Jake Fraley — OGILVIE

Jake FraleyRF Tampa Bay Rays

Age 31 L/L 5'11" / 206 lbs MLB HR -6%H +4% Svc 5.564 · Ctrl thru 2026 ILInjured 10-Day (D10)

2026 ROS PROJECTION90 act + 69 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 5393vR 109

AVG/OBP/SLG.238 / .304 / .381

PA69

HR2

K%22

BB%9

BABIP283

ISO143

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 50 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT50

Whiff%

609.9%

xwOBA

390.296

POWER40

Barrel%

214.5

Avg EV

1084.5

Bat Spd

5571.9

EYE45

Chase%

6429.0%

SPEED60

Sprint

7128.3

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 637 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

581

—

wRC+

106

▶▶R

wOBA

253

324

▶▶R

ISO

056

136

▶▶R

BABIP

261

316

▶▶R

12.5%

20.7%

◀◀L

BB%

1.8%

9.0%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2019

Service 5.564 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$1M	+0.1	$0.3M	-$0.9M
Totals		$1M		$0.3M	-$0.9M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2017	22	INTL	3 teams	—	320	298	46	12	2	5	16	98	3	43	9	154	205	258	463	104	207	31	5	212	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	INTL	3 teams	—	320	278	84	19	2	15	36	53	3	43	9	302	388	547	935	245	324	17	11	405	168	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	A+	Charlotte Stone Crabs	—	260	232	65	17	4	5	19	65	4	11	8	280	345	453	798	172	359	25	7	342	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	A+	Charlotte Stone Crabs	—	260	225	78	19	7	4	26	44	4	11	8	347	424	547	970	200	407	17	10	417	178	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA	3 teams	—	468	435	115	26	4	23	21	126	9	22	7	264	312	501	813	237	318	27	4	346	123	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA	3 teams	—	468	422	120	29	5	19	34	103	9	22	7	284	351	512	862	227	333	22	7	376	146	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	29	26	4	1	1	0	2	11	1	2	1	154	241	269	511	115	267	38	7	236	39	-2	+0	-1	-0	+1	-0.2
2020	25	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	29	26	4	1	1	0	2	11	1	2	1	154	241	269	511	115	267	38	7	236	39	-2	+0	-1	-0	+1	-0.3
2021	26	MLB	2 teams	—	316	257	59	8	0	12	52	89	3	13	3	230	365	401	766	171	296	28	16	341	119	+7	+1	-1	-3	+9	1.3
2021	26	MLB	2 teams	—	316	254	58	8	0	12	55	86	3	13	3	228	372	402	773	173	289	27	17	349	125	+9	+1	-1	-3	+9	1.5
2022	27	MLB	2 teams	—	295	259	64	9	0	12	31	72	3	5	1	247	334	421	755	174	294	24	11	328	109	+3	+1	-3	-3	+8	0.6
2022	27	MLB	2 teams	—	295	257	67	9	0	13	33	68	3	5	1	261	352	447	799	187	303	23	11	354	129	+10	+1	-3	-3	+8	1.3
2023	28	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	380	336	83	17	0	14	37	71	6	21	5	247	332	423	755	176	274	19	10	333	113	+6	+2	-1	-4	+11	1.4
2023	28	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	380	336	86	18	0	15	37	71	6	21	5	256	340	443	784	188	283	19	10	349	125	+11	+2	-1	-4	+11	1.9
2024	29	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	382	350	95	18	2	5	26	70	3	20	5	271	327	377	704	106	324	18	7	312	97	-1	+2	-1	-4	+11	0.7
2024	29	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	382	350	97	19	2	5	26	70	3	20	5	277	332	386	718	109	331	18	7	321	104	+2	+2	-1	-4	+11	1.0
2025	30	MLB	2 teams	—	246	219	50	10	0	7	26	54	1	5	3	228	313	370	683	142	272	22	11	305	92	-2	-0	-2	-3	+7	-0.0
2025	30	MLB	2 teams	—	246	218	51	10	0	7	27	53	1	5	3	234	321	376	697	142	278	22	11	316	100	+0	-0	-2	-3	+7	0.2
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	31	MLB	TB	—	90	82	19	7	0	2	8	25	0	3	0	232	300	390	690	159	309	28	9	305	92	-1	+1	-1	-1	+3	-0.0
YTD	31	MLB	TB	—	90	82	19	7	0	2	8	25	0	3	0	232	300	390	690	159	309	28	9	309	94	-1	+1	-1	-1	+3	0.0
ROS	31	MLB	TB	100%	69	63	15	3	0	2	6	15	0	3	0	238	304	381	685	143	295	22	9	310	96	-0	+1	+0	-1	+2	0.2
ROS	31	MLB	TB	100%	69	63	16	3	0	2	6	15	0	3	0	254	319	397	716	143	298	22	9	306	92	-1	+1	+0	-1	+2	0.2
FULL	31	MLB	TB	—	159	145	35	10	0	4	14	40	0	6	0	241	308	393	701	152	307	25	9	306	92	-1	+1	-1	-2	+5	0.1
TOT	31	MLB	TB	—	159	145	34	10	0	4	14	40	0	6	0	234	302	386	688	152	297	25	9	308	94	-1	+1	-1	-2	+5	0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	32	MLB	TB	100%	314	282	69	14	1	7	27	69	2	10	2	245	315	376	691	131	290	22	9	303	90	-3	+1	-2	-3	+9	0.1
2028	33	MLB	TB	100%	284	256	60	12	0	6	24	64	2	7	1	234	305	352	657	117	284	23	8	295	84	-5	+1	-3	-3	+8	-0.2
2027	32	MLB	TB	100%	314	282	69	13	1	7	27	69	2	10	2	245	315	372	687	128	293	22	9	299	87	-5	+1	-2	-3	+9	-0.0
2028	33	MLB	TB	100%	284	256	59	11	0	6	24	64	2	7	1	230	301	344	645	113	287	23	8	291	81	-6	+1	-3	-3	+8	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2228	1974	484	92	4	62	219	488	21	81	20	245	327	390	717	145	294	22	10	320	103	+8	+8	-14	-23	+63	4.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	576	141	27	1	18	64	142	6	24	6	245	327	389	716	144	294	22	10	320	103	+2	+2	-4	-7	+18	1.2
Career	—			—	3363	3013	725	147	14	98	287	804	37	162	45	241	314	396	711	156	294	24	9	313	97	-10	+14	-14	-29	+95	5.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	582	140	28	3	19	55	155	7	31	9	241	313	397	710	156	294	24	8	313	97	-2	+3	-3	-6	+18	1.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2017	22	A+	Charlotte Stone Crabs	—	105	94	16	3	1	1	7	24	2	1	3	170	243	255	498	85	211	23	7	227	32	-8	-1	—	—	+3	-0.6
2017	22	ROK	GCL Rays	—	17	15	7	3	0	1	2	3	0	3	1	467	529	867	1.396	400	545	18	12	591	310	+4	+0	—	—	+0	0.5
2017	22	INTL	Perth Heat	—	198	169	61	13	1	13	27	26	1	39	5	361	452	680	1.132	320	366	13	14	483	228	+29	+6	—	—	+6	4.1
2018	23	A+	Charlotte Stone Crabs	—	260	225	78	19	7	4	26	44	4	11	8	347	424	547	970	200	407	17	10	417	178	+23	-1	—	—	+7	3.0
2019	24	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	41	40	6	2	0	0	0	14	1	0	0	150	171	200	371	50	231	34	0	169	-13	-5	+0	-0	+2	+1	-0.2
2019	24	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	—	168	152	42	12	3	8	11	34	3	6	2	276	337	553	890	276	304	20	7	381	150	+9	+0	—	—	+5	1.5
2019	24	AA	Arkansas Travelers	—	259	230	72	15	2	11	23	55	5	16	5	313	388	539	927	226	370	21	9	405	168	+20	+1	—	—	+7	2.9
2020	25	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	29	26	4	1	1	0	2	11	1	2	1	154	241	269	511	115	267	38	7	236	39	-2	+0	-1	-0	+1	-0.3
2021	26	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	265	214	45	7	0	9	46	71	2	10	2	210	355	369	724	159	265	27	17	330	111	+3	+1	-1	-3	+8	0.8
2021	26	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	—	51	40	13	1	0	3	9	15	1	3	1	325	460	575	1.035	250	435	29	18	445	199	+6	+0	—	—	+1	0.7
2022	27	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	247	216	56	9	0	12	26	54	3	4	1	259	347	468	815	208	289	22	11	358	132	+9	+0	-3	-3	+7	1.0
2022	27	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	48	41	11	0	0	1	7	14	0	1	0	268	375	341	716	73	385	29	15	334	113	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
2023	28	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	380	336	86	18	0	15	37	71	6	21	5	256	340	443	784	188	283	19	10	349	125	+11	+2	-1	-4	+11	1.9
2024	29	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	382	350	97	19	2	5	26	70	3	20	5	277	332	386	718	109	331	18	7	321	104	+2	+2	-1	-4	+11	1.0
2025	30	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	217	191	46	9	0	6	25	49	1	4	3	241	332	382	714	141	294	23	12	324	106	+1	-0	-2	-3	+6	0.3
2025	30	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	29	27	5	1	0	1	2	4	0	1	0	185	241	333	575	148	182	14	7	258	55	-1	+0	—	—	+1	-0.0
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1561	1373	340	65	3	47	162	340	17	61	17	248	334	402	736	154	295	22	10	330	111	+19	+5	-9	-16	+44	4.4

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1David Delluccilast yr '09 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,658 PA	10	2,658	94	36	249	336	439	-26	-28	7.6	7.9
	/162	664	23	9	249	336	439	-6.5	-7.0	1.9	pk7: 8
#2Alejandro De Azalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,819 PA	8	2,819	51	89	259	325	396	-6	-12	7.0	7.2
	/162	664	12	21	259	325	396	-1.4	-2.8	1.7	pk7: 7
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	9	2,338	66	84	248	327	396	-25	-20	5.8	5.8
	/162	664	19	24	248	327	396	-7.1	-5.8	1.6	pk7: 6
#3Chris Coghlanlast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,905 PA	9	2,905	53	47	258	334	398	-23	-40	4.1	5.1
	/162	664	12	11	258	334	398	-5.2	-9.2	0.9	pk7: 6
#4Ricky Ledeelast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,897 PA	7	1,897	52	21	239	323	404	-8	-6	5.0	5.0
	/162	664	18	7	239	323	404	-2.9	-2.1	1.7	pk7: 5
#5Travis Sniderlast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,971 PA	8	1,971	54	22	244	311	399	-21	-17	1.4	1.8
	/162	664	18	7	244	311	399	-7.1	-5.8	0.5	pk7: 2
#6Ben Franciscolast yr '13 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,771 PA	7	1,771	50	30	253	323	418	-19	-29	1.7	1.7
	/162	664	19	11	253	323	418	-7.1	-10.9	0.6	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jake Fraley (OGILVIE)	31	50	40	60	45	234/302/386	152	297	4	6	25%	9%	94	+0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Ezequiel Carrera 2018 · MLB	31	53→63	45	51→60	50	257/325/374	117	317	13	15	23%	8%	99	+1.7	223/282/332	109	289	11	19	25%	7%	70	-0.3	174/208/234	60	231	3	36	25%	4%	10	-1.2
●Jason Pridie 2015 · AAA	31	46→54	45→50	55	41	229/272/352	122	291	13	19	26%	5%	71	-0.3	254/301/421	167	307	21	19	24%	6%	102	+1.8	275/323/469	194	323	26	19	23%	6%	122	+2.9
✕Justin Christian 2011 · MLB	31	53→57	43→45	59→65	47	257/301/377	120	290	10	26	15%	5%	90	+1.0	252/302/369	117	282	10	28	14%	6%	89	+0.9	251/302/357	107	280	8	29	13%	5%	81	+0.4
✕Roger Bernadina 2014 · MLB	30	46→56	45	55→60	47	228/297/351	123	283	12	21	24%	8%	82	+0.5	210/288/324	114	303	11	18	32%	9%	72	-0.2	221/290/331	110	319	11	20	32%	8%	71	-0.2
✕Pokey Reese 2004 · MLB	31	50→55	41→45	55	51	239/303/336	97	286	8	20	19%	8%	80	+0.4	228/286/332	104	283	10	14	22%	7%	72	-0.2	215/265/295	80	271	7	13	22%	6%	50	-0.8
✕Don Kelly 2010 · MLB	30	52→59	41→45	56→55	49	250/300/353	103	281	7	18	14%	6%	82	+0.5	244/292/367	123	272	14	13	16%	6%	83	+0.6	222/294/336	114	241	13	8	14%	9%	74	-0.0
✕Anthony Seratelli 2014 · AAA	31	47→49	45	57→55	48	230/299/351	121	288	13	22	24%	8%	83	+0.6	227/296/343	116	311	11	16	28%	8%	79	+0.3	216/293/321	104	315	9	14	32%	9%	70	-0.2
✕Chris Dickerson 2013 · MLB	31	52→55	46→50	60	47	246/316/381	135	339	12	29	29%	9%	98	+1.6	240/308/373	133	333	13	20	29%	8%	92	+1.2	235/319/362	127	334	13	19	31%	10%	91	+0.6
✕Jeff Salazar 2012 · MLB	31	41→51	45→50	57→55	48	208/273/322	114	252	14	27	23%	8%	65	-0.7	209/267/322	113	265	13	16	25%	7%	62	-0.9	181/229/260	79	227	9	9	24%	5%	26	-1.3
✕Damian Jackson 2005 · MLB	31	49→54	42→45	52→55	49	235/293/344	108	277	9	26	18%	7%	78	+0.2	242/323/375	133	285	14	18	19%	10%	99	+1.7	241/328/365	124	282	13	20	19%	10%	96	+0.6
✕Jace Peterson 2021 · MLB	31	47→57	49→50	55	52	236/313/390	155	284	15	18	22%	10%	99	+1.7	236/323/382	146	299	16	18	25%	11%	101	+1.8	227/319/357	130	289	14	20	25%	11%	89	+0.6
✕Jordany Valdespin 2019 · AAA	31	54→53	42→50	51→55	47	262/313/370	107	304	9	19	17%	6%	92	+1.2	247/287/380	133	273	16	13	16%	5%	85	+0.7	254/285/378	123	269	17	11	13%	3%	79	+0.1
✕Nick Buss 2018 · MLB	31	50→58	43→50	52→55	44	243/288/365	122	293	9	12	20%	6%	81	+0.4	228/278/347	119	287	11	12	24%	6%	72	-0.2	191/244/276	85	249	7	11	25%	5%	39	-0.7
✕Tim Locastro 2022 · MLB	30	46→53	44→45	55→60	46	224/313/342	118	268	11	23	20%	6%	89	+0.9	211/293/336	125	262	12	24	24%	5%	79	+0.3	207/296/319	112	263	11	36	24%	5%	73	-0.1
✕Garrett Stubbs 2023 · MLB	30	48	48→45	53→50	55	239/325/383	144	296	16	11	24%	11%	102	+1.9	225/298/335	110	290	11	12	25%	8%	79	+0.3	217/287/307	90	281	9	11	25%	7%	65	-0.2
✕Chase d'Arnaud 2019 · MLB	32	48→50	47→45	56→60	45	237/298/376	139	300	14	23	25%	7%	89	+1.0	202/266/327	125	291	14	16	34%	7%	63	-0.8	150/219/244	93	230	11	15	38%	6%	20	-2.3
✕Alejandro De Aza 2015 · MLB	31	52→61	45→50	52→55	48	254/317/388	134	311	12	19	22%	8%	99	+1.7	241/311/378	137	300	12	12	23%	8%	95	+1.4	233/306/364	130	289	11	9	22%	8%	84	+0.3
✕David Newhan 2006 · MLB	32	52→62	46→50	56→55	50	256/317/386	130	295	13	17	18%	7%	99	+1.7	250/307/390	140	291	15	16	19%	7%	96	+1.5	256/306/403	147	300	15	16	20%	6%	96	+0.6
✕Cory Sullivan 2011 · MLB	31	51→60	40→45	51→50	50	242/298/337	95	282	6	11	16%	7%	78	+0.2	216/287/312	96	264	8	11	20%	9%	67	-0.5	166/261/200	34	206	0	8	18%	11%	28	-0.7
✕Mitch Maier 2013 · MLB	31	49→56	44→50	52→50	52	237/315/359	121	301	11	9	24%	10%	92	+1.2	233/301/356	123	318	13	9	28%	9%	85	+0.7	275/351/375	100	348	10	11	22%	11%	105	+0.5