Nick Martini

RF Las Vegas Aviators
Age 37 L/L 5'11" / 205 lbs AAA HR -5% Svc 9.000 · Ctrl thru 2027
Overview
AAAExt / FA-dealFA 2028
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202333AAACIN417.275/.396/.48115084—.219/.309/.363
202333MLBCIN79.264/.329/.58360143-0.1
202434AAACIN100.305/.424/.64670105—.227/.313/.432
202434MLBCIN163.212/.275/.3705173-0.6
202535AAAOAK360.259/.391/.43410074—.201/.303/.318
202535MLBCOL111.225/.288/.2941059-0.9
202636No MLB games played
2027PROJ10% MLB37MLBOAK20.239/.318/.38200940.0
2028PROJMLE38MLBOAK0.226/.304/.3540083—
Last 3 seasons WAR -1.5  ·  Next 2 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2027Service9.000First FA2028
2027Ext / FA-deal$1M
Skills · percentileStatcast 2023-2025
Speed47
Barrel%39
Bat Spd34
xwOBA32
Avg EV31
CompsAndy Tracy (age 37) · Kevin Barker (age 36) · Jose Luis Sandoval (age 37)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†vL 8094vR 99
AVG/OBP/SLG.239 / .318 / .382
PA20
HR0
K%20
BB%10
BABIP287
ISO56
MLB%10%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -1.5 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-2BATRUN: +0.5 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+1RUNFLD: -0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-0FLDPOS: -2.1 runs (Positional adjustment)-2POSREP: +4.3 runs (Replacement-level credit)+4REPTotal WAR: +0.00+0.0WAR
trajectory · projected WAR by year
0.00.02728
Tools · Splits · ContractCON 40 / POW 45
Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2023-2025
CONTACT40
xAVG
140.222
POWER45
Barrel%
396.8
Avg EV
3187.7
Bat Spd
3469.7
EYE50
scouting grade only
SPEED50
Sprint
4727.4
Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 269 PA
vs LHP
vs RHP
Edge
PA
34
235
—
wRC+
53
76
▶▶R
wOBA
246
281
▶R
ISO
182
115
◀◀L
BABIP
208
266
▶▶R
K%
23.5%
20.4%
▶R
BB%
0.0%
6.8%
—
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   FA
MLB Debut   2018
Service   9.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2027
First FA Year   2028
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Ext / FA-deal$1M———
Totals $1M $0.0M -$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
201222 AQuad Cities River Bandits — 563482 1282442 646010 119 266363344708 79297 1111 323 72 — — — — — —
201323 APeoria Chiefs — 416365 921822 40409 98 252341329669 77277 1010 309 55 — — — — — —
201424 AASpringfield Cardinals — 1716 6100 110 10 375412438849 62400 66 383 116 — — — — — —
201424 A+Palm Beach Cardinals — 496438 1122557 44719 55 256336384720 128289 149 322 70 — — — — — —
201525 AAAMemphis Redbirds — 6756 22421 9101 10 3934855891.074 196467 1513 463 147 — — — — — —
201525 AASpringfield Cardinals — 374313 831525 51485 87 265377374750 109299 1314 341 78 — — — — — —
201626 AAAMemphis Redbirds — 294256 701232 31393 60 273359367726 94311 1311 327 78 — — — — — —
201626 AASpringfield Cardinals — 172145 34503 24272 41 234351331682 97267 1614 316 63 — — — — — —
201727 AAAMemphis Redbirds — 426360 1092056 55774 51 303401436837 133363 1813 371 92 — — — — — —
201727 AASpringfield Cardinals — 11099 26502 11160 10 263336374710 111296 1510 322 54 — — — — — —
201828 MLBOakland Athletics — 179152 45931 21365 00 296399414813 118379 2012 367 132 +7 +0 -1 -5 +4 0.4
201828 AAANashville Sounds — 330276 821226 51681 51 297409420829 123373 2115 374 94 — — — — — —
201929 MLBSan Diego Padres — 10993 21411 14261 00 226333323656 97299 2413 302 93 -1 +0 -1 -5 +2 -0.4
201929 AAALas Vegas Aviators — 329274 901808 49513 00 328436482917 153376 1615 408 98 — — — — — —
202131 MLBChicago Cubs — 4537 10100 6100 01 270372297669 27345 2213 303 80 -1 -0 -1 -4 +1 -0.6
202131 AAAIowa Cubs — 323270 729311 427011 21 267387444831 178323 2213 375 81 — — — — — —
202333 MLBCincinnati Reds — 7972 19316 5152 00 264329583912 319255 196 393 143 +4 +0 -1 -5 +2 -0.1
202333 AAALouisville Bats — 417345 9520315 60879 01 275396481877 206325 2114 388 84 — — — — — —
202434 MLBCincinnati Reds — 163146 31425 9384 13 212275370645 158245 236 283 73 -5 -1 -0 -3 +4 -0.6
202434 AAALouisville Bats — 10082 25707 16221 00 3054246461.071 341333 2216 454 105 — — — — — —
202535 MLBColorado Rockies — 111102 23401 9180 00 225288294582 69265 168 268 59 -5 +0 -0 -5 +2 -0.9
202535 AAALas Vegas Aviators — 360290 7519110 506613 00 259391434825 176294 1814 367 74 — — — — — —
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 686602 14925714 6414312 14 248331382713 135299 219 320 102 +2 -1 -5 -27 +15 -1.7
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
201222 A MLEQuad Cities River Bandits — 563508 1232432 387910 119 242308313621 71275 147 274 72 — — — — — —
201323 A MLEPeoria Chiefs — 416381 831322 24559 98 218280278558 60245 136 249 55 — — — — — —
201424 AA MLESpringfield Cardinals — 1716 6100 110 10 375412438849 62376 66 340 116 — — — — — —
201424 A+ MLEPalm Beach Cardinals — 496448 962447 341019 55 214283333616 118256 207 272 70 — — — — — —
201525 AAA MLEMemphis Redbirds — 6759 21421 6131 10 356424542967 186418 199 386 147 — — — — — —
201525 AA MLESpringfield Cardinals — 374329 781324 35605 87 237320325645 88272 169 284 78 — — — — — —
201626 AAA MLEMemphis Redbirds — 294266 661132 21513 60 248310335645 86285 177 283 78 — — — — — —
201626 AA MLESpringfield Cardinals — 172153 32402 16322 41 209292275567 65249 199 262 63 — — — — — —
201727 AAA MLEMemphis Redbirds — 426377 961645 38984 51 255329358687 103314 239 304 92 — — — — — —
201727 AA MLESpringfield Cardinals — 110103 22401 7200 10 214264282545 68256 186 248 54 — — — — — —
201828 MLB MLEOakland Athletics — 179153 45931 20365 00 294393412805 118379 2011 364 132 +7 +0 -1 -5 +4 0.4
201828 AAA MLENashville Sounds — 330290 721015 37831 51 248335341677 93331 2511 307 94 — — — — — —
201929 MLB MLESan Diego Padres — 10993 21411 14261 00 226333323656 97299 2413 306 93 -1 +0 -1 -5 +2 -0.4
201929 AAA MLELas Vegas Aviators — 329289 731406 34663 00 253337363701 111304 2010 313 98 — — — — — —
202131 MLB MLEChicago Cubs — 4538 10100 5100 01 263349289638 26345 2211 286 80 -1 -0 -1 -4 +1 -0.6
202131 AAA MLEIowa Cubs — 323286 62837 268111 21 217307339646 122277 258 288 81 — — — — — —
202333 MLB MLECincinnati Reds — 7972 19316 5152 00 264329583912 319255 196 380 143 +4 +0 -1 -5 +2 -0.1
202333 AAA MLELouisville Bats — 417366 8017310 391049 01 219309363673 145268 259 293 84 — — — — — —
202434 MLB MLECincinnati Reds — 163147 31425 9384 13 211275367642 156245 236 277 73 -5 -1 -0 -3 +4 -0.6
202434 AAA MLELouisville Bats — 10088 20604 10261 00 227313432745 205263 2610 324 105 — — — — — —
202535 MLB MLEColorado Rockies — 111103 22401 8180 00 214270282552 68265 167 255 59 -5 +0 -0 -5 +2 -0.9
202535 AAA MLELas Vegas Aviators — 360308 621616 327713 00 201303318621 117231 219 278 74 — — — — — —
201222 A MLEQuad Cities River Bandits — 563508 1232432 387910 119 242308313621 71281 147 274 72 — — — — — —
201222 A RAWQuad Cities River Bandits — 563482 1282442 646010 119 266363344708 79297 1111 323 72 — — — — — —
201323 A MLEPeoria Chiefs — 416381 831322 24559 98 218280278558 60248 136 249 55 — — — — — —
201323 A RAWPeoria Chiefs — 416365 921822 40409 98 252341329669 77277 1010 309 55 — — — — — —
201424 A+ MLE2 teams — 513465 1022547 341029 65 219285335621 116265 207 274 72 — — — — — —
201424 A+ RAW2 teams — 513454 1182657 45729 65 260339385724 126294 149 324 72 — — — — — —
201525 AA MLE2 teams — 441388 981744 41736 97 253333348681 95301 179 299 89 — — — — — —
201525 AA RAW2 teams — 441369 1051946 60586 97 285393407800 122324 1314 359 89 — — — — — —
201626 AAA MLE2 teams — 466419 971534 37835 101 232302310612 79276 188 275 72 — — — — — —
201626 AAA RAW2 teams — 466401 1041735 55665 101 259356354710 95296 1412 323 72 — — — — — —
201727 AAA MLE2 teams — 536480 1182046 451184 61 246316342657 96309 228 293 84 — — — — — —
201727 AAA RAW2 teams — 536459 1352558 66934 61 294388423810 129348 1712 361 84 — — — — — —
201828 AAA MLE2 teams — 509443 1181946 571196 51 266358368726 102349 2311 327 107 — — — — — —
201828 AAA RAW2 teams — 509428 1272157 721046 51 297405418823 121375 2014 372 107 — — — — — —
201929 AAA MLE2 teams — 438382 961917 48924 00 251341361702 110310 2111 311 97 — — — — — —
201929 AAA RAW2 teams — 438367 1112219 63774 00 302410441852 139358 1814 381 97 — — — — — —
202131 AAA MLE2 teams — 368324 72937 319111 22 222311333645 111285 258 288 81 — — — — — —
202131 AAA RAW2 teams — 368307 8210311 488011 22 267385427812 160326 2213 366 81 — — — — — —
202333 AAA MLE2 teams — 496438 9820415 4411911 01 224310390701 167270 249 307 94 — — — — — —
202333 AAA RAW2 teams — 496417 11423421 6510211 01 273385499884 225313 2113 389 94 — — — — — —
202434 MLB MLE2 teams — 263235 511029 19645 13 217290391681 174253 247 295 86 -5 -1 -0 -3 +6 -0.3
202434 MLB RAW2 teams — 263228 5611212 25605 13 246332469801 224275 2310 348 86 -5 -1 -0 -3 +6 -0.3
202535 AAA MLE2 teams — 471411 831917 409513 00 202293304597 102241 208 273 71 — — — — — —
202535 AAA RAW2 teams — 471392 9823111 598413 00 250366398764 148286 1813 343 71 — — — — — —
201222 A MLEQuad Cities River Bandits — 563510 1232432 387910 119 241308312619 71275 147 274 72 — — — — — —
201323 A MLEPeoria Chiefs — 416380 831322 24559 98 218280279559 61245 136 249 55 — — — — — —
201424 A+ MLE2 teams — 513465 1022547 341029 65 219285335621 116260 207 274 72 — — — — — —
201525 AA MLE2 teams — 441391 981744 41736 97 251333345679 95294 179 299 89 — — — — — —
201626 AAA MLE2 teams — 466421 971534 37835 101 230302309610 78272 188 275 72 — — — — — —
201727 AAA MLE2 teams — 536482 1182046 451184 61 245316340656 95302 228 293 84 — — — — — —
201828 AAA MLE2 teams — 509441 1181946 571196 51 268358370727 102348 2311 327 107 — — — — — —
201929 AAA MLE2 teams — 438383 961917 48924 00 251341360701 110303 2111 311 97 — — — — — —
202131 AAA MLE2 teams — 368323 72937 319111 22 223311334646 111285 258 288 81 — — — — — —
202333 AAA MLE2 teams — 496438 9820415 4411911 01 224310390701 167266 249 307 94 — — — — — —
202434 MLB MLE2 teams — 263237 511029 19645 13 215290388678 173252 247 295 86 — — — — — —
202535 AAA MLE2 teams — 471415 831917 409513 00 200293301594 101239 208 273 71 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202434 MLB MLE2 teams — 263237 511029 19645 13 215290388678 173252 247 295 86 — — — — — —
202535 AAA MLE2 teams — 471415 831917 409513 00 200293301594 101239 208 273 71 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202737 MLB MLEOAK 10% 310275 631317 26676 31 232311371682 139277 228 306 94 -2 +0 -0 -3 +7 0.0
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202737 MLB CTXOAK 10% 2018 4100 240 00 239318382699 143287 2010 313 94 -0 +0 -0 -0 +0 0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202838 MLB MLEOAK 0% 134119 27513 11303 00 220298344642 124266 228 290 83 -3 +0 -8 -1 +3 -0.9
202838 MLB CTXOAK 0% 00 0000 000 00 226304354658 128275 —— 297 83 — — -0 -0 — —
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 686602 14925714 6414312 14 248331382713 135299 219 320 82 +2 -1 -5 -27 +15 -1.7
/ 162G— A+C — 650570 14224713 6113511 14 249333384717 135301 219 320 82 +2 -1 -5 -26 +14 -1.6
Career— MLE — 58145170 12082243784 4861163100 6138 234312340652 106283 208 289 82 -2 -1 -13 -31 +22 -2.5
/ 162G— MLE — 650578 1342549 5413011 74 232309336645 104282 208 289 82 -1 -1 -8 -20 +14 -1.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 360 PAwOBA .363 → .278 (−85)K% 18.3% → 21.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.33%÷1.027×1.200——21.43%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.33%÷0.970×0.690—×0.9408.91%
HBP% /PA3.61%—×0.940—×0.9403.19%
Singles /BIP20.09%÷1.052×0.930×0.974×0.94016.25%
Doubles /BIP8.48%÷0.988×0.830×0.974×0.9406.52%
Triples /BIP0.45%÷1.000×0.970×0.974×0.9400.40%
Home runs /BIP4.46%÷1.183×0.700—×0.9402.48%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 137, 1B 110, 2B 98, 3B 100, K 105, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 35 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.974.

Result: wOBA .363 → .278; ISO .176 → .122; BABIP .294 → .231. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAALouisville Bats · 100 PAwOBA .446 → .324 (−122)K% 22.0% → 26.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.00%÷0.999×1.200——26.44%
BB% (unintentional) /PA16.00%÷1.032×0.690—×0.94010.05%
HBP% /PA1.00%—×0.940—×0.9400.88%
Singles /BIP18.33%÷0.995×0.930×0.975×0.94015.71%
Doubles /BIP11.67%÷0.964×0.830×0.975×0.9409.20%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.970×0.975×0.9400.00%
Home runs /BIP11.67%÷1.111×0.700—×0.9406.91%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 122, 1B 99, 2B 93, 3B 130, K 100, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 34 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.975.

Result: wOBA .446 → .324; ISO .341 → .229; BABIP .333 → .263. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAALouisville Bats · 417 PAwOBA .381 → .293 (−88)K% 20.9% → 24.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.86%÷1.004×1.200——24.93%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.39%÷0.993×0.690—×0.9429.42%
HBP% /PA2.16%—×0.940—×0.9421.91%
Singles /BIP22.09%÷0.998×0.930×0.973×0.94218.86%
Doubles /BIP7.75%÷0.938×0.830×0.973×0.9426.28%
Triples /BIP1.16%÷1.042×0.970×0.973×0.9420.99%
Home runs /BIP5.81%÷1.054×0.700—×0.9423.64%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 100, 2B 88, 3B 108, K 101, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 27.2 → −5.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.973.

Result: wOBA .381 → .293; ISO .206 → .148; BABIP .325 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAIowa Cubs · 323 PAwOBA .364 → .288 (−76)K% 21.7% → 25.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.67%÷1.032×1.200——25.20%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.69%÷1.023×0.690—×0.9628.24%
HBP% /PA3.41%—×0.940—×0.9623.08%
Singles /BIP24.50%÷1.039×0.930×1.023×0.96221.58%
Doubles /BIP4.50%÷0.963×0.830×1.023×0.9623.82%
Triples /BIP1.50%÷0.988×0.920×1.023×0.9621.37%
Home runs /BIP5.50%÷1.081×0.700—×0.9623.43%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 108, 2B 93, 3B 98, K 106, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.023.

Result: wOBA .364 → .288; ISO .178 → .128; BABIP .323 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 329 PAwOBA .400 → .313 (−87)K% 15.5% → 20.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA15.50%÷0.990×1.290——20.19%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.59%÷0.985×0.710—×0.98210.33%
HBP% /PA0.91%—×0.980—×0.9820.88%
Singles /BIP28.70%÷1.018×0.900×0.950×0.98223.67%
Doubles /BIP8.07%÷0.951×0.810×0.950×0.9826.41%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.102×0.810×0.950×0.9820.00%
Home runs /BIP3.59%÷1.119×0.780—×0.9822.45%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 104, 2B 90, 3B 120, K 98, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .400 → .313; ISO .153 → .113; BABIP .376 → .304. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAANashville Sounds · 330 PAwOBA .368 → .307 (−61)K% 20.6% → 25.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.61%÷1.055×1.290——25.19%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.45%÷0.966×0.710—×0.99211.27%
HBP% /PA0.30%—×0.980—×0.9920.29%
Singles /BIP29.81%÷0.986×0.900×1.003×0.99227.07%
Doubles /BIP5.77%÷0.937×0.810×1.003×0.9924.96%
Triples /BIP0.96%÷1.150×0.810×1.003×0.9920.67%
Home runs /BIP2.88%÷0.988×0.780—×0.9922.26%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 97, 2B 87, 3B 130, K 111, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.003.

Result: wOBA .368 → .307; ISO .123 → .099; BABIP .373 → .331. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 426 PAwOBA .367 → .304 (−63)K% 18.1% → 23.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.08%÷1.010×1.290——23.09%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.44%÷0.997×0.710—×1.0038.89%
HBP% /PA0.94%—×0.980—×1.0030.92%
Singles /BIP27.56%÷1.001×0.900×0.998×1.00324.80%
Doubles /BIP7.07%÷1.021×0.810×0.998×1.0035.61%
Triples /BIP1.77%÷1.135×0.810×0.998×1.0031.26%
Home runs /BIP2.12%÷0.980×0.780—×1.0031.69%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 100, 2B 104, 3B 127, K 102, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.998.

Result: wOBA .367 → .304; ISO .133 → .105; BABIP .363 → .314. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AASpringfield Cardinals · 110 PAwOBA .314 → .248 (−66)K% 14.5% → 17.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA14.55%÷0.990×1.220——17.92%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.00%÷1.048×0.700—×0.9786.53%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.870—×0.9780.00%
Singles /BIP22.89%÷0.992×0.920×0.982×0.97820.40%
Doubles /BIP6.02%÷1.009×0.840×0.982×0.9784.82%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.093×0.940×0.982×0.9780.00%
Home runs /BIP2.41%÷1.315×0.800—×0.9781.43%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 163, 1B 98, 2B 102, 3B 119, K 98, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.

Result: wOBA .314 → .248; ISO .111 → .077; BABIP .296 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).