Jake Cave — OGILVIE

Jake CaveCF Durham Bulls

Age 33 L/L 6'0" / 200 lbs AAA HR -6%H +4% Svc 8.000 · Ctrl thru 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION39 act + 349 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL -6975vR 131

AVG/OBP/SLG.250 / .306 / .409

PA349

HR9

SB7

K%26

BB%7

BABIP320

ISO159

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2022-2024

CONTACT45

Whiff%

2613.7%

xwOBA

290.284

POWER40

Barrel%

427.1

Avg EV

4588.8

Bat Spd

3369.5

EYE40

Chase%

2836.1%

SPEED55

Sprint

5527.7

Platoon Splits2024 · 346 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

304

—

wRC+

-75

109

▶▶R

wOBA

087

327

▶▶R

ISO

—

167

—

BABIP

174

354

▶▶R

42.9%

26.3%

▶▶R

BB%

0.0%

5.6%

—

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2018

Service 8.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext / FA-deal	$0.6M	+0.0	$0.2M	-$0.4M
Totals		$0.6M		$0.2M	-$0.4M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2013	20	A	Charleston RiverDogs	—	520	475	123	34	5	2	29	142	8	18	9	259	312	364	677	105	361	27	6	292	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	20	A	Charleston RiverDogs	—	520	464	131	37	6	2	40	110	8	18	9	282	350	401	750	119	362	21	8	333	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	21	A+	2 teams	—	613	572	141	25	7	7	35	184	3	12	6	247	293	351	645	105	352	30	6	282	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	21	A+	2 teams	—	613	561	165	28	9	7	46	124	3	12	6	294	351	414	764	119	367	20	8	341	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	AA	2 teams	—	592	547	141	23	4	1	28	150	6	17	3	258	301	320	621	62	348	25	5	275	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	AA	2 teams	—	592	529	147	25	6	2	46	106	6	17	3	278	343	359	702	81	340	18	8	314	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	AAA	2 teams	—	470	439	104	21	9	7	23	131	5	6	7	237	283	374	656	137	320	28	5	285	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	AAA	2 teams	—	470	426	114	26	9	8	36	106	5	6	7	268	332	427	759	160	338	23	8	335	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	AAA	2 teams	—	437	417	107	24	3	13	17	141	1	2	3	257	287	422	709	165	356	32	4	304	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	AAA	2 teams	—	437	406	124	26	5	20	28	115	1	2	3	305	352	542	894	236	382	26	6	388	155	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	MLB	2 teams	—	559	508	127	23	3	19	35	171	7	6	3	250	307	419	727	169	332	31	6	314	98	-1	+0	-1	+2	+16	1.6
2018	25	MLB	2 teams	—	559	499	133	25	3	19	44	157	7	6	3	267	335	443	777	176	345	28	8	340	118	+12	+0	-1	+2	+16	2.9
2019	26	MLB	2 teams	—	442	400	110	24	5	14	30	131	8	5	0	275	338	465	803	190	371	30	7	347	124	+12	+1	+0	-5	+13	2.2
2019	26	MLB	2 teams	—	442	394	120	29	6	15	36	121	8	5	0	305	374	523	897	218	401	27	8	390	157	+28	+1	+0	-5	+13	3.8
2020	27	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	123	113	25	3	2	4	5	44	5	0	2	221	285	389	674	168	323	36	4	297	86	-2	-1	+2	+0	+3	0.4
2020	27	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	123	113	25	3	2	4	5	44	5	0	2	221	285	389	674	168	323	36	4	301	89	-2	-1	+2	+0	+3	0.4
2021	28	MLB	2 teams	—	214	196	41	7	1	4	13	74	4	1	2	209	272	316	589	107	314	35	6	257	55	-11	-1	-0	-2	+6	-0.8
2021	28	MLB	2 teams	—	214	194	42	7	1	4	15	72	4	1	2	216	286	325	611	108	322	34	7	278	71	-7	-1	-0	-2	+6	-0.4
2022	29	AAA	2 teams	—	550	502	115	22	8	20	38	165	7	12	0	229	293	424	717	195	297	30	7	309	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	29	AAA	2 teams	—	550	486	123	27	10	19	54	142	7	12	0	253	336	467	803	214	317	26	10	352	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	30	AAA	2 teams	—	478	430	105	28	2	18	37	123	6	5	3	244	313	444	757	200	297	26	8	324	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	30	AAA	2 teams	—	478	421	121	38	2	21	46	111	6	5	3	287	366	537	903	249	341	23	10	390	157	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	31	MLB	Colorado Rockies	—	346	323	70	13	4	5	18	98	1	5	2	217	260	328	588	111	291	28	5	258	56	-17	+0	-4	-4	+10	-1.5
2024	31	MLB	Colorado Rockies	—	346	323	81	16	5	7	18	98	1	5	2	251	292	396	689	146	335	28	5	302	89	-4	+0	-4	-4	+10	-0.2
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	33	AAA	TB	—	39	33	9	2	0	2	6	7	0	2	0	273	385	515	900	242	292	18	15	370	141	+2	+0	+0	-0	+1	0.3
YTD	33	AAA	TB	—	39	30	9	2	0	2	9	6	0	2	0	300	462	567	1.028	267	318	15	23	450	202	+5	+0	+0	-0	+1	0.6
ROS	33	AAA	TB	10%	349	320	80	16	4	9	24	91	2	7	1	250	306	409	716	159	319	26	7	318	101	+1	+1	+1	-4	+10	0.9
ROS	33	MLB	TB	10%	35	33	8	2	0	1	2	9	0	1	0	242	286	394	680	152	323	26	6	314	99	-0	+0	+0	-0	+1	0.1
FULL	33	AAA	TB	—	74	66	17	4	0	3	8	16	0	3	0	258	338	455	792	197	298	22	11	344	121	+2	+1	+0	-1	+2	0.4
TOT	33	AAA	TB	—	388	353	89	18	4	11	30	98	2	9	1	252	314	419	734	167	317	25	8	323	105	+2	+1	+1	-4	+11	1.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	34	MLB	TB	100%	343	315	77	15	4	9	23	92	2	4	1	244	300	403	703	159	312	27	7	307	93	-3	+0	-4	-4	+10	-0.0
2028	35	MLB	TB	100%	290	266	63	12	3	7	20	80	2	3	1	237	295	383	679	147	304	28	7	295	84	-5	+0	-5	-3	+8	-0.5
2029	36	MLB	TB	100%	232	214	47	8	2	5	15	66	1	1	0	220	274	346	620	126	296	28	6	283	75	-7	+0	-6	-2	+7	-0.8
2027	34	MLB	TB	100%	343	315	77	15	4	8	23	92	2	4	1	244	300	394	694	149	316	27	7	304	91	-4	+0	-4	-4	+10	-0.1
2028	35	MLB	TB	100%	290	266	62	11	3	7	20	80	2	3	1	233	292	376	668	143	308	28	7	292	82	-6	+0	-5	-3	+8	-0.6
2029	36	MLB	TB	100%	232	214	48	8	3	5	15	66	1	1	0	224	278	360	638	136	300	28	6	280	73	-7	+0	-6	-2	+7	-0.9
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2464	2257	532	103	26	66	158	728	26	22	8	236	293	392	685	156	315	30	6	302	89	-30	+1	-17	-29	+70	-0.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	595	140	27	7	17	42	192	7	6	2	235	293	390	683	155	315	30	6	302	89	-8	+0	-4	-8	+18	-0.1
Career	—			—	6558	6037	1476	298	66	144	390	1883	68	104	43	244	298	387	685	143	329	29	6	298	87	-100	+4	-16	-61	+186	1.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	598	147	30	7	14	39	187	7	10	4	246	300	390	689	144	332	29	6	298	87	-10	+0	-2	-6	+18	0.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2013	20	A	Charleston RiverDogs	—	520	464	131	37	6	2	40	110	8	18	9	282	350	401	750	119	362	21	8	333	113	+7	+0	—	—	+15	2.3
2014	21	AA	Trenton Thunder	—	197	176	48	10	5	4	18	44	1	2	3	273	344	455	798	182	344	22	9	349	125	+6	-1	—	—	+6	1.1
2014	21	A+	Tampa Yankees	—	416	385	117	18	4	3	28	80	2	10	3	304	354	395	749	91	377	19	7	337	116	+7	+1	—	—	+12	2.0
2015	22	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	29	24	11	3	1	0	3	8	1	0	0	458	536	667	1.202	208	647	28	10	504	244	+5	+0	—	—	+1	0.6
2015	22	AA	Trenton Thunder	—	563	505	136	22	5	2	43	98	5	17	3	269	333	345	677	75	327	17	8	304	91	-6	+2	—	—	+16	1.2
2016	23	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	354	322	84	18	6	5	26	78	4	3	3	261	324	401	724	140	329	22	7	322	105	+2	-1	—	—	+10	1.2
2016	23	AA	Trenton Thunder	—	116	104	30	8	3	3	10	28	1	3	4	288	357	510	866	221	365	24	9	375	145	+6	-1	—	—	+3	0.8
2017	24	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	297	278	90	13	3	15	18	82	1	1	3	324	367	554	921	230	414	28	6	402	166	+22	-1	—	—	+8	3.0
2017	24	AA	Trenton Thunder	—	140	128	34	13	2	5	10	33	0	1	0	266	319	516	834	250	319	24	7	357	131	+5	+0	—	—	+4	0.9
2018	25	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	309	283	75	16	2	13	18	102	3	2	1	265	316	473	789	208	363	33	6	341	119	+7	+0	-1	+2	+9	1.7
2018	25	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	250	216	58	9	1	6	26	55	4	4	2	269	358	403	761	134	327	22	10	339	118	+5	+0	—	—	+7	1.2
2019	26	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	228	198	51	11	2	8	21	71	8	0	0	258	352	455	807	197	358	31	9	358	132	+8	+0	+0	-5	+6	1.1
2019	26	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	214	196	69	18	4	7	15	50	0	5	0	352	398	592	990	240	437	23	7	424	183	+20	+1	—	—	+6	2.8
2020	27	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	123	113	25	3	2	4	5	44	5	0	2	221	285	389	674	168	323	36	4	301	89	-2	-1	+2	+0	+3	0.4
2021	28	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	178	164	31	6	1	3	10	62	3	1	1	189	249	293	541	104	283	35	6	246	46	-11	-0	-0	-2	+5	-0.9
2021	28	AAA	St. Paul Saints	—	36	30	11	1	0	1	5	10	1	0	1	367	472	500	972	133	526	28	14	437	193	+4	-0	—	—	+1	0.4
2022	29	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	177	164	35	7	3	5	11	49	0	2	0	213	263	384	647	171	268	28	6	283	74	-5	+0	-0	-6	+5	-0.6
2022	29	AAA	St. Paul Saints	—	373	322	88	20	7	14	43	93	7	10	0	273	371	509	880	236	343	25	12	386	153	+22	+2	—	—	+11	3.6
2023	30	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	203	184	39	8	1	5	15	55	1	3	0	212	275	348	623	136	270	27	7	276	70	-7	+1	+0	-5	+6	-0.6
2023	30	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	275	237	82	30	1	16	31	56	5	2	3	346	432	684	1.116	338	395	20	11	474	221	+38	-1	—	—	+8	4.6
2024	31	MLB	Colorado Rockies	—	346	323	81	16	5	7	18	98	1	5	2	251	292	396	689	146	335	28	5	302	89	-4	+0	-4	-4	+10	-0.2
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1564	1429	337	67	16	45	98	481	21	13	6	236	295	400	694	164	319	31	6	306	92	-14	+0	-2	-19	+44	0.9

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Laynce Nixlast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,038 PA	9	2,038	69	9	243	289	422	-13	+8	4.3	4.9
#1Laynce Nixlast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,038 PA	/162	664	22	3	243	289	422	-4.1	+2.5	1.4	pk7: 5
#2Chris Heiseylast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,758 PA	8	1,758	62	25	238	296	413	-18	+3	3.0	3.2
	/162	664	23	9	238	296	413	-6.7	+1.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Nate Schierholtzlast yr '14 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,275 PA	8	2,275	52	30	253	302	405	-24	-6	2.0	2.8
	/162	664	15	9	253	302	405	-7.1	-1.8	0.6	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 10 projected seasons	10	2,468	66	22	236	290	393	-26	-8	2.1	2.8
	/162	664	18	6	236	290	393	-7.1	-2.2	0.6	pk7: 3
#4Travis Sniderlast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,971 PA	8	1,971	54	22	244	311	399	-21	-17	1.4	1.8
	/162	664	18	7	244	311	399	-7.1	-5.8	0.5	pk7: 2
#5John Mabrylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,560 PA	7	1,560	54	2	243	309	416	-15	-16	1.6	1.6
#5John Mabrylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,560 PA	/162	664	23	1	243	309	416	-6.5	-6.7	0.7	pk7: 2
#6Chad Pinderlast yr '22 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,740 PA	7	1,740	62	5	242	294	417	-17	-20	0.6	0.6
	/162	664	24	2	242	294	417	-6.5	-7.6	0.2	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jake Cave (OGILVIE)	33	45	40	55	40	252/314/419	167	317	11	9	25%	8%	105	+1.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Charlie Culberson 2022 · MLB	33	48→49	47→45	53→50	44	240/293/382	142	299	14	13	24%	6%	89	+0.9	229/274/343	114	308	11	12	28%	6%	70	-0.3	214/242/286	73	304	7	12	31%	4%	40	-0.5
✕Israel Nunez 2019 · AAA	33	47	46→40	49→40	44	233/276/359	126	274	14	9	21%	5%	75	-0.0	238/277/338	100	281	10	8	19%	4%	69	-0.4	259/286/315	57	300	6	0	16%	1%	63	-0.2
✕Trinidad Robles 2006 · AAA	33	48	47→40	49→45	44	241/290/372	131	290	15	11	23%	6%	84	+0.6	240/294/348	108	296	10	10	21%	6%	79	+0.3	237/294/328	90	293	8	7	21%	6%	73	-0.1
✕Joe Thurston 2013 · AAA	33	47→57	46→45	48→50	46	233/294/366	133	267	14	10	19%	6%	85	+0.7	238/302/343	105	279	9	11	18%	7%	82	+0.5	242/308/336	93	283	8	10	16%	8%	80	+0.2
✕Johnny Monell 2018 · MLB	32	46→44	45→50	48→45	45	229/279/349	120	274	14	7	22%	6%	74	-0.1	228/278/352	124	318	10	7	30%	6%	74	-0.1	230/279/351	121	336	6	0	32%	6%	72	-0.1
✕Kristopher Negrón 2019 · MLB	33	44→51	45	54→55	38	217/273/340	123	308	13	16	33%	6%	69	-0.4	231/291/357	126	336	14	14	33%	7%	82	+0.5	239/303/358	120	349	14	14	33%	7%	82	+0.4
✕Jesus Cota 2015 · AAA	33	41→51	46→50	49→50	44	210/264/335	125	256	15	7	24%	6%	64	-0.8	211/259/326	115	287	13	8	30%	6%	59	-1.1	170/213/245	75	234	11	0	32%	5%	17	-1.0
✕Preston Tucker 2023 · AAA	33	47→46	48→55	48→40	47	237/296/376	140	273	15	6	20%	6%	89	+0.9	242/326/401	159	297	17	7	23%	10%	108	+2.3	242/359/428	186	300	19	2	24%	13%	124	+1.4
✕Drew Maggi 2022 · AAA	33	42→52	47→45	49→60	41	209/286/343	134	300	15	14	34%	7%	76	+0.1	186/253/283	97	263	9	20	31%	6%	46	-2.0	161/228/240	79	222	7	22	29%	6%	23	-1.2
✕Chris Herrmann 2021 · MLB	33	48	48→50	49→50	47	233/306/380	146	321	16	6	31%	9%	93	+1.3	208/276/324	116	304	11	6	33%	8%	66	-0.6	186/263/314	128	280	12	0	36%	8%	57	-0.4
✕Mike Freeman 2021 · MLB	33	49→59	45	43→55	46	237/306/361	124	311	13	8	27%	8%	89	+0.9	221/294/339	118	299	12	8	28%	9%	78	+0.2	196/275/293	97	271	9	6	29%	9%	54	-0.7
✕Austin Romine 2022 · MLB	33	49→53	46→45	46→45	38	244/280/368	125	325	14	5	29%	5%	79	+0.3	214/260/332	118	289	14	6	30%	5%	62	-0.9	174/208/255	81	235	11	0	31%	4%	16	-1.3
✕David Matranga 2009 · AAA	32	42	46→45	49→50	42	213/278/339	126	281	14	10	29%	6%	72	-0.2	223/303/350	127	303	13	9	28%	9%	85	+0.7	209/311/324	115	287	11	5	28%	10%	82	+0.2
✕Beau Taylor 2022 · MLB	32	43→45	43→45	47→30	44	208/284/314	107	301	11	4	33%	8%	68	-0.5	210/293/322	112	303	12	6	32%	9%	74	-0.1	170/285/261	91	250	11	0	33%	12%	53	-0.5
✕Don Kelly 2013 · MLB	33	45→55	45	51→55	50	227/286/344	118	253	14	10	17%	7%	76	+0.0	229/310/335	106	259	10	11	15%	10%	83	+0.6	206/286/278	73	239	6	8	16%	10%	56	-0.5
✕Jesus Alberto Vega 2015 · AAA	33	46	46→50	46→40	42	231/280/354	123	290	14	6	26%	6%	76	+0.0	216/263/315	99	304	9	5	31%	5%	58	-1.2	200/248/285	84	289	8	1	32%	5%	40	-0.7
✕Cliff Pennington 2017 · MLB	33	45→55	41→45	53→55	50	221/292/320	99	279	9	8	23%	9%	72	-0.2	213/282/307	94	283	9	9	26%	8%	64	-0.8	196/269/275	79	262	7	9	26%	9%	50	-0.6
✕Rob Brantly 2022 · MLB	33	50→57	46→50	49→30	46	247/315/372	125	284	13	5	18%	6%	96	+1.5	231/298/330	99	278	8	5	19%	5%	78	+0.2	222/292/306	84	271	6	1	19%	5%	66	-0.2
●Cory Aldridge 2012 · AAA	33	46→50	51→55	46→45	39	234/279/395	161	313	19	6	31%	6%	86	+0.8	212/271/379	167	311	24	8	38%	7%	79	+0.3	214/280/387	173	293	27	5	36%	8%	84	+0.3
✕Anthony Bemboom 2023 · MLB	33	41	46→45	48→45	46	209/278/336	127	264	14	5	26%	8%	70	-0.3	214/282/331	117	278	11	5	26%	8%	71	-0.3	202/279/310	107	265	9	1	25%	9%	62	-0.3