Shohei Ohtani — OGILVIE

Shohei OhtaniDHTWP Los Angeles Dodgers

Age 32 L/R 6'4" / 210 lbs MLB HR +8%BB -8% Svc 8.000 · Ctrl thru 2033 ILInjured 15-Day (D15)

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 635 proj PA

wRC+†vL 150166vR 171

AVG/OBP/SLG—

PA596

HR0

SB11

K%24

BB%13

BABIP330

ISO316

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

2026 MLB RUNS · solid = so far · light = projected ROS (park-applied)

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$232M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 60 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT60

Whiff%

649.5%

xAVG

900.291

POWER60

Barrel%

9020.6

Avg EV

9094.7

Bat Spd

8074.5

EYE55

Chase%

9021.3%

SPEED55

Sprint

5527.7

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%28%▼▼31% over 83 PA (30d) · proj 24%

BB%12%▼11% over 140 PA (45d) · proj 13%

ISO.268▼▼.222 over 167 AB (60d) · proj .317xISO .266 vs .368 prior — approach backs the move

HR/BB8.9%▼▼6.8% over 117 BBE (60d) · proj 11.1%barrel% 15.8% vs 22.5% prior — approach backs the move

BABIP.324·.303 over 109 BIP (60d) · proj .327xBABIP .364 vs .400 prior

SLASH.263/.357/.531▼▼proj .291/.388/.608

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1578 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

525

1053

—

wRC+

145

187

▶▶R

wOBA

383

445

▶R

ISO

253

369

▶▶R

BABIP

335

315

◀L

25.0%

23.6%

▶R

BB%

8.4%

12.2%

▶▶R

Contract CONFIRMED · hand-curated extension

Status FA

MLB Debut 2018

Service 8.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

NTCDEF 85%

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$4M	+0.2	$0.9M	-$3M
2027	Ext	$46M	+3.8	$37M	-$4M
2028	Ext	$46M	+3.1	$25M	-$13M
2029	Ext	$46M	+2.3	$15M	-$19M
2030	Ext	$46M	+1.5	$9M	-$21M
2031	Ext	$46M	+0.7	$2M	-$25M
2032	Ext	$46M	+0.1	$0.3M	-$24M
2033	Ext	$46M	—	—	—
Totals		$326M		$87M	-$132M

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$132M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2018	24	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	367	326	93	21	2	22	37	102	2	10	4	285	361	564	925	279	350	28	10	400	157	+25	+0	+0	-9	+8	2.4
2019	25	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	425	384	110	20	5	18	33	110	2	12	3	286	344	505	850	219	354	26	8	368	135	+18	+1	+0	-11	+9	1.8
2020	26	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	175	153	29	6	0	7	22	50	0	7	1	190	291	366	657	176	229	29	13	298	88	-3	+1	+0	-4	+4	-0.2
2021	27	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	639	537	138	26	8	46	96	189	4	26	10	257	374	592	966	335	303	30	15	414	166	+50	+1	-0	-7	+14	6.0
2022	28	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	666	586	160	30	6	34	72	161	5	11	9	273	357	519	876	246	320	24	11	382	145	+35	-1	+0	-17	+14	3.2
2023	29	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	599	497	151	26	8	44	91	143	3	20	6	304	411	654	1.065	350	342	24	15	450	191	+65	+2	+0	-15	+13	6.6
2024	30	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	731	636	197	38	7	54	81	162	6	59	4	310	391	646	1.037	336	336	22	11	441	184	+73	+10	+0	-18	+16	8.3
2025	31	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	727	611	172	25	9	55	109	187	3	20	6	282	392	622	1.014	340	315	26	15	433	179	+68	+2	+0	-18	+16	6.9
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	4329	3730	1050	192	45	280	541	1104	25	165	43	282	375	582	957	301	325	26	12	411	164	+332	+16	-0	-99	+94	34.9
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2018	24	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	367	327	93	21	2	22	37	102	2	10	4	284	361	563	923	278	350	28	10	390	150	+22	+0	+0	-9	+8	2.2
2019	25	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	425	386	110	20	5	18	33	110	2	12	3	285	344	503	847	218	354	26	8	361	131	+16	+1	+0	-11	+9	1.6
2020	26	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	175	153	29	6	0	7	22	50	0	7	1	190	291	366	657	176	229	29	13	293	85	-3	+1	+0	-4	+4	-0.3
2021	27	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	639	537	137	26	8	45	96	189	4	26	10	255	372	585	957	330	303	30	15	386	147	+36	+1	-0	-7	+14	4.5
2022	28	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	666	586	159	30	6	33	72	161	5	11	9	271	356	512	868	241	320	24	11	362	131	+25	-1	+0	-17	+14	2.1
2023	29	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	599	502	150	26	8	43	91	143	3	20	6	299	409	639	1.049	341	342	24	15	419	170	+50	+2	+0	-15	+13	5.0
2024	30	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	731	639	198	39	8	52	81	162	6	59	4	310	393	640	1.033	330	336	22	11	428	176	+66	+10	+0	-18	+16	7.5
2025	31	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	727	613	174	26	11	53	109	187	3	20	6	284	394	622	1.016	338	315	26	15	411	165	+56	+2	+0	-18	+16	5.6
2018	24	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	367	327	93	21	2	22	37	102	2	10	4	284	361	563	923	278	348	28	10	390	150	+22	+0	+0	-9	+8	2.2
2018	24	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	—	367	326	93	21	2	22	37	102	2	10	4	285	361	564	925	279	350	28	10	400	150	+22	+0	+0	-9	+8	2.2
2019	25	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	425	386	110	20	5	18	33	110	2	12	3	285	344	503	847	218	351	26	8	361	131	+16	+1	+0	-11	+9	1.6
2019	25	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	—	425	384	110	20	5	18	33	110	2	12	3	286	344	505	850	219	354	26	8	368	131	+16	+1	+0	-11	+9	1.6
2020	26	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	175	153	29	6	0	7	22	50	0	7	1	190	291	366	657	176	229	29	13	293	85	-3	+1	+0	-4	+4	-0.3
2020	26	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	—	175	153	29	6	0	7	22	50	0	7	1	190	291	366	657	176	229	29	13	298	85	-3	+1	+0	-4	+4	-0.3
2021	27	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	639	537	137	26	8	45	96	189	4	26	10	255	372	585	957	330	302	30	15	386	147	+36	+1	-0	-7	+14	4.5
2021	27	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	—	639	537	138	26	8	46	96	189	4	26	10	257	374	592	966	335	303	30	15	414	147	+36	+1	-0	-7	+14	4.5
2022	28	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	666	586	159	30	6	33	72	161	5	11	9	271	356	512	868	241	319	24	11	362	131	+25	-1	+0	-17	+14	2.1
2022	28	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	—	666	586	160	30	6	34	72	161	5	11	9	273	357	519	876	246	320	24	11	382	131	+25	-1	+0	-17	+14	2.1
2023	29	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	599	502	150	26	8	43	91	143	3	20	6	299	409	639	1.049	341	335	24	15	419	170	+50	+2	+0	-15	+13	5.0
2023	29	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	—	599	497	151	26	8	44	91	143	3	20	6	304	411	654	1.065	350	342	24	15	450	170	+50	+2	+0	-15	+13	5.0
2024	30	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	731	639	198	39	8	52	81	162	6	59	4	310	393	640	1.033	330	340	22	11	428	176	+66	+10	+0	-18	+16	7.5
2024	30	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	731	636	197	38	7	54	81	162	6	59	4	310	391	646	1.037	336	336	22	11	441	176	+66	+10	+0	-18	+16	7.5
2025	31	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	727	613	174	26	11	53	109	187	3	20	6	284	394	622	1.016	338	323	26	15	411	165	+56	+2	+0	-18	+16	5.6
2025	31	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	727	611	172	25	9	55	109	187	3	20	6	282	392	622	1.014	340	315	26	15	433	165	+56	+2	+0	-18	+16	5.6
2018	24	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	367	325	93	21	2	22	37	102	2	10	4	286	361	566	927	280	350	28	10	390	150	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	425	387	110	20	5	18	33	110	2	12	3	284	344	501	846	217	354	26	8	361	131	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	175	151	29	6	0	7	22	50	0	7	1	192	291	371	662	179	229	29	13	293	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	27	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	639	534	137	26	8	45	96	189	4	26	10	257	372	588	960	331	303	30	15	386	147	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	666	584	159	30	6	33	72	161	5	11	9	272	356	514	870	241	320	24	11	362	131	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	599	500	150	26	8	43	91	143	3	20	6	300	409	642	1.051	342	342	24	15	419	170	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	731	638	198	39	8	52	81	162	6	59	4	310	393	641	1.034	331	336	22	11	428	176	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	727	609	174	26	11	53	109	187	3	20	6	286	394	626	1.020	340	315	26	15	411	165	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	29	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	599	500	150	26	8	43	91	143	3	20	6	300	409	642	1.051	342	342	24	15	419	170	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	731	638	198	39	8	52	81	162	6	59	4	310	393	641	1.034	331	336	22	11	428	176	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	727	609	174	26	11	53	109	187	3	20	6	286	394	626	1.020	340	315	26	15	411	165	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	32	MLB MLE	LAD	—	596	504	141	26	5	29	80	144	7	11	3	280	386	524	910	244	333	24	13	374	139	+28	+1	+0	-15	+13	2.7
▸ 2026 season
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
SO FAR	32	MLB RAW	LAD	—	596	502	139	25	4	30	80	144	7	11	3	277	382	522	904	245	327	24	13	393	139	+28	+1	+0	-15	+13	2.7
YTD	32	MLB RAW	LAD	—	596	502	139	25	4	30	80	144	7	11	3	277	382	522	904	245	327	24	13	393	152	+37	+1	+0	-15	+13	3.7
ROS	32	MLB MLE	LAD	100%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	—	—	—	—	—	335	—	—	413	166	—	—	+0	-0	—	—
ROS	32	MLB CTX	LAD	100%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	+0	-0	—	—
FULL	32	MLB A+C	LAD	—	596	502	139	25	4	30	80	144	7	11	3	277	382	522	904	245	327	24	13	393	139	+28	+1	+0	-15	+13	2.7
TOT	32	MLB MLE	LAD	—	596	504	141	26	5	29	80	144	7	11	3	280	386	524	910	244	333	24	13	374	139	+28	+1	+0	-15	+13	2.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	33	MLB MLE	LAD	100%	627	533	145	26	6	35	83	154	6	13	3	272	376	540	917	268	318	25	13	400	157	+42	+1	-4	-16	+14	3.8
2028	34	MLB MLE	LAD	100%	602	511	137	24	6	33	80	150	6	9	2	268	374	532	906	264	310	25	13	391	150	+36	+1	-5	-15	+13	3.1
2029	35	MLB MLE	LAD	100%	572	487	126	21	6	30	75	146	5	6	2	259	363	511	875	253	302	26	13	380	143	+29	+0	-6	-14	+12	2.3
2030	36	MLB MLE	LAD	100%	532	453	113	18	5	27	69	138	5	3	1	249	355	490	845	241	293	26	13	368	135	+22	+0	-6	-13	+12	1.5
2031	37	MLB MLE	LAD	100%	482	413	99	15	5	23	62	128	4	2	0	240	344	467	812	228	283	27	13	356	127	+15	+0	-7	-12	+10	0.7
2032	38	MLB MLE	LAD	100%	422	361	83	12	4	19	54	114	4	1	0	230	337	443	780	213	278	27	13	345	120	+10	+0	-8	-11	+9	0.1
2033	39	MLB MLE	LAD	100%	352	302	68	9	3	15	44	96	3	0	0	225	330	424	753	199	274	27	12	335	113	+5	+0	-8	-9	+8	-0.4
2034	40	MLB MLE	LAD	100%	282	242	54	7	3	11	36	77	2	0	0	223	329	413	742	190	274	27	13	331	110	+3	+0	-9	-7	+6	-0.7
2027	33	MLB CTX	LAD	100%	627	533	146	26	5	37	83	154	6	13	3	274	378	550	928	276	313	25	13	393	157	+42	+1	-4	-16	+14	3.8
2028	34	MLB CTX	LAD	100%	602	511	135	23	5	34	80	150	6	9	2	264	370	528	899	264	305	25	13	384	150	+36	+1	-5	-15	+13	3.1
2029	35	MLB CTX	LAD	100%	572	487	124	20	5	31	75	146	5	6	2	255	360	507	867	253	297	26	13	373	143	+29	+0	-6	-14	+12	2.3
2030	36	MLB CTX	LAD	100%	532	453	111	17	4	28	69	138	5	3	1	245	351	486	837	241	288	26	13	362	135	+22	+0	-6	-13	+12	1.5
2031	37	MLB CTX	LAD	100%	482	413	97	14	4	24	62	128	4	2	0	235	340	462	803	228	279	27	13	349	127	+15	+0	-7	-12	+10	0.7
2032	38	MLB CTX	LAD	100%	422	361	83	12	3	20	54	114	4	1	0	230	337	446	782	216	273	27	13	338	120	+10	+0	-8	-11	+9	0.1
2033	39	MLB CTX	LAD	100%	352	302	68	9	3	16	44	96	3	0	0	225	330	434	763	209	269	27	12	329	113	+5	+0	-8	-9	+8	-0.4
2034	40	MLB CTX	LAD	100%	282	242	54	7	2	12	36	77	2	0	0	223	329	417	746	194	269	27	13	324	110	+3	+0	-9	-7	+6	-0.7
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	8200	7032	1868	320	76	482	1044	2107	60	199	51	266	365	538	903	273	309	26	13	388	144	+496	+19	-53	-196	+178	45.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	557	147	25	6	38	83	167	5	16	4	264	364	535	899	271	307	26	13	388	144	+39	+2	-4	-16	+14	3.6
Career	—	MLE		—	8200	7045	1875	326	86	466	1044	2107	60	199	51	266	366	535	901	269	312	26	13	381	144	+496	+19	-53	-196	+178	45.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	558	149	26	7	37	83	167	5	16	4	267	367	538	905	271	314	26	13	381	144	+39	+2	-4	-16	+14	3.6

Two-Way Total WAR · bat + arm

Combined projection (what leaderboards & trade value use). The hitter table above is bat-only; pitching is added here.

2026

+9.9

7.5b 2.4p

2027

+8.4

5.9b 2.5p

2028

+7.0

5.1b 1.9p

2029

+5.6

4.2b 1.4p

2030

+3.4

3.4b 0.0p

2031

+2.5

2.5b 0.0p

2032

+1.8

1.8b 0.0p

2033

+1.2

1.2b 0.0p

2034

+0.8

0.8b 0.0p

Pitching projection

Two-way player — pitching line shown alongside the hitter projection above. WAR totals on leaderboards combine both.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	24	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	10	10	52	211	63	22	6	100%	5.2	29.9%	10.4%	19.4%	2.8%	3.31	3.43	+0.9
2018	24	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	10	10	52	211	63	22	6	100%	5.2	29.9%	10.4%	19.4%	2.8%	3.31	3.45	+0.9
2020	26	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	2	2	2	16	3	8	0	100%	0.8	18.8%	50.0%	-31.2%	0.0%	37.80	7.85	-0.1
2020	26	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	2	2	2	16	3	8	0	100%	0.8	18.8%	50.0%	-31.2%	0.0%	37.80	13.90	-0.2
2021	27	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	23	23	130	533	156	42	15	100%	5.7	29.3%	7.9%	21.4%	2.8%	3.18	3.14	+2.9
2021	27	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	23	23	130	533	156	42	15	100%	5.7	29.3%	7.9%	21.4%	2.8%	3.18	3.17	+2.8
2022	28	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	28	28	166	660	219	44	14	100%	5.9	33.2%	6.7%	26.5%	2.1%	2.33	2.28	+5.7
2022	28	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	28	28	166	660	219	44	14	100%	5.9	33.2%	6.7%	26.5%	2.1%	2.33	2.35	+5.5
2023	29	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	23	23	132	531	167	55	18	100%	5.7	31.5%	10.4%	21.1%	3.3%	3.14	3.58	+2.1
2023	29	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	23	23	132	531	167	55	18	100%	5.7	31.5%	10.4%	21.1%	3.3%	3.14	3.58	+2.1
2023	29	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	23	23	132	531	167	55	18	100%	5.7	31.5%	10.4%	21.1%	3.4%	3.14	3.59	+2.1
2025	31	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	14	14	47	188	62	9	3	100%	3.4	33.0%	4.8%	28.2%	1.5%	2.87	1.76	+1.9
2025	31	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	14	14	47	188	62	9	3	100%	3.4	33.0%	4.8%	28.2%	1.5%	2.87	1.76	+1.9
2025	31	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	14	14	47	188	62	9	3	100%	3.4	33.0%	4.8%	28.2%	1.6%	2.87	1.87	+1.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			114	114	614	2479	765	206	60	100%	5.4	30.9%	8.3%	22.5%	2.4%	2.83	2.89	+15.6
▸ 2026 season
YTD	32	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	14	14	86	340	95	26	4	100%	6.1	27.9%	7.6%	20.3%	1.1%	1.79	2.33	+2.9
YTD	32	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	14	14	86	340	95	26	4	100%	6.1	27.9%	7.6%	20.3%	1.1%	1.79	2.33	+2.9
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	32	MLB RAW	LAD	14	14	86	340	95	26	4	100%	6.1	27.9%	7.6%	20.3%	1.2%	1.79	2.35	+2.9
SO FAR	32	MLB RAW	LAD	14	14	86	340	95	26	4	100%	6.1	27.9%	7.6%	20.3%	1.2%	1.79	2.35	+2.9
ROS	32	MLB MLE	LAD	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	29.7%	7.5%	22.2%	2.3%	2.99	2.83	—
ROS	32	MLB CTX	LAD	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	29.7%	7.5%	22.2%	2.4%	3.04	2.88	—
2026 TOT	32	MLB MLE	LAD	—	—	86	340	95	26	4	—	—	27.9%	7.6%	20.3%	1.2%	1.79	2.33	+2.7
FULL	32	MLB A+C	LAD	—	—	86	362	95	26	4	—	—	26.3%	7.2%	19.1%	1.1%	1.79	2.40	+2.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	33	MLB MLE	LAD	13	13	78	328	103	23	7	100%	6.0	31.4%	7.1%	24.3%	2.3%	3.04	2.98	+1.9
2028	34	MLB MLE	LAD	12	12	71	299	91	23	8	100%	5.9	30.5%	7.6%	22.9%	2.6%	3.19	3.29	+1.4
2029	35	MLB MLE	LAD	11	11	64	268	79	22	8	100%	5.8	29.6%	8.2%	21.4%	2.9%	3.45	3.62	+1.0
2027	33	MLB CTX	LAD	13	13	78	329	104	24	8	100%	6.0	31.4%	7.1%	24.3%	2.4%	3.09	3.03	+1.9
2028	34	MLB CTX	LAD	12	12	71	300	92	23	8	100%	5.9	30.5%	7.6%	22.9%	2.7%	3.25	3.35	+1.4
2029	35	MLB CTX	LAD	11	11	64	270	80	22	8	100%	5.8	29.6%	8.2%	21.4%	3.0%	3.52	3.69	+1.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		149	149	826	3374	1039	274	84	100%	5.5	30.8%	8.1%	22.7%	2.5%	2.94	2.90	+20.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	817	252	66	20	100%	5.5	30.8%	8.1%	22.7%	2.5%	2.94	2.90	+5.0
Career	—	MLE		114	114	614	2479	765	206	59	100%	5.4	30.9%	8.3%	22.5%	2.4%	2.83	2.85	+19.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		37	37	200	807	249	67	19	100%	5.4	30.9%	8.3%	22.5%	2.4%	2.83	2.85	+4.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Shohei Ohtani (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.04	32.9%	7.4%	2.6%	—	3.28	30.6%	22.9%	212	+0.24	—	—	—
Charlie Morton R 2016 · 2.99 FIP	32	SP	2.99	26.8%	11.3%	1.3%	.326	2.96	28.8%	20.7%	508	-0.03	2.52	1,534	60
Esmil Rogers R 2017 · 2.86 FIP	31	SP	2.86	21.7%	3.8%	2.0%	.336	5.64	12.5%	3.8%	91	+2.78	2.86	199	59
Matt Shoemaker R 2019 · 3.80 FIP	32	SP	3.80	22.2%	8.3%	2.8%	.181	5.06	18.8%	11.1%	159	+1.26	3.17	592	57
Josh Lowey R 2017 · 2.36 FIP	32	SP	2.36	24.7%	6.9%	0.9%	.330	3.45	22.4%	15.6%	53	+1.09	2.22	426	54
Jose Oyervides R 2015 · 3.01 FIP	33	SP	3.01	19.1%	6.2%	1.4%	.333	4.09	21.9%	14.5%	184	+1.08	3.01	407	53
Josh Lindblom R 2020 · 3.50 FIP	33	SP	3.50	27.2%	8.4%	3.0%	.308	4.46	21.7%	13.8%	255	+0.96	3.50	348	51
Ricky Nolasco R 2015 · 3.22 FIP	32	SP	3.22	20.2%	6.9%	1.7%	.382	4.41	17.9%	11.7%	379	+1.19	3.22	425	50
Justin Verlander R 2015 · 3.44 FIP	32	SP	3.44	21.1%	5.8%	2.5%	.265	3.25	29.6%	23.4%	648	-0.19	2.32	1,584	50
Garrett Richards R 2020 · 4.05 FIP	32	SP-	4.05	21.6%	8.0%	3.2%	.280	4.16	18.8%	9.8%	179	+0.11	2.31	577	49
Kodai Senga R 2023 · 3.40 FIP	30	SP	3.40	29.1%	11.1%	2.5%	.274	4.52	23.1%	10.6%	183	+1.12	3.40	349	48
Aaron Wilkerson R 2021 · 3.33 FIP	32	SP	3.33	24.6%	5.6%	2.9%	.300	5.51	20.6%	14.7%	47	+2.18	2.75	902	48
Kenta Maeda R 2020 · 2.87 FIP	32	SP	2.87	32.3%	4.0%	3.6%	.208	3.75	26.1%	19.3%	224	+0.88	2.87	1,092	48
Hector Ambriz R 2016 · 3.63 FIP	32	SP	3.63	16.0%	6.4%	2.0%	.273	6.40	10.4%	2.9%	91	+2.77	3.63	155	48
Jarrett Grube R 2015 · 3.75 FIP	33	SP	3.75	18.7%	4.2%	3.1%	.285	4.57	17.3%	9.6%	253	+0.82	3.75	393	47
Jorge Martinez R 2017 · 3.70 FIP	32	SP	3.70	17.1%	2.6%	3.1%	.355	3.71	16.3%	10.6%	117	+0.01	3.53	214	45
Tyler Herron R 2017 · 4.02 FIP	30	SP	4.02	16.4%	8.7%	2.2%	.377	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	117	45
Jacob deGrom R 2020 · 2.11 FIP	32	SP	2.11	38.8%	6.7%	2.6%	.288	1.23	43.3%	39.9%	187	-0.88	0.74	1,538	44
Dennis O'Grady R 2019 · 3.62 FIP	30	SP	3.62	17.2%	8.1%	1.7%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	43
Jason Hammel R 2015 · 3.54 FIP	32	SP	3.54	24.2%	5.1%	3.4%	.282	4.31	18.4%	11.9%	474	+0.77	3.54	645	43
Michael Pineda R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	32	SP	4.06	19.2%	4.4%	3.7%	.291	5.24	14.5%	10.2%	72	+1.18	2.00	786	43

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	72	31.2%	7.6%	0.99	3.21
Diego Castillo ('22)	1.3	52	28.1%	8.9%	1.07	3.12
Sean Doolittle ('21)	1.2	49	28.7%	6.2%	1.18	3.31
Giovanny Gallegos ('24)	1.5	52	29.4%	6.6%	1.19	3.46
Seunghwan Oh ('18)	1.0	69	27.7%	5.9%	1.00	2.78
Keone Kela ('19)	1.1	43	30.1%	9.4%	0.92	3.23
Felipe Vázquez ('19)	1.7	66	29.8%	7.5%	0.60	2.61

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Shohei Ohtani (OGILVIE)	32	60	60	55	55	285/388/562	276	335	37	17	24%	13%	166	+6.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Chase Utley 2010 · MLB	31	56→66	60→65	57→55	58	290/389/518	229	307	26	15	16%	11%	156	+5.4	263/365/439	176	279	19	16	13%	11%	130	+3.5	253/358/409	156	268	16	17	12%	11%	114	+1.8
★Alex Rodriguez 2007 · MLB	32	56→60	65→70	51→55	60	297/394/544	246	327	33	16	20%	13%	164	+6.0	299/401/574	275	319	37	17	19%	13%	172	+6.6	299/407/582	283	313	39	18	18%	13%	167	+6.4
★Freddie Freeman 2021 · MLB	31	59→67	62→65	47→50	62	306/401/551	245	335	28	7	17%	13%	167	+6.2	313/400/523	210	346	24	10	16%	12%	160	+5.7	319/405/525	206	354	22	12	15%	11%	153	+6.2
●Kevin Youkilis 2011 · MLB	32	58→61	61→65	48→45	60	300/400/545	245	333	27	6	18%	12%	165	+6.1	255/359/449	194	294	21	4	20%	11%	130	+3.5	239/347/417	178	279	20	2	21%	11%	114	+1.5
★Lance Berkman 2009 · MLB	33	57→65	63→70	49→50	65	298/403/547	249	320	29	11	17%	14%	166	+6.2	278/391/498	220	307	25	8	17%	16%	151	+5.1	275/395/495	220	299	26	4	17%	16%	140	+3.8
●J.D. Drew 2006 · MLB	30	56→60	61→65	49→50	69	291/409/530	239	315	28	8	17%	16%	165	+6.1	277/388/477	200	318	20	5	18%	15%	145	+4.6	273/390/480	207	315	21	4	19%	16%	139	+3.6
★Jim Edmonds 2001 · MLB	31	55→62	68→70	47→45	63	289/401/561	272	344	37	10	26%	15%	169	+6.4	294/402/560	266	350	33	6	24%	15%	169	+6.4	293/408/600	307	340	38	5	24%	15%	169	+6.1
★Carlos Beltrán 2009 · MLB	32	52→61	61→65	56→60	62	276/367/512	236	287	28	20	15%	12%	146	+4.7	291/376/487	196	317	20	13	14%	12%	143	+4.5	290/361/515	225	313	28	6	17%	10%	138	+4.1
★Josh Donaldson 2018 · MLB	32	51→60	67→70	47→50	63	278/384/546	268	296	35	5	20%	14%	160	+5.7	260/373/508	248	297	31	5	23%	15%	147	+4.8	248/367/492	243	277	32	2	22%	15%	138	+3.0
★Aaron Judge 2023 · MLB	31	53→61	73→80	49→50	60	289/391/588	298	327	43	11	25%	14%	172	+6.6	294/419/620	326	341	44	9	25%	17%	187	+7.7	301/438/641	339	349	45	8	25%	19%	179	+7.3
★Brian Giles 2003 · MLB	32	56→63	68→70	50	74	301/424/592	291	290	33	12	11%	17%	183	+7.4	291/407/510	219	299	22	9	11%	16%	160	+5.7	290/407/483	193	303	17	8	10%	16%	145	+5.1
●Scott Rolen 2005 · MLB	30	55→62	63→65	47→50	60	291/385/545	253	305	29	8	16%	12%	160	+5.7	278/360/483	205	294	22	7	14%	10%	137	+4.0	279/357/450	171	307	16	4	14%	9%	125	+2.7
★Bernie Williams 2001 · MLB	32	57→67	62→60	51→50	60	298/380/542	245	307	28	12	14%	11%	158	+5.5	304/390/498	194	323	22	9	13%	12%	151	+5.1	303/395/477	174	323	19	8	12%	13%	140	+4.3
★Paul Goldschmidt 2018 · MLB	30	57→63	60→65	53→55	64	291/401/517	226	342	27	19	22%	15%	159	+5.6	280/375/509	229	335	29	8	24%	13%	149	+4.9	294/380/523	229	342	29	9	22%	12%	151	+5.7
●Vladimir Guerrero 2006 · MLB	31	60→63	64→70	52→55	59	320/391/568	248	310	32	13	10%	10%	168	+6.3	317/383/541	224	319	28	9	10%	9%	160	+5.7	317/384/536	219	321	27	7	11%	9%	140	+4.5
✕Anthony Rendon 2021 · MLB	31	58→60	61→65	48→50	63	301/397/542	241	313	27	4	14%	12%	164	+6.0	252/351/414	162	282	17	5	16%	12%	119	+2.7	232/338/358	126	266	12	4	16%	12%	98	+0.4
★Jeff Kent 2001 · MLB	33	62→65	62→65	46→45	62	318/409/565	247	343	27	11	16%	12%	173	+6.7	303/372/529	226	326	25	7	15%	9%	153	+5.2	300/364/523	223	320	25	6	15%	8%	144	+4.9
★Ken Griffey Jr. 2002 · MLB	32	50→55	65→70	46→45	60	275/371/530	255	287	33	5	18%	12%	152	+5.1	263/359/497	234	284	30	5	19%	12%	141	+4.3	274/355/514	240	281	33	2	16%	11%	135	+3.5
●Albert Pujols 2012 · MLB	32	56→66	69→70	49→50	64	307/395/583	276	287	37	11	10%	12%	172	+6.6	278/344/494	216	276	27	7	11%	9%	135	+3.8	270/332/470	200	270	24	5	11%	8%	114	+2.4
★Matt Holliday 2012 · MLB	32	59→66	59→65	44→50	58	305/387/530	225	330	26	7	16%	11%	158	+5.6	294/381/500	206	326	24	5	17%	11%	149	+4.9	290/382/485	195	320	23	4	16%	11%	143	+4.8

Career Stats + Projections

Two-Way Total WAR · bat + arm

Pitching projection

Career Stats + Projections

Career Path Comps

Career Comps

Career Path Comps