CJ Abrams
SS Washington Nationals| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 23 | MLBWSH | 602 | .246/.317/.433 | 20 | 31 | 109 | 1.7 |
| 2025 | 24 | MLBWSH | 635 | .257/.317/.433 | 19 | 31 | 110 | 2.9 |
| 2026 | 25 | MLBWSH | 654 | .261/.340/.497 | 33 | 34 | 131 | 4.7 |
| 2027PROJ | 26 | MLBWSH | 614 | .250/.321/.456 | 26 | 32 | 118 | 2.5 |
| 2028PROJ | 27 | MLBWSH | 614 | .249/.320/.454 | 26 | 32 | 117 | 2.4 |
| 2029PROJ | 28 | MLBWSH | 601 | .247/.318/.449 | 25 | 28 | 115 | 2.1 |
Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 50 / POW 45
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | AZL Padres 1 | — | 156 | 142 | 57 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 10 | 14 | 2 | 14 | 6 | 401 | 448 | 662 | 1.110 | 261 | 425 | 9 | 6 | 473 | 117 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | AA | San Antonio Missions | — | 183 | 162 | 48 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 36 | 3 | 13 | 2 | 296 | 367 | 420 | 786 | 123 | 365 | 20 | 8 | 348 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MLB | Washington Nationals | — | 302 | 284 | 70 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 50 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 246 | 282 | 324 | 606 | 77 | 291 | 17 | 2 | 271 | 70 | -11 | -0 | -5 | +5 | +7 | -0.4 |
| 2022 | 21 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | — | 186 | 171 | 53 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 33 | 4 | 14 | 4 | 310 | 362 | 480 | 842 | 170 | 348 | 18 | 5 | 371 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MLB | Washington Nationals | — | 614 | 563 | 138 | 28 | 6 | 18 | 32 | 118 | 13 | 47 | 4 | 245 | 301 | 412 | 713 | 167 | 279 | 19 | 5 | 314 | 99 | -1 | +8 | -3 | +7 | +13 | 2.4 |
| 2024 | 23 | MLB | Washington Nationals | — | 602 | 541 | 133 | 29 | 6 | 20 | 40 | 128 | 16 | 31 | 12 | 246 | 317 | 433 | 749 | 187 | 285 | 21 | 7 | 330 | 109 | +6 | +1 | -11 | +6 | +13 | 1.7 |
| 2025 | 24 | MLB | Washington Nationals | — | 635 | 580 | 149 | 35 | 5 | 19 | 37 | 125 | 14 | 31 | 3 | 257 | 317 | 433 | 750 | 176 | 296 | 20 | 6 | 331 | 110 | +8 | +5 | -5 | +7 | +14 | 2.9 |
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | Washington Nationals | — | 654 | 579 | 151 | 30 | 4 | 33 | 57 | 158 | 12 | 34 | 6 | 261 | 340 | 497 | 837 | 237 | 299 | 24 | 9 | 364 | 131 | +24 | +4 | -3 | +7 | +14 | 4.7 |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 2807 | 2547 | 641 | 134 | 23 | 92 | 171 | 579 | 64 | 150 | 29 | 252 | 315 | 431 | 746 | 179 | 290 | 21 | 6 | 328 | 108 | +28 | +18 | -27 | +32 | +61 | 11.5 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Padres 1 | — | 156 | 146 | 43 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 20 | 2 | 14 | 6 | 295 | 331 | 473 | 804 | 178 | 317 | 13 | 4 | 341 | 117 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | AA MLE | San Antonio Missions | — | 183 | 166 | 48 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 46 | 3 | 13 | 2 | 289 | 344 | 410 | 754 | 120 | 370 | 25 | 6 | 322 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MLB MLE | Washington Nationals | — | 302 | 284 | 70 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 50 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 246 | 282 | 324 | 606 | 77 | 291 | 17 | 2 | 272 | 70 | -11 | -0 | -5 | +5 | +7 | -0.4 |
| 2022 | 21 | AAA MLE | Rochester Red Wings | — | 186 | 174 | 48 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 38 | 4 | 14 | 4 | 276 | 319 | 402 | 721 | 126 | 325 | 20 | 4 | 315 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MLB MLE | Washington Nationals | — | 614 | 565 | 139 | 28 | 7 | 18 | 30 | 118 | 13 | 47 | 4 | 246 | 299 | 416 | 715 | 170 | 279 | 19 | 5 | 314 | 99 | -1 | +8 | -3 | +7 | +13 | 2.4 |
| 2024 | 23 | MLB MLE | Washington Nationals | — | 602 | 544 | 134 | 29 | 7 | 20 | 37 | 128 | 16 | 31 | 12 | 246 | 313 | 436 | 749 | 189 | 285 | 21 | 6 | 329 | 109 | +6 | +1 | -11 | +6 | +13 | 1.7 |
| 2025 | 24 | MLB MLE | Washington Nationals | — | 635 | 581 | 149 | 34 | 6 | 19 | 36 | 125 | 14 | 31 | 3 | 256 | 315 | 434 | 749 | 177 | 296 | 20 | 6 | 331 | 110 | +8 | +5 | -5 | +7 | +14 | 2.9 |
| 2026 | 25 | MLB MLE | Washington Nationals | — | 654 | 583 | 152 | 30 | 5 | 33 | 53 | 158 | 12 | 34 | 6 | 261 | 335 | 499 | 834 | 238 | 299 | 24 | 8 | 361 | 131 | +24 | +4 | -3 | +7 | +14 | 4.7 |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Padres 1 | — | 156 | 146 | 43 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 20 | 2 | 14 | 6 | 295 | 331 | 473 | 804 | 178 | 325 | 13 | 4 | 341 | 117 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK RAW | AZL Padres 1 | — | 156 | 142 | 57 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 10 | 14 | 2 | 14 | 6 | 401 | 448 | 662 | 1.110 | 261 | 425 | 9 | 6 | 473 | 117 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | AA MLE | San Antonio Missions | — | 183 | 166 | 48 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 46 | 3 | 13 | 2 | 289 | 344 | 410 | 754 | 120 | 383 | 25 | 6 | 322 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | AA RAW | San Antonio Missions | — | 183 | 162 | 48 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 36 | 3 | 13 | 2 | 296 | 367 | 420 | 786 | 123 | 365 | 20 | 8 | 348 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 488 | 458 | 119 | 17 | 4 | 7 | 12 | 88 | 13 | 21 | 8 | 260 | 298 | 360 | 658 | 100 | 306 | 18 | 2 | 289 | 81 | -11 | +1 | -5 | +5 | +11 | 0.1 |
| 2022 | 21 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 488 | 455 | 123 | 18 | 3 | 9 | 15 | 83 | 13 | 21 | 8 | 270 | 313 | 382 | 695 | 112 | 311 | 17 | 3 | 309 | 81 | -11 | +1 | -5 | +5 | +11 | 0.1 |
| 2023 | 22 | MLB MLE | Washington Nationals | — | 614 | 565 | 139 | 28 | 7 | 18 | 30 | 118 | 13 | 47 | 4 | 246 | 299 | 416 | 715 | 170 | 280 | 19 | 5 | 314 | 99 | -1 | +8 | -3 | +7 | +13 | 2.4 |
| 2023 | 22 | MLB RAW | Washington Nationals | — | 614 | 563 | 138 | 28 | 6 | 18 | 32 | 118 | 13 | 47 | 4 | 245 | 301 | 412 | 713 | 167 | 279 | 19 | 5 | 314 | 99 | -1 | +8 | -3 | +7 | +13 | 2.4 |
| 2024 | 23 | MLB MLE | Washington Nationals | — | 602 | 544 | 134 | 29 | 7 | 20 | 37 | 128 | 16 | 31 | 12 | 246 | 313 | 436 | 749 | 189 | 285 | 21 | 6 | 329 | 109 | +6 | +1 | -11 | +6 | +13 | 1.7 |
| 2024 | 23 | MLB RAW | Washington Nationals | — | 602 | 541 | 133 | 29 | 6 | 20 | 40 | 128 | 16 | 31 | 12 | 246 | 317 | 433 | 749 | 187 | 285 | 21 | 7 | 330 | 109 | +6 | +1 | -11 | +6 | +13 | 1.7 |
| 2025 | 24 | MLB MLE | Washington Nationals | — | 635 | 581 | 149 | 34 | 6 | 19 | 36 | 125 | 14 | 31 | 3 | 256 | 315 | 434 | 749 | 177 | 295 | 20 | 6 | 331 | 110 | +8 | +5 | -5 | +7 | +14 | 2.9 |
| 2025 | 24 | MLB RAW | Washington Nationals | — | 635 | 580 | 149 | 35 | 5 | 19 | 37 | 125 | 14 | 31 | 3 | 257 | 317 | 433 | 750 | 176 | 296 | 20 | 6 | 331 | 110 | +8 | +5 | -5 | +7 | +14 | 2.9 |
| 2026 | 25 | MLB MLE | Washington Nationals | — | 654 | 583 | 152 | 30 | 5 | 33 | 53 | 158 | 12 | 34 | 6 | 261 | 335 | 499 | 834 | 238 | 299 | 24 | 8 | 361 | 131 | +24 | +4 | -3 | +7 | +14 | 4.7 |
| 2026 | 25 | MLB RAW | Washington Nationals | — | 654 | 579 | 151 | 30 | 4 | 33 | 57 | 158 | 12 | 34 | 6 | 261 | 340 | 497 | 837 | 237 | 299 | 24 | 9 | 364 | 131 | +24 | +4 | -3 | +7 | +14 | 4.7 |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Padres 1 | — | 156 | 147 | 43 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 20 | 2 | 14 | 6 | 293 | 331 | 469 | 801 | 177 | 317 | 13 | 4 | 341 | 117 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | AA MLE | San Antonio Missions | — | 183 | 167 | 48 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 46 | 3 | 13 | 2 | 287 | 344 | 407 | 752 | 120 | 370 | 25 | 6 | 322 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 488 | 460 | 119 | 17 | 4 | 7 | 12 | 88 | 13 | 21 | 8 | 259 | 298 | 359 | 657 | 100 | 304 | 18 | 2 | 289 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MLB MLE | Washington Nationals | — | 614 | 566 | 139 | 28 | 7 | 18 | 30 | 118 | 13 | 47 | 4 | 246 | 299 | 415 | 715 | 170 | 279 | 19 | 5 | 314 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MLB MLE | Washington Nationals | — | 602 | 544 | 134 | 29 | 7 | 20 | 37 | 128 | 16 | 31 | 12 | 246 | 313 | 436 | 749 | 189 | 285 | 21 | 6 | 329 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MLB MLE | Washington Nationals | — | 635 | 580 | 149 | 34 | 6 | 19 | 36 | 125 | 14 | 31 | 3 | 257 | 315 | 434 | 750 | 178 | 296 | 20 | 6 | 331 | 110 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | MLB MLE | Washington Nationals | — | 654 | 584 | 152 | 30 | 5 | 33 | 53 | 158 | 12 | 34 | 6 | 260 | 335 | 498 | 833 | 238 | 299 | 24 | 8 | 361 | 131 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 23 | MLB MLE | Washington Nationals | — | 602 | 544 | 134 | 29 | 7 | 20 | 37 | 128 | 16 | 31 | 12 | 246 | 313 | 436 | 749 | 189 | 285 | 21 | 6 | 329 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MLB MLE | Washington Nationals | — | 635 | 580 | 149 | 34 | 6 | 19 | 36 | 125 | 14 | 31 | 3 | 257 | 315 | 434 | 750 | 178 | 296 | 20 | 6 | 331 | 110 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | MLB MLE | Washington Nationals | — | 654 | 584 | 152 | 30 | 5 | 33 | 53 | 158 | 12 | 34 | 6 | 260 | 335 | 498 | 833 | 238 | 299 | 24 | 8 | 361 | 131 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB MLE | WSH | 100% | 619 | 556 | 139 | 27 | 5 | 26 | 46 | 141 | 12 | 32 | 7 | 251 | 321 | 459 | 781 | 208 | 287 | 23 | 7 | 342 | 118 | +13 | +4 | -12 | +7 | +13 | 2.5 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB CTX | WSH | 100% | 614 | 551 | 138 | 28 | 4 | 26 | 46 | 140 | 12 | 32 | 7 | 250 | 321 | 456 | 777 | 206 | 286 | 23 | 7 | 341 | 118 | +13 | +4 | -12 | +7 | +13 | 2.5 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 27 | MLB MLE | WSH | 100% | 614 | 551 | 138 | 27 | 5 | 26 | 46 | 140 | 12 | 32 | 7 | 250 | 321 | 457 | 777 | 207 | 287 | 23 | 7 | 341 | 117 | +12 | +4 | -12 | +7 | +13 | 2.4 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB MLE | WSH | 100% | 601 | 540 | 134 | 26 | 5 | 25 | 45 | 139 | 11 | 28 | 6 | 248 | 319 | 452 | 771 | 204 | 286 | 23 | 7 | 338 | 115 | +11 | +3 | -13 | +6 | +13 | 2.1 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB MLE | WSH | 100% | 580 | 521 | 128 | 25 | 4 | 24 | 43 | 136 | 11 | 24 | 5 | 246 | 316 | 446 | 762 | 201 | 285 | 23 | 7 | 335 | 113 | +9 | +3 | -13 | +6 | +13 | 1.8 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB MLE | WSH | 100% | 561 | 505 | 122 | 24 | 4 | 22 | 41 | 133 | 10 | 19 | 5 | 243 | 312 | 439 | 751 | 196 | 283 | 24 | 7 | 330 | 110 | +6 | +2 | -13 | +6 | +12 | 1.3 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB MLE | WSH | 100% | 542 | 488 | 117 | 23 | 4 | 21 | 39 | 131 | 10 | 13 | 4 | 238 | 307 | 429 | 736 | 190 | 280 | 24 | 7 | 324 | 106 | +4 | +1 | -14 | +6 | +12 | 0.9 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB MLE | WSH | 100% | 518 | 467 | 109 | 21 | 4 | 19 | 37 | 127 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 233 | 301 | 415 | 716 | 183 | 276 | 25 | 7 | 316 | 100 | +0 | +0 | -14 | +6 | +11 | 0.4 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB MLE | WSH | 100% | 482 | 438 | 98 | 18 | 3 | 17 | 33 | 121 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 225 | 293 | 398 | 691 | 173 | 270 | 25 | 7 | 306 | 93 | -4 | -0 | -14 | +5 | +10 | -0.2 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB MLE | WSH | 100% | 426 | 387 | 84 | 15 | 3 | 14 | 29 | 110 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 216 | 282 | 378 | 660 | 162 | 262 | 26 | 7 | 293 | 85 | -8 | +0 | -13 | +5 | +9 | -0.7 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB CTX | WSH | 100% | 614 | 551 | 137 | 27 | 4 | 26 | 46 | 140 | 12 | 32 | 7 | 249 | 320 | 454 | 774 | 205 | 286 | 23 | 7 | 339 | 117 | +12 | +4 | -12 | +7 | +13 | 2.4 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB CTX | WSH | 100% | 601 | 540 | 134 | 27 | 4 | 25 | 45 | 139 | 11 | 28 | 6 | 247 | 318 | 449 | 767 | 202 | 285 | 23 | 7 | 337 | 115 | +11 | +3 | -13 | +6 | +13 | 2.1 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB CTX | WSH | 100% | 580 | 521 | 129 | 26 | 4 | 24 | 43 | 136 | 11 | 24 | 5 | 245 | 315 | 443 | 759 | 198 | 284 | 23 | 7 | 334 | 113 | +9 | +3 | -13 | +6 | +13 | 1.8 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB CTX | WSH | 100% | 561 | 505 | 121 | 24 | 3 | 22 | 41 | 133 | 10 | 19 | 5 | 242 | 312 | 436 | 748 | 194 | 282 | 24 | 7 | 329 | 110 | +6 | +2 | -13 | +6 | +12 | 1.3 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB CTX | WSH | 100% | 542 | 488 | 116 | 23 | 3 | 21 | 39 | 131 | 10 | 13 | 4 | 238 | 307 | 426 | 733 | 188 | 279 | 24 | 7 | 323 | 106 | +4 | +1 | -14 | +6 | +12 | 0.9 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB CTX | WSH | 100% | 518 | 467 | 108 | 21 | 3 | 19 | 37 | 127 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 232 | 300 | 413 | 713 | 181 | 275 | 25 | 7 | 315 | 100 | +0 | +0 | -14 | +6 | +11 | 0.4 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB CTX | WSH | 100% | 482 | 438 | 99 | 19 | 3 | 17 | 33 | 121 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 225 | 292 | 396 | 688 | 171 | 269 | 25 | 7 | 305 | 93 | -4 | -0 | -14 | +5 | +10 | -0.2 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB CTX | WSH | 100% | 426 | 387 | 83 | 15 | 2 | 14 | 29 | 110 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 216 | 282 | 376 | 657 | 160 | 261 | 26 | 7 | 292 | 85 | -8 | +0 | -13 | +5 | +9 | -0.7 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 7131 | 6444 | 1568 | 316 | 49 | 260 | 484 | 1616 | 142 | 279 | 62 | 243 | 310 | 429 | 739 | 185 | 284 | 23 | 7 | 325 | 107 | +58 | +31 | -132 | +78 | +155 | 19.4 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 587 | 143 | 29 | 4 | 24 | 44 | 147 | 13 | 25 | 6 | 244 | 311 | 429 | 740 | 186 | 283 | 23 | 7 | 325 | 107 | +5 | +3 | -12 | +7 | +14 | 1.8 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 8270 | 7491 | 1852 | 366 | 72 | 295 | 544 | 1860 | 163 | 352 | 81 | 247 | 312 | 433 | 746 | 186 | 289 | 22 | 7 | 327 | 107 | +71 | +35 | -144 | +85 | +168 | 21.9 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 589 | 146 | 29 | 6 | 23 | 43 | 146 | 13 | 28 | 6 | 248 | 314 | 435 | 748 | 187 | 290 | 22 | 7 | 327 | 107 | +6 | +3 | -12 | +7 | +14 | 1.8 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2022 AAARochester Red Wings · 186 PAwOBA .363 → .315 (−48)K% 17.7% → 20.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.74% | ÷1.049 | ×1.200 | — | — | 20.30% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.38% | ÷0.973 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 4.01% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.15% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 2.12% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.26% | ÷1.011 | ×0.930 | ×0.984 | ×1.050 | 26.86% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.35% | ÷0.930 | ×0.830 | ×0.984 | ×1.050 | 4.01% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.72% | ÷0.913 | ×0.970 | ×0.984 | ×1.050 | 0.79% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.07% | ÷1.084 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 3.44% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 102, 2B 86, 3B 83, K 110, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.984.
Result: wOBA .363 → .315; ISO .170 → .127; BABIP .348 → .325. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AASan Antonio Missions · 183 PAwOBA .343 → .322 (−21)K% 19.7% → 25.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.67% | ÷0.949 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.30% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.20% | ÷1.028 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 5.78% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.64% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.050 | 1.46% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.40% | ÷0.989 | ×0.940 | ×1.021 | ×1.050 | 25.87% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.11% | ÷0.925 | ×0.870 | ×1.021 | ×1.050 | 11.20% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.071 | ×0.920 | ×1.021 | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.59% | ÷0.868 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.050 | 1.50% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 98, 2B 85, 3B 114, K 90, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.021.
Result: wOBA .343 → .322; ISO .123 → .120; BABIP .365 → .370. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 ROKAZL Padres 1 · 156 PAwOBA .466 → .341 (−125)K% 9.0% → 12.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 8.97% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 12.92% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.41% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 4.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.28% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.93% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.56% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 20.85% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.38% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 6.46% |
| Triples /BIP | 6.25% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 4.31% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.34% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 1.84% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .466 → .341; ISO .261 → .186; BABIP .425 → .317. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).