Mookie Betts

SS Los Angeles Dodgers

Age 34 R/R 5'9" / 180 lbs MLB HR +8%BB -8% Svc 12.407 · Ctrl thru 2032

Overview

MLB40-MANExtFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2024	31	MLBLAD	516	.289/.375/.491	19	16	147	4.8
2025	32	MLBLAD	663	.258/.331/.406	20	8	109	3.6
2026	33	MLBLAD	528	.257/.326/.454	23	2	119	3.0
2027PROJ	34	MLBLAD	450	.275/.345/.456	17	5	127	2.9
2028PROJ	35	MLBLAD	413	.265/.334/.434	14	2	118	1.6
2029PROJ	36	MLBLAD	364	.255/.323/.411	12	0	108	0.8

Last 3 seasons WAR 11.4 · Next 3 projected WAR 5.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractCONFIRMED

Control thru2032Service12.407First FA2033

2027Ext$30M2028Ext$30M2029Ext$30M2030Ext$30M2031Ext$30M2032Ext$30M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

xwOBA80

Avg EV58

Barrel%36

Speed33

Bat Spd29

Form.292/.375/.524 ▲▲ rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .278/.346/.459

CompsZack Cozart (age 33) · Carlos Ruiz (age 34) · Wilson Ramos (age 33)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 129127vR 120

AVG/OBP/SLG.275 / .345 / .456

PA450

HR17

SB5

K%11

BB%9

BABIP277

ISO181

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$78M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · Contract

ToolsStatcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT

xAVG

790.275

POWER

Barrel%

366.4

Avg EV

5889.7

Bat Spd

2969.1

SPEED

Sprint

3326.7

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%10%▲10% over 114 PA (60d) · proj 11%

BB%12%▲▲14% over 114 PA (60d) · proj 9%

ISO.232▲▲.316 over 98 AB (60d) · proj .180

HR/BB6.1%▲8.0% over 87 BBE (60d) · proj 4.5%

BABIP.286·.312 over 80 BIP (60d) · proj .283

SLASH.292/.375/.524▲▲proj .278/.346/.459

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1205 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

349

856

—

wRC+

119

121

—

wOBA

345

346

—

ISO

166

179

▶R

BABIP

280

268

◀L

9.2%

11.2%

◀◀L

BB%

8.6%

10.6%

▶▶R

Contract CONFIRMED · hand-curated extension

Status FA

MLB Debut 2014

Service 12.407 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext	$30M	+2.9	$26M	-$5M
2028	Ext	$30M	+1.6	$12M	-$15M
2029	Ext	$30M	+0.8	$3M	-$22M
2030	Ext	$30M	+0.2	$0.6M	-$22M
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$122M		$41M	-$64M

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$64M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2013	20	A+	Salem Red Sox	—	211	185	63	12	3	7	23	17	1	20	2	341	416	551	968	211	346	8	11	420	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	20	A	Greenville Drive	—	340	277	82	24	1	8	58	40	1	18	2	296	420	477	896	181	322	12	17	396	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	20	INTL	Surprise Saguaros	—	68	59	16	3	0	1	9	10	0	8	2	271	368	373	741	102	312	15	13	339	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	21	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	213	189	55	12	1	5	21	31	2	7	3	291	368	444	812	153	327	15	10	362	125	+6	+0	+0	+2	+5	1.4
2014	21	AAA	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	211	185	62	12	2	5	26	30	0	11	4	335	417	503	920	168	380	14	12	408	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	21	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	253	214	76	18	3	6	35	20	1	22	3	355	448	551	999	196	366	8	14	435	154	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	654	597	174	42	8	18	46	82	2	21	6	291	344	479	823	188	310	13	7	357	122	+17	+2	+1	+2	+14	3.7
2016	23	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	730	672	214	42	5	31	49	80	2	26	4	318	367	534	901	216	322	11	7	391	145	+39	+4	+9	-8	+16	6.1
2017	24	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	712	628	166	46	2	24	77	79	2	26	3	264	347	459	805	194	268	11	11	355	114	+12	+4	+10	-8	+15	3.5
2018	25	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	614	520	180	47	5	32	81	91	8	30	6	346	442	640	1.082	294	368	15	13	463	187	+64	+4	+8	-7	+13	8.3
2019	26	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	706	597	176	40	5	29	97	101	3	16	3	295	396	524	920	229	309	14	14	399	148	+40	+2	+1	-8	+15	5.3
2020	27	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	246	219	64	9	1	16	24	38	2	10	2	292	367	562	929	269	289	15	10	403	159	+17	+1	+2	-3	+5	2.4
2021	28	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	550	466	123	29	3	23	68	86	11	10	5	264	371	487	858	223	276	16	12	376	144	+29	+0	-0	-6	+12	3.5
2022	29	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	639	572	154	40	3	35	55	104	8	12	2	269	342	533	875	264	272	16	9	379	146	+35	+2	+1	-7	+14	4.5
2023	30	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	693	584	179	40	1	39	96	107	8	14	3	307	411	579	990	272	316	15	14	428	177	+64	+2	-4	-7	+15	7.1
2024	31	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	516	450	130	24	5	19	61	57	1	16	2	289	375	491	866	202	294	11	12	380	147	+29	+2	-1	+6	+11	4.8
2025	32	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	663	589	152	23	2	20	61	68	3	8	2	258	331	406	737	148	258	10	9	326	109	+7	+1	+7	+7	+14	3.6
2026	33	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	528	478	123	25	0	23	47	58	2	2	3	257	326	454	780	197	251	11	9	345	119	+12	-1	+1	+6	+11	3.0
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	7464	6561	1890	419	41	314	783	982	54	198	44	288	369	508	877	220	296	13	10	382	145	+398	+22	+35	-29	+162	60.0
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2013	20	A+ MLE	Salem Red Sox	—	211	195	57	10	2	7	13	24	1	20	2	292	340	472	812	179	301	11	6	349	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	20	A MLE	Greenville Drive	—	340	296	76	19	1	7	39	54	1	18	2	257	345	399	744	142	286	16	11	324	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	21	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	213	189	53	11	1	5	21	31	2	7	3	280	358	429	787	148	327	15	10	353	125	+6	+0	+0	+2	+5	1.4
2014	21	AAA MLE	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	211	194	58	11	2	4	17	37	0	11	4	299	355	438	794	139	351	18	8	340	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	21	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	253	224	75	16	3	5	25	25	1	22	3	335	404	500	904	165	354	10	10	396	154	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	654	598	168	37	9	18	45	82	2	21	6	281	333	463	797	182	310	13	7	349	122	+17	+2	+1	+2	+14	3.7
2016	23	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	730	673	209	37	6	32	48	80	2	26	4	311	358	526	884	215	322	11	7	383	145	+39	+4	+9	-8	+16	6.1
2017	24	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	712	637	161	41	2	25	68	79	2	26	3	253	327	441	768	188	268	11	10	337	114	+12	+4	+10	-8	+15	3.5
2018	25	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	614	528	176	42	6	33	73	91	8	30	6	333	422	623	1.045	290	368	15	12	445	187	+64	+4	+8	-7	+13	8.3
2019	26	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	706	603	172	36	6	30	91	101	3	16	3	285	382	514	896	229	309	14	13	387	148	+40	+2	+1	-8	+15	5.3
2020	27	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	246	220	64	10	1	15	23	38	2	10	2	291	363	550	913	259	289	15	9	403	159	+17	+1	+2	-3	+5	2.4
2021	28	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	550	468	126	31	4	22	66	86	11	10	5	269	372	494	866	224	276	16	12	381	144	+29	+0	-0	-6	+12	3.5
2022	29	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	639	572	157	42	4	34	55	104	8	12	2	274	346	540	887	266	272	16	9	384	146	+35	+2	+1	-7	+14	4.5
2023	30	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	693	587	180	42	1	37	93	107	8	14	3	307	408	571	979	264	316	15	13	430	177	+64	+2	-4	-7	+15	7.1
2024	31	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	516	452	132	25	6	18	59	57	1	16	2	292	375	493	868	201	294	11	11	385	147	+29	+2	-1	+6	+11	4.8
2025	32	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	663	591	153	24	2	19	59	68	3	8	2	259	329	403	732	144	258	10	9	329	109	+7	+1	+7	+7	+14	3.6
2026	33	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	528	481	124	26	0	22	44	58	2	2	3	258	323	449	772	191	251	11	8	344	119	+12	-1	+1	+6	+11	3.0
2013	20	A MLE	3 teams	—	619	552	149	32	3	16	59	88	2	46	6	270	343	426	768	156	296	14	10	334	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	20	A RAW	3 teams	—	619	521	161	39	4	16	90	67	2	46	6	309	413	491	904	182	330	11	15	398	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	21	AA MLE	3 teams	—	677	607	187	38	6	14	63	93	3	40	10	308	376	460	836	152	344	14	9	365	133	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	21	AA RAW	3 teams	—	677	588	193	42	6	16	82	81	3	40	10	328	413	502	915	173	358	12	12	403	133	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	654	598	168	37	9	18	45	82	2	21	6	281	333	463	797	182	298	13	7	349	122	+17	+2	+1	+2	+14	3.7
2015	22	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	—	654	597	174	42	8	18	46	82	2	21	6	291	344	479	823	188	310	13	7	357	122	+17	+2	+1	+2	+14	3.7
2016	23	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	730	673	209	37	6	32	48	80	2	26	4	311	358	526	884	215	312	11	7	383	145	+39	+4	+9	-8	+16	6.1
2016	23	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	—	730	672	214	42	5	31	49	80	2	26	4	318	367	534	901	216	322	11	7	391	145	+39	+4	+9	-8	+16	6.1
2017	24	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	712	637	161	41	2	25	68	79	2	26	3	253	327	441	768	188	253	11	10	337	114	+12	+4	+10	-8	+15	3.5
2017	24	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	—	712	628	166	46	2	24	77	79	2	26	3	264	347	459	805	194	268	11	11	355	114	+12	+4	+10	-8	+15	3.5
2018	25	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	614	528	176	42	6	33	73	91	8	30	6	333	422	623	1.045	290	350	15	12	445	187	+64	+4	+8	-7	+13	8.3
2018	25	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	—	614	520	180	47	5	32	81	91	8	30	6	346	442	640	1.082	294	368	15	13	463	187	+64	+4	+8	-7	+13	8.3
2019	26	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	706	603	172	36	6	30	91	101	3	16	3	285	382	514	896	229	295	14	13	387	148	+40	+2	+1	-8	+15	5.3
2019	26	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	—	706	597	176	40	5	29	97	101	3	16	3	295	396	524	920	229	309	14	14	399	148	+40	+2	+1	-8	+15	5.3
2020	27	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	246	220	64	10	1	15	23	38	2	10	2	291	363	550	913	259	292	15	9	403	159	+17	+1	+2	-3	+5	2.4
2020	27	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	246	219	64	9	1	16	24	38	2	10	2	292	367	562	929	269	289	15	10	403	159	+17	+1	+2	-3	+5	2.4
2021	28	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	550	468	126	31	4	22	66	86	11	10	5	269	372	494	866	224	285	16	12	381	144	+29	+0	-0	-6	+12	3.5
2021	28	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	550	466	123	29	3	23	68	86	11	10	5	264	371	487	858	223	276	16	12	376	144	+29	+0	-0	-6	+12	3.5
2022	29	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	639	572	157	42	4	34	55	104	8	12	2	274	346	540	887	266	281	16	9	384	146	+35	+2	+1	-7	+14	4.5
2022	29	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	639	572	154	40	3	35	55	104	8	12	2	269	342	533	875	264	272	16	9	379	146	+35	+2	+1	-7	+14	4.5
2023	30	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	693	587	180	42	1	37	93	107	8	14	3	307	408	571	979	264	319	15	13	430	177	+64	+2	-4	-7	+15	7.1
2023	30	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	693	584	179	40	1	39	96	107	8	14	3	307	411	579	990	272	316	15	14	428	177	+64	+2	-4	-7	+15	7.1
2024	31	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	516	452	132	25	6	18	59	57	1	16	2	292	375	493	868	201	299	11	11	385	147	+29	+2	-1	+6	+11	4.8
2024	31	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	516	450	130	24	5	19	61	57	1	16	2	289	375	491	866	202	294	11	12	380	147	+29	+2	-1	+6	+11	4.8
2025	32	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	663	591	153	24	2	19	59	68	3	8	2	259	329	403	732	144	261	10	9	329	109	+7	+1	+7	+7	+14	3.6
2025	32	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	663	589	152	23	2	20	61	68	3	8	2	258	331	406	737	148	258	10	9	326	109	+7	+1	+7	+7	+14	3.6
2026	33	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	528	481	124	26	0	22	44	58	2	2	3	258	323	449	772	191	254	11	8	344	119	+12	-1	+1	+6	+11	3.0
2026	33	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	528	478	123	25	0	23	47	58	2	2	3	257	326	454	780	197	251	11	9	345	119	+12	-1	+1	+6	+11	3.0
2013	20	A MLE	3 teams	—	619	553	149	32	3	16	59	88	2	46	6	269	343	425	768	156	292	14	10	334	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	21	AA MLE	3 teams	—	677	606	187	38	6	14	63	93	3	40	10	309	376	460	836	152	345	14	9	365	133	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	654	602	168	37	9	18	45	82	2	21	6	279	333	460	793	181	310	13	7	349	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	730	674	209	37	6	32	48	80	2	26	4	310	358	525	883	215	322	11	7	383	145	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	712	636	161	41	2	25	68	79	2	26	3	253	327	442	769	189	268	11	10	337	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	614	528	176	42	6	33	73	91	8	30	6	333	422	623	1.045	290	368	15	12	445	187	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	26	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	706	606	172	36	6	30	91	101	3	16	3	284	382	512	893	228	309	14	13	387	148	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	27	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	246	219	64	10	1	15	23	38	2	10	2	292	363	553	916	260	289	15	9	403	159	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	28	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	550	468	126	31	4	22	66	86	11	10	5	269	372	494	866	224	276	16	12	381	144	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	29	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	639	571	157	42	4	34	55	104	8	12	2	275	346	541	888	266	272	16	9	384	146	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	30	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	693	587	180	42	1	37	93	107	8	14	3	307	408	571	979	264	316	15	13	430	177	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	31	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	516	451	132	25	6	18	59	57	1	16	2	293	375	494	869	202	294	11	11	385	147	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	32	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	663	596	153	24	2	19	59	68	3	8	2	257	329	399	729	143	258	10	9	329	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	33	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	528	477	124	26	0	22	44	58	2	2	3	260	323	453	775	193	251	11	8	344	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	31	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	516	451	132	25	6	18	59	57	1	16	2	293	375	494	869	202	294	11	11	385	147	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	32	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	663	596	153	24	2	19	59	68	3	8	2	257	329	399	729	143	258	10	9	329	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	33	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	528	477	124	26	0	22	44	58	2	2	3	260	323	453	775	193	251	11	8	344	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	34	MLB MLE	LAD	100%	524	469	131	25	2	19	48	59	2	6	2	279	348	459	807	180	283	11	9	355	127	+17	+0	-1	+6	+11	2.9
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	34	MLB CTX	LAD	100%	450	404	111	20	1	17	41	51	2	5	2	275	345	456	801	181	277	11	9	353	127	+14	+0	-1	+5	+10	2.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	35	MLB MLE	LAD	100%	413	371	99	18	1	14	37	49	2	2	1	268	337	436	774	168	275	12	9	342	118	+9	+0	-6	+4	+9	1.6
2029	36	MLB MLE	LAD	100%	364	328	85	15	1	11	32	45	1	0	1	258	326	414	740	155	267	12	9	328	108	+4	-0	-7	+4	+8	0.8
2030	37	MLB MLE	LAD	100%	301	271	68	11	1	9	26	39	1	0	0	247	315	390	705	142	259	13	9	314	99	-0	+0	-8	+3	+7	0.2
2028	35	MLB CTX	LAD	100%	413	371	98	17	1	14	37	49	2	2	1	265	334	434	768	169	270	12	9	339	118	+9	+0	-6	+4	+9	1.6
2029	36	MLB CTX	LAD	100%	364	328	84	14	1	12	32	45	1	0	1	255	323	411	734	156	262	12	9	326	108	+4	-0	-7	+4	+8	0.8
2030	37	MLB CTX	LAD	100%	301	271	66	10	1	9	26	39	1	0	0	244	312	387	699	143	254	13	9	312	99	-0	+0	-8	+3	+7	0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	8542	7531	2138	460	44	349	878	1115	58	200	46	284	363	496	859	212	292	13	10	375	136	+410	+22	+14	-18	+185	62.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	573	163	35	3	27	67	85	4	15	4	284	363	497	861	213	292	13	10	375	136	+31	+2	+1	-1	+14	4.8
Career	—	MLE		—	10075	8943	2522	528	61	385	982	1316	63	284	61	282	357	484	841	202	292	13	10	369	136	+425	+22	+13	-13	+195	65.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	577	163	34	4	25	63	85	4	18	4	282	357	485	842	203	292	13	10	369	136	+31	+2	+1	-1	+14	4.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2014 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 253 PAwOBA .429 → .396 (−33)K% 7.9% → 9.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	7.91%	÷0.975	×1.220	—	—	9.89%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.83%	÷1.041	×0.700	—	×1.042	9.69%
HBP% /PA	0.40%	—	×0.850	—	×1.042	0.35%
Singles /BIP	25.26%	÷1.014	×0.970	×1.000	×1.042	25.17%
Doubles /BIP	9.28%	÷1.025	×0.860	×1.000	×1.042	8.11%
Triples /BIP	1.55%	÷0.900	×0.950	×1.000	×1.042	1.70%
Home runs /BIP	3.09%	÷0.959	×0.780	—	×1.042	2.62%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 103, 2B 105, 3B 80, K 95, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.000.

Result: wOBA .429 → .396; ISO .196 → .183; BABIP .366 → .354. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 211 PAwOBA .398 → .340 (−58)K% 14.2% → 17.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.22%	÷0.980	×1.200	—	—	17.40%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.32%	÷1.084	×0.690	—	×1.050	8.24%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	27.74%	÷0.976	×0.930	×0.950	×1.050	26.36%
Doubles /BIP	7.74%	÷0.937	×0.830	×0.950	×1.050	6.84%
Triples /BIP	1.29%	÷1.104	×0.970	×0.950	×1.050	1.13%
Home runs /BIP	3.23%	÷1.240	×0.840	—	×1.050	2.29%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 148, 1B 95, 2B 87, 3B 121, K 96, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .398 → .340; ISO .168 → .136; BABIP .380 → .351. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 AGreenville Drive · 340 PAwOBA .387 → .324 (−63)K% 11.8% → 15.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	11.76%	÷1.000	×1.340	—	—	15.77%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	17.06%	÷0.986	×0.660	—	×1.015	11.59%
HBP% /PA	0.29%	—	×0.770	—	×1.015	0.23%
Singles /BIP	20.68%	÷0.993	×0.920	×1.022	×1.015	19.86%
Doubles /BIP	10.13%	÷1.124	×0.820	×1.022	×1.015	7.66%
Triples /BIP	0.42%	÷1.150	×0.940	×1.022	×1.015	0.36%
Home runs /BIP	3.38%	÷0.967	×0.820	—	×1.015	2.90%

Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 99, 2B 125, 3B 130, K 100, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.022.

Result: wOBA .387 → .324; ISO .181 → .152; BABIP .322 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 A+Salem Red Sox · 211 PAwOBA .408 → .349 (−60)K% 8.1% → 11.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	8.06%	÷0.994	×1.420	—	—	11.51%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.95%	÷1.054	×0.630	—	×1.027	6.11%
HBP% /PA	0.47%	—	×0.860	—	×1.027	0.42%
Singles /BIP	24.40%	÷1.036	×0.940	×0.972	×1.027	22.11%
Doubles /BIP	7.14%	÷1.038	×0.830	×0.972	×1.027	5.70%
Triples /BIP	1.79%	÷1.129	×0.800	×0.972	×1.027	1.26%
Home runs /BIP	4.17%	÷0.979	×0.900	—	×1.027	3.93%

Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 107, 2B 108, 3B 126, K 99, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.972.

Result: wOBA .408 → .349; ISO .211 → .187; BABIP .346 → .301. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 17 projected seasons	13.5	8,992	364	206	285	359	496	+89	+43	78.4	64.5
/162	664	27	15	+6.5	+3.2	5.8	pk7: 51
#1Chase Utleylast yr '18 AS×6SS×4 career totals — 16 seasons, 7,863 PA	11.8	7,863	259	154	275	358	465	+28	+107	67.9	60.3
/162	664	22	13	+2.4	+9.1	5.7	pk7: 53
#2Robinson Canólast yr '22 AS×8GG×2SS×5 career totals — 17 seasons, 9,550 PA	14.4	9,550	335	51	301	351	488	+34	+8	70.1	58.3
/162	664	23	4	+2.4	+0.6	4.9	pk7: 47
#3Roberto Alomar'88-'04 * career totals — 17 seasons, 10,400 PA	15.7	10,400	210	474	291*	361*	446*	+34	+13	67.5	56.1
/162	664	13	30	+2.2	+0.8	4.3	pk7: 45
#4Scott Rolen'96-'12 * career totals — 17 seasons, 8,518 PA	12.8	8,518	316	118	271*	352*	479*	+30	+75	64.8	53.9
/162	664	25	9	+2.4	+5.8	5.1	pk7: 43
#5David Wrightlast yr '16 AS×7GG×2SS×2 career totals — 13 seasons, 6,869 PA	10.3	6,869	242	196	296	376	491	+25	-8	58.2	52.5
/162	664	23	19	+2.4	-0.8	5.6	pk7: 47
#6Bobby Grich'70-'86 * career totals — 16 seasons, 8,220 PA	12.4	8,220	224	104	264*	372*	459*	+27	+57	63.4	51.7
/162	664	18	8	+2.1	+4.6	5.1	pk7: 40

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Mookie Betts (OGILVIE)	34	—	—	—	—	276/345/455	179	283	16	5	11%	9%	127	+2.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Zack Cozart 2019 · MLB	33	50→56	53→60	52→50	55	256/333/443	186	279	19	4	16%	9%	118	+2.7	219/290/349	130	248	13	6	17%	8%	82	-0.0	121/178/142	21	144	0	0	15%	5%	-8	-1.2
✕Carlos Ruiz 2013 · MLB	34	59→63	49→50	49→45	52	292/360/448	156	311	15	4	12%	7%	130	+3.5	257/327/379	122	284	10	5	13%	7%	102	+1.5	236/326/329	93	270	6	5	14%	10%	91	+0.4
✕Wilson Ramos 2021 · MLB	33	55→61	49→55	47→30	50	277/334/425	148	307	18	3	16%	7%	115	+2.4	243/293/411	168	270	22	5	19%	6%	97	+1.1	223/256/396	173	235	27	0	19%	4%	79	-0.1
✕Jorge Cantu 2016 · AAA	34	51→58	55	48→40	47	264/320/449	185	285	23	6	18%	6%	116	+2.5	226/282/349	123	273	13	6	22%	6%	78	-0.3	201/259/306	105	251	12	3	24%	6%	59	-0.9
✕Gabe Kapler 2009 · MLB	34	54→60	51→55	49→55	49	273/324/444	171	301	18	8	16%	6%	116	+2.5	244/317/407	163	273	17	10	17%	9%	104	+1.6	222/309/375	153	246	16	10	17%	10%	95	+0.3
✕Ronnie Belliard 2010 · MLB	35	55→58	51→50	48→45	51	276/335/443	166	309	18	6	17%	8%	119	+2.7	232/292/359	127	275	12	8	19%	8%	84	+0.1	206/265/298	93	249	7	7	19%	7%	59	-0.6
✕Jay Bell 2001 · MLB	35	52→53	50→55	49→45	59	261/341/427	166	280	17	7	14%	10%	118	+2.6	238/330/380	142	269	15	4	17%	11%	103	+1.6	226/332/343	117	264	12	0	18%	13%	97	+0.6
●Michael Young 2011 · MLB	34	57→67	50→55	47→50	50	286/336/444	158	316	17	6	16%	7%	120	+2.8	291/333/416	125	323	11	4	13%	6%	112	+2.2	292/334/403	111	324	8	3	12%	6%	108	+2.0
✕Asdrúbal Cabrera 2020 · MLB	34	51→61	53→60	48→50	52	262/331/440	178	297	20	4	19%	9%	117	+2.6	242/317/408	166	286	17	4	21%	9%	105	+1.7	231/308/390	159	275	15	1	21%	10%	97	+0.5
✕Rich Aurilia 2007 · MLB	35	55→61	54→60	51→40	52	279/333/458	179	290	22	4	13%	7%	122	+2.9	265/314/406	141	286	15	3	13%	6%	103	+1.5	257/304/370	114	284	11	1	13%	6%	91	+0.4
✕Terry Shumpert 2001 · MLB	34	50	52→50	54→55	55	253/331/435	182	269	18	14	14%	9%	116	+2.5	249/313/401	152	281	14	17	16%	7%	101	+1.4	254/311/392	138	290	11	20	16%	6%	99	+0.6
✕Tommy La Stella 2022 · MLB	33	52→55	51→55	48→50	56	258/325/421	162	260	18	3	10%	9%	111	+2.1	241/306/375	134	271	13	5	16%	8%	93	+0.8	242/301/360	118	278	9	0	16%	7%	86	+0.1
✕Kurt Suzuki 2019 · MLB	35	52→60	55→60	45	49	267/328/453	187	271	22	2	12%	6%	120	+2.8	256/323/432	176	266	22	3	14%	6%	113	+2.3	246/315/409	163	257	22	1	14%	6%	106	+0.7
✕Herbert Perry Jr. 2004 · MLB	34	50→60	54→55	45	50	260/317/440	180	273	22	6	15%	7%	113	+2.3	242/315/402	160	258	20	7	15%	8%	103	+1.5	221/307/360	140	223	20	0	12%	9%	92	+0.2
●Joe Randa 2004 · MLB	34	55→61	48→50	46→40	52	274/333/422	148	289	14	3	12%	7%	114	+2.3	275/332/423	148	301	14	2	13%	7%	114	+2.3	274/330/417	143	301	13	0	13%	7%	112	+1.7
✕Tony Eusebio 2001 · MLB	34	53	51→55	47→30	53	264/340/435	170	302	17	5	19%	9%	120	+2.8	253/326/414	161	294	18	6	20%	9%	109	+2.0	248/322/395	146	288	17	0	20%	8%	105	+0.5
✕Mike Lieberthal 2006 · MLB	34	54→63	50→55	43→30	50	268/325/425	157	275	17	2	11%	6%	112	+2.2	252/305/403	151	260	17	4	11%	5%	99	+1.3	264/309/454	190	255	23	0	8%	3%	114	+0.9
✕Mark DeRosa 2010 · MLB	35	52→61	53→55	46→40	53	265/342/441	176	301	21	5	19%	10%	122	+2.9	241/314/361	120	286	13	6	20%	9%	93	+0.8	228/313/326	97	280	9	2	20%	10%	85	+0.1
●Todd Zeile 2001 · MLB	35	52→55	54→50	41→30	59	264/345/456	192	277	21	5	14%	11%	126	+3.2	261/344/406	145	293	16	3	16%	11%	114	+2.4	256/342/389	133	288	15	1	16%	11%	110	+1.8
●Miguel Tejada 2008 · MLB	34	60→64	52→60	46→45	49	301/347/465	164	310	20	5	11%	5%	129	+3.4	289/324/425	136	303	14	5	10%	4%	111	+2.1	286/318/413	127	300	12	4	9%	3%	107	+2.0

Mookie Betts

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps