Jake Fraley

RF Tampa Bay Rays

Age 32 L/L 5'11" / 206 lbs MLB HR -6%H +4% Svc 6.564 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

MLBExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	29	MLBCIN	382	.277/.332/.386	5	20	101	0.6
2025	30	AAACIN	29	.185/.241/.333	1	1	18	—	.179/.207/.321
2025	30	MLBATL	217	.241/.332/.382	6	4	103	0.1
2026	31	AAATB	52	.182/.308/.318	2	1	37	—	.130/.231/.196
2026	31	MLBTB	97	.216/.289/.364	2	3	86	-0.2
2027PROJ	32	MLBTB	158	.233/.308/.354	3	5	88	0.0
2028PROJ	33	MLBTB	140	.225/.299/.336	3	3	80	-0.6

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.5 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service6.564First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$1M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Speed71

Bat Spd55

xwOBA38

Barrel%21

Avg EV10

CompsJames Adduci (age 32) · Brian Bogusevic (age 33) · Roger Bernadina (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†88

AVG/OBP/SLG.233 / .308 / .354

PA158

HR3

SB5

K%23

BB%9

BABIP288

ISO113

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 50 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT50

xAVG

350.239

POWER40

Barrel%

214.5

Avg EV

1084.5

Bat Spd

5571.9

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED60

Sprint

7128.3

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 637 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

581

—

wRC+

105

▶▶R

wOBA

253

324

▶▶R

ISO

056

136

▶▶R

BABIP

261

316

▶▶R

12.5%

20.7%

◀◀L

BB%

1.8%

9.0%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2019

Service 6.564 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	—	—	—
Totals		$1M		$0.0M	-$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2017	22	A+	Charlotte Stone Crabs	—	105	94	16	3	1	1	7	24	2	1	3	170	243	255	498	85	211	23	7	227	8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	ROK	GCL Rays	—	17	15	7	3	0	1	2	3	0	3	1	467	529	867	1.396	400	545	18	12	591	170	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	INTL	Perth Heat	—	198	169	61	13	1	13	27	26	1	39	5	361	452	680	1.132	320	366	13	14	483	213	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	A+	Charlotte Stone Crabs	—	260	225	78	19	7	4	26	44	4	11	8	347	424	547	970	200	407	17	10	417	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	41	40	6	2	0	0	0	14	1	0	0	150	171	200	371	50	231	34	0	169	1	-5	+0	-0	+2	+1	-0.2
2019	24	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	—	168	152	42	12	3	8	11	34	3	6	2	276	337	553	890	276	304	20	7	381	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA	Arkansas Travelers	—	259	230	72	15	2	11	23	55	5	16	5	313	388	539	927	226	370	21	9	405	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	29	26	4	1	1	0	2	11	1	2	1	154	241	269	511	115	267	38	7	236	47	-2	+0	-1	-0	+1	-0.3
2021	26	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	265	214	45	7	0	9	46	71	2	10	2	210	355	369	724	159	265	27	17	330	110	+3	+1	-1	-3	+6	0.6
2021	26	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	—	51	40	13	1	0	3	9	15	1	3	1	325	460	575	1.035	250	435	29	18	445	139	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	247	216	56	9	0	12	26	54	3	4	1	259	347	468	815	208	289	22	11	358	120	+6	+0	-3	-3	+5	0.6
2022	27	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	48	41	11	0	0	1	7	14	0	1	0	268	375	341	716	73	385	29	15	334	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	380	336	86	18	0	15	37	71	6	21	5	256	340	443	784	188	283	19	10	349	115	+7	+2	-1	-4	+8	1.2
2024	29	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	382	350	97	19	2	5	26	70	3	20	5	277	332	386	718	109	331	18	7	321	101	+1	+2	-1	-4	+8	0.6
2025	30	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	217	191	46	9	0	6	25	49	1	4	3	241	332	382	714	141	294	23	12	324	103	+1	-0	-2	-3	+5	0.1
2025	30	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	29	27	5	1	0	1	2	4	0	1	0	185	241	333	575	148	182	14	7	258	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	97	88	19	7	0	2	9	29	0	3	0	216	289	364	652	148	298	30	9	294	86	-2	+1	-1	-2	+2	-0.2
2026	31	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	52	44	8	0	0	2	5	11	3	1	1	182	308	318	626	136	194	21	10	294	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1658	1461	359	72	3	49	171	369	17	64	17	246	332	400	731	154	295	22	10	328	108	+16	+6	-11	-18	+36	3.0
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2017	22	A+ MLE	Charlotte Stone Crabs	—	105	96	13	3	1	1	5	33	2	1	3	135	194	219	413	83	178	31	5	180	8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	ROK MLE	GCL Rays	—	17	16	5	2	0	1	1	4	0	3	1	312	353	625	978	312	401	24	6	420	170	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	A+ MLE	Charlotte Stone Crabs	—	260	232	67	17	5	4	19	63	4	11	8	289	353	457	810	168	357	24	7	346	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	41	40	6	2	0	0	0	14	1	0	0	150	171	200	371	50	231	34	0	170	1	-5	+0	-0	+2	+1	-0.2
2019	24	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	—	168	156	34	9	2	6	7	44	3	6	2	218	265	417	682	199	257	26	4	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	—	259	238	66	13	2	11	15	65	5	16	5	277	333	487	821	210	337	25	6	355	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	29	26	4	1	1	0	2	11	1	2	1	154	241	269	511	115	267	38	7	238	47	-2	+0	-1	-0	+1	-0.3
2021	26	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	265	215	45	7	0	9	45	71	2	10	2	209	351	367	719	158	265	27	17	331	110	+3	+1	-1	-3	+6	0.6
2021	26	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	—	51	43	12	1	0	2	6	18	1	3	1	279	380	442	822	163	413	35	12	374	139	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	247	217	55	9	0	11	25	54	3	4	1	253	339	447	786	194	289	22	10	346	120	+6	+0	-3	-3	+5	0.6
2022	27	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	48	43	10	0	0	1	5	18	0	1	0	233	312	302	615	70	354	38	10	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	380	338	85	18	0	14	35	71	6	21	5	251	332	429	761	178	283	19	9	338	115	+7	+2	-1	-4	+8	1.2
2024	29	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	382	350	97	19	2	5	26	70	3	20	5	277	332	386	718	109	331	18	7	318	101	+1	+2	-1	-4	+8	0.6
2025	30	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	217	192	46	9	0	6	24	49	1	4	3	240	327	380	707	141	294	23	11	321	103	+1	-0	-2	-3	+5	0.1
2025	30	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	29	28	5	1	0	1	1	5	0	1	0	179	207	321	528	143	153	17	3	195	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	97	88	19	7	0	2	9	29	0	3	0	216	289	364	652	148	298	30	9	295	86	-2	+1	-1	-2	+2	-0.2
2026	31	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	52	46	6	0	0	1	3	13	3	1	1	130	231	196	426	65	170	25	6	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	INTL MLE	3 teams	—	320	298	46	12	2	4	16	99	3	43	9	154	205	248	453	94	212	31	5	213	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	INTL RAW	3 teams	—	320	278	84	19	2	15	36	53	3	43	9	302	388	547	935	245	324	17	11	405	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	A+ MLE	Charlotte Stone Crabs	—	260	232	67	17	5	4	19	63	4	11	8	289	353	457	810	168	371	24	7	346	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	A+ RAW	Charlotte Stone Crabs	—	260	225	78	19	7	4	26	44	4	11	8	347	424	547	970	200	407	17	10	417	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA MLE	3 teams	—	468	434	107	25	4	17	22	123	9	22	7	247	297	440	737	194	303	26	5	318	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA RAW	3 teams	—	468	422	120	29	5	19	34	103	9	22	7	284	351	512	862	227	333	22	7	376	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	29	26	4	1	1	0	2	11	1	2	1	154	241	269	511	115	267	38	7	238	47	-2	+0	-1	-0	+1	-0.3
2020	25	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	—	29	26	4	1	1	0	2	11	1	2	1	154	241	269	511	115	267	38	7	236	47	-2	+0	-1	-0	+1	-0.3
2021	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	316	258	58	8	0	12	51	89	3	13	3	225	359	395	754	171	287	28	16	338	115	+5	+1	-1	-3	+7	1.0
2021	26	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	316	254	58	8	0	12	55	86	3	13	3	228	372	402	773	173	289	27	17	349	115	+5	+1	-1	-3	+7	1.0
2022	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	295	260	65	9	0	12	30	72	3	5	1	250	334	423	758	173	298	24	10	331	110	+4	+1	-3	-3	+6	0.4
2022	27	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	295	257	67	9	0	13	33	68	3	5	1	261	352	447	799	187	303	23	11	354	110	+4	+1	-3	-3	+6	0.4
2023	28	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	380	338	85	18	0	14	35	71	6	21	5	251	332	429	761	178	280	19	9	338	115	+7	+2	-1	-4	+8	1.2
2023	28	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	—	380	336	86	18	0	15	37	71	6	21	5	256	340	443	784	188	283	19	10	349	115	+7	+2	-1	-4	+8	1.2
2024	29	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	382	350	97	19	2	5	26	70	3	20	5	277	332	386	718	109	331	18	7	318	101	+1	+2	-1	-4	+8	0.6
2024	29	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	—	382	350	97	19	2	5	26	70	3	20	5	277	332	386	718	109	331	18	7	321	101	+1	+2	-1	-4	+8	0.6
2025	30	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	246	220	51	10	0	7	25	54	1	5	3	232	313	373	686	141	277	22	10	306	93	-2	-0	-2	-3	+5	-0.1
2025	30	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	246	218	51	10	0	7	27	53	1	5	3	234	321	376	697	142	278	22	11	316	93	-2	-0	-2	-3	+5	-0.1
2026	31	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	149	134	25	7	0	3	12	42	3	4	1	187	268	306	574	119	247	28	8	270	69	-6	+0	-1	-2	+3	-0.5
2026	31	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	149	132	27	7	0	4	14	40	3	4	1	205	295	348	644	144	261	27	9	294	69	-6	+0	-1	-2	+3	-0.5
2017	22	INTL MLE	3 teams	—	320	298	46	12	2	4	16	99	3	43	9	154	205	248	453	94	209	31	5	213	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	A+ MLE	Charlotte Stone Crabs	—	260	235	67	17	5	4	19	63	4	11	8	285	353	451	804	166	357	24	7	346	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA MLE	3 teams	—	468	434	107	25	4	17	22	123	9	22	7	247	297	440	737	194	299	26	5	318	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	29	26	4	1	1	0	2	11	1	2	1	154	241	269	511	115	267	38	7	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	316	259	58	8	0	12	51	89	3	13	3	224	359	394	753	170	289	28	16	338	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	295	260	65	9	0	12	30	72	3	5	1	250	334	423	758	173	300	24	10	331	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	380	336	85	18	0	14	35	71	6	21	5	253	332	432	764	179	283	19	9	338	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	382	350	97	19	2	5	26	70	3	20	5	277	332	386	718	109	331	18	7	318	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	246	218	51	10	0	7	25	54	1	5	3	234	313	376	689	142	277	22	10	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	149	133	25	7	0	3	12	42	3	4	1	188	268	308	577	120	253	28	8	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	29	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	382	350	97	19	2	5	26	70	3	20	5	277	332	386	718	109	331	18	7	318	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	246	218	51	10	0	7	25	54	1	5	3	234	313	376	689	142	277	22	10	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	149	133	25	7	0	3	12	42	3	4	1	188	268	308	577	120	253	28	8	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	32	MLB MLE	TB	100%	255	228	53	11	1	5	22	58	3	8	2	231	306	355	662	124	285	23	9	298	88	-4	+1	+0	-3	+6	0.0
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	32	MLB CTX	TB	100%	158	141	33	7	0	3	14	36	2	5	1	233	308	354	662	121	288	23	9	299	88	-2	+1	+0	-2	+3	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	TB	100%	140	126	28	6	0	3	12	33	1	3	1	223	297	337	634	114	278	24	9	287	80	-3	+0	-4	-2	+3	-0.6
2028	33	MLB CTX	TB	100%	140	126	29	6	0	3	12	33	1	3	1	225	299	336	635	112	281	24	9	287	80	-3	+0	-4	-2	+3	-0.6
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1798	1587	388	78	3	52	183	402	18	67	18	244	329	396	725	151	294	22	10	325	95	+13	+6	-15	-19	+39	2.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	574	140	28	1	19	66	145	7	24	7	244	329	395	725	152	293	22	10	325	95	+5	+2	-5	-7	+14	0.9
Career	—	MLE		—	3143	2817	665	139	14	84	264	763	39	154	45	236	310	385	695	149	292	24	8	309	95	+10	+7	-14	-21	+42	2.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	583	138	29	3	17	55	158	8	32	9	237	312	384	696	148	293	24	8	309	95	+3	+2	-5	-7	+14	0.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAADurham Bulls · 52 PAwOBA .287 → .223 (−63)K% 21.2% → 25.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.15%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	25.38%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.62%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.962	6.38%
HBP% /PA	5.77%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	5.22%
Singles /BIP	18.18%	÷1.000	×0.930	—	×0.962	16.27%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.830	—	×0.962	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	—	×0.962	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.06%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.962	4.08%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .287 → .223; ISO .136 → .091; BABIP .194 → .170. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAALouisville Bats · 29 PAwOBA .251 → .195 (−55)K% 13.8% → 17.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.79%	÷0.975	×1.200	—	—	16.98%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.90%	÷1.002	×0.690	—	×0.972	4.62%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	0.00%
Singles /BIP	13.04%	÷1.049	×0.930	—	×0.972	11.24%
Doubles /BIP	4.35%	÷0.992	×0.830	—	×0.972	3.53%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	—	×0.972	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.35%	÷0.901	×0.700	—	×0.972	3.28%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 110, 2B 98, 3B 80, K 95, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .251 → .195; ISO .148 → .113; BABIP .182 → .153. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAALouisville Bats · 48 PAwOBA .326 → .253 (−72)K% 29.2% → 36.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	29.17%	÷0.958	×1.200	—	—	36.55%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.58%	÷1.023	×0.690	—	×1.003	9.86%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	0.00%
Singles /BIP	37.04%	÷0.996	×0.930	—	×1.003	34.70%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷0.955	×0.830	—	×1.003	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	—	×1.003	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.70%	÷1.282	×0.700	—	×1.003	2.03%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 156, 1B 99, 2B 91, 3B 80, K 92, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .326 → .253; ISO .073 → .038; BABIP .385 → .354. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAATacoma Rainiers · 51 PAwOBA .442 → .374 (−68)K% 29.4% → 35.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	29.41%	÷0.994	×1.200	—	—	35.52%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	17.65%	÷1.045	×0.690	—	×1.018	11.87%
HBP% /PA	1.96%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	1.88%
Singles /BIP	36.00%	÷0.952	×0.930	—	×1.018	35.81%
Doubles /BIP	4.00%	÷0.989	×0.830	—	×1.018	3.42%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.977	×0.920	—	×1.018	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	12.00%	÷0.970	×0.700	—	×1.018	8.82%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 90, 2B 98, 3B 95, K 99, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .442 → .374; ISO .250 → .193; BABIP .435 → .413. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAArkansas Travelers · 259 PAwOBA .393 → .355 (−38)K% 21.2% → 25.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.24%	÷1.031	×1.220	—	—	25.12%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.11%	÷1.010	×0.700	—	×1.012	5.68%
HBP% /PA	1.93%	—	×0.870	—	×1.012	1.70%
Singles /BIP	25.14%	÷0.966	×0.920	×0.950	×1.012	23.01%
Doubles /BIP	8.57%	÷0.916	×0.840	×0.950	×1.012	7.55%
Triples /BIP	1.14%	÷0.922	×0.940	×0.950	×1.012	1.12%
Home runs /BIP	6.29%	÷0.784	×0.800	—	×1.012	6.49%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 57, 1B 93, 2B 83, 3B 84, K 106, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .393 → .355; ISO .226 → .222; BABIP .370 → .337. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAATacoma Rainiers · 168 PAwOBA .373 → .296 (−77)K% 20.2% → 26.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.24%	÷0.990	×1.290	—	—	26.37%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.95%	÷1.039	×0.710	—	×1.048	4.26%
HBP% /PA	1.79%	—	×0.980	—	×1.048	1.83%
Singles /BIP	16.10%	÷0.985	×0.900	×0.950	×1.048	14.65%
Doubles /BIP	10.17%	÷0.998	×0.810	×0.950	×1.048	8.22%
Triples /BIP	2.54%	÷1.073	×0.810	×0.950	×1.048	1.91%
Home runs /BIP	6.78%	÷1.049	×0.780	—	×1.048	5.28%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 97, 2B 100, 3B 115, K 98, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .373 → .296; ISO .276 → .208; BABIP .304 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 A+Charlotte Stone Crabs · 260 PAwOBA .415 → .346 (−69)K% 16.9% → 24.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.92%	÷0.983	×1.420	—	—	24.44%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.00%	÷1.022	×0.750	—	×0.998	7.32%
HBP% /PA	1.54%	—	×0.930	—	×0.998	1.43%
Singles /BIP	26.52%	÷1.031	×0.920	×0.991	×0.998	23.40%
Doubles /BIP	10.50%	÷1.012	×0.960	×0.991	×0.998	9.85%
Triples /BIP	3.87%	÷1.150	×0.810	×0.991	×0.998	2.69%
Home runs /BIP	2.21%	÷0.857	×0.880	—	×0.998	2.26%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 71, 1B 106, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 97, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.991.

Result: wOBA .415 → .346; ISO .200 → .170; BABIP .407 → .357. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 A+Charlotte Stone Crabs · 105 PAwOBA .226 → .180 (−45)K% 22.9% → 31.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.86%	÷1.017	×1.420	—	—	31.92%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.67%	÷0.967	×0.750	—	×1.012	5.23%
HBP% /PA	1.90%	—	×0.930	—	×1.012	1.79%
Singles /BIP	15.71%	÷1.073	×0.920	×0.959	×1.012	13.08%
Doubles /BIP	4.29%	÷1.007	×0.960	×0.959	×1.012	3.96%
Triples /BIP	1.43%	÷1.024	×0.810	×0.959	×1.012	1.10%
Home runs /BIP	1.43%	÷0.917	×0.880	—	×1.012	1.39%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 115, 2B 102, 3B 105, K 103, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.959.

Result: wOBA .226 → .180; ISO .085 → .070; BABIP .211 → .178. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	2.8	1,886	55	69	248	330	401	-20	-18	5.3	5.3
/162	664	19	24	-7.1	-6.4	1.9	pk7: 5
#1Bobby Kieltylast yr '07 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,084 PA	3.1	2,084	53	21	254	348	408	-20	-26	5.0	5.0
/162	664	17	7	-6.4	-8.3	1.6	pk7: 5
#2Jeff DaVanon'99-'07 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,505 PA	2.3	1,505	33	59	249*	340*	389*	-12	+4	4.2	4.5
/162	664	15	26	-5.1	+1.8	1.9	pk7: 5
#3R. J. Reynolds'83-'90 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,506 PA	3.8	2,506	35	109	265*	321*	409*	-22	-16	4.1	4.2
/162	664	9	29	-5.7	-4.3	1.1	pk7: 4
#4Jerry Turner'74-'83 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,931 PA	2.9	1,931	45	45	251*	316*	413*	-22	-11	3.0	3.4
/162	664	15	15	-7.7	-3.7	1.0	pk7: 4
#5Nolan Reimoldlast yr '16 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,556 PA	2.3	1,556	56	18	246	323	422	-17	-27	1.6	1.9
/162	664	24	8	-7.1	-11.6	0.7	pk7: 2
#6Ben Franciscolast yr '13 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,771 PA	2.7	1,771	50	30	253	323	418	-19	-29	1.7	1.7
/162	664	19	11	-7.1	-10.9	0.6	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jake Fraley (OGILVIE)	32	50	40	60	45	229/304/352	123	285	3	5	23%	9%	88	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕James Adduci 2017 · MLB	32	45→55	45	51→60	46	226/287/349	123	287	13	14	25%	8%	80	-0.2	238/280/359	121	318	11	13	27%	6%	79	-0.2	236/272/353	117	312	11	12	27%	5%	73	-0.4
✕Brian Bogusevic 2017 · MLB	33	50→54	45	53→55	43	248/295/367	120	307	13	18	24%	6%	86	+0.3	238/282/377	139	289	16	11	23%	5%	84	+0.2	236/274/376	140	280	16	6	22%	4%	79	-0.1
✕Roger Bernadina 2015 · MLB	31	43→53	42→45	54→60	48	210/293/320	110	281	9	15	27%	9%	76	-0.4	215/286/335	120	308	11	20	32%	8%	76	-0.4	219/285/332	113	308	11	20	31%	7%	73	-0.4
✕Chris Dickerson 2014 · MLB	32	48→56	45→50	56→60	45	233/298/366	133	316	12	22	29%	8%	88	+0.4	238/304/363	125	328	12	19	29%	8%	89	+0.5	224/303/337	113	317	11	19	30%	9%	81	-0.0
✕Anthony Seratelli 2014 · AAA	31	46→47	44→45	57→55	49	228/298/344	117	283	12	22	24%	8%	83	+0.1	225/297/338	113	303	11	16	27%	9%	81	-0.1	212/290/309	98	300	8	14	30%	9%	70	-0.4
✕Jonathan Davis 2024 · MLB	32	46→52	44→45	55	48	224/301/347	123	296	11	21	27%	9%	85	+0.2	217/291/331	114	310	10	14	31%	8%	78	-0.3	188/273/268	80	289	6	14	34%	8%	53	-1.0
✕Nick Buss 2018 · MLB	31	50→57	44→50	52→55	44	243/287/367	124	291	10	12	20%	5%	83	+0.1	227/279/344	117	285	11	12	23%	6%	76	-0.4	186/237/264	78	241	6	11	25%	5%	40	-0.9
✕Tim Locastro 2024 · MLB	32	40→50	45	56→60	40	201/281/322	122	255	12	24	25%	5%	73	-0.6	222/301/340	118	272	11	29	22%	6%	84	+0.2	219/299/327	108	266	9	38	20%	5%	78	-0.1
✕Mark Payton 2024 · MLB	32	46→51	46→55	50	48	228/285/361	133	262	12	13	19%	7%	82	-0.0	238/291/355	117	292	10	9	21%	7%	82	+0.0	243/295/350	107	298	8	5	20%	7%	80	-0.1
✕Don Kelly 2011 · MLB	31	51→59	45	55	47	251/294/370	119	278	13	15	15%	5%	87	+0.4	231/291/352	121	255	14	10	15%	7%	82	-0.0	218/289/328	110	237	12	8	14%	8%	76	-0.2
✕David Newhan 2006 · MLB	32	52→62	45→50	56→55	49	255/314/384	129	293	13	17	18%	7%	98	+1.2	245/300/382	137	285	14	16	19%	7%	92	+0.7	247/295/388	141	289	15	16	20%	6%	91	+0.3
✕Jason Pridie 2015 · AAA	31	45→55	45→50	55	42	225/269/346	121	280	13	19	25%	6%	72	-0.7	237/286/384	147	290	17	19	24%	6%	87	+0.4	243/292/403	159	292	20	19	24%	6%	93	+0.8
✕Kristopher Negrón 2018 · MLB	32	44→49	44→45	55	40	216/270/334	117	283	11	17	27%	5%	70	-0.9	221/280/345	124	318	14	14	33%	6%	76	-0.4	215/277/333	118	317	14	14	35%	7%	70	-0.6
✕Sam Fuld 2014 · MLB	32	46→56	40→45	56→60	54	217/287/310	93	246	7	23	15%	9%	71	-0.8	222/296/329	107	258	8	21	16%	9%	78	-0.3	219/296/322	103	256	6	24	16%	10%	77	-0.2
✕Juan Lagares 2021 · MLB	32	47→57	45	50	45	233/289/356	123	294	12	11	25%	7%	82	-0.0	231/272/360	129	288	11	6	23%	5%	76	-0.4	235/265/370	135	292	11	2	23%	4%	77	-0.2
✕Ryan LaMarre 2022 · MLB	33	47→52	46→45	53→60	42	228/295/358	130	318	13	23	31%	7%	86	+0.3	220/297/342	122	308	12	21	31%	7%	82	+0.0	200/284/303	103	284	11	24	31%	7%	66	-0.3
✕Will Venable 2016 · MLB	33	49→55	46→55	55→60	47	240/300/368	128	299	13	20	24%	7%	88	+0.5	215/275/324	109	273	11	12	24%	7%	70	-0.9	181/234/264	83	231	8	8	25%	5%	39	-1.8
✕Adrian Brown 2006 · MLB	32	49	41→45	58→55	52	232/295/335	103	264	7	24	15%	8%	79	-0.2	233/292/330	97	278	8	23	18%	8%	77	-0.3	236/290/286	49	288	3	34	18%	7%	64	-0.4
✕Jose Espinoza 2006 · AAA	32	53	42→40	49→45	48	256/311/363	107	307	10	9	20%	7%	92	+0.7	257/320/360	103	299	8	7	16%	8%	95	+0.9	258/316/347	89	304	7	6	16%	7%	86	+0.2
✕Jeff Salazar 2012 · MLB	31	40→50	45→50	57→55	48	206/270/319	114	248	14	27	23%	8%	67	-1.1	206/265/318	112	261	12	16	25%	7%	65	-1.2	172/220/251	79	214	10	9	24%	5%	29	-1.5

Jake Fraley

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps