Austin Slater

RF Durham Bulls
Age 34 R/R 6'1" / 205 lbs AAA HR -6%H +4% Svc 8.215 · Ctrl thru 2027
Overview
AAAExt / FA-dealFA 2028
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202431MLBBAL212.209/.327/.2662373-0.6
202532AAAScranton/Wilk…35.296/.457/.3330082—.267/.371/.300
202532MLBNYY160.216/.270/.3725176-0.3
202633AAATB194.283/.387/.3983375—.232/.299/.311
202633MLBTB74.231/.315/.2770471-0.3
2027PROJ10% MLB34MLBTB16.239/.316/.34900890.0
2028PROJ35MLBTB121.227/.304/.3252179-0.7
Last 3 seasons WAR -1.2  ·  Next 2 projected WAR -0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2027Service8.215First FA2028
2027Ext / FA-deal$1M
Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026
Speed60
Bat Spd57
Avg EV49
xwOBA46
Barrel%42
CompsRyan LaMarre (age 34) · Matt Carson (age 34) · Charlie Culberson (age 34)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†vL 9289vR 79
AVG/OBP/SLG.239 / .316 / .349
PA16
HR0
K%25
BB%12
BABIP322
ISO71
MLB%10%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -2.0 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-2BATRUN: +0.4 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +0.8 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+1FLDPOS: -1.7 runs (Positional adjustment)-2POSREP: +3.4 runs (Replacement-level credit)+3REPTotal WAR: +0.10+0.1WAR
trajectory · projected WAR by year
0.1-0.72728
Tools · Splits · ContractCON 50 / POW 50
Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026
CONTACT50
xAVG
220.229
POWER50
Barrel%
427.1
Avg EV
4989.0
Bat Spd
5772.1
EYE60
scouting grade only
SPEED55
Sprint
6027.9
Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 398 PA
vs LHP
vs RHP
Edge
PA
261
137
—
wRC+
71
71
—
wOBA
273
273
—
ISO
099
081
◀◀L
BABIP
257
352
▶▶R
K%
28.4%
33.6%
◀◀L
BB%
11.1%
8.0%
◀◀L
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   FA
MLB Debut   2017
Service   8.215 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2027
First FA Year   2028
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Ext / FA-deal$1M+0.0$0.0M-$1.0M
Totals $1M $0.0M -$1.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
201522 AARichmond Flying Squirrels — 218199 591110 14483 11 296352362714 65388 226 322 84 — — — — — —
201522 A+San Jose Giants — 265250 731513 10442 43 292324396720 104340 174 319 70 — — — — — —
201522 INTLScottsdale Scorpions — 8068 17410 10190 31 250346338684 88333 2412 307 94 — — — — — —
201623 AAASacramento River Cats — 278245 7312013 33530 26 298381506887 208335 1912 392 109 — — — — — —
201623 AARichmond Flying Squirrels — 172145 46815 24361 61 317418490907 172387 2114 400 122 — — — — — —
201724 MLBSan Francisco Giants — 127117 33313 8292 00 282339402740 120353 236 333 116 +2 +0 -1 -4 +3 0.1
201724 AAASacramento River Cats — 206184 591205 15393 43 321381467849 147380 197 371 105 — — — — — —
201825 MLBSan Francisco Giants — 225199 50611 20695 70 251335307641 55377 319 298 86 -4 +1 -3 -5 +5 -0.6
201825 AAASacramento River Cats — 223195 672425 21395 82 344421564985 221405 179 428 143 — — — — — —
201926 MLBSan Francisco Giants — 192168 40935 22592 10 238333417750 179337 3111 336 115 +3 +0 +0 -5 +4 0.3
201926 AAASacramento River Cats — 296240 7417012 46699 62 308437529966 221388 2316 426 112 — — — — — —
202027 MLBSan Francisco Giants — 10485 24215 16222 81 282408506914 224328 2115 401 164 +8 +1 -0 -1 +2 1.0
202128 MLBSan Francisco Giants — 306274 6612112 28844 152 241320423744 182303 279 332 113 +5 +2 +1 +1 +7 1.6
202229 MLBSan Francisco Giants — 325277 731527 40896 121 264368408776 144361 2712 350 127 +10 +2 -1 +1 +7 2.0
202330 MLBSan Francisco Giants — 207185 50905 20582 22 270348400748 130369 2810 338 119 +5 -0 -0 +1 +4 1.0
202330 AAASacramento River Cats — 2421 7101 370 10 333417524940 190462 2912 416 105 — — — — — —
202431 MLBBaltimore Orioles — 212177 37402 26605 32 209327266592 56294 2812 279 73 -7 -0 -1 -2 +5 -0.6
202431 AAASacramento River Cats — 1817 4001 140 10 235278412690 176250 226 305 42 — — — — — —
202532 MLBNew York Yankees — 160148 32615 11510 10 216270372642 155293 327 284 76 -5 +0 +0 -2 +3 -0.3
202532 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders — 3527 8100 870 00 296457333790 37400 2023 377 82 — — — — — —
202633 MLBTampa Bay Rays — 7465 15300 8210 40 231315277592 46333 2811 274 71 -3 +1 +0 -3 +2 -0.3
202633 AAADurham Bulls — 194166 471003 28510 31 283387398784 114393 2614 358 75 — — — — — —
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 19321695 420691045 19954228 538 248337380717 132336 2810 324 105 +12 +7 -5 -19 +42 3.8
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
201522 AA MLERichmond Flying Squirrels — 218203 571010 10583 11 281324340664 59387 275 293 84 — — — — — —
201522 A+ MLESan Jose Giants — 265253 661113 7602 43 261286348634 87318 233 271 70 — — — — — —
201623 AAA MLESacramento River Cats — 278255 7011010 23660 26 275335435770 161332 248 330 109 — — — — — —
201623 AA MLERichmond Flying Squirrels — 172154 47814 15451 61 305371448819 143384 269 349 122 — — — — — —
201724 MLB MLESan Francisco Giants — 127117 33313 8292 00 282339402740 120353 236 340 116 +2 +0 -1 -4 +3 0.1
201724 AAA MLESacramento River Cats — 206187 531004 12513 43 283337401738 118356 256 324 105 — — — — — —
201825 MLB MLESan Francisco Giants — 225201 51611 18695 70 254330308639 55377 318 295 86 -4 +1 -3 -5 +5 -0.6
201825 AAA MLESacramento River Cats — 223202 652324 14475 82 322380515895 193390 216 380 143 — — — — — —
201926 MLB MLESan Francisco Giants — 192169 40935 21592 10 237328414742 178337 3111 338 115 +3 +0 +0 -5 +4 0.3
201926 AAA MLESacramento River Cats — 296253 621309 33929 62 245353403756 158342 3111 333 112 — — — — — —
202027 MLB MLESan Francisco Giants — 10485 24215 16222 81 282408506914 224328 2115 411 164 +8 +1 -0 -1 +2 1.0
202128 MLB MLESan Francisco Giants — 306276 6812113 26844 152 246320438759 192303 278 336 113 +5 +2 +1 +1 +7 1.6
202229 MLB MLESan Francisco Giants — 325277 751528 40896 121 271375426801 155361 2712 355 127 +10 +2 -1 +1 +7 2.0
202330 MLB MLESan Francisco Giants — 207185 51905 20582 22 276353405758 130369 2810 344 119 +5 -0 -0 +1 +4 1.0
202330 AAA MLESacramento River Cats — 2422 7101 280 10 318375500875 182398 338 323 105 — — — — — —
202431 MLB MLEBaltimore Orioles — 212177 37402 26605 32 209327266592 56294 2812 276 73 -7 -0 -1 -2 +5 -0.6
202431 AAA MLESacramento River Cats — 1817 4001 140 10 235278412690 176221 226 230 42 — — — — — —
202532 MLB MLENew York Yankees — 160148 32615 11510 10 216270372642 155293 327 281 76 -5 +0 +0 -2 +3 -0.3
202532 AAA MLEScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders — 3530 8100 590 00 267371300671 33342 2614 290 82 — — — — — —
202633 MLB MLETampa Bay Rays — 7465 15300 8210 40 231315277592 46333 2811 272 71 -3 +1 +0 -3 +2 -0.3
202633 AAA MLEDurham Bulls — 194177 41802 17610 31 232299311610 79349 319 279 75 — — — — — —
201522 A+ MLE3 teams — 563531 1432523 201385 85 269302341643 72354 254 281 76 — — — — — —
201522 A+ RAW3 teams — 563517 1493033 341115 85 288338375713 87357 206 318 76 — — — — — —
201623 AAA MLE2 teams — 450410 11518114 371111 87 280342432773 151352 258 337 114 — — — — — —
201623 AAA RAW2 teams — 450390 11920118 57891 87 305395500895 195354 2013 395 114 — — — — — —
201724 AAA MLE2 teams — 333304 871318 20805 43 286340414755 128362 246 330 109 — — — — — —
201724 AAA RAW2 teams — 333301 921518 23685 43 306365442807 136370 207 357 109 — — — — — —
201825 MLB MLE2 teams — 448403 1162935 3211610 152 288355412767 124389 267 337 114 +8 +2 -3 -5 +10 1.2
201825 MLB RAW2 teams — 448394 1173036 4110810 152 297378434812 137392 249 362 114 +8 +2 -3 -5 +10 1.2
201926 AAA MLE2 teams — 488422 10222314 5415111 72 242343408750 166341 3111 335 113 — — — — — —
201926 AAA RAW2 teams — 488408 11426317 6812811 72 279396483879 203367 2614 391 113 — — — — — —
202027 MLB MLESan Francisco Giants — 10485 24215 16222 81 282408506914 224328 2115 411 164 +8 +1 -0 -1 +2 1.0
202027 MLB RAWSan Francisco Giants — 10485 24215 16222 81 282408506914 224328 2115 401 164 +8 +1 -0 -1 +2 1.0
202128 MLB MLESan Francisco Giants — 306276 6812113 26844 152 246320438759 192307 278 336 113 +5 +2 +1 +1 +7 1.6
202128 MLB RAWSan Francisco Giants — 306274 6612112 28844 152 241320423744 182303 279 332 113 +5 +2 +1 +1 +7 1.6
202229 MLB MLESan Francisco Giants — 325277 751528 40896 121 271375426801 155368 2712 355 127 +10 +2 -1 +1 +7 2.0
202229 MLB RAWSan Francisco Giants — 325277 731527 40896 121 264368408776 144361 2712 350 127 +10 +2 -1 +1 +7 2.0
202330 MLB MLE2 teams — 231207 571006 22662 32 275351411761 135378 2910 342 118 +5 -0 -0 +1 +5 1.1
202330 MLB RAW2 teams — 231206 571006 23652 32 277355413768 136378 2810 346 118 +5 -0 -0 +1 +5 1.1
202431 MLB MLE2 teams — 230194 40403 27645 42 206319273592 67282 2812 273 71 -8 +0 -1 -2 +5 -0.7
202431 MLB RAW2 teams — 230194 41403 27645 42 211323278601 67290 2812 281 71 -8 +0 -1 -2 +5 -0.7
202532 MLB MLE2 teams — 195178 40715 16600 10 225289360648 135310 318 282 77 -5 +0 +0 -2 +4 -0.3
202532 MLB RAW2 teams — 195175 40715 19580 10 229304366670 137312 3010 301 77 -5 +0 +0 -2 +4 -0.3
202633 AAA MLE2 teams — 268242 561102 25820 71 231303302605 70340 319 277 74 — — — — — —
202633 AAA RAW2 teams — 268231 621303 36720 71 268367364731 95376 2713 335 74 — — — — — —
201522 A+ MLE3 teams — 563533 1432523 201385 85 268302340642 71349 254 281 76 — — — — — —
201623 AAA MLE2 teams — 450409 11518114 371111 87 281342433774 152352 258 337 114 — — — — — —
201724 AAA MLE2 teams — 333305 871318 20805 43 285340413754 128355 246 330 109 — — — — — —
201825 MLB MLE2 teams — 448403 1162935 3211610 152 288355412767 124383 267 337 114 — — — — — —
201926 AAA MLE2 teams — 488420 10222314 5415111 72 243343410752 167340 3111 335 113 — — — — — —
202027 MLB MLESan Francisco Giants — 10485 24215 16222 81 282408506914 224328 2115 411 164 — — — — — —
202128 MLB MLESan Francisco Giants — 306273 6812113 26844 152 249320443763 194303 278 336 113 — — — — — —
202229 MLB MLESan Francisco Giants — 325276 751528 40896 121 272375428802 156361 2712 355 127 — — — — — —
202330 MLB MLE2 teams — 231205 571006 22662 32 278351415765 137372 2910 342 118 — — — — — —
202431 MLB MLE2 teams — 230196 40403 27645 42 204319270589 66288 2812 273 71 — — — — — —
202532 MLB MLE2 teams — 195177 40715 16600 10 226289362650 136302 318 282 77 — — — — — —
202633 AAA MLE2 teams — 268241 561102 25820 71 232303303606 71345 319 277 74 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202431 MLB MLE2 teams — 230196 40403 27645 42 204319270589 66288 2812 273 71 — — — — — —
202532 MLB MLE2 teams — 195177 40715 16600 10 226289362650 136302 318 282 77 — — — — — —
202633 AAA MLE2 teams — 268241 561102 25820 71 232303303606 71345 319 277 74 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202734 MLB MLETB 10% 251224 541015 24701 51 237314349664 113319 2810 300 89 -3 +1 +1 -3 +5 0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202734 MLB CTXTB 10% 1614 3100 240 00 239316349666 111322 2512 301 89 -0 +0 +0 -0 +0 0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202835 MLB MLETB 100% 121108 24402 11351 10 225302325627 100308 299 285 79 -3 +0 -5 -1 +3 -0.7
202835 MLB CTXTB 100% 121108 24402 11351 10 227304325629 98311 299 286 79 -3 +0 -5 -1 +3 -0.7
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 20531803 444731047 21057729 548 246334376711 130334 2810 322 102 +9 +8 -10 -20 +44 3.1
/ 162G— A+C — 650571 14023315 661839 173 245333375708 130332 2810 322 102 +3 +2 -3 -6 +14 1.0
Career— MLE — 42183776 9801781591 361114153 9629 260333387720 127346 279 320 102 +7 +8 -9 -22 +48 3.2
/ 162G— MLE — 650582 15027214 561768 154 258332383715 125343 279 320 102 +2 +2 -3 -6 +14 0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAADurham Bulls · 194 PAwOBA .347 → .279 (−68)K% 26.3% → 31.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA26.29%÷1.000×1.200——31.55%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.92%÷1.000×0.690—×0.9409.03%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×0.9400.00%
Singles /BIP29.57%÷1.000×0.930×1.050×0.94027.14%
Doubles /BIP8.70%÷1.000×0.830×1.050×0.9407.12%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.970×1.050×0.9400.00%
Home runs /BIP2.61%÷1.000×0.700—×0.9401.72%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 34 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .347 → .279; ISO .114 → .085; BABIP .393 → .349. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 35 PAwOBA .369 → .290 (−80)K% 20.0% → 24.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.00%÷0.979×1.200——24.53%
BB% (unintentional) /PA22.86%÷1.078×0.690—×0.94213.78%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×0.9420.00%
Singles /BIP35.00%÷1.008×0.930—×0.94230.41%
Doubles /BIP5.00%÷1.020×0.830—×0.9423.83%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.944×0.970—×0.9420.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.070×0.700—×0.9420.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 114, 1B 102, 2B 104, 3B 89, K 96, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 27.2 → −5.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .369 → .290; ISO .037 → .031; BABIP .400 → .342. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAASacramento River Cats · 18 PAwOBA .296 → .230 (−67)K% 22.2% → 24.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.22%÷1.081×1.200——24.67%
BB% (unintentional) /PA5.56%÷1.032×0.690—×0.9523.54%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×0.9520.00%
Singles /BIP23.08%÷0.976×0.930—×0.95220.93%
Doubles /BIP0.00%÷1.052×0.830—×0.9520.00%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.091×0.970—×0.9520.00%
Home runs /BIP7.69%÷1.010×0.700—×0.9525.07%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 95, 2B 110, 3B 118, K 116, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .296 → .230; ISO .176 → .116; BABIP .250 → .221. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAASacramento River Cats · 24 PAwOBA .405 → .323 (−82)K% 29.2% → 32.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA29.17%÷1.087×1.200——32.20%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.50%÷0.981×0.690—×0.9628.46%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×0.9620.00%
Singles /BIP35.71%÷0.992×0.930—×0.96232.20%
Doubles /BIP7.14%÷0.992×0.830—×0.9625.75%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.956×0.970—×0.9620.00%
Home runs /BIP7.14%÷1.057×0.700—×0.9624.55%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 98, 2B 98, 3B 91, K 117, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .405 → .323; ISO .190 → .132; BABIP .462 → .398. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAASacramento River Cats · 296 PAwOBA .416 → .333 (−83)K% 23.3% → 31.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA23.31%÷0.971×1.290——30.96%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.20%÷0.980×0.710—×1.00311.04%
HBP% /PA3.04%—×0.980—×1.0032.99%
Singles /BIP26.32%÷0.982×0.900×1.006×1.00324.32%
Doubles /BIP9.94%÷0.981×0.810×1.006×1.0038.28%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.008×0.810×1.006×1.0030.00%
Home runs /BIP7.02%÷1.027×0.780—×1.0035.35%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 96, 2B 96, 3B 102, K 94, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.

Result: wOBA .416 → .333; ISO .221 → .165; BABIP .388 → .342. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAASacramento River Cats · 223 PAwOBA .420 → .380 (−40)K% 17.5% → 21.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA17.49%÷1.071×1.290——21.06%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.42%÷1.043×0.710—×1.0186.53%
HBP% /PA2.24%—×0.980—×1.0182.24%
Singles /BIP23.08%÷0.963×0.900×1.045×1.01822.94%
Doubles /BIP15.38%÷0.910×0.810×1.045×1.01814.56%
Triples /BIP1.28%÷1.150×0.810×1.045×1.0180.96%
Home runs /BIP3.21%÷0.998×0.780—×1.0182.55%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 93, 2B 82, 3B 130, K 114, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.045.

Result: wOBA .420 → .380; ISO .221 → .194; BABIP .405 → .390. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAASacramento River Cats · 206 PAwOBA .365 → .324 (−41)K% 18.9% → 24.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.93%÷0.989×1.290——24.69%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.28%÷0.952×0.710—×1.0335.61%
HBP% /PA1.46%—×0.980—×1.0331.47%
Singles /BIP28.97%÷1.027×0.900×1.050×1.03327.53%
Doubles /BIP8.28%÷0.975×0.810×1.050×1.0337.46%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.920×0.810×1.050×1.0330.00%
Home runs /BIP3.45%÷0.889×0.780—×1.0333.12%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 105, 2B 95, 3B 84, K 98, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .365 → .324; ISO .147 → .129; BABIP .380 → .356. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAASacramento River Cats · 278 PAwOBA .380 → .330 (−50)K% 19.1% → 23.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.06%÷1.034×1.290——23.78%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.51%÷1.052×0.710—×1.0488.14%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.980—×1.0480.00%
Singles /BIP25.00%÷0.960×0.900×1.050×1.04825.79%
Doubles /BIP6.25%÷0.973×0.810×1.050×1.0485.73%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.810×1.050×1.0480.00%
Home runs /BIP6.77%÷1.082×0.780—×1.0485.11%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 92, 2B 95, 3B 80, K 107, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .380 → .330; ISO .208 → .163; BABIP .335 → .332. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).