Kenta Maeda — OGILVIE

Kenta Maeda P Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders

Age 38 RHP 6'1" / 185 lbs AAA peak 0.5 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 7 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.74

FIP4.91

K%18.0%

BB%7.6%

K-BB%10.4%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 7 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

SI (7%)

CU (1%)

FB (27%)

CH (36%)

SL-1.3 (35%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	28	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	32	32	176	716	179	44	20	100%	5.5	25.0%	6.1%	18.9%	2.7%	3.48	3.24	+3.6
2016	28	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	32	32	176	716	179	44	20	100%	5.5	25.0%	6.1%	18.9%	2.8%	3.48	3.29	+3.5
2017	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	26	138	578	141	35	22	87%	4.6	25.1%	5.9%	19.2%	3.8%	4.16	3.81	+1.8
2017	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	26	138	578	141	35	22	87%	4.6	24.4%	6.1%	18.3%	3.8%	4.16	3.89	+1.7
2018	30	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	39	20	125	532	153	39	13	51%	3.2	28.8%	7.3%	21.4%	2.3%	3.81	2.89	+3.1
2018	30	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	39	20	125	532	153	39	13	51%	3.2	28.8%	7.3%	21.4%	2.4%	3.81	2.94	+3.0
2019	31	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	37	26	154	624	169	50	22	70%	4.2	27.1%	8.0%	19.1%	3.4%	4.04	3.68	+2.2
2019	31	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	37	26	154	624	169	50	22	70%	4.2	27.1%	8.0%	19.1%	3.5%	4.04	3.74	+2.1
2020	32	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	11	11	67	248	80	10	9	100%	6.1	32.3%	4.0%	28.2%	3.6%	2.70	2.87	+1.7
2020	32	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	11	11	67	248	80	10	9	100%	6.1	32.3%	4.0%	28.2%	3.6%	2.70	2.91	+1.7
2021	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	110	467	118	32	17	100%	5.0	24.9%	6.8%	18.1%	3.5%	4.57	3.79	+1.5
2021	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	110	467	118	32	17	100%	5.0	25.3%	6.9%	18.4%	3.6%	4.57	3.83	+1.4
2023	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	24	118	483	134	33	18	96%	4.7	27.1%	6.7%	20.4%	3.7%	3.98	3.71	+1.7
2023	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	24	118	483	134	33	18	96%	4.7	27.1%	6.7%	20.4%	3.7%	3.98	3.71	+1.7
2023	35	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	24	118	483	134	33	18	96%	4.7	27.7%	6.8%	20.9%	3.7%	3.98	3.65	+1.8
2024	36	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	18	115	498	102	31	22	60%	3.8	19.8%	6.4%	13.4%	4.7%	6.01	4.84	+0.1
2024	36	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	18	115	498	102	31	22	60%	3.8	19.8%	6.4%	13.4%	4.7%	6.01	4.84	+0.1
2024	36	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	18	115	498	102	31	22	60%	3.8	20.5%	6.2%	14.3%	4.4%	6.01	4.62	+0.4
2025	37	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	20	108	469	91	45	14	74%	4.0	16.2%	8.2%	7.9%	3.1%	5.58	4.50	+0.5
2025	37	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	20	108	469	91	45	14	74%	4.0	16.2%	8.2%	7.9%	3.1%	5.58	4.50	+0.5
2025	37	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	20	108	469	91	45	14	74%	4.0	19.4%	9.6%	9.8%	3.0%	5.58	4.35	+0.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			226	172	987	4086	1055	272	142	76%	4.4	25.8%	6.7%	19.2%	3.5%	4.20	3.66	+14.8
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	38	MLB	DET	1	1	7	30	5	2	1	100%	7.0	18.0%	7.6%	10.4%	3.6%	4.74	4.91	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	39	MLB MLE	DET	12	12	73	307	58	23	12	100%	6.1	18.9%	7.5%	11.3%	4.1%	4.94	5.07	-0.1
2028	40	MLB MLE	DET	10	10	63	264	47	22	12	100%	6.3	17.7%	8.2%	9.5%	4.5%	5.28	5.50	-0.4
2027	39	MLB CTX	DET	12	12	73	308	58	23	12	100%	6.1	18.9%	7.5%	11.3%	3.9%	4.85	4.98	-0.1
2028	40	MLB CTX	DET	10	10	63	266	47	22	11	100%	6.3	17.7%	8.2%	9.5%	4.3%	5.17	5.39	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		249	195	1122	4658	1160	317	165	78%	4.5	24.9%	6.8%	18.1%	3.6%	4.29	3.81	+14.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		44	35	200	830	207	57	29	78%	4.5	24.9%	6.8%	18.1%	3.6%	4.29	3.81	+2.6
Career	—	MLE		253	199	1111	4615	1148	312	156	79%	4.4	24.9%	6.8%	18.1%	3.4%	4.26	3.72	+14.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	36	200	831	207	56	28	79%	4.4	24.9%	6.8%	18.1%	3.4%	4.26	3.72	+2.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kenta Maeda (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.91	18.0%	7.6%	3.6%	—	5.27	18.3%	10.5%	135	+0.36	—	—	—
Logan Ondrusek R 2021 · 4.34 FIP	36	SP	4.34	19.2%	7.3%	3.5%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	4.34	138	61
Kyle Lohse R 2016 · 4.97 FIP	37	SP	4.97	14.8%	6.0%	4.3%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.77	211	59
Walter Silva R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	38	SP	4.15	14.8%	7.4%	2.5%	.311	3.91	10.4%	3.7%	209	-0.24	3.67	428	52
Jeremy Guthrie R 2016 · 4.85 FIP	37	SP	4.85	11.6%	8.6%	3.0%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	4.85	235	51
Adam Wainwright R 2020 · 4.11 FIP	38	SP	4.11	20.6%	5.7%	3.7%	.245	3.99	17.8%	11.2%	499	-0.12	2.03	1,127	48
Ryan Vogelsong R 2015 · 4.45 FIP	38	SP-	4.45	18.1%	9.4%	3.1%	.295	4.79	16.7%	6.3%	82	+0.34	4.45	217	47
Tim Hudson R 2015 · 4.41 FIP	40	SP	4.41	12.2%	6.9%	2.7%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	4.41	124	45
Colby Lewis R 2016 · 4.67 FIP	36	SP	4.67	15.5%	5.9%	3.9%	.239	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	321	44
Sergio Mitre R 2019 · 4.54 FIP	38	SP	4.54	11.8%	6.5%	2.9%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	4.54	156	44
Chris Smith R 2017 · 5.08 FIP	36	SP-	5.08	15.6%	7.5%	4.3%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	413	43
Jonathan Castellanos R 2019 · 5.24 FIP	37	SW	5.24	11.0%	9.0%	3.5%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	394	43
Jose Oyervides R 2019 · 5.66 FIP	37	SP	5.66	16.3%	11.2%	4.6%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	407	42
Ivan Maldonado R 2016 · 5.41 FIP	36	SP	5.41	6.4%	9.7%	3.0%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.60	172	37
Pablo Ortega R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	38	SP	4.52	8.6%	7.3%	2.2%	.291	4.24	11.5%	6.0%	236	-0.28	4.01	375	37
J.D. Martin R 2019 · 5.89 FIP	36	SP	5.89	13.9%	12.8%	4.3%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	4.85	289	36
Brad Penny R 2015 · 3.68 FIP	37	SP	3.68	12.0%	5.8%	1.6%	.346	—	—	—	—	—	3.68	135	35
Yasutomo Kubo R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	38	SP	3.98	20.4%	4.7%	3.6%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	152	32
Scott Kazmir L 2021 · 4.58 FIP	37	SP	4.58	19.2%	8.8%	3.6%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.84	395	29
Wandy Rodriguez L 2015 · 3.83 FIP	36	SP-	3.83	19.4%	8.5%	2.4%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	101	29
Francisley Bueno L 2017 · 4.44 FIP	36	SP	4.44	11.7%	8.4%	2.3%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	138	29

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	73	18.2%	7.8%	1.55	4.96
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Jharel Cotton ('22)	1.2	58	19.8%	9.2%	1.59	4.50
Andrew Suárez ('23)	1.1	74	18.2%	7.8%	1.51	5.02
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Sam Gaviglio ('19)	1.5	98	19.3%	6.9%	1.69	4.84