Drew Smyly
P
Chicago Cubs
Age 37
LHP
6'2" / 188 lbs
MLB
peak 0.5 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION66 proj IP · Marcel + aging
ERA4.52
FIP4.79
xFIP4.57
SIERA4.13
K%20.3%
BB%8.9%
K-BB%11.4%
IP67
K†5050
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2026
FB Velo
p1090.1
Whiff%
p5025.2%
K%
p4721.8%
xwOBA vs
p600.302
SI (48%)
CU (49%)
CT (3%)
FB-1.3 (48%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.4 (SP) / 4.55 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 26 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 19 | 19 | 89 | 378 | 103 | 29 | 14 | 27.0% | 8.0% | 4.2% | 3.83 | 4.13 | +1.1 |
| 2016 | 27 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 30 | 30 | 175 | 738 | 167 | 47 | 32 | 22.6% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 4.88 | 4.51 | +1.8 |
| 2018 | 29 | A | South Bend Cubs | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | -5.34 | +0.1 |
| 2019 | 30 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 28 | 24 | 127 | 564 | 138 | 58 | 34 | 24.1% | 10.3% | 5.9% | 6.11 | 5.61 | -0.3 |
| 2020 | 31 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 7 | 5 | 26 | 111 | 42 | 9 | 2 | 37.8% | 8.1% | 2.0% | 3.42 | 2.01 | +0.8 |
| 2021 | 32 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 29 | 23 | 127 | 546 | 117 | 38 | 27 | 21.4% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 4.48 | 4.89 | +0.8 |
| 2022 | 33 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 23 | 23 | 110 | 463 | 97 | 26 | 18 | 20.4% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 3.59 | 4.03 | +1.8 |
| 2023 | 34 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 41 | 23 | 142 | 626 | 141 | 56 | 26 | 22.5% | 8.9% | 4.1% | 5.00 | 4.56 | +1.4 |
| 2024 | 35 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 51 | 1 | 62 | 266 | 61 | 22 | 10 | 21.8% | 8.6% | 3.8% | 3.65 | 4.43 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 37 | MLB | CHC | 12 | 12 | 67 | 282 | 57 | 25 | 10 | 20.3% | 8.9% | 3.4% | 4.52 | 4.79 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 38 | MLB | CHC | 58 | — | 58 | 243 | 46 | 23 | 9 | 19.1% | 9.6% | 3.9% | 4.94 | 5.22 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 229 | 149 | 860 | 3695 | 860 | 288 | 164 | 23.3% | 7.8% | 4.4% | 4.61 | 4.55 | +8.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 53 | 35 | 200 | 860 | 200 | 67 | 38 | 23.3% | 7.8% | 4.4% | 4.61 | 4.55 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Drew Smyly (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.79 | 20.3% | 8.9% | 3.4% | — | 5.22 | 19.1% | 9.5% | 58 | +0.43 | — | — | — |
| Jorge De La Rosa L 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 37 | SW | 3.99 | 19.3% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 405 | 68 |
| J.A. Happ L 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 37 | SU | 4.34 | 21.4% | 7.7% | 3.8% | .221 | 4.94 | 18.2% | 11.0% | 152 | +0.60 | 3.28 | 1,053 | 64 |
| Scott Kazmir L 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 37 | SW | 4.59 | 19.2% | 8.8% | 3.6% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.72 | 395 | 57 |
| Francisley Bueno L 2025 · 4.60 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.60 | 11.7% | 8.4% | 2.6% | .351 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 138 | 57 |
| Wandy Rodriguez L 2025 · 3.84 FIP | 36 | SP- | 3.84 | 19.4% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 101 | 53 |
| Jonathan Sánchez L 2025 · 4.65 FIP | 36 | SP- | 4.65 | 18.1% | 8.3% | 3.7% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.65 | 109 | 52 |
| Craig Breslow L 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 37 | SU | 5.02 | 17.8% | 15.1% | 2.7% | .400 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.22 | 159 | 52 |
| Tsuyoshi Wada L 2023 · 3.68 FIP | 34 | SP- | 3.68 | 16.8% | 7.1% | 2.0% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 119 | 50 |
| Horacio Ramirez L 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 37 | SW | 4.15 | 8.6% | 4.5% | 2.2% | .306 | 4.62 | 5.7% | -0.3% | 35 | +0.47 | 3.28 | 199 | 48 |
| Oscar Rivera L 2025 · 5.36 FIP | 36 | SU | 5.36 | 9.8% | 7.8% | 3.8% | .252 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 237 | 47 |
| Juan Antonio Pena L 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 37 | SP- | 4.15 | 13.6% | 9.9% | 1.7% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 149 | 47 |
| Arturo Lopez L 2025 · 5.22 FIP | 36 | SP- | 5.22 | 12.2% | 6.8% | 4.2% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.24 | 445 | 45 |
| Jorge Castillo L 2026 · 5.23 FIP | 37 | SP- | 5.23 | 19.6% | 8.1% | 5.0% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.40 | 408 | 45 |
| Chris Narveson L 2024 · 4.40 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.40 | 12.2% | 10.4% | 1.8% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.40 | 249 | 44 |
| Mauricio Lara L 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 37 | SP- | 3.67 | 12.1% | 7.6% | 1.1% | .294 | 4.24 | 12.2% | 5.6% | 219 | +0.57 | 3.57 | 444 | 43 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 37 | SW | 4.04 | 22.0% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .289 | 4.08 | 16.8% | 1.6% | 44 | +0.04 | 3.51 | 219 | 34 |
| Jean Machi R 2024 · 3.92 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.92 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 186 | 34 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 38 | SW | 4.26 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .272 | 3.34 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.92 | 2.67 | 295 | 34 |
| Matt Belisle R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 37 | SW | 3.61 | 21.9% | 6.5% | 2.8% | .241 | 4.59 | 15.4% | 9.2% | 34 | +0.98 | 2.51 | 174 | 33 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2024 · 4.59 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.59 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 4.2% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 208 | 33 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.