Drew Stubbs

PosCF

B/TR/R

Born1984-10-04

Age (2027)42

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

AAALAST SEASON 2017

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2015	30	AAATEX	195	.256/.368/.360	2	10	56	—	.202/.285/.277
2015	30	MLBTEX	140	.195/.283/.382	5	5	73	0.2
2016	31	AAATEX	51	.231/.388/.487	2	2	93	—	.186/.286/.395
2016	31	MLBBAL	94	.225/.333/.338	3	9	89	-0.2
2017	32	AAATEX	368	.292/.398/.446	9	10	65	—	.205/.283/.302
2017	32	MLBSF	24	.091/.167/.091	0	0	-23	-0.1
2018	33	No MLB games played
2019	34	No MLB games played
2020	35	No MLB games played
2021	36	No MLB games played
2022	37	No MLB games played
2023	38	No MLB games played
2024	39	No MLB games played
2025	40	No MLB games played
2026	41	No MLB games played

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.1

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2015-2017

Speed90

Avg EV40

Barrel%39

xwOBA10

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2006	21	ROK	Billings Mustangs	—	252	210	53	7	3	6	32	64	7	19	4	252	369	400	769	148	333	25	13	346	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	22	A	Dayton Dragons	—	575	497	134	29	5	12	69	142	6	23	15	270	365	421	786	151	354	25	12	352	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	23	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	84	75	22	4	2	2	6	20	1	3	0	293	354	480	834	187	377	24	7	359	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	23	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	106	92	29	8	0	0	11	21	2	3	1	315	400	402	802	87	408	20	10	362	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	23	A+	Sarasota Reds	—	358	303	79	21	4	5	50	82	2	27	8	261	369	406	775	145	338	23	14	348	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	24	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	196	180	48	5	1	8	15	49	0	10	4	267	323	439	762	172	325	25	8	336	114	+3	+0	+7	+2	+4	1.8
2009	24	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	472	411	110	25	2	3	51	104	4	46	8	268	354	360	714	92	350	22	11	323	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	25	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	583	514	131	19	6	22	55	168	5	30	6	255	333	444	776	189	330	29	9	340	109	+6	+4	+3	+2	+13	2.8
2011	26	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	681	604	147	22	3	15	63	205	7	40	10	243	322	364	686	121	343	30	9	309	91	-7	+4	-1	+2	+15	1.3
2012	27	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	544	493	105	13	2	14	42	166	2	30	7	213	277	333	610	120	290	31	8	273	67	-21	+3	+10	+2	+12	0.6
2013	28	MLB	Cleveland Indians	—	481	430	100	21	2	10	44	141	2	17	2	233	307	360	667	128	319	29	9	299	88	-7	+3	-3	-5	+10	-0.2
2014	29	MLB	Colorado Rockies	—	424	388	112	22	4	15	30	136	1	20	3	289	341	482	823	193	404	32	7	358	115	+7	+3	+1	+2	+9	2.3
2015	30	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	140	123	24	4	2	5	14	60	1	5	1	195	283	382	665	187	328	43	10	293	73	-4	+1	+2	+1	+3	0.2
2015	30	AAA	Round Rock Express	—	195	164	42	5	3	2	27	46	2	10	3	256	368	360	728	104	339	24	14	332	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	31	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	94	80	18	0	0	3	12	38	1	9	1	225	333	338	671	113	375	40	13	308	89	-1	+1	-3	-2	+2	-0.2
2016	31	AAA	Round Rock Express	—	51	39	9	4	0	2	10	8	0	2	1	231	388	487	875	256	226	16	20	372	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	32	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	24	22	2	0	0	0	2	9	0	0	0	91	167	91	258		154	38	8	134	-23	-4	+0	+1	+1	+1	-0.1
2017	32	AAA	Round Rock Express	—	368	312	91	17	2	9	52	104	3	10	6	292	398	446	843	154	410	28	14	378	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	3167	2834	687	106	20	92	277	972	19	161	34	242	314	391	705	149	333	31	9	313	98	-7	+19	+16	+6	+69	10.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2006	21	ROK MLE	Billings Mustangs	—	252	223	40	5	2	4	19	92	7	19	4	179	265	274	539	94	266	37	8	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	22	A MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	575	519	109	22	4	9	47	193	6	23	15	210	283	320	603	110	309	34	8	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	23	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	84	77	22	4	2	2	4	24	1	3	0	286	329	468	797	182	366	29	5	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	23	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	106	95	27	7	0	0	8	26	2	3	1	284	352	358	710	74	378	25	8	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	23	A+ MLE	Sarasota Reds	—	358	317	66	18	3	4	36	116	2	27	8	208	293	322	615	114	307	32	10	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	24	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	196	180	48	5	1	8	15	49	0	10	4	267	323	439	762	172	325	25	8	336	114	+3	+0	+7	+2	+4	1.8
2009	24	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	472	426	102	21	2	3	36	125	4	46	8	239	305	319	624	80	325	26	8	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	25	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	583	516	129	19	6	20	53	168	5	30	6	250	326	426	752	176	330	29	9	329	109	+6	+4	+3	+2	+13	2.8
2011	26	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	681	605	145	22	3	14	62	205	7	40	10	240	318	355	673	116	343	30	9	302	91	-7	+4	-1	+2	+15	1.3
2012	27	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	544	493	104	13	2	13	42	166	2	30	7	211	276	325	600	114	290	31	8	267	67	-21	+3	+10	+2	+12	0.6
2013	28	MLB MLE	Cleveland Indians	—	481	431	100	21	2	10	43	141	2	17	2	232	305	360	664	128	319	29	9	298	88	-7	+3	-3	-5	+10	-0.2
2014	29	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	424	389	106	21	3	13	29	136	1	20	3	272	325	442	767	170	404	32	7	338	115	+7	+3	+1	+2	+9	2.3
2015	30	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	140	124	24	4	2	5	13	60	1	5	1	194	275	379	654	185	328	43	9	276	73	-4	+1	+2	+1	+3	0.2
2015	30	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	—	195	173	35	4	3	1	18	58	2	10	3	202	285	277	562	75	279	30	9	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	31	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	94	80	18	0	0	3	12	38	1	9	1	225	333	338	671	113	375	40	13	300	89	-1	+1	-3	-2	+2	-0.2
2016	31	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	—	51	43	8	3	0	2	6	10	0	2	1	186	286	395	681	209	179	20	12	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	32	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	24	22	2	0	0	0	2	9	0	0	0	91	167	91	258		154	38	8	135	-23	-4	+0	+1	+1	+1	-0.1
2017	32	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	—	368	331	68	12	1	6	33	130	3	10	6	205	283	302	585	97	318	35	9	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	21	ROK MLE	Billings Mustangs	—	252	223	40	5	2	4	19	92	7	19	4	179	265	274	539	94	281	37	8	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	21	ROK RAW	Billings Mustangs	—	252	210	53	7	3	6	32	64	7	19	4	252	369	400	769	148	333	25	13	346	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	22	A MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	575	519	109	22	4	9	47	193	6	23	15	210	283	320	603	110	313	34	8	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	22	A RAW	Dayton Dragons	—	575	497	134	29	5	12	69	142	6	23	15	270	365	421	786	151	354	25	12	352	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	23	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	548	489	114	29	5	6	48	166	5	33	9	233	308	350	658	117	338	30	9	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	23	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	548	470	130	33	6	7	67	123	5	33	9	277	373	417	790	140	359	22	12	352	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	668	606	150	26	3	11	51	174	4	56	12	248	310	355	665	107	329	26	8	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	24	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	668	591	158	30	3	11	66	153	4	56	12	267	345	384	729	117	343	23	10	327	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	25	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	583	516	129	19	6	20	53	168	5	30	6	250	326	426	752	176	326	29	9	329	109	+6	+4	+3	+2	+13	2.8
2010	25	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	—	583	514	131	19	6	22	55	168	5	30	6	255	333	444	776	189	330	29	9	340	109	+6	+4	+3	+2	+13	2.8
2011	26	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	681	605	145	22	3	14	62	205	7	40	10	240	318	355	673	116	339	30	9	302	91	-7	+4	-1	+2	+15	1.3
2011	26	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	—	681	604	147	22	3	15	63	205	7	40	10	243	322	364	686	121	343	30	9	309	91	-7	+4	-1	+2	+15	1.3
2012	27	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	544	493	104	13	2	13	42	166	2	30	7	211	276	325	600	114	289	31	8	267	67	-21	+3	+10	+2	+12	0.6
2012	27	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	—	544	493	105	13	2	14	42	166	2	30	7	213	277	333	610	120	290	31	8	273	67	-21	+3	+10	+2	+12	0.6
2013	28	MLB MLE	Cleveland Indians	—	481	431	100	21	2	10	43	141	2	17	2	232	305	360	664	128	318	29	9	298	88	-7	+3	-3	-5	+10	-0.2
2013	28	MLB RAW	Cleveland Indians	—	481	430	100	21	2	10	44	141	2	17	2	233	307	360	667	128	319	29	9	299	88	-7	+3	-3	-5	+10	-0.2
2014	29	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	424	389	106	21	3	13	29	136	1	20	3	272	325	442	767	170	383	32	7	338	115	+7	+3	+1	+2	+9	2.3
2014	29	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	—	424	388	112	22	4	15	30	136	1	20	3	289	341	482	823	193	404	32	7	358	115	+7	+3	+1	+2	+9	2.3
2015	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	335	297	57	7	4	6	31	118	3	15	4	192	275	303	578	111	291	35	9	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	30	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	335	287	66	9	5	7	41	106	3	15	4	230	332	369	702	139	335	32	12	316	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	31	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	145	123	26	3	0	5	18	48	1	11	2	211	317	358	675	146	288	33	12	302	90	-2	+1	-3	-2	+3	-0.1
2016	31	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	145	119	27	4	0	5	22	46	1	11	2	227	352	387	739	160	310	32	15	330	90	-2	+1	-3	-2	+3	-0.1
2017	32	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	392	353	70	12	1	6	35	139	3	10	6	198	276	289	565	91	306	35	9	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	32	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	392	334	93	17	2	9	54	113	3	10	6	278	384	422	806	144	394	29	14	363	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	21	ROK MLE	Billings Mustangs	—	252	224	40	5	2	4	19	92	7	19	4	179	265	272	537	94	266	37	8	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	22	A MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	575	517	109	22	4	9	47	193	6	23	15	211	283	321	604	110	309	34	8	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	23	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	548	490	114	29	5	6	48	166	5	33	9	233	308	349	657	116	330	30	9	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	668	608	150	26	3	11	51	174	4	56	12	247	310	354	664	107	325	26	8	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	25	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	583	520	129	19	6	20	53	168	5	30	6	248	326	423	749	175	330	29	9	329	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	26	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	681	607	145	22	3	14	62	205	7	40	10	239	318	354	672	115	343	30	9	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	27	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	544	495	104	13	2	13	42	166	2	30	7	210	276	323	599	113	290	31	8	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	28	MLB MLE	Cleveland Indians	—	481	433	100	21	2	10	43	141	2	17	2	231	305	358	663	127	319	29	9	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	29	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	424	391	106	21	3	13	29	136	1	20	3	271	325	440	764	169	404	32	7	338	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	335	298	57	7	4	6	31	118	3	15	4	191	275	302	577	111	299	35	9	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	31	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	145	125	26	3	0	5	18	48	1	11	2	208	317	352	669	144	306	33	12	302	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	32	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	392	351	70	12	1	6	35	139	3	10	6	199	276	291	567	91	308	35	9	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3167	2834	687	106	20	92	277	972	19	161	34	242	314	391	705	149	333	31	9	313	82	-7	+19	+16	+6	+69	10.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	582	141	22	4	19	57	199	4	33	7	242	315	392	706	149	332	31	9	313	82	-2	+4	+3	+1	+14	2.1
Career	—	MLE		—	5628	5044	1150	200	35	117	478	1746	46	304	80	228	301	351	652	123	322	31	8	289	82	-7	+19	+16	+6	+69	10.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	583	133	23	4	14	55	202	5	35	9	228	300	353	654	125	322	31	8	289	82	-2	+4	+3	+1	+14	2.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2017 AAARound Rock Express · 368 PAwOBA .369 → .265 (−104)K% 28.3% → 35.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.26%	÷1.033	×1.290	—	—	35.29%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.86%	÷1.037	×0.710	—	×0.942	8.94%
HBP% /PA	0.82%	—	×0.980	—	×0.942	0.75%
Singles /BIP	30.29%	÷1.039	×0.900	×0.988	×0.942	24.42%
Doubles /BIP	8.17%	÷1.039	×0.810	×0.988	×0.942	5.93%
Triples /BIP	0.96%	÷1.046	×0.810	×0.988	×0.942	0.69%
Home runs /BIP	4.33%	÷1.117	×0.780	—	×0.942	2.85%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 123, 1B 108, 2B 108, 3B 109, K 107, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 27.2 → −5.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.

Result: wOBA .369 → .265; ISO .154 → .103; BABIP .410 → .318. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAARound Rock Express · 51 PAwOBA .378 → .305 (−73)K% 15.7% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.69%	÷1.004	×1.290	—	—	20.16%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	19.61%	÷1.039	×0.710	—	×0.952	12.75%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×0.952	0.00%
Singles /BIP	9.68%	÷0.949	×0.900	—	×0.952	8.74%
Doubles /BIP	12.90%	÷1.079	×0.810	—	×0.952	9.23%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.977	×0.810	—	×0.952	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.45%	÷0.839	×0.780	—	×0.952	5.71%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 68, 1B 90, 2B 116, 3B 95, K 101, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .378 → .305; ISO .256 → .231; BABIP .226 → .179. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAARound Rock Express · 195 PAwOBA .327 → .251 (−76)K% 23.6% → 29.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.59%	÷1.031	×1.290	—	—	29.52%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.85%	÷1.014	×0.710	—	×0.962	9.33%
HBP% /PA	1.03%	—	×0.980	—	×0.962	0.97%
Singles /BIP	27.12%	÷1.007	×0.900	×0.977	×0.962	22.78%
Doubles /BIP	4.24%	÷1.029	×0.810	×0.977	×0.962	3.13%
Triples /BIP	2.54%	÷0.900	×0.810	×0.977	×0.962	2.15%
Home runs /BIP	1.69%	÷1.184	×0.780	—	×0.962	1.07%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 137, 1B 101, 2B 106, 3B 80, K 106, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.

Result: wOBA .327 → .251; ISO .104 → .076; BABIP .339 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2009 AAALouisville Bats · 472 PAwOBA .316 → .276 (−40)K% 22.0% → 26.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.03%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	26.44%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.81%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.033	7.70%
HBP% /PA	0.85%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	0.82%
Singles /BIP	26.06%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.992	×1.033	24.82%
Doubles /BIP	8.14%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.992	×1.033	6.92%
Triples /BIP	0.65%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.992	×1.033	0.65%
Home runs /BIP	0.98%	÷1.000	×0.840	—	×1.033	0.85%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.992.

Result: wOBA .316 → .276; ISO .092 → .080; BABIP .350 → .325. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2008 A+Sarasota Reds · 358 PAwOBA .341 → .276 (−65)K% 22.9% → 32.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.91%	÷1.000	×1.420	—	—	32.53%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.69%	÷1.000	×0.750	—	×0.988	10.14%
HBP% /PA	0.56%	—	×0.930	—	×0.988	0.51%
Singles /BIP	22.17%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.997	×0.988	20.10%
Doubles /BIP	9.50%	÷1.000	×0.960	×0.997	×0.988	8.99%
Triples /BIP	1.81%	÷1.000	×0.810	×0.997	×0.988	1.44%
Home runs /BIP	2.26%	÷1.000	×0.880	—	×0.988	1.97%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.997.

Result: wOBA .341 → .276; ISO .145 → .119; BABIP .338 → .307. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2008 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 106 PAwOBA .354 → .309 (−44)K% 19.8% → 24.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.81%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	24.17%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.38%	÷1.000	×0.680	—	×1.012	7.14%
HBP% /PA	1.89%	—	×0.840	—	×1.012	1.60%
Singles /BIP	29.58%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.997	×1.012	27.45%
Doubles /BIP	11.27%	÷1.000	×0.910	×0.997	×1.012	10.34%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.880	×0.997	×1.012	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.012	0.00%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.997.

Result: wOBA .354 → .309; ISO .087 → .080; BABIP .408 → .378. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2008 AAALouisville Bats · 84 PAwOBA .349 → .321 (−28)K% 23.8% → 28.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.81%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	28.57%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.14%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.048	5.17%
HBP% /PA	1.19%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	1.17%
Singles /BIP	25.45%	÷1.000	×0.930	×1.018	×1.048	25.26%
Doubles /BIP	7.27%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.018	×1.048	6.44%
Triples /BIP	3.64%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.018	×1.048	3.76%
Home runs /BIP	3.64%	÷1.000	×0.840	—	×1.048	3.20%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.018.

Result: wOBA .349 → .321; ISO .187 → .172; BABIP .377 → .366. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2007 ADayton Dragons · 575 PAwOBA .344 → .266 (−78)K% 24.7% → 33.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.70%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	33.59%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.83%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.990	8.08%
HBP% /PA	1.04%	—	×0.780	—	×0.990	0.81%
Singles /BIP	24.79%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.991	×0.990	22.36%
Doubles /BIP	8.17%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.991	×0.990	6.65%
Triples /BIP	1.41%	÷1.000	×0.910	×0.991	×0.990	1.26%
Home runs /BIP	3.38%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×0.990	2.68%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.991.

Result: wOBA .344 → .266; ISO .151 → .114; BABIP .354 → .309. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).