Tyler Heineman

C Los Angeles Angels

Age 36 S/R 5'10" / 190 lbs MLB K +5%HR +4% Svc 4.384 · Ctrl thru 2028

Overview

MLB40-MANArb-2FA 2029

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	33	AAABOS	199	.252/.383/.403	6	8	70	—	.206/.301/.312
2024	33	MLBTOR	16	.083/.312/.083	0	0	44	0.5
2025	34	MLBTOR	174	.289/.365/.416	3	2	115	2.0
2026	35	MLBLAA	200	.175/.223/.220	1	1	19	-1.0
2027PROJ	36	MLBLAA	108	.219/.285/.321	2	1	73	0.2
2028PROJ65% MLB	37	MLBLAA	52	.207/.271/.296	1	0	62	-0.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.4 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2028Service4.384First FA2029

2027Arb-2$0.6M2028Arb-3$0.6M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Speed20

Barrel%10

xwOBA10

Avg EV10

Bat Spd10

Form.221/.274/.313 ▼ rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .220/.284/.323

CompsMatt Treanor (age 36) · Jamie Burke (age 36) · Gary Bennett (age 35)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 7373vR 73

AVG/OBP/SLG.219 / .285 / .321

PA108

HR2

K%19

BB%6

BABIP254

ISO124

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$0M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 40 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT40

xAVG

100.209

POWER35

Barrel%

101.7

Avg EV

1083.1

Bat Spd

1065.1

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED40

Sprint

2026.0

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%17%▲14% over 35 PA (60d) · proj 18%

BB%5%▼0% over 35 PA (60d) · proj 6%

ISO.092▼.032 over 31 AB (60d) · proj .104

BABIP.255·.231 over 26 BIP (60d) · proj .256

SLASH.221/.274/.313▼proj .220/.284/.323

Platoon Splits2025-2026 · 206 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

156

—

wRC+

181

◀◀L

wOBA

436

280

◀◀L

ISO

163

090

◀◀L

BABIP

432

284

◀◀L

12.0%

21.8%

◀◀L

BB%

6.0%

6.4%

▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2020

Service 4.384 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-2	$0.6M	+0.2	$0.8M	+$0.2M
2028	Arb-3	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.6M		$-0.7M	+$0.2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2013	22	A+	Lancaster JetHawks	—	428	370	106	23	4	13	32	47	15	2	3	286	367	476	843	189	293	11	7	365	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	306	265	64	15	3	1	24	37	13	3	3	242	334	332	667	91	275	12	8	305	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	AAA	Fresno Grizzlies	—	209	192	52	10	0	3	11	15	1	2	0	271	314	370	684	99	280	7	5	300	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	95	85	27	7	0	0	8	6	1	0	0	318	383	400	783	82	342	6	8	352	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	INTL	Tigres del Licey	—	66	58	11	2	0	0	7	10	1	1	0	190	288	224	512	34	229	15	11	247	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	AAA	Fresno Grizzlies	—	272	239	62	9	2	3	26	44	5	1	2	259	343	351	695	92	307	16	10	317	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	AAA	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	—	228	199	56	19	0	2	20	34	0	2	0	281	347	407	754	126	325	15	9	325	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	AAA	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	—	23	19	4	0	0	0	4	4	0	1	0	211	348	211	558		267	17	17	279	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	AA	Biloxi Shuckers	—	273	224	57	11	0	4	36	32	4	3	1	254	367	357	725	103	275	12	13	324	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	28	AAA	New Orleans Baby Cakes	—	273	244	82	17	3	13	21	35	5	4	0	336	400	590	990	254	352	13	8	426	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	29	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	50	42	8	1	0	0	4	6	2	1	0	190	292	214	506	24	222	12	8	238	48	-3	+0	+2	+1	+1	0.1
2021	30	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	151	129	34	6	0	0	16	29	1	0	3	264	349	310	659	47	333	19	11	298	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	31	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	174	157	34	8	0	0	8	17	5	1	0	217	276	268	544	51	243	10	5	247	52	-10	+0	+11	+3	+4	0.8
2023	32	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	47	38	9	1	1	0	8	8	1	1	0	237	383	316	699	79	300	17	17	331	109	+0	+0	+2	+4	+1	0.7
2023	32	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	165	135	31	4	1	2	25	35	1	5	0	230	354	319	673	89	293	21	15	308	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	33	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	16	12	1	0	0	0	3	6	1	0	0	83	312	83	396		167	38	19	233	44	-1	+0	+2	+4	+0	0.5
2024	33	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	—	199	159	40	4	1	6	28	32	6	8	1	252	383	403	786	151	276	16	14	349	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	34	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	174	149	43	8	1	3	12	31	6	2	0	289	365	416	781	128	342	18	7	339	115	+3	+0	+9	+3	+4	2.0
2026	35	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	200	177	31	3	1	1	5	30	6	1	0	175	223	220	444	45	205	15	2	195	19	-19	+0	+1	+4	+4	-1.0
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	661	575	126	21	3	4	40	98	21	6	0	219	294	287	581	68	257	15	6	260	62	-30	+1	+26	+18	+14	3.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2013	22	A+ MLE	Lancaster JetHawks	—	428	380	92	18	3	11	22	68	15	2	3	242	309	392	701	150	248	16	5	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	306	272	59	14	3	1	17	46	13	3	3	217	295	301	596	85	253	15	6	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	AAA MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	209	195	51	9	0	2	8	19	1	2	0	262	294	338	633	77	272	9	4	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	95	87	24	6	0	0	6	8	1	0	0	276	330	345	675	69	306	8	6	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	AAA MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	272	247	52	7	1	2	19	57	5	1	2	211	280	271	552	61	262	21	7	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	AAA MLE	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	—	228	204	48	14	0	2	15	46	0	2	0	235	288	333	621	98	272	20	7	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	AAA MLE	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	—	23	20	3	0	0	0	3	6	0	1	0	150	261	150	411		237	26	13	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	—	273	238	54	11	0	3	22	42	4	3	1	227	303	311	614	84	244	15	8	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	28	AAA MLE	New Orleans Baby Cakes	—	273	251	67	13	3	9	14	48	5	4	0	267	319	450	769	183	295	18	5	326	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	29	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	50	42	8	1	0	0	4	6	2	1	0	190	292	214	506	24	222	12	8	239	48	-3	+0	+2	+1	+1	0.1
2021	30	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	151	135	31	5	0	0	10	35	1	0	3	230	288	267	554	37	295	23	7	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	31	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	174	157	34	8	0	0	8	17	5	1	0	217	276	268	544	51	243	10	5	246	52	-10	+0	+11	+3	+4	0.8
2023	32	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	47	38	9	1	1	0	8	8	1	1	0	237	383	316	699	79	300	17	17	329	109	+0	+0	+2	+4	+1	0.7
2023	32	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	165	143	27	3	1	2	17	43	1	5	0	189	280	266	545	77	237	26	10	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	33	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	16	12	1	0	0	0	3	6	1	0	0	83	312	83	396		167	38	19	233	44	-1	+0	+2	+4	+0	0.5
2024	33	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	—	199	170	35	4	1	4	17	38	6	8	1	206	301	312	612	106	227	19	9	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	34	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	174	149	43	8	1	3	12	31	6	2	0	289	365	416	781	128	342	18	7	338	115	+3	+0	+9	+3	+4	2.0
2026	35	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	200	177	31	3	1	1	5	30	6	1	0	175	223	220	444	45	205	15	2	196	19	-19	+0	+1	+4	+4	-1.0
2013	22	A+ MLE	Lancaster JetHawks	—	428	380	92	18	3	11	22	68	15	2	3	242	309	392	701	150	263	16	5	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	A+ RAW	Lancaster JetHawks	—	428	370	106	23	4	13	32	47	15	2	3	286	367	476	843	189	293	11	7	365	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	306	272	59	14	3	1	17	46	13	3	3	217	295	301	596	85	256	15	6	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	AA RAW	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	306	265	64	15	3	1	24	37	13	3	3	242	334	332	667	91	275	12	8	305	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	370	344	92	18	0	3	17	32	3	3	0	267	308	346	654	78	287	9	5	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	370	335	90	19	0	3	26	31	3	3	0	269	327	352	679	84	288	8	7	304	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	AAA MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	272	247	52	7	1	2	19	57	5	1	2	211	280	271	552	61	266	21	7	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	AAA RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	—	272	239	62	9	2	3	26	44	5	1	2	259	343	351	695	92	307	16	10	317	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	AAA MLE	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	—	228	204	48	14	0	2	15	46	0	2	0	235	288	333	621	98	289	20	7	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	AAA RAW	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	—	228	199	56	19	0	2	20	34	0	2	0	281	347	407	754	126	325	15	9	325	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	AA MLE	2 teams	—	296	258	57	11	0	3	25	47	4	4	1	221	300	298	598	78	254	16	8	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	AA RAW	2 teams	—	296	243	61	11	0	4	40	36	4	4	1	251	366	346	712	95	274	12	14	321	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	28	AAA MLE	New Orleans Baby Cakes	—	273	251	67	13	3	9	14	48	5	4	0	267	319	450	769	183	299	18	5	326	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	28	AAA RAW	New Orleans Baby Cakes	—	273	244	82	17	3	13	21	35	5	4	0	336	400	590	990	254	352	13	8	426	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	29	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	50	42	8	1	0	0	4	6	2	1	0	190	292	214	506	24	222	12	8	239	48	-3	+0	+2	+1	+1	0.1
2020	29	MLB RAW	San Francisco Giants	—	50	42	8	1	0	0	4	6	2	1	0	190	292	214	506	24	222	12	8	238	48	-3	+0	+2	+1	+1	0.1
2021	30	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	151	135	31	5	0	0	10	35	1	0	3	230	288	267	554	37	304	23	7	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	30	AAA RAW	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	151	129	34	6	0	0	16	29	1	0	3	264	349	310	659	47	333	19	11	298	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	31	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	174	157	34	8	0	0	8	17	5	1	0	217	276	268	544	51	243	10	5	246	52	-10	+0	+11	+3	+4	0.8
2022	31	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	174	157	34	8	0	0	8	17	5	1	0	217	276	268	544	51	243	10	5	247	52	-10	+0	+11	+3	+4	0.8
2023	32	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	212	181	36	4	2	2	25	51	2	6	0	199	303	276	579	77	264	24	12	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	32	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	212	173	40	5	2	2	33	43	2	6	0	231	361	318	678	87	295	20	16	313	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	33	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	215	182	36	4	1	4	20	44	7	8	1	198	301	297	598	99	235	20	9	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	33	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	215	171	41	4	1	6	31	38	7	8	1	240	378	380	758	140	271	18	14	340	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	34	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	174	149	43	8	1	3	12	31	6	2	0	289	365	416	781	128	342	18	7	338	115	+3	+0	+9	+3	+4	2.0
2025	34	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	—	174	149	43	8	1	3	12	31	6	2	0	289	365	416	781	128	342	18	7	339	115	+3	+0	+9	+3	+4	2.0
2026	35	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	200	177	31	3	1	1	5	30	6	1	0	175	223	220	444	45	205	15	2	196	19	-19	+0	+1	+4	+4	-1.0
2026	35	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	—	200	177	31	3	1	1	5	30	6	1	0	175	223	220	444	45	205	15	2	195	19	-19	+0	+1	+4	+4	-1.0
2013	22	A+ MLE	Lancaster JetHawks	—	428	388	92	18	3	11	22	68	15	2	3	237	309	384	693	147	248	16	5	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	306	273	59	14	3	1	17	46	13	3	3	216	295	300	595	84	253	15	6	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	370	347	92	18	0	3	17	32	3	3	0	265	308	343	651	78	283	9	5	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	AAA MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	272	246	52	7	1	2	19	57	5	1	2	211	280	272	553	61	262	21	7	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	AAA MLE	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	—	228	211	48	14	0	2	15	46	0	2	0	227	288	322	610	95	272	20	7	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	AA MLE	2 teams	—	296	265	57	11	0	3	25	47	4	4	1	215	300	291	590	75	243	16	8	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	28	AAA MLE	New Orleans Baby Cakes	—	273	252	67	13	3	9	14	48	5	4	0	266	319	448	767	183	295	18	5	326	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	29	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	50	44	8	1	0	0	4	6	2	1	0	182	292	205	496	23	222	12	8	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	30	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	151	139	31	5	0	0	10	35	1	0	3	223	288	259	547	36	295	23	7	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	31	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	174	159	34	8	0	0	8	17	5	1	0	214	276	264	541	50	243	10	5	246	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	32	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	212	183	36	4	2	2	25	51	2	6	0	197	303	273	576	77	251	24	12	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	33	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	215	186	36	4	1	4	20	44	7	8	1	194	301	290	592	97	223	20	9	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	34	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	174	154	43	8	1	3	12	31	6	2	0	279	365	403	768	123	342	18	7	338	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	35	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	200	187	31	3	1	1	5	30	6	1	0	166	223	209	432	43	205	15	2	196	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	33	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	215	186	36	4	1	4	20	44	7	8	1	194	301	290	592	97	223	20	9	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	34	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	174	154	43	8	1	3	12	31	6	2	0	279	365	403	768	123	342	18	7	338	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	35	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	200	187	31	3	1	1	5	30	6	1	0	166	223	209	432	43	205	15	2	196	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	36	MLB MLE	LAA	100%	175	158	35	6	1	3	11	32	4	2	1	220	286	323	609	104	256	18	6	276	73	-6	+0	+2	+3	+4	0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	36	MLB CTX	LAA	100%	108	97	22	4	1	2	7	20	3	1	0	219	285	321	606	103	254	19	6	275	73	-3	+0	+1	+2	+2	0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	37	MLB MLE	LAA	65%	80	73	15	3	0	1	5	15	2	0	0	208	272	298	570	90	246	19	6	260	62	-4	+0	-6	+1	+2	-0.7
2028	37	MLB CTX	LAA	65%	52	48	10	2	0	1	3	10	1	0	0	207	271	296	567	89	244	19	6	259	62	-2	+0	-4	+1	+1	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	713	623	136	23	3	5	43	108	22	6	0	218	292	289	581	71	256	15	6	260	70	-32	+1	+23	+19	+15	2.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	568	125	21	3	5	39	98	20	5	0	220	293	294	587	74	257	15	6	260	70	-29	+1	+21	+18	+14	2.5
Career	—	MLE		—	3537	3149	723	135	16	44	225	593	79	39	13	230	297	325	622	95	268	17	6	272	70	-37	+1	+22	+22	+18	2.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	579	133	25	3	8	41	109	15	7	2	230	298	325	623	95	268	17	6	272	70	-28	+1	+17	+17	+14	2.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 199 PAwOBA .344 → .272 (−72)K% 16.1% → 19.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.08%	÷1.004	×1.200	—	—	19.21%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.07%	÷1.049	×0.690	—	×0.942	8.71%
HBP% /PA	3.02%	—	×0.940	—	×0.942	2.67%
Singles /BIP	22.83%	÷1.036	×0.930	×0.992	×0.942	19.16%
Doubles /BIP	3.15%	÷0.951	×0.830	×0.992	×0.942	2.57%
Triples /BIP	0.79%	÷1.143	×0.970	×0.992	×0.942	0.62%
Home runs /BIP	4.72%	÷0.996	×0.700	—	×0.942	3.13%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 107, 2B 90, 3B 129, K 101, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 27.2 → −5.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.992.

Result: wOBA .344 → .272; ISO .151 → .115; BABIP .276 → .227. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAABuffalo Bisons · 165 PAwOBA .303 → .235 (−68)K% 21.2% → 26.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.21%	÷0.973	×1.200	—	—	26.16%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.15%	÷0.984	×0.690	—	×0.952	10.12%
HBP% /PA	0.61%	—	×0.940	—	×0.952	0.54%
Singles /BIP	24.00%	÷1.018	×0.930	×0.954	×0.952	19.91%
Doubles /BIP	4.00%	÷1.033	×0.830	×0.954	×0.952	2.92%
Triples /BIP	1.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.954	×0.952	0.77%
Home runs /BIP	2.00%	÷0.916	×0.700	—	×0.952	1.45%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 104, 2B 107, 3B 130, K 95, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.954.

Result: wOBA .303 → .235; ISO .089 → .068; BABIP .293 → .237. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 151 PAwOBA .294 → .251 (−44)K% 19.2% → 23.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.21%	÷0.992	×1.200	—	—	23.24%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.60%	÷1.061	×0.690	—	×0.972	6.70%
HBP% /PA	0.66%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	0.61%
Singles /BIP	28.00%	÷1.016	×0.930	×1.002	×0.972	24.96%
Doubles /BIP	6.00%	÷0.952	×0.830	×1.002	×0.972	5.10%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.920	×1.002	×0.972	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.957	×0.700	—	×0.972	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 103, 2B 90, 3B 130, K 98, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.

Result: wOBA .294 → .251; ISO .047 → .041; BABIP .333 → .295. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAANew Orleans Baby Cakes · 273 PAwOBA .414 → .326 (−88)K% 12.8% → 17.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.82%	÷0.950	×1.290	—	—	17.42%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.69%	÷1.085	×0.710	—	×0.992	4.99%
HBP% /PA	1.83%	—	×0.980	—	×0.992	1.78%
Singles /BIP	23.44%	÷0.971	×0.900	×0.950	×0.992	20.48%
Doubles /BIP	8.13%	÷0.952	×0.810	×0.950	×0.992	6.52%
Triples /BIP	1.44%	÷0.900	×0.810	×0.950	×0.992	1.22%
Home runs /BIP	6.22%	÷1.100	×0.780	—	×0.992	4.37%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 120, 1B 94, 2B 90, 3B 80, K 90, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .414 → .326; ISO .254 → .187; BABIP .352 → .295. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AABiloxi Shuckers · 273 PAwOBA .317 → .274 (−43)K% 11.7% → 15.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	11.72%	÷0.933	×1.220	—	—	15.32%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.72%	÷0.964	×0.680	—	×0.978	8.08%
HBP% /PA	1.47%	—	×0.840	—	×0.978	1.20%
Singles /BIP	21.88%	÷0.967	×0.920	×0.950	×0.978	19.33%
Doubles /BIP	5.73%	÷0.918	×0.910	×0.950	×0.978	5.28%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.880	×0.950	×0.978	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.08%	÷1.078	×0.800	—	×0.978	1.51%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 93, 2B 84, 3B 80, K 87, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .317 → .274; ISO .103 → .090; BABIP .275 → .244. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAAColorado Springs Sky Sox · 23 PAwOBA .273 → .219 (−54)K% 17.4% → 24.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.39%	÷0.925	×1.290	—	—	24.25%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	17.39%	÷0.985	×0.710	—	×1.003	12.57%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×1.003	0.00%
Singles /BIP	26.67%	÷1.014	×0.900	—	×1.003	23.73%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.014	×0.810	—	×1.003	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.810	—	×1.003	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.124	×0.780	—	×1.003	0.00%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 125, 1B 103, 2B 103, 3B 130, K 85, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .273 → .219; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .267 → .237. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAAColorado Springs Sky Sox · 228 PAwOBA .321 → .262 (−59)K% 14.9% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.91%	÷0.953	×1.290	—	—	20.18%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.77%	÷0.995	×0.710	—	×1.018	6.37%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×1.018	0.00%
Singles /BIP	21.21%	÷1.018	×0.900	×1.007	×1.018	19.22%
Doubles /BIP	11.52%	÷1.163	×0.810	×1.007	×1.018	8.22%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.810	×1.007	×1.018	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.21%	÷0.933	×0.780	—	×1.018	1.03%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 104, 2B 133, 3B 130, K 91, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.007.

Result: wOBA .321 → .262; ISO .126 → .095; BABIP .325 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAAFresno Grizzlies · 272 PAwOBA .309 → .251 (−59)K% 16.2% → 20.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.18%	÷0.996	×1.290	—	—	20.94%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.56%	÷1.008	×0.710	—	×1.033	6.96%
HBP% /PA	1.84%	—	×0.980	—	×1.033	1.86%
Singles /BIP	24.62%	÷1.000	×0.900	×0.950	×1.033	21.74%
Doubles /BIP	4.62%	÷1.061	×0.810	×0.950	×1.033	3.46%
Triples /BIP	1.03%	÷1.150	×0.810	×0.950	×1.033	0.71%
Home runs /BIP	1.54%	÷1.040	×0.780	—	×1.033	1.19%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 100, 2B 112, 3B 130, K 99, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .309 → .251; ISO .092 → .068; BABIP .307 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Curt Casalilast yr '24 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,566 PA	2.4	1,566	47	2	217	311	367	+28	+19	7.8	7.9
/162	664	20	1	+11.9	+7.9	3.3	pk7: 8
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3Chad Moeller'00-'10 * career totals — 10 seasons, 1,539 PA	2.3	1,539	29	2	218*	277*	341*	+27	-0	-0.2	1.0
/162	664	13	1	+11.6	-0.1	-0.1	pk7: 2
#4Jeff Torborg'64-'73 * career totals — 9 seasons, 1,525 PA	2.3	1,525	8	3	214*	271*	292*	+27	+0	0.2	0.7
/162	664	3	1	+11.8	+0.0	0.1	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	1.1	758	6	7	214	275	288	+12	+23	0.3	0.3
/162	664	6	6	+10.2	+20.2	0.2	pk7: 0
#5Joel Skinner'83-'91 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,551 PA	2.3	1,551	17	3	227*	270*	327*	+27	-0	-0.6	0.2
/162	664	7	1	+11.7	-0.1	-0.3	pk7: 1
#6John Boccabella'63-'74 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,595 PA	2.4	1,595	26	3	217*	267*	343*	+8	+6	-1.3	-0.1
/162	664	11	1	+3.5	+2.7	-0.5	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Tyler Heineman (OGILVIE)	36	40	35	40	45	218/284/321	103	256	2	1	18%	6%	73	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Matt Treanor 2012 · MLB	36	44	41→40	39→40	56	214/313/306	93	254	10	6	19%	11%	81	-0.1	219/309/339	120	270	12	8	22%	10%	86	+0.3	170/266/275	105	214	9	5	24%	10%	59	-0.3
✕Jamie Burke 2008 · MLB	36	49→45	43→45	40→30	46	237/286/347	110	262	10	3	15%	5%	79	-0.2	225/275/317	92	264	8	5	17%	5%	68	-1.0	203/251/265	62	245	4	1	18%	5%	46	-0.6
✕Gary Bennett 2007 · MLB	35	46	42→40	43→40	50	223/281/323	100	253	10	4	17%	7%	72	-0.7	234/286/354	120	252	13	7	13%	6%	80	-0.1	241/277/321	80	257	7	4	9%	4%	69	-0.3
✕Chad Moeller 2010 · MLB	35	43	41→50	43→30	43	211/261/315	104	258	8	4	22%	5%	62	-1.4	218/275/334	116	267	10	7	21%	6%	72	-0.7	191/246/285	94	237	4	0	20%	4%	47	-0.5
✕Luis Antonio Rodriguez 2015 · AAA	35	45→50	43→45	42→45	49	217/274/325	108	238	10	5	14%	6%	70	-0.9	237/292/342	105	279	10	9	18%	6%	80	-0.2	267/314/333	66	308	7	4	15%	6%	82	+0.0
✕Sandy León 2024 · MLB	35	41→51	41→45	46→30	48	199/279/294	95	266	9	4	27%	9%	65	-1.2	168/243/261	93	254	11	5	36%	8%	44	-2.8	127/200/199	72	195	10	3	39%	8%	13	-1.9
✕Drew Butera 2019 · MLB	35	44	45→40	47→40	48	221/286/345	124	270	12	4	23%	8%	78	-0.3	199/268/313	114	265	11	6	28%	8%	65	-1.2	170/243/272	102	236	10	5	31%	7%	46	-1.3
✕Jesus Rivera 2014 · AAA	36	50→52	39→40	42→40	46	237/279/317	80	272	7	5	16%	5%	68	-1.0	225/275/295	70	273	5	4	18%	6%	62	-1.4	259/304/311	52	303	1	4	14%	5%	76	-0.2
✕Luke Carlin 2015 · AAA	34	41	41→45	44→45	50	202/272/299	97	245	9	6	22%	8%	63	-1.3	192/277/290	98	244	7	8	23%	9%	63	-1.3	122/237/178	56	163	0	3	22%	11%	24	-1.4
✕Humberto Quintero 2015 · MLB	35	47	44→45	41→40	38	233/263/350	118	284	11	5	22%	3%	70	-0.8	225/257/325	100	280	10	7	23%	3%	63	-1.4	220/242/296	76	267	11	3	22%	2%	47	-1.3
✕Hector Paez 2014 · AAA	36	46	43→45	47→40	42	223/261/324	101	241	11	4	14%	3%	64	-1.3	213/251/303	90	240	9	5	15%	3%	55	-1.9	205/233/265	60	234	5	2	14%	2%	38	-1.0
✕Francisco Valdez 2006 · AAA	37	48	45→40	40→30	43	235/291/352	116	263	13	5	16%	4%	82	+0.0	248/290/336	88	276	8	5	13%	4%	78	-0.3	260/300/341	82	286	4	1	10%	3%	79	-0.1
✕Pedro Mere 2006 · AAA	36	45→46	42→40	45→40	45	220/265/321	101	255	9	7	18%	6%	65	-1.2	224/271/311	87	253	8	5	14%	5%	65	-1.2	222/271/296	74	252	6	3	14%	5%	59	-0.8
✕Sean Kazmar Jr. 2021 · AAA	36	44→51	44→45	45	44	216/261/327	112	241	12	5	17%	5%	65	-1.2	201/244/317	116	234	14	9	21%	5%	56	-1.9	160/194/251	91	179	13	6	20%	4%	20	-2.1
✕Luis Figueroa 2010 · AAA	36	51→55	37→40	40→45	47	239/274/313	74	257	4	5	10%	4%	65	-1.2	242/275/318	76	260	4	4	8%	4%	67	-1.1	248/280/315	67	266	2	2	8%	4%	65	-0.9
✕Wil Nieves 2014 · MLB	36	52→56	40	42→40	42	251/281/337	86	296	8	4	18%	4%	74	-0.6	239/281/335	96	301	8	6	22%	5%	74	-0.6	240/265/325	85	312	4	4	24%	1%	65	-0.3
✕Iker Franco 2017 · AAA	36	51→47	41→50	43→40	47	245/299/336	91	296	9	4	20%	7%	80	-0.1	221/273/327	106	279	12	7	24%	6%	70	-0.9	156/195/247	91	190	13	0	26%	5%	19	-0.9
✕Tuffy Gosewisch 2019 · MLB	35	38→43	41→45	43→40	44	189/252/288	99	243	8	3	25%	6%	53	-2.1	199/266/305	106	273	10	7	29%	7%	63	-1.4	144/218/211	67	206	9	0	33%	5%	22	-1.0
✕Lou Merloni 2007 · MLB	36	48→44	42→45	40	46	234/291/341	107	271	9	4	17%	6%	79	-0.2	215/270/303	88	250	7	5	16%	6%	63	-1.4	201/254/264	63	234	3	1	15%	6%	45	-2.0
✕Hector Hurtado 2008 · AAA	37	46	42→40	41→30	38	226/266/322	96	282	10	3	24%	3%	65	-1.2	213/251/291	78	270	7	4	23%	3%	52	-2.2	206/236/255	49	259	4	0	22%	2%	34	-1.0

Tyler Heineman

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps