Jesus Rivera

Pos2B

B/TL/R

Born1977-09-20

Age (2027)49

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

AAALAST SEASON 2017

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2015	37	AAADelfines de C…	185	.273/.412/.315	0	0	70	—	.241/.322/.278
2016	38	AAADelfines de C…	226	.294/.363/.328	0	1	67	—	.265/.305/.294
2017	39	AAAGenerales de …	298	.330/.384/.433	2	4	87	—	.281/.313/.367

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2005	27	AAA	Olmecas de Tabasco	—	184	156	42	9	1	2	21	14	2	1	1	269	363	378	741	109	284	8	11	329	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	28	AAA	Cafeteros de Cordoba	—	136	122	23	5	0	0	12	22	0	1	0	189	261	230	491	41	228	16	9	229	12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	29	AAA	Saraperos de Saltillo	—	158	133	32	2	1	3	18	20	1	0	1	241	336	338	674	98	264	13	11	299	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	30	AAA	Piratas de Campeche	—	409	338	92	14	2	6	39	40	2	4	2	272	351	379	730	107	288	10	10	307	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	31	AAA	Piratas de Campeche	—	293	248	74	19	0	4	32	22	3	0	2	298	385	423	809	125	312	8	11	353	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	32	AAA	Piratas de Campeche	—	250	222	63	6	2	3	18	19	1	0	2	284	340	369	710	86	297	8	7	310	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	33	AAA	Piratas de Campeche	—	243	205	52	9	1	4	28	19	0	0	3	254	343	366	709	112	258	8	12	310	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	34	AAA	Piratas de Campeche	—	143	132	39	7	0	2	7	20	2	1	0	295	340	394	734	98	336	14	5	326	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	35	AAA	Piratas de Campeche	—	125	111	33	4	0	1	10	17	0	0	1	297	355	360	716	63	344	14	8	316	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	36	AAA	Delfines de Ciudad del Carmen	—	225	200	46	9	1	3	17	38	2	0	0	230	297	330	627	100	265	17	8	278	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	37	AAA	Delfines de Ciudad del Carmen	—	185	143	39	6	0	0	31	25	3	0	1	273	412	315	727	42	322	14	17	332	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	38	AAA	Delfines de Ciudad del Carmen	—	226	201	59	7	0	0	21	34	1	1	0	294	363	328	692	35	351	15	9	316	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	39	AAA	Generales de Durango	—	298	270	89	22	0	2	21	26	3	4	2	330	384	433	818	104	358	9	7	363	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2005	27	AAA MLE	Olmecas de Tabasco	—	184	166	42	8	1	2	11	17	2	1	1	253	307	349	657	96	258	9	6	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	28	AAA MLE	Cafeteros de Cordoba	—	136	127	21	4	0	0	7	26	0	1	0	165	209	197	406	31	201	19	5	186	12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	29	AAA MLE	Saraperos de Saltillo	—	158	140	31	2	1	2	11	24	1	0	1	221	283	293	576	71	244	15	7	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	30	AAA MLE	Piratas de Campeche	—	409	351	94	13	2	5	26	48	2	4	2	268	322	359	681	91	264	12	6	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	31	AAA MLE	Piratas de Campeche	—	293	259	71	17	0	3	21	26	3	0	2	274	336	375	710	100	280	9	7	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	32	AAA MLE	Piratas de Campeche	—	250	229	57	5	2	2	11	23	1	0	2	249	286	314	601	66	256	9	4	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	33	AAA MLE	Piratas de Campeche	—	243	218	49	8	1	2	15	21	0	0	3	225	275	298	573	73	223	9	6	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	34	AAA MLE	Piratas de Campeche	—	143	135	33	5	0	1	4	23	2	1	0	244	277	304	580	59	287	16	3	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	35	AAA MLE	Piratas de Campeche	—	125	115	31	3	0	1	6	20	0	0	1	270	306	322	628	52	313	16	5	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	36	AAA MLE	Delfines de Ciudad del Carmen	—	225	208	41	7	1	2	9	44	2	0	0	197	237	269	507	72	228	20	4	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	37	AAA MLE	Delfines de Ciudad del Carmen	—	185	158	38	6	0	0	16	29	3	0	1	241	322	278	601	38	268	16	9	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	38	AAA MLE	Delfines de Ciudad del Carmen	—	226	211	56	6	0	0	11	40	1	1	0	265	305	294	599	28	316	18	5	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	39	AAA MLE	Generales de Durango	—	298	281	79	18	0	2	10	32	3	4	2	281	313	367	679	85	307	11	3	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	27	AAA MLE	Olmecas de Tabasco	—	184	166	42	8	1	2	11	17	2	1	1	253	307	349	657	96	270	9	6	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	27	AAA RAW	Olmecas de Tabasco	—	184	156	42	9	1	2	21	14	2	1	1	269	363	378	741	109	284	8	11	329	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	28	AAA MLE	Cafeteros de Cordoba	—	136	127	21	4	0	0	7	26	0	1	0	165	209	197	406	31	206	19	5	186	12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	28	AAA RAW	Cafeteros de Cordoba	—	136	122	23	5	0	0	12	22	0	1	0	189	261	230	491	41	228	16	9	229	12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	29	AAA MLE	Saraperos de Saltillo	—	158	140	31	2	1	2	11	24	1	0	1	221	283	293	576	71	254	15	7	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	29	AAA RAW	Saraperos de Saltillo	—	158	133	32	2	1	3	18	20	1	0	1	241	336	338	674	98	264	13	11	299	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	30	AAA MLE	Piratas de Campeche	—	409	351	94	13	2	5	26	48	2	4	2	268	322	359	681	91	292	12	6	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	30	AAA RAW	Piratas de Campeche	—	409	338	92	14	2	6	39	40	2	4	2	272	351	379	730	107	288	10	10	307	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	31	AAA MLE	Piratas de Campeche	—	293	259	71	17	0	3	21	26	3	0	2	274	336	375	710	100	293	9	7	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	31	AAA RAW	Piratas de Campeche	—	293	248	74	19	0	4	32	22	3	0	2	298	385	423	809	125	312	8	11	353	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	32	AAA MLE	Piratas de Campeche	—	250	229	57	5	2	2	11	23	1	0	2	249	286	314	601	66	267	9	4	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	32	AAA RAW	Piratas de Campeche	—	250	222	63	6	2	3	18	19	1	0	2	284	340	369	710	86	297	8	7	310	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	33	AAA MLE	Piratas de Campeche	—	243	218	49	8	1	2	15	21	0	0	3	225	275	298	573	73	236	9	6	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	33	AAA RAW	Piratas de Campeche	—	243	205	52	9	1	4	28	19	0	0	3	254	343	366	709	112	258	8	12	310	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	34	AAA MLE	Piratas de Campeche	—	143	135	33	5	0	1	4	23	2	1	0	244	277	304	580	59	288	16	3	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	34	AAA RAW	Piratas de Campeche	—	143	132	39	7	0	2	7	20	2	1	0	295	340	394	734	98	336	14	5	326	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	35	AAA MLE	Piratas de Campeche	—	125	115	31	3	0	1	6	20	0	0	1	270	306	322	628	52	319	16	5	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	35	AAA RAW	Piratas de Campeche	—	125	111	33	4	0	1	10	17	0	0	1	297	355	360	716	63	344	14	8	316	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	36	AAA MLE	Delfines de Ciudad del Carmen	—	225	208	41	7	1	2	9	44	2	0	0	197	237	269	507	72	236	20	4	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	36	AAA RAW	Delfines de Ciudad del Carmen	—	225	200	46	9	1	3	17	38	2	0	0	230	297	330	627	100	265	17	8	278	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	37	AAA MLE	Delfines de Ciudad del Carmen	—	185	158	38	6	0	0	16	29	3	0	1	241	322	278	601	38	288	16	9	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	37	AAA RAW	Delfines de Ciudad del Carmen	—	185	143	39	6	0	0	31	25	3	0	1	273	412	315	727	42	322	14	17	332	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	38	AAA MLE	Delfines de Ciudad del Carmen	—	226	211	56	6	0	0	11	40	1	1	0	265	305	294	599	28	326	18	5	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	38	AAA RAW	Delfines de Ciudad del Carmen	—	226	201	59	7	0	0	21	34	1	1	0	294	363	328	692	35	351	15	9	316	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	39	AAA MLE	Generales de Durango	—	298	281	79	18	0	2	10	32	3	4	2	281	313	367	679	85	310	11	3	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	39	AAA RAW	Generales de Durango	—	298	270	89	22	0	2	21	26	3	4	2	330	384	433	818	104	358	9	7	363	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	27	AAA MLE	Olmecas de Tabasco	—	184	169	42	8	1	2	11	17	2	1	1	249	307	343	650	95	258	9	6	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	28	AAA MLE	Cafeteros de Cordoba	—	136	128	21	4	0	0	7	26	0	1	0	164	209	195	404	31	201	19	5	186	12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	29	AAA MLE	Saraperos de Saltillo	—	158	145	31	2	1	2	11	24	1	0	1	214	283	283	566	69	244	15	7	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	30	AAA MLE	Piratas de Campeche	—	409	378	94	13	2	5	26	48	2	4	2	249	322	333	655	85	264	12	6	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	31	AAA MLE	Piratas de Campeche	—	293	267	71	17	0	3	21	26	3	0	2	266	336	363	699	97	280	9	7	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	32	AAA MLE	Piratas de Campeche	—	250	236	57	5	2	2	11	23	1	0	2	242	286	305	591	64	256	9	4	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	33	AAA MLE	Piratas de Campeche	—	243	226	49	8	1	2	15	21	0	0	3	217	275	288	562	71	223	9	6	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	34	AAA MLE	Piratas de Campeche	—	143	136	33	5	0	1	4	23	2	1	0	243	277	301	578	59	287	16	3	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	35	AAA MLE	Piratas de Campeche	—	125	118	31	3	0	1	6	20	0	0	1	263	306	314	619	51	313	16	5	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	36	AAA MLE	Delfines de Ciudad del Carmen	—	225	212	41	7	1	2	9	44	2	0	0	193	237	264	502	71	228	20	4	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	37	AAA MLE	Delfines de Ciudad del Carmen	—	185	164	38	6	0	0	16	29	3	0	1	232	322	268	590	37	268	16	9	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	38	AAA MLE	Delfines de Ciudad del Carmen	—	226	212	56	6	0	0	11	40	1	1	0	264	305	292	597	28	316	18	5	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	39	AAA MLE	Generales de Durango	—	298	283	79	18	0	2	10	32	3	4	2	279	313	364	677	85	307	11	3	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
Career	—	MLE		—	2875	2598	643	102	8	22	158	373	20	12	15	247	296	318	614	71	279	13	5	267	67	-113	-4	+0	+10	+62	-4.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	587	146	23	2	5	36	84	5	3	3	249	298	320	619	72	280	13	6	267	67	-26	-1	+0	+2	+14	-1.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2017 AAAGenerales de Durango · 298 PAwOBA .350 → .297 (−53)K% 8.7% → 10.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	8.72%	÷0.978	×1.200	—	—	10.70%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.70%	÷1.073	×0.690	—	×0.940	3.45%
HBP% /PA	1.01%	—	×0.940	—	×0.940	0.89%
Singles /BIP	26.64%	÷1.049	×0.930	×1.050	×0.940	23.31%
Doubles /BIP	9.02%	÷1.012	×0.830	×1.050	×0.940	7.30%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.920	×1.050	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.82%	÷0.903	×0.700	—	×0.940	0.60%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 110, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 96, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 40 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (12.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .350 → .297; ISO .104 → .085; BABIP .358 → .307. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAADelfines de Ciudad del Carmen · 226 PAwOBA .303 → .267 (−36)K% 15.0% → 17.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.04%	÷1.030	×1.200	—	—	17.53%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.52%	÷1.018	×0.690	—	×0.940	4.79%
HBP% /PA	0.44%	—	×0.940	—	×0.940	0.39%
Singles /BIP	31.14%	÷1.000	×0.930	×1.050	×0.940	28.60%
Doubles /BIP	4.19%	÷1.080	×0.830	×1.050	×0.940	3.18%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.920	×1.050	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.926	×0.700	—	×0.940	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 100, 2B 116, 3B 130, K 106, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 39 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (11.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .303 → .267; ISO .035 → .028; BABIP .351 → .316. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAADelfines de Ciudad del Carmen · 185 PAwOBA .324 → .272 (−52)K% 13.5% → 15.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.51%	÷1.049	×1.200	—	—	15.46%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.14%	÷1.102	×0.690	—	×0.940	8.91%
HBP% /PA	1.62%	—	×0.940	—	×0.940	1.43%
Singles /BIP	27.97%	÷1.095	×0.930	×1.032	×0.940	23.03%
Doubles /BIP	5.08%	÷0.934	×0.830	×1.032	×0.940	4.38%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.907	×0.920	×1.032	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.867	×0.700	—	×0.940	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 73, 1B 119, 2B 87, 3B 81, K 110, BB 120 — applied at half strength. Age: age 38 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (10.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.032.

Result: wOBA .324 → .272; ISO .042 → .042; BABIP .322 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 AAADelfines de Ciudad del Carmen · 225 PAwOBA .269 → .223 (−46)K% 16.9% → 19.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.89%	÷1.036	×1.200	—	—	19.55%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.22%	÷1.021	×0.690	—	×0.940	3.95%
HBP% /PA	0.89%	—	×0.940	—	×0.940	0.79%
Singles /BIP	20.37%	÷0.978	×0.930	×0.999	×0.940	18.19%
Doubles /BIP	5.56%	÷1.015	×0.830	×0.999	×0.940	4.26%
Triples /BIP	0.62%	÷1.150	×0.920	×0.999	×0.940	0.46%
Home runs /BIP	1.85%	÷1.079	×0.700	—	×0.940	1.13%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 96, 2B 103, 3B 130, K 107, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 37 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (9.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.

Result: wOBA .269 → .223; ISO .100 → .073; BABIP .265 → .228. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 AAAPiratas de Campeche · 125 PAwOBA .305 → .273 (−32)K% 13.6% → 16.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.60%	÷0.996	×1.200	—	—	16.38%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.20%	÷0.959	×0.690	—	×0.940	4.87%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.940	0.00%
Singles /BIP	29.79%	÷0.990	×0.930	×1.050	×0.940	27.62%
Doubles /BIP	4.26%	÷0.994	×0.830	×1.050	×0.940	3.51%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.920	×1.050	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.06%	÷0.988	×0.700	—	×0.940	0.71%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 98, 2B 99, 3B 130, K 99, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 36 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (8.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .305 → .273; ISO .063 → .050; BABIP .344 → .313. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2012 AAAPiratas de Campeche · 143 PAwOBA .315 → .258 (−57)K% 14.0% → 16.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.99%	÷1.032	×1.200	—	—	16.26%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.20%	÷0.969	×0.690	—	×0.940	2.81%
HBP% /PA	1.40%	—	×0.940	—	×0.940	1.24%
Singles /BIP	26.79%	÷0.982	×0.930	×0.996	×0.940	23.74%
Doubles /BIP	6.25%	÷1.027	×0.830	×0.996	×0.940	4.73%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.920	×0.996	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.79%	÷1.331	×0.700	—	×0.940	0.88%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 166, 1B 96, 2B 105, 3B 80, K 106, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 35 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.

Result: wOBA .315 → .258; ISO .098 → .064; BABIP .336 → .287. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2011 AAAPiratas de Campeche · 243 PAwOBA .298 → .254 (−44)K% 7.8% → 8.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	7.82%	÷1.063	×1.200	—	—	8.83%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.05%	÷0.964	×0.690	—	×0.940	6.09%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.940	0.00%
Singles /BIP	20.43%	÷0.986	×0.930	×1.008	×0.940	18.27%
Doubles /BIP	4.84%	÷1.032	×0.830	×1.008	×0.940	3.69%
Triples /BIP	0.54%	÷0.900	×0.920	×1.008	×0.940	0.52%
Home runs /BIP	2.15%	÷1.307	×0.700	—	×0.940	1.08%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 161, 1B 97, 2B 106, 3B 80, K 113, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 34 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.

Result: wOBA .298 → .254; ISO .112 → .080; BABIP .258 → .223. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2010 AAAPiratas de Campeche · 250 PAwOBA .305 → .259 (−46)K% 7.6% → 9.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	7.60%	÷0.987	×1.200	—	—	9.24%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.20%	÷1.040	×0.690	—	×0.942	4.50%
HBP% /PA	0.40%	—	×0.940	—	×0.942	0.35%
Singles /BIP	25.62%	÷1.014	×0.930	×1.004	×0.942	22.20%
Doubles /BIP	2.96%	÷0.973	×0.830	×1.004	×0.942	2.38%
Triples /BIP	0.99%	÷0.900	×0.920	×1.004	×0.942	0.95%
Home runs /BIP	1.48%	÷0.996	×0.700	—	×0.942	0.98%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 103, 2B 95, 3B 80, K 97, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 27.2 → −5.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.

Result: wOBA .305 → .259; ISO .086 → .070; BABIP .297 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).