Sean Kazmar Jr.

PosSS

B/TR/R

Born1984-08-05

Age (2027)42

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

AAALAST SEASON 2021

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2018	33	AAAATL	366	.254/.300/.314	1	3	34	—	.205/.244/.251
2019	34	AAAATL	424	.270/.337/.430	12	1	63	—	.214/.263/.349
2021	36	AAAATL	276	.215/.266/.355	9	3	20	—	.160/.193/.251

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2005	20	A	Fort Wayne Wizards	—	519	469	125	26	0	10	44	69	1	7	4	267	331	386	717	119	293	13	8	320	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	21	A+	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	616	540	135	19	5	13	63	80	2	10	1	250	331	376	707	126	269	13	10	314	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	22	AA	San Antonio Missions	—	299	269	56	10	2	6	24	46	3	6	1	208	280	327	608	119	227	15	8	274	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	22	A+	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	222	201	57	20	0	3	16	27	3	4	1	284	345	428	773	144	316	12	7	343	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	23	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	46	39	8	1	0	0	5	14	0	0	0	205	295	231	526	26	308	30	11	241	50	-3	+0	-1	+5	+1	0.3
2008	23	AA	San Antonio Missions	—	433	382	101	21	3	3	38	66	3	7	4	264	336	359	694	94	309	15	9	309	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	24	AAA	Portland Beavers	—	411	366	86	14	0	5	37	59	2	8	2	235	309	314	623	79	266	14	9	283	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	25	AAA	Portland Beavers	—	545	499	137	23	3	8	37	81	3	7	2	275	328	381	709	106	312	15	7	316	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	26	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	—	519	462	117	29	3	3	36	68	6	7	6	253	315	348	664	95	286	13	7	293	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	27	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	33	29	4	1	0	0	1	10	0	0	0	138	167	172	339	34	211	30	3	142	-27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	27	AA	Binghamton Mets	—	213	195	46	9	2	4	13	27	3	0	2	236	294	364	658	128	255	13	6	293	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	28	AAA	Gwinnett Braves	—	296	272	62	17	1	1	18	40	1	8	4	228	278	309	587	81	263	14	6	263	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	29	AAA	Gwinnett Braves	—	259	232	69	18	1	4	19	28	1	2	2	297	353	435	789	138	319	11	7	342	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	30	AAA	Gwinnett Braves	—	424	397	111	25	6	3	17	39	5	3	0	280	317	395	713	116	300	9	4	314	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	31	AAA	Gwinnett Braves	—	347	327	86	16	1	5	16	52	1	1	5	263	299	364	663	101	298	15	5	295	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	32	AAA	Gwinnett Braves	—	382	363	103	15	0	11	12	40	3	5	1	284	312	416	728	132	292	10	3	320	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	33	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	366	338	86	15	1	1	14	38	8	3	2	254	300	314	614	59	280	10	4	276	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	34	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	424	381	103	21	2	12	32	56	6	1	1	270	337	430	767	160	286	13	8	338	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	36	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	276	256	55	9	0	9	17	44	1	3	0	215	266	355	622	141	224	16	6	277	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	46	39	8	1	0	0	5	14	0	0	0	205	295	231	526	26	308	30	11	241	50	-3	+0	-1	+5	+1	0.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2005	20	A MLE	Fort Wayne Wizards	—	519	483	109	21	0	8	30	94	1	7	4	226	272	319	591	93	259	18	6	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	21	A+ MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	616	558	119	15	4	12	45	107	2	10	1	213	274	319	593	106	234	17	7	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	22	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	—	299	277	51	9	2	5	16	56	3	6	1	184	236	285	522	101	207	19	5	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	22	A+ MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	222	206	49	16	0	3	11	36	3	4	1	238	286	359	646	121	270	16	5	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	23	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	46	39	8	1	0	0	5	14	0	0	0	205	295	231	526	26	308	30	11	241	50	-3	+0	-1	+5	+1	0.3
2008	23	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	—	433	393	95	19	3	2	27	81	3	7	4	242	296	321	616	79	286	19	6	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	24	AAA MLE	Portland Beavers	—	411	378	79	12	0	4	25	76	2	8	2	209	262	272	534	63	243	18	6	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	25	AAA MLE	Portland Beavers	—	545	510	126	19	3	7	26	99	3	7	2	247	288	337	625	90	286	18	5	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	26	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	—	519	474	106	26	2	2	24	89	6	7	6	224	270	300	569	76	257	17	5	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	27	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	33	29	4	1	0	0	1	12	0	0	0	138	167	172	339	34	192	36	3	128	-27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	27	AA MLE	Binghamton Mets	—	213	199	40	8	2	3	9	33	3	0	2	201	246	307	553	106	219	15	4	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	28	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Braves	—	296	278	54	14	1	1	12	49	1	8	4	194	230	263	493	68	226	17	4	214	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	29	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Braves	—	259	238	60	15	1	3	13	34	1	2	2	252	294	361	655	109	266	13	5	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	30	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Braves	—	424	404	96	20	6	2	10	50	5	3	0	238	265	332	597	94	259	12	2	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	31	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Braves	—	347	333	71	12	1	4	10	60	1	1	5	213	238	291	530	78	245	17	3	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	32	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Braves	—	382	367	86	12	0	9	8	49	3	5	1	234	257	341	597	106	245	13	2	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	33	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	366	342	70	11	1	1	10	48	8	3	2	205	244	251	496	47	228	13	3	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	34	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	424	393	84	16	2	11	20	71	6	1	1	214	263	349	611	135	226	17	5	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	36	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	276	263	42	6	0	6	10	54	1	3	0	160	193	251	444	91	177	20	4	198	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	20	A MLE	Fort Wayne Wizards	—	519	483	109	21	0	8	30	94	1	7	4	226	272	319	591	93	263	18	6	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	20	A RAW	Fort Wayne Wizards	—	519	469	125	26	0	10	44	69	1	7	4	267	331	386	717	119	293	13	8	320	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	21	A+ MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	616	558	119	15	4	12	45	107	2	10	1	213	274	319	593	106	240	17	7	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	21	A+ RAW	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	616	540	135	19	5	13	63	80	2	10	1	250	331	376	707	126	269	13	10	314	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	521	482	99	24	2	8	28	92	6	10	2	205	258	313	571	108	236	18	5	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	22	AA RAW	2 teams	—	521	470	113	30	2	9	40	73	6	10	2	240	308	370	678	130	266	14	8	303	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	479	432	103	20	3	2	32	95	3	7	4	238	296	312	608	74	297	20	7	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	23	AA RAW	2 teams	—	479	421	109	22	3	3	43	80	3	7	4	259	332	347	679	88	309	17	9	302	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	24	AAA MLE	Portland Beavers	—	411	378	79	12	0	4	25	76	2	8	2	209	262	272	534	63	249	18	6	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	24	AAA RAW	Portland Beavers	—	411	366	86	14	0	5	37	59	2	8	2	235	309	314	623	79	266	14	9	283	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	25	AAA MLE	Portland Beavers	—	545	510	126	19	3	7	26	99	3	7	2	247	288	337	625	90	292	18	5	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	25	AAA RAW	Portland Beavers	—	545	499	137	23	3	8	37	81	3	7	2	275	328	381	709	106	312	15	7	316	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	26	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	—	519	474	106	26	2	2	24	89	6	7	6	224	270	300	569	76	267	17	5	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	26	AAA RAW	Tacoma Rainiers	—	519	462	117	29	3	3	36	68	6	7	6	253	315	348	664	95	286	13	7	293	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	27	AA MLE	2 teams	—	246	228	43	8	2	3	10	45	3	0	2	189	232	281	513	92	221	18	4	222	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	27	AA RAW	2 teams	—	246	224	50	10	2	4	14	37	3	0	2	223	278	339	617	116	250	15	6	273	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	28	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Braves	—	296	278	54	14	1	1	12	49	1	8	4	194	230	263	493	68	231	17	4	214	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	28	AAA RAW	Gwinnett Braves	—	296	272	62	17	1	1	18	40	1	8	4	228	278	309	587	81	263	14	6	263	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	29	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Braves	—	259	238	60	15	1	3	13	34	1	2	2	252	294	361	655	109	278	13	5	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	29	AAA RAW	Gwinnett Braves	—	259	232	69	18	1	4	19	28	1	2	2	297	353	435	789	138	319	11	7	342	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	30	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Braves	—	424	404	96	20	6	2	10	50	5	3	0	238	265	332	597	94	263	12	2	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	30	AAA RAW	Gwinnett Braves	—	424	397	111	25	6	3	17	39	5	3	0	280	317	395	713	116	300	9	4	314	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	31	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Braves	—	347	333	71	12	1	4	10	60	1	1	5	213	238	291	530	78	247	17	3	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	31	AAA RAW	Gwinnett Braves	—	347	327	86	16	1	5	16	52	1	1	5	263	299	364	663	101	298	15	5	295	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	32	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Braves	—	382	367	86	12	0	9	8	49	3	5	1	234	257	341	597	106	247	13	2	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	32	AAA RAW	Gwinnett Braves	—	382	363	103	15	0	11	12	40	3	5	1	284	312	416	728	132	292	10	3	320	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	33	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	366	342	70	11	1	1	10	48	8	3	2	205	244	251	496	47	232	13	3	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	33	AAA RAW	Gwinnett Stripers	—	366	338	86	15	1	1	14	38	8	3	2	254	300	314	614	59	280	10	4	276	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	34	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	424	393	84	16	2	11	20	71	6	1	1	214	263	349	611	135	231	17	5	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	34	AAA RAW	Gwinnett Stripers	—	424	381	103	21	2	12	32	56	6	1	1	270	337	430	767	160	286	13	8	338	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	36	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	276	263	42	6	0	6	10	54	1	3	0	160	193	251	444	91	176	20	4	198	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	36	AAA RAW	Gwinnett Stripers	—	276	256	55	9	0	9	17	44	1	3	0	215	266	355	622	141	224	16	6	277	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	20	A MLE	Fort Wayne Wizards	—	519	483	109	21	0	8	30	94	1	7	4	226	272	319	591	93	259	18	6	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	21	A+ MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	616	564	119	15	4	12	45	107	2	10	1	211	274	316	590	105	234	17	7	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	521	482	99	24	2	8	28	92	6	10	2	205	258	313	571	108	234	18	5	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	479	441	103	20	3	2	32	95	3	7	4	234	296	306	602	73	288	20	7	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	24	AAA MLE	Portland Beavers	—	411	381	79	12	0	4	25	76	2	8	2	207	262	270	532	63	243	18	6	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	25	AAA MLE	Portland Beavers	—	545	511	126	19	3	7	26	99	3	7	2	247	288	337	624	90	286	18	5	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	26	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	—	519	484	106	26	2	2	24	89	6	7	6	219	270	293	563	74	257	17	5	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	27	AA MLE	2 teams	—	246	231	43	8	2	3	10	45	3	0	2	186	232	277	509	91	215	18	4	222	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	28	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Braves	—	296	281	54	14	1	1	12	49	1	8	4	192	230	260	490	68	226	17	4	214	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	29	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Braves	—	259	243	60	15	1	3	13	34	1	2	2	247	294	354	648	107	266	13	5	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	30	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Braves	—	424	406	96	20	6	2	10	50	5	3	0	236	265	330	595	94	259	12	2	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	31	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Braves	—	347	333	71	12	1	4	10	60	1	1	5	213	238	291	530	78	245	17	3	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	32	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Braves	—	382	368	86	12	0	9	8	49	3	5	1	234	257	340	596	106	245	13	2	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	33	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	366	345	70	11	1	1	10	48	8	3	2	203	244	249	494	46	228	13	3	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	34	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	424	395	84	16	2	11	20	71	6	1	1	213	263	347	609	134	226	17	5	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	36	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	276	263	42	6	0	6	10	54	1	3	0	160	193	251	444	91	177	20	4	198	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	46	39	8	1	0	0	5	14	0	0	0	205	295	231	526	26	308	30	11	241	55	-3	+0	-1	+5	+1	0.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	551	113	14	0	0	71	198	0	0	0	205	296	230	526	25	308	30	11	241	55	-39	+0	-7	+73	+14	4.1
Career	—	MLE		—	6630	6163	1347	251	28	83	313	1112	52	82	38	219	262	309	571	90	251	17	5	250	55	-3	+0	-1	+5	+1	0.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	604	133	25	3	8	31	109	5	8	4	220	264	311	575	91	254	17	5	250	55	-39	+0	-7	+73	+14	4.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2021 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 276 PAwOBA .269 → .198 (−72)K% 15.9% → 19.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.94%	÷0.975	×1.200	—	—	19.61%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.80%	÷1.014	×0.690	—	×0.940	3.71%
HBP% /PA	0.36%	—	×0.940	—	×0.940	0.32%
Singles /BIP	17.45%	÷1.011	×0.930	×0.950	×0.940	14.34%
Doubles /BIP	4.25%	÷1.039	×0.830	×0.950	×0.940	3.03%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.920	×0.950	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.25%	÷1.001	×0.700	—	×0.940	2.79%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 102, 2B 108, 3B 130, K 95, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 37 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (9.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .269 → .198; ISO .141 → .094; BABIP .224 → .177. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 424 PAwOBA .333 → .262 (−71)K% 13.2% → 16.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.21%	÷0.948	×1.200	—	—	16.71%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.55%	÷1.047	×0.690	—	×0.940	4.67%
HBP% /PA	1.42%	—	×0.940	—	×0.940	1.25%
Singles /BIP	20.92%	÷1.038	×0.930	×0.950	×0.940	16.75%
Doubles /BIP	6.46%	÷0.963	×0.830	×0.950	×0.940	4.97%
Triples /BIP	0.62%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.950	×0.940	0.46%
Home runs /BIP	3.69%	÷0.899	×0.840	—	×0.940	3.24%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 108, 2B 93, 3B 130, K 90, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 35 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .333 → .262; ISO .160 → .135; BABIP .286 → .226. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 366 PAwOBA .273 → .219 (−53)K% 10.4% → 13.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	10.38%	÷0.952	×1.200	—	—	13.09%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	3.83%	÷0.947	×0.690	—	×0.940	2.62%
HBP% /PA	2.19%	—	×0.940	—	×0.940	1.93%
Singles /BIP	23.00%	÷1.010	×0.930	×0.957	×0.940	19.06%
Doubles /BIP	5.00%	÷0.995	×0.830	×0.957	×0.940	3.75%
Triples /BIP	0.33%	÷1.116	×0.970	×0.957	×0.940	0.26%
Home runs /BIP	0.33%	÷0.970	×0.840	—	×0.940	0.27%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 102, 2B 99, 3B 123, K 90, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 34 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.957.

Result: wOBA .273 → .219; ISO .059 → .045; BABIP .280 → .228. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAAGwinnett Braves · 382 PAwOBA .314 → .258 (−55)K% 10.5% → 12.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	10.47%	÷0.989	×1.200	—	—	12.71%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	3.14%	÷0.999	×0.690	—	×0.942	2.04%
HBP% /PA	0.79%	—	×0.940	—	×0.942	0.70%
Singles /BIP	23.84%	÷1.005	×0.930	×0.974	×0.942	20.24%
Doubles /BIP	4.64%	÷0.936	×0.830	×0.974	×0.942	3.78%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.005	×0.970	×0.974	×0.942	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.41%	÷0.972	×0.840	—	×0.942	2.77%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 101, 2B 87, 3B 101, K 98, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 27.2 → −5.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.974.

Result: wOBA .314 → .258; ISO .132 → .108; BABIP .292 → .245. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAAGwinnett Braves · 347 PAwOBA .289 → .229 (−59)K% 15.0% → 17.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.99%	÷1.046	×1.200	—	—	17.19%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.61%	÷1.022	×0.690	—	×0.952	2.96%
HBP% /PA	0.29%	—	×0.940	—	×0.952	0.26%
Singles /BIP	23.27%	÷1.017	×0.930	×0.967	×0.952	19.60%
Doubles /BIP	5.82%	÷0.991	×0.830	×0.967	×0.952	4.49%
Triples /BIP	0.36%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.967	×0.952	0.28%
Home runs /BIP	1.82%	÷1.132	×0.840	—	×0.952	1.28%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 126, 1B 103, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 109, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.967.

Result: wOBA .289 → .229; ISO .101 → .075; BABIP .298 → .245. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAAGwinnett Braves · 424 PAwOBA .309 → .259 (−50)K% 9.2% → 11.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	9.20%	÷0.940	×1.200	—	—	11.74%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.01%	÷1.103	×0.690	—	×0.962	2.41%
HBP% /PA	1.18%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	1.07%
Singles /BIP	21.51%	÷0.996	×0.930	×0.982	×0.962	18.96%
Doubles /BIP	6.98%	÷0.988	×0.830	×0.982	×0.962	5.54%
Triples /BIP	1.68%	÷0.988	×0.970	×0.982	×0.962	1.55%
Home runs /BIP	0.84%	÷1.014	×0.840	—	×0.962	0.67%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 99, 2B 98, 3B 98, K 88, BB 121 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.

Result: wOBA .309 → .259; ISO .116 → .096; BABIP .300 → .259. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 AAAGwinnett Braves · 259 PAwOBA .338 → .278 (−60)K% 10.8% → 13.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	10.81%	÷0.975	×1.200	—	—	13.30%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.34%	÷0.984	×0.690	—	×0.972	5.00%
HBP% /PA	0.39%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	0.35%
Singles /BIP	22.55%	÷1.012	×0.930	×0.962	×0.972	19.38%
Doubles /BIP	8.82%	÷0.992	×0.830	×0.962	×0.972	6.91%
Triples /BIP	0.49%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.962	×0.972	0.39%
Home runs /BIP	1.96%	÷1.120	×0.840	—	×0.972	1.43%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 102, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 95, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.962.

Result: wOBA .338 → .278; ISO .138 → .109; BABIP .319 → .266. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 AAAGwinnett Braves · 296 PAwOBA .257 → .214 (−42)K% 13.5% → 16.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.51%	÷0.971	×1.200	—	—	16.69%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.08%	÷0.991	×0.690	—	×0.982	4.16%
HBP% /PA	0.34%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	0.31%
Singles /BIP	18.53%	÷1.038	×0.930	×0.988	×0.982	16.11%
Doubles /BIP	7.33%	÷0.964	×0.830	×0.988	×0.982	6.12%
Triples /BIP	0.43%	÷1.047	×0.970	×0.988	×0.982	0.39%
Home runs /BIP	0.43%	÷0.949	×0.840	—	×0.982	0.37%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 108, 2B 93, 3B 109, K 94, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.

Result: wOBA .257 → .214; ISO .081 → .069; BABIP .263 → .226. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).