George Springer

RF Toronto Blue Jays

Age 37 R/R 6'1" / 220 lbs MLB Svc 12.965 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

MLB40-MANExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2024	34	MLBTOR	614	.220/.304/.371	19	16	91	-0.2
2025	35	MLBTOR	586	.309/.397/.560	32	18	163	4.7
2026	36	MLBTOR	517	.249/.320/.405	15	12	104	1.0
2027PROJ	37	MLBTOR	324	.263/.342/.450	12	8	122	1.2
2028PROJ	38	MLBTOR	207	.250/.328/.421	7	3	111	-0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 5.5 · Next 2 projected WAR 0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service12.965First FA2028NTC

2027Ext / FA-deal$7M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

xwOBA83

Bat Spd72

Barrel%67

Avg EV44

Speed37

Form.253/.322/.416 ▼▼ rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .262/.339/.449

CompsRuben Rivera (age 37) · Mike Cameron (age 35) · Reggie Sanders (age 37)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 122122vR 121

AVG/OBP/SLG.263 / .342 / .450

PA324

HR12

SB8

K%19

BB%10

BABIP291

ISO182

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · Contract

ToolsStatcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT

xAVG

570.257

POWER

Barrel%

6710.8

Avg EV

4488.7

Bat Spd

7273.6

SPEED

Sprint

3726.9

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%20%▼20% over 85 PA (60d) · proj 19%

BB%9%▼7% over 85 PA (60d) · proj 10%

ISO.163▼.114 over 79 AB (60d) · proj .187

HR/BB4.1%▼1.6% over 62 BBE (60d) · proj 5.5%

BABIP.291·.295 over 61 BIP (60d) · proj .290

SLASH.253/.322/.416▼▼proj .262/.339/.449

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1246 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

294

952

—

wRC+

101

133

▶▶R

wOBA

318

365

▶R

ISO

156

211

▶▶R

BABIP

246

299

▶▶R

21.4%

18.3%

▶R

BB%

13.6%

9.7%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2014

Service 12.965 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

NTC

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$7M	+1.1	$9M	+$2M
Totals		$7M		$9M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2012	22	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	81	73	16	3	0	2	6	25	1	4	2	219	287	342	630	123	304	31	7	283	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	22	A+	Lancaster JetHawks	—	500	433	137	18	10	22	56	131	6	28	6	316	402	557	959	240	404	26	11	415	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	22	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	—	85	70	20	4	3	4	13	20	2	5	0	286	412	600	1.012	314	348	24	15	435	181	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	23	AAA	Oklahoma City RedHawks	—	267	219	68	7	4	18	41	65	4	22	3	311	426	626	1.052	315	362	24	15	448	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	23	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	323	273	81	20	0	19	42	96	5	23	5	297	400	579	979	282	390	30	13	422	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	24	MLB	Houston Astros	—	345	295	68	8	1	20	39	114	9	5	2	231	338	468	806	237	294	33	11	355	122	+9	+0	-6	-4	+7	0.6
2014	24	AAA	Oklahoma City RedHawks	—	61	51	18	4	1	3	9	15	1	4	0	353	459	647	1.106	294	455	25	15	476	136	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	25	MLB	Houston Astros	—	451	388	107	19	2	16	50	109	8	16	4	276	370	459	829	183	342	24	11	366	133	+18	+2	-1	-5	+10	2.4
2015	25	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	20	18	5	1	0	0	2	6	0	1	0	278	350	333	683	56	417	30	10	315	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	26	MLB	Houston Astros	—	744	644	168	29	5	29	88	178	11	9	10	261	359	457	816	196	317	24	12	363	130	+26	-2	-1	-8	+16	3.2
2017	27	MLB	Houston Astros	—	629	548	155	29	0	34	64	111	11	5	7	283	368	522	890	239	297	18	10	388	147	+35	-2	-3	+2	+14	4.8
2018	28	MLB	Houston Astros	—	620	544	144	26	0	22	64	122	5	6	4	265	345	434	779	169	303	20	10	346	119	+14	-0	-1	+2	+13	2.9
2019	29	MLB	Houston Astros	—	556	479	140	20	3	39	67	113	6	6	2	292	386	591	977	299	305	20	12	420	170	+46	+0	+4	+2	+12	6.6
2020	30	MLB	Houston Astros	—	222	189	50	6	2	14	24	38	5	1	2	265	359	540	899	275	259	17	11	387	148	+13	-1	+1	+1	+5	1.9
2021	31	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	342	299	79	19	1	22	37	79	4	4	1	264	352	555	907	291	286	23	11	392	150	+20	+0	+2	+1	+7	3.2
2021	31	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	18	17	3	1	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	176	222	235	458	59	214	17	0	213	-1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	32	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	583	513	137	22	4	25	54	100	7	14	2	267	343	472	814	205	285	17	9	356	125	+18	+2	-1	+2	+13	3.4
2023	33	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	683	613	158	25	1	21	60	125	5	20	5	258	328	405	733	147	291	18	9	327	106	+5	+2	-3	-7	+15	1.2
2024	34	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	614	545	120	19	3	19	60	115	6	16	1	220	304	371	675	150	245	19	10	304	91	-6	+3	-5	-7	+13	-0.2
2025	35	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	586	498	154	27	1	32	69	111	8	18	1	309	397	560	957	251	340	19	12	413	163	+44	+3	-7	-6	+13	4.7
2026	36	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	517	462	115	23	2	15	47	95	3	12	2	249	320	405	725	156	282	18	9	323	104	+3	+2	+0	-6	+11	1.0
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	6892	6017	1595	272	25	308	723	1410	88	132	43	265	351	472	823	207	297	20	10	362	131	+256	+9	-23	-32	+149	36.7
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2012	22	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	81	75	12	2	0	1	4	31	1	4	2	160	212	227	439	67	268	38	5	215	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	22	A+ MLE	Lancaster JetHawks	—	500	456	107	12	6	18	34	180	6	28	6	235	297	406	703	171	331	36	7	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	23	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City RedHawks	—	267	231	57	5	3	14	30	89	4	22	3	247	343	476	820	229	330	33	11	353	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	23	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	323	289	68	16	0	14	26	117	5	23	5	235	309	436	745	201	328	36	8	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	24	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	345	299	69	8	1	21	35	114	9	5	2	231	329	475	804	244	294	33	10	349	122	+9	+0	-6	-4	+7	0.6
2014	24	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City RedHawks	—	61	53	15	3	1	2	7	19	1	4	0	283	377	491	868	208	399	31	11	369	136	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	25	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	451	388	106	18	2	16	50	109	8	16	4	273	368	454	821	180	342	24	11	364	133	+18	+2	-1	-5	+10	2.4
2015	25	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	20	19	4	1	0	0	1	8	0	1	0	211	250	263	513	53	368	40	5	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	26	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	744	646	166	27	5	30	86	178	11	9	10	257	354	454	808	197	317	24	12	360	130	+26	-2	-1	-8	+16	3.2
2017	27	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	629	551	154	27	0	35	63	111	11	5	7	279	365	519	884	240	297	18	10	386	147	+35	-2	-3	+2	+14	4.8
2018	28	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	620	548	144	25	0	23	64	122	5	6	4	263	345	434	780	172	303	20	10	344	119	+14	-0	-1	+2	+13	2.9
2019	29	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	556	480	140	19	3	40	66	113	6	6	2	292	384	594	978	302	305	20	12	419	170	+46	+0	+4	+2	+12	6.6
2020	30	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	222	191	50	6	2	14	24	38	5	1	2	262	359	534	893	272	259	17	11	388	148	+13	-1	+1	+1	+5	1.9
2021	31	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	342	301	79	19	1	22	36	79	4	4	1	262	349	551	900	289	286	23	11	389	150	+20	+0	+2	+1	+7	3.2
2021	31	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	18	17	3	1	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	176	222	235	458	59	177	22	0	167	-1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	32	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	583	518	137	22	4	25	53	100	7	14	2	264	341	467	808	203	285	17	9	354	125	+18	+2	-1	+2	+13	3.4
