Jake Cave

RF Charlotte Knights
Age 34 L/L 6'0" / 200 lbs AAA HR +4% Svc 9.000 · Ctrl thru 2027
Overview
AAAExt / FA-dealFA 2028
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202330AAAPHI275.346/.432/.684162124—.267/.337/.498
202330MLBPHI203.212/.275/.3485371-0.7
202431MLBCOL346.251/.292/.3967577-0.9
202633AAACWS178.229/.316/.4016850—.183/.243/.299
2027PROJ10% MLB34MLBCWS16.237/.290/.3720084-0.0
2028PROJ35MLBCWS123.226/.278/.3483274-0.8
Last 3 seasons WAR -1.6  ·  Next 2 projected WAR -0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2027Service9.000First FA2028
2027Ext / FA-deal$1M
Skills · percentileStatcast 2022-2024
Speed55
Avg EV45
Barrel%42
Bat Spd33
xwOBA29
CompsCharlie Culberson (age 34) · Ryan LaMarre (age 34) · Eddy Alvarez (age 34)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†vL 4384vR 99
AVG/OBP/SLG.237 / .290 / .372
PA16
HR0
K%25
BB%6
BABIP306
ISO67
MLB%10%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -3.0 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-3BATRUN: +0.6 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+1RUNFLD: +0.3 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: -1.7 runs (Positional adjustment)-2POSREP: +3.4 runs (Replacement-level credit)+3REPTotal WAR: +0.10+0.1WAR
trajectory · projected WAR by year
0.1-0.82728
Tools · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 40
Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2022-2024
CONTACT45
xAVG
120.220
POWER40
Barrel%
427.1
Avg EV
4588.8
Bat Spd
3369.5
EYE40
scouting grade only
SPEED55
Sprint
5527.7
Platoon Splits2024 · 346 PA
vs LHP
vs RHP
Edge
PA
42
304
—
wRC+
-55
108
▶▶R
wOBA
087
327
▶▶R
ISO
—
167
—
BABIP
174
354
▶▶R
K%
42.9%
26.3%
▶▶R
BB%
0.0%
5.6%
—
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   FA
MLB Debut   2018
Service   9.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2027
First FA Year   2028
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Ext / FA-deal$1M+0.0$0.0M-$1.0M
Totals $1M $0.0M -$1.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
201320 ACharleston RiverDogs — 520464 1313762 401108 189 282350401750 119362 218 333 80 — — — — — —
201421 AATrenton Thunder — 197176 481054 18441 23 273344455798 182344 229 349 99 — — — — — —
201421 A+Tampa Yankees — 416385 1171843 28802 103 304354395749 91377 197 337 76 — — — — — —
201522 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders — 2924 11310 381 00 4585366671.202 208647 2810 504 206 — — — — — —
201522 AATrenton Thunder — 563505 1362252 43985 173 269333345677 75327 178 304 78 — — — — — —
201623 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders — 354322 841865 26784 33 261324401724 140329 227 322 79 — — — — — —
201623 AATrenton Thunder — 116104 30833 10281 34 288357510866 221365 249 375 107 — — — — — —
201724 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders — 297278 9013315 18821 13 324367554921 230414 286 402 99 — — — — — —
201724 AATrenton Thunder — 140128 341325 10330 10 266319516834 250319 247 357 95 — — — — — —
201825 MLBMinnesota Twins — 309283 7516213 181023 21 265316473789 208363 336 341 114 +5 +0 -1 +2 +7 1.3
201825 AAARochester Red Wings — 250216 58916 26554 42 269358403761 134327 2210 339 86 — — — — — —
201926 MLBMinnesota Twins — 228198 511128 21718 00 258352455807 197358 319 358 128 +8 +0 +0 -5 +5 0.8
201926 AAARochester Red Wings — 214196 691847 15500 50 352398592990 240437 237 424 120 — — — — — —
202027 MLBMinnesota Twins — 123113 25324 5445 02 221285389674 168323 364 301 90 -1 -1 +2 +0 +3 0.3
202128 MLBMinnesota Twins — 178164 31613 10623 11 189249293541 104283 356 246 52 -10 -0 -0 -2 +4 -0.9
202128 AAASt. Paul Saints — 3630 11101 5101 01 367472500972 133526 2814 437 112 — — — — — —
202229 MLBMinnesota Twins — 177164 35735 11490 20 213263384647 171268 286 283 77 -5 +0 -0 -6 +4 -0.7
202229 AAASt. Paul Saints — 373322 8820714 43937 100 273371509880 236343 2512 386 91 — — — — — —
202330 MLBPhiladelphia Phillies — 203184 39815 15551 30 212275348623 136270 277 276 71 -7 +1 +0 -5 +4 -0.7
202330 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs — 275237 8230116 31565 23 3464326841.116 338395 2011 474 124 — — — — — —
202431 MLBColorado Rockies — 346323 811657 18981 52 251292396689 146335 285 302 77 -9 +0 -4 -4 +7 -0.9
202633 AAACharlotte Knights — 178157 36906 20440 81 229316401718 172278 2511 320 50 — — — — — —
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 15641429 337671645 9848121 136 236295400694 164319 316 306 93 -13 +0 -2 -19 +34 -0.0
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
201320 A MLECharleston RiverDogs — 520476 1233362 281458 189 258311366676 107349 285 287 80 — — — — — —
201421 AA MLETrenton Thunder — 197181 46943 13541 23 254308398705 144350 277 315 99 — — — — — —
201421 A+ MLETampa Yankees — 416391 1011633 221192 103 258301338639 79366 295 281 76 — — — — — —
201522 AAA MLEScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders — 2925 11310 2101 00 4405006401.140 200621 347 473 206 — — — — — —
201522 AA MLETrenton Thunder — 563519 1402141 291265 173 270315331646 62341 225 284 78 — — — — — —
201623 AAA MLEScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders — 354330 801574 18944 33 242290367656 124321 275 285 79 — — — — — —
201623 AA MLETrenton Thunder — 116107 28732 7341 34 262313439752 178360 296 326 107 — — — — — —
201724 AAA MLEScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders — 297285 7711210 11991 13 270300428728 158384 334 315 99 — — — — — —
201724 AA MLETrenton Thunder — 140131 321224 7400 10 244283458741 214307 295 308 95 — — — — — —
201825 MLB MLEMinnesota Twins — 309285 7516213 161023 21 263309470779 207363 335 336 114 +5 +0 -1 +2 +7 1.3
201825 AAA MLERochester Red Wings — 250224 55816 18684 42 246313371684 125303 277 296 86 — — — — — —
201926 MLB MLEMinnesota Twins — 228198 511128 21718 00 258352455807 197358 319 358 128 +8 +0 +0 -5 +5 0.8
201926 AAA MLERochester Red Wings — 214202 601436 9600 50 297327485812 188378 284 346 120 — — — — — —
202027 MLB MLEMinnesota Twins — 123113 25324 5445 02 221285389674 168323 364 301 90 -1 -1 +2 +0 +3 0.3
202128 MLB MLEMinnesota Twins — 178164 31613 10623 11 189249293541 104283 356 246 52 -10 -0 -0 -2 +4 -0.9
202128 AAA MLESt. Paul Saints — 3632 10101 3121 01 312389438826 125452 338 333 112 — — — — — —
202229 MLB MLEMinnesota Twins — 177164 35735 11490 20 213263384647 171268 286 282 77 -5 +0 -0 -6 +4 -0.7
202229 AAA MLESt. Paul Saints — 373339 7716611 261147 100 227296407703 180303 317 303 91 — — — — — —
202330 MLB MLEPhiladelphia Phillies — 203184 39815 15551 30 212275348623 136270 277 274 71 -7 +1 +0 -5 +4 -0.7
202330 AAA MLELehigh Valley IronPigs — 275247 6622111 21675 23 267337498835 231316 248 351 124 — — — — — —
202431 MLB MLEColorado Rockies — 346324 751536 17981 52 231272352624 120335 285 282 77 -9 +0 -4 -4 +7 -0.9
202633 AAA MLECharlotte Knights — 178164 30704 13530 81 183243299542 116242 307 242 50 — — — — — —
201320 A MLECharleston RiverDogs — 520476 1233362 281458 189 258311366676 107363 285 287 80 — — — — — —
201320 A RAWCharleston RiverDogs — 520464 1313762 401108 189 282350401750 119362 218 333 80 — — — — — —
201421 A+ MLE2 teams — 613572 1492686 351733 126 260307365672 105364 286 292 84 — — — — — —
201421 A+ RAW2 teams — 613561 1652897 461243 126 294351414764 119367 208 341 84 — — — — — —
201522 AA MLE2 teams — 592544 1512451 311356 173 278324346669 68362 235 293 85 — — — — — —
201522 AA RAW2 teams — 592529 1472562 461066 173 278343359702 81340 188 314 85 — — — — — —
201623 AAA MLE2 teams — 470438 10922107 241285 67 249296393688 144334 275 295 86 — — — — — —
201623 AAA RAW2 teams — 470426 1142698 361065 67 268332427759 160338 238 335 86 — — — — — —
201724 AAA MLE2 teams — 437416 10923414 181391 23 262294438732 175360 324 313 98 — — — — — —
201724 AAA RAW2 teams — 437406 12426520 281151 23 305352542894 236382 266 388 98 — — — — — —
201825 MLB MLE2 teams — 559509 13024319 341707 63 255311426737 171339 306 318 101 +1 +0 -1 +2 +12 1.4
201825 MLB RAW2 teams — 559499 13325319 441577 63 267335443777 176345 288 340 101 +1 +0 -1 +2 +12 1.4
201926 MLB MLE2 teams — 442400 11125514 301318 50 278340470810 192375 307 352 124 +13 +1 +0 -5 +10 1.9
201926 MLB RAW2 teams — 442394 12029615 361218 50 305374523897 218401 278 390 124 +13 +1 +0 -5 +10 1.9
202027 MLB MLEMinnesota Twins — 123113 25324 5445 02 221285389674 168323 364 301 90 -1 -1 +2 +0 +3 0.3
202027 MLB RAWMinnesota Twins — 123113 25324 5445 02 221285389674 168323 364 301 90 -1 -1 +2 +0 +3 0.3
202128 MLB MLE2 teams — 214196 41714 13744 12 209272316589 107314 356 260 62 -10 -1 -0 -2 +5 -0.8
202128 MLB RAW2 teams — 214194 42714 15724 12 216286325611 108322 347 278 62 -10 -1 -0 -2 +5 -0.8
202229 AAA MLE2 teams — 550503 11223916 371637 120 223285400685 177294 307 296 87 — — — — — —
202229 AAA RAW2 teams — 550486 123271019 541427 120 253336467803 214317 2610 352 87 — — — — — —
202330 AAA MLE2 teams — 478431 10430215 361226 53 241309425733 183299 268 318 101 — — — — — —
202330 AAA RAW2 teams — 478421 12138221 461116 53 287366537903 249341 2310 390 101 — — — — — —
202431 MLB MLEColorado Rockies — 346324 751536 17981 52 231272352624 120309 285 282 77 -9 +0 -4 -4 +7 -0.9
202431 MLB RAWColorado Rockies — 346323 811657 18981 52 251292396689 146335 285 302 77 -9 +0 -4 -4 +7 -0.9
202633 AAA MLECharlotte Knights — 178164 30704 13530 81 183243299542 116241 307 242 50 — — — — — —
202633 AAA RAWCharlotte Knights — 178157 36906 20440 81 229316401718 172278 2511 320 50 — — — — — —
201320 A MLECharleston RiverDogs — 520479 1233362 281458 189 257311363674 106349 285 287 80 — — — — — —
201421 A+ MLE2 teams — 613570 1492686 351733 126 261307367673 105361 286 292 84 — — — — — —
201522 AA MLE2 teams — 592550 1512451 311356 173 275324342665 67355 235 293 85 — — — — — —
201623 AAA MLE2 teams — 470438 10922107 241285 67 249296393688 144331 275 295 86 — — — — — —
201724 AAA MLE2 teams — 437415 10923414 181391 23 263294439733 176359 324 313 98 — — — — — —
201825 MLB MLE2 teams — 559513 13024319 341707 63 253311423734 170336 306 318 101 — — — — — —
201926 MLB MLE2 teams — 442401 11125514 301318 50 277340469809 192368 307 352 124 — — — — — —
202027 MLB MLEMinnesota Twins — 123112 25324 5445 02 223285393677 170323 364 301 90 — — — — — —
202128 MLB MLE2 teams — 214195 41714 13744 12 210272318590 108311 356 260 62 — — — — — —
202229 AAA MLE2 teams — 550501 11223916 371637 120 224285401686 178292 307 296 87 — — — — — —
202330 AAA MLE2 teams — 478433 10430215 361226 53 240309423731 182296 268 318 101 — — — — — —
202431 MLB MLEColorado Rockies — 346325 751536 17981 52 231272351623 120335 285 282 77 — — — — — —
202633 AAA MLECharlotte Knights — 178163 30704 13530 81 184243301544 117242 307 242 50 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202431 MLB MLEColorado Rockies — 346325 751536 17981 52 231272351623 120335 285 282 77 — — — — — —
202633 AAA MLECharlotte Knights — 178163 30704 13530 81 184243301544 117242 307 242 50 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202734 MLB MLECWS 10% 255235 561216 17681 72 236289369658 133306 277 293 84 -5 +1 +0 -3 +6 0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202734 MLB CTXCWS 10% 1615 3100 140 00 237290372662 134306 256 294 84 -0 +0 +0 -0 +0 -0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202835 MLB MLECWS 100% 123114 26512 8340 21 225277346622 120296 287 278 74 -4 +0 -5 -1 +3 -0.8
202835 MLB CTXCWS 100% 123114 27513 8340 21 226278348626 122297 287 279 74 -4 +0 -5 -1 +3 -0.8
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 16871543 364721748 10651521 157 236294398692 162319 316 304 89 -16 +0 -8 -21 +37 -0.8
/ 162G— A+C — 650595 14028718 411988 63 235294397691 161318 306 304 89 -6 +0 -3 -8 +14 -0.3
Career— MLE — 58035346 133027460118 339165162 10343 249301389690 140335 286 300 89 -19 +1 -7 -22 +40 -0.9
/ 162G— MLE — 650599 14931713 381857 125 249301389690 140336 286 300 89 -7 +0 -3 -8 +14 -0.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAACharlotte Knights · 178 PAwOBA .314 → .242 (−72)K% 24.7% → 29.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA24.72%÷1.000×1.200——29.66%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.24%÷1.000×0.690—×0.9407.29%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×0.9400.00%
Singles /BIP18.58%÷1.000×0.930×1.050×0.94017.06%
Doubles /BIP7.96%÷1.000×0.830×1.050×0.9406.52%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.970×1.050×0.9400.00%
Home runs /BIP5.31%÷1.000×0.700—×0.9403.49%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 34 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .314 → .242; ISO .172 → .122; BABIP .278 → .242. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 275 PAwOBA .464 → .351 (−113)K% 20.4% → 24.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.36%÷0.996×1.200——24.54%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.27%÷0.982×0.690—×0.9627.62%
HBP% /PA1.82%—×0.940—×0.9621.64%
Singles /BIP19.34%÷1.016×0.930×1.027×0.96217.49%
Doubles /BIP16.57%÷1.117×0.830×1.027×0.96212.17%
Triples /BIP0.55%÷1.105×0.970×1.027×0.9620.48%
Home runs /BIP8.84%÷1.028×0.700—×0.9625.79%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 103, 2B 123, 3B 121, K 99, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.027.

Result: wOBA .464 → .351; ISO .338 → .234; BABIP .395 → .316. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAASt. Paul Saints · 373 PAwOBA .374 → .303 (−71)K% 24.9% → 30.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA24.93%÷0.981×1.200——30.49%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.72%÷1.012×0.690—×0.9727.11%
HBP% /PA1.88%—×0.940—×0.9721.71%
Singles /BIP20.52%÷1.000×0.930×1.050×0.97219.48%
Doubles /BIP8.73%÷1.079×0.830×1.050×0.9726.86%
Triples /BIP3.06%÷1.150×0.970×1.050×0.9722.63%
Home runs /BIP6.11%÷0.881×0.700—×0.9724.72%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 100, 2B 116, 3B 130, K 96, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .374 → .303; ISO .236 → .185; BABIP .343 → .303. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAASt. Paul Saints · 36 PAwOBA .426 → .333 (−93)K% 27.8% → 33.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA27.78%÷0.983×1.200——33.91%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.89%÷1.024×0.690—×0.9829.19%
HBP% /PA2.78%—×0.940—×0.9822.56%
Singles /BIP45.00%÷1.035×0.930—×0.98239.71%
Doubles /BIP5.00%÷0.996×0.830—×0.9824.09%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.920—×0.9820.00%
Home runs /BIP5.00%÷1.121×0.700—×0.9823.07%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 107, 2B 99, 3B 80, K 97, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .426 → .333; ISO .133 → .087; BABIP .526 → .452. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAARochester Red Wings · 214 PAwOBA .418 → .346 (−72)K% 23.4% → 28.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA23.36%÷0.999×1.200——28.07%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.01%÷1.095×0.690—×1.0034.43%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×1.0030.00%
Singles /BIP27.40%÷0.982×0.930×0.974×1.00325.35%
Doubles /BIP12.33%÷1.063×0.830×0.974×1.0039.40%
Triples /BIP2.74%÷1.150×0.970×0.974×1.0032.26%
Home runs /BIP4.79%÷0.958×0.840—×1.0034.22%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 96, 2B 113, 3B 130, K 100, BB 119 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.974.

Result: wOBA .418 → .346; ISO .240 → .196; BABIP .437 → .378. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAARochester Red Wings · 250 PAwOBA .334 → .296 (−38)K% 22.0% → 27.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.00%÷0.978×1.200——27.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.00%÷1.008×0.690—×1.0186.97%
HBP% /PA1.60%—×0.940—×1.0181.53%
Singles /BIP26.09%÷1.023×0.930×1.022×1.01824.66%
Doubles /BIP5.59%÷1.009×0.830×1.022×1.0184.78%
Triples /BIP0.62%÷1.150×0.970×1.022×1.0180.54%
Home runs /BIP3.73%÷0.879×0.840—×1.0183.63%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 105, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 96, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.022.

Result: wOBA .334 → .296; ISO .134 → .125; BABIP .327 → .303. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 297 PAwOBA .390 → .315 (−74)K% 27.6% → 33.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA27.61%÷0.995×1.200——33.30%
BB% (unintentional) /PA5.72%÷1.105×0.690—×1.0333.69%
HBP% /PA0.34%—×0.940—×1.0330.33%
Singles /BIP30.10%÷0.980×0.930×0.987×1.03329.12%
Doubles /BIP6.63%÷0.951×0.830×0.987×1.0335.90%
Triples /BIP1.53%÷1.150×0.970×0.987×1.0331.32%
Home runs /BIP7.65%÷1.247×0.840—×1.0335.33%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 149, 1B 96, 2B 90, 3B 130, K 99, BB 121 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.987.

Result: wOBA .390 → .315; ISO .230 → .164; BABIP .414 → .384. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AATrenton Thunder · 140 PAwOBA .349 → .308 (−42)K% 23.6% → 28.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA23.57%÷1.007×1.220——28.56%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.14%÷0.979×0.700—×0.9985.10%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.850—×0.9980.00%
Singles /BIP14.74%÷1.020×0.970×1.050×0.99814.69%
Doubles /BIP13.68%÷0.936×0.860×1.050×0.99813.17%
Triples /BIP2.11%÷1.150×0.950×1.050×0.9981.82%
Home runs /BIP5.26%÷0.960×0.780—×0.9984.27%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 104, 2B 87, 3B 130, K 101, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .349 → .308; ISO .250 → .215; BABIP .319 → .307. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).