Jazz Chisholm Jr.

2B New York Yankees

Age 29 L/R 5'11" / 184 lbs MLB HR +14% Svc 6.436 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

MLB40-MANExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2024	26	MLBNYY	621	.256/.325/.436	24	40	107	3.0
2025	27	MLBNYY	531	.242/.335/.481	31	31	121	3.5
2026	28	MLBNYY	532	.231/.314/.399	19	41	96	1.8
2027PROJ	29	MLBNYY	458	.239/.319/.436	21	32	107	2.4
2028PROJ	30	MLBNYY	444	.235/.315/.427	20	27	104	1.9
2029PROJ	31	MLBNYY	426	.231/.310/.416	18	20	100	1.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 8.3 · Next 3 projected WAR 5.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service6.436First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$13M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Speed71

Barrel%68

Bat Spd61

xwOBA59

Avg EV58

Form.241/.326/.408 · rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .235/.314/.423

CompsDylan Moore (age 30) · B.J. Upton (age 28) · Keon Broxton (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 89107vR 113

AVG/OBP/SLG.239 / .319 / .436

PA458

HR21

SB32

K%28

BB%10

BABIP293

ISO197

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT45

xAVG

230.229

POWER55

Barrel%

6810.9

Avg EV

5889.7

Bat Spd

6172.5

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED50

Sprint

7128.3

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%26%▲▲23% over 44 PA (60d) · proj 28%

BB%11%▲14% over 44 PA (60d) · proj 10%

ISO.168▼.081 over 37 AB (60d) · proj .188

BABIP.294·.370 over 27 BIP (60d) · proj .292

SLASH.241/.326/.408·proj .235/.314/.423

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1252 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

389

863

—

wRC+

122

▶▶R

wOBA

312

349

▶R

ISO

144

225

▶▶R

BABIP

296

297

—

25.2%

26.9%

◀L

BB%

8.0%

9.7%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2020

Service 6.436 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$13M	+2.6	$21M	+$9M
Totals		$13M		$21M	+$9M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2016	18	ROK	Missoula Osprey	—	270	249	70	12	1	9	19	73	1	13	4	281	335	446	780	165	363	27	7	345	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	19	A	Kane County Cougars	—	125	109	27	5	2	1	10	39	3	3	0	248	328	358	686	110	371	31	8	305	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	20	A+	Visalia Rawhide	—	160	149	49	6	2	10	9	52	1	9	2	329	371	597	968	268	443	32	6	418	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	20	A	Kane County Cougars	—	341	307	75	17	4	15	30	97	1	8	2	244	314	472	786	228	303	28	9	342	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	20	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	47	43	19	3	1	3	4	8	0	7	2	442	489	767	1.257	326	500	17	9	540	251	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	AA	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	458	395	87	10	7	21	52	147	8	16	4	220	323	441	764	220	287	32	11	337	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	INTL	Criollos de Caguas	—	39	35	10	1	1	1	2	8	1	2	0	286	342	457	799	171	333	21	5	345	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	22	MLB	Miami Marlins	—	62	56	9	1	1	2	5	19	1	2	2	161	242	321	563	161	200	31	8	255	64	-3	-0	-1	+0	+1	-0.2
2021	23	MLB	Miami Marlins	—	507	464	115	20	4	18	34	145	4	23	8	248	305	425	729	177	319	29	7	320	111	+6	+1	-1	+2	+11	2.0
2022	24	MLB	Miami Marlins	—	241	213	54	10	4	14	21	66	3	12	5	254	328	535	863	282	294	27	9	369	146	+13	+0	+3	+1	+5	2.3
2023	25	MLB	Miami Marlins	—	383	352	88	12	2	19	26	118	2	22	3	250	305	457	763	207	318	31	7	333	119	+9	+3	+2	+1	+8	2.4
2023	25	AAA	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	16	12	3	1	0	0	4	1	0	1	0	250	438	333	771	83	273	6	25	368	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	MLB	New York Yankees	—	621	562	144	21	4	24	53	152	4	40	10	256	325	436	761	180	309	24	9	337	107	+5	+4	+5	+2	+13	3.0
2025	27	MLB	New York Yankees	—	531	462	112	15	1	31	58	148	6	31	8	242	335	481	815	238	282	28	11	356	121	+13	+3	+4	+2	+12	3.5
2026	28	MLB	New York Yankees	—	532	471	109	16	3	19	56	157	1	41	9	231	314	399	714	168	301	30	11	318	96	-3	+5	+3	+2	+12	1.8
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	2877	2580	631	95	19	127	253	805	21	171	45	245	317	444	761	199	303	28	9	334	112	+42	+16	+15	+10	+62	14.9
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2016	18	ROK MLE	Missoula Osprey	—	270	256	51	8	1	6	12	105	1	13	4	199	238	309	547	109	301	39	4	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	19	A MLE	Kane County Cougars	—	125	112	22	4	2	1	7	54	3	3	0	196	262	295	557	98	335	43	6	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	20	A+ MLE	Visalia Rawhide	—	160	151	40	4	2	8	7	68	1	9	2	265	302	477	779	212	411	42	4	329	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	20	A MLE	Kane County Cougars	—	341	315	57	12	3	11	22	135	1	8	2	181	237	343	580	162	258	40	6	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	AA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	458	410	77	9	7	18	37	178	8	16	4	188	268	376	644	188	262	39	8	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	22	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	62	56	9	1	1	2	5	19	1	2	2	161	242	321	563	161	200	31	8	263	64	-3	-0	-1	+0	+1	-0.2
2021	23	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	507	464	119	22	4	19	34	145	4	23	8	256	313	444	757	188	319	29	7	332	111	+6	+1	-1	+2	+11	2.0
2022	24	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	241	214	56	11	4	15	21	66	3	12	5	262	336	561	897	299	294	27	9	383	146	+13	+0	+3	+1	+5	2.3
2023	25	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	383	352	91	13	2	20	26	118	2	22	3	259	313	477	790	219	318	31	7	345	119	+9	+3	+2	+1	+8	2.4
2023	25	AAA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	16	13	3	1	0	0	3	1	0	1	0	231	375	308	683	77	253	6	19	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	621	567	142	21	4	22	48	152	4	40	10	250	313	418	731	168	309	24	8	327	107	+5	+4	+5	+2	+13	3.0
2025	27	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	531	463	110	15	1	29	57	148	6	31	8	238	329	462	791	225	282	28	11	348	121	+13	+3	+4	+2	+12	3.5
2026	28	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	532	474	108	16	3	18	53	157	1	41	9	228	307	388	695	160	301	30	10	309	96	-3	+5	+3	+2	+12	1.8
