Kenta Maeda
P
Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders
Age 38
RHP
6'1" / 185 lbs
AAA
peak 0.5 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 91 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131121vR 112
ERA4.75
FIP4.94
K%18.5%
BB%8.2%
K-BB%10.3%
ROS IP91
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 91 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
SI (7%)
CU (1%)
FB (27%)
CH (36%)
SL-1.3 (35%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 28 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 32 | 32 | 176 | 716 | 179 | 44 | 20 | 100% | 5.5 | 25.0% | 6.1% | 18.9% | 3.0% | 3.48 | 3.39 | +4.1 |
| 2016 | 28 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 32 | 32 | 176 | 716 | 179 | 44 | 20 | 100% | 5.5 | 25.0% | 6.1% | 18.9% | 2.8% | 3.48 | 3.29 | +4.3 |
| 2017 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 26 | 138 | 578 | 141 | 35 | 22 | 87% | 4.6 | 25.1% | 5.9% | 19.2% | 4.2% | 4.16 | 4.02 | +2.2 |
| 2017 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 26 | 138 | 578 | 141 | 35 | 22 | 87% | 4.6 | 24.4% | 6.1% | 18.3% | 3.8% | 4.16 | 3.89 | +2.4 |
| 2018 | 30 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 39 | 20 | 125 | 532 | 153 | 39 | 13 | 51% | 3.2 | 28.8% | 7.3% | 21.4% | 2.6% | 3.81 | 3.02 | +3.5 |
| 2018 | 30 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 39 | 20 | 125 | 532 | 153 | 39 | 13 | 51% | 3.2 | 28.8% | 7.3% | 21.4% | 2.4% | 3.81 | 2.94 | +3.6 |
| 2019 | 31 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 37 | 26 | 154 | 624 | 169 | 50 | 22 | 70% | 4.2 | 27.1% | 8.0% | 19.1% | 3.7% | 4.04 | 3.88 | +2.7 |
| 2019 | 31 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 37 | 26 | 154 | 624 | 169 | 50 | 22 | 70% | 4.2 | 27.1% | 8.0% | 19.1% | 3.5% | 4.04 | 3.74 | +3.0 |
| 2020 | 32 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 11 | 11 | 67 | 248 | 80 | 10 | 9 | 100% | 6.1 | 32.3% | 4.0% | 28.2% | 3.6% | 2.70 | 2.86 | +1.4 |
| 2020 | 32 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 11 | 11 | 67 | 248 | 80 | 10 | 9 | 100% | 6.1 | 32.3% | 4.0% | 28.2% | 3.6% | 2.70 | 2.91 | +1.4 |
| 2021 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 22 | 110 | 467 | 118 | 32 | 17 | 100% | 5.0 | 24.9% | 6.8% | 18.1% | 3.5% | 4.57 | 3.78 | +2.1 |
| 2021 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 22 | 110 | 467 | 118 | 32 | 17 | 100% | 5.0 | 25.3% | 6.9% | 18.4% | 3.6% | 4.57 | 3.83 | +2.0 |
| 2023 | 35 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 24 | 118 | 483 | 134 | 33 | 18 | 96% | 4.7 | 27.3% | 6.9% | 20.4% | 3.7% | 3.98 | 3.70 | +2.3 |
| 2023 | 35 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 24 | 118 | 483 | 134 | 33 | 18 | 96% | 4.7 | 27.7% | 6.8% | 20.9% | 3.7% | 3.98 | 3.65 | +2.4 |
| 2024 | 36 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 18 | 115 | 498 | 102 | 31 | 22 | 60% | 3.8 | 19.8% | 6.4% | 13.4% | 5.0% | 6.01 | 4.96 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 36 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 18 | 115 | 498 | 102 | 31 | 22 | 60% | 3.8 | 20.5% | 6.2% | 14.3% | 4.4% | 6.01 | 4.62 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 37 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 20 | 108 | 469 | 91 | 45 | 14 | 74% | 4.0 | 17.1% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 2.9% | 5.58 | 4.49 | +1.2 |
| 2025 | 37 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 20 | 108 | 469 | 91 | 45 | 14 | 74% | 4.0 | 19.4% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 3.0% | 5.58 | 4.35 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 38 | MLB | DET | 14 | 14 | 85 | 357 | 66 | 29 | 13 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.5% | 8.2% | 10.3% | 3.6% | 4.75 | 4.94 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 39 | MLB | DET | 12 | 12 | 73 | 307 | 59 | 25 | 12 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.3% | 8.1% | 11.2% | 4.1% | 4.96 | 5.10 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 40 | MLB | DET | 10 | 10 | 63 | 264 | 48 | 23 | 12 | 100% | 6.3 | 18.2% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 4.5% | 5.30 | 5.53 | -0.7 |
| 2027 | 39 | MLB | DET | 12 | 12 | 73 | 308 | 60 | 25 | 12 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.3% | 8.1% | 11.2% | 3.9% | 4.87 | 5.01 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 40 | MLB | DET | 10 | 10 | 63 | 266 | 48 | 23 | 11 | 100% | 6.3 | 18.2% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 4.3% | 5.19 | 5.42 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 249 | 195 | 1122 | 4658 | 1162 | 320 | 165 | 78% | 4.5 | 25.0% | 6.9% | 18.1% | 3.5% | 4.30 | 3.81 | +20.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 44 | 35 | 200 | 830 | 207 | 57 | 29 | 78% | 4.5 | 25.0% | 6.9% | 18.1% | 3.5% | 4.30 | 3.81 | +3.7 | ||
| Career | — | 253 | 199 | 1111 | 4615 | 1154 | 319 | 164 | 79% | 4.4 | 25.0% | 6.9% | 18.1% | 3.6% | 4.26 | 3.82 | +20.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 36 | 200 | 831 | 208 | 57 | 30 | 79% | 4.4 | 25.0% | 6.9% | 18.1% | 3.6% | 4.26 | 3.82 | +3.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kenta Maeda (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.94 | 18.5% | 8.2% | 3.6% | — | 5.30 | 18.8% | 10.4% | 135 | +0.36 | — | — | — |
| Logan Ondrusek R 2024 · 4.35 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.35 | 19.2% | 7.3% | 3.5% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.35 | 138 | 61 |
| Walter Silva R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 38 | SP | 3.95 | 14.8% | 7.4% | 2.1% | .311 | 3.96 | 10.4% | 3.7% | 209 | +0.01 | 3.68 | 428 | 51 |
| Kyle Lohse R 2025 · 5.53 FIP | 37 | SP | 5.53 | 14.8% | 6.0% | 5.3% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.98 | 211 | 51 |
| Tomoyuki Sugano R 2024 · 5.23 FIP | 36 | SP | 5.23 | 13.4% | 6.4% | 4.5% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.91 | 241 | 51 |
| Ryan Vogelsong R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 38 | SP- | 4.46 | 18.1% | 9.4% | 3.1% | .295 | 4.67 | 16.7% | 6.3% | 82 | +0.21 | 4.46 | 217 | 47 |
| Jeremy Guthrie R 2025 · 5.00 FIP | 37 | SP | 5.00 | 11.6% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.00 | 235 | 46 |
| Tim Hudson R 2028 · 4.42 FIP | 40 | SP | 4.42 | 12.2% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 124 | 45 |
| Adam Wainwright R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 38 | SP | 3.98 | 20.6% | 5.7% | 3.5% | .245 | 3.89 | 17.8% | 11.2% | 499 | -0.09 | 2.03 | 1,127 | 44 |
| Sergio Mitre R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 38 | SP | 4.48 | 11.8% | 6.5% | 2.8% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.48 | 156 | 44 |
| Jonathan Castellanos R 2025 · 5.02 FIP | 37 | SW | 5.02 | 11.0% | 9.0% | 3.1% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 394 | 43 |
| Chris Smith R 2024 · 5.11 FIP | 36 | SP- | 5.11 | 15.6% | 7.5% | 4.3% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.93 | 413 | 42 |
| Jose Oyervides R 2025 · 5.90 FIP | 37 | SP | 5.90 | 16.3% | 11.2% | 5.0% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.98 | 407 | 42 |
| Colby Lewis R 2024 · 4.70 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.70 | 15.5% | 5.9% | 3.9% | .239 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 321 | 39 |
| Ivan Maldonado R 2024 · 5.68 FIP | 36 | SP | 5.68 | 6.4% | 9.7% | 3.5% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.91 | 172 | 37 |
| J.D. Martin R 2024 · 5.98 FIP | 36 | SP | 5.98 | 13.9% | 12.8% | 4.4% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.84 | 289 | 36 |
| Pablo Ortega R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 38 | SP | 4.41 | 8.6% | 7.3% | 2.0% | .291 | 4.33 | 11.5% | 6.0% | 236 | -0.08 | 3.92 | 375 | 36 |
| Scott Kazmir L 2025 · 4.59 FIP | 37 | SP | 4.59 | 19.2% | 8.8% | 3.6% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.72 | 395 | 29 |
| Wandy Rodriguez L 2024 · 3.84 FIP | 36 | SP- | 3.84 | 19.4% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 101 | 29 |
| Francisley Bueno L 2024 · 4.60 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.60 | 11.7% | 8.4% | 2.6% | .351 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 138 | 29 |
| John Lackey R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 38 | SP | 4.88 | 20.4% | 6.8% | 4.8% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 577 | 28 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 73 | 18.7% | 8.3% | 1.55 | 4.98 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Alex Young ('23) | 5 | 52 | 19.5% | 8.6% | 1.61 | 4.43 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| JC Ramírez ('17) | 3 | 83 | 17.0% | 7.7% | 1.30 | 4.33 |
| Jharel Cotton ('22) | 4 | 58 | 19.8% | 9.2% | 1.59 | 4.50 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |