Eddy Alvarez

3B Gwinnett Stripers

Age 37 L/R 5'8" / 178 lbs AAA Svc 7.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

AAAExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2023	33	AAABOS	259	.286/.410/.476	7	17	84	—	.224/.317/.352
2024	34	AAA/INTL2 orgs	491	.244/.351/.459	19	21	72	—	.195/.273/.345
2025	35	AAAATL	197	.176/.325/.302	5	10	33	—	.146/.247/.240
2027PROJ10% MLB	37	MLBATL	15	.225/.303/.356	0	0	87	0.0
2028PROJMLE	38	MLBATL	0	.216/.292/.334	0	0	78	—

Next 2 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service7.000First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$2M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2025 AAA

BB%81

Z-Con%81

Speed71

Whiff%68

Chase%65

K%52

CompsCurtis Pride (age 37) · Pedro Swann (age 36) · Humberto Cota (age 37)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†87

AVG/OBP/SLG.225 / .303 / .356

PA15

HR0

K%27

BB%7

BABIP283

ISO71

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2021-2024

CONTACT35

xAVG

120.220

POWER45

Barrel%

204.3

Avg EV

5189.2

Bat Spd

4370.6

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED55

Sprint

7628.5

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2020

Service 7.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+0.0	$0.1M	-$2M
Totals		$2M		$0.1M	-$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2014	24	A	Kannapolis Intimidators	—	80	72	31	6	0	3	7	10	1	4	4	431	487	639	1.126	208	475	12	9	493	160	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	24	ROK	ACL White Sox	—	130	110	32	5	1	2	20	24	0	5	6	291	400	409	809	118	357	18	15	368	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	25	A+	Winston-Salem Dash	—	143	120	39	6	1	3	19	17	0	11	7	325	417	467	884	142	353	12	13	385	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	25	A	Kannapolis Intimidators	—	410	330	94	23	6	2	69	68	2	42	8	285	411	409	821	124	350	17	17	366	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	26	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	39	35	10	2	0	0	4	7	0	2	0	286	359	343	702	57	357	18	10	323	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	26	AA	Birmingham Barons	—	463	395	104	17	3	6	46	76	2	9	6	263	343	367	710	104	308	16	10	310	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	27	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	118	100	24	0	0	0	14	32	3	1	0	240	350	240	590		348	27	12	286	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	27	AA	Birmingham Barons	—	398	329	77	16	2	4	55	73	4	7	5	234	351	331	682	97	285	18	14	310	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	28	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	364	308	78	26	3	8	43	79	3	5	3	253	349	435	784	182	314	22	12	341	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	29	AAA	New Orleans Baby Cakes	—	271	235	76	18	2	12	30	53	4	12	3	323	409	570	979	247	374	20	11	424	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	30	MLB	Miami Marlins	—	41	37	7	1	0	0	3	16	1	2	0	189	268	216	485	27	333	39	7	233	47	-3	+0	-0	+0	+1	-0.1
2021	31	MLB	Miami Marlins	—	74	64	12	4	1	1	4	18	6	1	0	188	297	328	625	141	244	24	5	290	83	-1	+0	-2	+1	+2	-0.1
2021	31	AAA	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	138	111	32	5	0	4	18	27	8	2	5	288	423	441	865	153	350	20	13	391	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	31	A	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	20	15	9	0	0	2	3	2	1	2	0	600	650	1.000	1.650	400	636	10	15	666	283	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	32	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	27	25	4	0	0	0	0	9	0	1	0	160	160	160	320		235	33	0	134	-22	-4	+0	-2	-3	+1	-0.8
2022	32	AAA	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	215	177	57	9	4	8	28	55	9	3	3	322	439	554	993	232	430	26	13	434	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	33	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	—	259	206	59	14	2	7	37	58	6	17	2	286	410	476	885	189	356	22	14	381	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	34	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	—	454	381	94	26	1	18	49	109	13	18	7	247	352	462	814	215	295	24	11	354	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	34	INTL	Criollos de Caguas	—	37	29	6	3	0	1	5	9	1	3	0	207	343	414	757	207	250	24	14	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	35	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	197	159	28	5	0	5	28	45	7	10	3	176	325	302	627	126	209	23	14	293	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	142	126	23	5	1	1	7	43	7	4	0	183	264	262	526	79	265	30	5	244	51	-8	+1	-4	-2	+3	-1.0
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2014	24	A MLE	Kannapolis Intimidators	—	80	74	28	5	0	3	5	13	1	4	4	378	425	568	993	189	416	16	6	405	160	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	24	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	—	130	118	25	4	1	1	12	35	0	5	6	212	285	288	573	76	285	27	9	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	25	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	—	143	128	36	4	1	2	11	26	0	11	7	281	338	375	713	94	321	18	8	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	25	A MLE	Kannapolis Intimidators	—	410	356	89	21	6	2	43	95	2	42	8	250	334	360	694	110	319	23	10	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	26	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	39	36	9	2	0	0	3	8	0	2	0	250	308	306	613	56	324	21	8	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	26	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	—	463	410	105	19	3	5	31	94	2	9	6	256	312	354	665	98	295	20	7	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	27	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	118	104	21	0	0	0	10	40	3	1	0	202	291	202	493		315	34	8	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	27	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	—	398	347	73	15	2	4	37	91	4	7	5	210	294	300	594	89	254	23	9	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	28	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	364	324	69	21	3	5	28	96	3	5	3	213	282	343	624	130	273	26	8	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	29	AAA MLE	New Orleans Baby Cakes	—	271	246	61	14	2	8	19	72	4	12	3	248	312	419	731	171	309	27	7	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	30	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	41	37	7	1	0	0	3	16	1	2	0	189	268	216	485	27	333	39	7	238	47	-3	+0	-0	+0	+1	-0.1
2021	31	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	74	65	12	4	1	1	3	18	6	1	0	185	284	323	607	138	244	24	4	291	83	-1	+0	-2	+1	+2	-0.1
2021	31	AAA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	138	118	29	4	0	3	11	33	8	2	5	246	350	356	706	110	318	24	8	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	31	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	20	17	9	0	0	2	2	3	1	2	0	529	600	882	1.482	353	539	15	10	587	283	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	32	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	27	25	4	0	0	0	0	9	0	1	0	160	160	160	320		235	33	0	135	-22	-4	+0	-2	-3	+1	-0.8
2022	32	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	215	188	49	8	4	5	17	65	9	3	3	261	350	426	776	165	367	30	8	338	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	33	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	—	259	219	49	9	2	5	24	68	6	17	2	224	317	352	669	128	276	26	9	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	34	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	—	454	400	78	22	1	12	30	130	13	18	7	195	273	345	618	150	244	29	7	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	35	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	197	171	25	4	0	4	16	55	7	10	3	146	247	240	487	94	180	28	8	217	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	24	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	210	193	52	8	1	4	16	48	1	9	10	269	329	383	712	114	340	23	8	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	24	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	210	182	63	11	1	5	27	34	1	9	10	346	433	500	933	154	406	16	13	416	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	25	A MLE	2 teams	—	553	484	124	25	7	4	54	121	2	53	15	256	333	362	695	105	330	22	10	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	25	A RAW	2 teams	—	553	450	133	29	7	5	88	85	2	53	15	296	413	424	837	129	351	15	16	371	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	26	AA MLE	2 teams	—	502	446	114	21	3	5	34	102	2	11	6	256	311	350	661	94	317	20	7	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	26	AA RAW	2 teams	—	502	430	114	19	3	6	50	83	2	11	6	265	344	365	710	100	312	17	10	311	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	27	AA MLE	2 teams	—	516	452	93	15	2	4	46	131	7	8	5	206	289	274	563	69	276	25	9	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	27	AA RAW	2 teams	—	516	429	101	16	2	4	69	105	7	8	5	235	350	310	661	75	298	20	13	304	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	28	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	364	324	69	21	3	5	28	96	3	5	3	213	282	343	624	130	284	26	8	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	28	AAA RAW	Charlotte Knights	—	364	308	78	26	3	8	43	79	3	5	3	253	349	435	784	182	314	22	12	341	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	29	AAA MLE	New Orleans Baby Cakes	—	271	246	61	14	2	8	19	72	4	12	3	248	312	419	731	171	317	27	7	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	29	AAA RAW	New Orleans Baby Cakes	—	271	235	76	18	2	12	30	53	4	12	3	323	409	570	979	247	374	20	11	424	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	30	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	41	37	7	1	0	0	3	16	1	2	0	189	268	216	485	27	333	39	7	238	47	-3	+0	-0	+0	+1	-0.1
2020	30	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	—	41	37	7	1	0	0	3	16	1	2	0	189	268	216	485	27	333	39	7	233	47	-3	+0	-0	+0	+1	-0.1
2021	31	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	232	200	51	9	1	6	16	54	15	5	5	255	355	400	755	145	321	23	7	336	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	31	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	232	190	53	9	1	7	25	47	15	5	5	279	403	447	850	168	338	20	11	383	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	32	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	242	213	53	8	4	5	17	74	9	4	3	249	331	394	725	146	356	31	7	315	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	32	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	242	202	61	9	4	8	28	64	9	4	3	302	410	505	915	203	405	26	12	401	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	33	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	—	259	219	49	9	2	5	24	68	6	17	2	224	317	352	669	128	291	26	9	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	33	AAA RAW	Worcester Red Sox	—	259	206	59	14	2	7	37	58	6	17	2	286	410	476	885	189	356	22	14	381	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	34	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	491	431	85	24	1	13	33	141	14	21	7	197	276	348	624	151	255	29	7	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	34	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	491	410	100	29	1	19	54	118	14	21	7	244	351	459	810	215	291	24	11	351	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	35	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	197	171	25	4	0	4	16	55	7	10	3	146	247	240	487	94	186	28	8	217	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	35	AAA RAW	Gwinnett Stripers	—	197	159	28	5	0	5	28	45	7	10	3	176	325	302	627	126	209	23	14	293	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	24	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	210	191	52	8	1	4	16	48	1	9	10	272	329	387	716	115	335	23	8	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	25	A MLE	2 teams	—	553	492	124	25	7	4	54	121	2	53	15	252	333	356	689	104	320	22	10	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	26	AA MLE	2 teams	—	502	461	114	21	3	5	34	102	2	11	6	247	311	338	650	91	297	20	7	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	27	AA MLE	2 teams	—	516	458	93	15	2	4	46	131	7	8	5	203	289	271	560	68	268	25	9	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	28	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	364	330	69	21	3	5	28	96	3	5	3	209	282	336	618	127	273	26	8	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	29	AAA MLE	New Orleans Baby Cakes	—	271	246	61	14	2	8	19	72	4	12	3	248	312	419	731	171	309	27	7	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	30	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	41	37	7	1	0	0	3	16	1	2	0	189	268	216	485	27	333	39	7	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	31	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	232	199	51	9	1	6	16	54	15	5	5	256	355	402	757	146	314	23	7	336	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	32	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	242	214	53	8	4	5	17	74	9	4	3	248	331	393	723	145	352	31	7	315	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	33	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	—	259	227	49	9	2	5	24	68	6	17	2	216	317	339	656	123	276	26	9	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	34	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	491	441	85	24	1	13	33	141	14	21	7	193	276	340	616	147	244	29	7	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	35	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	197	172	25	4	0	4	16	55	7	10	3	145	247	238	486	93	180	28	8	217	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	34	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	491	441	85	24	1	13	33	141	14	21	7	193	276	340	616	147	244	29	7	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	35	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	197	172	25	4	0	4	16	55	7	10	3	145	247	238	486	93	180	28	8	217	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	37	MLB MLE	ATL	10%	245	219	48	10	1	5	19	60	5	6	2	225	303	356	659	131	283	24	8	297	87	-4	+0	-0	+1	+5	0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	37	MLB CTX	ATL	10%	15	14	3	1	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	225	303	356	659	131	283	27	7	297	87	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	38	MLB MLE	ATL	0%	98	88	19	4	0	2	8	25	2	1	0	216	292	334	626	118	274	26	8	284	78	-3	+0	-8	+0	+2	-0.8
2028	38	MLB CTX	ATL	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	216	292	334	626	118	274	—	—	284	78	—	—	-0	+0	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	142	126	23	5	1	1	7	43	7	4	0	183	264	262	526	79	265	30	5	244	79	-8	+1	-4	-2	+3	-1.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	577	106	23	5	5	32	197	32	18	0	184	266	267	533	83	266	30	5	244	79	-38	+4	-19	-7	+14	-4.8
Career	—	MLE		—	4128	3640	832	169	27	68	326	1040	76	162	63	229	305	346	651	117	298	25	8	285	79	-13	+1	-12	-1	+8	-1.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	573	131	27	4	11	51	164	12	26	10	229	305	347	652	119	298	25	8	285	79	-22	+2	-20	-1	+14	-2.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 197 PAwOBA .288 → .217 (−71)K% 22.8% → 28.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.84%	÷0.976	×1.200	—	—	28.08%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.21%	÷1.140	×0.690	—	×0.940	8.09%
HBP% /PA	3.55%	—	×0.940	—	×0.940	3.14%
Singles /BIP	15.79%	÷0.968	×0.930	×1.026	×0.940	14.63%
Doubles /BIP	4.39%	÷1.162	×0.830	×1.026	×0.940	3.02%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	×1.026	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.39%	÷0.961	×0.700	—	×0.940	3.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 94, 2B 132, 3B 80, K 95, BB 128 — applied at half strength. Age: age 35 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.026.

Result: wOBA .288 → .217; ISO .126 → .090; BABIP .209 → .180. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 454 PAwOBA .347 → .270 (−78)K% 24.0% → 28.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.01%	÷1.004	×1.200	—	—	28.69%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.79%	÷1.049	×0.690	—	×0.940	6.67%
HBP% /PA	2.86%	—	×0.940	—	×0.940	2.53%
Singles /BIP	18.01%	÷1.036	×0.930	×1.014	×0.940	15.42%
Doubles /BIP	9.56%	÷0.951	×0.830	×1.014	×0.940	7.95%
Triples /BIP	0.37%	÷1.143	×0.970	×1.014	×0.940	0.30%
Home runs /BIP	6.62%	÷0.996	×0.700	—	×0.940	4.37%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 107, 2B 90, 3B 129, K 101, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 34 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.014.

Result: wOBA .347 → .270; ISO .215 → .160; BABIP .295 → .244. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 259 PAwOBA .378 → .293 (−85)K% 22.4% → 26.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.39%	÷1.023	×1.200	—	—	26.27%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.29%	÷0.986	×0.690	—	×0.942	9.42%
HBP% /PA	2.32%	—	×0.940	—	×0.942	2.05%
Singles /BIP	24.32%	÷0.996	×0.930	×0.970	×0.942	20.75%
Doubles /BIP	9.46%	÷1.309	×0.830	×0.970	×0.942	5.48%
Triples /BIP	1.35%	÷0.905	×0.970	×0.970	×0.942	1.32%
Home runs /BIP	4.73%	÷1.008	×0.700	—	×0.942	3.09%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 99, 2B 162, 3B 81, K 105, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 27.2 → −5.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.970.

Result: wOBA .378 → .293; ISO .189 → .136; BABIP .356 → .276. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAOklahoma City Dodgers · 215 PAwOBA .423 → .338 (−86)K% 25.6% → 30.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.58%	÷1.009	×1.200	—	—	30.42%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.02%	÷1.073	×0.690	—	×0.952	7.97%
HBP% /PA	4.19%	—	×0.940	—	×0.952	3.75%
Singles /BIP	29.51%	÷1.027	×0.930	×1.012	×0.952	25.75%
Doubles /BIP	7.38%	÷0.958	×0.830	×1.012	×0.952	6.16%
Triples /BIP	3.28%	÷0.955	×0.970	×1.012	×0.952	3.21%
Home runs /BIP	6.56%	÷0.997	×0.700	—	×0.952	4.38%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 105, 2B 92, 3B 91, K 102, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.

Result: wOBA .423 → .338; ISO .232 → .181; BABIP .430 → .367. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 138 PAwOBA .379 → .323 (−56)K% 19.6% → 23.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.57%	÷0.985	×1.200	—	—	23.84%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.32%	÷0.994	×0.690	—	×0.962	8.23%
HBP% /PA	5.80%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	5.24%
Singles /BIP	27.38%	÷0.971	×0.930	×1.012	×0.962	25.51%
Doubles /BIP	5.95%	÷0.933	×0.830	×1.012	×0.962	5.15%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.109	×0.920	×1.012	×0.962	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.76%	÷0.886	×0.700	—	×0.962	3.62%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 77, 1B 94, 2B 87, 3B 122, K 97, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.

Result: wOBA .379 → .323; ISO .153 → .125; BABIP .350 → .318. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AJupiter Hammerheads · 20 PAwOBA .648 → .587 (−61)K% 10.0% → 13.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	10.00%	÷1.021	×1.360	—	—	13.31%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.00%	÷0.993	×0.690	—	×0.940	9.80%
HBP% /PA	5.00%	—	×0.780	—	×0.940	3.67%
Singles /BIP	53.85%	÷0.993	×0.920	—	×0.940	46.91%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.226	×0.830	—	×0.940	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.996	×0.910	—	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	15.38%	÷0.891	×0.800	—	×0.940	12.99%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 99, 2B 145, 3B 99, K 104, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 22.0 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (9.0 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .648 → .587; ISO .400 → .380; BABIP .636 → .539. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAANew Orleans Baby Cakes · 271 PAwOBA .413 → .313 (−101)K% 19.6% → 26.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.56%	÷0.950	×1.290	—	—	26.57%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.70%	÷1.085	×0.710	—	×0.982	6.88%
HBP% /PA	1.48%	—	×0.980	—	×0.982	1.42%
Singles /BIP	24.18%	÷0.971	×0.900	×0.950	×0.982	20.91%
Doubles /BIP	9.89%	÷0.952	×0.810	×0.950	×0.982	7.85%
Triples /BIP	1.10%	÷0.900	×0.810	×0.950	×0.982	0.92%
Home runs /BIP	6.59%	÷1.100	×0.780	—	×0.982	4.59%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 120, 1B 94, 2B 90, 3B 80, K 90, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .413 → .313; ISO .247 → .176; BABIP .374 → .309. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAACharlotte Knights · 364 PAwOBA .334 → .270 (−64)K% 21.7% → 26.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.70%	÷0.986	×1.200	—	—	26.40%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.81%	÷1.030	×0.690	—	×0.992	7.85%
HBP% /PA	0.82%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	0.77%
Singles /BIP	17.90%	÷1.030	×0.930	×1.043	×0.992	16.73%
Doubles /BIP	11.35%	÷1.077	×0.830	×1.043	×0.992	9.06%
Triples /BIP	1.31%	÷1.150	×0.970	×1.043	×0.992	1.14%
Home runs /BIP	3.49%	÷1.319	×0.840	—	×0.992	2.21%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 164, 1B 106, 2B 115, 3B 130, K 97, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.043.

Result: wOBA .334 → .270; ISO .182 → .138; BABIP .314 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Eddy Alvarez (OGILVIE)	37	35	45	55	60	223/301/353	129	283	3	4	25%	8%	87	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Curtis Pride 2006 · MLB	37	47	46→45	51→55	48	232/298/368	136	299	12	15	26%	8%	88	+0.5	227/300/344	117	318	10	20	29%	9%	84	+0.1	219/298/322	103	313	9	24	30%	10%	77	-0.2
✕Pedro Swann 2007 · AAA	36	48→44	48→50	55→45	42	241/292/388	147	295	14	12	23%	5%	91	+0.6	227/273/348	121	289	12	10	25%	5%	74	-0.5	209/248/310	102	267	10	6	25%	4%	55	-1.1
✕Humberto Cota 2016 · AAA	37	38	45→50	47→30	46	195/264/307	112	246	14	4	27%	8%	63	-1.4	214/280/338	124	283	14	6	28%	8%	75	-0.5	201/268/317	116	266	13	0	28%	8%	66	-0.4
✕Jesus Alberto Vega 2019 · AAA	37	42	43→45	48→40	40	210/261/320	110	280	11	7	29%	5%	63	-1.3	204/254/326	122	300	14	9	35%	6%	62	-1.4	156/198/251	95	230	14	3	38%	4%	21	-1.4
✕Jonathan Aceves 2015 · AAA	37	40	47→50	46→30	43	208/258/334	126	250	16	4	24%	6%	66	-1.1	227/290/339	112	274	12	4	21%	7%	79	-0.2	228/295/332	104	273	11	1	20%	7%	78	-0.2
✕Kelly Stinnett 2007 · MLB	37	46	48→50	47→40	42	234/289/368	134	298	17	5	27%	6%	86	+0.3	206/258/320	114	260	13	6	25%	6%	62	-1.4	153/195/225	72	189	9	0	25%	4%	15	-1.6
✕Tom Prince 2002 · MLB	37	46	48→50	49→45	48	232/301/374	142	264	17	9	20%	7%	91	+0.7	232/312/390	158	258	18	9	18%	8%	99	+1.3	215/311/377	162	240	16	4	18%	9%	97	+0.3
✕Miguel Ojeda 2012 · AAA	37	48→45	43→45	43→45	50	233/294/342	109	267	11	7	18%	8%	80	-0.1	226/280/330	104	281	9	8	22%	6%	73	-0.6	217/268/310	92	274	8	6	23%	5%	61	-1.0
✕Iker Franco 2019 · AAA	38	47	44→50	47→40	45	231/286/340	109	288	12	8	24%	7%	77	-0.3	210/260/333	123	270	14	9	27%	6%	66	-1.1	156/195/247	91	190	13	0	26%	5%	19	-0.9
✕Nyjer Morgan 2016 · MLB	36	47→57	45	53→65	48	232/294/356	124	283	13	15	23%	8%	84	+0.1	235/301/356	121	271	12	20	17%	7%	87	+0.4	232/300/343	111	265	10	26	16%	7%	82	-0.0
✕Drew Butera 2021 · MLB	37	41	43→40	49→40	46	206/271/320	115	267	11	6	26%	8%	68	-1.0	190/260/300	110	267	11	9	32%	7%	59	-1.6	137/214/222	85	196	9	7	34%	6%	23	-2.0
✕Omar Ramirez 2007 · AAA	36	49→47	48→50	51→50	50	244/303/389	145	268	15	10	16%	7%	95	+1.0	241/300/359	118	272	12	12	16%	7%	87	+0.4	249/303/316	67	272	8	13	11%	7%	75	-0.1
✕Carlos M. Rodriguez 2019 · AAA	37	46→42	46→50	47→40	37	226/268/353	127	315	13	5	32%	5%	73	-0.6	207/261/323	116	322	12	6	37%	6%	64	-1.3	178/232/277	99	285	11	0	40%	6%	39	-1.9
✕Miguel Olivo 2016 · MLB	38	46→50	46→60	49→50	38	230/274/361	131	312	14	12	30%	5%	78	-0.3	203/242/318	115	298	12	9	35%	5%	55	-1.9	183/215/296	114	267	12	2	36%	4%	38	-1.7
✕Jose Luis Sandoval 2007 · AAA	37	48→49	47→45	48→40	47	240/295/378	138	273	15	4	18%	6%	90	+0.6	241/288/347	106	279	10	5	17%	6%	80	-0.2	241/286/329	87	279	8	3	16%	5%	74	-0.3
✕Issmael Salas 2019 · AAA	37	48	43→45	45→50	48	231/281/339	108	252	10	6	14%	6%	75	-0.5	233/275/355	122	258	13	6	15%	5%	76	-0.4	233/267/345	112	252	13	1	14%	4%	70	-0.5
✕Flavio Romero 2015 · AAA	35	42→52	41→45	48→60	51	208/288/302	94	265	10	20	24%	10%	70	-0.8	211/291/288	77	272	7	17	23%	10%	68	-1.0	221/301/273	52	277	3	21	20%	9%	65	-0.7
✕Sal Fasano 2009 · MLB	37	42	46→55	46→40	37	211/273/341	130	277	14	5	29%	4%	74	-0.6	204/257/312	108	291	11	9	32%	5%	60	-1.6	167/208/242	75	251	7	7	35%	3%	24	-1.6
✕Curt Casali 2024 · MLB	35	43	43→50	47→30	51	211/304/320	109	285	11	4	28%	10%	81	-0.1	233/322/344	111	290	10	6	22%	10%	93	+0.8	235/335/321	87	290	7	0	19%	11%	92	+0.3
✕Karim Garcia 2013 · AAA	37	48→49	49→60	48→50	43	246/289/394	148	295	17	10	23%	6%	91	+0.6	224/262/366	142	271	19	6	24%	5%	74	-0.5	205/242/331	125	243	18	3	24%	4%	58	-0.9