Mike McCoy

Pos2B

B/TR/R

Born1981-04-02

Age (2027)46

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

AAALAST SEASON 2015

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2013	32	AAATOR	430	.245/.357/.327	4	29	63	—	.226/.302/.295
2014	33	AAAPawtucket Red…	312	.181/.298/.247	1	7	20	—	.159/.228/.213
2015	34	AAASD	275	.218/.337/.284	1	9	36	—	.175/.267/.229

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2005	24	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	16	14	2	0	0	0	0	5	1	0	0	143	200	143	343		200	31	0	159	-11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	24	A+	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	332	282	76	13	2	1	36	56	3	18	3	270	358	340	699	71	329	17	11	312	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	25	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	559	474	118	14	2	3	62	98	7	30	9	249	344	306	650	57	308	18	11	296	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	26	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	296	239	59	8	0	3	45	43	1	12	4	247	368	318	686	71	290	15	15	311	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	26	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	85	68	15	3	1	0	14	14	0	1	3	221	354	294	648	74	273	16	16	296	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	27	AAA	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	—	338	292	90	13	3	6	34	47	0	13	4	308	380	435	815	127	341	14	10	353	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	28	AAA	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	—	572	462	142	27	5	2	80	70	3	40	6	307	413	400	813	93	349	12	14	354	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	29	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	90	82	16	4	0	0	8	20	0	5	1	195	267	244	511	49	258	22	9	240	48	-6	+1	+6	+1	+2	0.4
2010	29	AAA	Las Vegas 51s	—	259	213	66	14	1	6	37	31	1	17	2	310	414	469	884	160	337	12	14	384	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	30	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	228	197	39	8	0	2	25	41	1	12	2	198	291	269	561	71	240	18	11	258	59	-11	+2	+4	+4	+5	0.4
2011	30	AAA	Las Vegas 51s	—	186	148	46	6	0	2	33	23	1	14	5	311	440	392	831	81	358	12	18	376	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	31	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	56	52	9	1	0	1	4	6	0	2	1	173	232	250	482	77	178	11	7	223	37	-4	+0	+2	+1	+1	-0.0
2012	31	AAA	Las Vegas 51s	—	349	278	73	13	1	3	58	51	1	21	10	263	392	349	741	86	306	15	17	334	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	32	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	430	355	87	15	1	4	59	68	3	29	7	245	357	327	684	82	293	16	14	310	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	33	AAA	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	312	259	47	14	0	1	41	55	2	7	2	181	298	247	545	66	223	18	13	254	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	34	AAA	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	275	229	50	10	1	1	36	55	5	9	3	218	337	284	621	66	282	20	13	290	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	374	331	64	13	0	3	37	67	1	19	4	193	276	260	536	66	234	18	10	248	54	-20	+2	+11	+7	+8	0.8
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2005	24	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	16	14	2	0	0	0	0	6	1	0	0	143	200	143	343		186	38	0	152	-11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	24	A+ MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	332	292	70	12	2	1	26	80	3	18	3	240	308	305	613	65	305	24	8	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	25	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	559	493	115	13	2	2	43	120	7	30	9	233	304	280	584	47	291	21	8	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	26	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	296	251	58	7	0	3	33	55	1	12	4	231	323	295	618	64	270	19	11	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	26	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	85	73	15	3	1	0	9	17	0	1	3	205	293	274	567	68	250	20	11	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	27	AAA MLE	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	—	338	302	83	11	3	5	24	61	0	13	4	275	328	381	709	106	304	18	7	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	28	AAA MLE	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	—	572	487	136	24	4	2	55	90	3	40	6	279	356	357	713	78	311	16	10	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	29	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	90	82	16	4	0	0	8	20	0	5	1	195	267	244	511	49	258	22	9	239	48	-6	+1	+6	+1	+2	0.4
2010	29	AAA MLE	Las Vegas 51s	—	259	224	60	11	1	5	26	42	1	17	2	268	347	393	739	125	293	16	10	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	30	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	228	198	39	8	0	2	24	41	1	12	2	197	287	268	555	71	240	18	11	255	59	-11	+2	+4	+4	+5	0.4
2011	30	AAA MLE	Las Vegas 51s	—	186	158	44	5	0	1	23	30	1	14	5	278	374	329	703	51	327	16	12	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	31	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	56	52	9	1	0	1	4	6	0	2	1	173	232	250	482	77	178	11	7	223	37	-4	+0	+2	+1	+1	-0.0
2012	31	AAA MLE	Las Vegas 51s	—	349	296	66	10	1	2	40	66	1	21	10	223	318	284	601	61	259	19	11	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	32	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	430	376	85	12	1	4	38	83	3	29	7	226	302	295	597	69	267	19	9	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	33	AAA MLE	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	312	277	44	12	0	1	23	67	2	7	2	159	228	213	441	54	193	21	7	198	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	34	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	275	240	42	8	1	1	25	72	5	9	3	175	267	229	496	54	232	26	9	222	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	24	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	348	306	72	12	2	1	26	86	4	18	3	235	304	297	601	62	318	25	7	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	24	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	348	296	78	13	2	1	36	61	4	18	3	264	351	331	682	68	324	18	10	305	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	25	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	559	493	115	13	2	2	43	120	7	30	9	233	304	280	584	47	305	21	8	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	25	AA RAW	Springfield Cardinals	—	559	474	118	14	2	3	62	98	7	30	9	249	344	306	650	57	308	18	11	296	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	381	324	73	10	1	3	42	72	1	13	7	225	316	290	606	65	280	19	11	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	26	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	381	307	74	11	1	3	59	57	1	13	7	241	365	313	678	72	286	15	15	308	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	27	AAA MLE	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	—	338	302	83	11	3	5	24	61	0	13	4	275	328	381	709	106	321	18	7	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	27	AAA RAW	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	—	338	292	90	13	3	6	34	47	0	13	4	308	380	435	815	127	341	14	10	353	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	28	AAA MLE	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	—	572	487	136	24	4	2	55	90	3	40	6	279	356	357	713	78	330	16	10	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	28	AAA RAW	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	—	572	462	142	27	5	2	80	70	3	40	6	307	413	400	813	93	349	12	14	354	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	349	306	76	15	1	5	34	62	1	22	3	248	326	353	678	105	295	18	10	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	29	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	349	295	82	18	1	6	45	51	1	22	3	278	375	407	782	129	317	15	13	346	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	30	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	414	356	83	13	0	3	47	71	2	26	7	233	326	295	621	62	284	17	11	282	77	-11	+2	+4	+4	+9	0.8
2011	30	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	414	345	85	14	0	4	58	64	2	26	7	246	358	322	680	75	292	15	14	311	77	-11	+2	+4	+4	+9	0.8
2012	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	405	348	75	11	1	3	44	72	1	23	11	216	305	279	584	63	259	18	11	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	31	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	405	330	82	14	1	4	62	57	1	23	11	248	369	333	702	85	285	14	15	318	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	32	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	430	376	85	12	1	4	38	83	3	29	7	226	302	295	597	69	280	19	9	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	32	AAA RAW	Buffalo Bisons	—	430	355	87	15	1	4	59	68	3	29	7	245	357	327	684	82	293	16	14	310	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	33	AAA MLE	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	312	277	44	12	0	1	23	67	2	7	2	159	228	213	441	54	203	21	7	198	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	33	AAA RAW	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	312	259	47	14	0	1	41	55	2	7	2	181	298	247	545	66	223	18	13	254	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	34	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	275	240	42	8	1	1	25	72	5	9	3	175	267	229	496	54	244	26	9	222	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	34	AAA RAW	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	275	229	50	10	1	1	36	55	5	9	3	218	337	284	621	66	282	20	13	290	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	24	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	348	315	72	12	2	1	26	86	4	18	3	229	304	289	592	60	300	25	7	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	25	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	559	504	115	13	2	2	43	120	7	30	9	228	304	274	578	46	291	21	8	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	381	335	73	10	1	3	42	72	1	13	7	218	316	281	597	63	266	19	11	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	27	AAA MLE	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	—	338	311	83	11	3	5	24	61	0	13	4	267	328	370	698	103	304	18	7	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	28	AAA MLE	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	—	572	509	136	24	4	2	55	90	3	40	6	267	356	342	698	75	311	16	10	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	349	311	76	15	1	5	34	62	1	22	3	244	326	347	673	103	284	18	10	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	30	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	414	362	83	13	0	3	47	71	2	26	7	229	326	290	616	61	279	17	11	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	405	357	75	11	1	3	44	72	1	23	11	210	305	272	577	62	248	18	11	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	32	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	430	386	85	12	1	4	38	83	3	29	7	220	302	288	590	67	267	19	9	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	33	AAA MLE	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	312	284	44	12	0	1	23	67	2	7	2	155	228	208	436	53	193	21	7	198	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	34	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	275	243	42	8	1	1	25	72	5	9	3	173	267	226	493	53	232	26	9	222	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	374	331	64	13	0	3	37	67	1	19	4	193	276	260	536	66	234	18	10	248	68	-20	+2	+11	+7	+8	0.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	575	111	23	0	5	64	116	2	33	7	193	276	259	535	66	233	18	10	248	68	-35	+4	+19	+12	+14	1.4
Career	—	MLE		—	4383	3815	884	141	16	30	401	856	29	230	62	232	310	301	610	69	288	20	9	269	68	-20	+2	+11	+7	+8	0.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	566	130	21	2	4	59	127	4	34	9	230	306	295	601	65	286	20	9	269	68	-35	+4	+19	+12	+14	1.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2015 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 275 PAwOBA .284 → .222 (−63)K% 20.0% → 26.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.00%	÷0.980	×1.290	—	—	26.34%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.09%	÷0.972	×0.710	—	×0.940	8.99%
HBP% /PA	1.82%	—	×0.980	—	×0.940	1.67%
Singles /BIP	21.84%	÷1.017	×0.900	×1.008	×0.940	18.30%
Doubles /BIP	5.75%	÷0.970	×0.810	×1.008	×0.940	4.54%
Triples /BIP	0.57%	÷1.150	×0.810	×1.008	×0.940	0.38%
Home runs /BIP	0.57%	÷0.919	×0.780	—	×0.940	0.46%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 103, 2B 94, 3B 130, K 96, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 34 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.

Result: wOBA .284 → .222; ISO .066 → .051; BABIP .282 → .232. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 312 PAwOBA .246 → .198 (−48)K% 17.6% → 21.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.63%	÷0.980	×1.200	—	—	21.58%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.18%	÷1.084	×0.690	—	×0.942	7.30%
HBP% /PA	0.64%	—	×0.940	—	×0.942	0.57%
Singles /BIP	15.69%	÷0.976	×0.930	×0.985	×0.942	13.86%
Doubles /BIP	6.86%	÷0.937	×0.830	×0.985	×0.942	5.64%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.104	×0.970	×0.985	×0.942	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.49%	÷1.240	×0.840	—	×0.942	0.31%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 148, 1B 95, 2B 87, 3B 121, K 96, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 27.2 → −5.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.985.

Result: wOBA .246 → .198; ISO .066 → .056; BABIP .223 → .193. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 AAABuffalo Bisons · 430 PAwOBA .303 → .262 (−41)K% 15.8% → 19.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.81%	÷0.987	×1.200	—	—	19.23%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.72%	÷1.015	×0.690	—	×0.952	8.88%
HBP% /PA	0.70%	—	×0.940	—	×0.952	0.62%
Singles /BIP	23.34%	÷0.976	×0.930	×1.041	×0.952	22.06%
Doubles /BIP	5.23%	÷1.094	×0.830	×1.041	×0.952	3.93%
Triples /BIP	0.35%	÷0.900	×0.970	×1.041	×0.952	0.37%
Home runs /BIP	1.39%	÷0.853	×0.840	—	×0.952	1.31%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 71, 1B 95, 2B 119, 3B 80, K 97, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.041.

Result: wOBA .303 → .262; ISO .082 → .074; BABIP .293 → .267. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2012 AAALas Vegas 51s · 349 PAwOBA .331 → .271 (−60)K% 14.6% → 18.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.61%	÷1.004	×1.290	—	—	18.77%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.62%	÷0.985	×0.710	—	×0.962	11.53%
HBP% /PA	0.29%	—	×0.980	—	×0.962	0.27%
Singles /BIP	24.67%	÷0.985	×0.900	×1.002	×0.962	21.72%
Doubles /BIP	5.73%	÷1.085	×0.810	×1.002	×0.962	4.12%
Triples /BIP	0.44%	÷0.994	×0.810	×1.002	×0.962	0.35%
Home runs /BIP	1.32%	÷1.059	×0.780	—	×0.962	0.94%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 97, 2B 117, 3B 99, K 101, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.

Result: wOBA .331 → .271; ISO .086 → .066; BABIP .306 → .259. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2011 AAALas Vegas 51s · 186 PAwOBA .368 → .315 (−53)K% 12.4% → 16.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.37%	÷0.992	×1.290	—	—	16.08%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	17.74%	÷0.998	×0.710	—	×0.972	12.27%
HBP% /PA	0.54%	—	×0.980	—	×0.972	0.51%
Singles /BIP	30.40%	÷0.974	×0.900	×1.050	×0.972	28.66%
Doubles /BIP	4.80%	÷1.082	×0.810	×1.050	×0.972	3.67%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.123	×0.810	×1.050	×0.972	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.60%	÷1.200	×0.780	—	×0.972	1.01%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 140, 1B 95, 2B 116, 3B 125, K 98, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .368 → .315; ISO .081 → .060; BABIP .358 → .327. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2010 AAALas Vegas 51s · 259 PAwOBA .377 → .315 (−62)K% 12.0% → 16.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	11.97%	÷0.959	×1.290	—	—	16.11%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.29%	÷0.988	×0.710	—	×0.982	10.08%
HBP% /PA	0.39%	—	×0.980	—	×0.982	0.37%
Singles /BIP	24.73%	÷0.985	×0.900	×1.024	×0.982	22.71%
Doubles /BIP	7.69%	÷1.077	×0.810	×1.024	×0.982	5.82%
Triples /BIP	0.55%	÷1.150	×0.810	×1.024	×0.982	0.39%
Home runs /BIP	3.30%	÷1.024	×0.780	—	×0.982	2.47%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 97, 2B 115, 3B 130, K 92, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.024.

Result: wOBA .377 → .315; ISO .160 → .125; BABIP .337 → .293. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2009 AAAColorado Springs Sky Sox · 572 PAwOBA .352 → .311 (−41)K% 12.2% → 15.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.24%	÷1.000	×1.290	—	—	15.79%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.81%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×0.992	9.73%
HBP% /PA	0.52%	—	×0.980	—	×0.992	0.51%
Singles /BIP	27.55%	÷1.000	×0.900	×1.021	×0.992	25.12%
Doubles /BIP	6.89%	÷1.000	×0.810	×1.021	×0.992	5.65%
Triples /BIP	1.28%	÷1.000	×0.810	×1.021	×0.992	1.05%
Home runs /BIP	0.51%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×0.992	0.39%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.021.

Result: wOBA .352 → .311; ISO .093 → .082; BABIP .349 → .311. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2008 AAAColorado Springs Sky Sox · 338 PAwOBA .351 → .303 (−48)K% 13.9% → 17.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.91%	÷1.000	×1.290	—	—	17.94%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.06%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×1.003	7.16%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×1.003	0.00%
Singles /BIP	27.76%	÷1.000	×0.900	×1.008	×1.003	25.26%
Doubles /BIP	5.31%	÷1.000	×0.810	×1.008	×1.003	4.35%
Triples /BIP	1.22%	÷1.000	×0.810	×1.008	×1.003	1.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.45%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.003	1.92%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.

Result: wOBA .351 → .303; ISO .127 → .105; BABIP .341 → .304. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).