2023	33	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	683	616	157	25	1	21	59	125	5	20	5	255	325	401	726	146	291	18	9	325	106	+5	+2	-3	-7	+15	1.2
2024	34	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	614	546	120	19	3	19	60	115	6	16	1	220	304	370	674	150	245	19	10	303	91	-6	+3	-5	-7	+13	-0.2
2025	35	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	586	508	154	27	1	32	66	111	8	18	1	303	392	549	941	246	340	19	11	409	163	+44	+3	-7	-6	+13	4.7
2026	36	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	517	465	115	23	2	15	47	95	3	12	2	247	320	402	723	155	282	18	9	322	104	+3	+2	+0	-6	+11	1.0
2012	22	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	666	608	138	16	7	23	43	242	9	37	8	227	288	390	678	163	330	36	6	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	22	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	666	576	173	25	13	28	75	176	9	37	8	300	389	535	924	234	385	26	11	401	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	590	519	123	21	3	27	57	206	9	45	8	237	323	445	768	208	332	35	10	333	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	23	AA RAW	2 teams	—	590	492	149	27	4	37	83	161	9	45	8	303	412	600	1.012	297	377	27	14	434	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	24	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	406	352	83	11	2	23	42	133	10	9	2	236	334	474	809	239	303	33	10	352	124	+12	+1	-6	-4	+9	1.1
2014	24	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	406	346	86	12	2	23	48	129	10	9	2	249	356	494	851	246	321	32	12	374	124	+12	+1	-6	-4	+9	1.1
2015	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	471	407	110	19	2	16	51	117	8	17	4	270	363	445	807	174	339	25	11	359	129	+16	+2	-1	-5	+10	2.3
2015	25	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	471	406	112	20	2	16	52	115	8	17	4	276	369	453	822	177	345	24	11	364	129	+16	+2	-1	-5	+10	2.3
2016	26	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	744	646	166	27	5	30	86	178	11	9	10	257	354	454	808	197	310	24	12	360	130	+26	-2	-1	-8	+16	3.2
2016	26	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	—	744	644	168	29	5	29	88	178	11	9	10	261	359	457	816	196	317	24	12	363	130	+26	-2	-1	-8	+16	3.2
2017	27	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	629	551	154	27	0	35	63	111	11	5	7	279	365	519	884	240	291	18	10	386	147	+35	-2	-3	+2	+14	4.8
2017	27	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	—	629	548	155	29	0	34	64	111	11	5	7	283	368	522	890	239	297	18	10	388	147	+35	-2	-3	+2	+14	4.8
2018	28	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	620	548	144	25	0	23	64	122	5	6	4	263	345	434	780	172	298	20	10	344	119	+14	-0	-1	+2	+13	2.9
2018	28	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	—	620	544	144	26	0	22	64	122	5	6	4	265	345	434	779	169	303	20	10	346	119	+14	-0	-1	+2	+13	2.9
2019	29	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	556	480	140	19	3	40	66	113	6	6	2	292	384	594	978	302	302	20	12	419	170	+46	+0	+4	+2	+12	6.6
2019	29	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	—	556	479	140	20	3	39	67	113	6	6	2	292	386	591	977	299	305	20	12	420	170	+46	+0	+4	+2	+12	6.6
2020	30	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	222	191	50	6	2	14	24	38	5	1	2	262	359	534	893	272	255	17	11	388	148	+13	-1	+1	+1	+5	1.9
2020	30	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	—	222	189	50	6	2	14	24	38	5	1	2	265	359	540	899	275	259	17	11	387	148	+13	-1	+1	+1	+5	1.9
2021	31	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	360	318	81	20	1	22	36	83	5	4	1	255	340	531	871	277	276	23	10	378	142	+18	+0	+2	+1	+8	3.0
2021	31	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	360	316	82	20	1	22	37	82	5	4	1	259	345	538	883	278	282	23	10	383	142	+18	+0	+2	+1	+8	3.0
2022	32	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	583	518	137	22	4	25	53	100	7	14	2	264	341	467	808	203	281	17	9	354	125	+18	+2	-1	+2	+13	3.4
2022	32	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	—	583	513	137	22	4	25	54	100	7	14	2	267	343	472	814	205	285	17	9	356	125	+18	+2	-1	+2	+13	3.4
2023	33	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	683	616	157	25	1	21	59	125	5	20	5	255	325	401	726	146	288	18	9	325	106	+5	+2	-3	-7	+15	1.2
2023	33	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	—	683	613	158	25	1	21	60	125	5	20	5	258	328	405	733	147	291	18	9	327	106	+5	+2	-3	-7	+15	1.2
2024	34	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	614	546	120	19	3	19	60	115	6	16	1	220	304	370	674	150	244	19	10	303	91	-6	+3	-5	-7	+13	-0.2
2024	34	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	—	614	545	120	19	3	19	60	115	6	16	1	220	304	371	675	150	245	19	10	304	91	-6	+3	-5	-7	+13	-0.2
2025	35	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	586	508	154	27	1	32	66	111	8	18	1	303	392	549	941	246	331	19	11	409	163	+44	+3	-7	-6	+13	4.7
2025	35	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	—	586	498	154	27	1	32	69	111	8	18	1	309	397	560	957	251	340	19	12	413	163	+44	+3	-7	-6	+13	4.7
2026	36	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	517	465	115	23	2	15	47	95	3	12	2	247	320	402	723	155	280	18	9	322	104	+3	+2	+0	-6	+11	1.0
2026	36	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	—	517	462	115	23	2	15	47	95	3	12	2	249	320	405	725	156	282	18	9	323	104	+3	+2	+0	-6	+11	1.0
