Billy Hamilton

PosCF
B/TS/R
Born1990-09-09
Age (2027)36
No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.
Overview
INTL
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202332AAATB113.179/.291/.2631814—.140/.218/.210
202433INTLMexico309.244/.332/.37634397—
202534INTLMexico Rojo149.231/.310/.31511276—
Contract
No contract data on file.
Skills · percentileStatcast 2021-2023
Speed76
Barrel%10
xwOBA10
Avg EV10

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
200918 ROKGCL Reds — 180166 34630 11470 143 205254277531 72283 266 238 -5 — — — — — —
201019 ROKBillings Mustangs — 316283 9013102 28563 489 318385456841 138388 189 372 63 — — — — — —
201120 ADayton Dragons — 610550 1531893 521331 10320 278342360702 82360 229 315 58 — — — — — —
201120 INTLLeones de Ponce — 4236 7000 5100 62 194293194487 259 2412 234 44 — — — — — —
201221 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos — 213175 50451 36430 5116 286408383790 97371 2017 360 108 — — — — — —
201221 A+Bakersfield Blaze — 392337 1091891 50702 10421 323414439853 116404 1813 381 99 — — — — — —
201221 INTLPeoria Javelinas — 7364 15111 7120 102 234310328638 94269 1610 284 78 — — — — — —
201322 MLBCincinnati Reds — 2219 7200 240 131 368429474902 105467 189 386 147 +1 +2 +0 +2 +0 0.7
201322 AAALouisville Bats — 547504 1291846 381020 7515 256308343651 87310 197 292 59 — — — — — —
201322 INTLCangrejeros de Santurce — 8275 17310 6120 112 227284293577 67270 157 261 63 — — — — — —
201423 MLBCincinnati Reds — 611563 1412586 341171 5623 250294355650 105304 196 285 77 -16 +2 +13 +2 +13 1.5
201524 MLBCincinnati Reds — 454412 93834 28751 578 226277289565 63264 176 252 54 -25 +8 +9 +2 +10 0.4
201625 MLBCincinnati Reds — 460411 1071933 36931 588 260321343664 83329 208 295 84 -9 +8 +19 +2 +10 3.1
201726 MLBCincinnati Reds — 633582 14417114 441330 5913 247300335635 88313 217 284 77 -18 +7 +12 +2 +14 1.7
201827 MLBCincinnati Reds — 556504 1191694 461321 3410 236301327629 91309 248 284 76 -16 +3 +13 +2 +12 1.4
201928 MLBAtlanta Braves — 353316 691420 32870 226 218290275566 57299 259 259 60 -17 +2 +3 +1 +8 -0.3
202029 MLBChicago Cubs — 3632 4001 270 62 125176219395 94120 196 172 4 -4 +0 +3 +0 +1 -0.0
202130 MLBChicago White Sox — 135127 28832 4470 90 220244378622 157329 353 264 64 -6 +2 +1 +1 +3 0.0
202130 AAACharlotte Knights — 2119 3100 280 10 158238211449 53273 3810 214 -12 — — — — — —
202231 MLBMinnesota Twins — 2320 1000 2120 101 5013650186 125 529 100 -46 -4 +2 -0 -1 +0 -0.3
202231 AAASt. Paul Saints — 10696 18400 10310 50 188264229493 42277 299 234 0 — — — — — —
202332 AAADurham Bulls — 11395 17311 14351 80 179291263554 84267 3112 256 14 — — — — — —
202433 INTLMexico — 309266 651463 33602 434 244332376708 132302 1911 312 97 — — — — — —
202534 INTLMexico Rojo — 149130 30611 15300 122 231310315626 85293 2010 280 76 — — — — — —
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 32832986 7131093924 2307074 32472 239294326620 87303 227 276 73 -106 +36 +73 +13 +71 8.8
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
200918 ROK MLEGCL Reds — 180170 24420 7680 143 141175188363 47227 384 161 -5 — — — — — —
201019 ROK MLEBillings Mustangs — 316294 67971 17813 489 228277316593 88304 265 261 63 — — — — — —
201120 A MLEDayton Dragons — 610565 1331472 371811 10320 235284296579 60333 306 254 58 — — — — — —
201221 AA MLEPensacola Blue Wahoos — 213187 53451 24510 5116 283365374739 91382 2411 328 108 — — — — — —
201221 A+ MLEBakersfield Blaze — 392351 971571 36942 10421 276347368715 91367 249 314 99 — — — — — —
201322 MLB MLECincinnati Reds — 2219 7200 240 131 368429474902 105467 189 385 147 +1 +2 +0 +2 +0 0.7
201322 AAA MLELouisville Bats — 547516 1211645 261270 7515 234271310581 76299 235 255 59 — — — — — —
201423 MLB MLECincinnati Reds — 611563 1402586 341171 5623 249293353646 105304 196 282 77 -16 +2 +13 +2 +13 1.5
201524 MLB MLECincinnati Reds — 454412 93834 28751 578 226277289565 63264 176 249 54 -25 +8 +9 +2 +10 0.4
201625 MLB MLECincinnati Reds — 460411 1071933 36931 588 260321343664 83329 208 292 84 -9 +8 +19 +2 +10 3.1
201726 MLB MLECincinnati Reds — 633582 14317114 441330 5913 246299333632 88313 217 281 77 -18 +7 +12 +2 +14 1.7
201827 MLB MLECincinnati Reds — 556504 1191694 461321 3410 236301327629 91309 248 280 76 -16 +3 +13 +2 +12 1.4
201928 MLB MLEAtlanta Braves — 353317 691420 31870 226 218287274562 57299 259 257 60 -17 +2 +3 +1 +8 -0.3
202029 MLB MLEChicago Cubs — 3632 4001 270 62 125176219395 94120 196 174 4 -4 +0 +3 +0 +1 -0.0
202130 MLB MLEChicago White Sox — 135127 28832 4470 90 220244378622 157329 353 263 64 -6 +2 +1 +1 +3 0.0
202130 AAA MLECharlotte Knights — 2120 3100 190 10 150190200390 50229 435 151 -12 — — — — — —
202231 MLB MLEMinnesota Twins — 2320 1000 2120 101 5013650186 125 529 100 -46 -4 +2 -0 -1 +0 -0.3
202231 AAA MLESt. Paul Saints — 106100 14300 6380 50 140189170359 30228 366 168 0 — — — — — —
202332 AAA MLEDurham Bulls — 113100 14211 9421 80 140218210428 70215 378 189 14 — — — — — —
200918 ROK MLEGCL Reds — 180170 24420 7680 143 141175188363 47233 384 161 -5 — — — — — —
200918 ROK RAWGCL Reds — 180166 34630 11470 143 205254277531 72283 266 238 -5 — — — — — —
201019 ROK MLEBillings Mustangs — 316294 67971 17813 489 228277316593 88308 265 261 63 — — — — — —
201019 ROK RAWBillings Mustangs — 316283 9013102 28563 489 318385456841 138388 189 372 63 — — — — — —
201120 A MLE2 teams — 652604 1411572 391941 10922 233281291572 58337 306 254 58 — — — — — —
201120 A RAW2 teams — 652586 1601893 571431 10922 273339350688 77354 229 310 58 — — — — — —
201221 A+ MLE3 teams — 678601 16822141 681622 16539 280355368722 88379 2410 319 102 — — — — — —
201221 A+ RAW3 teams — 678576 17423153 931252 16539 302401410811 108379 1814 364 102 — — — — — —
201322 AAA MLE3 teams — 651612 1482156 321500 9918 242280322601 80311 235 260 62 — — — — — —
201322 AAA RAW3 teams — 651598 1532356 461180 9918 256309341650 85309 187 292 62 — — — — — —
201423 MLB MLECincinnati Reds — 611563 1402586 341171 5623 249293353646 105302 196 282 77 -16 +2 +13 +2 +13 1.5
201423 MLB RAWCincinnati Reds — 611563 1412586 341171 5623 250294355650 105304 196 285 77 -16 +2 +13 +2 +13 1.5
201524 MLB MLECincinnati Reds — 454412 93834 28751 578 226277289565 63264 176 249 54 -25 +8 +9 +2 +10 0.4
201524 MLB RAWCincinnati Reds — 454412 93834 28751 578 226277289565 63264 176 252 54 -25 +8 +9 +2 +10 0.4
201625 MLB MLECincinnati Reds — 460411 1071933 36931 588 260321343664 83329 208 292 84 -9 +8 +19 +2 +10 3.1
201625 MLB RAWCincinnati Reds — 460411 1071933 36931 588 260321343664 83329 208 295 84 -9 +8 +19 +2 +10 3.1
201726 MLB MLECincinnati Reds — 633582 14317114 441330 5913 246299333632 88311 217 281 77 -18 +7 +12 +2 +14 1.7
201726 MLB RAWCincinnati Reds — 633582 14417114 441330 5913 247300335635 88313 217 284 77 -18 +7 +12 +2 +14 1.7
201827 MLB MLECincinnati Reds — 556504 1191694 461321 3410 236301327629 91309 248 280 76 -16 +3 +13 +2 +12 1.4
201827 MLB RAWCincinnati Reds — 556504 1191694 461321 3410 236301327629 91309 248 284 76 -16 +3 +13 +2 +12 1.4
201928 MLB MLEAtlanta Braves — 353317 691420 31870 226 218287274562 57297 259 257 60 -17 +2 +3 +1 +8 -0.3
201928 MLB RAWAtlanta Braves — 353316 691420 32870 226 218290275566 57299 259 259 60 -17 +2 +3 +1 +8 -0.3
202029 MLB MLEChicago Cubs — 3632 4001 270 62 125176219395 94120 196 174 4 -4 +0 +3 +0 +1 -0.0
202029 MLB RAWChicago Cubs — 3632 4001 270 62 125176219395 94120 196 172 4 -4 +0 +3 +0 +1 -0.0
202130 MLB MLE2 teams — 156147 31932 5560 100 211237354591 143322 363 248 54 -9 +2 +1 +1 +3 -0.2
202130 MLB RAW2 teams — 156146 31932 6550 100 212243356600 144322 354 257 54 -9 +2 +1 +1 +3 -0.2
202231 AAA MLE2 teams — 129120 15300 8500 151 125180150330 25214 396 156 -8 — — — — — —
202231 AAA RAW2 teams — 129116 19400 12430 151 164242198440 34260 339 210 -8 — — — — — —
202332 AAA MLEDurham Bulls — 113100 14211 9421 80 140218210428 70224 378 189 14 — — — — — —
202332 AAA RAWDurham Bulls — 11395 17311 14351 80 179291263554 84267 3112 256 14 — — — — — —
202433 INTL MLEMexico — 309266 651463 33602 434 244332376708 132302 1911 — — — — — — — —
202433 INTL RAWMexico — 309266 651463 33602 434 244332376708 132302 1911 312 97 — — — — — —
202534 INTL MLEMexico Rojo — 149130 30611 15300 122 231310315626 85293 2010 — — — — — — — —
202534 INTL RAWMexico Rojo — 149130 30611 15300 122 231310315626 85293 2010 280 76 — — — — — —
200918 ROK MLEGCL Reds — 180171 24420 7680 143 140175187362 47227 384 161 -5 — — — — — —
201019 ROK MLEBillings Mustangs — 316293 67971 17813 489 229277317594 89304 265 261 63 — — — — — —
201120 A MLE2 teams — 652607 1411572 391941 10922 232281290571 58333 306 254 58 — — — — — —
201221 A+ MLE3 teams — 678603 16822141 681622 16539 279355367721 88372 2410 319 102 — — — — — —
201322 AAA MLE3 teams — 651614 1482156 321500 9918 241280321600 80305 235 260 62 — — — — — —
201423 MLB MLECincinnati Reds — 611571 1402586 341171 5623 245293349641 103304 196 282 77 — — — — — —
201524 MLB MLECincinnati Reds — 454422 93834 28751 578 220277282559 62264 176 249 54 — — — — — —
201625 MLB MLECincinnati Reds — 460420 1071933 36931 588 255321336657 81329 208 292 84 — — — — — —
201726 MLB MLECincinnati Reds — 633584 14317114 441330 5913 245299332631 87313 217 281 77 — — — — — —
201827 MLB MLECincinnati Reds — 556504 1191694 461321 3410 236301327629 91309 248 280 76 — — — — — —
201928 MLB MLEAtlanta Braves — 353319 691420 31870 226 216287273560 56299 259 257 60 — — — — — —
202029 MLB MLEChicago Cubs — 3634 4001 270 62 118176206382 88120 196 174 4 — — — — — —
202130 MLB MLE2 teams — 156150 31932 5560 100 207237347584 140316 363 248 54 — — — — — —
202231 AAA MLE2 teams — 129120 15300 8500 151 125180150330 25210 396 156 -8 — — — — — —
202332 AAA MLEDurham Bulls — 113102 14211 9421 80 137218206424 69215 378 189 14 — — — — — —
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 32832986 7131093924 2307074 32472 239294326620 87303 227 276 54 -106 +36 +73 +13 +71 8.8
/ 162G— A+C — 650591 1422285 461401 6414 240297330627 90304 227 276 54 -21 +7 +14 +2 +14 1.7
Career— MLE — 64365865 13782048239 454153713 815168 235291318609 83310 247 248 54 -106 +36 +73 +13 +71 8.8
/ 162G— MLE — 650592 1392184 461551 8217 235291318608 83310 247 248 54 -21 +7 +14 +2 +14 1.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2023 AAADurham Bulls · 113 PAwOBA .252 → .189 (−63)K% 31.0% → 36.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA30.97%÷1.009×1.200——36.85%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.39%÷1.011×0.690—×0.9427.96%
HBP% /PA0.88%—×0.940—×0.9420.78%
Singles /BIP20.00%÷1.006×0.930×0.950×0.94216.54%
Doubles /BIP5.00%÷1.020×0.830×0.950×0.9423.64%
Triples /BIP1.67%÷1.003×0.970×0.950×0.9421.44%
Home runs /BIP1.67%÷1.137×0.700—×0.9420.97%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 127, 1B 101, 2B 104, 3B 101, K 102, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 27.2 → −5.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .252 → .189; ISO .084 → .061; BABIP .267 → .215. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAASt. Paul Saints · 106 PAwOBA .228 → .168 (−60)K% 29.2% → 35.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA29.25%÷0.981×1.200——35.76%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.43%÷1.012×0.690—×0.9526.12%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×0.9520.00%
Singles /BIP21.54%÷1.000×0.930×0.966×0.95218.43%
Doubles /BIP6.15%÷1.079×0.830×0.966×0.9524.36%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.970×0.966×0.9520.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.881×0.700—×0.9520.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 100, 2B 116, 3B 130, K 96, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.966.

Result: wOBA .228 → .168; ISO .042 → .028; BABIP .277 → .228. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAACharlotte Knights · 21 PAwOBA .209 → .151 (−58)K% 38.1% → 45.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA38.10%÷1.011×1.200——45.22%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.52%÷1.053×0.690—×0.9626.00%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×0.9620.00%
Singles /BIP18.18%÷0.986×0.930—×0.96216.49%
Doubles /BIP9.09%÷1.128×0.830—×0.9626.43%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.020×0.920—×0.9620.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.190×0.700—×0.9620.00%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 138, 1B 97, 2B 126, 3B 104, K 102, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .209 → .151; ISO .053 → .035; BABIP .273 → .229. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 AAALouisville Bats · 547 PAwOBA .285 → .255 (−30)K% 18.6% → 23.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.65%÷0.961×1.200——23.28%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.95%÷1.075×0.690—×1.0504.68%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×1.0500.00%
Singles /BIP25.12%÷1.000×0.930×0.996×1.05024.43%
Doubles /BIP4.48%÷0.960×0.830×0.996×1.0504.05%
Triples /BIP1.00%÷0.900×0.970×0.996×1.0501.12%
Home runs /BIP1.49%÷1.038×0.840—×1.0501.27%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 100, 2B 92, 3B 80, K 92, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.

Result: wOBA .285 → .255; ISO .087 → .079; BABIP .310 → .299. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2012 A+Bakersfield Blaze · 392 PAwOBA .372 → .314 (−58)K% 17.9% → 24.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA17.86%÷0.999×1.340——23.96%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.50%÷0.977×0.710—×1.0129.19%
HBP% /PA0.51%—×0.790—×1.0120.41%
Singles /BIP30.34%÷0.976×0.910×0.986×1.01228.25%
Doubles /BIP6.74%÷0.970×0.820×0.986×1.0125.69%
Triples /BIP3.37%÷0.900×0.760×0.986×1.0122.84%
Home runs /BIP0.37%÷1.216×0.920—×1.0120.29%

Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 143, 1B 95, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 100, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.

Result: wOBA .372 → .314; ISO .116 → .095; BABIP .404 → .367. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2012 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 213 PAwOBA .352 → .328 (−23)K% 20.2% → 23.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.19%÷1.029×1.220——23.94%
BB% (unintentional) /PA16.43%÷1.016×0.680—×1.04211.46%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.840—×1.0420.00%
Singles /BIP30.30%÷0.960×0.920×1.044×1.04231.58%
Doubles /BIP3.03%÷0.940×0.910×1.044×1.0423.19%
Triples /BIP3.79%÷1.026×0.880×1.044×1.0423.53%
Home runs /BIP0.76%÷1.569×0.800—×1.0420.40%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 214, 1B 92, 2B 88, 3B 105, K 106, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.044.

Result: wOBA .352 → .328; ISO .097 → .090; BABIP .371 → .382. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2011 ADayton Dragons · 610 PAwOBA .309 → .254 (−55)K% 21.8% → 29.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.80%÷0.997×1.360——29.74%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.52%÷0.999×0.690—×1.0155.98%
HBP% /PA0.16%—×0.780—×1.0150.13%
Singles /BIP29.50%÷0.985×0.920×1.003×1.01528.05%
Doubles /BIP4.32%÷1.015×0.830×1.003×1.0153.59%
Triples /BIP2.16%÷1.150×0.910×1.003×1.0151.74%
Home runs /BIP0.72%÷1.221×0.800—×1.0150.48%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 144, 1B 97, 2B 103, 3B 130, K 99, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.003.

Result: wOBA .309 → .254; ISO .082 → .061; BABIP .360 → .333. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2010 ROKBillings Mustangs · 316 PAwOBA .365 → .261 (−104)K% 17.7% → 25.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA17.72%÷1.000×1.440——25.52%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.86%÷1.000×0.610—×0.9955.38%
HBP% /PA0.95%—×0.720—×0.9950.68%
Singles /BIP28.63%÷1.000×0.820×0.995×0.99523.25%
Doubles /BIP5.73%÷1.000×0.720×0.995×0.9954.08%
Triples /BIP4.41%÷1.000×0.720×0.995×0.9953.14%
Home runs /BIP0.88%÷1.000×0.750—×0.9950.66%

Factors used: league row PIO. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.

Result: wOBA .365 → .261; ISO .138 → .094; BABIP .388 → .304. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .