Drew Smyly

P Chicago Cubs

Age 38 LHP 6'2" / 188 lbs MLB Svc 15.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 1.9 · 2027

Overview

MLBRPExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	33	MIX2 levels	23	23	110	3.59	4.17	21.0%	5.6%	1.6	K 20.4% · BB 5.8% · FIP 4.16
2023	34	MLBCHC	41	23	142	5.00	4.67	22.5%	8.9%	1.2
2024	35	MIX2 levels	51	1	62	3.65	4.30	22.9%	8.3%	0.2	K 21.8% · BB 8.6% · FIP 4.56
2025	36	No MLB games played
2026	37	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	38	MLBCHC	28	28	175	4.23	4.49	22.0%	9.0%	1.8
2028PROJ	39	MLBCHC	19	19	115	4.57	4.85	20.8%	9.7%	0.6
2029PROJ	40	MLBCHC	13	13	82	4.99	5.27	19.7%	10.4%	0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.0 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service15.000First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$12M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024

xwOBA vs60

K%47

FB Velo10

CompsJuan Antonio Pena (age 37) · Jorge Castillo (age 37) · Mauricio Lara (age 38)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 95103vR 112

ERA4.23

FIP4.49

K%22.0%

BB%9.0%

K-BB%12.9%

Proj IP175

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 175 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1090.1

Whiff%

p5025.2%

p4721.8%

xwOBA vs

p600.302

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2012

Service 15.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$12M	+1.9	$15M	+$4M
Totals		$12M		$15M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2012	23	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	23	18	99	416	94	32	12	78%	4.3	22.6%	7.7%	14.9%	3.0%	3.99	3.82	+1.9
2012	23	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	23	18	99	416	94	32	12	78%	4.3	22.6%	7.7%	14.9%	2.9%	3.99	3.74	+2.0
2013	24	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	63	0	76	303	81	16	4	0%	1.2	26.7%	5.3%	21.5%	1.4%	2.37	2.27	+2.1
2013	24	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	63	0	76	303	81	16	4	0%	1.2	26.7%	5.3%	21.5%	1.3%	2.37	2.28	+2.1
2014	25	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	28	25	153	618	133	40	18	89%	5.5	21.5%	6.5%	15.0%	3.0%	3.24	3.75	+3.1
2014	25	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	28	25	153	618	133	40	18	89%	5.5	21.5%	6.5%	15.0%	2.9%	3.24	3.68	+3.2
2015	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	19	19	89	378	103	29	14	100%	4.7	27.0%	8.0%	19.0%	4.1%	3.83	4.09	+1.4
2015	26	MIX RAW	4 levels	19	19	89	378	103	29	14	100%	4.7	27.2%	7.7%	19.6%	3.7%	3.83	3.81	+1.7
2016	27	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	30	30	175	738	167	47	32	100%	5.8	22.6%	6.4%	16.3%	4.5%	4.88	4.44	+2.0
2016	27	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	30	30	175	738	167	47	32	100%	5.8	22.6%	6.4%	16.3%	4.3%	4.88	4.37	+2.1
2018	29	A MLE	South Bend Cubs	1	1	1	3	3	0	0	100%	1.0	100.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.00	-5.34	—
2018	29	A RAW	South Bend Cubs	1	1	1	3	3	0	0	100%	1.0	100.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.00	-2.90	—
2019	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	24	127	564	138	58	34	86%	4.5	24.1%	10.3%	13.8%	5.7%	6.11	5.49	-0.1
2019	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	24	127	564	138	58	34	86%	4.5	24.5%	10.3%	14.2%	6.0%	6.11	5.78	-0.5
2020	31	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	7	5	26	111	42	9	2	71%	3.8	37.8%	8.1%	29.7%	1.9%	3.42	2.00	+1.1
2020	31	MLB RAW	San Francisco Giants	7	5	26	111	42	9	2	71%	3.8	37.8%	8.1%	29.7%	1.8%	3.42	1.92	+1.2
2021	32	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	29	23	127	546	117	38	27	79%	4.4	21.4%	7.0%	14.5%	4.9%	4.48	4.89	+0.7
2021	32	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	29	23	127	546	117	38	27	79%	4.4	21.4%	7.0%	14.5%	4.9%	4.48	4.92	+0.7
2022	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	110	463	97	26	18	100%	4.8	20.4%	5.8%	14.5%	3.7%	3.59	4.16	+1.6
2022	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	110	463	97	26	18	100%	4.8	21.0%	5.6%	15.3%	3.9%	3.59	4.17	+1.6
2023	34	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	41	23	142	626	141	56	26	56%	3.5	22.5%	8.9%	13.6%	4.3%	5.00	4.70	+1.2
2023	34	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	41	23	142	626	141	56	26	56%	3.5	22.5%	8.9%	13.6%	4.2%	5.00	4.67	+1.2
2024	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	1	62	266	61	22	10	2%	1.2	21.8%	8.6%	13.2%	4.0%	3.65	4.56	-0.0
2024	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	1	62	266	61	22	10	2%	1.2	21.8%	8.6%	13.2%	4.0%	3.65	4.56	-0.0
2024	35	MIX RAW	2 levels	51	1	62	266	61	22	10	2%	1.2	22.9%	8.3%	14.7%	3.8%	3.65	4.30	+0.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			330	179	1145	4851	1119	361	190	54%	3.5	23.1%	7.4%	15.6%	3.9%	4.20	4.25	+15.5
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	38	MLB	CHC	28	28	175	739	162	67	23	100%	6.2	22.0%	9.0%	12.9%	3.1%	4.23	4.49	+1.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	39	MLB MLE	CHC	19	19	115	485	101	47	17	100%	6.0	20.8%	9.7%	11.1%	3.6%	4.64	4.92	+0.6
2029	40	MLB MLE	CHC	13	13	82	345	68	36	14	100%	6.3	19.7%	10.4%	9.2%	4.0%	5.07	5.35	+0.0
2028	39	MLB CTX	CHC	19	19	115	486	101	47	17	100%	6.1	20.8%	9.7%	11.1%	3.4%	4.57	4.85	+0.6
2029	40	MLB CTX	CHC	13	13	82	346	68	36	13	100%	6.3	19.7%	10.4%	9.2%	3.9%	4.99	5.27	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		362	211	1341	5681	1288	444	220	58%	3.7	22.7%	7.8%	14.9%	3.9%	4.28	4.30	+17.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		54	31	200	847	192	66	33	58%	3.7	22.7%	7.8%	14.9%	3.9%	4.28	4.30	+2.6
Career	—	MLE		343	192	1188	5032	1168	376	200	56%	3.5	23.2%	7.5%	15.7%	4.0%	4.23	4.27	+16.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		58	32	200	847	197	63	34	56%	3.5	23.2%	7.5%	15.7%	4.0%	4.23	4.27	+2.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2019 AAASan Antonio Missions · 13 IPFIP 3.02 → 3.69 (+0.68)K% 36.0% → 31.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.00%	—	×0.880	31.68%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.00%	—	×1.050	6.30%
HR / BF /BF	4.00%	÷0.977	×1.100	4.50%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 95).

Result: FIP 3.02 → 3.69, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAADurham Bulls · 11 IPFIP 4.56 → 5.01 (+0.45)K% 25.0% → 22.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.880	22.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.54%	—	×1.050	12.12%
HR / BF /BF	3.85%	÷1.039	×1.100	4.07%

Result: FIP 4.56 → 5.01, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 A+Charlotte Stone Crabs · 8 IPFIP 2.50 → 3.81 (+1.32)K% 25.7% → 19.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.71%	—	×0.770	19.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.150	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	2.86%	÷0.822	×1.250	4.35%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 64).

Result: FIP 2.50 → 3.81, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Drew Smyly (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.1%	—	5.10	20.4%	10.3%	196	+0.61	—	—	—
Juan Antonio Pena L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	37	SP-	4.20	13.6%	9.9%	1.8%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	149	52
Jorge Castillo L 2019 · 4.91 FIP	37	SP	4.91	19.6%	8.1%	4.5%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.50	408	49
Mauricio Lara L 2017 · 3.70 FIP	38	SP	3.70	12.0%	6.3%	1.5%	.301	4.96	12.3%	5.5%	111	+1.26	3.62	444	33
Jason Lane L 2015 · 5.56 FIP	38	SP	5.56	8.4%	6.2%	4.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	5.56	164	29
Yasutomo Kubo R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	38	SP	3.98	20.4%	4.7%	3.6%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	152	19
Hisanori Takahashi L 2012 · 4.04 FIP	37	SU	4.04	24.5%	6.1%	4.1%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	240	18
Jose Oyervides R 2019 · 5.66 FIP	37	SP	5.66	16.3%	11.2%	4.6%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	407	17
Walter Silva R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	38	SP	4.15	14.8%	7.4%	2.5%	.311	3.91	10.4%	3.7%	209	-0.24	3.67	453	16
Jonathan Castellanos R 2019 · 5.24 FIP	37	SW	5.24	11.0%	9.0%	3.5%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	394	15
Pablo Ortega R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	38	SP	4.52	8.6%	7.3%	2.2%	.291	4.24	11.5%	6.0%	236	-0.28	4.01	375	11
Logan Duran R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	37	SP-	3.66	15.5%	8.9%	1.4%	.427	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	187	10
Ivan Maldonado R 2016 · 5.41 FIP	36	SP	5.41	6.4%	9.7%	3.0%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.60	172	7
Keiichi Yabu R 2008 · 3.48 FIP	39	SU	3.48	15.9%	9.3%	1.0%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	126	5
Jon Leicester R 2015 · 3.76 FIP	36	SP	3.76	12.3%	5.9%	1.7%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	113	3
Juan Sandoval R 2019 · 5.41 FIP	38	SU	5.41	15.9%	7.2%	5.0%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.24	225	3
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	1
Hector Navarro R 2017 · 3.53 FIP	37	SU	3.53	11.5%	5.6%	1.3%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	2.30	126	0
Chris Nichting R 2002 · 4.67 FIP	36	SU	4.67	16.6%	3.3%	4.6%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	103	0
Hiroki Kuroda R 2013 · 3.44 FIP	38	SP	3.44	18.2%	5.0%	2.3%	.279	3.39	17.8%	13.5%	199	-0.05	2.96	1,319	0
Rudy Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	36	SU	4.72	15.8%	7.1%	3.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	119	0

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.6	108	22.6%	8.2%	1.47	4.28
Mark Leiter ('90-'01, 5 WAR*)	5.9	118	20.7%*	7.8%*	1.36*	4.61*
Chase Anderson ('24)	5.5	101	19.7%	8.1%	1.48	4.41
Derek Holland ('21)	7.3	113	19.7%	8.4%	1.35	4.62
Bobby Bolin ('61-'73, 12 WAR*)	7.9	121	22.7%*	9.6%*	1.33*	4.11*
Marco Estrada ('19)	6.3	139	21.0%	7.6%	1.43	4.29
Scott Bankhead ('86-'95, 10 WAR*)	4.5	100	21.2%*	7.3%*	1.36*	4.16*