Tim Locastro

LF El Paso Chihuahuas

Age 35 R/R 6'1" / 200 lbs AAA HR +5% Svc 8.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

AAAExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2023	31	AAA/ANYM	83	.171/.280/.300	2	1	26	—	.139/.244/.223
2023	31	MLBNYM	67	.232/.338/.393	2	6	110	0.2
2024	32	AAASD	120	.333/.453/.479	2	8	102	—	.260/.368/.350
2025	33	AAASD	414	.270/.370/.433	9	32	71	—	.217/.298/.329
2026	34	No MLB games played
2027PROJ10% MLB	35	MLBSD	22	.224/.294/.349	0	1	85	0.0
2028PROJMLE	36	MLBSD	2	.212/.281/.323	0	0	74	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.2 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service8.000First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$1M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2021-2023

Speed90

xwOBA30

Bat Spd22

Barrel%14

Avg EV10

CompsVinny Rottino (age 35) · Willy Taveras (age 35) · Ryan LaMarre (age 34)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†85

AVG/OBP/SLG.224 / .294 / .349

PA22

HR0

K%23

BB%5

BABIP272

ISO50

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 55 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2021-2023

CONTACT55

xAVG

100.219

POWER50

Barrel%

143.5

Avg EV

1083.2

Bat Spd

2268.3

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED60

Sprint

9029.2

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2019

Service 8.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	—	—	—
Totals		$1M		$-0.0M	-$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2013	21	ROK	Bluefield Blue Jays	—	162	138	39	5	3	1	13	12	6	12	2	283	369	384	753	101	302	7	8	333	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	A+	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	—	184	156	35	9	2	1	14	30	11	11	5	224	331	327	658	103	268	16	8	302	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	A	Lansing Lugnuts	—	289	242	75	10	1	5	21	25	21	30	11	310	412	421	833	112	327	9	7	375	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AA	Tulsa Drillers	—	207	191	53	8	1	1	8	16	7	9	2	277	330	346	676	68	299	8	4	307	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	A+	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	—	380	339	98	17	5	5	15	50	18	15	4	289	352	413	765	124	321	13	4	338	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	INTL	Glendale Desert Dogs	—	38	33	10	0	0	0	1	7	2	2	1	303	361	303	664		370	18	3	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	AAA	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	115	103	40	10	0	2	6	12	5	12	2	388	447	544	991	155	422	10	5	437	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	AA	Tulsa Drillers	—	420	368	105	21	4	8	22	56	26	22	5	285	367	429	796	144	317	13	5	356	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	AAA	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	356	301	84	23	2	4	28	52	26	18	2	279	389	409	797	130	327	15	8	364	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	ROK	AZL Dodgers	—	23	17	7	0	1	0	3	0	2	1	1	412	545	529	1.075	118	389	0	13	461	138	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	250	212	53	12	2	1	14	44	22	17	0	250	359	340	698	90	310	18	6	324	99	-0	+3	+0	-4	+5	0.5
2019	27	AAA	Reno Aces	—	143	123	37	11	2	8	10	24	9	9	1	301	394	618	1.012	317	319	17	7	434	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	28	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	82	69	20	4	1	2	8	14	4	4	0	290	395	464	859	174	340	17	10	380	138	+4	+1	+1	+0	+2	0.8
2021	29	MLB	New York Yankees	—	156	139	25	4	0	2	7	33	9	5	3	180	265	252	516	72	219	21	4	244	50	-9	-0	+0	+1	+3	-0.6
2022	30	MLB	New York Yankees	—	46	43	8	1	0	2	2	7	1	8	2	186	239	349	588	163	176	15	4	263	61	-2	+1	-1	-3	+1	-0.4
2022	30	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	191	167	40	13	2	3	12	38	11	7	1	240	330	395	725	156	294	20	6	327	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	31	MLB	New York Mets	—	67	56	13	3	0	2	3	22	6	6	0	232	338	393	731	161	344	33	4	325	110	+1	+1	+0	-2	+1	0.2
2023	31	AAA	Syracuse Mets	—	66	55	11	0	1	2	4	13	5	0	1	200	308	345	653	145	225	20	6	295	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	31	A	St. Lucie Mets	—	17	15	1	1	0	0	0	5	2	1	0	67	176	133	310	67	100	29	0	162	-39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	32	AAA	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	120	96	32	8	0	2	11	18	10	8	2	333	453	479	932	146	390	15	9	411	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	33	AAA	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	414	344	93	21	4	9	36	67	19	32	5	270	370	433	803	163	309	16	9	349	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	601	519	119	24	3	9	34	120	42	40	5	229	328	339	667	110	281	20	6	306	93	-5	+6	+2	-8	+13	0.9
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2013	21	ROK MLE	Bluefield Blue Jays	—	162	143	34	4	2	1	8	17	6	12	2	238	306	315	620	77	252	10	5	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	A+ MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	—	184	160	27	6	1	1	10	41	11	11	5	169	265	237	503	69	212	22	5	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	A MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	—	289	249	65	7	1	4	14	35	21	30	11	261	352	345	697	84	277	12	5	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	—	207	193	48	7	1	1	6	20	7	9	2	249	296	311	607	62	267	10	3	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	A+ MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	—	380	344	80	14	3	5	10	68	18	15	4	233	290	334	625	102	262	18	3	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	115	105	35	8	0	2	4	16	5	12	2	333	386	467	853	133	365	14	3	363	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	—	420	377	89	17	3	5	14	71	26	22	5	236	309	337	646	101	273	17	3	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	356	309	72	18	2	3	20	69	26	18	2	233	332	333	666	100	286	19	6	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	ROK MLE	AZL Dodgers	—	23	18	6	0	1	0	2	0	2	1	1	333	455	444	899	111	297	0	9	372	138	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	250	212	52	11	2	1	14	44	22	17	0	245	355	330	685	85	310	18	6	315	99	-0	+3	+0	-4	+5	0.5
2019	27	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	143	126	28	8	1	6	7	32	9	9	1	222	310	444	754	222	245	22	5	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	28	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	82	69	20	4	1	2	8	14	4	4	0	290	395	464	859	174	340	17	10	372	138	+4	+1	+1	+0	+2	0.8
2021	29	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	156	139	25	4	0	2	7	33	9	5	3	180	265	252	516	72	219	21	4	242	50	-9	-0	+0	+1	+3	-0.6
2022	30	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	46	43	8	1	0	2	2	7	1	8	2	186	239	349	588	163	176	15	4	258	61	-2	+1	-1	-3	+1	-0.4
2022	30	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	191	172	32	10	2	2	8	45	11	7	1	186	267	302	569	116	240	24	4	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	31	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	67	56	13	3	0	2	3	22	6	6	0	232	338	393	731	161	344	33	4	331	110	+1	+1	+0	-2	+1	0.2
2023	31	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	—	66	57	9	0	1	1	3	16	5	0	1	158	262	246	507	88	191	24	5	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	31	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	—	17	15	1	1	0	0	0	7	2	1	0	67	176	133	310	67	79	41	0	111	-39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	32	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	120	100	26	6	0	1	7	22	10	8	2	260	368	350	718	90	306	18	6	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	33	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	414	359	78	16	3	6	22	83	19	32	5	217	297	329	626	111	249	20	5	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	21	ROK MLE	Bluefield Blue Jays	—	162	143	34	4	2	1	8	17	6	12	2	238	306	315	620	77	262	10	5	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	21	ROK RAW	Bluefield Blue Jays	—	162	138	39	5	3	1	13	12	6	12	2	283	369	384	753	101	302	7	8	333	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	473	409	92	13	2	5	24	77	32	41	16	225	318	303	621	78	263	16	5	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	A RAW	2 teams	—	473	398	110	19	3	6	35	55	32	41	16	276	381	384	765	108	305	12	7	346	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	625	570	135	22	4	6	17	94	27	26	7	237	292	321	613	84	270	15	3	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	625	563	161	25	6	6	24	73	27	26	7	286	345	384	729	98	316	12	4	325	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	AA MLE	2 teams	—	535	482	124	25	3	7	18	87	31	34	7	257	326	365	691	108	299	16	3	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	AA RAW	2 teams	—	535	471	145	31	4	10	28	68	31	34	7	308	384	454	839	146	341	13	5	374	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	379	327	77	18	2	3	22	69	28	19	3	235	337	330	667	95	289	18	6	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	379	318	91	23	3	4	31	52	28	19	3	286	398	415	813	129	331	14	8	370	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	393	338	80	19	3	7	21	76	31	26	1	237	338	373	711	136	285	19	5	316	100	+0	+5	+0	-4	+9	1.0
2019	27	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	393	335	90	23	4	9	24	68	31	26	1	269	372	442	814	173	313	17	6	364	100	+0	+5	+0	-4	+9	1.0
2020	28	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	82	69	20	4	1	2	8	14	4	4	0	290	395	464	859	174	340	17	10	372	138	+4	+1	+1	+0	+2	0.8
2020	28	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	82	69	20	4	1	2	8	14	4	4	0	290	395	464	859	174	340	17	10	380	138	+4	+1	+1	+0	+2	0.8
2021	29	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	156	139	25	4	0	2	7	33	9	5	3	180	265	252	516	72	219	21	4	242	50	-9	-0	+0	+1	+3	-0.6
2021	29	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	—	156	139	25	4	0	2	7	33	9	5	3	180	265	252	516	72	219	21	4	244	50	-9	-0	+0	+1	+3	-0.6
2022	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	237	215	40	11	2	4	10	52	12	15	3	186	262	312	573	126	226	22	4	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	30	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	237	210	48	14	2	5	14	45	12	15	3	229	312	386	698	157	269	19	6	315	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	31	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	150	128	23	4	1	3	6	45	13	7	1	180	286	297	583	117	250	30	4	263	64	-6	+1	+0	-2	+3	-0.4
2023	31	MLB RAW	3 teams	—	150	126	25	4	1	4	7	40	13	7	1	198	306	341	647	143	256	27	5	293	64	-6	+1	+0	-2	+3	-0.4
2024	32	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	120	100	26	6	0	1	7	22	10	8	2	260	368	350	718	90	321	18	6	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	32	AAA RAW	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	120	96	32	8	0	2	11	18	10	8	2	333	453	479	932	146	390	15	9	411	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	33	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	414	359	78	16	3	6	22	83	19	32	5	217	297	329	626	111	263	20	5	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	33	AAA RAW	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	414	344	93	21	4	9	36	67	19	32	5	270	370	433	803	163	309	16	9	349	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	21	ROK MLE	Bluefield Blue Jays	—	162	147	34	4	2	1	8	17	6	12	2	231	306	306	612	75	252	10	5	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	473	414	92	13	2	5	24	77	32	41	16	222	318	300	618	77	252	16	5	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	625	576	135	22	4	6	17	94	27	26	7	234	292	318	609	83	264	15	3	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	AA MLE	2 teams	—	535	481	124	25	3	7	18	87	31	34	7	258	326	366	692	108	293	16	3	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	379	326	77	18	2	3	22	69	28	19	3	236	337	331	668	95	287	18	6	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	393	338	80	19	3	7	21	76	31	26	1	237	338	373	711	136	286	19	5	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	28	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	82	70	20	4	1	2	8	14	4	4	0	286	395	457	852	171	340	17	10	372	138	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	29	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	156	139	25	4	0	2	7	33	9	5	3	180	265	252	516	72	219	21	4	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	237	213	40	11	2	4	10	52	12	15	3	188	262	315	576	127	228	22	4	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	31	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	150	130	23	4	1	3	6	45	13	7	1	177	286	292	578	115	247	30	4	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	32	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	120	102	26	6	0	1	7	22	10	8	2	255	368	343	711	88	306	18	6	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	33	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	414	370	78	16	3	6	22	83	19	32	5	211	297	319	616	108	249	20	5	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	32	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	120	102	26	6	0	1	7	22	10	8	2	255	368	343	711	88	306	18	6	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	33	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	414	370	78	16	3	6	22	83	19	32	5	211	297	319	616	108	249	20	5	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	35	MLB MLE	SD	10%	333	300	69	14	2	7	21	74	9	12	2	228	298	354	652	126	277	22	6	294	85	-6	+2	+0	-4	+7	-0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	35	MLB CTX	SD	10%	22	20	4	1	0	0	1	5	1	1	0	224	294	349	643	125	272	23	5	290	85	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	36	MLB MLE	SD	1%	162	147	32	6	1	3	10	37	4	3	1	215	284	328	612	112	266	23	6	277	74	-5	+0	-6	-2	+4	-0.9
2028	36	MLB CTX	SD	1%	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	212	281	323	604	111	261	0	0	274	74	-0	+0	-0	-0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	603	521	119	24	3	9	34	120	42	40	5	228	327	338	664	109	279	20	6	306	78	-5	+6	+2	-8	+13	0.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	562	128	26	3	10	37	129	45	43	5	228	326	338	664	110	278	20	6	306	78	-5	+6	+2	-8	+14	0.9
Career	—	MLE		—	4110	3626	832	161	25	55	194	755	232	240	53	229	310	333	644	104	273	18	5	284	78	-14	+7	-4	-12	+21	-0.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	573	131	25	4	9	31	119	37	38	8	229	310	333	644	105	272	18	5	284	78	-9	+5	-3	-8	+14	-0.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 414 PAwOBA .343 → .273 (−70)K% 16.2% → 20.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.18%	÷0.973	×1.200	—	—	19.96%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.45%	÷1.054	×0.690	—	×0.942	5.22%
HBP% /PA	4.59%	—	×0.940	—	×0.942	4.06%
Singles /BIP	21.30%	÷0.999	×0.930	×0.970	×0.942	18.12%
Doubles /BIP	7.58%	÷1.042	×0.830	×0.970	×0.942	5.52%
Triples /BIP	1.44%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.970	×0.942	1.11%
Home runs /BIP	3.25%	÷0.981	×0.700	—	×0.942	2.18%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 100, 2B 108, 3B 130, K 95, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 27.2 → −5.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.970.

Result: wOBA .343 → .273; ISO .163 → .122; BABIP .309 → .249. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 120 PAwOBA .405 → .319 (−86)K% 15.0% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.00%	÷0.961	×1.200	—	—	18.74%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.17%	÷1.026	×0.690	—	×0.952	5.87%
HBP% /PA	8.33%	—	×0.940	—	×0.952	7.46%
Singles /BIP	28.21%	÷1.025	×0.930	×0.950	×0.952	23.15%
Doubles /BIP	10.26%	÷1.053	×0.830	×0.950	×0.952	7.31%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.996	×0.970	×0.950	×0.952	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.56%	÷1.078	×0.700	—	×0.952	1.59%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 105, 2B 111, 3B 99, K 92, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .405 → .319; ISO .146 → .102; BABIP .390 → .306. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAASyracuse Mets · 66 PAwOBA .288 → .232 (−55)K% 19.7% → 24.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.70%	÷0.961	×1.200	—	—	24.61%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.06%	÷0.967	×0.690	—	×0.962	4.16%
HBP% /PA	7.58%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	6.85%
Singles /BIP	19.05%	÷0.997	×0.930	×0.972	×0.962	16.60%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷0.933	×0.830	×0.972	×0.962	0.00%
Triples /BIP	2.38%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.972	×0.962	1.88%
Home runs /BIP	4.76%	÷1.003	×0.700	—	×0.962	3.20%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 99, 2B 87, 3B 130, K 92, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.972.

Result: wOBA .288 → .232; ISO .145 → .103; BABIP .225 → .191. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ASt. Lucie Mets · 17 PAwOBA .158 → .111 (−48)K% 29.4% → 42.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	29.41%	÷0.947	×1.360	—	—	42.25%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	0.00%	÷0.977	×0.690	—	×0.940	0.00%
HBP% /PA	11.76%	—	×0.780	—	×0.940	8.63%
Singles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.054	×0.920	—	×0.940	0.00%
Doubles /BIP	10.00%	÷0.987	×0.830	—	×0.940	7.90%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.910	—	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.274	×0.800	—	×0.940	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 155, 1B 111, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 89, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 22.0 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (9.0 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .158 → .111; ISO .067 → .044; BABIP .100 → .079. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 191 PAwOBA .319 → .251 (−68)K% 19.9% → 23.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.90%	÷1.001	×1.200	—	—	23.84%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.28%	÷1.066	×0.690	—	×0.972	3.95%
HBP% /PA	5.76%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	5.26%
Singles /BIP	17.05%	÷1.047	×0.930	×0.967	×0.972	14.24%
Doubles /BIP	10.08%	÷0.988	×0.830	×0.967	×0.972	7.95%
Triples /BIP	1.55%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.967	×0.972	1.41%
Home runs /BIP	2.33%	÷1.006	×0.700	—	×0.972	1.57%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 109, 2B 98, 3B 100, K 100, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.967.

Result: wOBA .319 → .251; ISO .156 → .119; BABIP .294 → .240. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAReno Aces · 143 PAwOBA .422 → .319 (−103)K% 16.8% → 22.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.78%	÷0.970	×1.290	—	—	22.33%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.99%	÷0.986	×0.710	—	×1.003	5.05%
HBP% /PA	6.29%	—	×0.980	—	×1.003	6.19%
Singles /BIP	16.16%	÷1.035	×0.900	×0.950	×1.003	13.39%
Doubles /BIP	11.11%	÷1.025	×0.810	×0.950	×1.003	8.36%
Triples /BIP	2.02%	÷1.150	×0.810	×0.950	×1.003	1.36%
Home runs /BIP	8.08%	÷1.077	×0.780	—	×1.003	5.87%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 107, 2B 105, 3B 130, K 94, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .422 → .319; ISO .317 → .222; BABIP .319 → .245. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAAOklahoma City Dodgers · 356 PAwOBA .355 → .298 (−57)K% 14.6% → 19.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.61%	÷0.970	×1.290	—	—	19.44%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.87%	÷1.021	×0.710	—	×1.018	5.57%
HBP% /PA	7.30%	—	×0.980	—	×1.018	7.29%
Singles /BIP	22.09%	÷0.992	×0.900	×0.994	×1.018	20.27%
Doubles /BIP	9.24%	÷1.029	×0.810	×0.994	×1.018	7.36%
Triples /BIP	0.80%	÷1.020	×0.810	×0.994	×1.018	0.65%
Home runs /BIP	1.61%	÷1.020	×0.780	—	×1.018	1.25%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 98, 2B 106, 3B 104, K 94, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.

Result: wOBA .355 → .298; ISO .130 → .099; BABIP .327 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 ROKAZL Dodgers · 23 PAwOBA .471 → .372 (−99)K% 0.0% → 0.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	0.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.04%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×0.940	7.60%
HBP% /PA	8.70%	—	×0.720	—	×0.940	5.89%
Singles /BIP	35.29%	÷1.000	×0.820	—	×0.940	27.20%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.940	0.00%
Triples /BIP	5.88%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.940	3.98%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×0.940	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 19.5 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .471 → .372; ISO .118 → .093; BABIP .389 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Willie Harrislast yr '11 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,743 PA	4.1	2,743	39	106	241	331	351	-11	-2	5.3	6.2
/162	664	9	26	-2.7	-0.5	1.3	pk7: 7
#2Gabe Grosslast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,682 PA	2.5	1,682	40	22	239	330	385	-14	+11	5.1	5.1
/162	664	16	9	-5.7	+4.4	2.0	pk7: 5
#3Sam Fuld'07-'15 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,535 PA	2.3	1,535	12	67	230*	314*	336*	-10	+29	3.7	4.0
/162	664	5	29	-4.3	+12.7	1.6	pk7: 4
#4Ted Savage'62-'71 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,613 PA	2.4	1,613	34	49	233*	335*	390*	-13	+0	3.4	3.8
/162	664	14	20	-5.5	+0.1	1.4	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	0.9	579	7	33	233	330	339	-6	-0	1.2	1.2
/162	664	9	38	-7.1	-0.2	1.3	pk7: 1
#5James Mouton'94-'01 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,795 PA	2.7	1,795	18	109	235*	314*	329*	-11	-0	0.7	1.0
/162	664	7	40	-4.2	-0.1	0.3	pk7: 1
#6Jimmy Stewart'63-'73 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,602 PA	2.4	1,602	8	38	235*	309*	329*	-1	+2	-0.2	0.5
/162	664	3	16	-0.4	+0.7	-0.1	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Tim Locastro (OGILVIE)	35	55	50	60	45	226/295/351	125	277	5	8	22%	6%	85	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Vinny Rottino 2015 · MLB	35	46→56	46→45	51→55	46	231/281/359	129	264	13	16	18%	6%	80	-0.2	210/273/303	93	271	9	4	24%	7%	64	-1.3	198/264/276	78	255	8	1	24%	7%	53	-1.4
✕Willy Taveras 2017 · AAA	35	51→61	41→45	58→65	44	244/294/345	101	290	7	24	18%	5%	81	-0.1	241/294/353	112	295	10	19	21%	4%	83	+0.1	242/295/349	106	300	10	22	22%	3%	80	-0.1
✕Ryan LaMarre 2023 · MLB	34	48→52	45	51→60	44	231/309/356	124	315	12	21	29%	7%	91	+0.6	217/290/341	124	310	13	19	32%	7%	80	-0.2	141/221/232	91	216	10	33	38%	7%	26	-0.7
✕Eric Young Jr. 2019 · MLB	34	48→58	42→45	56→65	44	234/286/343	109	292	9	24	22%	6%	78	-0.3	223/280/331	108	282	9	16	23%	6%	73	-0.6	205/264/289	84	257	6	15	22%	6%	56	-0.8
✕Justin Christian 2015 · MLB	35	47→54	42→45	52→65	47	228/278/335	108	256	8	16	15%	5%	73	-0.6	223/279/331	108	257	9	16	17%	6%	72	-0.7	209/264/276	67	237	6	21	14%	5%	51	-0.7
✕Agustin Murillo 2017 · AAA	35	51→61	43→45	52→55	49	247/295/357	110	267	11	20	13%	6%	84	+0.2	235/285/331	96	263	10	15	14%	6%	75	-0.5	227/281/315	88	253	11	14	14%	6%	68	-0.6
✕Roger Bernadina 2019 · AAA	35	47→57	44→45	53→60	45	227/291/349	122	303	11	18	28%	7%	81	-0.1	245/298/367	122	309	13	10	24%	6%	88	+0.4	269/313/363	95	335	11	4	22%	6%	88	+0.1
✕Raul Sanchez 2008 · AAA	35	52	41→45	49→50	46	251/298/347	96	282	9	14	14%	5%	83	+0.1	241/292/325	84	285	6	11	17%	5%	76	-0.4	254/301/341	88	302	6	4	17%	5%	81	-0.0
✕David Newhan 2009 · MLB	35	49→59	48→50	53→55	45	245/292/391	146	288	15	15	21%	6%	91	+0.7	233/280/353	120	288	11	9	22%	6%	78	-0.3	227/273/325	98	283	7	5	22%	5%	68	-0.7
✕Rene Reyes 2013 · AAA	35	50→60	47→50	54→50	51	247/309/387	140	282	15	19	18%	8%	97	+1.1	248/310/371	123	314	12	13	24%	8%	93	+0.8	255/319/389	134	310	12	8	21%	8%	99	+0.8
✕Andrew Romine 2021 · MLB	35	46→55	42→40	55	43	225/272/327	102	272	10	19	21%	5%	69	-0.9	231/281/321	90	298	8	9	24%	6%	70	-0.8	235/280/294	59	309	3	3	24%	5%	61	-0.8
✕Jerry Owens 2016 · AAA	35	52→62	42→40	56→65	49	251/312/362	111	307	8	21	20%	8%	91	+0.7	257/305/355	98	301	8	14	17%	6%	87	+0.4	329/358/368	39	371	0	14	11%	4%	105	+0.3
✕Wynton Bernard 2024 · MLB	33	49→59	43→45	60	45	240/290/359	119	294	10	32	22%	6%	82	+0.0	232/277/340	108	287	10	30	22%	5%	74	-0.6	225/254/312	87	273	7	44	20%	3%	54	-0.9
✕Chris Denorfia 2015 · MLB	35	54→64	43→50	54→55	50	259/314/376	116	302	10	14	17%	7%	95	+1.0	241/294/349	108	299	10	10	22%	7%	82	-0.0	245/289/342	97	306	9	3	22%	5%	78	-0.1
✕Chris Dickerson 2017 · MLB	35	50→56	45→50	55→60	44	240/301/365	125	325	12	19	29%	8%	88	+0.5	221/296/350	129	315	12	12	31%	9%	84	+0.1	200/288/321	121	289	11	11	32%	10%	71	-0.4
✕Omar Ramirez 2006 · AAA	35	47	49→50	51→50	50	239/296/387	148	259	17	11	16%	7%	92	+0.7	244/302/370	126	272	13	11	15%	7%	91	+0.6	255/315/359	104	282	9	10	13%	7%	90	+0.2
✕Lew Ford 2012 · AAA	35	48→58	46→50	51→50	52	236/302/376	140	257	13	13	15%	8%	92	+0.7	239/287/409	170	265	19	11	18%	6%	94	+0.9	252/299/413	161	276	18	8	16%	6%	97	+0.4
✕Matt Carson 2015 · MLB	34	43→50	45→60	51→50	39	215/264/334	119	286	14	14	30%	5%	68	-1.0	207/268/322	115	270	12	13	27%	6%	68	-1.0	161/232/243	82	201	8	11	24%	6%	35	-1.1
✕Albino Contreras 2014 · AAA	34	50→60	45→50	51→55	46	244/295/366	123	287	12	15	20%	6%	86	+0.3	228/281/314	86	284	6	10	21%	6%	69	-0.9	213/274/256	43	269	0	6	19%	7%	52	-0.6
✕Manny Alexander 2006 · MLB	35	47	44→45	54→55	45	230/279/349	119	272	11	23	20%	6%	76	-0.4	211/252/299	88	251	7	14	18%	5%	54	-2.0	198/234/267	69	234	5	10	17%	4%	38	-2.2

Tim Locastro

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps