Sam Haggerty

LF Louisville Bats

Age 33 S/R 5'11" / 175 lbs AAA HR +16%BB +6% Svc 5.460 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

AAAArb-3FA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	30	AAASEA	81	.310/.388/.338	0	7	72	—	.270/.325/.297
2024	30	MLBSEA	16	.067/.125/.067	0	1	-46	-0.4
2025	31	AAATEX	98	.302/.375/.384	1	7	80	—	.270/.323/.348
2025	31	MLBTEX	182	.253/.326/.370	2	12	94	-0.3
2026	32	AAACIN	99	.205/.293/.273	1	2	26	—	.174/.232/.228
2026	32	MLBTEX	47	.159/.213/.182	0	2	13	-0.5
2027PROJ10% MLB	33	MLBCIN	13	.224/.289/.314	0	1	70	-0.0
2028PROJ6% MLB	34	MLBCIN	6	.215/.279/.295	0	0	62	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR -1.1 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service5.460First FA2028

2027Arb-3$0.6M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Speed68

Bat Spd34

Avg EV24

xwOBA20

Barrel%10

CompsCraig Gentry (age 32) · Billy Hamilton (age 31) · Eric Young Jr. (age 33)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 7070vR 70

AVG/OBP/SLG.224 / .289 / .314

PA13

HR0

K%23

BB%8

BABIP291

ISO99

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 50 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT50

xAVG

190.226

POWER35

Barrel%

101.8

Avg EV

2487.1

Bat Spd

3469.6

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED60

Sprint

6828.2

Platoon Splits2025 · 182 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

—

wRC+

126

◀◀L

wOBA

355

263

◀◀L

ISO

118

117

—

BABIP

403

214

◀◀L

19.1%

21.6%

◀L

BB%

6.4%

10.2%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2020

Service 5.460 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-3	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2016	22	A	Lake County Captains	—	405	344	79	15	2	4	45	105	5	12	2	230	327	320	647	90	311	26	11	292	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	A+	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	501	427	108	27	13	3	67	103	2	49	13	253	357	398	755	145	325	21	13	337	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AAA	Columbus Clippers	—	21	17	3	0	0	0	2	6	1	2	0	176	300	176	476		273	29	10	231	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA	Akron RubberDucks	—	351	280	68	21	5	4	57	77	4	24	7	243	378	396	775	154	314	22	16	343	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AAA	Syracuse Mets	—	49	42	13	4	1	1	4	10	1	4	0	310	383	524	907	214	387	20	8	381	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AA	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	—	292	247	64	8	5	2	40	78	4	19	4	259	371	356	727	97	369	27	14	335	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	54	50	13	4	0	1	4	16	0	4	0	260	315	400	715	140	364	30	7	319	104	+0	+1	-1	-1	+1	0.0
2021	27	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	94	86	16	3	0	2	6	28	1	5	1	186	247	291	538	105	250	30	6	244	53	-5	+1	-1	-1	+2	-0.4
2022	28	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	201	176	45	9	1	5	18	53	4	13	1	256	338	403	742	148	333	26	9	329	104	+1	+2	+2	-4	+4	0.5
2022	28	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	—	179	152	43	11	2	6	18	34	4	15	1	283	374	500	874	217	325	19	10	375	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	108	91	23	3	1	1	15	17	1	10	1	253	364	341	705	88	301	16	14	324	107	+1	+2	-3	-4	+2	-0.2
2023	29	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	—	222	185	60	15	4	8	29	37	4	19	2	324	427	578	1.005	254	361	17	13	430	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	16	15	1	0	0	0	1	4	0	1	0	67	125	67	192		91	25	6	100	-46	-3	+0	-0	-1	+0	-0.4
2024	30	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	—	81	71	22	2	0	0	8	19	1	7	1	310	388	338	726	28	423	23	10	333	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	182	162	41	7	3	2	16	37	2	12	4	253	326	370	696	117	317	20	9	312	94	-1	+1	-3	-3	+4	-0.3
2025	31	AAA	Round Rock Express	—	98	86	26	2	1	1	9	21	1	7	0	302	375	384	759	81	385	21	9	339	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	32	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	47	44	7	1	0	0	2	16	1	2	0	159	213	182	395	23	250	34	4	188	13	-5	+0	+0	-2	+1	-0.5
2026	32	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	99	88	18	3	0	1	11	27	0	2	2	205	293	273	566	68	283	27	11	265	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	702	624	146	27	5	11	62	171	9	47	7	234	312	346	658	112	304	24	9	297	87	-11	+7	-6	-15	+15	-1.0
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2016	22	A MLE	Lake County Captains	—	405	358	69	13	2	2	31	138	5	12	2	193	266	257	523	64	283	34	8	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	A+ MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	501	452	92	20	9	3	42	140	2	49	13	204	274	308	582	104	282	28	8	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	—	21	18	3	0	0	0	1	7	1	2	0	167	250	167	417		273	33	5	214	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	—	351	295	71	21	5	4	42	94	4	24	7	241	343	386	730	146	318	27	12	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	—	49	44	12	3	1	1	2	12	1	4	0	273	319	455	774	182	347	24	4	341	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AA MLE	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	—	292	257	58	7	5	2	30	88	4	19	4	226	316	315	631	89	331	30	10	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	54	50	13	4	0	1	4	16	0	4	0	260	315	400	715	140	364	30	7	323	104	+0	+1	-1	-1	+1	0.0
2021	27	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	94	86	16	3	0	2	6	28	1	5	1	186	247	291	538	105	250	30	6	246	53	-5	+1	-1	-1	+2	-0.4
2022	28	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	201	179	45	9	1	5	15	53	4	13	1	251	323	397	720	145	333	26	7	322	104	+1	+2	+2	-4	+4	0.5
2022	28	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	—	179	158	40	11	2	4	12	40	4	15	1	253	322	424	746	171	301	22	7	318	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	108	91	23	3	1	1	15	17	1	10	1	253	364	341	705	88	301	16	14	327	107	+1	+2	-3	-4	+2	-0.2
2023	29	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	—	222	195	55	14	4	5	19	43	4	19	2	282	358	472	830	190	324	19	9	359	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	16	15	1	0	0	0	1	4	0	1	0	67	125	67	192		91	25	6	100	-46	-3	+0	-0	-1	+0	-0.4
2024	30	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	—	81	74	20	2	0	0	5	23	1	7	1	270	325	297	622	27	377	28	6	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	182	164	41	7	3	2	15	37	2	12	4	250	320	366	686	116	317	20	8	307	94	-1	+1	-3	-3	+4	-0.3
2025	31	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	—	98	89	24	2	1	1	6	23	1	7	0	270	323	348	671	79	331	23	6	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	32	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	47	44	7	1	0	0	2	16	1	2	0	159	213	182	395	23	250	34	4	188	13	-5	+0	+0	-2	+1	-0.5
2026	32	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	99	92	16	2	0	1	7	32	0	2	2	174	232	228	461	54	257	32	7	207	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A MLE	Lake County Captains	—	405	358	69	13	2	2	31	138	5	12	2	193	266	257	523	64	299	34	8	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A RAW	Lake County Captains	—	405	344	79	15	2	4	45	105	5	12	2	230	327	320	647	90	311	26	11	292	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	A+ MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	501	452	92	20	9	3	42	140	2	49	13	204	274	308	582	104	286	28	8	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	A+ RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	501	427	108	27	13	3	67	103	2	49	13	253	357	398	755	145	325	21	13	337	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	372	312	74	21	5	4	44	101	5	26	7	237	341	375	716	138	330	27	12	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA RAW	2 teams	—	372	297	71	21	5	4	59	83	5	26	7	239	374	384	758	145	312	22	16	337	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AA MLE	2 teams	—	341	301	70	10	6	3	32	100	5	23	4	233	317	336	652	103	337	29	9	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AA RAW	2 teams	—	341	289	77	12	6	3	44	88	5	23	4	266	373	381	753	114	372	26	13	341	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	54	50	13	4	0	1	4	16	0	4	0	260	315	400	715	140	364	30	7	323	104	+0	+1	-1	-1	+1	0.0
