Sandy León

C Gwinnett Stripers
Age 38 S/R 5'9" / 235 lbs AAA Svc 3.815 · Ctrl thru 2029
Overview
AAAArb-1FA 2030
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202435AAA/INTL2 orgs413.198/.340/.3079053—.145/.248/.192
202536AAA/INTL2 orgs249.163/.256/.33510214—.123/.174/.251
202637AAAATL110.168/.269/.263226—.120/.185/.170
202637MLBATL44.091/.091/.09100-58-0.5
2027PROJ10% MLB38MLBATL10.178/.239/.3060052-0.0
2028PROJ39MLBATL80.168/.227/.2812042-1.1
Last 3 seasons WAR -0.5  ·  Next 2 projected WAR -1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2029Service3.815First FA2030
2027Arb-1$0.2M2028Arb-2$0.4M2029Ext$0.6M
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA
BB%64
Chase%53
Speed39
Max EV32
Z-Con%22
Whiff%15
CompsErik Kratz (age 37) · Alan Zinter (age 38) · Jonathan Aceves (age 37)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†52
AVG/OBP/SLG.178 / .239 / .306
PA10
HR0
K%30
BB%10
BABIP243
ISO125
MLB%10%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -6.0 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-6BATRUN: -0.9 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)-1RUNFLD: -0.2 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-0FLDPOS: +1.9 runs (Positional adjustment)+2POSREP: +2.3 runs (Replacement-level credit)+2REPTotal WAR: -0.30-0.3WAR
0.00.51.00.00.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus
Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 60
Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2023-2026
CONTACT25
xAVG
100.130
POWER60
Barrel%
102.0
Avg EV
1084.5
Bat Spd
1167.1
EYE40
scouting grade only
SPEED45
Sprint
1022.1
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   Arb-1
MLB Debut   2012
Service   3.815 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2029
First FA Year   2030
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Arb-1$0.2M———
2028Arb-2$0.4M———
2029Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $-4M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
200718 ROKGCL Nationals — 11594 19000 17150 00 202324202526 241 1315 253 17 — — — — — —
200819 ROKGCL Nationals — 8674 14110 9182 12 189294230524 41250 2110 250 3 — — — — — —
200920 AHagerstown Suns — 8378 17300 5210 00 218265256521 38298 256 241 13 — — — — — —
201021 AHagerstown Suns — 385325 811062 50790 35 249349335685 86317 2113 308 66 — — — — — —
201122 A+Potomac Nationals — 416370 932116 33691 13 251314362677 111292 178 297 51 — — — — — —
201122 INTLAguilas del Zulia — 3228 7000 440 00 250344250594 292 1212 285 79 — — — — — —
201223 MLBWashington Nationals — 3630 8200 4112 00 267389333722 67421 3111 341 116 +1 +0 +2 +6 +1 1.0
201223 AAASyracuse Chiefs — 6452 18502 12120 00 3464695581.026 212421 1919 452 153 — — — — — —
201223 AAHarrisburg Senators — 149135 421201 9162 10 311363422785 111342 116 346 97 — — — — — —
201223 INTLAguilas del Zulia — 9386 21111 6230 11 244293314607 70323 256 274 71 — — — — — —
201324 AAHarrisburg Senators — 362311 551213 47573 00 177291251542 74206 1613 258 34 — — — — — —
201324 INTLAguilas del Zulia — 142119 42812 20262 11 353454487941 134435 1814 419 170 — — — — — —
201425 MLBWashington Nationals — 7064 10101 6200 00 156229219447 62209 299 211 29 -6 +0 +2 +8 +2 0.5
201425 AAASyracuse Chiefs — 193170 39905 23360 10 229321371692 141264 1912 314 57 — — — — — —
201425 INTLAguilas del Zulia — 173147 31812 17271 10 211297320617 109238 1610 270 69 — — — — — —
201526 MLBBoston Red Sox — 128114 21200 7281 01 184238202439 18244 225 198 14 -13 -0 +2 +7 +3 -0.2
201526 AAAPawtucket Red Sox — 11199 26401 10232 01 263342333676 71333 219 312 68 — — — — — —
201526 INTLVenezuela — 154130 31411 19271 00 238340308648 69288 1812 295 86 — — — — — —
201627 MLBBoston Red Sox — 283252 781727 23662 00 310372476848 167392 238 368 128 +9 +0 +4 +7 +6 2.8
201627 AAAPawtucket Red Sox — 130115 28312 11242 00 243320339659 96286 188 298 65 — — — — — —
201728 MLBBoston Red Sox — 301271 611407 25741 00 225293354647 129280 258 289 75 -9 +0 +12 +5 +7 1.5
201829 MLBBoston Red Sox — 288265 471205 15754 10 177232279512 102226 265 230 38 -21 +0 +21 +5 +6 1.1
201930 MLBBoston Red Sox — 191172 33305 13471 00 192253297549 105231 257 244 50 -11 +0 +6 +4 +4 0.3
201930 AAAPawtucket Red Sox — 2625 3000 160 01 120154120274 158 234 131 -39 — — — — — —
202031 MLBCleveland Indians — 8166 9102 14211 00 136296242539 106163 2617 264 65 -3 +0 +1 +3 +2 0.2
202031 INTLTigres del Licey — 5950 8003 8161 00 160288340628 180161 2714 290 82 — — — — — —
202132 MLBMiami Marlins — 220202 37504 12653 00 183240267507 84244 305 230 46 -14 +0 +5 +4 +5 -0.0
202132 INTLColombia — 2216 5000 610 00 312500312812 333 527 396 154 — — — — — —
202233 MLBMinnesota Twins — 8671 12300 13270 00 169298211509 42273 3115 245 52 -5 +0 +1 +3 +2 0.1
202233 AAAColumbus Clippers — 10084 19302 14141 00 226343333677 107246 1414 312 57 — — — — — —
202334 MLBTexas Rangers — 4441 6200 1201 00 146186195381 49286 452 173 4 -5 +0 -0 +4 +1 0.0
202334 AAAColumbus Clippers — 7661 14302 14141 00 230382377759 148267 1818 351 65 — — — — — —
202334 INTLTigres de Aragua — 11898 16500 14250 00 163268214482 51213 2112 222 36 — — — — — —
202435 AAAGwinnett Stripers — 297237 43405 51852 00 181331262593 80253 2917 281 29 — — — — — —
202435 INTLAguilas del Zulia — 11692 22504 16282 00 239364424788 185295 2414 337 114 — — — — — —
202536 AAAGwinnett Stripers — 211187 316010 18662 20 166246358605 193188 319 266 8 — — — — — —
202536 INTLNavegantes del Magallanes — 3828 4100 5102 00 143314179493 36222 2613 236 46 — — — — — —
202637 MLBAtlanta Braves — 4444 4000 0180 00 919191182 154 410 82 -58 -8 +0 +0 +3 +1 -0.5
202637 AAAGwinnett Stripers — 11095 16302 13430 20 168269263532 95275 3912 246 6 — — — — — —
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 17721592 32662231 13347216 11 205273305577 100269 278 260 62 -80 -0 +56 +60 +38 7.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
200718 ROK MLEGCL Nationals — 115101 17000 10220 00 168243168412 205 199 193 17 — — — — — —
200819 ROK MLEGCL Nationals — 8677 11110 6262 12 143224182405 39196 307 172 3 — — — — — —
200920 A MLEHagerstown Suns — 8380 14200 3280 00 175205200405 25275 344 188 13 — — — — — —
201021 A MLEHagerstown Suns — 385340 76961 351030 35 224296294590 71300 279 266 66 — — — — — —
201122 A+ MLEPotomac Nationals — 416383 821715 201011 13 214255303558 89266 245 244 51 — — — — — —
201223 MLB MLEWashington Nationals — 3630 8200 4112 00 267389333722 67421 3111 339 116 +1 +0 +2 +6 +1 1.0
201223 AAA MLESyracuse Chiefs — 6456 17402 8150 00 304391482873 179398 2312 394 153 — — — — — —
201223 AA MLEHarrisburg Senators — 149137 401001 7192 10 292336387722 95322 135 312 97 — — — — — —
201324 AA MLEHarrisburg Senators — 362327 531212 31673 00 162241223464 61197 199 219 34 — — — — — —
201425 MLB MLEWashington Nationals — 7064 10101 6200 00 156229219447 62209 299 211 29 -6 +0 +2 +8 +2 0.5
201425 AAA MLESyracuse Chiefs — 193178 34704 15450 10 191254298552 107233 238 253 57 — — — — — —
201526 MLB MLEBoston Red Sox — 128115 21200 6281 01 183230200430 17244 225 189 14 -13 -0 +2 +7 +3 -0.2
201526 AAA MLEPawtucket Red Sox — 111102 24401 7292 01 235297304601 69322 266 268 68 — — — — — —
201627 MLB MLEBoston Red Sox — 283253 751527 22662 00 296357455812 158392 238 357 128 +9 +0 +4 +7 +6 2.8
201627 AAA MLEPawtucket Red Sox — 130119 28312 7292 00 235289328617 92277 225 265 65 — — — — — —
201728 MLB MLEBoston Red Sox — 301272 581207 24741 00 213279335614 121280 258 279 75 -9 +0 +12 +5 +7 1.5
201829 MLB MLEBoston Red Sox — 288265 461105 15754 10 174229272501 98226 265 224 38 -21 +0 +21 +5 +6 1.1
201930 MLB MLEBoston Red Sox — 191172 33305 13471 00 192253297549 105231 257 242 50 -11 +0 +6 +4 +4 0.3
201930 AAA MLEPawtucket Red Sox — 2625 3000 170 01 120154120274 150 274 110 -39 — — — — — —
202031 MLB MLECleveland Indians — 8166 9102 14211 00 136296242539 106163 2617 264 65 -3 +0 +1 +3 +2 0.2
202132 MLB MLEMiami Marlins — 220202 37504 12653 00 183240267507 84244 305 237 46 -14 +0 +5 +4 +5 -0.0
202233 MLB MLEMinnesota Twins — 8671 12300 13270 00 169298211509 42273 3115 245 52 -5 +0 +1 +3 +2 0.1
202233 AAA MLEColumbus Clippers — 10088 16201 10161 00 182273239511 57218 1610 252 57 — — — — — —
202334 MLB MLETexas Rangers — 4441 6200 1201 00 146186195381 49286 452 175 4 -5 +0 -0 +4 +1 0.0
202334 AAA MLEColumbus Clippers — 7666 12201 9171 00 182289258547 76227 2212 264 65 — — — — — —
202435 AAA MLEGwinnett Stripers — 297255 37303 331062 00 145248192440 47218 3611 211 29 — — — — — —
202536 AAA MLEGwinnett Stripers — 211195 24407 10812 20 123174251425 128148 385 180 8 — — — — — —
202637 MLB MLEAtlanta Braves — 4444 4000 0180 00 919191182 154 410 82 -58 -8 +0 +0 +3 +1 -0.5
202637 AAA MLEGwinnett Stripers — 110100 12201 8520 20 120185170355 50231 477 177 6 — — — — — —
200718 ROK MLEGCL Nationals — 115101 17000 10220 00 168243168412 215 199 193 17 — — — — — —
200718 ROK RAWGCL Nationals — 11594 19000 17150 00 202324202526 241 1315 253 17 — — — — — —
200819 ROK MLEGCL Nationals — 8677 11110 6262 12 143224182405 39216 307 172 3 — — — — — —
200819 ROK RAWGCL Nationals — 8674 14110 9182 12 189294230524 41250 2110 250 3 — — — — — —
200920 A MLEHagerstown Suns — 8380 14200 3280 00 175205200405 25269 344 188 13 — — — — — —
200920 A RAWHagerstown Suns — 8378 17300 5210 00 218265256521 38298 256 241 13 — — — — — —
201021 A MLEHagerstown Suns — 385340 76961 351030 35 224296294590 71311 279 266 66 — — — — — —
201021 A RAWHagerstown Suns — 385325 811062 50790 35 249349335685 86317 2113 308 66 — — — — — —
201122 A+ MLE2 teams — 448413 901916 221081 13 218259312572 94278 245 244 51 — — — — — —
201122 A+ RAW2 teams — 448398 1002116 37731 13 251317354671 103292 168 296 51 — — — — — —
201223 AA MLE4 teams — 342308 902304 26624 21 292355406761 114352 188 337 114 — — — — — —
201223 AA RAW4 teams — 342303 892014 31624 21 294367406773 112356 189 345 114 — — — — — —
201324 AA MLE2 teams — 504453 741713 44935 11 163245225470 62198 189 219 34 — — — — — —
201324 AA RAW2 teams — 504430 972025 67835 11 226337316653 91267 1613 304 34 — — — — — —
201425 AAA MLE3 teams — 436391 731309 361071 20 187257289546 102229 258 242 50 — — — — — —
201425 AAA RAW3 teams — 436381 801818 46831 20 210297325622 115245 1911 280 50 — — — — — —
201526 INTL MLE3 teams — 393357 73901 22934 02 204258238497 34272 246 225 39 — — — — — —
201526 INTL RAW3 teams — 393343 781012 36784 02 227308280588 52287 209 268 39 — — — — — —
201627 MLB MLE2 teams — 413372 1031839 29954 00 277336414750 137346 237 328 108 +4 +0 +4 +7 +9 2.5
201627 MLB RAW2 teams — 413367 1062039 34904 00 289356433789 144357 228 346 108 +4 +0 +4 +7 +9 2.5
201728 MLB MLEBoston Red Sox — 301272 581207 24741 00 213279335614 121263 258 279 75 -9 +0 +12 +5 +7 1.5
201728 MLB RAWBoston Red Sox — 301271 611407 25741 00 225293354647 129280 258 289 75 -9 +0 +12 +5 +7 1.5
201829 MLB MLEBoston Red Sox — 288265 461105 15754 10 174229272501 98220 265 224 38 -21 +0 +21 +5 +6 1.1
201829 MLB RAWBoston Red Sox — 288265 471205 15754 10 177232279512 102226 265 230 38 -21 +0 +21 +5 +6 1.1
201930 MLB MLE2 teams — 217197 35305 14541 01 178236269505 91216 256 226 39 -16 -0 +6 +4 +5 -0.1
201930 MLB RAW2 teams — 217197 36305 14531 01 183241274515 91221 246 231 39 -16 -0 +6 +4 +5 -0.1
202031 MLB MLE2 teams — 140114 15203 24362 00 132293228521 96160 2617 264 65 -6 +0 +1 +3 +3 0.1
202031 MLB RAW2 teams — 140116 17105 22372 00 147293284577 138162 2616 275 65 -6 +0 +1 +3 +3 0.1
202132 MLB MLE2 teams — 242223 42605 13723 00 188243283525 94250 305 237 46 -15 +0 +5 +4 +5 -0.1
202132 MLB RAW2 teams — 242218 42504 18663 00 193264271534 78253 277 245 46 -15 +0 +5 +4 +5 -0.1
202233 AAA MLE2 teams — 186159 28501 23431 00 176284226511 50233 2312 249 54 — — — — — —
202233 AAA RAW2 teams — 186155 31602 27411 00 200322277600 77257 2215 281 54 — — — — — —
202334 INTL MLE3 teams — 238209 37903 20732 00 177255263519 86252 318 231 43 — — — — — —
202334 INTL RAW3 teams — 238200 361002 29592 00 180290260550 80241 2512 254 43 — — — — — —
202435 AAA MLE2 teams — 413350 53505 461484 00 151258209466 57239 3611 211 29 — — — — — —
202435 AAA RAW2 teams — 413329 65909 671134 00 198340307647 109265 2716 297 29 — — — — — —
202536 AAA MLE2 teams — 249226 27408 12964 20 119178243421 124154 395 180 8 — — — — — —
202536 AAA RAW2 teams — 249215 357010 23764 20 163256335591 172192 319 261 8 — — — — — —
202637 AAA MLE2 teams — 154144 16201 8700 20 111158146304 35203 455 150 -12 — — — — — —
202637 AAA RAW2 teams — 154139 20302 13610 20 144217209426 65234 408 199 -12 — — — — — —
200718 ROK MLEGCL Nationals — 115104 17000 10220 00 163243163407 205 199 193 17 — — — — — —
200819 ROK MLEGCL Nationals — 8678 11110 6262 12 141224179403 38196 307 172 3 — — — — — —
200920 A MLEHagerstown Suns — 8380 14200 3280 00 175205200405 25275 344 188 13 — — — — — —
201021 A MLEHagerstown Suns — 385347 76961 351030 35 219296288584 69300 279 266 66 — — — — — —
201122 A+ MLE2 teams — 448422 901916 221081 13 213259306565 92266 245 244 51 — — — — — —
201223 AA MLE4 teams — 342309 902304 26624 21 291355405760 113356 188 337 114 — — — — — —
201324 AA MLE2 teams — 504450 741713 44935 11 164245227472 62197 189 219 34 — — — — — —
201425 AAA MLE3 teams — 436396 731309 361071 20 184257285542 101227 258 242 50 — — — — — —
201526 INTL MLE3 teams — 393364 73901 22934 02 201258234492 33280 246 225 39 — — — — — —
201627 MLB MLE2 teams — 413377 1031839 29954 00 273336408744 135356 237 328 108 — — — — — —
201728 MLB MLEBoston Red Sox — 301273 581207 24741 00 212279333613 121280 258 279 75 — — — — — —
201829 MLB MLEBoston Red Sox — 288267 461105 15754 10 172229270499 97226 265 224 38 — — — — — —
201930 MLB MLE2 teams — 217200 35305 14541 01 175236265501 90222 256 226 39 — — — — — —
202031 MLB MLE2 teams — 140113 15203 24362 00 133293230523 97163 2617 264 65 — — — — — —
202132 MLB MLE2 teams — 242224 42605 13723 00 188243281524 94244 305 237 46 — — — — — —
202233 AAA MLE2 teams — 186160 28501 23431 00 175284225509 50243 2312 249 54 — — — — — —
202334 INTL MLE3 teams — 238214 37903 20732 00 173255257512 84249 318 231 43 — — — — — —
202435 AAA MLE2 teams — 413360 53505 461484 00 147258203460 56218 3611 211 29 — — — — — —
202536 AAA MLE2 teams — 249231 27408 12964 20 117178238416 121148 395 180 8 — — — — — —
202637 AAA MLE2 teams — 154145 16201 8700 20 110158145303 34209 455 150 -12 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202435 AAA MLE2 teams — 413360 53505 461484 00 147258203460 56218 3611 211 29 — — — — — —
202536 AAA MLE2 teams — 249231 27408 12964 20 117178238416 121148 395 180 8 — — — — — —
202637 AAA MLE2 teams — 154145 16201 8700 20 110158145303 34209 455 150 -12 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202738 MLB MLEATL 10% 170156 27514 11571 11 178239306545 127243 346 245 52 -10 -0 -0 +3 +4 -0.3
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202738 MLB CTXATL 10% 109 1000 130 00 178239306545 127243 3010 245 52 -1 +0 -0 +0 +0 -0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202839 MLB MLEATL 100% 8075 12202 5270 00 168227281509 113233 346 230 42 -6 +0 -9 +1 +2 -1.1
202839 MLB CTXATL 100% 8075 12202 5270 00 168227281509 113233 346 230 42 -6 +0 -9 +1 +2 -1.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 18521667 33864233 13849916 11 203270303573 100267 277 259 50 -85 -0 +47 +61 +40 6.4
/ 162G— A+C — 650585 11922112 481756 00 203271306577 103267 277 259 50 -30 -0 +17 +21 +14 2.3
Career— MLE — 58185222 10071751281 444154044 1616 193262277539 85254 268 243 50 -91 -0 +47 +63 +42 6.2
/ 162G— MLE — 650583 1132019 501725 22 194263278541 84256 268 243 50 -30 -0 +16 +21 +14 2.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 110 PAwOBA .242 → .177 (−65)K% 39.1% → 46.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA39.09%÷1.000×1.200——46.91%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.82%÷1.000×0.690—×0.9407.67%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×0.9400.00%
Singles /BIP21.15%÷1.000×0.930×0.999×0.94018.48%
Doubles /BIP5.77%÷1.000×0.830×0.999×0.9404.50%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.970×0.999×0.9400.00%
Home runs /BIP3.85%÷1.000×0.700—×0.9402.53%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 37 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (9.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.

Result: wOBA .242 → .177; ISO .095 → .064; BABIP .275 → .231. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 211 PAwOBA .260 → .180 (−80)K% 31.3% → 38.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA31.28%÷0.976×1.200——38.45%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.53%÷1.140×0.690—×0.9404.85%
HBP% /PA0.95%—×0.940—×0.9400.84%
Singles /BIP12.40%÷0.968×0.930×0.971×0.94010.87%
Doubles /BIP4.96%÷1.162×0.830×0.971×0.9403.23%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.970×0.971×0.9400.00%
Home runs /BIP8.26%÷0.961×0.700—×0.9405.66%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 94, 2B 132, 3B 80, K 95, BB 128 — applied at half strength. Age: age 36 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (8.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.971.

Result: wOBA .260 → .180; ISO .193 → .127; BABIP .188 → .148. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 297 PAwOBA .277 → .211 (−66)K% 28.6% → 35.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA28.62%÷0.958×1.200——35.84%
BB% (unintentional) /PA17.17%÷1.001×0.690—×0.94011.13%
HBP% /PA0.67%—×0.940—×0.9400.60%
Singles /BIP22.37%÷0.977×0.930×0.980×0.94019.63%
Doubles /BIP2.63%÷0.961×0.830×0.980×0.9402.09%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.970×0.980×0.9400.00%
Home runs /BIP3.29%÷0.968×0.700—×0.9402.24%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 95, 2B 92, 3B 130, K 92, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 35 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.980.

Result: wOBA .277 → .211; ISO .080 → .058; BABIP .253 → .218. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAColumbus Clippers · 76 PAwOBA .343 → .264 (−79)K% 18.4% → 21.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.42%÷1.008×1.200——21.94%
BB% (unintentional) /PA18.42%÷0.994×0.690—×0.94012.01%
HBP% /PA1.32%—×0.940—×0.9401.16%
Singles /BIP19.15%÷0.963×0.930×0.992×0.94017.25%
Doubles /BIP6.38%÷1.018×0.830×0.992×0.9404.86%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.970×0.992×0.9400.00%
Home runs /BIP4.26%÷1.037×0.700—×0.9402.70%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 93, 2B 104, 3B 80, K 102, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 34 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.992.

Result: wOBA .343 → .264; ISO .148 → .105; BABIP .267 → .227. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAColumbus Clippers · 100 PAwOBA .308 → .252 (−56)K% 14.0% → 16.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA14.00%÷1.036×1.200——16.22%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.00%÷0.930×0.690—×0.9429.78%
HBP% /PA1.00%—×0.940—×0.9420.89%
Singles /BIP20.00%÷0.941×0.930×0.991×0.94218.45%
Doubles /BIP4.29%÷1.040×0.830×0.991×0.9423.19%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.970×0.991×0.9420.00%
Home runs /BIP2.86%÷1.001×0.700—×0.9421.88%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 88, 2B 108, 3B 80, K 107, BB 86 — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 27.2 → −5.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.991.

Result: wOBA .308 → .252; ISO .107 → .077; BABIP .246 → .218. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 26 PAwOBA .128 → .110 (−18)K% 23.1% → 27.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA23.08%÷1.002×1.200——27.64%
BB% (unintentional) /PA3.85%÷0.963×0.690—×0.9722.68%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×0.9720.00%
Singles /BIP15.79%÷0.953×0.930—×0.97214.97%
Doubles /BIP0.00%÷0.896×0.830—×0.9720.00%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.970—×0.9720.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.038×0.840—×0.9720.00%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 91, 2B 79, 3B 80, K 100, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .128 → .110; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .158 → .150. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 130 PAwOBA .291 → .265 (−26)K% 18.5% → 22.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.46%÷0.979×1.200——22.62%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.69%÷1.007×0.690—×1.0035.29%
HBP% /PA1.54%—×0.940—×1.0031.45%
Singles /BIP24.18%÷0.957×0.930×1.003×1.00323.61%
Doubles /BIP3.30%÷0.923×0.830×1.003×1.0032.98%
Triples /BIP1.10%÷0.912×0.970×1.003×1.0031.18%
Home runs /BIP2.20%÷0.994×0.840—×1.0031.86%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 91, 2B 85, 3B 82, K 96, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.003.

Result: wOBA .291 → .265; ISO .096 → .087; BABIP .286 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 111 PAwOBA .305 → .268 (−37)K% 20.7% → 26.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.72%÷0.956×1.200——26.02%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.01%÷0.996×0.690—×1.0186.36%
HBP% /PA1.80%—×0.940—×1.0181.72%
Singles /BIP27.63%÷0.989×0.930×1.008×1.01826.65%
Doubles /BIP5.26%÷0.867×0.830×1.008×1.0185.17%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.012×0.970×1.008×1.0180.00%
Home runs /BIP1.32%÷1.012×0.840—×1.0181.11%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 98, 2B 73, 3B 102, K 91, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.

Result: wOBA .305 → .268; ISO .071 → .063; BABIP .333 → .322. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .