Kenta Maeda
P
Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders
+0.2
WAR
Age 38
RHP
6'1" / 185 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA4.97
FIP4.81
xFIP6.24
SIERA5.04
K%20.0%
BB%8.2%
K-BB%11.8%
IP91
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
K†4045
FB Velo
p1090.8
Whiff%
p4023.9%
K%
p3419.8%
xwOBA vs
p380.326
SI (7%)
CU (1%)
FB (27%)
CH (36%)
SL-1.3 (35%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 28 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 32 | 32 | 176 | 716 | 179 | 44 | 20 | 25.0% | 6.1% | 2.9% | 3.48 | 3.38 | +3.8 |
| 2017 | 29 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 30 | 26 | 138 | 578 | 141 | 35 | 22 | 25.1% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 4.16 | 3.99 | +2.1 |
| 2018 | 30 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 39 | 20 | 125 | 532 | 153 | 39 | 13 | 28.8% | 7.3% | 2.3% | 3.81 | 2.87 | +3.5 |
| 2019 | 31 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 37 | 26 | 154 | 624 | 169 | 50 | 22 | 27.1% | 8.0% | 3.3% | 4.04 | 3.61 | +2.9 |
| 2020 | 32 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 11 | 11 | 67 | 248 | 80 | 10 | 9 | 32.3% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 2.70 | 3.00 | +1.5 |
| 2021 | 33 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 22 | 22 | 110 | 467 | 118 | 32 | 17 | 24.9% | 6.8% | 3.7% | 4.57 | 3.91 | +1.7 |
| 2023 | 35 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 25 | 24 | 118 | 483 | 134 | 33 | 18 | 27.3% | 6.9% | 4.1% | 3.98 | 3.89 | +1.9 |
| 2024 | 36 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 30 | 18 | 115 | 498 | 102 | 31 | 22 | 19.8% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 6.01 | 4.75 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 37 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 27 | 20 | 108 | 469 | 91 | 45 | 14 | 17.1% | 9.6% | 3.2% | 5.58 | 4.63 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 38 | MLB | LAD | 15 | 15 | 85 | 357 | 64 | 29 | 13 | 17.9% | 8.2% | 3.6% | 4.94 | 4.98 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 39 | MLB | LAD | 13 | 13 | 72 | 306 | 58 | 24 | 11 | 19.1% | 7.7% | 3.7% | 4.92 | 4.90 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 253 | 199 | 1111 | 4615 | 1154 | 319 | 162 | 25.0% | 6.9% | 3.5% | 4.26 | 3.79 | +19.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 36 | 200 | 831 | 208 | 57 | 29 | 25.0% | 6.9% | 3.5% | 4.26 | 3.79 | +3.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kenta Maeda (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.98 | 17.9% | 8.2% | 3.6% | — | 4.90 | 19.1% | 11.4% | 72 | -0.08 | — | — | — |
| Walter Silva R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 38 | SP- | 4.13 | 14.8% | 7.4% | 2.5% | .311 | 3.92 | 10.4% | 3.7% | 209 | -0.21 | 3.67 | 428 | 56 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2026 · 5.44 FIP | 38 | SW | 5.44 | 15.9% | 7.2% | 5.1% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.21 | 225 | 53 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 38 | SW | 4.17 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.0% | .272 | 3.38 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.79 | 2.67 | 295 | 52 |
| Jeremy Guthrie R 2025 · 4.87 FIP | 37 | SP- | 4.87 | 11.6% | 8.6% | 3.0% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.87 | 235 | 52 |
| Kyle Lohse R 2025 · 5.01 FIP | 37 | SW | 5.01 | 14.8% | 6.0% | 4.4% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.01 | 211 | 50 |
| Chien-Ming Wang R 2024 · 4.56 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.56 | 13.0% | 7.8% | 2.9% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.26 | 183 | 49 |
| Ervin Santana R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 38 | SW | 4.32 | 18.8% | 7.6% | 3.4% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.75 | 720 | 49 |
| Tim Hudson R 2028 · 4.40 FIP | 40 | SP- | 4.40 | 12.2% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.40 | 124 | 48 |
| Sergio Mitre R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 38 | SP- | 4.54 | 11.8% | 6.5% | 2.9% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.54 | 156 | 48 |
| Colby Lewis R 2024 · 4.67 FIP | 36 | SP- | 4.67 | 15.5% | 5.9% | 3.9% | .239 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 321 | 47 |
| Zack Segovia R 2024 · 4.52 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.52 | 17.6% | 13.6% | 2.2% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.37 | 144 | 47 |
| Adam Wainwright R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 38 | SW | 3.99 | 20.6% | 5.7% | 3.5% | .245 | 3.91 | 17.8% | 11.2% | 499 | -0.08 | 2.03 | 1,127 | 46 |
| Jose Oyervides R 2025 · 5.76 FIP | 37 | SP- | 5.76 | 16.3% | 11.2% | 4.8% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.00 | 407 | 46 |
| J.D. Martin R 2024 · 5.87 FIP | 36 | SP- | 5.87 | 13.9% | 12.8% | 4.2% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.85 | 289 | 44 |
| Brad Ziegler R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 38 | SW | 4.01 | 16.4% | 6.2% | 2.8% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.61 | 257 | 44 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2024 · 4.65 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.65 | 15.8% | 7.1% | 3.6% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 119 | 43 |
| Jonathan Castellanos R 2025 · 5.22 FIP | 37 | SW | 5.22 | 11.0% | 9.0% | 3.5% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 394 | 43 |
| Matt Belisle R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.33 | 15.4% | 6.2% | 3.2% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.49 | 174 | 43 |
| Chris Smith R 2024 · 4.81 FIP | 36 | SP- | 4.81 | 15.6% | 7.5% | 3.8% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 413 | 43 |
| Pablo Ortega R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 38 | SP- | 4.51 | 8.6% | 7.3% | 2.2% | .291 | 4.23 | 11.5% | 6.0% | 236 | -0.28 | 4.03 | 375 | 43 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.