2020	26	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	—	54	50	13	4	0	1	4	16	0	4	0	260	315	400	715	140	364	30	7	319	104	+0	+1	-1	-1	+1	0.0
2021	27	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	94	86	16	3	0	2	6	28	1	5	1	186	247	291	538	105	250	30	6	246	53	-5	+1	-1	-1	+2	-0.4
2021	27	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	—	94	86	16	3	0	2	6	28	1	5	1	186	247	291	538	105	250	30	6	244	53	-5	+1	-1	-1	+2	-0.4
2022	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	380	337	85	20	3	9	27	93	8	28	2	252	323	409	732	157	318	24	7	320	103	+1	+5	+2	-4	+8	1.2
2022	28	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	380	328	88	20	3	11	36	87	8	28	2	268	355	448	803	180	329	23	9	351	103	+1	+5	+2	-4	+8	1.2
2023	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	330	286	78	17	5	6	34	60	5	29	3	273	360	430	790	157	321	18	10	348	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	330	276	83	18	5	9	44	54	5	29	3	301	406	500	906	199	341	16	13	395	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	97	89	21	2	0	0	6	27	1	8	1	236	292	258	550	22	339	28	6	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	97	86	23	2	0	0	9	23	1	8	1	267	344	291	634	23	365	24	9	295	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	280	253	64	9	4	3	21	60	3	19	4	253	318	356	673	103	319	21	8	300	89	-4	+2	-3	-3	+6	-0.2
2025	31	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	280	248	67	9	4	3	25	58	3	19	4	270	343	375	718	105	340	21	9	322	89	-4	+2	-3	-3	+6	-0.2
2026	32	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	146	136	23	3	0	1	9	48	1	4	2	169	226	213	439	44	253	33	6	201	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	32	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	146	132	25	4	0	1	13	43	1	4	2	189	267	242	510	53	273	29	9	241	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A MLE	Lake County Captains	—	405	366	69	13	2	2	31	138	5	12	2	189	266	251	518	63	283	34	8	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	A+ MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	501	452	92	20	9	3	42	140	2	49	13	204	274	308	582	104	282	28	8	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	372	320	74	21	5	4	44	101	5	26	7	231	341	366	706	134	315	27	12	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AA MLE	2 teams	—	341	301	70	10	6	3	32	100	5	23	4	233	317	336	652	103	333	29	9	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	54	50	13	4	0	1	4	16	0	4	0	260	315	400	715	140	364	30	7	323	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	27	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	94	87	16	3	0	2	6	28	1	5	1	184	247	287	535	103	250	30	6	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	380	342	85	20	3	9	27	93	8	28	2	249	323	404	726	155	318	24	7	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	330	288	78	17	5	6	34	60	5	29	3	271	360	427	787	156	317	18	10	348	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	97	90	21	2	0	0	6	27	1	8	1	233	292	256	547	22	330	28	6	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	280	254	64	9	4	3	21	60	3	19	4	252	318	354	672	102	322	21	8	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	32	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	146	135	23	3	0	1	9	48	1	4	2	170	226	215	441	44	255	33	6	201	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	97	90	21	2	0	0	6	27	1	8	1	233	292	256	547	22	330	28	6	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	280	254	64	9	4	3	21	60	3	19	4	252	318	354	672	102	322	21	8	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	32	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	146	135	23	3	0	1	9	48	1	4	2	170	226	215	441	44	255	33	6	201	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	33	MLB MLE	CIN	10%	214	194	42	7	1	2	16	53	2	10	2	222	288	310	598	88	291	25	7	272	70	-8	+1	+1	-2	+5	-0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	33	MLB CTX	CIN	10%	13	12	2	0	0	0	1	3	0	1	0	224	289	314	603	90	291	23	8	274	70	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	CIN	6%	107	97	21	3	1	1	8	27	1	3	1	214	278	292	570	78	283	25	7	260	62	-5	+0	-5	-1	+2	-0.8
2028	34	MLB CTX	CIN	6%	6	6	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	215	279	295	574	80	284	33	0	262	62	-0	+0	-0	-0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	708	630	147	27	5	11	62	173	9	47	7	233	311	344	655	111	304	24	9	297	78	-11	+7	-7	-15	+15	-1.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	578	135	25	5	10	57	159	8	43	6	234	311	346	657	112	304	24	9	297	78	-10	+6	-6	-14	+14	-1.0
Career	—	MLE		—	3240	2878	653	129	36	37	274	871	38	216	41	227	303	335	638	108	309	27	8	283	78	-20	+8	-11	-17	+20	-2.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	577	130	26	7	7	55	175	8	43	8	225	302	331	633	106	307	27	8	283	78	-14	+5	-7	-12	+14	-1.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAALouisville Bats · 99 PAwOBA .259 → .207 (−53)K% 27.3% → 32.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.27%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	32.73%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.11%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.952	7.30%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.952	0.00%
Singles /BIP	22.95%	÷1.000	×0.930	×1.050	×0.952	21.34%
Doubles /BIP	4.92%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.050	×0.952	4.08%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.050	×0.952	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.64%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.952	1.09%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .259 → .207; ISO .068 → .050; BABIP .283 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAARound Rock Express · 98 PAwOBA .334 → .286 (−48)K% 21.4% → 23.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.43%	÷1.086	×1.200	—	—	23.69%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.18%	÷0.962	×0.690	—	×0.962	6.34%
HBP% /PA	1.02%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	0.92%
Singles /BIP	33.85%	÷1.053	×0.930	×1.004	×0.962	28.89%
Doubles /BIP	3.08%	÷0.881	×0.830	×1.004	×0.962	2.80%
Triples /BIP	1.54%	÷0.921	×0.970	×1.004	×0.962	1.57%
Home runs /BIP	1.54%	÷0.913	×0.700	—	×0.962	1.13%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 111, 2B 76, 3B 84, K 117, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.

Result: wOBA .334 → .286; ISO .081 → .073; BABIP .385 → .331. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAATacoma Rainiers · 81 PAwOBA .325 → .274 (−51)K% 23.5% → 28.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.46%	÷1.004	×1.200	—	—	28.05%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.88%	÷1.011	×0.690	—	×0.972	6.55%
HBP% /PA	1.23%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	1.13%
Singles /BIP	38.46%	÷1.010	×0.930	×1.006	×0.972	34.64%
Doubles /BIP	3.85%	÷1.014	×0.830	×1.006	×0.972	3.08%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	×1.006	×0.972	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.142	×0.700	—	×0.972	0.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 128, 1B 102, 2B 103, 3B 80, K 101, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.

Result: wOBA .325 → .274; ISO .028 → .023; BABIP .423 → .377. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAATacoma Rainiers · 222 PAwOBA .426 → .359 (−68)K% 16.7% → 19.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.67%	÷1.024	×1.200	—	—	19.53%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.06%	÷1.013	×0.690	—	×0.982	8.74%
HBP% /PA	1.80%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	1.66%
Singles /BIP	22.30%	÷0.989	×0.930	×0.999	×0.982	20.57%
Doubles /BIP	10.14%	÷0.940	×0.830	×0.999	×0.982	8.78%
Triples /BIP	2.70%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.999	×0.982	2.86%
Home runs /BIP	5.41%	÷1.157	×0.700	—	×0.982	3.21%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 131, 1B 98, 2B 88, 3B 80, K 105, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.

Result: wOBA .426 → .359; ISO .254 → .203; BABIP .361 → .324. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAATacoma Rainiers · 179 PAwOBA .369 → .318 (−51)K% 19.0% → 22.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.99%	÷1.020	×1.200	—	—	22.36%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.06%	÷1.048	×0.690	—	×0.992	6.57%
HBP% /PA	2.23%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	2.08%
Singles /BIP	20.34%	÷1.013	×0.930	×1.005	×0.992	18.61%
Doubles /BIP	9.32%	÷0.839	×0.830	×1.005	×0.992	9.19%
Triples /BIP	1.69%	÷0.902	×0.970	×1.005	×0.992	1.82%
Home runs /BIP	5.08%	÷1.144	×0.700	—	×0.992	3.09%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 129, 1B 103, 2B 68, 3B 80, K 104, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.

Result: wOBA .369 → .318; ISO .217 → .179; BABIP .325 → .301. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 292 PAwOBA .328 → .281 (−47)K% 26.7% → 30.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.71%	÷1.083	×1.220	—	—	30.08%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.70%	÷0.942	×0.700	—	×0.998	10.16%
HBP% /PA	1.37%	—	×0.850	—	×0.998	1.16%
Singles /BIP	28.99%	÷1.026	×0.970	×0.950	×0.998	25.99%
Doubles /BIP	4.73%	÷0.945	×0.860	×0.950	×0.998	4.08%
Triples /BIP	2.96%	÷0.900	×0.950	×0.950	×0.998	2.96%
Home runs /BIP	1.18%	÷1.012	×0.780	—	×0.998	0.91%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 105, 2B 89, 3B 80, K 117, BB 88 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .328 → .281; ISO .097 → .088; BABIP .369 → .331. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAASyracuse Mets · 49 PAwOBA .365 → .341 (−24)K% 20.4% → 24.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.41%	÷1.020	×1.200	—	—	24.02%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.12%	÷0.966	×0.690	—	×1.033	4.52%
HBP% /PA	2.04%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	1.98%
Singles /BIP	21.88%	÷1.042	×0.930	—	×1.033	20.18%
Doubles /BIP	12.50%	÷1.060	×0.830	—	×1.033	10.11%
Triples /BIP	3.12%	÷0.900	×0.970	—	×1.033	3.48%
Home runs /BIP	3.12%	÷0.960	×0.840	—	×1.033	2.82%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 108, 2B 112, 3B 80, K 104, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .365 → .341; ISO .214 → .207; BABIP .387 → .347. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAAkron RubberDucks · 351 PAwOBA .339 → .320 (−19)K% 21.9% → 26.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.94%	÷1.004	×1.220	—	—	26.66%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.95%	÷0.941	×0.700	—	×1.012	12.01%
HBP% /PA	1.14%	—	×0.850	—	×1.012	0.98%
Singles /BIP	18.72%	÷0.968	×0.970	×1.025	×1.012	19.44%
Doubles /BIP	10.34%	÷0.922	×0.860	×1.025	×1.012	10.01%
Triples /BIP	2.46%	÷0.980	×0.950	×1.025	×1.012	2.48%
Home runs /BIP	1.97%	÷0.840	×0.780	—	×1.012	1.85%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 68, 1B 94, 2B 84, 3B 96, K 101, BB 88 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.025.

Result: wOBA .339 → .320; ISO .154 → .155; BABIP .314 → .318. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Willie Harrislast yr '11 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,743 PA	4.1	2,743	39	106	241	331	351	-11	-2	5.3	6.2
/162	664	9	26	-2.7	-0.5	1.3	pk7: 7
#2Ted Savage'62-'71 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,613 PA	2.4	1,613	34	49	233*	335*	390*	-13	+0	3.4	3.8
/162	664	14	20	-5.5	+0.1	1.4	pk7: 4
#3Max Venable'79-'91 * career totals — 10 seasons, 1,560 PA	2.3	1,560	18	64	238*	301*	371*	-11	-1	0.9	1.9
/162	664	8	27	-4.6	-0.3	0.4	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	1.0	658	11	45	244	320	365	-7	-5	1.4	1.4
/162	664	11	45	-7.1	-5.5	1.4	pk7: 1
#4So Taguchi'02-'09 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,524 PA	2.3	1,524	19	39	268*	320*	372*	-8	-8	0.9	1.2
/162	664	8	17	-3.7	-3.3	0.4	pk7: 1
#5James Mouton'94-'01 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,795 PA	2.7	1,795	18	109	235*	314*	329*	-11	-0	0.7	1.0
/162	664	7	40	-4.2	-0.1	0.3	pk7: 1
#6Alex Presley'10-'17 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,502 PA	2.3	1,502	29	30	265*	309*	397*	-12	-10	0.6	0.9
/162	664	13	13	-5.3	-4.6	0.3	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Sam Haggerty (OGILVIE)	33	50	35	60	50	220/285/307	87	291	2	6	25%	7%	70	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Craig Gentry 2016 · MLB	32	48→55	37→40	57→60	46	228/284/295	67	282	5	29	20%	6%	65	-1.2	218/278/298	80	277	6	24	22%	7%	64	-1.3	218/282/291	73	279	4	29	22%	7%	64	-0.4
✕Billy Hamilton 2022 · MLB	31	43→53	42→40	61→70	41	212/261/324	112	292	8	32	30%	6%	63	-1.3	189/248/283	94	290	8	32	35%	7%	50	-2.3	129/196/167	38	216	1	52	38%	7%	2	-1.2
✕Eric Young Jr. 2018 · MLB	33	49→59	41→45	58→65	45	236/293/333	97	285	9	32	20%	6%	78	-0.3	226/280/333	107	286	8	19	23%	6%	73	-0.6	217/269/317	101	278	6	17	23%	6%	64	-0.8
✕Mike McCoy 2014 · MLB	33	46→56	38→40	54→60	54	220/298/295	75	265	6	30	19%	10%	72	-0.7	191/265/261	70	247	4	18	23%	8%	52	-2.2	159/236/208	49	212	2	14	24%	8%	28	-1.9
✕Quintin Berry 2018 · AAA	33	44→54	37→40	56→65	44	211/274/278	67	288	5	32	27%	7%	58	-1.7	213/269/319	106	311	11	24	33%	6%	66	-1.1	162/208/235	73	255	8	48	38%	5%	21	-0.8
✕Andrew Romine 2017 · MLB	31	50→55	40	55	46	239/297/327	88	294	8	22	21%	6%	78	-0.3	231/286/330	99	285	8	15	21%	6%	75	-0.5	225/274/315	90	276	8	17	21%	5%	66	-0.6
✕Emilio Bonifácio 2019 · MLB	34	49→59	38→40	56→65	44	233/272/315	83	280	5	26	19%	5%	65	-1.2	226/277/357	131	291	12	20	26%	6%	78	-0.3	219/267/351	133	281	12	27	26%	6%	69	-0.5
✕Travis Jankowski 2023 · MLB	32	48→58	37→40	59→65	56	225/316/299	74	289	5	28	22%	11%	80	-0.2	231/312/305	74	287	5	29	19%	10%	79	-0.2	230/309/287	57	284	3	34	18%	9%	73	-0.2
✕Willy Taveras 2015 · AAA	33	46→56	42→45	60→65	44	225/279/329	104	272	9	27	20%	6%	72	-0.7	239/291/343	104	289	8	24	20%	5%	80	-0.2	247/297/348	101	301	8	22	20%	4%	80	-0.1
✕Shane Robinson 2018 · MLB	33	51→56	37→45	56→55	48	241/288/318	77	275	4	19	14%	6%	72	-0.7	227/276/312	85	255	7	16	14%	6%	67	-1.1	216/267/289	74	239	7	15	13%	6%	56	-0.9
✕Jonathan Davis 2023 · MLB	31	46→52	40→45	57→55	51	219/314/311	92	297	8	27	27%	10%	82	+0.0	218/293/335	117	304	10	17	29%	8%	79	-0.2	204/277/324	120	289	10	14	31%	7%	68	-0.5
✕Wynton Bernard 2024 · MLB	33	49→59	43→45	60	45	240/290/359	119	294	10	32	22%	6%	82	+0.0	232/277/340	108	287	10	30	22%	5%	74	-0.6	225/254/312	87	273	7	44	20%	3%	54	-0.9
✕Sam Fuld 2015 · MLB	33	48→57	41→45	58→60	55	230/302/333	104	261	8	25	15%	9%	82	-0.0	220/293/332	112	258	8	18	17%	9%	78	-0.3	194/270/290	96	231	4	17	17%	9%	61	-0.8
✕Tim Torres 2017 · AAA	33	51→49	44→45	55	45	246/304/370	124	320	11	20	26%	7%	91	+0.6	242/309/370	128	322	13	18	27%	9%	93	+0.8	238/321/351	114	321	12	20	28%	11%	96	+0.3
✕Tyler Heineman 2024 · MLB	33	45→46	38→45	51→50	51	211/289/288	76	261	5	10	20%	9%	67	-1.1	218/297/318	100	261	10	12	20%	8%	77	-0.3	207/282/291	85	243	8	10	18%	6%	65	-0.4
✕Adrian Brown 2006 · MLB	32	49	41→45	58→55	52	232/295/335	103	264	7	24	15%	8%	79	-0.2	233/292/330	97	278	8	23	18%	8%	77	-0.3	236/290/286	49	288	3	34	18%	7%	64	-0.4
✕Nick Punto 2011 · MLB	33	51→60	37→40	52→55	57	236/317/311	76	281	4	17	17%	11%	82	+0.0	238/321/327	89	290	5	11	18%	11%	87	+0.4	243/328/321	79	300	3	9	18%	11%	91	+0.3
✕Pete Orr 2011 · MLB	32	45	43→45	56→55	41	220/264/339	119	263	9	21	21%	4%	69	-0.9	221/260/319	98	272	7	20	21%	4%	62	-1.4	228/255/314	86	291	5	16	23%	3%	55	-1.2
✕Gilberto Mejia 2017 · AAA	34	51→58	38→40	60→65	44	243/287/328	85	289	4	36	17%	4%	74	-0.5	238/291/331	93	285	6	23	18%	6%	77	-0.3	255/317/333	78	302	2	24	15%	7%	86	+0.1
✕Jack Reinheimer 2023 · AAA	31	44→52	40	55	41	214/267/301	87	289	7	20	28%	6%	61	-1.5	185/232/266	81	267	7	16	32%	5%	40	-3.1	136/171/180	44	185	3	12	28%	4%	-4	-1.4

Sam Haggerty

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps