Quintin Berry

PosLF

B/TL/L

Born1984-11-21

Age (2027)42

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

AAALAST SEASON 2018

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2016	31	AAATOR	418	.261/.344/.313	1	35	55	—	.232/.290/.280
2017	32	AAAColorado Spri…	88	.244/.330/.372	2	3	35	—	.160/.227/.235
2018	33	AAAScranton/Wilk…	106	.206/.274/.309	2	10	21	—	.160/.208/.220

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2007	22	A	Lakewood BlueClaws	—	581	487	152	19	4	3	61	85	12	55	18	312	402	386	788	74	365	15	10	349	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	23	A+	Clearwater Threshers	—	590	511	139	24	1	3	65	103	6	51	14	272	361	341	701	68	335	17	11	320	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	24	AA	Reading Phillies	—	598	516	137	17	2	5	63	118	9	48	14	266	355	335	691	70	336	20	11	315	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	25	AA	San Antonio Missions	—	409	348	73	11	3	3	43	78	6	27	8	210	307	284	592	75	260	19	11	270	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	26	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	19	18	1	0	0	0	0	4	0	2	0	56	56	56	111		71	21	0	48	-85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	26	AA	Carolina Mudcats	—	378	321	95	16	1	6	51	83	3	40	7	296	397	408	805	112	382	22	13	364	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	27	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	330	291	75	10	6	2	25	80	7	21	0	258	331	354	685	96	348	24	8	306	96	-2	+4	-4	-6	+7	0.0
2012	27	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	187	159	43	8	0	0	22	46	3	19	3	270	370	321	690	50	377	25	12	318	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	28	AAA	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	381	319	61	10	1	3	50	81	5	30	4	191	310	257	567	66	245	21	13	267	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	29	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	432	365	104	19	1	3	57	84	2	25	6	285	384	367	752	82	359	19	13	340	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	30	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	443	373	84	7	1	4	53	96	5	35	6	225	329	282	611	56	288	22	12	282	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	31	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	418	364	95	12	2	1	40	86	6	35	10	261	344	313	657	52	336	21	10	300	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	32	AAA	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	—	88	78	19	2	1	2	9	20	1	3	2	244	330	372	701	128	304	23	10	319	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	33	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	106	97	20	4	0	2	8	34	1	10	1	206	274	309	583	103	295	32	8	267	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	330	291	75	10	6	2	25	80	7	21	0	258	331	354	685	96	348	24	8	306	93	-3	+4	-4	-6	+7	-0.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2007	22	A MLE	Lakewood BlueClaws	—	581	508	149	17	4	3	40	114	12	55	18	293	359	360	719	67	344	20	7	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	23	A+ MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	590	529	127	23	1	2	47	146	6	51	14	240	309	299	608	59	322	25	8	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	24	AA MLE	Reading Phillies	—	598	537	139	16	2	4	42	144	9	48	14	259	323	318	642	60	335	24	7	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	25	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	—	409	361	75	11	3	3	30	96	6	27	8	208	280	280	559	72	256	23	7	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	26	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	19	18	1	0	0	0	0	5	0	2	0	56	56	56	111		64	26	0	42	-85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	26	AA MLE	Carolina Mudcats	—	378	338	87	15	1	5	34	105	3	40	7	257	331	352	683	95	352	28	9	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	27	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	330	291	76	10	6	2	25	80	7	21	0	261	334	357	692	96	348	24	8	309	96	-2	+4	-4	-6	+7	0.0
2012	27	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	187	166	38	7	0	0	15	58	3	19	3	229	304	271	575	42	338	31	8	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	28	AAA MLE	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	381	338	60	8	1	2	31	96	5	30	4	178	257	225	482	47	234	25	8	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	29	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	432	385	100	19	1	2	37	98	2	25	6	260	328	330	658	70	330	23	9	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	30	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	443	390	75	6	1	3	36	118	5	35	6	192	269	236	505	44	250	27	8	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	31	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	418	379	88	11	2	1	25	110	6	35	10	232	290	280	570	47	308	26	6	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	32	AAA MLE	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	—	88	81	13	1	1	1	6	27	1	3	2	160	227	235	462	74	232	31	7	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	33	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	106	100	16	3	0	1	5	41	1	10	1	160	208	220	428	60	256	39	5	199	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	22	A MLE	Lakewood BlueClaws	—	581	508	149	17	4	3	40	114	12	55	18	293	359	360	719	67	365	20	7	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	22	A RAW	Lakewood BlueClaws	—	581	487	152	19	4	3	61	85	12	55	18	312	402	386	788	74	365	15	10	349	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	23	A+ MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	590	529	127	23	1	2	47	146	6	51	14	240	309	299	608	59	327	25	8	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	23	A+ RAW	Clearwater Threshers	—	590	511	139	24	1	3	65	103	6	51	14	272	361	341	701	68	335	17	11	320	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	24	AA MLE	Reading Phillies	—	598	537	139	16	2	4	42	144	9	48	14	259	323	318	642	60	347	24	7	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	24	AA RAW	Reading Phillies	—	598	516	137	17	2	5	63	118	9	48	14	266	355	335	691	70	336	20	11	315	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	25	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	—	409	361	75	11	3	3	30	96	6	27	8	208	280	280	559	72	273	23	7	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	25	AA RAW	San Antonio Missions	—	409	348	73	11	3	3	43	78	6	27	8	210	307	284	592	75	260	19	11	270	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	26	AA MLE	2 teams	—	397	356	88	15	1	5	34	110	3	42	7	247	318	337	655	90	343	28	9	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	26	AA RAW	2 teams	—	397	339	96	16	1	6	51	87	3	42	7	283	382	389	771	106	364	22	13	349	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	517	457	114	17	6	2	40	138	10	40	3	249	323	326	650	77	351	27	8	292	83	-10	+7	-4	-6	+11	-0.1
2012	27	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	517	450	118	18	6	2	47	126	10	40	3	262	345	342	687	80	358	24	9	310	83	-10	+7	-4	-6	+11	-0.1
2013	28	AAA MLE	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	381	338	60	8	1	2	31	96	5	30	4	178	257	225	482	47	240	25	8	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	28	AAA RAW	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	381	319	61	10	1	3	50	81	5	30	4	191	310	257	567	66	245	21	13	267	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	29	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	432	385	100	19	1	2	37	98	2	25	6	260	328	330	658	70	340	23	9	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	29	AAA RAW	Norfolk Tides	—	432	365	104	19	1	3	57	84	2	25	6	285	384	367	752	82	359	19	13	340	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	30	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	443	390	75	6	1	3	36	118	5	35	6	192	269	236	505	44	263	27	8	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	30	AAA RAW	Iowa Cubs	—	443	373	84	7	1	4	53	96	5	35	6	225	329	282	611	56	288	22	12	282	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	31	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	418	379	88	11	2	1	25	110	6	35	10	232	290	280	570	47	321	26	6	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	31	AAA RAW	Buffalo Bisons	—	418	364	95	12	2	1	40	86	6	35	10	261	344	313	657	52	336	21	10	300	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	32	AAA MLE	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	—	88	81	13	1	1	1	6	27	1	3	2	160	227	235	462	74	226	31	7	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	32	AAA RAW	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	—	88	78	19	2	1	2	9	20	1	3	2	244	330	372	701	128	304	23	10	319	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	33	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	106	100	16	3	0	1	5	41	1	10	1	160	208	220	428	60	259	39	5	199	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	33	AAA RAW	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	106	97	20	4	0	2	8	34	1	10	1	206	274	309	583	103	295	32	8	267	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	22	A MLE	Lakewood BlueClaws	—	581	524	149	17	4	3	40	114	12	55	18	284	359	349	708	65	344	20	7	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	23	A+ MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	590	532	127	23	1	2	47	146	6	51	14	239	309	297	606	58	322	25	8	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	24	AA MLE	Reading Phillies	—	598	542	139	16	2	4	42	144	9	48	14	256	323	315	639	59	335	24	7	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	25	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	—	409	370	75	11	3	3	30	96	6	27	8	203	280	273	553	70	256	23	7	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	26	AA MLE	2 teams	—	397	357	88	15	1	5	34	110	3	42	7	246	318	336	654	90	338	28	9	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	517	462	114	17	6	2	40	138	10	40	3	247	323	323	646	76	344	27	8	292	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	28	AAA MLE	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	381	342	60	8	1	2	31	96	5	30	4	175	257	222	479	47	234	25	8	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	29	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	432	390	100	19	1	2	37	98	2	25	6	256	328	326	653	69	330	23	9	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	30	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	443	399	75	6	1	3	36	118	5	35	6	188	269	231	500	43	250	27	8	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	31	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	418	384	88	11	2	1	25	110	6	35	10	229	290	276	566	47	308	26	6	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	32	AAA MLE	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	—	88	81	13	1	1	1	6	27	1	3	2	160	227	235	462	74	232	31	7	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	33	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	106	99	16	3	0	1	5	41	1	10	1	162	208	222	430	61	256	39	5	199	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	330	291	75	10	6	2	25	80	7	21	0	258	331	354	685	96	348	24	8	306	68	-3	+4	-4	-6	+7	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	573	148	20	12	4	49	158	14	41	0	258	332	356	688	98	349	24	8	306	68	-5	+8	-7	-11	+14	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		—	4960	4421	1044	147	23	29	373	1238	66	401	93	236	305	299	605	63	319	25	8	268	68	-3	+4	-4	-6	+7	-0.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	579	137	19	3	4	49	162	9	53	12	237	306	301	607	64	319	25	8	268	68	-5	+8	-7	-11	+14	-0.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2018 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 106 PAwOBA .260 → .199 (−61)K% 32.1% → 38.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	32.08%	÷1.002	×1.200	—	—	38.43%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.55%	÷1.034	×0.690	—	×0.940	4.73%
HBP% /PA	0.94%	—	×0.940	—	×0.940	0.83%
Singles /BIP	22.22%	÷1.032	×0.930	×1.050	×0.940	19.77%
Doubles /BIP	6.35%	÷1.004	×0.830	×1.050	×0.940	5.18%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.130	×0.970	×1.050	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.17%	÷1.046	×0.840	—	×0.940	2.40%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 106, 2B 101, 3B 126, K 100, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 34 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .260 → .199; ISO .103 → .076; BABIP .295 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAAColorado Springs Sky Sox · 88 PAwOBA .310 → .220 (−91)K% 22.7% → 30.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.73%	÷0.953	×1.290	—	—	30.76%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.23%	÷0.995	×0.710	—	×0.942	6.87%
HBP% /PA	1.14%	—	×0.980	—	×0.942	1.05%
Singles /BIP	24.14%	÷1.018	×0.900	×0.960	×0.942	19.29%
Doubles /BIP	3.45%	÷1.163	×0.810	×0.960	×0.942	2.17%
Triples /BIP	1.72%	÷1.150	×0.810	×0.960	×0.942	1.10%
Home runs /BIP	3.45%	÷0.933	×0.780	—	×0.942	2.72%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 104, 2B 133, 3B 130, K 91, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 27.2 → −5.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.960.

Result: wOBA .310 → .220; ISO .128 → .087; BABIP .304 → .232. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAABuffalo Bisons · 418 PAwOBA .295 → .250 (−45)K% 20.6% → 26.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.57%	÷0.937	×1.200	—	—	26.34%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.57%	÷1.034	×0.690	—	×0.952	6.08%
HBP% /PA	1.44%	—	×0.940	—	×0.952	1.28%
Singles /BIP	28.78%	÷1.008	×0.930	×1.050	×0.952	26.54%
Doubles /BIP	4.32%	÷0.917	×0.830	×1.050	×0.952	3.90%
Triples /BIP	0.72%	÷1.150	×0.970	×1.050	×0.952	0.61%
Home runs /BIP	0.36%	÷1.164	×0.840	—	×0.952	0.25%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 133, 1B 102, 2B 83, 3B 130, K 87, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .295 → .250; ISO .052 → .045; BABIP .336 → .308. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAAIowa Cubs · 443 PAwOBA .278 → .230 (−48)K% 21.7% → 26.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.67%	÷1.051	×1.290	—	—	26.60%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.96%	÷0.996	×0.710	—	×0.962	8.20%
HBP% /PA	1.13%	—	×0.980	—	×0.962	1.06%
Singles /BIP	25.99%	÷1.008	×0.900	×1.022	×0.962	22.81%
Doubles /BIP	2.53%	÷0.984	×0.810	×1.022	×0.962	2.04%
Triples /BIP	0.36%	÷0.948	×0.810	×1.022	×0.962	0.30%
Home runs /BIP	1.44%	÷0.916	×0.780	—	×0.962	1.18%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 102, 2B 97, 3B 90, K 110, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.022.

Result: wOBA .278 → .230; ISO .056 → .047; BABIP .288 → .250. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 AAANorfolk Tides · 432 PAwOBA .334 → .290 (−44)K% 19.4% → 22.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.44%	÷1.025	×1.200	—	—	22.78%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.19%	÷1.025	×0.690	—	×0.972	8.64%
HBP% /PA	0.46%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	0.42%
Singles /BIP	28.83%	÷1.027	×0.930	×1.041	×0.972	26.41%
Doubles /BIP	6.76%	÷0.899	×0.830	×1.041	×0.972	6.31%
Triples /BIP	0.36%	÷1.007	×0.970	×1.041	×0.972	0.35%
Home runs /BIP	1.07%	÷1.223	×0.840	—	×0.972	0.71%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 145, 1B 105, 2B 80, 3B 101, K 105, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.041.

Result: wOBA .334 → .290; ISO .082 → .074; BABIP .359 → .330. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 381 PAwOBA .261 → .224 (−37)K% 21.3% → 25.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.26%	÷1.018	×1.200	—	—	25.07%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.86%	÷1.069	×0.690	—	×0.982	8.15%
HBP% /PA	1.31%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	1.21%
Singles /BIP	19.75%	÷0.964	×0.930	×1.050	×0.982	19.63%
Doubles /BIP	4.20%	÷1.083	×0.830	×1.050	×0.982	3.32%
Triples /BIP	0.42%	÷0.957	×0.970	×1.050	×0.982	0.44%
Home runs /BIP	1.26%	÷1.068	×0.840	—	×0.982	0.97%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 114, 1B 93, 2B 117, 3B 91, K 104, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .261 → .224; ISO .066 → .056; BABIP .245 → .234. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2012 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 187 PAwOBA .312 → .260 (−53)K% 24.6% → 31.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.60%	÷0.952	×1.200	—	—	31.01%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.76%	÷0.988	×0.690	—	×0.992	8.15%
HBP% /PA	1.60%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	1.50%
Singles /BIP	30.97%	÷1.045	×0.930	×1.032	×0.992	28.21%
Doubles /BIP	7.08%	÷1.015	×0.830	×1.032	×0.992	5.93%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	×1.032	×0.992	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.913	×0.840	—	×0.992	0.00%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 109, 2B 103, 3B 80, K 90, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.032.

Result: wOBA .312 → .260; ISO .050 → .041; BABIP .377 → .338. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2011 AACarolina Mudcats · 378 PAwOBA .355 → .302 (−54)K% 22.0% → 27.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.96%	÷0.969	×1.220	—	—	27.66%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.23%	÷0.968	×0.680	—	×0.978	9.08%
HBP% /PA	0.79%	—	×0.840	—	×0.978	0.65%
Singles /BIP	30.25%	÷1.018	×0.920	×1.050	×0.978	28.07%
Doubles /BIP	6.72%	÷1.012	×0.910	×1.050	×0.978	6.21%
Triples /BIP	0.42%	÷1.150	×0.880	×1.050	×0.978	0.33%
Home runs /BIP	2.52%	÷0.941	×0.800	—	×0.978	2.10%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 104, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 94, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .355 → .302; ISO .112 → .097; BABIP .382 → .352. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).