Jake Fraley — OGILVIE

Jake FraleyRF Tampa Bay Rays

Age 31 L/L 5'11" / 206 lbs MLB Svc 5.564 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 0.4 · 2026

wRC+†vL 5096vR 104

AVG/OBP/SLG.244 / .315 / .380

PA342

HR8

SB14

K%20

BB%8

MLB%100%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

50→50

PWR

40→40

SPD

60→60

EYE

51↘45

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.6peak

2026

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2019

Service 5.564 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-3	$3M	+0.4	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$0.0M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2017	22	INTL	3 teams	320	298	47	12	2	4	16	100	3	43	9	.158	.208	.252	.460	.094	.218	31	5	.214	22	-28	+5	+0	-3	+9	-1.8
2018	23	A+	Charlotte Stone Crabs	260	232	66	17	4	4	19	64	4	11	8	.284	.349	.444	.793	.159	.367	25	7	.341	119	+6	-1	+0	-3	+7	0.9
2019	24	AA	3 teams	468	435	105	24	4	18	21	128	9	22	7	.241	.290	.439	.729	.198	.298	27	4	.313	98	-1	+2	-0	+2	+13	1.6
2020	25	MLB	Seattle Mariners	29	26	4	1	1	0	2	11	1	2	1	.154	.241	.269	.511	.115	.267	38	7	.248	48	-2	+0	-1	-0	+1	-0.2
2021	26	MLB	2 teams	316	257	58	8	0	12	52	90	3	13	3	.226	.362	.397	.759	.171	.291	28	16	.334	113	+5	+1	-1	-3	+9	1.1
2022	27	MLB	2 teams	295	259	65	8	0	12	31	71	3	5	1	.251	.338	.421	.759	.170	.298	24	11	.326	107	+2	+1	-3	-3	+8	0.5
2023	28	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	380	336	84	18	0	13	37	71	6	21	5	.250	.335	.420	.755	.170	.281	19	10	.326	107	+3	+2	-1	-4	+11	1.1
2024	29	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	382	350	96	19	3	4	26	70	3	20	5	.274	.330	.380	.710	.106	.330	18	7	.314	99	-1	+2	-1	-4	+11	0.7
2025	30	MLB	2 teams	246	219	50	10	0	7	26	54	1	5	3	.228	.313	.370	.683	.142	.272	22	11	.308	94	-2	-0	-2	-3	+7	0.1
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	31	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	53	48	11	4	0	1	5	13	0	2	0	.229	.302	.375	.677	.146	.294	25	9	.301	89	-1	+0	-1	-1	+2	-0.1
ROS	31	MLB	TB	289	260	63	13	1	7	25	58	2	12	2	.242	.314	.381	.694	.138	.286	20	9	.312	97	-1	+2	-1	-3	+8	0.4
TOT	31	MLB	TB	342	308	74	17	1	8	30	71	2	14	2	.240	.312	.380	.692	.140	.287	21	9	.310	96	-2	+2	-3	-4	+10	0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	32	MLB	TB	323	289	70	15	1	7	28	57	3	12	2	.242	.316	.374	.689	.131	.273	18	9	.307	93	-2	+2	-5	-3	+9	-0.0
2028	33	MLB	TB	293	264	62	13	1	6	25	54	2	10	2	.235	.306	.360	.666	.125	.272	18	9	.302	89	-4	+1	-6	-3	+8	-0.3
2029	34	MLB	TB	250	225	52	11	1	5	21	48	2	8	1	.231	.302	.356	.658	.124	.270	19	8	.295	84	-5	+1	-6	-3	+7	-0.5
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			3851	3450	822	169	18	99	329	876	42	184	49	.238	.312	.384	.696	.146	.289	23	9	.307	93	-29	+17	-27	-35	+109	3.7
/ 162G	—			650	582	139	29	3	17	56	148	7	31	8	.239	.313	.387	.700	.148	.290	23	9	.307	93	-5	+3	-5	-6	+18	0.6

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2017	22	A+	Charlotte Stone Crabs	105	94	16	3	1	1	7	24	2	1	3	.170	.243	.255	.498	.085	.211	23	7	.227	32	-8	-1	—	—	+3	-0.6
2017	22	ROK	GCL Rays	17	15	7	3	0	1	2	3	0	3	1	.467	.529	.867	1.396	.400	.545	18	12	.591	310	+4	+0	—	—	+0	0.5
2017	22	INTL	Perth Heat	198	169	61	13	1	13	27	26	1	39	5	.361	.452	.680	1.132	.320	.366	13	14	.483	228	+29	+6	—	—	+6	4.1
2018	23	A+	Charlotte Stone Crabs	260	225	78	19	7	4	26	44	4	11	8	.347	.424	.547	.970	.200	.407	17	10	.417	178	+23	-1	—	—	+7	3.0
2019	24	MLB	Seattle Mariners	41	40	6	2	0	0	0	14	1	0	0	.150	.171	.200	.371	.050	.231	34	0	.169	-13	-5	+0	-0	+2	+1	-0.2
2019	24	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	168	152	42	12	3	8	11	34	3	6	2	.276	.337	.553	.890	.276	.304	20	7	.381	150	+9	+0	—	—	+5	1.5
2019	24	AA	Arkansas Travelers	259	230	72	15	2	11	23	55	5	16	5	.313	.388	.539	.927	.226	.370	21	9	.405	168	+20	+1	—	—	+7	2.9
2020	25	MLB	Seattle Mariners	29	26	4	1	1	0	2	11	1	2	1	.154	.241	.269	.511	.115	.267	38	7	.236	39	-2	+0	-1	-0	+1	-0.3
2021	26	MLB	Seattle Mariners	265	214	45	7	0	9	46	71	2	10	2	.210	.355	.369	.724	.159	.265	27	17	.330	111	+3	+1	-1	-3	+8	0.8
2021	26	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	51	40	13	1	0	3	9	15	1	3	1	.325	.460	.575	1.035	.250	.435	29	18	.445	199	+6	+0	—	—	+1	0.7
2022	27	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	247	216	56	9	0	12	26	54	3	4	1	.259	.347	.468	.815	.208	.289	22	11	.358	132	+9	+0	-3	-3	+7	1.0
2022	27	AAA	Louisville Bats	48	41	11	0	0	1	7	14	0	1	0	.268	.375	.341	.716	.073	.385	29	15	.334	113	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
2023	28	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	380	336	86	18	0	15	37	71	6	21	5	.256	.340	.443	.784	.188	.283	19	10	.349	125	+11	+2	-1	-4	+11	1.9
2024	29	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	382	350	97	19	2	5	26	70	3	20	5	.277	.332	.386	.718	.109	.331	18	7	.321	104	+2	+2	-1	-4	+11	1.0
2025	30	MLB	Atlanta Braves	217	191	46	9	0	6	25	49	1	4	3	.241	.332	.382	.714	.141	.294	23	12	.324	106	+1	-0	-2	-3	+6	0.3
2025	30	AAA	Louisville Bats	29	27	5	1	0	1	2	4	0	1	0	.185	.241	.333	.575	.148	.182	14	7	.258	55	-1	+0	—	—	+1	-0.0
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			1561	1373	340	65	3	47	162	340	17	61	17	.248	.334	.402	.736	.154	.295	22	10	.330	111	+19	+5	-9	-16	+44	4.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jake Fraley (OGILVIE)	31	50	40	60	45	.242/.313/.379	.137	.275	8	14	17%	9%	97	+0.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Tim Locastro 2022 · MLB	30	47→52	45	56→60	46	.231/.321/.355	.124	.275	11	25	20%	6%	95	+1.4	.213/.294/.340	.127	.263	12	24	23%	5%	80	+0.4	.211/.301/.325	.114	.266	11	36	23%	5%	76	+0.0
✕Brian Bogusevic 2014 · MLB	30	50→55	45	57→55	50	.244/.318/.375	.131	.307	12	21	24%	9%	97	+1.5	.250/.309/.376	.126	.315	13	17	23%	7%	93	+1.3	.255/.303/.381	.126	.315	14	15	23%	6%	89	+0.6
✕Roger Bernadina 2014 · MLB	30	47→57	45	55→60	47	.231/.299/.356	.124	.286	12	23	23%	8%	85	+0.7	.215/.294/.333	.118	.303	11	18	30%	9%	76	+0.1	.228/.296/.347	.119	.323	12	20	31%	8%	78	+0.1
✕Jace Peterson 2021 · MLB	31	48→57	47→50	55	53	.236/.314/.383	.147	.285	14	19	22%	10%	98	+1.6	.235/.321/.376	.141	.299	15	18	24%	11%	98	+1.6	.224/.316/.346	.123	.287	12	20	25%	11%	82	+0.3
✕Justin Christian 2011 · MLB	31	53→57	43→45	60→65	47	.255/.300/.370	.115	.289	9	27	15%	6%	87	+0.8	.254/.306/.370	.116	.285	9	28	14%	6%	90	+1.0	.252/.305/.357	.105	.281	8	29	13%	6%	83	+0.4
✕Don Kelly 2011 · MLB	31	51→59	44→45	55	47	.248/.292/.367	.119	.274	12	15	15%	5%	83	+0.6	.230/.287/.346	.116	.254	14	11	15%	7%	76	+0.1	.213/.285/.315	.102	.231	12	8	14%	9%	65	-0.3
●Norichika Aoki 2013 · MLB	31	56→62	44→45	55	54	.269/.337/.399	.130	.286	10	26	10%	8%	111	+2.5	.281/.347/.376	.095	.298	7	20	8%	8%	108	+2.3	.284/.351/.363	.079	.301	5	19	7%	8%	103	+1.8
✕Will Venable 2014 · MLB	31	51→56	52→55	61→60	47	.256/.313/.434	.178	.304	18	27	22%	7%	110	+2.4	.235/.296/.363	.128	.294	13	19	23%	8%	85	+0.7	.216/.282/.309	.093	.277	9	16	24%	8%	60	-0.7
✕Sam Fuld 2013 · MLB	31	50→57	40→45	57→60	55	.236/.305/.342	.106	.267	6	25	14%	9%	82	+0.5	.225/.297/.323	.098	.261	7	24	16%	9%	74	-0.1	.213/.292/.305	.092	.248	6	24	16%	10%	64	-0.4
✕Reggie Taylor 2008 · MLB	31	51→58	49→50	52→55	47	.256/.308/.405	.149	.294	17	24	20%	6%	101	+1.8	.248/.293/.396	.148	.290	17	18	20%	6%	92	+1.2	.233/.270/.371	.137	.276	14	12	21%	5%	75	+0.0
✕Ezequiel Carrera 2017 · MLB	30	52→62	42→45	53→60	48	.251/.310/.351	.100	.305	9	24	20%	7%	87	+0.8	.240/.303/.349	.109	.304	12	18	24%	8%	84	+0.6	.244/.306/.344	.100	.310	11	24	24%	8%	81	+0.2
●Brett Gardner 2015 · MLB	31	52→59	46→55	57→65	51	.254/.325/.400	.147	.308	12	20	21%	9%	106	+2.2	.255/.336/.387	.132	.307	12	18	19%	10%	108	+2.3	.248/.332/.422	.175	.280	19	16	18%	10%	111	+2.5
✕Anthony Seratelli 2014 · AAA	31	47→48	45	57→55	49	.231/.301/.349	.118	.288	13	22	24%	8%	83	+0.6	.229/.301/.344	.115	.306	11	17	27%	9%	82	+0.5	.221/.303/.322	.101	.312	8	14	29%	10%	75	-0.0
✕Leonys Martin 2019 · MLB	31	48→55	48→50	54→60	44	.242/.297/.386	.144	.302	16	22	25%	7%	91	+1.1	.227/.294/.380	.153	.288	18	13	27%	8%	89	+0.9	.195/.271/.338	.143	.246	21	9	30%	8%	68	-0.2
✕Wynton Bernard 2023 · MLB	32	48→58	47→45	60	43	.241/.287/.383	.142	.290	14	29	22%	6%	85	+0.7	.241/.289/.358	.117	.302	11	33	23%	6%	80	+0.4	.237/.288/.336	.099	.302	8	39	23%	6%	70	-0.2
✕Jeff Salazar 2010 · MLB	29	48→51	45→50	57→55	50	.235/.300/.365	.130	.275	12	17	19%	8%	87	+0.8	.211/.271/.325	.114	.256	13	23	22%	7%	64	-0.8	.195/.259/.298	.103	.237	13	25	23%	8%	50	-1.0
✕David Newhan 2006 · MLB	32	53→63	46→50	56→55	50	.259/.319/.390	.131	.299	13	17	18%	7%	101	+1.8	.251/.308/.390	.139	.292	14	16	19%	7%	96	+1.5	.256/.306/.403	.147	.301	15	16	20%	6%	96	+0.6
●Cameron Maybin 2018 · MLB	31	53→59	44→50	57→55	54	.255/.329/.380	.125	.304	11	28	19%	10%	102	+1.9	.255/.333/.389	.134	.321	12	21	22%	10%	107	+2.2	.260/.339/.395	.134	.335	12	16	24%	10%	107	+1.0
✕Chris Singleton 2003 · MLB	30	53→59	45→50	54→55	46	.261/.301/.397	.136	.293	11	20	16%	5%	95	+1.4	.248/.301/.367	.119	.292	8	15	17%	7%	87	+0.8	.239/.299/.331	.092	.287	2	12	16%	8%	69	-0.2
✕Andy Fox 2003 · MLB	32	50→53	41→40	57→60	54	.239/.325/.339	.100	.287	8	26	19%	10%	91	+1.1	.219/.297/.318	.099	.277	8	18	22%	8%	74	-0.1	.193/.267/.257	.064	.262	0	5	24%	6%	44	-0.4

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)