Travis Snider

PosLF

B/TL/L

Born1988-02-02

Age (2027)39

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

AAALAST SEASON 2021

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2017	29	AAALas Vegas 51s	485	.296/.378/.432	10	2	72	—	.233/.290/.323
2019	31	AAAARI	368	.294/.403/.497	11	3	74	—	.204/.289/.332
2021	33	AAAATL	167	.174/.309/.304	4	3	20	—	.128/.218/.216

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2015

Avg EV39

xwOBA33

Speed32

Barrel%13

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2006	18	ROK	Pulaski Blue Jays	—	226	194	63	12	1	11	30	47	0	6	3	325	415	567	982	242	377	21	13	425	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	19	A	Lansing Lugnuts	—	517	457	143	35	7	16	49	129	3	3	10	313	383	525	908	212	397	25	9	392	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	20	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	80	73	22	6	0	2	5	23	0	0	0	301	346	466	812	164	400	29	6	350	123	+2	+0	-0	-7	+2	-0.3
2008	20	AAA	Syracuse Chiefs	—	70	64	22	5	0	2	4	16	1	1	0	344	391	516	907	172	426	23	6	395	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	20	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	423	362	96	22	0	17	52	115	4	1	1	265	364	467	830	202	336	27	12	365	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	20	A+	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	66	61	17	5	0	4	5	22	0	1	0	279	333	557	891	279	371	33	8	386	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	21	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	276	241	58	14	1	9	29	78	3	1	1	241	330	419	749	178	316	28	11	332	109	+3	-0	-9	-5	+6	-0.5
2009	21	AAA	Las Vegas 51s	—	204	175	59	13	1	14	28	47	1	2	3	337	431	663	1.094	326	395	23	14	469	143	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	22	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	319	298	76	20	0	14	21	79	0	6	3	255	304	463	767	208	302	25	7	337	111	+4	+0	+1	-4	+7	0.8
2010	22	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	85	81	24	5	0	5	2	21	0	3	1	296	313	543	856	247	333	25	2	363	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	22	ROK	GCL Blue Jays	—	15	14	4	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	286	286	286	571		286	7	0	241	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	23	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	202	187	42	14	0	3	11	56	1	9	3	225	271	348	619	123	300	28	5	274	69	-8	+1	+2	-5	+4	-0.6
2011	23	AAA	Las Vegas 51s	—	277	248	81	22	2	4	25	44	3	12	1	327	395	480	875	153	383	16	9	388	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	24	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	185	164	41	7	1	4	17	48	1	2	0	250	324	378	702	128	322	26	9	312	99	-0	+0	-2	-5	+4	-0.3
2012	24	AAA	Las Vegas 51s	—	246	209	70	16	0	13	34	42	0	2	4	335	428	598	1.026	263	363	17	14	441	135	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	24	A+	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	23	22	5	1	0	0	1	5	0	2	0	227	261	273	534	45	294	22	4	244	10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	25	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	285	261	56	12	2	5	24	75	0	2	3	215	281	333	614	119	282	26	8	278	70	-10	-1	-2	-3	+6	-1.1
2013	25	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	—	38	32	11	1	0	0	5	8	0	1	1	344	432	375	807	31	440	21	13	364	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	26	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	359	322	85	15	1	13	34	67	2	1	1	264	338	438	776	174	298	19	9	345	120	+9	-0	-5	-4	+8	0.7
2015	27	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	265	237	55	12	2	4	26	66	2	1	0	232	313	350	663	118	305	25	10	302	88	-4	+0	-1	-3	+6	-0.2
2015	27	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	—	40	35	11	1	0	1	4	3	0	0	0	314	385	429	813	114	312	8	10	358	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	28	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	322	277	68	16	2	3	39	63	2	0	1	245	343	350	693	105	304	20	12	314	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	29	AAA	Las Vegas 51s	—	485	426	126	26	1	10	56	106	0	2	3	296	378	432	810	136	371	22	12	362	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	31	AAA	Reno Aces	—	368	310	91	22	4	11	56	84	1	3	2	294	403	497	900	203	370	23	15	397	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	33	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	167	138	24	6	0	4	26	63	1	3	0	174	309	304	613	130	274	38	16	285	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1971	1783	435	100	7	54	167	492	9	22	11	244	312	399	711	155	306	25	8	316	100	+0	+0	-17	-37	+43	-1.2
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2006	18	ROK MLE	Pulaski Blue Jays	—	226	207	52	9	1	9	17	67	0	6	3	251	308	435	743	184	313	30	8	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	19	A MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	—	517	474	125	29	6	13	32	175	3	3	10	264	314	432	747	169	368	34	6	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	20	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	80	73	22	6	0	2	5	23	0	0	0	301	346	466	812	164	400	29	6	350	123	+2	+0	-0	-7	+2	-0.3
2008	20	AAA MLE	Syracuse Chiefs	—	70	65	20	4	0	2	3	19	1	1	0	308	348	462	809	154	402	27	4	349	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	20	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	423	376	90	19	0	14	38	140	4	1	1	239	316	402	717	162	327	33	9	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	20	A+ MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	66	62	13	4	0	3	4	31	0	1	0	210	258	419	677	210	359	47	6	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	21	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	276	242	58	14	1	9	28	78	3	1	1	240	326	417	743	178	316	28	10	329	109	+3	-0	-9	-5	+6	-0.5
2009	21	AAA MLE	Las Vegas 51s	—	204	182	52	11	1	11	21	61	1	2	3	286	363	538	901	253	368	30	10	379	143	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	22	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	319	300	76	20	0	14	19	79	0	6	3	253	298	460	758	207	302	25	6	332	111	+4	+0	+1	-4	+7	0.8
2010	22	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	85	82	22	5	0	4	1	26	0	3	1	268	277	476	753	207	313	31	1	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	22	ROK MLE	GCL Blue Jays	—	15	14	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	214	214	214	429		229	7	0	210	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	23	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	202	188	42	14	0	3	10	56	1	9	3	223	266	346	612	122	300	28	5	270	69	-8	+1	+2	-5	+4	-0.6
2011	23	AAA MLE	Las Vegas 51s	—	277	256	73	17	2	3	17	57	3	12	1	285	337	402	739	117	355	21	6	324	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	24	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	185	164	41	7	1	4	17	48	1	2	0	250	324	378	702	128	322	26	9	315	99	-0	+0	-2	-5	+4	-0.3
2012	24	AAA MLE	Las Vegas 51s	—	246	219	63	13	0	10	24	54	0	2	4	288	358	484	842	196	331	22	10	367	135	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	24	A+ MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	23	22	4	1	0	0	1	7	0	2	0	182	217	227	445	45	257	30	4	183	10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	25	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	285	264	55	11	2	5	21	75	0	2	3	208	267	322	589	114	282	26	7	272	70	-10	-1	-2	-3	+6	-1.1
2013	25	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	—	38	33	11	1	0	0	4	11	0	1	1	333	405	364	769	30	429	29	11	329	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	26	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	359	324	85	14	1	14	32	67	2	1	1	262	332	441	774	179	298	19	9	346	120	+9	-0	-5	-4	+8	0.7
2015	27	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	265	239	54	11	2	4	24	66	2	1	0	226	302	339	641	113	305	25	9	298	88	-4	+0	-1	-3	+6	-0.2
2015	27	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	—	40	36	10	1	0	1	3	4	0	0	0	278	333	389	722	111	276	10	8	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	28	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	322	289	63	14	2	2	27	78	2	0	1	218	289	301	590	83	279	24	8	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	29	AAA MLE	Las Vegas 51s	—	485	446	104	20	1	6	36	144	0	2	3	233	290	323	613	90	326	30	7	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	31	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	368	328	67	15	3	7	38	112	1	3	2	204	289	332	621	128	284	30	10	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	33	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	167	148	19	4	0	3	16	77	1	3	0	128	218	216	434	88	223	46	10	198	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	18	ROK MLE	Pulaski Blue Jays	—	226	207	52	9	1	9	17	67	0	6	3	251	308	435	743	184	323	30	8	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	18	ROK RAW	Pulaski Blue Jays	—	226	194	63	12	1	11	30	47	0	6	3	325	415	567	982	242	377	21	13	425	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	19	A MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	—	517	474	125	29	6	13	32	175	3	3	10	264	314	432	747	169	381	34	6	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	19	A RAW	Lansing Lugnuts	—	517	457	143	35	7	16	49	129	3	3	10	313	383	525	908	212	397	25	9	392	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	20	AA MLE	4 teams	—	639	576	145	34	0	20	50	214	5	3	1	252	317	415	732	163	357	33	8	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	20	AA RAW	4 teams	—	639	560	157	38	0	25	66	176	5	3	1	280	361	482	843	202	360	28	10	369	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	21	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	480	424	110	25	2	20	49	139	4	3	4	259	342	469	811	210	338	29	10	350	123	+13	-1	-9	-5	+10	0.9
2009	21	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	480	416	117	27	2	23	57	125	4	3	4	281	373	522	895	240	349	26	12	390	123	+13	-1	-9	-5	+10	0.9
2010	22	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	419	396	101	25	0	18	20	106	0	10	5	255	291	455	745	199	302	25	5	324	106	+3	+0	+1	-4	+9	0.8
2010	22	MLB RAW	3 teams	—	419	393	104	25	0	19	23	101	0	10	5	265	305	473	779	209	308	24	5	339	106	+3	+0	+1	-4	+9	0.8
2011	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	479	444	115	31	2	6	27	113	4	21	4	259	307	378	686	119	332	24	6	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	23	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	479	435	123	36	2	7	36	100	4	21	4	283	343	423	766	140	350	21	8	340	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	24	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	454	405	108	20	1	14	42	109	1	6	4	267	337	425	762	158	326	24	9	336	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	24	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	454	395	116	24	1	17	52	95	1	6	4	294	377	489	866	195	343	21	11	378	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	323	297	66	12	2	5	25	86	0	3	4	222	283	327	609	104	295	27	8	279	75	-10	-1	-2	-3	+7	-1.0
2013	25	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	323	293	67	13	2	5	29	83	0	3	4	229	298	338	636	109	301	26	9	288	75	-10	-1	-2	-3	+7	-1.0
2014	26	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	359	324	85	14	1	14	32	67	2	1	1	262	332	441	774	179	292	19	9	346	120	+9	-0	-5	-4	+8	0.7
2014	26	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	359	322	85	15	1	13	34	67	2	1	1	264	338	438	776	174	298	19	9	345	120	+9	-0	-5	-4	+8	0.7
2015	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	305	275	65	12	2	5	27	70	2	1	0	236	309	349	658	113	299	23	9	300	89	-4	+0	-1	-3	+7	-0.1
2015	27	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	305	272	66	13	2	5	30	69	2	1	0	243	322	360	683	118	307	23	10	309	89	-4	+0	-1	-3	+7	-0.1
2016	28	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	322	289	63	14	2	2	27	78	2	0	1	218	289	301	590	83	288	24	8	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	28	AAA RAW	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	322	277	68	16	2	3	39	63	2	0	1	245	343	350	693	105	304	20	12	314	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	29	AAA MLE	Las Vegas 51s	—	485	446	104	20	1	6	36	144	0	2	3	233	290	323	613	90	328	30	7	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	29	AAA RAW	Las Vegas 51s	—	485	426	126	26	1	10	56	106	0	2	3	296	378	432	810	136	371	22	12	362	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	31	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	368	328	67	15	3	7	38	112	1	3	2	204	289	332	621	128	286	30	10	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	31	AAA RAW	Reno Aces	—	368	310	91	22	4	11	56	84	1	3	2	294	403	497	900	203	370	23	15	397	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	33	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	167	148	19	4	0	3	16	77	1	3	0	128	218	216	434	88	229	46	10	198	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	33	AAA RAW	Gwinnett Stripers	—	167	138	24	6	0	4	26	63	1	3	0	174	309	304	613	130	274	38	16	285	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	18	ROK MLE	Pulaski Blue Jays	—	226	207	52	9	1	9	17	67	0	6	3	251	308	435	743	184	313	30	8	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	19	A MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	—	517	477	125	29	6	13	32	175	3	3	10	262	314	430	744	168	368	34	6	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	20	AA MLE	4 teams	—	639	579	145	34	0	20	50	214	5	3	1	250	317	413	730	162	348	33	8	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	21	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	480	424	110	25	2	20	49	139	4	3	4	259	342	469	811	210	338	29	10	350	123	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	22	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	419	396	101	25	0	18	20	106	0	10	5	255	291	455	745	199	302	25	5	324	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	479	445	115	31	2	6	27	113	4	21	4	258	307	378	685	119	332	24	6	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	24	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	454	408	108	20	1	14	42	109	1	6	4	265	337	422	759	157	323	24	9	336	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	323	295	66	12	2	5	25	86	0	3	4	224	283	329	611	105	299	27	8	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	26	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	359	322	85	14	1	14	32	67	2	1	1	264	332	444	777	180	298	19	9	346	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	305	273	65	12	2	5	27	70	2	1	0	238	309	352	661	114	302	23	9	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	28	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	322	290	63	14	2	2	27	78	2	0	1	217	289	300	589	83	279	24	8	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	29	AAA MLE	Las Vegas 51s	—	485	446	104	20	1	6	36	144	0	2	3	233	290	323	613	90	326	30	7	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	31	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	368	326	67	15	3	7	38	112	1	3	2	206	289	334	623	129	284	30	10	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	33	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	167	148	19	4	0	3	16	77	1	3	0	128	218	216	434	88	223	46	10	198	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1971	1783	435	100	7	54	167	492	9	22	11	244	312	399	711	155	306	25	8	316	94	+0	+0	-17	-37	+43	-1.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	588	143	33	2	18	55	162	3	7	4	243	311	398	709	155	304	25	8	316	94	+0	+0	-6	-12	+14	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		—	5543	5033	1225	264	23	142	438	1557	25	65	42	243	307	390	697	146	321	28	8	307	94	+0	+0	-17	-37	+43	-1.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	590	144	31	3	17	51	183	3	8	5	244	307	393	701	149	322	28	8	307	94	+0	+0	-6	-12	+14	-0.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2021 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 167 PAwOBA .279 → .198 (−81)K% 37.7% → 46.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	37.72%	÷0.975	×1.200	—	—	46.41%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.97%	÷1.014	×0.690	—	×0.942	9.60%
HBP% /PA	0.60%	—	×0.940	—	×0.942	0.53%
Singles /BIP	18.67%	÷1.011	×0.930	×0.995	×0.942	16.09%
Doubles /BIP	8.00%	÷1.039	×0.830	×0.995	×0.942	5.99%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.920	×0.995	×0.942	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.33%	÷1.001	×0.700	—	×0.942	3.51%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 102, 2B 108, 3B 130, K 95, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 27.2 → −5.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.

Result: wOBA .279 → .198; ISO .130 → .087; BABIP .274 → .223. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAReno Aces · 368 PAwOBA .388 → .278 (−110)K% 22.8% → 30.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.83%	÷0.970	×1.290	—	—	30.37%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.95%	÷0.986	×0.710	—	×0.962	10.36%
HBP% /PA	0.27%	—	×0.980	—	×0.962	0.26%
Singles /BIP	23.89%	÷1.035	×0.900	×0.963	×0.962	19.24%
Doubles /BIP	9.73%	÷1.025	×0.810	×0.963	×0.962	7.13%
Triples /BIP	1.77%	÷1.150	×0.810	×0.963	×0.962	1.16%
Home runs /BIP	4.87%	÷1.077	×0.780	—	×0.962	3.39%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 107, 2B 105, 3B 130, K 94, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.963.

Result: wOBA .388 → .278; ISO .203 → .137; BABIP .370 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAALas Vegas 51s · 485 PAwOBA .352 → .275 (−77)K% 21.9% → 29.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.86%	÷0.948	×1.290	—	—	29.74%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.72%	÷1.015	×0.710	—	×0.982	7.36%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×0.982	0.00%
Singles /BIP	27.81%	÷0.994	×0.900	×1.027	×0.982	25.40%
Doubles /BIP	8.12%	÷0.998	×0.810	×1.027	×0.982	6.65%
Triples /BIP	0.31%	÷1.111	×0.810	×1.027	×0.982	0.23%
Home runs /BIP	3.12%	÷1.209	×0.780	—	×0.982	1.98%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 142, 1B 99, 2B 100, 3B 122, K 90, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.027.

Result: wOBA .352 → .275; ISO .136 → .093; BABIP .371 → .326. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 322 PAwOBA .308 → .263 (−46)K% 19.6% → 24.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.57%	÷1.040	×1.290	—	—	24.27%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.80%	÷1.006	×0.710	—	×0.992	8.26%
HBP% /PA	0.62%	—	×0.980	—	×0.992	0.60%
Singles /BIP	21.96%	÷0.968	×0.900	×1.023	×0.992	20.71%
Doubles /BIP	7.48%	÷0.929	×0.810	×1.023	×0.992	6.61%
Triples /BIP	0.93%	÷1.068	×0.810	×1.023	×0.992	0.72%
Home runs /BIP	1.40%	÷1.054	×0.780	—	×0.992	1.03%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 94, 2B 86, 3B 114, K 108, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.023.

Result: wOBA .308 → .263; ISO .105 → .087; BABIP .304 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 40 PAwOBA .357 → .317 (−40)K% 7.5% → 9.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	7.50%	÷0.977	×1.200	—	—	9.21%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.00%	÷1.077	×0.690	—	×1.003	6.43%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	0.00%
Singles /BIP	28.12%	÷1.044	×0.930	—	×1.003	25.13%
Doubles /BIP	3.12%	÷1.050	×0.830	—	×1.003	2.48%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.041	×0.970	—	×1.003	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.12%	÷0.847	×0.840	—	×1.003	3.11%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 109, 2B 110, 3B 108, K 95, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .357 → .317; ISO .114 → .114; BABIP .312 → .276. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 38 PAwOBA .365 → .329 (−36)K% 21.1% → 27.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.05%	÷0.909	×1.200	—	—	27.79%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.16%	÷1.012	×0.690	—	×1.033	9.27%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	0.00%
Singles /BIP	41.67%	÷0.978	×0.930	—	×1.033	40.91%
Doubles /BIP	4.17%	÷0.954	×0.830	—	×1.033	3.74%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.080	×0.970	—	×1.033	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.901	×0.840	—	×1.033	0.00%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 96, 2B 91, 3B 116, K 82, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .365 → .329; ISO .031 → .028; BABIP .440 → .429. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2012 AAALas Vegas 51s · 246 PAwOBA .432 → .367 (−65)K% 17.1% → 21.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.07%	÷1.004	×1.290	—	—	21.93%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.01%	÷0.985	×0.710	—	×1.048	9.83%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×1.048	0.00%
Singles /BIP	24.55%	÷0.985	×0.900	×1.021	×1.048	24.00%
Doubles /BIP	9.58%	÷1.085	×0.810	×1.021	×1.048	7.66%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.994	×0.810	×1.021	×1.048	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	7.78%	÷1.059	×0.780	—	×1.048	6.01%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 97, 2B 117, 3B 99, K 101, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.021.

Result: wOBA .432 → .367; ISO .263 → .206; BABIP .363 → .331. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2012 A+Dunedin Blue Jays · 23 PAwOBA .237 → .183 (−54)K% 21.7% → 30.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.74%	÷1.001	×1.420	—	—	30.83%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.35%	÷1.020	×0.750	—	×0.988	3.16%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.930	—	×0.988	0.00%
Singles /BIP	23.53%	÷1.034	×0.920	—	×0.988	20.68%
Doubles /BIP	5.88%	÷1.111	×0.960	—	×0.988	5.02%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.014	×0.810	—	×0.988	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.944	×0.880	—	×0.988	0.00%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 107, 2B 122, 3B 103, K 100, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .237 → .183; ISO .045 → .035; BABIP .294 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).