MLB	32	57→64	71→70	46→40	69	307/420/610	303	316	37	3	16%	16%	197	+8.5	268/370/515	247	292	29	2	19%	14%	154	+5.5	268/362/535	267	263	35	1	15%	13%	139	+4.6
★Josh Donaldson 2018 · MLB	32	51→60	67→70	47→50	63	277/383/545	268	295	35	5	20%	14%	167	+6.4	260/373/508	248	297	31	5	23%	15%	154	+5.4	248/367/491	243	277	32	2	22%	15%	143	+3.4
★Sammy Sosa 2001 · MLB	32	58→60	72→80	44→40	58	309/395/606	297	353	40	7	24%	12%	188	+7.8	302/403/629	327	330	45	3	22%	14%	196	+8.4	295/401/623	328	315	47	1	22%	14%	175	+7.6
★Gary Sheffield 2002 · MLB	33	57→61	69→65	44→50	70	310/417/590	279	297	36	8	12%	15%	191	+8.0	307/405/551	244	300	31	11	10%	13%	177	+7.1	305/405/545	240	297	31	11	10%	13%	170	+7.1
★Carlos Delgado 2003 · MLB	31	54→64	66→70	48→30	67	287/412/556	269	311	32	2	19%	16%	181	+7.3	284/399/553	269	313	33	2	20%	14%	175	+6.9	287/401/563	276	316	34	0	20%	13%	161	+6.2
●Scott Rolen 2005 · MLB	30	55→62	63→65	47→50	60	291/385/545	253	305	29	8	16%	12%	168	+6.4	278/360/483	205	294	22	7	14%	10%	142	+4.6	279/357/450	172	306	16	4	14%	9%	128	+3.2
★Jeff Bagwell 2001 · MLB	33	56	70→65	43→45	65	303/414/592	289	310	37	8	16%	14%	190	+8.0	288/395/546	258	312	32	8	18%	14%	172	+6.7	283/391/532	249	306	31	8	18%	14%	161	+7.0
★Vladimir Guerrero 2006 · MLB	31	60→63	64→70	52→55	59	320/391/568	248	310	32	13	10%	10%	177	+7.1	317/383/541	224	319	28	9	10%	9%	167	+6.4	317/384/536	219	321	27	7	11%	9%	145	+5.2
★Bernie Williams 2001 · MLB	32	57→67	62→60	51→50	60	298/380/542	245	307	28	12	14%	11%	165	+6.2	304/390/498	194	323	22	9	13%	12%	158	+5.8	303/395/477	174	323	19	8	12%	13%	145	+5.0
★Jeff Kent 2001 · MLB	33	62→65	62→65	46→45	62	318/409/565	247	343	27	11	16%	12%	183	+7.4	303/372/529	226	326	25	7	15%	9%	160	+5.9	300/364/523	223	320	25	6	15%	8%	150	+5.6