Kenta Maeda

P Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders
Age 39 RHP 6'1" / 185 lbs AAA peak 0.5 · 2027
Overview
AAARP
YearAgeLvl / TeamGGSIPERAFIPK%BB%WARMLE rates
202335MIX2 levels25241183.983.6527.7%6.8%2.5K 27.3% · BB 6.7% · FIP 3.70
202436MIX2 levels30181156.014.6220.5%6.2%1.1K 19.8% · BB 6.4% · FIP 4.84
202537MIX2 levels27201085.584.3519.4%9.6%1.3K 16.8% · BB 8.2% · FIP 4.45
202638No MLB games played
2027PROJ39MLBDET1184.824.9116.9%8.2%0.0
2028PROJ40MLBDET99564.884.9817.8%8.1%0.2
Last 3 seasons WAR 4.9  ·  Next 2 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
Contract
No contract data on file.
CompsFrancisco Campos (age 42) · Walter Silva (age 39) · Pablo Ortega (age 39)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110
ERA4.82
FIP4.91
K%16.9%
BB%8.2%
K-BB%8.8%
Proj IP85
Value2027 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 85 IP
K: -3.4 runs (Runs saved by strikeouts vs lg-avg K%)-3KBB: +0.4 runs (Runs saved by walk suppression vs lg-avg BB%)+0BBCONTACT: -3.9 runs (Runs saved on contact quality (HR suppression) vs lg)-4CONTACTSTAM: +8.5 runs (Replacement credit for innings volume)+9STAMTotal WAR: +0.17 (85 IP)+0.2WAR
0.50.22728
Contract

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

YearAge LvlTeam GGSIPBF KBBHR GS%IP/G K%BB%K-BB%HR% ERAFIP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
201628MLB MLELos Angeles Dodgers32321767161794420100%5.525.0%6.1%18.9%2.7%3.483.24+4.7
201628MLB RAWLos Angeles Dodgers32321767161794420100%5.525.0%6.1%18.9%2.8%3.483.29+4.6
201729MIX MLE2 levels3026138578141352287%4.625.1%5.9%19.2%3.8%4.163.81+2.6
201729MIX RAW2 levels3026138578141352287%4.624.4%6.1%18.3%3.8%4.163.89+2.5
201830MLB MLELos Angeles Dodgers3920125532153391351%3.228.8%7.3%21.4%2.3%3.812.89+3.9
201830MLB RAWLos Angeles Dodgers3920125532153391351%3.228.8%7.3%21.4%2.4%3.812.94+3.8
201931MLB MLELos Angeles Dodgers3726154624169502270%4.227.1%8.0%19.1%3.4%4.043.68+3.2
201931MLB RAWLos Angeles Dodgers3726154624169502270%4.227.1%8.0%19.1%3.5%4.043.74+3.1
202032MLB MLEMinnesota Twins11116724880109100%6.132.3%4.0%28.2%3.6%2.702.87+2.1
202032MLB RAWMinnesota Twins11116724880109100%6.132.3%4.0%28.2%3.6%2.702.91+2.1
202133MIX MLE2 levels22221104671183217100%5.024.9%6.8%18.1%3.5%4.573.79+2.1
202133MIX RAW2 levels22221104671183217100%5.025.3%6.9%18.4%3.6%4.573.83+2.1
202335MIX MLE2 levels2524118483134331896%4.727.3%6.7%20.5%3.7%3.983.70+2.4
202335MIX RAW2 levels2524118483134331896%4.727.7%6.8%20.9%3.7%3.983.65+2.5
202436MIX MLE2 levels3018115498102312260%3.819.8%6.4%13.4%4.7%6.014.84+0.7
202436MIX MLE2 levels3018115498102312260%3.819.8%6.4%13.4%4.7%6.014.84+0.7
202436MIX RAW2 levels3018115498102312260%3.820.5%6.2%14.3%4.4%6.014.62+1.1
202537MIX MLE2 levels272010846991451474%4.016.8%8.2%8.5%3.1%5.584.45+1.2
202537MIX MLE2 levels272010846991451474%4.016.8%8.2%8.5%3.1%5.584.45+1.2
202537MIX RAW2 levels272010846991451474%4.019.4%9.6%9.8%3.0%5.584.35+1.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career—2261729874086105527214276%4.425.8%6.7%19.2%3.5%4.203.66+20.7
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
202739MLBDET11834631100%8.016.9%8.2%8.8%3.3%4.824.91+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
202840MLB MLEDET995623742199100%6.217.8%8.1%9.7%3.8%4.975.07+0.2
202840MLB CTXDET995623642199100%6.217.8%8.1%9.7%3.6%4.884.98+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— RAW23518110434323109729115177%4.425.4%6.7%18.6%3.5%4.233.72+21.1
/ 200 IP— RAW4535200829210562977%4.425.4%6.7%18.6%3.5%4.233.72+4.0
Career— MLE25319911114615115231215679%4.425.0%6.8%18.2%3.4%4.263.71+20.9
/ 200 IP— MLE4636200831207562879%4.425.0%6.8%18.2%3.4%4.263.71+4.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 100 IPFIP 4.29 → 4.45 (+0.16)K% 19.5% → 16.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×= MLE
K% /BF19.48%—×0.86016.76%
BB% (unintentional) /BF9.15%—×0.9008.24%
HR / BF /BF3.05%÷1.070×1.1003.14%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 114).

Result: FIP 4.29 → 4.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAASt. Paul Saints · 13 IPFIP 2.64 → 2.98 (+0.34)K% 30.9% → 26.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×= MLE
K% /BF30.91%—×0.86026.58%
BB% (unintentional) /BF9.09%—×0.9008.18%
HR / BF /BF1.82%÷1.009×1.1001.98%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 102).

Result: FIP 2.64 → 2.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 A+Rancho Cucamonga Quakes · 4 IPFIP 3.90 → 4.18 (+0.27)K% 4.8% → 3.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×= MLE
K% /BF4.76%—×0.7703.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF9.52%—×1.15010.95%
HR / BF /BF0.00%÷1.085×1.2500.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 117).

Result: FIP 3.90 → 4.18, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player162sIP/yrK%BB%HR/9ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION5.611324.7%7.1%1.354.28
Scott Bankhead ('86-'95, 10 WAR*)4.510021.2%*7.3%*1.36*4.16*
Drew Smyly ('24)5.710423.1%7.7%1.494.20
Frankie Montas ('25)3.99823.6%8.2%1.204.20
Mike Minor ('22)7.012821.6%7.0%1.304.25
Greg Harris ('88-'95, 10 WAR*)4.513019.7%*7.9%*1.40*4.10*
Bob Johnson ('69-'77, 6 WAR*)3.511523.4%*8.9%*1.49*4.12*