2016	18	ROK MLE	Missoula Osprey	—	270	256	51	8	1	6	12	105	1	13	4	199	238	309	547	109	308	39	4	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	18	ROK RAW	Missoula Osprey	—	270	249	70	12	1	9	19	73	1	13	4	281	335	446	780	165	363	27	7	345	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	19	A MLE	Kane County Cougars	—	125	112	22	4	2	1	7	54	3	3	0	196	262	295	557	98	362	43	6	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	19	A RAW	Kane County Cougars	—	125	109	27	5	2	1	10	39	3	3	0	248	328	358	686	110	371	31	8	305	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	20	A MLE	3 teams	—	548	511	106	17	5	22	31	222	2	24	6	207	256	389	645	182	310	41	6	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	20	A RAW	3 teams	—	548	499	143	26	7	28	43	157	2	24	6	287	346	535	881	248	362	29	8	381	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	AA MLE	2 teams	—	497	444	83	10	7	20	40	193	9	18	4	187	268	376	644	189	268	39	8	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	AA RAW	2 teams	—	497	430	97	11	8	22	54	155	9	18	4	226	325	442	766	216	292	31	11	338	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	22	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	62	56	9	1	1	2	5	19	1	2	2	161	242	321	563	161	200	31	8	263	64	-3	-0	-1	+0	+1	-0.2
2020	22	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	—	62	56	9	1	1	2	5	19	1	2	2	161	242	321	563	161	200	31	8	255	64	-3	-0	-1	+0	+1	-0.2
2021	23	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	507	464	119	22	4	19	34	145	4	23	8	256	313	444	757	188	330	29	7	332	111	+6	+1	-1	+2	+11	2.0
2021	23	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	—	507	464	115	20	4	18	34	145	4	23	8	248	305	425	729	177	319	29	7	320	111	+6	+1	-1	+2	+11	2.0
2022	24	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	241	214	56	11	4	15	21	66	3	12	5	262	336	561	897	299	301	27	9	383	146	+13	+0	+3	+1	+5	2.3
2022	24	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	—	241	213	54	10	4	14	21	66	3	12	5	254	328	535	863	282	294	27	9	369	146	+13	+0	+3	+1	+5	2.3
2023	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	399	365	94	14	2	20	29	119	2	23	3	258	316	471	787	214	325	30	7	343	119	+9	+3	+2	+1	+9	2.5
2023	25	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	399	364	91	13	2	19	30	119	2	23	3	250	311	453	764	203	316	30	8	334	119	+9	+3	+2	+1	+9	2.5
2024	26	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	621	567	142	21	4	22	48	152	4	40	10	250	313	418	731	168	304	24	8	327	107	+5	+4	+5	+2	+13	3.0
2024	26	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	—	621	562	144	21	4	24	53	152	4	40	10	256	325	436	761	180	309	24	9	337	107	+5	+4	+5	+2	+13	3.0
2025	27	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	531	463	110	15	1	29	57	148	6	31	8	238	329	462	791	225	279	28	11	348	121	+13	+3	+4	+2	+12	3.5
2025	27	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	—	531	462	112	15	1	31	58	148	6	31	8	242	335	481	815	238	282	28	11	356	121	+13	+3	+4	+2	+12	3.5
2026	28	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	532	474	108	16	3	18	53	157	1	41	9	228	307	388	695	160	297	30	10	309	96	-3	+5	+3	+2	+12	1.8
2026	28	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	—	532	471	109	16	3	19	56	157	1	41	9	231	314	399	714	168	301	30	11	318	96	-3	+5	+3	+2	+12	1.8
2016	18	ROK MLE	Missoula Osprey	—	270	255	51	8	1	6	12	105	1	13	4	200	238	310	548	110	301	39	4	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	19	A MLE	Kane County Cougars	—	125	114	22	4	2	1	7	54	3	3	0	193	262	289	552	96	335	43	6	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	20	A MLE	3 teams	—	548	510	106	17	5	22	31	222	2	24	6	208	256	390	646	182	307	41	6	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	AA MLE	2 teams	—	497	445	83	10	7	20	40	193	9	18	4	187	268	375	643	189	262	39	8	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	22	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	62	56	9	1	1	2	5	19	1	2	2	161	242	321	563	161	200	31	8	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	507	464	119	22	4	19	34	145	4	23	8	256	313	444	757	188	319	29	7	332	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	241	215	56	11	4	15	21	66	3	12	5	260	336	558	894	298	294	27	9	383	146	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	399	365	94	14	2	20	29	119	2	23	3	258	316	471	787	214	315	30	7	343	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	621	564	142	21	4	22	48	152	4	40	10	252	313	420	734	168	309	24	8	327	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	531	463	110	15	1	29	57	148	6	31	8	238	329	462	791	225	282	28	11	348	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	28	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	532	473	108	16	3	18	53	157	1	41	9	228	307	389	696	161	301	30	10	309	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	26	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	621	564	142	21	4	22	48	152	4	40	10	252	313	420	734	168	309	24	8	327	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	531	463	110	15	1	29	57	148	6	31	8	238	329	462	791	225	282	28	11	348	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	28	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	532	473	108	16	3	18	53	157	1	41	9	228	307	389	696	161	301	30	10	309	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	29	MLB MLE	NYY	100%	521	461	109	15	3	22	52	147	3	37	8	236	316	423	740	188	292	28	10	327	107	+5	+4	+5	+2	+11	2.6
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	29	MLB CTX	NYY	100%	458	407	97	13	2	21	46	129	2	32	7	239	319	436	755	197	293	28	10	333	107	+4	+4	+4	+2	+10	2.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	NYY	100%	444	395	92	13	2	18	44	126	2	27	6	232	313	415	727	182	289	28	10	322	104	+2	+3	+2	+2	+10	1.9
2029	31	MLB MLE	NYY	100%	426	379	87	12	2	17	42	123	2	20	5	228	307	404	711	176	285	29	10	316	100	-0	+2	+1	+2	+9	1.4
2030	32	MLB MLE	NYY	100%	402	359	80	10	2	16	39	118	1	14	4	222	301	390	690	168	280	29	10	307	94	-3	+1	+0	+1	+9	0.9
2031	33	MLB MLE	NYY	100%	365	326	70	9	1	13	35	109	1	8	3	215	292	373	665	158	273	30	10	297	87	-6	+0	-1	+1	+8	0.3
2028	30	MLB CTX	NYY	100%	444	395	93	12	2	20	44	126	2	27	6	235	315	427	742	192	290	28	10	328	104	+2	+3	+2	+2	+10	1.9
2029	31	MLB CTX	NYY	100%	426	379	87	11	2	18	42	123	2	20	5	231	310	416	725	185	286	29	10	321	100	-0	+2	+1	+2	+9	1.4
2030	32	MLB CTX	NYY	100%	402	359	81	10	2	17	39	118	1	14	4	224	303	401	704	177	281	29	10	312	94	-3	+1	+0	+1	+9	0.9
2031	33	MLB CTX	NYY	100%	365	326	70	8	1	14	35	109	1	8	3	217	295	383	678	166	274	30	10	302	87	-6	+0	-1	+1	+8	0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	4514	4039	962	136	26	196	413	1281	27	240	63	238	313	430	743	192	296	28	9	328	97	+36	+23	+18	+16	+98	19.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	582	139	20	4	28	59	184	4	35	9	239	313	431	744	192	297	28	9	328	97	+5	+3	+3	+2	+14	2.8
Career	—	MLE		—	6428	5792	1324	196	43	257	543	1985	44	331	84	229	300	410	710	182	297	31	8	312	97	+40	+26	+23	+18	+108	21.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	586	134	20	4	26	55	201	4	33	8	229	299	410	709	181	298	31	8	312	97	+5	+3	+3	+2	+14	2.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2023 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 16 PAwOBA .360 → .312 (−48)K% 6.2% → 7.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	6.25%	÷1.040	×1.200	—	—	7.21%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	25.00%	÷1.008	×0.690	—	×1.033	17.67%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	0.00%
Singles /BIP	18.18%	÷1.016	×0.930	—	×1.033	17.19%
Doubles /BIP	9.09%	÷0.955	×0.830	—	×1.033	8.16%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.039	×0.970	—	×1.033	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.031	×0.700	—	×1.033	0.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 103, 2B 91, 3B 108, K 108, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .360 → .312; ISO .083 → .082; BABIP .273 → .253. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 458 PAwOBA .330 → .276 (−54)K% 32.1% → 38.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	32.10%	÷1.007	×1.220	—	—	38.90%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.35%	÷1.015	×0.680	—	×1.050	7.99%
HBP% /PA	1.75%	—	×0.840	—	×1.050	1.54%
Singles /BIP	19.76%	÷1.008	×0.920	×0.950	×1.050	17.99%
Doubles /BIP	4.03%	÷0.975	×0.910	×0.950	×1.050	3.76%
Triples /BIP	2.82%	÷0.900	×0.880	×0.950	×1.050	2.75%
Home runs /BIP	8.47%	÷0.918	×0.800	—	×1.050	7.74%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 102, 2B 95, 3B 80, K 101, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .330 → .276; ISO .220 → .194; BABIP .287 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AKane County Cougars · 341 PAwOBA .335 → .250 (−85)K% 28.4% → 39.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.45%	÷0.975	×1.360	—	—	39.66%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.80%	÷0.974	×0.690	—	×1.030	6.42%
HBP% /PA	0.29%	—	×0.780	—	×1.030	0.24%
Singles /BIP	18.57%	÷1.014	×0.920	×0.961	×1.030	16.67%
Doubles /BIP	8.10%	÷1.039	×0.830	×0.961	×1.030	6.40%
Triples /BIP	1.90%	÷1.150	×0.910	×0.961	×1.030	1.49%
Home runs /BIP	7.14%	÷0.937	×0.800	—	×1.030	6.28%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 103, 2B 108, 3B 130, K 95, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.961.

Result: wOBA .335 → .250; ISO .228 → .168; BABIP .303 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 A+Visalia Rawhide · 160 PAwOBA .408 → .329 (−79)K% 32.5% → 42.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	32.50%	÷1.029	×1.340	—	—	42.32%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.62%	÷1.008	×0.710	—	×1.042	4.13%
HBP% /PA	0.62%	—	×0.790	—	×1.042	0.51%
Singles /BIP	31.96%	÷0.978	×0.910	×0.994	×1.042	30.82%
Doubles /BIP	6.19%	÷1.051	×0.820	×0.994	×1.042	5.00%
Triples /BIP	2.06%	÷0.900	×0.760	×0.994	×1.042	1.80%
Home runs /BIP	10.31%	÷1.018	×0.920	—	×1.042	9.71%

Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 96, 2B 110, 3B 80, K 106, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.

Result: wOBA .408 → .329; ISO .268 → .215; BABIP .443 → .411. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AKane County Cougars · 125 PAwOBA .300 → .235 (−65)K% 31.2% → 43.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	31.20%	÷0.987	×1.360	—	—	42.98%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.00%	÷1.009	×0.690	—	×1.045	5.72%
HBP% /PA	2.40%	—	×0.780	—	×1.045	1.96%
Singles /BIP	27.14%	÷1.012	×0.920	×0.964	×1.045	24.86%
Doubles /BIP	7.14%	÷0.985	×0.830	×0.964	×1.045	6.06%
Triples /BIP	2.86%	÷0.977	×0.910	×0.964	×1.045	2.68%
Home runs /BIP	1.43%	÷0.899	×0.800	—	×1.045	1.33%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 102, 2B 97, 3B 95, K 97, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.964.

Result: wOBA .300 → .235; ISO .110 → .087; BABIP .371 → .335. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 ROKMissoula Osprey · 270 PAwOBA .337 → .234 (−102)K% 27.0% → 38.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.04%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	38.93%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.04%	÷1.000	×0.610	—	×1.022	4.39%
HBP% /PA	0.37%	—	×0.720	—	×1.022	0.27%
Singles /BIP	27.27%	÷1.000	×0.820	×1.029	×1.022	23.54%
Doubles /BIP	6.82%	÷1.000	×0.720	×1.029	×1.022	5.17%
Triples /BIP	0.57%	÷1.000	×0.720	×1.029	×1.022	0.43%
Home runs /BIP	5.11%	÷1.000	×0.750	—	×1.022	3.92%

Factors used: league row PIO. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.029.

Result: wOBA .337 → .234; ISO .165 → .109; BABIP .363 → .301. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jose Valentin'92-'07 * career totals — 15 seasons, 6,317 PA	9.5	6,317	249	136	233*	309*	433*	+53	+78	31.1	27.3
/162	664	26	14	+5.6	+8.2	3.3	pk7: 24
#2Ian Desmondlast yr '19 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,944 PA	9.0	5,944	181	181	263	315	427	+30	-4	25.8	25.0
/162	664	20	20	+3.3	-0.4	2.9	pk7: 24
#3Phil Garner'73-'88 * career totals — 13 seasons, 6,860 PA	10.3	6,860	109	225	256*	321*	420*	+25	+14	26.6	24.1
/162	664	11	22	+2.5	+1.3	2.6	pk7: 22
#4Jason Kipnislast yr '20 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,984 PA	7.5	4,984	126	136	260	333	416	+18	-11	22.6	21.9
/162	664	17	18	+2.4	-1.4	3.0	pk7: 21
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 12 projected seasons	7.5	4,972	211	272	238	310	428	+18	+28	21.6	19.5
/162	664	28	36	+2.4	+3.8	2.9	pk7: 17
#5Bill Halllast yr '11 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,621 PA	5.5	3,621	123	62	249	308	437	+22	+7	15.9	16.6
/162	664	23	11	+4.1	+1.3	2.9	pk7: 17
#6Aaron Boone'97-'09 * career totals — 11 seasons, 4,329 PA	6.5	4,329	126	107	252*	314*	412*	+7	+24	15.3	15.6
/162	664	19	16	+1.1	+3.8	2.3	pk7: 16

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jazz Chisholm Jr. (OGILVIE)	29	45	55	50	50	234/314/420	186	292	19	32	28%	10%	107	+1.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Dylan Moore 2023 · MLB	30	43→49	51→55	57→65	52	219/326/387	168	288	18	35	29%	11%	105	+1.7	214/315/385	171	288	18	32	30%	11%	100	+1.3	199/300/371	172	267	19	37	31%	10%	91	+0.3
✕B.J. Upton 2013 · MLB	28	46→56	56→60	57→60	48	241/309/438	197	292	24	30	26%	9%	109	+2.0	217/286/363	146	291	17	21	30%	9%	83	+0.1	225/287/370	145	297	17	25	29%	8%	85	+0.2
✕Keon Broxton 2018 · MLB	28	48→52	53→55	60	44	230/306/408	177	343	20	33	36%	9%	101	+1.4	198/269/339	141	335	17	29	42%	8%	72	-0.7	157/231/263	106	293	14	30	48%	8%	39	-1.6
✕Cedric Mullins 2024 · MLB	29	48→55	51→55	56→60	50	246/310/412	167	281	18	25	20%	8%	103	+1.6	225/298/388	163	259	20	27	21%	9%	93	+0.8	214/293/373	160	242	20	30	21%	9%	89	+0.4
✕Jonathan Villar 2020 · MLB	29	53→60	49→50	58→65	47	262/325/412	150	334	17	32	26%	8%	108	+1.9	249/312/391	142	320	16	26	26%	8%	99	+1.2	237/298/368	131	306	15	25	26%	8%	88	+0.3
✕Jake Fraley 2024 · MLB	29	48→47	53→55	53→55	54	248/333/422	174	287	22	22	22%	10%	114	+2.4	249/318/386	137	300	14	21	21%	8%	100	+1.3	244/312/364	120	300	11	22	21%	8%	93	+0.3
✕Carlos Gómez 2015 · MLB	29	56→58	55→60	60→65	45	280/342/478	199	335	22	34	23%	7%	130	+3.5	252/317/419	167	316	18	23	25%	7%	107	+1.9	238/307/398	160	305	18	21	27%	7%	98	+0.9
✕Corey Patterson 2007 · MLB	27	49→54	51→55	60	41	250/286/407	157	291	19	34	22%	4%	93	+0.8	239/274/371	132	274	14	32	18%	4%	80	-0.2	234/269/352	118	293	11	28	23%	4%	72	-0.5
✕Sam Haggerty 2023 · MLB	29	49→43	48→50	62→65	45	241/307/390	148	306	14	32	25%	7%	97	+1.1	251/323/380	129	314	11	35	22%	8%	100	+1.3	242/316/354	112	309	7	38	22%	9%	90	+0.3
●Will Venable 2012 · MLB	29	47→55	50→55	63→60	45	238/298/398	160	299	17	28	26%	7%	95	+1.0	253/309/420	167	309	16	26	23%	7%	104	+1.6	253/308/416	163	306	16	24	22%	7%	104	+1.3
●Mike Cameron 2003 · MLB	30	49→53	55→60	58→55	54	249/341/444	196	305	22	27	25%	11%	122	+2.9	247/332/450	203	300	23	21	25%	10%	120	+2.8	248/335/455	208	302	23	20	25%	10%	123	+3.0
★Preston Wilson 2001 · MLB	27	51→52	59→60	54→55	46	262/328/476	214	325	27	28	28%	8%	125	+3.2	263/328/476	213	308	27	21	23%	8%	125	+3.2	264/331/484	220	301	28	18	22%	8%	129	+3.3
●Jacoby Ellsbury 2012 · MLB	28	58→68	54→55	59→65	51	296/350/481	186	311	20	35	13%	7%	133	+3.7	279/331/426	147	308	15	33	14%	7%	114	+2.3	268/325/387	119	306	10	38	15%	7%	103	+1.5
✕Kevin Kiermaier 2018 · MLB	28	50→58	51→55	55	48	255/315/421	166	298	18	22	21%	7%	107	+1.8	230/290/392	162	280	16	20	23%	7%	91	+0.7	249/311/390	141	319	11	17	24%	7%	99	+0.7
✕Jose Siri 2024 · MLB	29	43→53	61→60	56→55	37	232/281/451	219	306	30	21	34%	6%	102	+1.5	208/267/394	186	290	25	18	36%	6%	84	+0.1	205/265/377	172	283	23	19	35%	6%	79	-0.1
✕Austin Slater 2022 · MLB	29	49→59	55	56→55	50	251/336/439	187	318	23	22	27%	10%	119	+2.7	255/343/401	146	341	16	17	27%	11%	113	+2.3	250/347/369	119	345	12	14	28%	11%	108	+0.8
✕Mark Mathias 2023 · MLB	28	53→47	52→50	54→50	46	261/331/429	168	344	20	21	29%	8%	115	+2.4	249/329/369	120	334	12	16	27%	10%	100	+1.3	250/341/321	72	341	6	14	25%	11%	93	+0.4
✕Roger Bernadina 2013 · MLB	29	51→61	46→45	56→60	48	253/316/381	128	304	14	28	21%	8%	98	+1.2	214/289/332	118	290	11	18	28%	8%	77	-0.3	219/285/332	113	308	11	20	31%	7%	73	-0.4
✕Drew Stubbs 2013 · MLB	28	46→56	46→50	57→60	46	229/298/356	127	310	15	31	30%	8%	86	+0.3	235/300/372	137	330	15	24	31%	8%	90	+0.6	233/301/372	139	331	14	24	32%	8%	90	+0.4
✕Trey Cabbage 2024 · MLB	27	48	56→55	58→55	38	238/295/431	193	357	24	24	39%	7%	103	+1.5	223/286/389	166	345	19	25	38%	8%	89	+0.5	196/267/358	162	312	17	31	40%	8%	73	-0.4

Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps