Matt Carson

PosRF

B/TR/R

Born1981-07-01

Age (2027)46

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

AAALAST SEASON 2015

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2013	32	AAACLE	490	.252/.324/.394	14	14	59	—	.215/.266/.322
2014	33	AAACLE	311	.259/.339/.423	10	11	57	—	.199/.254/.322
2015	34	AAAMIL	194	.199/.296/.307	3	4	35	—	.169/.243/.262

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2005	24	AA	Trenton Thunder	—	103	99	19	5	0	1	0	25	2	2	3	192	208	273	481	81	247	24	0	211	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	24	A+	Tampa Yankees	—	364	321	81	14	3	8	31	68	8	10	2	252	333	389	723	137	293	19	9	323	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	25	AA	Trenton Thunder	—	97	86	22	8	1	2	4	25	2	0	0	256	304	442	746	186	339	26	4	312	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	25	A+	Tampa Yankees	—	165	136	33	4	1	8	21	31	2	5	3	243	352	463	815	221	250	19	13	349	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	26	AA	Trenton Thunder	—	521	471	117	24	3	16	33	109	9	9	0	248	310	414	724	166	287	21	6	318	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	27	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Yankees	—	339	305	88	10	6	10	21	63	8	10	3	289	350	459	809	170	332	19	6	354	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	27	AA	Trenton Thunder	—	122	112	31	7	4	5	9	20	0	1	1	277	331	545	875	268	299	16	7	375	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	28	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	22	21	6	0	0	1	0	7	0	0	0	286	286	429	714	143	357	32	0	300	89	-0	+0	-0	-6	+0	-0.6
2009	28	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	—	493	440	116	29	3	25	38	94	6	15	4	264	331	514	844	250	279	19	8	362	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	29	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	83	79	14	2	0	4	2	23	0	4	0	177	198	354	552	177	185	28	2	235	52	-5	+1	+0	-4	+2	-0.6
2010	29	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	—	276	244	74	18	2	13	24	58	6	13	4	303	380	553	933	250	349	21	9	405	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	30	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	495	452	126	41	1	24	36	113	5	11	1	279	339	533	872	254	322	23	7	378	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	30	INTL	Estrellas de Oriente	—	30	26	3	2	0	0	3	9	1	0	0	115	233	192	426	77	176	30	10	210	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	31	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	69	66	15	1	0	0	2	21	0	0	0	227	250	242	492	15	326	30	3	222	37	-5	+0	+0	-6	+1	-0.9
2012	31	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	469	422	119	28	2	14	37	106	6	9	5	282	348	457	806	175	345	23	8	355	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	32	AAA	Columbus Clippers	—	490	436	110	16	2	14	39	119	7	14	4	252	324	394	718	142	315	24	8	318	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	33	AAA	Columbus Clippers	—	311	274	71	13	1	10	27	85	6	11	1	259	339	423	762	164	335	27	9	337	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	34	AAA	Nashville Sounds	—	194	166	33	9	0	3	18	37	5	4	1	199	296	307	604	108	233	19	9	273	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	174	166	35	3	0	5	4	51	0	4	0	211	229	319	549	108	263	29	2	238	47	-11	+1	+0	-15	+4	-2.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2005	24	AA MLE	Trenton Thunder	—	103	99	17	4	0	1	0	30	2	2	3	172	188	242	431	71	230	29	0	179	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	24	A+ MLE	Tampa Yankees	—	364	329	68	12	2	7	23	96	8	10	2	207	275	319	594	112	260	26	6	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	25	AA MLE	Trenton Thunder	—	97	87	21	7	1	2	3	30	2	0	0	241	283	414	696	172	308	31	3	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	25	A+ MLE	Tampa Yankees	—	165	142	29	4	1	7	15	44	2	5	3	204	289	394	684	190	218	27	9	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	26	AA MLE	Trenton Thunder	—	521	481	105	20	3	12	23	133	9	9	0	218	267	347	614	129	264	26	4	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	27	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Yankees	—	339	313	80	8	6	8	13	76	8	10	3	256	302	396	699	141	305	22	4	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	27	AA MLE	Trenton Thunder	—	122	116	28	6	4	4	5	24	0	1	1	241	273	466	738	224	273	20	4	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	28	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	22	21	6	0	0	1	0	7	0	0	0	286	286	429	714	143	357	32	0	300	89	-0	+0	-0	-6	+0	-0.6
2009	28	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	—	493	452	97	23	2	19	26	121	6	15	4	215	267	400	667	186	240	25	5	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	29	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	83	79	14	2	0	4	2	23	0	4	0	177	198	354	552	177	185	28	2	245	52	-5	+1	+0	-4	+2	-0.6
2010	29	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	—	276	253	62	15	2	10	15	72	6	13	4	245	303	439	742	194	298	26	5	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	30	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	495	462	109	33	1	20	26	129	5	11	1	236	284	442	726	206	281	26	5	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	31	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	69	66	15	1	0	0	2	21	0	0	0	227	250	242	492	15	326	30	3	222	37	-5	+0	+0	-6	+1	-0.9
2012	31	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	469	436	102	25	2	11	23	121	6	9	5	234	282	376	658	142	293	26	5	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	32	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	—	490	451	97	14	2	10	24	141	7	14	4	215	266	322	587	106	277	29	5	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	33	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	—	311	286	57	9	1	8	15	100	6	11	1	199	254	322	576	122	266	32	5	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	34	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	—	194	172	29	7	0	3	12	46	5	4	1	169	243	262	505	93	197	24	6	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	24	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	467	428	84	16	2	7	23	127	10	12	5	196	254	292	546	96	258	27	5	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	24	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	467	420	100	19	3	9	31	93	10	12	5	238	306	362	668	124	283	20	7	298	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	25	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	262	230	49	11	2	8	17	75	4	5	3	213	279	383	661	170	273	29	6	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	25	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	262	222	55	12	2	10	25	56	4	5	3	248	335	455	790	207	283	21	10	335	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	26	AA MLE	Trenton Thunder	—	521	481	105	20	3	12	23	133	9	9	0	218	267	347	614	129	272	26	4	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	26	AA RAW	Trenton Thunder	—	521	471	117	24	3	16	33	109	9	9	0	248	310	414	724	166	287	21	6	318	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	461	429	109	14	10	12	18	100	8	11	4	254	297	417	714	163	303	22	4	308	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	27	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	461	417	119	17	10	15	30	83	8	11	4	285	345	482	827	197	323	18	7	359	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	515	473	103	23	2	20	26	128	6	15	4	218	267	402	669	184	251	25	5	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	28	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	515	461	122	29	3	26	38	101	6	15	4	265	329	510	838	245	282	20	7	359	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	359	332	77	17	2	15	17	95	6	17	4	232	282	431	712	199	274	26	5	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	29	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	359	323	88	20	2	17	26	81	6	17	4	272	338	505	843	232	310	23	7	365	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	525	490	116	35	1	21	27	137	6	11	1	237	285	441	726	204	284	26	5	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	30	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	525	478	129	43	1	24	39	122	6	11	1	270	333	515	847	245	314	23	7	369	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	538	502	117	26	2	11	25	142	6	9	5	233	278	359	636	125	301	26	5	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	31	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	538	488	134	29	2	14	39	127	6	9	5	275	336	428	764	154	343	24	7	338	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	32	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	—	490	451	97	14	2	10	24	141	7	14	4	215	266	322	587	106	288	29	5	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	32	AAA RAW	Columbus Clippers	—	490	436	110	16	2	14	39	119	7	14	4	252	324	394	718	142	315	24	8	318	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	33	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	—	311	286	57	9	1	8	15	100	6	11	1	199	254	322	576	122	271	32	5	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	33	AAA RAW	Columbus Clippers	—	311	274	71	13	1	10	27	85	6	11	1	259	339	423	762	164	335	27	9	337	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	34	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	—	194	172	29	7	0	3	12	46	5	4	1	169	243	262	505	93	206	24	6	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	34	AAA RAW	Nashville Sounds	—	194	166	33	9	0	3	18	37	5	4	1	199	296	307	604	108	233	19	9	273	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	24	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	467	431	84	16	2	7	23	127	10	12	5	195	254	290	544	95	253	27	5	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	25	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	262	239	49	11	2	8	17	75	4	5	3	205	279	368	647	163	251	29	6	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	26	AA MLE	Trenton Thunder	—	521	484	105	20	3	12	23	133	9	9	0	217	267	345	612	128	264	26	4	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	461	432	109	14	10	12	18	100	8	11	4	252	297	414	711	162	297	22	4	308	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	515	478	103	23	2	20	26	128	6	15	4	215	267	397	665	182	245	25	5	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	359	333	77	17	2	15	17	95	6	17	4	231	282	429	711	198	272	26	5	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	525	487	116	35	1	21	27	137	6	11	1	238	285	444	728	205	281	26	5	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	538	502	117	26	2	11	25	142	6	9	5	233	278	359	636	125	297	26	5	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	32	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	—	490	456	97	14	2	10	24	141	7	14	4	213	266	318	584	105	277	29	5	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	33	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	—	311	287	57	9	1	8	15	100	6	11	1	199	254	321	575	122	266	32	5	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	34	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	—	194	175	29	7	0	3	12	46	5	4	1	166	243	257	501	91	197	24	6	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	174	166	35	3	0	5	4	51	0	4	0	211	229	319	549	108	263	29	2	238	73	-11	+1	+0	-15	+4	-2.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	620	131	11	0	19	15	191	0	15	0	211	230	321	551	110	264	29	2	238	73	-41	+3	+2	-57	+14	-8.0
Career	—	MLE		—	4643	4274	943	192	27	127	227	1224	73	118	32	221	272	367	639	147	275	26	5	276	73	-11	+1	+0	-15	+4	-2.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	598	133	27	4	18	32	171	10	17	4	222	273	371	644	149	278	26	5	276	73	-41	+3	+2	-57	+14	-8.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2015 AAANashville Sounds · 194 PAwOBA .271 → .220 (−51)K% 19.1% → 23.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.07%	÷1.034	×1.290	—	—	23.78%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.28%	÷1.018	×0.710	—	×0.940	6.08%
HBP% /PA	2.58%	—	×0.980	—	×0.940	2.37%
Singles /BIP	16.28%	÷0.953	×0.900	×1.014	×0.940	14.65%
Doubles /BIP	6.98%	÷1.063	×0.810	×1.014	×0.940	5.07%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.952	×0.810	×1.014	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.33%	÷0.843	×0.780	—	×0.940	2.02%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 91, 2B 113, 3B 90, K 107, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 34 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.014.

Result: wOBA .271 → .220; ISO .108 → .088; BABIP .233 → .197. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 AAAColumbus Clippers · 311 PAwOBA .328 → .253 (−75)K% 27.3% → 32.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.33%	÷1.016	×1.200	—	—	32.27%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.72%	÷1.015	×0.690	—	×0.942	4.94%
HBP% /PA	1.93%	—	×0.940	—	×0.942	1.71%
Singles /BIP	24.87%	÷1.034	×0.930	×0.970	×0.942	20.45%
Doubles /BIP	6.88%	÷1.047	×0.830	×0.970	×0.942	4.99%
Triples /BIP	0.53%	÷1.007	×0.970	×0.970	×0.942	0.47%
Home runs /BIP	5.29%	÷1.028	×0.840	—	×0.942	4.07%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 107, 2B 109, 3B 102, K 103, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 27.2 → −5.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.970.

Result: wOBA .328 → .253; ISO .164 → .126; BABIP .335 → .266. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 AAAColumbus Clippers · 490 PAwOBA .309 → .255 (−54)K% 24.3% → 28.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.29%	÷1.013	×1.200	—	—	28.76%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.35%	÷0.986	×0.690	—	×0.952	4.90%
HBP% /PA	1.43%	—	×0.940	—	×0.952	1.28%
Singles /BIP	24.61%	÷0.980	×0.930	×0.996	×0.952	22.13%
Doubles /BIP	5.05%	÷0.933	×0.830	×0.996	×0.952	4.26%
Triples /BIP	0.63%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.996	×0.952	0.64%
Home runs /BIP	4.42%	÷1.111	×0.840	—	×0.952	3.18%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 122, 1B 96, 2B 87, 3B 80, K 103, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.

Result: wOBA .309 → .255; ISO .142 → .110; BABIP .315 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2012 AAARochester Red Wings · 469 PAwOBA .345 → .286 (−59)K% 22.6% → 25.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.60%	÷1.051	×1.200	—	—	25.79%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.46%	÷1.023	×0.690	—	×0.962	4.84%
HBP% /PA	1.28%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	1.16%
Singles /BIP	23.73%	÷1.052	×0.930	×0.996	×0.962	20.10%
Doubles /BIP	8.86%	÷0.913	×0.830	×0.996	×0.962	7.71%
Triples /BIP	0.63%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.996	×0.962	0.65%
Home runs /BIP	4.43%	÷1.010	×0.840	—	×0.962	3.55%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 110, 2B 83, 3B 80, K 110, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.

Result: wOBA .345 → .286; ISO .175 → .149; BABIP .345 → .293. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2011 AAADurham Bulls · 495 PAwOBA .369 → .310 (−59)K% 22.8% → 26.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.83%	÷1.051	×1.200	—	—	26.05%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.27%	÷0.938	×0.690	—	×0.972	5.20%
HBP% /PA	1.01%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	0.92%
Singles /BIP	17.70%	÷0.969	×0.930	×1.000	×0.972	16.51%
Doubles /BIP	12.09%	÷0.994	×0.830	×1.000	×0.972	9.82%
Triples /BIP	0.29%	÷1.017	×0.970	×1.000	×0.972	0.27%
Home runs /BIP	7.08%	÷0.960	×0.840	—	×0.972	6.02%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 94, 2B 99, 3B 103, K 110, BB 88 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.000.

Result: wOBA .369 → .310; ISO .254 → .211; BABIP .322 → .281. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2010 AAASacramento River Cats · 276 PAwOBA .395 → .322 (−74)K% 21.0% → 26.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.01%	÷1.038	×1.290	—	—	26.12%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.33%	÷1.067	×0.710	—	×0.982	5.44%
HBP% /PA	2.17%	—	×0.980	—	×0.982	2.09%
Singles /BIP	22.04%	÷0.998	×0.900	×0.988	×0.982	19.28%
Doubles /BIP	9.68%	÷0.920	×0.810	×0.988	×0.982	8.26%
Triples /BIP	1.08%	÷0.900	×0.810	×0.988	×0.982	0.94%
Home runs /BIP	6.99%	÷0.950	×0.780	—	×0.982	5.63%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 100, 2B 84, 3B 80, K 108, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.

Result: wOBA .395 → .322; ISO .250 → .203; BABIP .349 → .298. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2009 AAASacramento River Cats · 493 PAwOBA .355 → .286 (−69)K% 19.1% → 24.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.07%	÷1.000	×1.290	—	—	24.60%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.51%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×0.992	5.29%
HBP% /PA	1.22%	—	×0.980	—	×0.992	1.18%
Singles /BIP	17.05%	÷1.000	×0.900	×1.015	×0.992	15.45%
Doubles /BIP	8.38%	÷1.000	×0.810	×1.015	×0.992	6.83%
Triples /BIP	0.87%	÷1.000	×0.810	×1.015	×0.992	0.71%
Home runs /BIP	7.23%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×0.992	5.59%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.015.

Result: wOBA .355 → .286; ISO .250 → .193; BABIP .279 → .240. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2008 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre Yankees · 339 PAwOBA .344 → .307 (−38)K% 18.6% → 22.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.58%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	22.30%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.31%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.003	3.67%
HBP% /PA	2.36%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	2.22%
Singles /BIP	25.62%	÷1.000	×0.930	×1.003	×1.003	23.98%
Doubles /BIP	4.13%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.003	×1.003	3.45%
Triples /BIP	2.48%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.003	×1.003	2.42%
Home runs /BIP	4.13%	÷1.000	×0.840	—	×1.003	3.48%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.003.

Result: wOBA .344 → .307; ISO .170 → .150; BABIP .332 → .305. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .