Travis Jankowski

LF Syracuse Mets

Age 36 L/R 6'3" / 195 lbs AAA H -5% Svc 12.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

AAAExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2023	32	MLBTEX	287	.263/.359/.332	1	19	100	0.7
2024	33	MLBTEX	207	.200/.266/.242	1	11	47	-0.5
2025	34	AAANYM	75	.231/.333/.338	2	4	47	—	.188/.253/.246
2025	34	MLBNYM	50	.244/.292/.289	0	2	64	-0.2
2026	35	No MLB games played
2027PROJ10% MLB	36	MLBNYM	11	.223/.292/.296	0	0	73	-0.0
2028PROJ	37	MLBNYM	80	.212/.279/.272	0	2	62	-0.9

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.1 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service12.000First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$1M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2023-2025

Speed90

xwOBA22

Bat Spd19

Barrel%10

Avg EV10

CompsRamon Valdez (age 35) · Jarrod Dyson (age 36) · Pete Orr (age 35)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†73

AVG/OBP/SLG.223 / .292 / .296

PA11

HR0

K%18

BB%9

BABIP282

ISO73

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 30

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2023-2025

CONTACT40

xAVG

290.234

POWER30

Barrel%

100.3

Avg EV

1085.3

Bat Spd

1968.0

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED60

Sprint

9029.3

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2015

Service 12.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	—	—	—
Totals		$1M		$-0.1M	-$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2012	21	A	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	256	238	67	10	4	1	13	44	1	17	7	282	321	370	691	88	337	17	5	306	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	A+	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	556	493	141	19	6	1	54	96	2	71	14	286	359	355	714	69	350	17	10	323	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	AA	San Antonio Missions	—	112	100	24	4	1	0	8	14	1	10	2	240	303	300	603	60	273	12	7	270	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	A+	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	25	18	3	1	0	0	6	3	0	1	0	167	375	222	597	56	200	12	24	291	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	ROK	AZL Padres	—	16	14	6	1	0	0	1	1	1	2	1	429	500	500	1.000	71	462	6	6	453	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	96	90	19	2	2	2	4	24	0	2	1	211	245	344	589	133	266	25	4	255	61	-4	+0	-1	+2	+2	-0.1
2015	24	AAA	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	113	97	38	6	2	0	13	10	1	9	3	392	468	495	963	103	432	9	12	424	148	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	AA	San Antonio Missions	—	321	282	89	11	5	1	36	40	1	23	8	316	395	401	796	85	365	12	11	359	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	383	335	82	13	2	2	42	100	2	30	12	245	332	313	645	69	343	26	11	297	90	-5	+1	+4	+1	+8	1.0
2017	26	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	87	75	14	2	0	0	9	28	1	4	0	187	282	213	496	27	298	32	10	235	47	-5	+1	+0	-3	+2	-0.5
2017	26	AAA	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	157	139	37	5	1	0	18	28	0	8	1	266	350	317	667	50	333	18	11	310	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	ROK	AZL Padres 2	—	22	18	5	2	0	0	2	5	2	1	1	278	409	389	798	111	385	23	9	370	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	387	347	90	12	3	4	37	73	1	24	7	259	332	346	678	86	319	19	10	308	97	-1	+2	+5	-5	+8	0.9
2018	27	AAA	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	94	80	29	4	0	1	11	21	2	4	3	362	452	450	902	88	483	22	12	405	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	28	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	24	22	4	0	0	0	2	4	0	2	2	182	250	182	432		222	17	8	209	28	-2	-0	+1	+1	+1	-0.1
2019	28	AAA	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	183	160	50	6	0	0	21	32	1	7	2	312	396	350	746	37	388	17	11	344	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	29	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	17	15	1	0	0	0	2	7	0	2	1	67	176	67	243		125	41	12	135	-24	-3	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.2
2021	30	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	157	131	33	6	2	1	22	29	1	5	0	252	361	351	712	99	317	18	14	324	93	-1	+1	+1	+1	+3	0.5
2021	30	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	72	56	17	4	0	0	15	9	0	4	3	304	451	375	826	71	362	12	21	380	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	31	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	64	55	9	0	0	0	8	10	1	3	0	164	281	164	445		200	16	12	226	40	-5	+1	+1	-2	+1	-0.5
2022	31	AAA	Syracuse Mets	—	165	131	31	3	1	1	31	36	1	15	1	237	384	298	682	61	319	22	19	324	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	32	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	287	247	65	12	1	1	35	42	2	19	1	263	359	332	691	69	311	15	12	318	100	+0	+3	+0	-3	+6	0.7
2024	33	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	207	190	38	5	0	1	12	44	5	11	1	200	266	242	508	42	255	21	6	239	47	-13	+2	+4	-2	+4	-0.5
2025	34	MLB	New York Mets	—	50	45	11	2	0	0	3	12	0	2	0	244	292	289	581	44	324	24	6	256	64	-2	+0	-0	-1	+1	-0.2
2025	34	AAA	Syracuse Mets	—	75	65	15	1	0	2	10	12	0	4	1	231	333	338	672	108	255	16	13	310	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1759	1552	366	54	10	11	176	373	13	104	25	236	318	305	623	69	303	21	10	287	80	-42	+11	+15	-12	+38	1.0
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2012	21	A MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	256	242	62	8	4	1	9	58	1	17	7	256	286	335	620	79	320	23	4	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	A+ MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	556	506	132	17	4	1	41	126	2	71	14	261	319	316	635	55	335	23	7	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	—	112	103	25	4	1	0	5	18	1	10	2	243	284	301	585	58	277	16	4	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	A+ MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	25	20	3	1	0	0	4	4	0	1	0	150	292	200	492	50	180	16	16	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	ROK MLE	AZL Padres	—	16	14	5	1	0	0	1	1	1	2	1	357	438	429	866	71	358	6	6	334	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	96	90	19	2	2	2	4	24	0	2	1	211	245	344	589	133	266	25	4	258	61	-4	+0	-1	+2	+2	-0.1
2015	24	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	113	100	38	6	2	0	10	13	1	9	3	380	441	480	921	100	412	12	9	387	148	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	—	321	294	87	10	4	1	24	51	1	23	8	296	351	367	718	71	356	16	7	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	383	336	83	14	2	2	42	100	2	30	12	247	334	318	653	71	343	26	11	301	90	-5	+1	+4	+1	+8	1.0
2017	26	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	87	75	14	2	0	0	9	28	1	4	0	187	282	213	496	27	298	32	10	238	47	-5	+1	+0	-3	+2	-0.5
2017	26	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	157	143	33	4	1	0	14	36	0	8	1	231	299	273	572	42	305	23	9	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	ROK MLE	AZL Padres 2	—	22	19	3	1	0	0	1	7	2	1	1	158	273	211	483	53	282	32	5	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	387	347	92	13	3	4	37	73	1	24	7	265	338	354	692	89	319	19	10	312	97	-1	+2	+5	-5	+8	0.9
2018	27	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	94	83	25	3	0	1	8	28	2	4	3	301	376	373	750	72	432	30	9	326	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	28	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	24	22	4	0	0	0	2	4	0	2	2	182	250	182	432		222	17	8	210	28	-2	-0	+1	+1	+1	-0.1
2019	28	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	183	167	43	5	0	0	14	43	1	7	2	257	319	287	606	30	339	23	8	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	29	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	17	15	1	0	0	0	2	7	0	2	1	67	176	67	243		125	41	12	133	-24	-3	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.2
2021	30	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	157	136	33	6	2	1	18	29	1	5	0	243	335	338	674	96	317	18	11	305	93	-1	+1	+1	+1	+3	0.5
2021	30	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	72	62	17	4	0	0	9	11	0	4	3	274	366	339	705	65	334	15	12	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	31	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	64	55	9	0	0	0	8	10	1	3	0	164	281	164	445		200	16	12	227	40	-5	+1	+1	-2	+1	-0.5
2022	31	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	—	165	143	32	3	1	1	20	45	1	15	1	224	323	280	603	56	310	27	12	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	32	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	287	247	65	12	1	1	35	42	2	19	1	263	359	332	691	69	311	15	12	316	100	+0	+3	+0	-3	+6	0.7
2024	33	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	207	190	38	5	0	1	12	44	5	11	1	200	266	242	508	42	255	21	6	238	47	-13	+2	+4	-2	+4	-0.5
2025	34	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	50	45	11	2	0	0	3	12	0	2	0	244	292	289	581	44	324	24	6	263	64	-2	+0	-0	-1	+1	-0.2
2025	34	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	—	75	69	13	1	0	1	6	15	0	4	1	188	253	246	500	58	233	20	8	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	21	A MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	256	242	62	8	4	1	9	58	1	17	7	256	286	335	620	79	328	23	4	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	21	A RAW	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	256	238	67	10	4	1	13	44	1	17	7	282	321	370	691	88	337	17	5	306	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	A+ MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	556	506	132	17	4	1	41	126	2	71	14	261	319	316	635	55	342	23	7	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	A+ RAW	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	556	493	141	19	6	1	54	96	2	71	14	286	359	355	714	69	350	17	10	323	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	AA MLE	3 teams	—	153	137	32	5	1	0	10	24	2	13	3	234	295	285	580	51	278	16	7	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	AA RAW	3 teams	—	153	132	33	6	1	0	15	18	2	13	3	250	336	311	646	61	284	12	10	293	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	AA MLE	3 teams	—	530	484	144	18	8	3	38	88	2	34	12	298	351	386	738	89	358	17	7	324	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	AA RAW	3 teams	—	530	469	146	19	9	3	53	74	2	34	12	311	384	409	793	98	364	14	10	354	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	383	336	83	14	2	2	42	100	2	30	12	247	334	318	653	71	346	26	11	301	90	-5	+1	+4	+1	+8	1.0
2016	25	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	—	383	335	82	13	2	2	42	100	2	30	12	245	332	313	645	69	343	26	11	297	90	-5	+1	+4	+1	+8	1.0
2017	26	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	266	237	51	8	1	0	24	71	3	13	2	215	295	257	553	42	307	27	9	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	266	232	56	9	1	0	29	61	3	13	2	241	333	289	622	47	327	23	11	290	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	481	430	117	16	3	5	45	101	3	28	10	272	345	358	703	86	346	21	9	315	99	-0	+2	+5	-5	+10	1.2
2018	27	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	481	427	119	16	3	5	48	94	3	28	10	279	356	365	721	87	348	20	10	327	99	-0	+2	+5	-5	+10	1.2
2019	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	207	189	47	5	0	0	16	47	1	9	4	249	311	275	586	26	329	23	8	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	28	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	207	182	54	6	0	0	23	36	1	9	4	297	379	330	708	33	367	17	11	328	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	29	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	17	15	1	0	0	0	2	7	0	2	1	67	176	67	243		125	41	12	133	-24	-3	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.2
2020	29	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	—	17	15	1	0	0	0	2	7	0	2	1	67	176	67	243		125	41	12	135	-24	-3	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.2
2021	30	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	229	198	50	10	2	1	27	40	1	9	3	253	345	338	684	86	312	17	12	311	97	-1	+1	+1	+1	+5	0.7
2021	30	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	229	187	50	10	2	1	37	38	1	9	3	267	389	358	748	91	331	17	16	341	97	-1	+1	+1	+1	+5	0.7
2022	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	229	198	41	3	1	1	28	55	2	18	1	207	311	247	559	40	282	24	12	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	31	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	229	186	40	3	1	1	39	46	2	18	1	215	355	258	613	43	281	20	17	297	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	32	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	287	247	65	12	1	1	35	42	2	19	1	263	359	332	691	69	311	15	12	316	100	+0	+3	+0	-3	+6	0.7
2023	32	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	—	287	247	65	12	1	1	35	42	2	19	1	263	359	332	691	69	311	15	12	318	100	+0	+3	+0	-3	+6	0.7
2024	33	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	207	190	38	5	0	1	12	44	5	11	1	200	266	242	508	42	255	21	6	238	47	-13	+2	+4	-2	+4	-0.5
2024	33	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	—	207	190	38	5	0	1	12	44	5	11	1	200	266	242	508	42	255	21	6	239	47	-13	+2	+4	-2	+4	-0.5
2025	34	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	125	114	25	3	0	1	9	27	0	6	1	219	276	272	548	53	276	22	7	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	34	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	125	110	26	3	0	2	13	24	0	6	1	236	317	318	635	82	282	19	10	289	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	21	A MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	256	244	62	8	4	1	9	58	1	17	7	254	286	332	618	78	320	23	4	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	A+ MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	556	508	132	17	4	1	41	126	2	71	14	260	319	315	634	55	335	23	7	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	AA MLE	3 teams	—	153	140	32	5	1	0	10	24	2	13	3	229	295	279	574	50	270	16	7	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	AA MLE	3 teams	—	530	485	144	18	8	3	38	88	2	34	12	297	351	386	737	89	352	17	7	324	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	383	336	83	14	2	2	42	100	2	30	12	247	334	318	653	71	343	26	11	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	266	237	51	8	1	0	24	71	3	13	2	215	295	257	553	42	301	27	9	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	481	430	117	16	3	5	45	101	3	28	10	272	345	358	703	86	341	21	9	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	207	188	47	5	0	0	16	47	1	9	4	250	311	277	587	27	325	23	8	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	29	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	17	15	1	0	0	0	2	7	0	2	1	67	176	67	243		125	41	12	133	-24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	30	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	229	199	50	10	2	1	27	40	1	9	3	251	345	337	682	85	322	17	12	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	229	197	41	3	1	1	28	55	2	18	1	208	311	249	560	41	279	24	12	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	32	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	287	248	65	12	1	1	35	42	2	19	1	262	359	331	690	69	311	15	12	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	33	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	207	188	38	5	0	1	12	44	5	11	1	202	266	245	510	43	255	21	6	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	34	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	125	115	25	3	0	1	9	27	0	6	1	217	276	270	546	52	269	22	7	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	33	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	207	188	38	5	0	1	12	44	5	11	1	202	266	245	510	43	255	21	6	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	34	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	125	115	25	3	0	1	9	27	0	6	1	217	276	270	546	52	269	22	7	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	36	MLB MLE	NYM	10%	171	154	35	6	1	1	13	37	2	7	2	230	299	305	604	75	291	22	8	276	73	-5	+1	+1	-2	+4	-0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	36	MLB CTX	NYM	10%	11	10	2	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	223	292	296	588	72	282	18	9	270	73	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	37	MLB MLE	NYM	100%	80	73	15	3	0	0	6	18	1	2	0	218	285	281	566	62	281	22	8	260	62	-4	+0	-7	-1	+2	-0.9
2028	37	MLB CTX	NYM	100%	80	73	14	2	0	0	6	18	1	2	0	212	279	272	551	60	272	22	8	254	62	-4	+0	-7	-1	+2	-0.9
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1839	1625	380	56	10	11	182	391	14	106	25	234	316	301	617	67	301	21	10	285	80	-45	+11	+8	-13	+40	0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	574	135	20	4	4	64	138	5	37	9	235	317	305	622	70	303	21	10	285	80	-16	+4	+3	-5	+14	0.0
Career	—	MLE		—	4112	3692	925	131	27	18	352	871	28	287	73	251	320	315	636	65	322	21	9	286	80	-49	+12	+8	-14	+42	-0.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	584	146	21	4	3	56	138	4	45	12	250	320	315	635	65	321	21	9	286	80	-16	+4	+3	-5	+14	-0.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAASyracuse Mets · 75 PAwOBA .303 → .238 (−65)K% 16.0% → 19.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.00%	÷0.981	×1.200	—	—	19.58%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.33%	÷1.005	×0.690	—	×0.940	8.60%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.940	0.00%
Singles /BIP	22.64%	÷0.975	×0.930	×1.050	×0.940	21.31%
Doubles /BIP	1.89%	÷1.022	×0.830	×1.050	×0.940	1.51%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.959	×0.970	×1.050	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.77%	÷1.167	×0.700	—	×0.940	2.13%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 133, 1B 95, 2B 104, 3B 92, K 96, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 34 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .303 → .238; ISO .108 → .065; BABIP .255 → .233. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAASyracuse Mets · 165 PAwOBA .317 → .269 (−47)K% 21.8% → 27.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.82%	÷0.961	×1.200	—	—	27.24%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	18.79%	÷1.019	×0.690	—	×0.962	12.24%
HBP% /PA	0.61%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	0.55%
Singles /BIP	27.37%	÷0.953	×0.930	×1.050	×0.962	26.97%
Doubles /BIP	3.16%	÷0.951	×0.830	×1.050	×0.962	2.78%
Triples /BIP	1.05%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.050	×0.962	1.03%
Home runs /BIP	1.05%	÷1.033	×0.700	—	×0.962	0.69%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 91, 2B 90, 3B 100, K 92, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .317 → .269; ISO .061 → .052; BABIP .319 → .310. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 72 PAwOBA .367 → .323 (−45)K% 12.5% → 15.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.50%	÷0.992	×1.200	—	—	15.13%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	19.44%	÷1.061	×0.690	—	×0.972	12.29%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	0.00%
Singles /BIP	27.66%	÷1.016	×0.930	×1.050	×0.972	25.83%
Doubles /BIP	8.51%	÷0.952	×0.830	×1.050	×0.972	7.57%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.920	×1.050	×0.972	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.957	×0.700	—	×0.972	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 103, 2B 90, 3B 130, K 98, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .367 → .323; ISO .071 → .071; BABIP .362 → .334. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 183 PAwOBA .337 → .273 (−64)K% 17.5% → 23.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.49%	÷0.965	×1.290	—	—	23.37%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.48%	÷1.050	×0.710	—	×0.992	7.70%
HBP% /PA	0.55%	—	×0.980	—	×0.992	0.53%
Singles /BIP	34.38%	÷1.033	×0.900	×1.025	×0.992	30.44%
Doubles /BIP	4.69%	÷1.044	×0.810	×1.025	×0.992	3.70%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.810	×1.025	×0.992	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.950	×0.780	—	×0.992	0.00%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 107, 2B 109, 3B 80, K 93, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.025.

Result: wOBA .337 → .273; ISO .037 → .029; BABIP .388 → .339. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 94 PAwOBA .395 → .326 (−69)K% 22.3% → 29.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.34%	÷0.983	×1.290	—	—	29.32%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.70%	÷0.986	×0.710	—	×1.003	8.45%
HBP% /PA	2.13%	—	×0.980	—	×1.003	2.09%
Singles /BIP	40.68%	÷1.032	×0.900	×1.050	×1.003	37.38%
Doubles /BIP	6.78%	÷1.098	×0.810	×1.050	×1.003	5.27%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.810	×1.050	×1.003	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.69%	÷1.045	×0.780	—	×1.003	1.27%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 106, 2B 120, 3B 130, K 97, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .395 → .326; ISO .087 → .064; BABIP .483 → .432. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 157 PAwOBA .303 → .259 (−44)K% 17.8% → 22.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.83%	÷1.005	×1.290	—	—	22.90%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.46%	÷0.921	×0.710	—	×1.018	9.00%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×1.018	0.00%
Singles /BIP	27.93%	÷1.040	×0.900	×1.050	×1.018	25.84%
Doubles /BIP	4.50%	÷0.983	×0.810	×1.050	×1.018	3.97%
Triples /BIP	0.90%	÷1.049	×0.810	×1.050	×1.018	0.74%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.087	×0.780	—	×1.018	0.00%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 108, 2B 97, 3B 110, K 101, BB 84 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .303 → .259; ISO .050 → .042; BABIP .333 → .305. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 ROKAZL Padres 2 · 22 PAwOBA .362 → .241 (−121)K% 22.7% → 32.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.73%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	32.73%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.09%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×0.940	5.30%
HBP% /PA	9.09%	—	×0.720	—	×0.940	6.15%
Singles /BIP	23.08%	÷1.000	×0.820	—	×0.940	17.79%
Doubles /BIP	15.38%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.940	10.41%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×0.940	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 19.5 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .362 → .241; ISO .111 → .071; BABIP .385 → .282. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AASan Antonio Missions · 321 PAwOBA .349 → .321 (−28)K% 12.5% → 15.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.46%	÷0.963	×1.220	—	—	15.79%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.90%	÷1.010	×0.700	—	×1.012	7.65%
HBP% /PA	0.31%	—	×0.870	—	×1.012	0.27%
Singles /BIP	29.75%	÷0.984	×0.920	×1.050	×1.012	29.57%
Doubles /BIP	4.55%	÷0.989	×0.840	×1.050	×1.012	4.10%
Triples /BIP	2.07%	÷1.124	×0.940	×1.050	×1.012	1.84%
Home runs /BIP	0.41%	÷0.885	×0.800	—	×1.012	0.38%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 77, 1B 97, 2B 98, 3B 125, K 93, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .349 → .321; ISO .085 → .077; BABIP .365 → .356. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Willie Harrislast yr '11 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,743 PA	4.1	2,743	39	106	241	331	351	-11	-2	5.3	6.2
/162	664	9	26	-2.7	-0.5	1.3	pk7: 7
#2Sam Fuld'07-'15 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,535 PA	2.3	1,535	12	67	230*	314*	336*	-10	+29	3.7	4.0
/162	664	5	29	-4.3	+12.7	1.6	pk7: 4
#3Mike Felder'85-'94 * career totals — 10 seasons, 2,497 PA	3.8	2,497	14	161	247*	300*	340*	-18	+17	0.9	2.8
/162	664	4	43	-4.9	+4.4	0.2	pk7: 5
#4Eric Young Jr.last yr '18 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,925 PA	2.9	1,925	13	161	245	312	332	-11	-8	1.2	1.6
/162	664	4	56	-3.9	-2.7	0.4	pk7: 2
#5James Mouton'94-'01 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,795 PA	2.7	1,795	18	109	235*	314*	329*	-11	-0	0.7	1.0
/162	664	7	40	-4.2	-0.1	0.3	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 10 projected seasons	2.7	1,809	12	102	238	316	308	-21	+10	-0.1	0.7
/162	664	4	38	-7.5	+3.6	-0.0	pk7: 1
#6Jimmy Stewart'63-'73 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,602 PA	2.4	1,602	8	38	235*	309*	329*	-1	+2	-0.2	0.5
/162	664	3	16	-0.4	+0.7	-0.1	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Travis Jankowski (OGILVIE)	36	40	30	60	60	228/296/303	74	291	1	5	22%	8%	73	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Ramon Valdez 2012 · AAA	35	48	39→30	54→55	46	230/292/317	87	277	6	18	19%	6%	74	-0.5	246/319/322	76	279	5	22	13%	7%	86	+0.3	256/334/311	55	287	2	26	11%	7%	85	+0.1
✕Jarrod Dyson 2021 · MLB	36	45→55	41→45	60→70	54	219/295/307	88	255	9	34	18%	10%	74	-0.6	222/285/329	107	275	9	25	21%	8%	74	-0.5	200/254/279	78	263	0	40	22%	7%	51	-0.6
✕Pete Orr 2014 · MLB	35	46→45	39→45	52→55	40	221/256/313	92	273	6	18	21%	4%	59	-1.7	226/258/311	85	287	6	15	23%	3%	59	-1.6	229/258/301	72	292	4	15	22%	3%	54	-1.3
✕Daniel Nunez 2019 · AAA	37	48→49	36→30	44→50	47	226/284/288	62	269	4	11	17%	6%	64	-1.3	210/271/300	90	282	7	12	27%	7%	63	-1.4	149/212/183	34	215	0	9	29%	6%	12	-1.0
✕Craig Gentry 2018 · MLB	34	44→54	39→40	52→60	46	213/273/296	83	271	6	21	23%	7%	62	-1.4	236/296/338	102	295	8	23	22%	7%	80	-0.1	265/317/340	75	326	3	43	18%	7%	88	+0.1
✕Andrew Romine 2021 · MLB	35	46→55	42→40	55	43	225/272/327	102	272	10	19	21%	5%	69	-0.9	231/281/321	90	298	8	9	24%	6%	70	-0.8	235/280/294	59	309	3	3	24%	5%	61	-0.8
✕Munenori Kawasaki 2016 · MLB	35	50→54	35→30	47→50	51	231/296/292	61	279	2	11	17%	8%	70	-0.9	226/291/300	74	282	5	20	20%	8%	70	-0.9	224/291/274	50	284	1	28	20%	8%	64	-0.9
✕Freddy Guzman 2017 · AAA	36	47→57	37→45	57→70	47	225/277/296	72	279	4	37	21%	7%	63	-1.3	230/295/314	84	289	6	30	21%	8%	74	-0.5	235/309/283	48	295	0	49	18%	10%	70	-0.3
✕Don Kelly 2016 · MLB	36	47→57	40→45	51→55	57	226/308/321	95	257	8	11	15%	10%	81	-0.1	196/261/278	82	243	7	7	21%	8%	54	-2.0	153/214/194	41	195	2	2	21%	7%	15	-2.1
✕Manny Alexander 2007 · MLB	36	45→47	41→45	51→55	45	218/263/313	95	252	8	18	18%	5%	62	-1.4	209/249/298	89	253	7	11	20%	5%	53	-2.1	187/216/254	66	232	3	5	20%	3%	28	-2.1
✕Tony Womack 2006 · MLB	36	56→63	37→40	58→60	47	264/300/331	67	295	4	30	12%	5%	79	-0.2	252/306/350	98	285	9	22	14%	7%	86	+0.3	273/339/349	76	302	6	21	11%	9%	97	+0.2
✕Miguel Flores 2007 · AAA	36	54→58	37→30	56→55	53	254/309/327	73	271	4	20	8%	7%	82	-0.0	258/307/329	71	278	5	18	9%	6%	82	-0.0	271/318/332	62	289	4	19	8%	6%	84	+0.1
✕Daniel Hinojosa 2019 · AAA	35	46	39→40	49→55	43	218/276/297	79	299	6	11	28%	7%	63	-1.3	207/259/340	133	322	16	10	39%	6%	68	-1.0	127/163/250	124	192	20	5	47%	4%	9	-1.0
✕Grégor Blanco 2019 · MLB	35	46→56	41→45	56→60	48	223/287/326	104	289	8	18	25%	8%	74	-0.5	212/276/340	128	270	14	13	26%	8%	74	-0.5	188/257/314	126	232	16	13	26%	8%	60	-1.1
✕Robinson Cancel 2012 · AAA	36	49	39→45	49→50	46	233/284/320	87	285	6	14	20%	6%	72	-0.7	242/290/355	113	285	12	16	19%	6%	82	-0.0	255/302/364	110	293	13	17	17%	6%	85	+0.1
✕Drew Maggi 2023 · AAA	34	38→48	40→45	54→60	41	185/260/274	89	272	7	23	33%	7%	53	-2.1	190/250/286	96	261	9	15	29%	6%	52	-2.2	155/205/234	78	202	9	9	28%	4%	20	-1.0
✕Sergio Palafox 2015 · AAA	35	47	37→40	49→45	43	225/264/298	73	264	5	11	17%	4%	58	-1.7	226/273/321	95	269	8	11	19%	5%	68	-1.0	215/255/278	63	250	4	5	15%	4%	48	-0.4
✕Mike McCoy 2015 · MLB	34	42→52	37→40	52→60	51	197/268/268	70	243	5	22	20%	8%	55	-2.0	196/271/276	80	261	6	15	25%	8%	57	-1.8	167/256/214	47	233	2	17	26%	9%	36	-1.5
✕Elliot Soto 2024 · AAA	34	40→50	38→40	56→50	40	192/250/273	80	279	5	16	32%	6%	49	-2.4	194/260/274	80	280	6	19	30%	8%	53	-2.1	173/245/230	57	248	4	23	30%	8%	35	-2.7
✕Shane Robinson 2019 · MLB	34	48→56	37→45	58→55	46	227/269/301	74	260	4	19	14%	5%	61	-1.5	228/285/328	100	252	11	14	14%	7%	74	-0.5	227/291/312	85	242	11	11	12%	8%	72	-0.4

Travis Jankowski

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps