Shohei Ohtani — OGILVIE

Shohei OhtaniTWP Los Angeles Dodgers

Age 32 L/R 6'4" / 210 lbs MLB HR +15%K -3% Svc 8.000 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 5.2 · 2026

wRC+†vL 130164vR 184

AVG/OBP/SLG.290 / .388 / .610

PA647

HR45

SB20

K%24

BB%13

xwOBA.398

Barrel%23.1%

MLB%100%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

60→60

PWR

60→60

SPD

55→55

EYE

66↘55

trajectory · 10 yrs

8.3peak

2026

Contract

CONFIRMED · hand-curated extension

Status FA

MLB Debut 2018

Service 8.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

NTCDEF 85%

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Ext / FA-deal	$46M	+5.2	$42M	-$4M
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$46M	+5.1	$42M	-$4M
2028	Ext / FA-deal	$46M	+4.2	$36M	-$10M
2029	Ext / FA-deal	$46M	+3.2	$28M	-$18M
2030	Ext / FA-deal	$46M	+2.2	$20M	-$26M
2031	Ext / FA-deal	$46M	+1.3	$12M	-$34M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$46M	+0.5	$2M	-$44M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$46M	—	—	—
Totals		$368M		$181M	-$187M

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$187M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	24	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	367	327	94	21	2	22	37	102	2	10	4	.287	.363	.566	.929	.278	.353	28	10	.392	158	+24	+0	+0	-9	+10	2.6
2019	25	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	425	386	110	19	5	18	33	110	2	12	3	.285	.344	.500	.844	.215	.351	26	8	.359	133	+16	+1	+0	-11	+12	1.9
2020	26	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	175	153	29	6	0	6	22	50	0	7	1	.190	.291	.346	.638	.157	.237	29	13	.282	74	-5	+1	+0	-4	+5	-0.4
2021	27	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	639	537	134	28	7	44	96	189	4	26	10	.250	.367	.574	.941	.324	.294	30	15	.379	148	+35	+1	-0	-7	+18	4.8
2022	28	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	666	586	151	29	4	31	72	161	5	11	9	.258	.344	.480	.823	.222	.302	24	11	.340	118	+14	-1	+0	-17	+19	1.5
2023	29	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	599	502	152	24	8	42	91	143	3	20	6	.303	.413	.633	1.046	.331	.344	24	15	.415	175	+51	+2	+0	-15	+17	5.6
2024	30	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	731	639	201	40	8	52	81	162	6	59	4	.315	.397	.646	1.043	.332	.347	22	11	.426	184	+69	+10	+0	-18	+21	8.4
2025	31	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	727	613	169	23	12	48	109	187	3	20	6	.276	.388	.587	.975	.312	.318	26	15	.394	159	+49	+2	+0	-18	+21	5.4
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	32	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	116	95	23	4	0	5	16	28	3	1	0	.242	.368	.442	.811	.200	.281	24	14	.325	107	+1	+0	+0	-3	+3	0.1
ROS	32	MLB	LAD	531	450	127	20	6	34	71	129	5	19	4	.282	.386	.580	.966	.298	.319	24	13	.416	177	+46	+2	+0	-13	+15	5.1
TOT	32	MLB	LAD	647	545	150	24	6	39	87	157	8	20	4	.275	.383	.556	.939	.281	.314	24	13	.400	164	+47	+2	+0	-16	+18	5.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	33	MLB	LAD	617	524	146	23	7	39	82	121	6	19	4	.279	.382	.573	.955	.294	.289	20	13	.410	172	+50	+2	-4	-15	+17	5.1
2028	34	MLB	LAD	567	481	131	20	6	35	75	116	6	16	3	.272	.377	.557	.934	.285	.287	20	13	.402	166	+42	+2	-5	-14	+16	4.2
2029	35	MLB	LAD	510	433	116	18	6	30	67	109	5	13	2	.268	.372	.545	.917	.277	.284	21	13	.393	159	+34	+2	-6	-13	+14	3.2
2030	36	MLB	LAD	447	382	98	15	5	25	58	100	4	11	2	.257	.360	.518	.879	.262	.280	22	13	.382	150	+25	+1	-6	-11	+13	2.3
2031	37	MLB	LAD	381	326	80	12	4	20	49	89	3	9	1	.245	.349	.491	.840	.245	.276	23	13	.370	141	+18	+1	-7	-10	+11	1.4
2032	38	MLB	LAD	310	265	62	9	3	15	39	75	3	6	0	.234	.339	.460	.799	.226	.270	24	13	.357	131	+11	+1	-8	-8	+9	0.6
2033	39	MLB	LAD	234	201	46	6	3	11	29	58	2	4	0	.229	.332	.453	.785	.224	.264	25	12	.343	121	+6	+1	-8	-6	+7	-0.1
2034	40	MLB	LAD	162	140	31	4	2	7	20	40	1	3	0	.221	.323	.429	.752	.207	.260	25	12	.337	116	+3	+1	-9	-4	+5	-0.5
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			8088	6945	1877	317	88	479	1031	1941	60	265	59	.270	.369	.548	.918	.278	.306	24	13	.386	153	+488	+29	-53	-193	+229	51.0
/ 162G	—			650	558	150	25	7	38	83	156	5	21	5	.269	.368	.543	.911	.274	.305	24	13	.386	153	+39	+2	-4	-16	+18	4.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	24	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	367	326	93	21	2	22	37	102	2	10	4	.285	.361	.564	.925	.279	.350	28	10	.400	164	+27	+0	+0	-9	+10	2.9
2019	25	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	425	384	110	20	5	18	33	110	2	12	3	.286	.344	.505	.850	.219	.354	26	8	.368	140	+19	+1	+0	-11	+12	2.2
2020	26	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	175	153	29	6	0	7	22	50	0	7	1	.190	.291	.366	.657	.176	.229	29	13	.298	86	-3	+1	+0	-4	+5	-0.1
2021	27	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	639	537	138	26	8	46	96	189	4	26	10	.257	.374	.592	.966	.335	.303	30	15	.414	175	+54	+1	-0	-7	+18	6.8
2022	28	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	666	586	160	30	6	34	72	161	5	11	9	.273	.357	.519	.876	.246	.320	24	11	.382	150	+38	-1	+0	-17	+19	4.0
2023	29	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	599	497	151	26	8	44	91	143	3	20	6	.304	.411	.654	1.065	.350	.342	24	15	.450	203	+69	+2	+0	-15	+17	7.5
2024	30	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	731	636	197	38	7	54	81	162	6	59	4	.310	.391	.646	1.037	.336	.336	22	11	.441	195	+79	+10	+0	-18	+21	9.3
2025	31	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	727	611	172	25	9	55	109	187	3	20	6	.282	.392	.622	1.014	.340	.315	26	15	.433	189	+73	+2	+0	-18	+21	7.9
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			4329	3730	1050	192	45	280	541	1104	25	165	43	.282	.375	.582	.957	.301	.325	26	12	.411	173	+356	+16	-0	-99	+123	40.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Shohei Ohtani (OGILVIE)	32	60	60	55	55	.280/.384/.578	.298	.290	42	23	19%	13%	177	+7.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
★Alex Rodriguez 2006 · MLB	31	56→60	67→70	53→55	59	.301/.395/.566	.266	.321	36	18	19%	12%	178	+7.1	.300/.399/.567	.267	.325	36	17	19%	13%	180	+7.2	.299/.403/.575	.276	.320	38	17	19%	13%	173	+7.5
★Brian Giles 2003 · MLB	32	56→63	67→70	50	74	.302/.423/.590	.288	.291	32	11	11%	17%	193	+8.1	.292/.409/.517	.225	.299	23	9	11%	16%	169	+6.5	.290/.407/.483	.193	.303	17	8	10%	16%	151	+5.8
★Carlos Beltrán 2009 · MLB	32	52→61	62→65	56→60	62	.276/.368/.519	.243	.285	29	19	16%	13%	154	+5.5	.286/.372/.481	.195	.311	20	14	14%	12%	146	+4.9	.280/.352/.493	.212	.303	26	6	17%	10%	134	+4.1
●Chase Utley 2010 · MLB	31	57→66	60→65	56→55	57	.293/.389/.522	.229	.312	26	14	15%	10%	164	+6.2	.264/.366/.444	.180	.280	20	16	13%	11%	136	+4.2	.263/.344/.420	.157	.286	15	11	13%	9%	108	+2.0
★Jim Edmonds 2001 · MLB	31	55→62	68→70	47→45	62	.288/.400/.558	.270	.343	36	10	26%	15%	176	+7.0	.294/.403/.559	.265	.351	33	6	24%	15%	178	+7.1	.293/.408/.600	.307	.340	38	5	24%	15%	178	+6.8
★Josh Donaldson 2018 · MLB	32	51→61	66→65	48→50	62	.277/.380/.539	.262	.295	34	5	19%	14%	164	+6.2	.260/.373/.504	.244	.297	31	5	23%	15%	153	+5.4	.250/.368/.494	.244	.279	32	2	22%	15%	142	+3.3
★Bernie Williams 2001 · MLB	32	57→67	62→60	51→50	60	.296/.378/.538	.242	.306	28	12	14%	11%	163	+6.1	.304/.390/.503	.199	.322	22	10	13%	12%	159	+5.8	.303/.395/.477	.174	.323	19	8	12%	13%	145	+5.0
★J.D. Drew 2006 · MLB	30	56→60	61→65	49→50	68	.291/.407/.530	.238	.314	28	8	17%	16%	172	+6.7	.278/.390/.481	.203	.318	20	5	18%	15%	153	+5.4	.273/.390/.480	.207	.315	21	4	19%	16%	144	+4.1
★Jeff Bagwell 2001 · MLB	33	55→56	69→65	43→45	65	.302/.412/.588	.286	.309	37	8	16%	14%	189	+7.9	.289/.396/.550	.261	.312	32	8	18%	14%	173	+6.8	.283/.391/.532	.249	.306	31	8	18%	14%	161	+7.0
★Aaron Judge 2023 · MLB	31	53→63	74→80	49→50	59	.293/.392/.594	.302	.332	43	10	25%	14%	183	+7.5	.300/.422/.629	.329	.350	44	9	25%	17%	202	+8.8	.310/.446/.655	.345	.364	45	8	25%	19%	193	+8.4
★Gary Sheffield 2002 · MLB	33	57→61	69→65	44→50	70	.310/.417/.590	.280	.297	37	8	12%	15%	192	+8.1	.308/.406/.553	.245	.301	31	11	10%	13%	178	+7.1	.305/.405/.545	.240	.297	31	11	10%	13%	170	+7.1
★David Ortiz 2008 · MLB	32	56→64	71→70	46→40	69	.305/.416/.609	.304	.312	38	3	17%	16%	195	+8.3	.272/.375/.525	.253	.294	30	2	18%	14%	159	+5.8	.298/.391/.548	.250	.307	31	2	14%	13%	151	+4.7
●José Ramírez 2023 · MLB	30	51→61	64→70	55→60	59	.274/.356/.531	.257	.271	31	20	13%	11%	154	+5.4	.277/.349/.498	.221	.278	26	26	12%	10%	142	+4.6	.278/.349/.491	.214	.277	26	33	11%	9%	124	+3.9
★Carlos Delgado 2003 · MLB	31	55→65	66→70	47→30	68	.292/.417/.565	.273	.316	32	2	18%	16%	185	+7.6	.284/.400/.553	.269	.313	33	2	20%	14%	176	+7.0	.287/.401/.563	.276	.316	34	0	20%	13%	161	+6.2
★Ken Griffey Jr. 2002 · MLB	32	50→55	65→70	46→45	61	.274/.372/.530	.255	.286	34	6	18%	12%	159	+5.8	.264/.360/.499	.235	.284	30	5	19%	12%	147	+5.0	.274/.355/.514	.240	.281	33	2	16%	11%	139	+4.1
★Lance Berkman 2009 · MLB	33	57→65	64→70	49→50	65	.298/.403/.551	.253	.319	31	10	17%	14%	176	+7.0	.278/.391/.500	.222	.307	25	8	17%	15%	158	+5.8	.273/.393/.493	.220	.296	26	4	17%	16%	142	+4.2
●Cliff Floyd 2003 · MLB	30	57→61	61→65	52→55	57	.297/.381/.538	.241	.321	28	18	17%	11%	165	+6.2	.280/.368/.504	.224	.308	26	11	18%	11%	151	+5.3	.272/.361/.492	.220	.293	28	10	18%	11%	136	+3.5
★Jeff Kent 2001 · MLB	33	61→65	62→65	46→45	62	.316/.407/.561	.245	.340	27	11	16%	12%	180	+7.3	.304/.375/.530	.226	.327	25	7	15%	9%	160	+5.9	.300/.364/.523	.223	.320	25	6	15%	8%	150	+5.6
●Scott Rolen 2005 · MLB	30	55→62	63→65	48→50	60	.288/.381/.538	.250	.301	29	8	16%	12%	165	+6.2	.279/.363/.488	.209	.295	22	7	14%	10%	144	+4.8	.279/.357/.447	.168	.308	15	4	14%	9%	128	+3.1
★Vladimir Guerrero 2006 · MLB	31	60→63	64→70	51→55	59	.321/.393/.569	.248	.312	32	13	10%	10%	178	+7.1	.318/.383/.544	.226	.319	28	10	10%	9%	168	+6.4	.317/.384/.536	.219	.321	27	7	11%	9%	145	+5.2

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)