2012	22	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	666	609	138	16	7	23	43	242	9	37	8	227	288	389	677	163	322	36	6	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	590	519	123	21	3	27	57	206	9	45	8	237	323	445	768	208	329	35	10	333	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	24	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	406	351	83	11	2	23	42	133	10	9	2	236	334	476	810	239	310	33	10	352	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	471	409	110	19	2	16	51	117	8	17	4	269	363	443	805	174	343	25	11	359	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	26	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	744	641	166	27	5	30	86	178	11	9	10	259	354	457	811	198	317	24	12	360	130	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	27	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	629	550	154	27	0	35	63	111	11	5	7	280	365	520	885	240	297	18	10	386	147	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	28	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	620	546	144	25	0	23	64	122	5	6	4	264	345	436	781	172	303	20	10	344	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	29	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	556	479	140	19	3	40	66	113	6	6	2	292	384	595	979	303	305	20	12	419	170	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	30	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	222	191	50	6	2	14	24	38	5	1	2	262	359	534	893	272	259	17	11	388	148	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	31	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	360	316	81	20	1	22	36	83	5	4	1	256	340	535	875	278	281	23	10	378	142	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	32	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	583	518	137	22	4	25	53	100	7	14	2	264	341	467	808	203	285	17	9	354	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	33	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	683	614	157	25	1	21	59	125	5	20	5	256	325	402	727	147	291	18	9	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	34	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	614	543	120	19	3	19	60	115	6	16	1	221	304	372	676	151	245	19	10	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	35	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	586	507	154	27	1	32	66	111	8	18	1	304	392	550	942	247	340	19	11	409	163	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	36	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	517	462	115	23	2	15	47	95	3	12	2	249	320	405	725	156	282	18	9	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	34	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	614	543	120	19	3	19	60	115	6	16	1	221	304	372	676	151	245	19	10	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	35	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	586	507	154	27	1	32	66	111	8	18	1	304	392	550	942	247	340	19	11	409	163	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	36	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	517	462	115	23	2	15	47	95	3	12	2	249	320	405	725	156	282	18	9	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	37	MLB MLE	TOR	100%	422	374	98	18	2	16	41	79	4	11	3	262	341	449	790	187	290	19	10	349	122	+11	+1	-1	-5	+9	1.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	37	MLB CTX	TOR	100%	324	286	75	14	1	12	32	61	3	8	2	263	342	450	792	187	291	19	10	349	122	+9	+1	-1	-3	+7	1.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	38	MLB MLE	TOR	100%	207	183	46	8	1	7	20	40	2	3	1	250	328	420	748	170	280	19	10	332	111	+3	+0	-8	-2	+4	-0.3
2028	38	MLB CTX	TOR	100%	207	183	46	8	1	7	20	40	2	3	1	250	328	421	749	170	281	19	10	332	111	+3	+0	-8	-2	+4	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	7099	6200	1641	280	26	315	743	1450	90	135	44	265	350	471	821	206	297	20	10	361	124	+258	+9	-31	-35	+154	36.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	568	150	26	2	29	68	133	8	12	4	264	349	470	819	206	296	20	10	361	124	+24	+1	-3	-3	+14	3.3
Career	—	MLE		—	8778	7742	1993	329	38	384	869	1990	113	230	62	257	341	459	800	201	297	23	10	351	124	+267	+10	-32	-38	+161	37.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	573	147	24	3	28	64	147	8	17	5	257	339	455	795	199	297	23	10	351	124	+23	+1	-3	-3	+14	3.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2021 AAABuffalo Bisons · 18 PAwOBA .207 → .167 (−40)K% 16.7% → 20.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.67%	÷0.965	×1.200	—	—	20.72%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	0.00%	÷1.024	×0.690	—	×0.952	0.00%
HBP% /PA	5.56%	—	×0.940	—	×0.952	4.97%
Singles /BIP	14.29%	÷1.071	×0.930	—	×0.952	11.81%
Doubles /BIP	7.14%	÷0.962	×0.830	—	×0.952	5.87%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.920	—	×0.952	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.081	×0.700	—	×0.952	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 114, 2B 92, 3B 130, K 93, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .207 → .167; ISO .059 → .046; BABIP .214 → .177. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 20 PAwOBA .307 → .241 (−67)K% 30.0% → 38.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	30.00%	÷0.964	×1.220	—	—	37.98%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.00%	÷1.003	×0.700	—	×0.988	6.89%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.870	—	×0.988	0.00%
Singles /BIP	33.33%	÷1.022	×0.920	—	×0.988	29.64%
Doubles /BIP	8.33%	÷0.963	×0.840	—	×0.988	7.18%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.940	—	×0.988	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.059	×0.800	—	×0.988	0.00%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 104, 2B 93, 3B 80, K 93, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .307 → .241; ISO .056 → .044; BABIP .417 → .368. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 AAAOklahoma City RedHawks · 61 PAwOBA .464 → .369 (−94)K% 24.6% → 31.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.59%	÷0.994	×1.290	—	—	31.93%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.75%	÷0.977	×0.710	—	×1.033	11.08%
HBP% /PA	1.64%	—	×0.980	—	×1.033	1.66%
Singles /BIP	27.78%	÷1.018	×0.900	—	×1.033	25.38%
Doubles /BIP	11.11%	÷0.935	×0.810	—	×1.033	9.95%
Triples /BIP	2.78%	÷1.150	×0.810	—	×1.033	2.02%
Home runs /BIP	8.33%	÷1.042	×0.780	—	×1.033	6.44%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 104, 2B 87, 3B 130, K 99, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .464 → .369; ISO .294 → .220; BABIP .455 → .399. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 323 PAwOBA .411 → .317 (−94)K% 29.7% → 36.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	29.72%	÷1.004	×1.220	—	—	36.11%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.69%	÷1.117	×0.700	—	×1.012	8.05%
HBP% /PA	1.55%	—	×0.870	—	×1.012	1.36%
Singles /BIP	23.73%	÷1.040	×0.920	×1.004	×1.012	21.33%
Doubles /BIP	11.30%	÷1.067	×0.840	×1.004	×1.012	9.04%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.940	×1.004	×1.012	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	10.73%	÷1.106	×0.800	—	×1.012	7.86%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 108, 2B 113, 3B 80, K 101, BB 123 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.

Result: wOBA .411 → .317; ISO .282 → .210; BABIP .390 → .328. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 AAAOklahoma City RedHawks · 267 PAwOBA .440 → .353 (−87)K% 24.3% → 33.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.34%	÷0.938	×1.290	—	—	33.49%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.36%	÷1.003	×0.710	—	×1.048	11.39%
HBP% /PA	1.50%	—	×0.980	—	×1.048	1.54%
Singles /BIP	25.32%	÷0.984	×0.900	×0.999	×1.048	24.26%
Doubles /BIP	4.55%	÷1.008	×0.810	×0.999	×1.048	3.83%
Triples /BIP	2.60%	÷1.000	×0.810	×0.999	×1.048	2.20%
Home runs /BIP	11.69%	÷1.002	×0.780	—	×1.048	9.54%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 97, 2B 102, 3B 100, K 88, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.

Result: wOBA .440 → .353; ISO .315 → .241; BABIP .362 → .330. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2012 A+Lancaster JetHawks · 500 PAwOBA .405 → .305 (−100)K% 26.2% → 36.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.20%	÷0.975	×1.340	—	—	36.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.40%	÷1.095	×0.710	—	×0.998	6.73%
HBP% /PA	1.20%	—	×0.790	—	×0.998	0.95%
Singles /BIP	28.81%	÷1.022	×0.910	×0.983	×0.998	25.17%
Doubles /BIP	5.96%	÷1.138	×0.820	×0.983	×0.998	4.22%
Triples /BIP	3.31%	÷1.150	×0.760	×0.983	×0.998	2.15%
Home runs /BIP	7.28%	÷1.030	×0.920	—	×0.998	6.49%

Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 104, 2B 128, 3B 130, K 95, BB 119 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.

Result: wOBA .405 → .305; ISO .240 → .182; BABIP .404 → .331. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2012 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 81 PAwOBA .275 → .215 (−61)K% 30.9% → 38.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	30.86%	÷0.982	×1.220	—	—	38.35%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.41%	÷1.035	×0.700	—	×1.027	5.15%
HBP% /PA	1.23%	—	×0.870	—	×1.027	1.10%
Singles /BIP	22.92%	÷0.998	×0.920	×0.968	×1.027	21.00%
Doubles /BIP	6.25%	÷1.044	×0.840	×0.968	×1.027	5.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.940	×0.940	×0.968	×1.027	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.17%	÷1.110	×0.800	—	×1.027	3.08%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 122, 1B 100, 2B 109, 3B 88, K 96, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.968.

Result: wOBA .275 → .215; ISO .123 → .088; BABIP .304 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Nelson Cruzlast yr '23 career totals — 18 seasons, 8,389 PA	12.6	8,389	464	84	274	343	513	-89	-28	50.7	42.9
/162	664	37	7	-7.1	-2.2	4.0	pk7: 35
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 15 projected seasons	11.2	7,423	328	143	265	348	471	-82	-44	40.3	34.6
/162	664	29	13	-7.4	-4.0	3.6	pk7: 29
#2Paul O'Neill'85-'01 * career totals — 15 seasons, 8,329 PA	12.5	8,329	281	141	279*	353*	474*	-90	-11	40.4	34.5
/162	664	22	11	-7.2	-0.9	3.2	pk7: 29
#3Edwin Encarnaciónlast yr '20 career totals — 16 seasons, 8,126 PA	12.2	8,126	424	61	260	350	496	-77	-92	42.0	34.4
/162	664	35	5	-6.3	-7.5	3.4	pk7: 27
#4Kirk Gibson'79-'95 * career totals — 16 seasons, 6,656 PA	10.0	6,656	255	284	264*	350*	484*	-71	-26	35.1	30.6
/162	664	25	28	-7.1	-2.6	3.5	pk7: 26
#5Jayson Werthlast yr '17 career totals — 15 seasons, 6,366 PA	9.6	6,366	229	132	267	360	455	-68	-36	32.1	29.8
/162	664	24	14	-7.1	-3.7	3.3	pk7: 27
#6Ryan Klesko'92-'07 * career totals — 13 seasons, 6,516 PA	9.8	6,516	278	91	267*	355*	487*	-92	-37	33.7	29.2
/162	664	28	9	-9.3	-3.8	3.4	pk7: 25

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
George Springer (OGILVIE)	37	—	—	—	—	260/339/445	185	290	12	8	19%	10%	122	+1.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Ruben Rivera 2011 · AAA	37	54→58	56→60	54→55	53	277/348/468	191	293	24	19	15%	8%	130	+3.5	255/326/420	165	284	19	15	17%	9%	111	+2.1	249/327/410	161	280	18	17	17%	9%	108	+1.4
●Mike Cameron 2008 · MLB	35	50→53	54→60	55	53	253/336/449	196	307	20	19	24%	10%	121	+2.9	246/330/447	201	303	23	13	26%	10%	119	+2.7	243/330/446	202	299	24	11	26%	11%	120	+2.1
●Reggie Sanders 2005 · MLB	37	49→51	61→70	54→55	45	263/318/493	231	297	29	20	23%	7%	125	+3.2	260/320/476	216	303	27	17	23%	8%	122	+2.9	254/316/475	221	293	28	18	23%	8%	121	+1.6
●Johnny Damon 2010 · MLB	36	57→65	52→55	55	58	285/361/461	177	308	19	19	15%	11%	132	+3.7	266/338/420	154	296	14	14	15%	10%	114	+2.4	258/329/397	139	287	12	14	14%	9%	107	+1.5
✕Brett Gardner 2020 · MLB	36	48→58	54→55	56→65	55	245/325/430	185	273	20	14	19%	10%	113	+2.3	232/328/397	165	274	17	9	21%	12%	106	+1.8	216/330/354	138	264	14	7	22%	14%	99	+0.6
✕Michael Cuddyer 2015 · MLB	36	58→63	54→60	50	50	296/348/488	192	330	21	10	17%	7%	135	+3.8	268/321/423	155	317	17	7	20%	7%	109	+2.0	266/316/400	135	322	15	3	22%	6%	103	+1.1
●Marquis Grissom 2004 · MLB	37	54→59	54→60	49→50	43	277/308/460	183	298	22	10	16%	4%	114	+2.3	264/302/421	157	282	19	6	14%	5%	102	+1.5	259/297/407	148	273	19	3	14%	5%	98	+0.7
✕Scott Bullett 2006 · AAA	37	48→53	53→60	55→50	43	249/293/425	176	284	22	14	21%	5%	100	+1.3	254/293/406	152	304	18	9	22%	5%	95	+1.0	267/298/410	143	319	18	4	22%	4%	95	+0.7
●Javier Robles 2006 · AAA	36	57→61	56→55	52→50	51	295/349/485	190	300	25	15	12%	7%	135	+3.8	280/331/439	159	294	19	8	12%	6%	117	+2.6	272/325/408	136	287	16	5	11%	6%	106	+1.2
●Torii Hunter 2010 · MLB	35	55→65	56→65	51→55	50	283/340/482	199	311	24	18	18%	7%	130	+3.5	280/344/454	174	320	21	10	19%	8%	125	+3.2	282/348/444	161	328	19	7	19%	8%	125	+3.3
✕Tommy Pham 2024 · MLB	36	47→57	51→55	52→55	52	239/318/400	161	290	19	17	24%	10%	103	+1.6	239/310/375	136	295	15	11	23%	9%	94	+0.9	229/303/349	120	285	13	7	23%	9%	86	+0.2
●Jeff Conine 2004 · MLB	38	55→62	51→55	51→50	51	275/327/440	165	288	18	8	12%	7%	116	+2.5	275/333/417	142	303	13	5	13%	8%	112	+2.2	275/336/403	128	307	11	4	13%	8%	111	+1.8
●Craig Biggio 2003 · MLB	37	54→58	48→60	51→50	53	264/347/416	151	295	15	11	16%	8%	118	+2.6	266/335/434	168	292	17	9	15%	7%	118	+2.6	266/333/442	177	287	19	8	15%	6%	120	+3.2
✕Ruben Sierra 2003 · MLB	37	52→53	55→60	51→40	48	269/311/452	183	281	23	6	15%	6%	113	+2.3	254/301/425	171	274	21	5	16%	6%	103	+1.5	246/292/414	168	266	21	2	17%	6%	98	+0.6
✕Ryan Braun 2020 · MLB	36	52→62	57→70	51→55	48	270/327/479	209	303	24	14	20%	7%	125	+3.2	257/315/461	204	289	25	11	20%	7%	117	+2.6	229/278/474	245	232	32	4	19%	5%	108	+0.5
✕Greg Vaughn 2001 · MLB	36	48→47	62→60	51→50	60	256/357/489	234	293	29	9	23%	13%	138	+4.1	223/322/419	196	264	24	10	24%	12%	109	+2.0	206/307/386	180	242	22	10	25%	12%	98	+0.8
✕Darin Ruf 2023 · MLB	37	47→53	55→60	50→40	55	240/339/423	183	300	23	5	27%	12%	117	+2.6	226/316/367	141	301	15	7	28%	11%	95	+1.0	177/279/249	72	269	4	0	32%	12%	55	-0.4
✕Shin-Soo Choo 2020 · MLB	38	52→61	52→55	52→55	57	258/359/428	170	317	20	11	24%	12%	125	+3.2	250/339/420	170	310	20	15	25%	10%	116	+2.5	227/312/378	151	279	22	28	26%	9%	97	+0.2
✕Mark Sweeney 2006 · MLB	36	54	53→55	52→40	59	268/362/451	183	325	20	8	23%	13%	130	+3.5	245/328/378	133	297	12	6	20%	10%	101	+1.4	226/311/331	105	277	8	2	20%	10%	85	+0.1
✕Lew Ford 2013 · MLB	36	49→59	52→50	53→50	47	250/299/421	171	276	20	14	18%	6%	101	+1.4	241/292/396	155	266	17	9	16%	6%	93	+0.8	251/301/384	133	269	12	0	12%	6%	91	+0.1

George Springer

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps